Gold Turns Lower as US-Iran Uncertainty Persists, Death Cross Signals Further Weakness

Gold erased part of its two-day recovery from seven-month lows as sellers returned ahead of the key US Nonfarm Payrolls report. A firmer US Dollar, supported by renewed Middle East tensions and expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep rates higher for longer, continued to weigh on the precious metal. With the daily RSI remaining bearish and a Death Cross still in effect, gold retains a negative technical outlook and remains vulnerable to selling pressure on rallies.

XAU/USD Technical Overview

On the daily chart, XAU/USD is trading around $4,068.30, extending its decline and remaining firmly below key short- and medium-term moving averages, which keeps the near-term outlook bearish. Gold is currently trading beneath the 21-day SMA at $4,240.86, the 50-day SMA at $4,453.85, and the 200-day SMA at $4,479.26. Meanwhile, the 100-day SMA at $4,674.59 remains significantly higher, highlighting strong overhead resistance and reinforcing the broader downtrend. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers near 36, signaling ongoing bearish momentum while still staying above oversold territory.

Adding to the negative outlook, gold confirmed a bearish Death Cross on Friday after the 50-day SMA closed below the 200-day SMA on a weekly basis, a technical signal often associated with prolonged downside risks.

On the upside, immediate resistance is located at the 21-day SMA near $4,240.86, followed by the 50-day SMA at $4,453.85 and the 200-day SMA at $4,479.26. Together, these levels form a significant resistance zone that buyers would need to overcome to improve the technical outlook. A decisive move above this cluster could pave the way toward the 100-day SMA around $4,674.59. Until then, gold remains exposed to further weakness, with market participants closely monitoring for the emergence of fresh support levels below the current $4,068 area.

Fundamental Analysis Summary

Gold bears are regaining control as the US Dollar (USD) continues to head toward its strongest monthly performance in nearly a year. This comes amid renewed uncertainty surrounding the ceasefire between the United States and Iran, as well as doubts over whether peace talks will resume.

Over the weekend, both sides exchanged strikes and accused each other of violating the ceasefire before eventually agreeing to stop retaliatory attacks and hold negotiations in Qatar on Tuesday.

Despite emerging optimism around diplomatic talks and a pullback in oil prices, markets remain cautious and continue to favor the US dollar—the world’s reserve currency—over gold.

At the same time, gold is also under pressure from rising expectations of further US Federal Reserve interest rate hikes, with markets pricing in at least two increases before year-end.

Looking ahead, attention will shift beyond geopolitics to US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data due Thursday, a key indicator of labor market strength and a major signal for the Fed’s policy direction.

Since gold typically performs better in lower interest rate environments, upcoming Fed guidance is expected to play a crucial role in shaping bullion’s trajectory.

Earlier in the week, traders will also closely monitor the European Central Bank’s annual forum in Sintra, Portugal. A highlight will be Wednesday’s policy panel featuring Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, following his unexpectedly hawkish tone at the beginning of the month.