GrainCorp shares plunge nearly 20% after weak earnings outlook

Shares of Australia’s GrainCorp (ASX: GNC) fell to four-year lows on Monday after the company issued a weaker earnings outlook for fiscal 2026, citing depressed global grain prices and continued pressure on export margins.

The grain handler forecast underlying EBITDA of A$200 million to A$240 million for FY26, down from A$308 million a year earlier, while underlying net profit after tax is expected to come in between A$20 million and A$50 million, compared with A$87 million in FY25.

GrainCorp’s Sydney-listed shares dropped as much as 19.3% to A$5.81, their lowest level since November 2021.

The company said global grain markets remain constrained by cyclical oversupply and subdued pricing, despite a strong winter harvest along Australia’s east coast. Slower grower selling and export margins at multi-year lows are also expected to weigh on earnings this year.

GrainCorp anticipates grain receivals of 11.0 million to 12.0 million tonnes in FY26, compared with 13.3 million tonnes last year, while exports are forecast at 5.5 million to 6.5 million tonnes.

The company added that it is stepping up cost-control efforts while continuing to maintain service levels.

Sources: Investing