Last Updated on 22/09/2026
- Bitcoin surged past the $85,000 mark on Monday after advancing 5.64% last week and finishing above its 50-week Simple Moving Average (SMA) near $78,200.
- US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) attracted modest net inflows of $6.21 million last week, reflecting continued investor interest despite the CLARITY Act setback and the Federal Reserve’s hawkish stance.
- According to one analyst, the latest rally has been fueled by short-covering activity, trader repositioning, and increased leverage, which could leave Bitcoin exposed to a correction if the breakout loses momentum.
Fundamental Analysis
Bitcoin (BTC) continued its upward momentum on Monday, climbing above the $85,000 level after gaining nearly 6% last week and breaking through an important resistance area. Institutional interest also remained relatively stable, with spot Bitcoin ETFs recording modest inflows despite regulatory uncertainty surrounding the CLARITY Act and a more hawkish stance from the Federal Reserve.
Institutional Demand Holds Up
According to SoSoValue data, US spot Bitcoin ETFs attracted approximately $6.2 million in net inflows last week, reversing the previous week’s outflow of $462.7 million. The return of positive flows suggests that institutional investors remain engaged even as regulatory and macroeconomic conditions become less supportive.
Should ETF inflows strengthen further in the coming days, Bitcoin could maintain its bullish trajectory and push toward higher price levels.
Analysts Urge Caution
Despite the recent rally, Bitunix analyst Dean Chen believes it is too early to confirm the start of a new bull market. He identified the $82,300–$82,800 region as a crucial resistance zone. A successful breakout followed by sustained support above this area would provide stronger evidence of a broader recovery.
However, Chen noted that trading volume has not increased significantly alongside prices, raising concerns about the strength of the advance. ETF flows have also remained inconsistent, while institutional demand has yet to establish a clear long-term inflow trend.
Market data shows Bitcoin Open Interest rose 3.6% over the past 24 hours, while short liquidations reached roughly $49 million. These figures suggest that the rally has been partly fueled by short covering and increasing leverage. If Bitcoin fails to maintain its breakout, elevated leverage could intensify downside risks.
Rally Defies Macro Headwinds
Chen emphasized that Bitcoin’s strength is particularly notable because it has occurred despite a challenging macroeconomic backdrop. The US Dollar Index gained more than 1% last week and moved back above 100, while Treasury yields remained elevated across the curve.
Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 25 basis points to a range of 3.75%–4.00% and signaled that another rate increase this year remains possible. Under normal circumstances, higher rates and stronger bond yields tend to pressure risk assets such as cryptocurrencies.
As a result, Chen believes Bitcoin’s advance reflects capital rotation within the crypto market, short-covering activity, and renewed leverage rather than a broad improvement in liquidity conditions. Stablecoin market capitalization also remains below its peak reached earlier this year, suggesting overall crypto liquidity has yet to fully recover.
For a stronger bullish confirmation, the analyst is monitoring whether Bitcoin can hold above the $82,700–$82,800 area while ETF inflows and Open Interest continue to grow steadily.
Technical Outlook
Bitcoin closed above its 50-week Simple Moving Average (SMA) near $78,200 last week, a development that strengthens the medium-term technical outlook. If this support remains intact, the next upside targets are the 50% Fibonacci retracement level near $87,600 and the 100-week SMA around $89,600.
Momentum indicators remain constructive. The weekly Relative Strength Index (RSI) is near 61, indicating positive momentum without entering overbought territory. The MACD also remains in bullish territory, supporting the possibility of additional gains.
However, if Bitcoin loses momentum and falls back below the 50-week SMA, the market could retrace toward the key psychological support level at $70,000.
Daily Chart Perspective
On the daily timeframe, Bitcoin continues to trade comfortably above its 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day Exponential Moving Averages, which are clustered between roughly $72,300 and $74,900. This reinforces the current bullish structure.
The daily RSI is approaching overbought conditions near 70, while the MACD remains positive, indicating strong but potentially stretched upward momentum.
Immediate resistance is located around $85,000. A decisive break above this barrier could pave the way for further gains. On the downside, the first major support sits near the 50-day EMA around $74,900, followed by the 200-day EMA near $73,500 and the 100-day EMA around $72,300. If a deeper correction develops, additional support levels can be found near $66,500 and $62,300.
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