Fundamental Analysis

Gold prices retreated to around $4,610 during Thursday’s Asian trading session, pulling back from a three-month high after the latest US inflation figures largely matched market expectations. The data reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve could still raise interest rates at its next meeting, reducing demand for the non-yielding precious metal.

The latest figures from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) showed that the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index rose 3.7% year-over-year in July, slightly above the market forecast of 3.6% and unchanged from the previous reading.

Meanwhile, the core PCE index, which excludes food and energy prices, remained at 3.3% annually, matching economists’ expectations. On a monthly basis, both headline and core PCE inflation increased by 0.2%.

Market participants viewed the report as broadly in line with forecasts, prompting a period of consolidation in gold prices after recent gains. According to analysts, the pullback appears to be driven more by profit-taking than by any major shift in the broader bullish outlook.

Following the inflation release, traders slightly increased their expectations for a September Fed rate hike. Futures markets now indicate roughly a 38% probability of a 25-basis-point increase, up from about 36% before the data was published.

Attention now turns to the Jackson Hole Symposium, where investors will closely watch remarks from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh on Friday for fresh guidance on the future path of US monetary policy. Any indication that policymakers remain concerned about inflation and willing to keep rates higher for longer could create additional headwinds for gold.

Despite recent volatility in the Treasury market and a notable rally in long-dated US government bonds, analysts at Rabobank note that gold has remained remarkably resilient. The metal has yet to show signs of a deeper selloff, suggesting underlying demand remains intact even as investors reassess interest-rate expectations.

Technical Analysis

From a technical perspective, XAU/USD remains in a constructive uptrend, with the price continuing to trade above both the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and the 20-day Bollinger Band midpoint, reinforcing the bullish market structure.

Momentum indicators also favor buyers. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 67.64, remaining below the overbought threshold of 70 but indicating strong upward momentum. The reading suggests that bullish sentiment remains dominant, although the rally may be becoming somewhat stretched in the short term.

On the upside, the first key resistance level is located near the upper Bollinger Band at $4,745. A sustained move above this barrier could pave the way for further gains, while failure to break higher may trigger profit-taking and a period of consolidation.

On the downside, initial support is seen around the 100-day SMA at $4,380, with additional support provided by the 20-day Bollinger Band midpoint at $4,365. Together, these levels form a significant demand zone that could help contain any near-term pullback. If selling pressure intensifies, the lower Bollinger Band near $3,985 represents the next major support area and a critical longer-term floor for the broader bullish trend.

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The Nasdaq outperformed, semiconductor stocks rebounded, and Nvidia ended a seven-session losing streak. But Tuesday’s move looked less like a broad return to risk-on trading and more like a wave of short covering. The S&P 500 outside the AI complex was largely flat, meaning the headline gains overstated the strength of the broader market.

Key Takeaways

• Falling oil prices provided much-needed relief for equities as lower crude prices helped pull long-term Treasury yields down and reduced pressure on growth-stock valuations.
• The oil retreat reflected improving geopolitical signals, including renewed diplomacy involving Iran and the Strait of Hormuz, less severe-than-feared sanctions, and continued crude flows despite regional conflict.
• The stock-market rebound remained concentrated in AI-related names, while broader participation was limited and short covering amplified the gains.
• Nvidia now has a more favorable backdrop heading into earnings, but elevated positioning and extremely high expectations mean a solid quarter alone may not be enough.

Oil Drop Gives Markets Room to Breathe

Tuesday’s rally offered investors some relief from two of the biggest pressures weighing on markets recently: oil prices and long-term bond yields. Crude declined, Treasuries gained, the Nasdaq recovered, and the cross-asset environment became noticeably more supportive of growth stocks.

Oil was the key catalyst.

WTI crude fell more than 3% below $82 a barrel, while Brent slipped under $90, as signs of easing geopolitical tensions surrounding Iran encouraged traders to unwind some of the risk premium embedded in oil prices.

Iranian media portrayed Pakistan’s army chief’s visit to Tehran positively, while Iran and Oman discussed efforts to restore navigation through the Strait of Hormuz. Meanwhile, Washington’s latest sanctions fell short of some of the more aggressive measures investors had feared, particularly those that could have placed greater pressure on international buyers and shipping companies.

The situation around Hormuz remains fragile, but oil prices do not need a full diplomatic breakthrough to decline. They simply need the next geopolitical headline to appear less threatening than the previous one.

As crude retreated, traders began taking profits after the market had shifted rapidly from heavily short positioning toward increasingly long exposure. Refined products also started to cool, particularly diesel, which had accumulated an unusually large premium amid Middle East disruptions and attacks on Russian refining infrastructure.

The decline in oil matters because markets have repeatedly followed the same pattern in recent weeks: higher crude, higher long-term yields, weaker growth stocks and increasing pressure on consumers.

The AI sector has been battling that combination almost every day. Once oil prices began falling and bonds rallied, some of that pressure eased.

Treasuries strengthened across the curve, with longer maturities leading the advance. 30-year Treasury yields dropped roughly six basis points on Tuesday and about 10 basis points from Friday, helped by weaker consumer confidence and signs of softer economic momentum.

With markets pricing only modest additional Fed tightening for the remainder of the year, the lower-yield environment offered some relief to richly valued technology stocks.

Treasury Secretary Bessent’s expanded long-duration buyback program is also beginning to influence sentiment at the long end of the curve. It has not eliminated concerns surrounding the US fiscal outlook or placed a firm ceiling on yields, but it has made the one-way short-duration trade somewhat less attractive.

That was enough to give equities some breathing room.

Nvidia Takes Center Stage

The Nasdaq led the rebound, chipmakers recovered, and Nvidia finally broke its seven-session losing streak. Yet the move remained relatively narrow. Excluding the AI complex, the S&P 500 was essentially unchanged, while short covering helped make the major indexes look stronger than the underlying breadth suggested.

That does not make the rally insignificant. Instead, it highlights where investor conviction remains concentrated.

Capital moved back toward AI stocks as the macroeconomic environment became less hostile. Traders who had bet against the sector were also forced to cover positions as lower yields and weaker oil prices improved the backdrop just ahead of Nvidia’s earnings report.

Nvidia is now the market’s key test.

The company is expected to post quarterly revenue of roughly $92 billion, nearly twice the level from a year earlier. But the headline figure is no longer enough. Nvidia is increasingly being treated as the market’s quarterly verdict on whether the enormous AI infrastructure-spending cycle still has enough momentum to justify current valuations.

And that makes expectations increasingly difficult to beat.

Early earnings surprises helped establish the AI narrative. Subsequent results turned that narrative into consensus. Now investors are looking for evidence that the growth story remains almost inevitable.

A strong result combined with upbeat guidance would arrive against a much more supportive backdrop than existed just days ago. Oil is lower, long-term yields have eased, Treasury intervention is more visible, and some excessive positioning has already been reduced.

If Nvidia confirms that hyperscaler demand remains robust, the recent technology selloff could begin to look more like a healthy reset than a fundamental break in the AI trade.

The bigger risk, however, is not necessarily an earnings miss.

Nvidia could deliver a result that would be exceptional for almost any other company, yet still disappoint investors if expectations have already moved beyond conventional definitions of strong performance.

Positioning makes that risk particularly important.

Investors have spent years building around the AI trade, favoring companies viewed as beneficiaries while taking more cautious positions toward businesses considered vulnerable to disruption. Semiconductors and software have effectively become opposing sides of the same broader investment theme.

July’s deleveraging reduced some of that exposure, but it did not eliminate it.

As long as AI investment continues accelerating, elevated positioning can remain justified. The problem arises when too many investors are already positioned in the same direction and the next catalyst delivers something merely good rather than extraordinary.

The Broader Market Still Has Plenty to Worry About

Tuesday’s rally should therefore be viewed as meaningful relief rather than a complete change in market direction.

Investors have not suddenly resolved the Iran conflict, US fiscal concerns or the debate over AI valuations. What changed was that falling oil prices stopped making all three problems appear even worse.

Gold continued moving toward $4,700 an ounce before retreating, Bitcoin briefly climbed above $81,000, and the dollar weakened. That suggests the broader debasement trade remains intact, with investors simultaneously buying technology on lower yields and maintaining exposure to hard assets as protection against fiscal and monetary uncertainty.

That leaves markets heading into Nvidia’s earnings with an unusual combination: lower oil prices, easier financial conditions, persistent fiscal concerns and an AI sector facing enormous expectations.

The path for equities is becoming clearer.

If oil continues falling, long-term yields could become easier for investors to tolerate. If yields remain contained, the discount-rate pressure on technology stocks should ease. And if Nvidia delivers the results investors have come to expect, Tuesday’s relief rally could have room to extend.

For now, oil has removed one of the biggest obstacles facing markets.

The pressure has eased.

Now Wall Street is waiting to see whether Nvidia can keep the momentum going.

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In a Monday interview, Fidelity fund manager George Efstathopoulos said gold investors are becoming less concerned about rising yields and increasingly focused on why yields are climbing. He has reportedly doubled his fund’s allocation to gold, signaling growing institutional interest in the precious metal.

The broader narrative around gold and interest rates may be changing. Rather than simply viewing higher yields as negative for gold, investors are increasingly questioning whether rising rates reflect deeper concerns over US government debt, excessive spending, inflation and declining confidence in policymakers.

The US Treasury yield outlook could therefore become a key driver for gold. If long-term yields continue to rise, the relationship between rates, fiscal sustainability and investor confidence could potentially push gold significantly higher.

Technical indicators suggest that gold’s long-term trend remains bullish, with $4,800-$5,000 emerging as a major resistance zone. However, the latest rally has also left the market technically stretched. RSI and Stochastics are both in overbought territory, while elevated market optimism points to the possibility of a short-term correction.

A pullback of around 5%-7% in gold could be possible, while silver and gold-mining stocks such as GDX could experience deeper corrections of roughly 10%-20%. Such a decline could create another entry opportunity for investors who missed the earlier $3,900-$4,100 buying zone.

Silver remains comparatively resilient, with $61-$63 offering an important support area. Although Stochastics is overbought, RSI suggests the metal could maintain its near-term momentum even if gold temporarily retreats.

Gold-mining stocks have rallied particularly sharply. GDX has gained nearly 50% in roughly one month, a pace that is unlikely to be sustainable indefinitely. While the long-term outlook for miners remains bullish, the recent surge may justify taking partial profits while maintaining core positions.

Investor positioning also warrants attention. Although the gold-stock sentiment index is not yet extremely overbought, its RSI indicates elevated conditions. A further surge toward overbought territory could occur if policymakers fail to address concerns surrounding government spending, debt and rising yields.

Under a bullish scenario, gold could move toward $5,000 while GDX potentially climbs toward $110-$120. The longer-term outlook for miners could be even more ambitious if the current Elliott Wave structure develops as expected.

Overall, the key theme is shifting from simply asking “Will higher rates hurt gold?” to asking “Why are rates rising?” If higher yields increasingly reflect fiscal stress and weakening confidence in US institutions, gold could benefit as investors seek alternative stores of value.

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Gold Climbs Above $4,650 as US Dollar Weakens and Treasury Buybacks Support Demand

• Gold price extends its rally to around $4,670, marking its highest level in more than three months during early Asian trading on Wednesday.
• A weaker US Dollar and declining Treasury yields continue to support demand for the precious metal.
• The Trump administration expanded secondary sanctions on Iran, increasing geopolitical and inflation-related risks.

Gold (XAU/USD) rises toward $4,670, its strongest level since May 14, as the precious metal benefits from broad US Dollar weakness and expectations surrounding the US Treasury’s bond buyback program.

US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent recently indicated that Treasury buybacks could exceed $4 billion, following plans to double purchases of longer-dated government securities. The prospect of reduced Treasury supply has pushed longer-term yields lower and encouraged short-covering in the bond market, indirectly supporting gold.

A weaker Greenback makes USD-denominated gold more affordable for international buyers, while lower Treasury yields reduce the opportunity cost of holding a non-yielding asset such as gold.

Meanwhile, geopolitical risks are also gaining attention. The Trump administration has expanded secondary sanctions against entities and countries maintaining business relationships with Iran. Escalating tensions between Washington and Tehran could fuel concerns over energy prices and inflation, potentially influencing the Federal Reserve’s interest-rate path.

However, higher inflation expectations and the possibility of future Fed rate hikes could limit gold’s upside, as higher interest rates tend to reduce the appeal of non-interest-bearing bullion.

Markets will closely watch Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium on Friday for fresh clues about the US interest-rate outlook. Any hawkish signals from Fed officials could trigger some profit-taking in gold.

Gold Rally May Be Vulnerable to Macro Risks

TD Securities cautions that the latest gold rally could prove premature. With markets still pricing in potential rate hikes into 2027 and energy prices remaining a significant risk, the bank believes the current move may face challenges before gold can establish another sustained run toward record highs.

Technical Outlook: XAU/USD Remains Bullish but Overbought

Gold maintains a bullish near-term structure on the daily chart, trading comfortably above its 100-day SMA and the Bollinger middle band. The price is now approaching the upper portion of the Bollinger range, while the 14-day RSI near 73 indicates overbought conditions.

On the downside, initial support is located around $4,380, corresponding to the 100-day SMA, followed by the Bollinger middle band near $4,340. A deeper correction could bring the lower Bollinger band around $3,955 into focus.

To the upside, $4,725 represents the key resistance level near the upper Bollinger band. A sustained daily close above this area could reinforce the bullish trend and expose gold to further gains. Conversely, failure to break above $4,725 may trigger consolidation or a pullback as overbought conditions ease.

Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD Holds Above $69 as Markets Await US PCE Inflation Data

• Silver price (XAG/USD) rises nearly 1% to around $69.40, supported by falling oil prices and easing concerns over energy supply disruptions.
• Iran and Oman have resumed discussions aimed at establishing a temporary maritime corridor to facilitate safer navigation through the Strait of Hormuz.
• Investors turn their attention to the US July PCE inflation report and the upcoming Jackson Hole Symposium for clues on the Federal Reserve’s policy outlook.

Silver (XAG/USD) advances toward $69.40 during Wednesday’s Asian session, extending its recovery as crude oil prices decline. The move comes amid growing optimism that shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, a key route for nearly one-fifth of global energy supplies, could gradually resume.

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi and Oman’s Foreign Minister Badr Albusaidi reportedly discussed an interim framework designed to restore safe maritime traffic through the strategic waterway. The development has reduced concerns over a prolonged disruption to global energy supplies.

Lower oil prices could ease inflationary pressures and reduce expectations for aggressive interest-rate hikes from major central banks. This environment tends to benefit non-yielding assets such as silver.

Meanwhile, market participants are awaiting the US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index for July, due at 12:30 GMT. Core PCE inflation, the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge, is expected to remain at 3.3% YoY, while monthly growth is forecast at 0.2%, up from 0.1% in June.

The Jackson Hole Symposium will also be a major market catalyst this week, with investors looking for further signals about the Fed’s approach to inflation and interest rates.

Jackson Hole Could Shape the Fed Rate Outlook

TD Securities views Friday’s Jackson Hole event as the week’s key macroeconomic risk. Investors are expected to focus on Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s prepared remarks for clearer guidance on the central bank’s inflation mandate.

The bank expects the Fed to remain on hold for the foreseeable future, although it notes that persistently elevated inflation and a stabilized labor market could shift policymakers’ attention further toward price stability.

If the Federal Reserve makes a policy move this year, TD Securities believes a rate hike could be more likely than a rate cut, potentially limiting silver’s upside.

Silver Technical Analysis: XAG/USD Maintains Bullish Momentum

On the daily chart, XAG/USD trades around $69.17, remaining comfortably above its 20-day EMA at $65.12. The sustained distance above this dynamic support level keeps the short-term outlook bullish.

The 14-day RSI stands at 64.65, indicating positive momentum while remaining below overbought territory. This suggests that buyers retain control without the market showing clear signs of exhaustion.

On the downside, the 20-day EMA around $65.12 represents the first major support level. A sustained break below it could weaken the near-term bullish structure.

To the upside, the June 17 high at $71.56 is the key resistance level. A decisive break above this barrier could reinforce the bullish trend and open the way toward higher levels.

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Gold and silver extended their recent gains on Friday as a weaker US Dollar (USD), elevated market volatility, and renewed safe-haven demand supported precious metals. Gold (XAU/USD) climbed to around $4,544 during the Asian session, reaching its highest level since early June, while Silver (XAG/USD) approached $69 per troy ounce after gaining nearly 6% this week.

Gold Holds Above $4,500 as USD Weakness Supports Buyers

Gold continued its upward momentum after breaking above the technically important 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA). The precious metal reached approximately $4,544, marking its strongest level since early June and reinforcing the broader bullish outlook.

The primary driver behind the latest Gold rally has been continued weakness in the USD, which remains close to a three-month low. Recent US inflation data showed signs of easing price pressures, leading investors to reassess expectations for Federal Reserve monetary policy.

Because Gold does not generate interest income, expectations for higher US interest rates typically reduce its appeal. Conversely, fading expectations for tighter monetary policy can support demand for the precious metal by lowering the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets.

However, rising crude oil prices could complicate the outlook. Higher energy prices may reignite inflation concerns and encourage the Federal Reserve to maintain a restrictive policy stance for longer. At the same time, escalating tensions between the US and Iran around the Strait of Hormuz, together with renewed activity by Iran-backed Houthi forces targeting oil tankers, have increased concerns about potential disruptions to global energy supplies.

Oil prices subsequently advanced to a three-week high, helping keep US Treasury yields elevated and potentially limiting the downside in the USD.

Fed Rate Hike Expectations Could Cap Gold’s Upside

The latest Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes offered some support for the US Dollar. Policymakers indicated that interest rates could need to rise in the near term unless inflation continues to move lower.

Meanwhile, the CME FedWatch Tool shows markets pricing in approximately a 68% probability of at least one Federal Reserve rate hike before the end of the year. If these expectations strengthen, higher Treasury yields and a firmer USD could create headwinds for Gold.

Geopolitical risks are also influencing currency markets. US President Donald Trump said Washington would pursue a major economic campaign against Iran and warned of penalties for countries helping Tehran circumvent sanctions or maintain commercial ties with Iran. Vice President JD Vance likewise highlighted economic pressure as a key tool for influencing Tehran.

Such developments could increase demand for the USD as a traditional safe-haven currency, potentially limiting further gains in Gold.

Gold Technical Outlook: XAU/USD Targets $4,687

From a technical perspective, XAU/USD remains in a bullish structure after establishing itself above the 200-day SMA. Buyers are now looking for a sustained move above the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the April-June decline, located around $4,529.

The MACD remains in positive territory, supporting the prevailing bullish momentum. However, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands near 67.70, approaching overbought territory and suggesting that the recent advance could be becoming stretched.

A sustained breakout above $4,529 could expose the next resistance near the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement at approximately $4,687. A further extension could bring the cycle high around $4,889 into focus.

On the downside, initial support is located near $4,529, followed by the 200-day SMA around $4,514 and the 50% Fibonacci retracement near $4,417. Additional support levels can be found around $4,306, $4,168, and the structural low near $3,946.

Silver Approaches $69 as Volatility Drives Safe-Haven Demand

Silver (XAG/USD) also extended its advance for a third consecutive session, trading around $68.70 per troy ounce during Friday’s Asian session. The metal has gained nearly 6% over the week as heightened volatility across currency and bond markets encouraged investors to increase exposure to precious metals.

The initial boost came after the US Treasury Department announced plans to at least double its long-term debt buyback operations. The announcement initially pushed Treasury yields and the USD lower, creating a supportive environment for non-yielding assets such as Silver.

Although US Treasury yields later recovered much of their decline, continued weakness in the dollar allowed Silver to maintain its bullish momentum.

Market uncertainty surrounding the Treasury’s debt-management strategy has also contributed to demand for precious metals. While the initial fall in longer-term yields has largely reversed, persistent USD weakness indicates that investors remain cautious about the implications of the buyback program and the broader US fiscal outlook.

Rising Oil Prices Create Risks for Silver

Despite the bullish near-term outlook, Silver could face resistance if higher energy prices revive inflation concerns.

Crude oil prices have risen amid escalating tensions between Washington and Tehran over the strategically important Strait of Hormuz. Stalled negotiations and stronger US economic pressure on Iran have increased concerns about potential disruptions to Iranian oil exports and global energy supplies.

The US is reportedly preparing additional economic measures targeting Iran’s banking sector, shipping networks, cash transfers, and smuggling operations. The objective is to intensify pressure on Tehran and encourage negotiations over its nuclear program and regional activities.

Higher oil prices could increase inflation expectations and reduce the likelihood of rapid monetary easing. If central banks respond by maintaining or raising interest rates, higher yields could weigh on non-yielding assets such as Gold and Silver.

Gold and Silver Outlook

Overall, both Gold and Silver retain a constructive near-term outlook as USD weakness, elevated financial-market volatility, and safe-haven demand continue to support precious metals.

Gold’s ability to remain above its 200-day SMA keeps the broader bullish structure intact, while a sustained break above $4,529 could pave the way toward $4,687 and potentially $4,889.

Silver is approaching the psychologically important $69 level after a strong weekly rally. However, rising oil prices, renewed inflation risks, and expectations for higher interest rates could limit further upside and increase volatility.

For both precious metals, the next major directional catalyst is likely to come from the interaction between USD performance, Federal Reserve rate expectations, Treasury yields, and developments surrounding US-Iran tensions.

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• Gold extends its decline for a second straight day on Friday.
• Easing expectations for a Fed rate hike may help cushion further downside in the non-yielding precious metal.
• Ongoing geopolitical tensions could support the safe-haven US Dollar, potentially limiting gains in bullion.

Gold (XAU/USD) edges higher from around $4,300 heading into the European session on Friday, but remains in negative territory for a second consecutive day. The precious metal is attempting to stabilize after pulling back from $4,450, its highest level since June 5, reached the previous day. However, a mixed fundamental backdrop suggests caution before assuming the correction will extend.

US inflation data has strengthened expectations that the Federal Reserve may remain patient with interest rates. The US Producer Price Index (PPI) was flat in July, missing expectations for a 0.2% increase, while annual PPI inflation eased sharply to 4.7% from 5.5% in June and came in below the 4.9% forecast. Combined with Wednesday’s softer Consumer Price Index (CPI), the data points to moderating inflation and has kept the US Dollar under pressure, providing some support for non-yielding Gold.

Market expectations for Fed policy have shifted noticeably. The probability of a September rate hike has fallen to around 40%, compared with 72% at the end of July, while futures now price just over a 65% chance of a rate hike by year-end, down from nearly 85% a week earlier. Recent comments from Fed officials have also highlighted divisions over the appropriate policy path. Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee emphasized patience, arguing that recent price increases may be temporary, while Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack maintained that inflation remains too high and could require additional rate increases.

Geopolitical tensions, however, could provide support for the safe-haven US Dollar and limit Gold’s upside. US officials have issued strong warnings toward Iran, while Tehran has vowed to make any potential conflict costly. Rising tensions around the Strait of Hormuz are adding to the war-risk premium, with the US claiming control over the strategic waterway and Iran threatening to keep it closed until its demands are met. Meanwhile, Iran-backed Houthis have intensified attacks on vessels in the Red Sea and Bab el-Mandeb Strait, raising concerns about a broader regional conflict.

Against this backdrop, Gold’s downside appears relatively limited, but the mixed fundamental picture makes aggressive directional bets risky. XAU/USD has so far stalled its broader monthly advance from around the psychological $4,000 level. Traders will now focus on upcoming US Retail Sales and the preliminary University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment data for fresh clues on the economic and monetary-policy outlook.

XAU/USD 4-Hour Chart – Technical Analysis

Gold remains above the 200-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) on the 4-hour chart, while a cluster of Fibonacci support levels suggests that the broader bullish trend remains intact despite the recent correction. However, momentum has weakened. The MACD is trading below both zero and its signal line, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has slipped to around 42, indicating that buying pressure is losing strength.

On the downside, the first key support is the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at $4,285, based on the latest move higher from the August swing low. A break below this level could expose the 50.0% retracement near $4,234, followed by the 61.8% level around $4,184. The 200-period EMA also provides additional support in this area.

On the upside, immediate resistance stands at the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement near $4,347. Beyond that, Gold faces a major barrier around the $4,448.40 cycle high. A sustained break above this level would reinforce the bullish outlook and potentially open the door to further gains.

• Silver prices remain range-bound near $65.40 as investors await the release of US Producer Price Index (PPI) figures.
• Softer-than-expected US inflation readings for July have prompted markets to scale back expectations of a more hawkish Federal Reserve.
• Both headline and core Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures in the United States eased in line with forecasts.

Silver (XAG/USD) traded within a narrow range around $65.40 during Thursday’s Asian session, with investors awaiting fresh direction from upcoming US economic data. While price action remained subdued, easing inflationary pressures in the United States have continued to support the metal’s broader outlook.

Data released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics on Wednesday showed that headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation slowed to 3.4% year-over-year in July from 3.5% in June. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy prices, also eased to 2.5% from 2.6%, matching market expectations.

The softer inflation readings have reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve may refrain from raising interest rates further in the near term. According to CME FedWatch data, the probability of the Fed leaving rates unchanged at its September meeting has climbed to nearly 60%, compared with just 30.4% a month earlier.

A less aggressive monetary policy outlook tends to benefit non-yielding assets such as Silver, as lower interest rate expectations reduce the opportunity cost of holding precious metals.

Market participants now turn their attention to the US Producer Price Index (PPI) report for July, scheduled for release at 12:30 GMT, which could provide additional clues about the inflation trend and the Fed’s policy path.

Silver Technical Analysis

Silver continues to consolidate around $65.40 while maintaining a positive technical structure above the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $61.66. Holding above this key short-term trend indicator suggests that buying interest remains intact despite the recent pause in upward momentum.

The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 61.17, remaining in bullish territory while still below overbought levels, indicating there is room for further gains if buying pressure strengthens.

On the downside, the 20-day EMA at $61.66 serves as immediate support and remains the key level to watch. A decisive break below this area could trigger a deeper correction. On the upside, a breakout above the current consolidation zone and resistance at $66.59 could pave the way for a move toward the June 16 peak near $71.19.

• WTI could extend its gains as President Trump’s latest compensation demands on Tehran reduce expectations for a near-term peace deal.
• Washington is reportedly leaning toward tougher economic sanctions rather than military intervention to pressure Iran into reopening the Strait of Hormuz.
• Negotiations between Oman and Iran over restoring access to the key shipping corridor remain at a standstill while both sides await progress on a broader agreement with the US.

WTI crude oil extends its rally after surging more than 6.5% in the previous session, trading near $81.40 during Tuesday’s Asian session. Oil prices remain supported as uncertainty deepens over prospects for a US-Iran agreement aimed at ending hostilities and reopening the strategically important Strait of Hormuz.

Expectations for a quick resolution have faded after US President Donald Trump unveiled a new set of demands for Tehran, including compensation for victims of regional conflicts. The announcement followed Iran’s insistence on receiving reparations as part of any agreement to end the war, raising concerns that supply disruptions could persist for longer than previously anticipated.

Instead of pursuing additional military action to reopen the crucial shipping corridor, the US administration appears to favor escalating economic sanctions on Iran. At the same time, talks between Iran and Oman regarding the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz remain deadlocked, with Tehran linking progress to the achievement of a broader peace deal with Washington.

Additional support for crude prices comes from growing skepticism over a near-term diplomatic breakthrough. Analysts at TD Securities noted that a resolution to tensions surrounding the Strait of Hormuz remains difficult to achieve, describing a potential “Hormuz deal” as still out of reach. The bank added that persistent geopolitical risks and the threat of disruptions at major energy transit routes continue to provide a favorable backdrop for oil prices and trend-following market participants.

• Gold extends its advance for a third consecutive session, reaching its highest level in more than two months on Tuesday.
• Easing expectations of further Federal Reserve rate hikes continue to support demand for the non-yielding precious metal.
• Investors may remain cautious ahead of new geopolitical developments and the release of the latest US inflation data.

Gold (XAU/USD) continued its upward momentum for a third straight session on Tuesday, marking gains in five of the past six trading days and reaching its highest level since early June above the $4,400 threshold during Asian trading. The rally has been supported by last Friday’s weaker-than-expected US employment data, which signaled a softening labor market and reduced expectations that the Federal Reserve will tighten monetary policy further, boosting demand for the non-yielding precious metal.

Despite the advance, concerns over inflation remain in focus as oil prices stay volatile amid the ongoing Iran conflict. These inflation risks have prevented markets from fully dismissing the possibility of additional Fed rate hikes, helping the US Dollar maintain recent gains and limiting Gold’s upside potential. Adding to geopolitical uncertainty, US President Donald Trump rejected Iran’s request for compensation related to war damages and instead blamed Tehran for casualties across the region.

Tensions in the Middle East remain elevated after Iran ruled out renewed negotiations with Trump until after his term ends in January 2029, reducing hopes for a near-term resolution and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. At the same time, disruptions in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait caused by Houthi naval actions continue to constrain shipping activity, contributing to a sharp rise in crude oil prices and reigniting inflation concerns. Markets still anticipate at least one Federal Reserve rate increase in 2026.

These factors continue to support higher US Treasury yields and provide underlying strength to the US Dollar, suggesting caution for traders expecting Gold’s rally to extend aggressively in the short term. Market participants are also likely to focus on upcoming US inflation data, with the Consumer Price Index due Wednesday and the Producer Price Index scheduled for Thursday. The reports could offer important clues about the Fed’s policy outlook and shape the next move in both the Dollar and Gold markets.

Technical Analysis

A decisive intraday move above both the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the April–June decline indicates that bullish momentum remains intact. This strengthens the case for a continued advance toward the 200-day SMA around $4,498, with further upside targets at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement near $4,515 and the 78.6% retracement level around $4,669.

On the downside, initial support is located at the 50% retracement level near $4,406, followed closely by the 100-day SMA around $4,389. A deeper pullback could expose the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at roughly $4,297, while stronger support emerges near the 23.6% retracement around $4,162. Beyond that, the major downside reference remains the cycle low near $3,945.

• WTI crude has experienced a significant pullback, sliding from above $92 a barrel in late July to below $76. Despite the sharp retreat, the futures curve has yet to signal a complete bearish reversal, as strong backwardation persists, indicating that supply-related risks are still being priced into the market.
• At the same time, US market fundamentals remain uneven rather than outright weak. Conflicting trends in demand and inventory data continue to paint a mixed picture, limiting conviction behind a sustained bearish outlook.
• For now, the most probable outcome is continued volatility within a $77–$88 trading range. A lasting improvement in shipping conditions and smoother supply flows could drag WTI toward the $68–$75 zone. On the other hand, fresh disruptions to global energy transport routes or supply chains could revive bullish sentiment and drive prices back toward the $92–$105 range.

American benchmark crude prices have dropped sharply as renewed optimism over a potential US-Iran agreement reduced geopolitical risk premiums. However, a strongly backwardated futures curve, tight inventories at Cushing, and subdued speculative positioning suggest the recent sell-off may be overextended.

WTI has weakened after Washington paused additional military action and discussions on shipping security resumed. Even so, both physical and derivatives markets continue to signal supply tightness, leaving the market exposed to another sharp rebound.

WTI’s decline looks more like a correction than a full normalization

WTI fell below $76 per barrel on Tuesday, marking a nearly 20% decline from its late-July peak above $92. The move followed repeated swings in sentiment driven by reports of progress and setbacks in negotiations involving the US and Iran.

While the retreat reflects a reduction in geopolitical risk premiums, it does not necessarily indicate that the underlying supply disruptions have been resolved. Markets have repeatedly priced in expectations of a settlement, only to see tensions, attacks, or shipping restrictions re-emerge.

Until tanker movements, insurance availability, and export flows improve consistently over an extended period, political statements alone are unlikely to confirm a lasting normalization.

The futures curve suggests caution toward the sell-off

The WTI futures curve remained deeply backwardated in late July. The front-month contract traded at $85.27, compared with $82.25 for the second-month contract and $70.41 for the twelfth-month contract. This left the M1–M2 spread at $3.02 per barrel and the M1–M12 spread close to $15.

Such pronounced backwardation indicates that buyers continue to pay a significant premium for immediate supply relative to oil delivered further into the future. Although part of that premium reflects geopolitical uncertainty, the curve’s shape does not align with expectations of an imminent supply surplus. It also provides positive roll yield for long positions, which could help prevent bearish momentum from becoming entrenched.

As a result, the curve points to a two-track outlook: near-term prices remain highly sensitive to developments in US-Iran relations, while longer-dated contracts are already pricing in a gradual return to more normal market conditions.

EIA data suggest limited inventory cushions rather than a true supply shortage

According to the latest EIA report, US commercial crude inventories increased by 2 million barrels to 411.7 million barrels in the week ending July 17. Despite the build, stockpiles remained about 6% below the five-year seasonal average. Meanwhile, inventories at Cushing, Oklahoma, declined by 674,000 barrels to 19.4 million barrels, leaving them more than 10 million barrels below the five-year norm.

Refined product inventories also remained relatively tight. Gasoline stocks were 7% below their five-year average, while distillate inventories were 10% below average, even after registering weekly increases. Refinery utilization stayed elevated at 96.1%, and total petroleum demand rebounded by just over 1 million barrels per day from the previous week.

The data do not present a uniformly bullish picture, as crude oil, gasoline, and distillate inventories all posted gains during the reporting period. However, inventory buffers remain thin in absolute terms, particularly at Cushing. As a result, any renewed supply disruption could have a more immediate impact on prompt crude prices than it would in a market with more comfortable stock levels.

US shale production is responding slowly, not flooding the market

US crude output fell by 63,000 barrels per day to 13.798 million barrels per day in the week ending July 17. Meanwhile, Baker Hughes reported 450 active oil rigs on July 24, down two from the previous week but still up ten from a month earlier and 38 above the same period in 2025.

The signal from shale activity remains mixed. Drilling has not deteriorated significantly, yet the latest decline in production does not point to an imminent surge in supply capable of offsetting a renewed disruption in Gulf energy flows. Moreover, changes in rig activity typically influence production with a considerable lag, making rig counts more relevant to the medium-term outlook than to short-term supply risks.

CFTC positioning indicates potential for another sharp market move

Data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) showed that non-commercial net long positions in WTI increased by nearly 38,500 contracts to roughly 120,100 contracts in the week ending July 28. The recovery was driven largely by short covering, with speculative short positions falling by about 33,600 contracts, while long positions increased by only around 4,800 contracts.

Despite the rebound, speculative positioning remains relatively light by historical standards. Net long exposure sits near the 11th percentile of the past three years, while overall speculative exposure, at roughly 6.5%, is around the 13th percentile. In other words, traders are no longer heavily positioned for a major collapse in prices, but bullish positioning is far from crowded.

This leaves room for significant volatility in either direction. A credible and lasting peace agreement could spark another wave of selling, while a renewed breakdown in negotiations could trigger both fresh short covering and new long buying, potentially accelerating any upside move in WTI prices.

WTI outlook: $77–$88 remains the most plausible near-term trading range

Current market conditions support a range-bound outlook rather than a firm directional target. Geopolitical developments continue to dominate short-term price action, with headlines surrounding US-Iran negotiations capable of moving front-month WTI contracts by several dollars before changes in inventories or production data have a meaningful impact.

At the same time, the structure of the futures curve argues against interpreting every positive diplomatic development as evidence of a lasting supply surplus. Deep backwardation continues to signal tight near-term market conditions and ongoing concerns about physical availability.

As a result, the most credible base-case scenario remains a trading range between $77 and $88 per barrel. A sustained improvement in shipping security, export flows, and regional stability could eventually push prices lower toward the $68–$75 area. However, until such normalization is clearly reflected in physical market indicators, downside potential may remain limited.

Conversely, any renewed escalation in geopolitical tensions, shipping disruptions, or supply-chain interruptions could quickly revive the risk premium, potentially triggering a sharp rebound in WTI as traders reprice near-term supply risks. The combination of tight inventories, pronounced backwardation, and relatively light speculative positioning means the market remains vulnerable to significant upside volatility despite the recent correction.

Bottom line

WTI prices around $80 per barrel no longer reflect the extreme risk premium that dominated the market during the most recent geopolitical escalation. However, market conditions are still far from fully normalized. Deep backwardation in the futures curve, low inventory levels at Cushing, and relatively light speculative positioning all indicate that downside moves driven by positive peace developments may be more gradual than any upside reaction triggered by renewed supply disruptions.

For the time being, the most likely scenario remains a volatile trading range between $77 and $88 per barrel. A sustained move below that band would likely require clear and verifiable evidence that Gulf shipping routes, insurance conditions, and export flows have returned to normal. Conversely, a breakout above the range would become increasingly probable if negotiations break down and physical supply conditions deteriorate once again.

In short, while geopolitical risk premiums have eased, the underlying market structure continues to reflect supply tightness, leaving WTI vulnerable to sharp upward repricing should disruptions re-emerge.

Silver advanced as lower oil prices followed a partial agreement on the Strait of Hormuz, helping to ease inflationary pressures. Softer-than-expected US ADP private employment data further boosted precious metals, reinforcing expectations of a more accommodative interest-rate outlook. Meanwhile, a positive 14-day RSI and a supportive Fed Sentiment Index continued to indicate solid and sustained bullish momentum for silver.

Silver (XAG/USD) extended its rally for a fourth straight session, trading near $62.20 per troy ounce during Thursday’s Asian session. The precious metal continued to benefit from improving market sentiment after an agreement to partially restore shipping through the Strait of Hormuz helped drive oil prices lower, easing concerns about inflationary pressures and the future path of interest rates.

The development follows a deal between Iran and Oman to establish a temporary maritime corridor through the key energy route, raising expectations for stronger Middle Eastern oil exports. A joint statement outlining the arrangement is reportedly nearing completion. Although the shipping channel is expected to remain operational for two to four months, Iranian officials emphasized that the measure should not be viewed as a full reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.

Oil market structure points to speculation-driven moves

Analysts at TD Securities argue that recent swings in oil prices appear to be driven more by speculative positioning than by any meaningful change in supply-demand fundamentals. They note that oil timespreads have remained relatively strong, indicating that traders reacting to headlines are largely behind the recent volatility rather than a loosening of physical market conditions. According to the firm, robust timespreads continue to signal a fundamentally tight crude market despite heightened geopolitical risks and speculative trading activity.

At the same time, weaker US labor market data added another layer of support for precious metals. ADP data released Wednesday showed private-sector employment increased by only 44,000 jobs in July, down sharply from 98,000 in June and below expectations of 70,000. Investors are now turning their attention to upcoming US labor indicators, including Thursday’s Initial Jobless Claims and Friday’s Nonfarm Payrolls report, for further clues on the economic outlook and Federal Reserve policy direction.

Fed’s Cook highlights inflation risks while leaving door open for future rate hikes

Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook delivered remarks that carried a moderately hawkish tone, earning a score of 7.2/10 on the FXS Speechtracker, slightly above the historical average of 6.5/10. Her comments acknowledged the resilience of the US economy and labor market but emphasized that inflation risks remain a greater concern than employment weakness. Cook reiterated the Fed’s commitment to restoring price stability while stressing that additional rate hikes would only be considered if progress on disinflation stalls.

The speech was generally supportive of the US Dollar and reflected a cautious stance toward risk-sensitive assets. However, it stopped short of signaling any immediate tightening measures, leaving policymakers data-dependent.

Meanwhile, the FXS Fed Sentiment Index slipped 1.93 points to 140.92, suggesting a modest reduction in perceived hawkishness after the speech. Even so, the index remains comfortably above the neutral 100 level, indicating that overall Fed communication continues to lean firmly toward a restrictive policy stance despite the slight easing in tightening expectations.

Technical Analysis: Silver maintains bullish momentum

Silver (XAG/USD) trades near $62.20 and continues to display a constructive near-term outlook. The metal remains above its nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $59.76, reflecting ongoing bullish momentum, although the 50-day EMA at $62.69 continues to act as immediate resistance. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 56.81, reinforcing the view that buying pressure remains intact without entering overbought territory.

A decisive daily close above the 50-day EMA at $62.69 could strengthen bullish momentum and pave the way for a move toward the next major resistance zones at $90.03 and $96.62, although those targets remain considerably higher than current market levels. On the downside, initial support is located at the nine-day EMA of $59.76, followed by a stronger support area around $55.63. Overall, the technical backdrop remains tilted to the upside as long as Silver holds above its short-term moving average.