Last Updated on 18/09/2026
After several sessions of waiting, some markets are finally beginning to reveal their next direction.
The U.S. Dollar has delivered the bullish breakout we had been watching for, while precious metals are attempting to hold important support levels and regain momentum. Meanwhile, several soft commodities remain locked in consolidation, meaning patience continues to be essential. Today’s approach is straightforward: follow confirmed breakouts, respect invalidation levels, and avoid forcing trades while the market remains undecided.
U.S. Dollar (DX.F)
Let’s begin today’s Lab Note by returning to our recent observation:
“(…) only a daily close outside either side of this structure – above 99.15 or below 98.72 – would bring something genuinely new to the table and help determine the next larger move. (…)”
This time, however, the market has finally chosen a direction.
From today’s standpoint, price action unfolded in line with our bullish scenario. Buyers succeeded in closing above both the major bearish gap at 98.80-99.15 and the upper boundary of the black rising channel.
They then immediately turned their attention toward the psychological 100 level.
During the advance, bulls also challenged another significant resistance zone formed by the highs from the first half of August and the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the previous decline.
The move also left behind two bullish gaps: 99.10-99.22 from September 15 and 99.34-99.40 from September 16.
What comes next?
Today’s session brought a pullback, with price testing yesterday’s breakout above the upper boundary of the rising channel.
This is important because the bullish setup remains intact as long as that breakout holds, particularly while the buy signals remain active. The next clear bullish trigger would be a daily close above 100, which could pave the way toward 100.37.
Should buyers overcome that resistance as well, attention would then shift toward the bearish gap at 100.67-100.72 from July 30.
What would invalidate the bullish setup? A daily close below the black support line, currently near 99.92.
Such a move would invalidate yesterday’s breakout and return control to the bears. Their initial target would be the 99.59-99.69 support zone. If that area fails, the next focus would be the first bullish gap below.
Dollar Takeaway
Key range: 99.92-100.00.
Daily close above 100 → bullish continuation toward 100.37, followed potentially by 100.67-100.72.
Daily close below 99.92 → breakout invalidated; attention shifts to 99.59-99.69 and the bullish gap below.
Palladium (PA.F)
There has been little technical change in Palladium.
The metal continues to trade below the broken lower boundary of the green rising channel, so our previous assessment remains relevant:
“(…) price remains below the formation. From a technical perspective, that means today’s upswing is still only testing yesterday’s breakdown unless bulls manage to close the day back above the lower boundary of the channel.
Given the size of yesterday’s black candle, however, we believe the bullish picture would improve more convincingly only after a close above yesterday’s bearish gap at 1370-1381.
There’s another thing worth keeping on the radar.
If bulls fail to invalidate yesterday’s breakdown, two bearish scenarios remain on the table. The first is based on the orange consolidation, with a downside target around 1266 – the 61.8% Fibo. The second comes from the green rising channel, pointing toward another downside target around 1226. (…)”
Palladium Takeaway
Keep an eye on the broken lower boundary of the green rising channel.
Reclaiming this level → first indication that the breakdown may be losing validity.
Daily close above 1370-1381 → stronger improvement in the bullish setup.
Breakdown remains intact → bearish targets remain at 1266, followed potentially by 1226.
Copper (HG.F)
Important Note on Copper
Before looking at today’s Copper setup, there is an important data issue to highlight.
The historical daily data for HG.F has changed since our Friday analysis. The September 10 candle currently shown on the chart is materially different from the candle displayed when Friday’s Lab was prepared.
Therefore, this is not a price movement that was missed in Friday’s analysis. Instead, the historical D1 data itself has subsequently changed.
It remains unclear whether the discrepancy comes from a data-feed correction, the way the continuous futures contract is constructed, or another historical-data adjustment, so we will not speculate about its cause.
For now, this discrepancy should be kept in mind when comparing today’s Copper chart with Friday’s Lab. Today’s analysis is based on the data currently available, with the roadmap adjusted accordingly.
So, what is the current chart showing?
Copper has reached an important support area defined by two technical factors: the 631.15-634.95 bullish gap from July 30 and the previously broken upper boundary of the red declining channel.
Buyers responded at this zone.
The result was several days of consolidation between 635.15 and 655.25, while today’s session shows an attempt to break above the upper boundary of that range.
If bulls can close the day above 655.25, the next objective will be the broken green line, which has now turned into the nearest resistance.
A successful reclaim of that level would bring the bullish scenario based on the consolidation pattern back into focus, potentially opening a path toward at least 676.54 over the coming days.
What would invalidate the bullish scenario? A daily close below 631.15.
Copper Takeaway
Watch 655.25.
Daily close above 655.25 → next test of the broken green resistance line.
Break above that resistance → consolidation target around 676.54 becomes relevant.
Daily close below 631.15 → bullish scenario invalidated.
Cotton #2 – ICE (CT.F)
Let’s pick up from where we stopped:
“(…) Cotton remains trapped in a narrow range between the 38.2% Fibo and the bearish gap at 88.55-89.33 from the beginning of the month – essentially an orange consolidation.
What does that tell us?
We still need a daily close outside this range before something genuinely new enters the technical picture.
Bearish scenario: a daily close below 86.10 would open the road toward 82.90.
Until one of those levels breaks, the range remains the story. (…)”
The market has now finally broken out of that range.
Monday saw Cotton break below 86.10, activating the bearish scenario. Today, sellers pushed the price down to 82.83, effectively reaching the 82.90 target.
What comes next?
Today’s decline also pushed price below the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the entire previous advance.
That development suggests the downside move could continue. The 81.85 area is now likely to become the next important battleground and could help determine the market’s next direction.
If bulls manage to defend this support, the first recovery target would be the broken lower boundary of the orange consolidation.
However, if buyers lose 81.85, sellers could gain another opportunity to push lower, with the important support area around 80 becoming the next focus.
Cotton Takeaway
Bearish target 82.90 reached — today’s low was 82.83.
Now focus on 81.85.
Hold 81.85 → potential rebound toward the broken consolidation.
Break below 81.85 → opens the way toward the key support area around 80.
ATL Cheat Sheet – September 17
Dollar (DX.F): Watch 99.92-100.00. A break above 100 targets 100.37, followed potentially by 100.67-100.72. A break below 99.92 shifts attention to 99.59-99.69.
Palladium (PA.F): Monitor the broken lower boundary of the green rising channel. Reclaiming it would provide the first bullish improvement. A break above 1370-1381 would offer stronger confirmation. If the breakdown remains valid, targets stay at 1266, followed potentially by 1226.
Copper (HG.F): Watch 655.25. A break above this level would bring the broken green resistance line into focus. Reclaiming that line would put 676.54 back on the radar. A break below 631.15 would invalidate the bullish scenario.
Cotton #2 (CT.F): The bearish 82.90 target has been reached. Now watch 81.85. Holding this level could support a rebound toward the broken consolidation, while a break below it would expose the next important support around 80.
Bottom line: Several markets have finally begun to move, but confirmation remains essential. When a breakout has already occurred, the focus is on following the move until the market invalidates it. When price remains trapped inside a range, patience is the better approach. No confirmed breakout, no confirmed breakdown — no reason to force a trade.
Stay focused, remain patient, and avoid forcing positions while market direction remains unclear.
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