USD/CAD Forecast: Holds Near 1.3850 After Breakout Above the Nine-Day EMA

Last Updated on 11/09/2026

• USD/CAD may find initial support at the nine-day EMA, currently positioned around 1.3828.
• The 14-day RSI is hovering near 46, suggesting bearish momentum is easing but downside risks remain.
• On the upside, the first key resistance level is located at the upper boundary of the descending channel near 1.3890.

USD/CAD extends its advance for a third straight session, trading near 1.3840 during Friday’s Asian session. The daily chart shows that the pair remains within a descending channel, pointing to a continued bearish technical outlook.

The near-term bias for USD/CAD remains bearish as the pair stays below the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA). Meanwhile, the price is holding slightly above the nine-day EMA, which provides immediate dynamic support. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is around 46, suggesting that downward momentum is beginning to stabilize, although mild bearish pressure persists following earlier oversold conditions.

USD/CAD could retest the immediate support level at the nine-day EMA around 1.3828. A decisive move below this short-term moving average could open the way toward the lower boundary of the descending channel at 1.3570. Further losses could bring the pair toward 1.3481, its lowest level since October 2024.

On the upside, USD/CAD could advance toward the key resistance area around 1.3890, marked by the upper boundary of the descending channel. The next hurdle is the 50-day EMA at 1.3913. A sustained break above this resistance zone would strengthen the bullish outlook and potentially pave the way toward 1.4248, the pair’s highest level in nearly 17 months, recorded on June 24, 2026.

CAD supported by commodities as markets await US inflation data

Scotiabank strategists say market conditions remain relatively stable, with spreads holding broadly steady. However, they warn that volatility could increase over the coming days as investors respond to upcoming US inflation figures. They also point to stronger crude oil prices and firmer commodity markets as factors supporting Canada’s terms of trade, suggesting that this positive backdrop may not yet be fully reflected in the Canadian Dollar.