Gold saw choppy price action during Thursday’s Asian session, oscillating within a roughly $200 range. Traders are now looking to the U.S. JOLTS Job Openings report and developments on the geopolitical front—particularly U.S.–Iran tensions—for clearer directional cues.
XAU/USD Technical Analysis
The 21-, 50-, 100- and 200-day SMAs are all sloping higher, with the 21-day positioned above the longer-term averages, highlighting a well-established bullish structure. Prices remain above these indicators, confirming that buyers retain control. Initial support is seen at the 21-day SMA near $4,827.45, followed by the 50-day SMA at $4,532.68. The 14-day RSI has eased to a neutral 52.58, suggesting momentum is consolidating after retreating from overbought levels.
The positive alignment of the moving averages favours a buy-on-dips approach while prices hold above the short-term average. A more pronounced correction would bring the 100-day SMA at $4,271.21 into focus, with the 200-day SMA at $3,821.77 reinforcing the broader uptrend. As long as the RSI remains above the 50 midpoint, the bullish bias stays intact, while a sustained break below it could signal scope for a deeper retracement.
Fundamental Analysis
Gold ended Wednesday little changed near $4,950 after choppy two-way trading. The metal initially rebounded sharply, testing the $5,100 area amid uncertainty surrounding the Federal Reserve’s future policy direction under Kevin Warsh, which weighed broadly on the U.S. dollar.
Renewed geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and between Russia and Ukraine also lent support to gold prices, alongside concerns about potential economic data disruptions stemming from the U.S. partial government shutdown that concluded on Tuesday.
Sentiment shifted during the U.S. session after the ISM Services PMI signalled firmer inflation pressures, prompting a rebound in the dollar. At the same time, an intensifying tech-sector sell-off on Wall Street unsettled markets, driving demand for the greenback as a safe haven.
Additional USD strength came from renewed weakness in the Japanese yen amid rising fiscal and political concerns, which pushed USD/JPY higher and further supported the dollar.
The USD rebound triggered a sharp pullback in gold, although buyers stepped back in near the key $4,950 psychological support level.
Early Thursday, gold remains under pressure after once again failing above the $5,000 resistance zone. The U.S. dollar continues to advance, hitting fresh two-week highs against its major peers as risk sentiment deteriorates amid a global technology sell-off.
The decline in global data analytics, professional services, and software stocks followed Anthropic’s launch of plug-ins for its Claude Cowork agent, which raised fresh concerns about AI-driven disruption across these industries, according to Reuters.
Looking ahead, the delayed U.S. JOLTS Job Openings report could offer gold some relief, particularly if it reinforces expectations for two Federal Reserve rate cuts this year. Conversely, an extended sell-off in the Japanese yen could spark another wave of heavy selling pressure in gold.
Sources: Fxstreet
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