Gold Returns to Yesterday’s Peak, with the Next Six Candles Likely to Be Decisive

Gold prices drew renewed attention as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East intensified. On Thursday, the United States carried out a new round of airstrikes against Iran, prompting Tehran to retaliate with attacks on targets across the Persian Gulf. The latest exchange of military action has raised concerns over the stability of the already fragile ceasefire agreement between the two nations.

Since the framework truce was signed in June, periodic flare-ups followed by temporary pauses in fighting have become a familiar pattern, casting doubt on the durability of the accord. Washington and Tehran have repeatedly accused one another of breaching the agreement.

Earlier in the week, gold futures came under heavy pressure after President Donald Trump declared that the ceasefire was effectively “over” and stated that he no longer wished to engage with Iran. Speaking to reporters following a NATO summit in Türkiye on Wednesday, Trump’s remarks contributed to a sharp sell-off that drove gold futures down to an intraday low of $4,032.56, narrowly holding above key support at $4,030.51. The metal later recovered some losses and settled at $4,082.24.

Gold also found support from the minutes of the Federal Reserve’s June policy meeting. The report revealed a divide among policymakers regarding the need for further interest-rate increases, fueling market expectations that borrowing costs could be reduced later in the year. Such a scenario is generally favorable for gold, as lower rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets.

At the same time, the Fed minutes highlighted ongoing concerns about stubborn inflationary pressures. Inflation has remained elevated since the outbreak of the U.S.-Iran conflict in late February and continues to run well above the central bank’s 2% target. As a result, policymakers may be reluctant to move aggressively toward rate cuts despite growing expectations for monetary easing.

Key Technical Levels to Monitor

On Thursday, gold futures opened at $4,085.90 and advanced to an intraday high of $4,145.40, briefly surpassing the resistance level that capped gains the previous day. After retreating to a low of $4,063.40, prices rebounded and were trading around $4,138 at the time of writing. Despite the recovery, questions remain about the sustainability of the move, given the broader bearish factors that continue to weigh on the market.

Daily Chart Outlook

On the daily timeframe, gold futures are attempting to remain above the important support level at $4,125.61. However, the metal continues to encounter strong selling pressure beneath the immediate resistance at $4,144.72. Concerns over energy-driven inflation remain a key headwind, while U.S. Treasury yields have stayed close to multi-week highs and eurozone bond yields are hovering near one-month peaks. These elevated yields have been supported by heightened geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, limiting gold’s upside potential.

1-Hour Chart Outlook

From an intraday perspective, gold has managed to hold above the 200-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $4,117.92 for the past several hours, indicating that near-term support remains intact. Nevertheless, the metal has struggled to establish a foothold above the key resistance level at $4,144.72.

The emergence of a bearish hourly candle has pushed prices back toward $4,137, suggesting that selling interest has increased during the past six hours. Adding to the cautious outlook, the 100-period EMA remains below the 200-period EMA, maintaining a bearish crossover on the hourly chart. This technical setup indicates that downside risks persist unless buyers can secure a sustained break above resistance in the sessions ahead.