Last Updated on 15/09/2026
- Silver extends losses as higher oil prices and persistent inflation strengthen expectations for a Federal Reserve rate increase.
- CME FedWatch data shows the probability of a Fed rate hike has climbed above 92% following stronger-than-expected August inflation figures.
- Rising US Treasury yields, with the 10-year yield approaching 5%, continue to weigh on non-yielding assets such as Silver.
Silver (XAG/USD) declined for a second consecutive session, trading near $63.20 per troy ounce during Tuesday’s Asian session. The precious metal remains under pressure as elevated energy prices fuel inflation concerns and reinforce expectations that the US Federal Reserve may tighten monetary policy further.
Higher oil prices have increased worries about inflationary pressures, prompting markets to price in a greater likelihood of additional Fed action. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, traders now see more than a 92% chance of a rate hike, up sharply from around 60% a week earlier.
Adding to the bearish outlook, recent US inflation data showed consumer prices accelerated in August, while core inflation posted its strongest monthly increase in four months. At the same time, the benchmark US 10-year Treasury yield climbed toward the 5% level amid inflation and fiscal concerns, reducing the appeal of non-interest-bearing assets such as Silver.
TD Securities Highlights Potential CTA-Driven Volatility
TD Securities noted that its latest Commodity Trading Advisor (CTA) positioning model suggests trend-following funds currently maintain only a modest net-long exposure to Silver. This leaves significant room for position adjustments as market conditions evolve.
The firm’s analysis outlines several possible scenarios, including a sharp selloff, a moderate decline, or a broadly sideways market. Under each outcome, CTA activity could differ substantially, potentially amplifying price movements and contributing to increased volatility in the Silver market over the coming months.
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