Last Updated on 16/09/2026
Bitcoin is trading around $75,750, down 3.5% over the past 24 hours and at its lowest level since August 21. The decline has been almost uninterrupted from the $79,530 high reached during Asian trading, marking a $3,780 slide that more than erased Monday’s recovery. Ether has fallen 3.9% to $2,407, while Solana is down 3% at $98.50. The selloff comes just hours before the U.S. Senate’s 2:15 p.m. ET cloture vote on the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act and a day before the Federal Reserve is expected to announce its first rate hike since 2023.
At the current price, Bitcoin is only $338 above Strategy’s average purchase price of $75,412 per BTC, based on its holdings of 845,050 BTC. It is also $517 above the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of $75,233, calculated from the $97,924-to-$57,800 decline. Meanwhile, the $75,000 psychological level continues to provide support after containing pullbacks since Bitcoin broke out of its August $63,000-$65,000 base. These three support indicators — a corporate cost basis, a technical retracement and a psychological threshold — are concentrated within a $750 range.
That convergence makes the current session particularly important. Holding $75,000 through the Senate vote and Wednesday’s Fed announcement would preserve the August breakout structure and leave room for a recovery toward $80,000-$82,850. A decisive break below it, however, would push Bitcoin beneath Strategy’s approximate breakeven level and expose the next major support area around $73,053-$73,127, where the 200-day EMA and 38.2% Fibonacci retracement meet.
Bitcoin’s market capitalization is approximately $1.52 trillion, based on 20,084,306 coins in circulation. The cryptocurrency remains 40% below its October 6, 2025 record high of $126,210.50 and is 32% lower than it was a year ago. Despite the recent decline, Bitcoin is still 23% higher over the past 30 days, highlighting how much of the late-summer advance is now being tested.
The broader macro environment is also weighing on risk assets. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield reached 5.041%, its highest level since 2007, while WTI crude trades near $104.43. The Nasdaq is down 0.9% and the S&P 500 has slipped 0.6%. Higher real yields, a firmer dollar and expectations for tighter monetary policy increase the relative cost of holding a non-yielding asset such as Bitcoin. Gold is also lower at $4,329.80, suggesting that Bitcoin is not currently receiving a meaningful haven bid.
The central question for the next 30 days is whether Bitcoin can remain above the $75,000-$75,412 pivot. The Senate’s CLARITY vote and the Federal Reserve’s policy decision could determine which side of that range the market settles on.
Bitcoin Slides From $79,530 to $75,750
Bitcoin entered Tuesday with a relatively constructive setup. On Monday, while U.S. semiconductor stocks came under heavy pressure and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index dropped 5.9%, Bitcoin moved in the opposite direction. It gained 2% and climbed above $79,000 as traders positioned ahead of the Senate vote. For a brief period, Bitcoin showed signs of decoupling from technology stocks, attracting additional buyers.
The overnight high reached $79,530 in Asia, just $470 below the $80,000 threshold that has rejected several attempts since early September. Momentum quickly faded. During Tuesday’s Asian session, Bitcoin declined toward $77,800 as uncertainty surrounding the legislation in Washington coincided with a recovery in oil prices. WTI had briefly dropped to $100 overnight before rebounding toward $103, reinforcing expectations for additional Fed tightening.
By the European morning, Bitcoin was around $77,400. Although roughly unchanged over 24 hours, it was already about 3% below the overnight peak and more than 1% lower for the week. XRP was the strongest major cryptocurrency at that point, rising more than 2% to $1.41, while Zcash climbed to $1,149. Ether, BNB, Tron, Hyperliquid and Dogecoin were each slightly lower, while Solana remained close to $101.
At 4:53 a.m. ET, Bitcoin traded at $76,873.68, with 24-hour volume of $15.71 billion. Before the New York open, it was down 1.01% at $76,957.57. Selling accelerated once U.S. markets opened. As the 10-year Treasury yield moved above 5.02% and reached 5.041%, Bitcoin fell through $76,500 and reached $76,542.23 around midday, representing a 2.56% daily decline.
The final move toward $75,750 came as prediction-market expectations for the legislation deteriorated. The probability of the CLARITY Act becoming law this year fell to 11% before the afternoon vote. That removed much of the remaining speculative demand. Ether dropped to $2,407, Solana fell below $100 and Bitcoin’s 24-hour loss widened to 3.5%.
The nature of the decline is important. There was no obvious liquidation cascade or exchange-specific disruption. Instead, Bitcoin experienced a persistent decline as three pressures developed simultaneously: weakening expectations for the legislation, rising Treasury yields and higher oil prices. Such steady selling is generally more consistent with spot-market selling and broader de-risking than forced liquidations, meaning a sustained reversal may require the underlying catalysts to change.
Senate CLARITY Vote: 60 Votes Needed
The Senate vote scheduled for this afternoon is not a final vote on the CLARITY Act. It is a cloture vote on the motion to proceed, which would end a filibuster and allow the Senate to begin debate and amendments. Final passage would take place later. Both stages require 60 votes.
Republicans currently hold 53 Senate seats, meaning at least seven Democrats would need to support cloture if every Republican votes in favour.
The House previously passed the legislation 294-134, including support from 78 Democrats. The Senate Banking Committee advanced the bill 15-9 in May, but negotiations subsequently stalled over ethics provisions, protections for software developers and rules governing stablecoin rewards. Senate Majority Leader John Thune filed for cloture in August after the chamber recessed without reaching an agreement.
Republican senators Cynthia Lummis, Tim Scott and John Boozman released a 635-page revised proposal on Sunday. They said the draft incorporated 126 substantive changes requested by Democratic negotiators. Lummis argued that Democrats had received the changes they requested, while also acknowledging that some members might remain unwilling to support the legislation.
Democrats have disputed that assessment. Senate Democrats delivered a counterproposal late Monday after meeting in Minority Leader Chuck Schumer’s office. Lummis subsequently rejected that proposal. Senator Mark Warner said the ethics provisions remained inadequate, while Republican Senator Susan Collins said she still needed to examine the lengthy bill, including its potential impact on community-bank deposits.
The executive branch has continued to support advancing the legislation. SEC Chair Paul Atkins has said he expects the Senate to move forward, while Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has also urged senators to proceed.
With prediction markets assigning only an 11% probability to enactment this year, traders appear to have largely priced in a failed cloture vote. A failure would therefore confirm the prevailing expectation, while a successful vote could trigger a rapid repricing across Bitcoin and other crypto-related assets.
Key Disputes Holding Up the CLARITY Act
Three major issues remain central to the negotiations: ethics restrictions, stablecoin rewards and liability for decentralized-finance developers.
Ethics is the most prominent dispute. The revised Republican proposal would prohibit certain covered officials from issuing crypto assets and require them to deal with existing digital-asset interests through divestment or qualified blind trusts. Democrats argue that the provisions do not go far enough. One point of contention is whether state attorneys general would retain sufficient authority to pursue enforcement actions. A bipartisan group of state attorneys general, led by New York Attorney General Letitia James, has urged senators to preserve those powers.
Stablecoin rewards represent another major disagreement. The legislation would prohibit crypto companies from offering interest or yield on idle stablecoin balances in a manner economically similar to bank deposits, while permitting certain activity-based rewards linked to payments, transfers and trading. Banking groups are seeking stricter restrictions, arguing that yield-like incentives could pull deposits away from community banks.
The third issue concerns Section 604 and the potential liability of decentralized-finance developers. The provision could determine when developers of open-source software are treated as financial intermediaries.
Each issue affects a different group of lawmakers and industry participants, making the path to the required 60 votes more complicated. The Senate returned from recess on September 14 and is scheduled to leave again in early October for the midterm elections, leaving a relatively limited window for further negotiations.
Crypto companies are also preparing for an outcome in which Congress does not pass the bill. Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong has said that failure would not necessarily prevent regulatory clarity, given that the SEC and CFTC have indicated they are prepared to develop their own rules. SEC Chair Atkins has similarly said the agency will continue its crypto rulemaking regardless of the legislation’s progress.
Bitcoin Price Scenarios Around the Vote
Three broad outcomes could shape Bitcoin’s next move from the current $75,750 level.
If cloture fails to reach 60 votes, Bitcoin could initially fall below $75,000 as event-driven positions are unwound. The key technical question would then be whether the $75,000-$75,412 area can hold on a daily closing basis. A close below $75,000 would expose the $73,053-$73,127 support zone, followed by the $72,000 options max-pain level and the $70,000 strike, where open interest is concentrated.
A narrower failure, with 55-59 votes, could keep negotiations alive and raise the possibility of another attempt before the October recess. Under that outcome, Bitcoin could remain within a broader $75,000-$79,530 range while the market turns its attention toward Wednesday’s Fed decision.
A surprise result of 60 or more votes would represent a significant shift from current expectations. Bitcoin could then retest $79,530 and $80,000, followed by the $80,000-$82,000 supply zone. A sustained move above the $82,850 descending trendline, close to the 61.8% Fibonacci level at $82,597, would put $85,000 into focus, with $90,000 representing a longer-range options-related level.
The broader setup remains highly dependent on two additional factors: the Federal Reserve’s updated projections and spot ETF flows. The Senate vote may determine short-term direction, but monetary policy and capital flows could have a greater influence over the following several weeks.
Fed Rate Decision and 5.041% Treasury Yield Add Pressure
The Federal Reserve began its two-day meeting Tuesday, with markets pricing in a quarter-point rate increase. Fed funds futures were showing an 86.3% probability of a 25-basis-point hike, which would move the target range from 3.50%-3.75% to 3.75%-4.00%. Such a move would mark the first Fed rate increase since 2023.
The latest economic data have reinforced expectations for tighter policy. August CPI increased 0.4% month over month and 3.4% year over year, while underlying inflation remained above the Fed’s 2% objective. August payrolls increased by 162,000, significantly above the roughly 55,000-56,000 consensus forecast.
For Bitcoin, the rate increase itself may be less important than the Fed’s updated projections. The June dot plot indicated a year-end 2026 federal funds rate of 3.8%, implying one additional hike. Markets are now pricing two quarter-point increases by December.
If the median projection rises to two hikes, current market expectations would be reinforced. A projection for three hikes could push real yields higher and place additional pressure on the $75,000 support area. Conversely, a one-hike median could ease pressure on the dollar and longer-term Treasury yields.
Treasury yields are an important transmission channel. The 10-year yield reached 5.041%, exceeding its 2023 peak, while the 30-year yield stood at 5.36% as of September 11. With long-term government bonds offering yields above 5%, investors face a higher opportunity cost when allocating capital to a volatile asset that generates no conventional yield.
The dollar provides another channel. Higher yields and expectations for additional rate increases have supported the U.S. currency, which can create additional headwinds for Bitcoin when priced in dollars. Gold’s decline to $4,329.80 also suggests that higher real yields are currently outweighing demand for traditional non-yielding defensive assets.
The Bank of Japan’s decision on Thursday adds another major event to the week. Seven-day Bitcoin options covering the Senate vote, Fed meeting and BOJ decision show slightly greater demand for puts than calls, indicating that traders are paying somewhat more for downside protection. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s 2:30 p.m. ET press conference Wednesday therefore represents another key catalyst for Bitcoin over the coming month.
Oil Above $104 Adds to the Inflation Problem
Oil prices are an important link between geopolitical developments, inflation expectations and monetary policy. WTI reached $104.43 at midday, up 3%, while Brent earlier climbed to $107.90.
The latest increase followed an attack affecting Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline, which provides an alternative route that bypasses the Strait of Hormuz. Saudi officials have warned that disruptions could affect as much as 4% of global oil supply. A new Houthi strike on Saudi Arabia and postponed Gulf-state talks with Iran have added to the geopolitical risk premium.
The speed of the oil rally is particularly important for financial markets. Brent was around $94.39 in late August, crossed $101 on September 9 and reached $105 the following day. At $107.90, the benchmark had gained $13.51 in less than four weeks, or roughly 14%.
For Bitcoin, the transmission mechanism runs through inflation and interest rates. Higher oil prices can increase inflation expectations, potentially encouraging tighter Fed policy. Higher rates can then lift real yields and support the dollar, reducing demand for risk-sensitive assets such as Bitcoin.
Bitcoin’s rejection near $79,530 occurred around the same time WTI rebounded from $100 toward $103, highlighting the close relationship between the two markets this week.
The geopolitical situation also carries implications for crypto regulation. A U.S. Defense Department inspector general report estimated the cost of the Iran war at $33.4 billion, including the reported loss of four F-15 fighter jets and up to 30 MQ-9 Reaper drones. The U.S. Justice Department is also seeking $61 million linked to what it describes as proceeds from Iranian black-market oil sales laundered through crypto.
Bitcoin’s behaviour during previous geopolitical escalations has generally resembled that of a liquidity-sensitive risk asset rather than a traditional safe haven. During the earlier escalation in February, Bitcoin declined toward $63,000 following U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran.
That pattern could remain relevant. A further rise in WTI toward $110 could increase pressure on Bitcoin through higher inflation and rate expectations, while a decline back below $100 could reduce some of that pressure and create room for another test of $80,000.
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi is also scheduled to visit China on Wednesday, adding another geopolitical development to an already crowded calendar alongside the Federal Reserve decision.
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