WTI climbs more than 6%, breaking above $75 as US-Iran war fears intensify.

• WTI crude surged over 6%, climbing back above the $75 level amid heightened market tension.
• Oil prices have shot up as fears grow that the escalating US-Iran conflict could disrupt global supply chains.
• Goldman Sachs suggests the market is currently pricing in roughly an $18 per barrel geopolitical risk premium on crude.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) jumped more than 6% on Tuesday, pushing past the key $75 threshold as the intensifying US–Iran conflict stoked concerns over possible supply disruptions via the Strait of Hormuz.

At the time of writing, the US crude benchmark is hovering near $76.16 — its highest level since June 2025.

Roughly 20% of global oil shipments pass through the Strait of Hormuz, underscoring its status as a critical energy chokepoint. Senior figures from Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) reportedly announced the closure of the strait, warning that any vessel attempting to transit could be “set ablaze.”

Amid escalating security risks, many shipowners have suspended passage through the corridor, with several tankers waiting outside the waterway. In addition, Saudi Aramco has halted operations at its Ras Tanura refinery after a drone strike in the vicinity. The site has a processing capacity of approximately 550,000 barrels per day.

According to a Reuters report on Monday, Goldman Sachs estimates that oil prices currently include an $18 per barrel real-time geopolitical risk premium, based on a note issued Sunday. The bank added that the premium could ease to about $4 per barrel if only half of the Strait of Hormuz’s flows are disrupted for one month.