Macquarie has updated its 2026 outlook for gold and silver, pointing to extreme volatility and recent geopolitical and policy-driven shocks as the main catalysts.
Strategist Peter Taylor noted that the bank had previously flagged the risk of gold reaching $5,000 per ounce amid concerns surrounding the Federal Reserve chair—a scenario that ultimately materialized. He also warned that silver was vulnerable to a sharp pullback, given its tendency to gap lower.
Macquarie raised its average gold price forecast for the first quarter of 2026 to $4,590 per ounce from $4,300, while its second-quarter estimate was lifted to $4,300 from $4,200. The bank also increased its full-year 2026 gold forecast to $4,323 per ounce, up from $4,225.
For silver, the Q1 target was raised sharply to $75 from $55, with the 2026 average forecast increased to $62 from $57.
Taylor emphasized that market conditions in January were exceptionally volatile, citing events such as threats of a criminal indictment against the Fed chair by the U.S. Department of Justice, the arrest and extradition of Venezuela’s Maduro, renewed focus on Greenland alongside potential tariffs on some NATO countries, and a buildup of military forces around Iran.
He added that while commodities broadly delivered strong gains, price movements were often detached from underlying fundamentals.
“Overall, this resulted in one of the strongest monthly performances for the commodities complex in recent history,” Taylor said.
Macquarie said it is holding off on revising longer-term forecasts for gold and silver, pointing to the ongoing disconnect between fundamentals and the unusually high volatility in precious metals markets.
Sources: Sam Boughedda
THE ETERNAL SOVEREIGN 
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