Fresh negotiations between the United States and Iran were abruptly cancelled, reviving concerns about whether the recently agreed ceasefire can hold.
The talks had been planned for Friday in Switzerland and were intended to continue discussions on Iran’s nuclear program under a memorandum of understanding aimed at ending recent hostilities. However, they were called off soon after U.S. Vice President JD Vance withdrew from the meeting.
Iranian state-linked media said Tehran is seeking stronger proof that Washington is fully honoring the agreement before agreeing to resume negotiations. While the cancellation does not automatically signal a breakdown in the peace process, it underscores that significant mistrust remains between both sides.
Oil markets reacted negatively, with prices declining again in London trading on Friday and heading for their steepest weekly loss in months. Earlier optimism around the U.S.–Iran understanding had raised expectations of additional oil supply returning to global markets.
Both major benchmarks are now on track to fall nearly 10% for the week, trading close to their lowest levels since early March. The conflict between the two countries initially escalated in late February.
A key element of the agreement involves the gradual reopening of the Strait of Hormuz—an essential route for about one-fifth of global oil and LNG flows—which has been largely disrupted during the conflict.
Still, investors remain cautious that any renewed escalation could tighten energy supply, revive inflation pressures, and increase volatility across global financial markets.
At the same time, a more hawkish shift among major central banks suggests policymakers are increasingly focused on controlling inflation, even if it limits support for risk assets such as precious metals.
Recent policy meetings have reinforced this tone. The European Central Bank delivered its first rate hike since 2023, followed by the Bank of Japan, which raised borrowing costs to their highest level since 1995.
Both institutions pointed to inflation risks linked to potential energy disruptions from instability around the Strait of Hormuz as a key justification for tighter policy.
In the United States, the Federal Reserve left rates unchanged but signaled a stronger tightening bias ahead, with nine officials projecting further hikes this year. The latest statement under new Chair Kevin Warsh emphasized “price stability” and dropped earlier references to maximum employment.
Similarly, the Bank of England held rates steady but maintained a hawkish voting split despite softer inflation and labor data, according to Barclays analysts.
Turning to gold, futures have shown a sustained downward trajectory after peaking at $5,643.29, with a steep decline forming since January 2026.
Despite a brief rebound toward $4,577.30, prices have since fallen to a low of $4,046.20 and were last trading near $4,173.25. This keeps the market vulnerable to further downside, particularly if it breaks below the 20-day EMA around $3,885, especially amid renewed geopolitical uncertainty following the postponed talks.
Technical Levels to Watch
Monthly chart:
Gold futures remain in a broad downtrend, having broken below the 9 EMA ($4,368). The next major support is the 20 EMA near $3,885, and a break below this level could accelerate selling pressure.
Weekly chart:
Prices opened the week at $4,289.40, reached a high of $4,403.60 and a low of $4,139.20, and are now trading below the 50 EMA ($4,264). A bearish crossover has formed, with shorter-term EMAs trading below longer-term ones, leaving the market vulnerable to a move toward support around $4,124.
Daily chart:
After opening at $4,207.47, gold moved between $4,216.90 and $4,139.20, currently trading below the 200 EMA ($4,305.84). Multiple EMAs have turned bearish, reinforcing downside momentum and leaving $4,124 as the immediate level to watch.
Friday’s closing price will likely be important in determining near-term direction, though weekend geopolitical developments—particularly shifts in U.S. policy—could still influence sentiment.
Overall, a decisive break below $4,124 could trigger accelerated selling over the short term, although confirmation will depend heavily on where the market settles into the weekly close.
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