Bitcoin Approaches Strategy’s Cost Basis, Putting $75,500 in Focus

Last Updated on 06/11/2026

Bitcoin reversed its entire post-election rally on Thursday, November 5, falling to approximately $76,306 during U.S. trading hours, down 4.97% for the session. The decline followed an overnight peak of $80,918, marking a sharp intraday reversal exceeding $4,600. Most of the losses occurred within two hours of the U.S. stock market opening.

The selloff erased Wednesday’s recovery, when Bitcoin surged above $81,000 following election results, an 8% oil price decline, and a massive short squeeze. By Thursday lunchtime in New York, those gains had completely disappeared.

At $76,306, Bitcoin remains approximately 39.5% below its October 2025 record high of $126,210.50. The cryptocurrency is also down 11.9% over the past month and 26.5% year over year. Its market capitalization declined to $1.53 trillion, while BTC faces the possibility of recording a fifth consecutive weekly loss.

The broader cryptocurrency market experienced similar pressure. Ether initially climbed to $2,421 overnight before falling below $2,300 as U.S. equities deteriorated. Total crypto market capitalization briefly increased 5.1% to $2.79 trillion before surrendering those gains.

Bitcoin Remains Closely Tied to Technology Stocks

Thursday’s price action reinforced the view that Bitcoin increasingly behaves like a leveraged extension of the Nasdaq rather than a defensive asset. While the Nasdaq Composite suffered a substantial decline and semiconductor stocks plunged, gold advanced above $4,120.

Until this relationship changes, Bitcoin’s near-term direction may depend more heavily on semiconductor performance, broader equity sentiment, and upcoming U.S. employment data than on blockchain activity.

The immediate technical battleground lies between $75,600 and $76,466, where the election-night low, 200-day exponential moving average, and lower Bollinger Band converge. Maintaining this support zone could create an opportunity for Bitcoin to recover toward $82,000. Conversely, a daily close below this region could expose the $73,188 level.

U.S. Market Opening Accelerates Bitcoin’s Decline

Bitcoin initially maintained its position above $80,000 throughout Asian and European trading sessions. However, weakness in semiconductor stocks triggered an early retreat, pushing BTC below the $79,800 support level and subsequently beneath its 20-day and 50-day exponential moving averages.

The selling intensified following the U.S. market opening, as Qualcomm, AMD, Nvidia, and Micron shares weakened sharply. Bitcoin subsequently dropped more than $4,000 within two hours, breaking successive psychological support levels around $79,000, $78,000, and $77,000.

The rapid, cascading decline suggests that leveraged derivatives positions played a significant role. Stop-loss orders and forced liquidations likely amplified the initial equity-driven selloff, while the absence of a meaningful recovery above $77,000 indicated limited buying interest near the session’s lows.

$718.5 Million in Liquidations Highlights Excessive Leverage

Crypto liquidation data illustrates the magnitude of Thursday’s market stress. Approximately $718.5 million in leveraged positions were liquidated over 24 hours, including $595.54 million in long positions, representing 82.9% of total liquidations.

More than 139,000 traders were affected, while the four-hour period surrounding the U.S. market opening accounted for $513.13 million in liquidations. Bitcoin recorded approximately $213.31 million in liquidations, followed by Ether at $122.13 million.

The imbalance between liquidated longs and shorts highlights how aggressively traders positioned themselves following Wednesday’s rally. Bitcoin’s move above $81,000 triggered substantial short liquidations, attracting momentum traders and encouraging additional leverage. Thursday’s reversal subsequently punished those late bullish positions.

Although the liquidation event removed considerable excess leverage from the market, Bitcoin’s recovery ultimately depends on whether spot buyers return to absorb selling pressure. Without stronger underlying demand, a renewed break below $75,600 could accelerate losses through relatively thin liquidity.

Bitcoin Mirrors Nasdaq Volatility as Gold Outperforms During Market Turmoil

Bitcoin’s Thursday selloff highlighted its growing sensitivity to technology stocks, with BTC declining 4.97% alongside a sharp downturn in U.S. equities. The Nasdaq Composite dropped 4.30% to 24,630.58, entering correction territory after falling more than 10% from its October 6 record. Meanwhile, the Nasdaq-100 declined as much as 5.7%, and the PHLX Semiconductor Index plunged 11%, marking its steepest daily loss since March 2020.

Major semiconductor stocks experienced substantial losses, with AMD falling as much as 16%, Nvidia 8.3%, Micron 16.8%, and Qualcomm 8.9% following disappointing guidance. Bitcoin’s decline closely tracked the Nasdaq’s movements, accelerating after the U.S. market opened and reaching its intraday low alongside the technology selloff.

The relationship has strengthened over recent sessions. Bitcoin declined alongside semiconductor stocks on Tuesday, rebounded with equities on Wednesday, and reversed again on Thursday. This repeated alignment reinforces Bitcoin’s positioning as a high-beta risk asset exposed to technology-sector volatility and broader investor sentiment.

Institutional portfolio exposure provides a structural explanation. Investors holding Bitcoin through spot ETFs frequently maintain substantial Nasdaq allocations, making BTC vulnerable to broad portfolio deleveraging. Additionally, publicly traded Bitcoin miners and treasury companies increasingly overlap with AI infrastructure investments, exposing them to both cryptocurrency volatility and technology-sector risks.

Political developments have further complicated the outlook. Concerns about potential data-center restrictions in several U.S. states threaten AI hosting businesses that some Bitcoin miners increasingly depend upon. This creates additional pressure on mining equities and sentiment throughout the cryptocurrency market.

For traders, semiconductor performance and Nasdaq-100 futures have become important indicators of Bitcoin’s immediate direction. When technology stocks experience significant volatility, BTC increasingly responds to equity-market movements rather than its independent blockchain fundamentals.

Bitcoin Falls as Gold Strengthens, Challenging Its Safe-Haven Narrative

Thursday’s market divergence delivered another challenge to Bitcoin’s digital-gold narrative. Spot gold advanced approximately 1.2%–2% to between $4,120 and $4,134.83 per ounce, extending Wednesday’s 3.4% rally. Bitcoin, meanwhile, declined 4.97%, highlighting the contrasting behavior of the two assets during market stress.

The broader macroeconomic environment initially appeared supportive of both assets. The 10-year Treasury yield declined more than six basis points to 4.831%, while the two-year yield fell over eight basis points to 4.50%. The U.S. dollar also weakened, creating conditions traditionally favorable for non-yielding assets.

Gold responded positively as investors sought protection from equity-market volatility. The VIX surged as high as 23.46, representing a 41.6% increase from Wednesday’s close of 16.61. Institutional investors, central banks, and sovereign funds continued to treat bullion as a defensive portfolio asset.

Bitcoin behaved differently because its marginal market participants remain more sensitive to leverage, liquidity, and risk appetite. During equity selloffs, leveraged traders and growth-oriented funds frequently reduce exposure to volatile assets, placing BTC under additional selling pressure.

At approximately $4,120 gold and $76,306 Bitcoin, one BTC purchased around 18.5 ounces of gold. Bitcoin’s purchasing power relative to bullion has deteriorated significantly since its October 2025 peak, reinforcing gold’s relative strength.

The divergence carries important implications for Bitcoin’s near-term outlook. Falling Treasury yields and a weaker dollar alone may not generate sufficient demand if investors remain unwilling to take on additional risk.

If Friday’s U.S. payrolls report disappoints expectations while equities stabilize, both gold and Bitcoin could recover. However, stronger employment figures that push yields higher and trigger another equity selloff could leave gold relatively resilient while Bitcoin faces renewed downside pressure.

For long-term investors, Bitcoin may retain potential as a hedge against currency debasement over extended periods. However, its short-term behavior increasingly resembles a technology-oriented risk asset rather than a reliable hedge against equity-market declines.

Bitcoin ETF Demand Remains Fragile as BlackRock Outflows Offset Fidelity Buying

U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $74.6 million in net inflows on Wednesday, November 4, ending a three-session withdrawal streak. However, the modest recovery concealed substantial divergence among major issuers. Fidelity’s FBTC attracted $236.72 million, while BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) experienced $201.24 million in outflows. Bitwise BITB added $15.21 million, ARK’s ARKB received $19.9 million, and Invesco BTCO recorded $3.98 million in inflows. Seven other funds reported no net flows.

Wednesday’s positive balance offered limited relief after substantial withdrawals earlier in the week. Bitcoin ETFs experienced $643.2 million in outflows on October 30, followed by $398.6 million on November 2 and $115.6 million on November 3. These withdrawals totaled approximately $1.16 billion across three sessions, while cumulative five-session net outflows reached $1.07 billion, the largest since July 1.

November’s ETF flows remained negative by $439.61 million after three trading sessions. Total net assets across U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs stood at $102.26 billion, equivalent to approximately 6.35% of Bitcoin’s market capitalization, highlighting the significant influence institutional investment products can exert on BTC price movements.

The relationship between ETF flows and Bitcoin’s price action remains evident. Withdrawals accelerated as BTC declined from the mid-$80,000 region toward $75,600, while Wednesday’s inflows coincided with its recovery above $80,000. Thursday’s equity-market selloff and Bitcoin’s 4.97% decline suggest that ETF demand may struggle to recover.

Fidelity and BlackRock’s contrasting flows provide additional insight into institutional positioning. FBTC’s substantial inflows alongside IBIT’s withdrawals suggest differences in investor behavior, potentially reflecting discretionary accumulation at Fidelity and systematic portfolio adjustments among BlackRock investors.

Ether ETFs also offered a modest positive signal, attracting $53 million on Wednesday and ending a seven-session outflow streak. However, the subsequent decline in Ether below $2,300 likely weakened sentiment.

For Bitcoin’s recovery to become sustainable, ETF demand would need to strengthen considerably. Several consecutive sessions of $300 million–$500 million in net inflows could provide a more convincing indication of renewed institutional accumulation.

BlackRock’s IBIT Faces Nearly $1 Billion in Withdrawals Across Four Sessions

BlackRock’s IBIT remains a critical indicator of institutional Bitcoin demand because of its position as the largest spot Bitcoin ETF. The fund experienced four consecutive sessions of withdrawals totaling approximately $935.2 million, including $405.3 million on November 2 alone.

IBIT held approximately $62.3 billion in assets under management as of November 5, while cumulative net inflows since launch reached $65.61 billion. The difference highlights the substantial impact of Bitcoin’s price decline on the fund’s asset value, although cumulative flows and current assets alone cannot establish investors’ aggregate realized or unrealized returns.

Bitcoin’s 39.5% decline from its October 2025 record high has placed considerable pressure on investors who accumulated exposure during the second half of the year. Previous entry prices may become psychological resistance as some holders seek to reduce losses or exit near breakeven.

IBIT’s persistent withdrawals also reflect broader portfolio adjustments. Financial advisors and institutional model portfolios frequently rebalance exposure across growth-oriented assets, meaning Bitcoin ETFs can experience selling alongside technology stocks during periods of risk reduction.

Because IBIT dominates the spot Bitcoin ETF market, its flow direction significantly influences aggregate institutional demand. Wednesday’s overall ETF inflows despite IBIT withdrawals demonstrate that other issuers can temporarily offset its weakness, but sustained market recovery would likely benefit from renewed positive IBIT flows.

The latest withdrawal streak reinforces the view that institutional ETF demand has not yet established a reliable support mechanism around $76,000. A sustained reversal in IBIT flows would provide a meaningful indication that institutional sentiment is improving.

Strategy’s Bitcoin Cost Basis Near $75,500 Creates a Critical Market Reference

While ETF investors reduced exposure, corporate and large-holder accumulation continued to provide underlying support. Strategy added 811 BTC in its latest reported weekly purchase, maintaining its aggressive Bitcoin accumulation strategy.

The company’s reported holdings exceeded 815,061 BTC in April following a purchase of 34,164 coins valued at approximately $2.54 billion. Its average acquisition cost stood at approximately $75,527 per Bitcoin at that reporting point.

This cost basis has become an important psychological reference for traders. With Bitcoin trading around $76,306, Strategy’s position remained close to its reported average acquisition price. The election-night low of $75,600 approached that threshold, reinforcing the importance of the $75,500 region as a market sentiment indicator.

However, Strategy’s average cost does not automatically establish a technical support level or guarantee that the company will defend Bitcoin prices. Its ability to continue accumulating depends on financing conditions, capital-market access, and management decisions.

Strategy shares also illustrate the leverage embedded in corporate Bitcoin exposure. The stock advanced 11.37% to $103.05 during Wednesday’s recovery but remains highly sensitive to Bitcoin’s movements. A sustained decline below Strategy’s average acquisition cost could intensify concerns about its balance-sheet exposure and potentially affect investor confidence in its capital-raising strategy.

Large-holder accumulation offers another source of potential support. Whale wallets reportedly added approximately 60,000 BTC during October, valued at around $4.8 billion at the time. Although this accumulation failed to prevent Bitcoin’s decline, it suggests that some deep-pocketed investors continue to view the $75,000–$77,000 region as attractive.

Tether also disclosed Bitcoin holdings of approximately 150,000 BTC, strengthening its position among the cryptocurrency’s largest non-ETF corporate holders. Meanwhile, the stablecoin market expanded to approximately $290.3 billion, with Stripe introducing U.S. dollar stablecoin payouts across more than 160 markets.

Growing stablecoin supply represents potential liquidity for future cryptocurrency purchases, although it does not necessarily translate into immediate Bitcoin demand.

Ultimately, corporate accumulation and whale buying provide a potential foundation for Bitcoin’s recovery rather than an immediate catalyst. Their support may help absorb selling pressure, but it remains insufficient to offset a combination of equity-market weakness, ETF withdrawals, and forced liquidations.

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