Last Updated on 25/09/2026
Bitcoin traded at $83,942.62 at 10 a.m. ET on Thursday, down $1,743.44 from the same time a day earlier, with the bond market emerging as the main catalyst behind the decline. The cryptocurrency opened at $84,370.41, 2.1% below Wednesday’s opening level, before falling to $83,462.29 by 7:33 a.m. ET as U.S. traders entered the market. Over the previous 24 hours, BTC-USD had fallen 2.74%, while spot trading volume reached $45.05 billion, 19.47% higher than the previous day. The decline was therefore accompanied by a notable increase in trading activity.
The pressure originated outside the cryptocurrency market. The 10-year Treasury yield climbed to 5.15% on Thursday, its highest level since July 2007, while the 30-year yield reached 5.446%, a level not seen since June 2004. On Wednesday alone, the 10-year yield jumped 15 basis points from 4.96% to 5.11% following stronger-than-expected September business data. With government bonds now offering yields above 5%, Bitcoin, which generates no coupon or cash flow, faces a significantly higher opportunity cost.
That shift helps explain why Bitcoin’s latest rally lost momentum. BTC surged from around $75,000 in mid-September to above $87,000 on September 21 and 22, marking its first move into that territory since January. The rally then reversed sharply on Wednesday, sending Bitcoin from $87,200 to as low as $83,500, while Thursday’s decline kept the cryptocurrency below $84,000 for much of the U.S. morning session.
Despite the pullback, Bitcoin’s broader performance remains positive. The cryptocurrency has gained 9.52% over the past seven days, 4.59% over 30 days, 29.99% over 60 days and 39.09% over 90 days. Its market capitalization stands at approximately $1.68 trillion, with 20.09 million BTC in circulation. The broader trend that lifted Bitcoin from its summer lows remains intact, but the cost of holding the asset has increased significantly.
The key technical question now centers on the $84,000-$85,000 area. If that zone holds, the September rally could regain momentum toward $96,700. A sustained break lower could instead expose Bitcoin to a move toward $77,000. Spot Bitcoin ETFs have absorbed $2.65 billion over five sessions, providing an important source of demand that could offset the impact of rising yields. If ETF inflows remain strong while Treasury yields stabilize, the current decline could develop into a higher low. However, continued yield increases combined with weaker ETF demand could trigger further deleveraging.
Other market factors, including Strategy’s 846,000-BTC treasury and Friday’s $16 billion options expiry, add to the broader battle between higher discount rates and institutional demand.
Real Yields, Rather Than Inflation, Drove the Selloff
The composition of Wednesday’s Treasury selloff is particularly important for Bitcoin. According to the Treasury’s daily real-yield curve, the 10-year real yield rose from 2.63% to 2.76% in a single session. That accounted for 13 of the 15 basis points added to the nominal 10-year yield. Meanwhile, 10-year inflation compensation, measured by the difference between nominal and real yields, increased only 2 basis points, from 2.33% to 2.35%.
This distinction is significant. If investors had been primarily concerned about accelerating inflation, inflation expectations would likely have risen more sharply, potentially supporting Bitcoin’s role as an alternative store of value. Instead, real Treasury yields increased substantially while inflation expectations barely moved. Investors were therefore demanding greater inflation-adjusted compensation for holding government debt, creating a tougher hurdle for assets that do not generate income.
The catalyst appeared to be stronger economic growth rather than higher prices. The S&P Global composite PMI for September rose to 58.4 from 56.0, while the services reading reached 58.7 and manufacturing climbed to 57.0. The figures represented the strongest overall expansion in the survey since July 2021. A stronger economy gives the Federal Reserve less incentive to ease policy and prompted investors to reassess the expected path of interest rates.
Bitcoin responded almost immediately. As the 10-year Treasury yield moved above 5.05% shortly after the PMI release, BTC lost its hold above $86,000. By the end of Wednesday, when the Treasury yield had reached 5.11%, Bitcoin had fallen to around $83,500. The continued rise to 5.15% on Thursday kept the cryptocurrency under pressure.
The relationship between real yields and Bitcoin has therefore become an important market indicator. A decline in the 10-year real yield below 2.65% could ease some of the pressure and bring the $87,000 area back into focus. Conversely, a move toward 2.85%-2.90% would point to a more prolonged period of restrictive monetary conditions and could put the $84,000 support level at risk.
A stronger U.S. dollar is adding to the pressure. The U.S. Dollar Index reached 100.80 on Wednesday, its highest level in two months, while EUR/USD fell below 1.1390 on Thursday. A stronger dollar can tighten global financial conditions, while Bitcoin has historically shown an inverse relationship with the greenback during rate-driven market moves. Gold also declined 0.56% to $4,293 an ounce, suggesting that the selling pressure is affecting a broader group of non-yielding assets rather than being limited to cryptocurrencies.
For Bitcoin traders, movements in Treasury real yields over the coming week could therefore prove more important than many on-chain indicators.
Bitcoin’s September Rally: From $75,000 to $87,400 and Back
Understanding Bitcoin’s recent rally provides context for the current pullback. September began with a three-week streak of ETF inflows totaling $3.8 billion, which ended on September 5 and represented the strongest such run of 2026. The strongest single-day inflow during that period reached $730.9 million on September 3.
Momentum subsequently weakened. The following week saw $462.7 million in net ETF outflows, including $450.3 million in redemptions on September 15.
Bitcoin’s price followed the shift in flows, falling to around $75,000 on September 15 and 16. The decline came after the Federal Reserve raised rates and Washington delivered a setback for crypto market-structure legislation. The Fed increased its target range to 3.75%-4.00% on September 16, its first rate hike since 2023, while the rejection of the CLARITY Act removed a regulatory development that investors had been anticipating.
The recovery was subsequently rapid and heavily influenced by leverage. Bitcoin reclaimed $80,000 before breaking through a trading range that had constrained prices since August. On September 21, BTC climbed from a Sunday close near $81,159 through $85,000, its first move above that level since late January, before extending into the $86,000-$87,000 range. Intraday highs on September 21 and 22 reached approximately $87,300-$87,400 on major exchanges.
The $80,000-$82,000 area was important not only technically but also because significant short positions had accumulated there during months of range-bound trading between $76,000 and $82,000. Once Bitcoin moved above $82,000, successive short-liquidation clusters around $82,000, $84,000 and $85,000 triggered additional buying pressure. The resulting short squeeze accelerated the move higher.
Spot demand also contributed, making the rally more than simply a derivatives-driven move. Monday’s $998.95 million in spot ETF inflows marked the largest one-day total in 11 months, while Strategy also financed a new Bitcoin purchase. Total cryptocurrency market capitalization subsequently returned above $3 trillion on several market trackers.
The decline from $87,400 to $83,462 represents a roughly 32% retracement of the advance from $75,000. That remains within the range of a typical consolidation following a rapid squeeze. A 50% retracement would place Bitcoin near $81,200, while the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement sits around $79,700, close to Strategy’s latest average purchase price of $79,670.
Those levels could become increasingly important if the correction deepens. For now, Bitcoin remains in the upper portion of the trading range established during September.
Leverage Is Being Cleared From Both Directions
Bitcoin’s derivatives market has experienced sharp liquidations on both the upside and downside, helping reshape positioning for the next move.
The first wave occurred during the September 21 breakout. Short covering helped push Bitcoin from approximately $80,300 to $85,134, while $262.3 million in short positions were liquidated within a single 60-minute period. Total crypto liquidations that day exceeded $756 million, including around $650 million in short positions, affecting more than 136,000 traders.
The reversal came on Wednesday. When Bitcoin dropped below $84,000 following the PMI release, long positions absorbed much of the damage, with approximately $280 million in long liquidations recorded during the session. Traders who entered leveraged positions around $86,000-$87,000 were caught by the sharp rise in Treasury yields and forced to exit near the lows.
The two-way liquidation cycle has two important effects. First, it reduces excessive leverage. After roughly $650 million in shorts were liquidated during the rally and another $280 million in longs were cleared during the decline, fewer heavily leveraged positions remain concentrated around individual price levels.
Second, the moves demonstrate how sensitive leveraged traders have become to macroeconomic data. When the 10-year Treasury yield moves 15 basis points in one day, leveraged perpetual-futures positions can face liquidation following relatively modest moves in Bitcoin. In this environment, the derivatives market is increasingly reacting to movements in the bond market.
The distinction between ETF investors and futures traders is also important. Someone who bought IBIT near Bitcoin’s $87,000 peak faces a paper loss but does not face a margin call or automatic liquidation. A leveraged futures trader entering at the same price may already have been forced out. This difference means ETF demand can provide more persistent support during corrections, while leveraged futures positions can accelerate downside moves.
The main risk is renewed leverage. If traders rebuild large long positions during a rebound toward $86,000 while Treasury yields continue rising, another round of liquidations could follow. A more stable setup would involve spot-driven gains accompanied by relatively subdued funding rates. Spot trading volume over the past 24 hours has already increased substantially from its August low, indicating greater activity in the underlying market.
Spot Bitcoin ETFs Attract $2.65 Billion Over Five Sessions
The U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF market remains one of the most important sources of demand. The funds recorded five consecutive sessions of net inflows: $159.5 million on September 17, $433 million on September 18, $998.95 million on September 21, $714.7 million on September 22 and $346.9 million on September 23. Combined, the five sessions generated approximately $2.65 billion in inflows.
The September 23 figure is particularly notable because it came during a major Treasury selloff. Investors added $346.9 million to spot Bitcoin ETFs even as Bitcoin declined from around $87,200 to $83,500. While the inflow was significantly lower than the previous day’s $714.7 million, demand remained positive despite the increase in real yields.
The breadth of the buying is also notable. On Monday, IBIT attracted $381.4 million, ARK 21Shares Bitcoin ETF (ARKB) received $289.1 million and Fidelity’s FBTC added $238.8 million. Together, the three funds accounted for approximately $909 million of inflows. Other products, including Grayscale, Bitwise and Morgan Stanley funds, also recorded positive flows.
Tuesday showed a similar pattern. IBIT received $350.3 million, FBTC attracted $257.4 million and Morgan Stanley’s MSBT recorded $99 million in inflows. The participation of products distributed through traditional wealth-management channels suggests that some of the demand is coming through established investment platforms rather than solely from short-term cryptocurrency traders.
The broader ETF flow picture has also improved. Investors have directed approximately $4.6 billion into U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs since August 19, reversing earlier outflows. As a result, the category has returned to approximately $320 million in net inflows for 2026.
The key question is whether the positive flow streak continues. A sustained slowdown or a return to net outflows could remove an important source of demand, particularly if Treasury yields continue to rise. Conversely, continued inflows would indicate that institutional buyers remain willing to allocate to Bitcoin despite higher real yields.
IBIT and the Changing ETF Flow Landscape
BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust remains a major vehicle for institutional Bitcoin exposure, but September’s flow data shows that demand is becoming more distributed across different funds.
IBIT led the two largest sessions of the latest inflow streak, attracting $381.4 million on Monday and $350.3 million on Tuesday. However, it did not account for the majority of total category inflows on those days.
Earlier in the month, IBIT had held a much larger lead. On September 18, for example, Fidelity’s FBTC attracted $306 million, nearly three times IBIT’s inflow, as Bitcoin moved toward $81,000. The shift indicates that investors are using multiple ETF products rather than directing all new allocations through a single fund.
IBIT’s regulatory filings also illustrate how much its flows have changed during 2026. According to its SEC 10-Q filing for the six months ended June 30, the trust reported a $22.18 billion decrease in net assets from operations, reflecting Bitcoin’s price decline during the first half of the year. Over the same period, the trust purchased $2.68 billion of Bitcoin and sold $8.42 billion, resulting in net sales of approximately $5.74 billion as redemptions exceeded creations. During the first half of 2025, by comparison, it purchased $19.13 billion and sold $4.16 billion.
That contrast provides context for September’s renewed inflows. The latest buying represents a change from the redemption-heavy environment seen during the first half of the year.
For IBIT investors, Bitcoin’s $84,000-$85,000 area remains an important near-term reference point because the fund is designed to track the underlying spot Bitcoin price. Daily ETF flow figures can also be revised, so individual sessions should be interpreted within the broader trend rather than in isolation.
Overall, the latest flow data suggests that Bitcoin’s institutional demand base is spread across several products and distribution channels. Whether that demand can continue absorbing selling pressure will depend heavily on the interaction between ETF flows and the direction of Treasury real yields.
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