Last Updated on 09/11/2026
- Silver rises as oil falls after Trump plays down the chance of near-term military action against Iran.
- Silver pays no yield, and the CME FedWatch tool shows a more than 78% chance of a December rate hike.
- Strong October payrolls (165,000) and lower unemployment (4.1%) could lift the US Dollar and limit Silver’s gains.
Silver (XAG/USD) rose on Monday after two days of losses, trading near $53.00 per troy ounce in the Asian session. Lower oil prices are easing inflation pressures, and that is helping the metal.
Oil fell after US President Donald Trump said more military strikes on Iran are very unlikely, as long as Iran keeps making progress on its nuclear program and the Strait of Hormuz stays open. Trump also said the unpopular Middle East conflict, which drove energy costs higher, played a part in the Republicans’ recent midterm losses.
Reuters reported that Trump told CNN in a phone interview that further military action would probably not be needed if Iran signs a firm deal. He had earlier hinted that major attacks could resume after the midterms, but no large-scale US operations have begun. Iran, for its part, has warned that it will hit back at US and Israeli targets if it is attacked again.
Even so, silver could struggle because it pays no interest and markets expect the Federal Reserve (Fed) to raise rates in December. The CME FedWatch tool puts the chance of another 25-basis-point hike at the December Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting above 78%.
Strong US jobs data is giving the US Dollar a solid boost. Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) rose by 165,000 in October, far above the 65,000 forecast and up from a revised 60,000 in September. The unemployment rate slipped to 4.1%, better than the 4.2% expected. Traders will now look to Tuesday’s US Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Friday’s Producer Price Index (PPI) for more clues about the Fed’s next moves.
US data and Fed speakers in focus as the dollar is repriced
ABN Amro strategists say the first real test of the recent change in Fed expectations, and of the dollar’s related weakness, will come from US data. They note that three US events on Monday will show whether the shift in Fed pricing and the dollar’s downside risks are justified. In their view, the mix of scheduled data and Fed commentary will be key to judging whether markets have gone too far in scaling back expectations of tightening and in betting on further dollar losses.
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