NAS100, XAU/USD, USD/JPY

AI jitters weigh on Wall Street – NAS100

US stock futures stabilized on Tuesday following a shaky start to the week, as renewed selling linked to AI disruption concerns unsettled investors. Sentiment was also dented by fresh uncertainty around US President Donald Trump’s tariff agenda. Anxiety over artificial intelligence’s potential to disrupt software and wider industries intensified after a bearish report from Citirni Research highlighted AI-related risks extending beyond the tech sector.

While the intensity of the “AI scare” trade appears to be easing and traders are stepping back into some beaten-down tech names, markets remain cautious amid ongoing tariff confusion. This comes after Friday’s turbulence triggered by the US Supreme Court’s decision to overturn President Trump’s sweeping tariff measures.

The US100 is trying to stabilize after sliding 1.13% in the previous session, breaking below a medium-term ascending trendline drawn from the August lows. The index is trading just beneath the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the October 30–November 21 decline from the record peak of 24,757. Immediate support is seen at the 23.6% Fibonacci level around 24,400, while a recovery could prompt a retest of the short-term SMAs near 25,075 and 25,300.

Tariff uncertainty and US-Iran tensions support Gold

Gold is retreating from a three-week high near 5,250 as a firmer US dollar and profit-taking pressure prices after a rally fueled by tariff uncertainty and geopolitical risks in the Middle East. Investors are awaiting further clarity on President Trump’s trade policy after the Supreme Court invalidated his earlier global tariff framework. The administration has since introduced temporary 15% tariffs aimed at addressing what it describes as a balance-of-payments crisis, a characterization questioned by many economists.

Attention also remains on escalating US-Iran tensions ahead of a third round of talks, as the White House signals it may be edging closer to potential military action related to Iran’s nuclear program, including additional naval deployments. Later today, President Trump’s State of the Union address could add another layer of volatility.

Technically, gold has snapped a four-day winning streak and is testing firm support at 5,141 — the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the January 29–February 2 decline from its record high. Further support lies near the 20-day SMA around the key 5,000 mark. Despite the pullback, the broader bias remains positive, with both MACD and RSI still in bullish territory, albeit turning cautious. A rebound could target 5,342, with scope for fresh highs above 5,420.

Yen ahead of CPI

The yen extended its decline against a stronger dollar as tariff concerns resurfaced and reports suggested Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi voiced caution about additional Bank of Japan rate hikes during discussions with Governor Kazuo Ueda. The yen’s rebound following the February 8 election has faded, reviving the so-called “Takaichi trade” amid fears that fiscal expansion could further weaken the currency.

Yen weakness also shifts attention to Friday’s Tokyo CPI data. Current fiscal measures may struggle to keep inflation anchored at the BoJ’s 2% target, while recent figures indicate earlier cost-push pressures are easing. Continued currency softness could bring forward expectations for the next BoJ rate hike from December to as early as April.

Technically, USD/JPY is approaching an upside breakout from a symmetrical triangle pattern, testing two-week highs around 156.30. Momentum remains modest, with the RSI hovering near the neutral 50 level and the MACD still below zero. A daily close above the 50-day SMA — coinciding with the triangle’s upper boundary — could pave the way toward 157.60. On the downside, a move below the 20-day SMA may expose the psychological 154.00 level.

Sources: Ni Zen