The past few sessions have delivered what traders both welcome and dislike—sharp moves followed by equally sharp uncertainty.
The dollar is still advancing into key resistance levels, while precious metals are attempting to stabilize after hitting several downside targets outlined earlier this week. The positive takeaway is that many of those projected scenarios have unfolded as expected. The key question now is whether this marks the beginning of a reversal or merely a pause before further declines.
As always, today’s daily closes are likely to provide clearer signals than intraday fluctuations.
Dollar Index (DX.F)
Let’s begin with a brief recap before moving into today’s update. On Tuesday, we noted:
“(…) If buyers manage to close the day above the upper boundary of the channel, the breakout would open the door toward (at least) the next resistance zone near 101.39–101.59 (…)”
From today’s perspective, the market has largely followed that roadmap. Sustained trading above the upper boundary of the rising channel allowed the Dollar Index to extend gains into the 101.39–101.59 resistance area during yesterday’s session.
So, what comes next?
Early warning signals are beginning to emerge. Momentum indicators are now displaying negative divergences relative to price, hinting that the recent breakout may soon face its first meaningful test.
However, bulls still retain the benefit of the doubt for now.
As long as price continues to close above the prior channel resistance, buyers remain in control and may still target the next upside zone around 101.74–101.81, where the 138.2% Fibonacci extension aligns with the May 2025 intraday high.
On the downside, if sellers step in and push the market to a daily close back below this key support area, the breakout would be invalidated. In that case, initial downside risk would shift toward a retest of the former breakout zone near 100.50–100.53.
Platinum (PL.F)
Before moving into today’s update, let’s revisit Tuesday’s comment:
“(…) If buyers fail to reclaim 1665 by today’s close (meaning they cannot hold the bullish gap from June 12), the odds of a move toward the 1600 region increase significantly, particularly if the dollar continues to strengthen. (…)”
Looking at the latest chart, platinum unfolded largely in line with the bearish scenario, testing both the support zone and the lower boundary of the declining orange channel.
What stands out now is the emergence of bullish divergences on daily momentum indicators. In other words, momentum is no longer fully confirming the recent decline — a pattern that is also beginning to appear in gold and silver.
Does this mean a reversal is underway?
Possibly.
But the technical picture has not confirmed it yet.
The key concern for bulls is that platinum still trades below both the June 11 low and the March low, while yesterday’s bearish gap between 1651 and 1662 continues to serve as a significant resistance zone.
For buyers, the objective is straightforward: close the gap. A daily close above 1662 would represent the first meaningful indication that bullish momentum is returning.
Until that happens, any rebound should be viewed primarily as a retest of previous breakdown levels rather than confirmation of a fresh uptrend.
Palladium (PL.F)
We begin today by revisiting Tuesday’s observation:
“(…) Price has now fallen below the lower boundary of the June 12 bullish gap.
That is not a development buyers wanted to see.
Why?
Because a sustained break below that gap would place the previously discussed double-bottom formation under serious pressure.
(…) The market could soon shift its focus toward another leg lower. (…)”
From today’s perspective, palladium has largely followed that bearish scenario.
Tuesday’s close below the lower boundary of the June 12 gap triggered another bearish gap during yesterday’s Asian session between 1238 and 1243. That move pushed prices beneath the June 8 and June 10 lows, effectively invalidating the developing double-bottom pattern.
However, bears encountered an obstacle.
Price reached a support zone defined by the 88.6% Fibonacci retracement and a green support line drawn from previous lows — an area that has successfully contained selling pressure over the past two sessions.
As a result, today’s Asian session opened with a modest bullish gap between 1174.90 and 1182, giving bulls an opportunity to attempt a recovery move.
The key level to monitor now is 1201.
Why does it matter?
Because without a daily close above that threshold, today’s rebound should still be viewed as little more than a retest of yesterday’s breakdown.
Even if buyers manage to reclaim 1201, they would still face the overhead bearish gap, which continues to represent a major obstacle to any broader recovery attempt.
Similar to gold, silver, and platinum, some indicators are beginning to show bullish divergences. However, at this stage, those divergences should be treated as early warnings rather than confirmed reversal signals.
Today’s Key Takeaways
For the Dollar:
- Keep an eye on the 101.39–101.59 resistance area
- A break above 101.59 could pave the way toward the 101.74–101.81 zone
- Bearish divergences are beginning to build and deserve attention
- A daily close back below former channel resistance would raise the risk of a larger pullback
- A move below 100.50–100.53 would strengthen the case for a deeper corrective decline
For Platinum:
- Watch the 1651–1662 resistance range closely
- A daily close above 1662 would provide the first meaningful bullish confirmation
- As long as price remains below 1662, rallies should be treated cautiously and sellers maintain the upper hand
- Bullish divergences are emerging, but confirmation is still lacking
- The next major support area is located near 1542
For Palladium:
- 1201 remains the key resistance level
- A daily close above 1201 would improve the near-term technical outlook
- Failure to reclaim 1201 would keep the current rebound classified as a breakdown retest
- Additional downside risk remains on the table until buyers provide stronger confirmation
Final Thoughts
This week continues to reinforce a lesson we’ve emphasized repeatedly in the Lab:
Technical clues are important — but confirmation is what truly matters.
Bullish divergences are beginning to appear across several precious metals markets. That development is worth monitoring, but until price action confirms those signals through breakouts and daily closes above critical resistance levels, they should be viewed as potential setups rather than actionable evidence.
And in trading, that distinction can make all the difference.
Stay disciplined, respect the technical levels, and allow confirmation — not anticipation — to guide the decision-making process.
THE ETERNAL SOVEREIGN 
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