BTC/USD Forex Signal: Bitcoin Faces Downside Risk as Open Interest Declines

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Bearish Scenario

• Sell BTC/USD with a take-profit target at 60,000.
• Set a stop-loss at 71,000.
• Time horizon: 1–2 days.

Bullish Scenario

• Buy BTC/USD with a take-profit target at 71,000.
• Set a stop-loss at 60,000.

Bitcoin remained under pressure on Thursday as investors stayed cautious and its divergence from the rallying stock market widened. The BTC/USD pair slipped below 68,000, a sharp decline from its year-to-date peak of 126,300.

The pullback came even as US equities extended their strong advance, with the Dow Jones reaching a record high. The decline followed the release of solid US labor market data. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the economy added more than 130,000 jobs, while the unemployment rate eased to 4.3%. However, some analysts cautioned that the figures could be revised lower, as has happened previously.

Indeed, revisions to last year’s employment data revealed that job growth averaged 15,000 per month, significantly below the initially reported 49,000 average.

Bitcoin also weakened amid a continued drop in futures open interest, which has fallen to $45 billion from last year’s peak of over $95 billion—an indication that market participation and demand have cooled.

Additional pressure followed warnings from the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) about the US government’s unsustainable fiscal trajectory. The deficit is projected to rise by $4.7 trillion over the next decade. Increased immigration-related spending, estimated at more than $500 billion, is cited as one contributing factor, while Trump’s tariffs are expected to generate approximately $3 trillion in revenue.

BTC/USD Technical Analysis

On the daily chart, BTC/USD remains in a pronounced downtrend, sliding from its October high of 126,300 to around 67,665. The decline persists despite continued accumulation by large holders.

Technically, Bitcoin is trading below both the 50-day and 100-day Exponential Moving Averages, as well as the Supertrend indicator, reinforcing the bearish bias. The MACD has crossed below the zero line, while the Relative Strength Index hovers near 30, suggesting weak momentum and near-oversold conditions.

The most probable scenario is a continued decline toward the key support level at 60,000. Conversely, a break above the major resistance at 72,000 would negate the bearish outlook and signal the potential for renewed upside momentum.

Sources: Crispus Nyaga