WTI Holds Above $82.50 as UK-Russia Tensions Escalate

Last Updated on 28/08/2026

• WTI could gain further support as tensions between Russia and Ukraine continue to escalate.
• Attacks on Russian refining facilities are raising concerns over disruptions to global crude oil and fuel exports.
• A revenue-sharing agreement between Iran and Oman has improved the outlook for supply flows through the Strait of Hormuz, although a near-term reopening remains uncertain.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices edged lower on Friday during the Asian session, trading near $82.70 per barrel after posting gains over the previous two sessions. Despite the pullback, escalating tensions between Russia and Ukraine could help support oil prices as market focus shifts away from developments in the Middle East.

Russian President Vladimir Putin recently indicated that peace talks with Ukraine have reached an impasse, signaling the possibility of further military escalation. At the same time, ongoing Ukrainian attacks on Russian refineries and port facilities continue to disrupt key energy infrastructure, raising concerns about Russia’s ability to maintain exports of both crude oil and refined petroleum products.

Even so, WTI remains on track for a weekly decline as traders respond to more constructive developments in the Middle East. Sentiment has improved following reports of better supply prospects through the Strait of Hormuz, supported by a new revenue-sharing arrangement between Iran and Oman concerning the strategic waterway. However, Iranian authorities have clarified that the agreement does not guarantee an immediate or complete reopening of the strait, leaving uncertainty over future energy shipments.

Oil Market Outlook

Analysts at MUFG believe the recent recovery in crude prices could signal the beginning of another upward move in the energy market. However, they note that the outlook largely depends on the volume of shipping traffic successfully passing through the Strait of Hormuz. While exact flow levels remain difficult to verify, they argue that current oil prices suggest higher-than-expected transit volumes, indicating that the market is increasingly pricing in the resilience of supply flows through this critical global energy corridor.