USD/JPY advances to its highest level in nearly two weeks during Thursday’s Asian session, supported by a mix of favorable factors. The Japanese Yen remains under pressure due to economic concerns linked to shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz and expectations that the Bank of Japan may delay further rate hikes. At the same time, tensions between the United States and Iran over the key waterway continue to support the safe-haven US Dollar despite an extended ceasefire, providing an additional boost to the pair. Still, concerns about possible intervention limit further gains.
Technical analysis
The USD/JPY pair holds firm below the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the recent rally from last week’s swing low near 157.60, finding support at the 100-period EMA on the 1-hour chart. However, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) has dipped slightly into negative territory, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 48 points to neutral-to-mildly weak momentum.
Overall, momentum signals suggest that bullish strength is easing, though not enough to break the immediate intraday support near the 23.6% Fibonacci level at 159.15, which is reinforced by the 100-period EMA around 159.07. A deeper decline could bring the 38.2% retracement at 158.85 into focus, followed by additional Fibonacci support levels at 158.60, 158.36, and 158.01. If selling pressure intensifies further, the 157.57 swing low could emerge as a more significant downside support.
Fundamental Analysis
A short-term extension of the ceasefire between the United States and Iran triggers some selling pressure on the US Dollar (USD), weighing on USD/JPY. However, persistent economic concerns tied to the standoff in the Strait of Hormuz—where shipping disruptions and blockades continue despite the truce—help keep the Japanese Yen (JPY) under pressure and limit the pair’s downside.
THE ETERNAL SOVEREIGN 
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