WTI Slips Toward $101.00 as OPEC+ Production Quotas and Middle East Diplomatic Efforts Weigh on Prices

Last Updated on 02/11/2026

• OPEC+ decided to keep oil production quotas unchanged for December, aiming to maintain stability in global supply.
• Diplomatic discussions between the US and regional parties are ongoing in Qatar, reducing near-term concerns over a wider Middle East conflict.
• President Trump postponed possible military action against Iran while negotiations continue, easing geopolitical risk premiums in crude oil markets.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil fell to around $101.20 per barrel during Asian trading on Monday, ending a three-day winning streak. The decline followed OPEC+’s decision to maintain existing production targets for December, easing concerns over potential supply constraints.

According to the group’s official statement, December production quotas will remain at September’s levels. Saudi Arabia’s allocation stands at 10.478 million barrels per day (bpd), while Russia and Iraq are assigned 9.949 million bpd and 4.431 million bpd, respectively.

Meanwhile, oil markets remained sensitive to developments in Middle East diplomacy, as investors assessed the possibility of a ceasefire alongside renewed risks of US military action against Iran. Qatari and Iranian officials continued negotiations for a third consecutive day, seeking an agreement to end the conflict ahead of the US midterm elections.

Iran has warned that further attacks could trigger retaliatory strikes against US and Israeli interests across neighboring countries. However, President Donald Trump indicated that Washington would avoid launching new attacks on Iran before the elections, citing progress in negotiations with Tehran, while leaving open the possibility of future military action.

Beyond geopolitical developments, Rabobank analysts highlighted growing vulnerabilities in physical oil markets. They warned that renewed escalation could directly disrupt crude supplies, particularly through critical energy infrastructure and shipping routes. Furthermore, the so-called “Hormuz Shuttle” continues to facilitate oil transportation, but elevated tanker freight rates, insurance premiums, and logistical expenses are making physical crude significantly more expensive than futures contracts.

Overall, WTI prices face competing pressures from stable OPEC+ production targets, ongoing diplomatic efforts, and persistent vulnerabilities in global oil transportation.