EUR/USD climbed to 1.1667 on Thursday, while the US dollar recovered part of its previous losses as market sentiment stayed cautious amid a fragile US–Iran truce.
Tensions in the Strait of Hormuz remain elevated, with Iranian media reporting continued restrictions on tanker passage following renewed strikes in the region. Iranian officials have also accused the opposing side of breaching several ceasefire terms.
The dollar had fallen sharply in the prior session after news of a two-week truce, which triggered a decline in oil prices and briefly eased inflation concerns.
Additional pressure came from the Federal Reserve’s latest meeting minutes. Some policymakers signaled openness to rate hikes to curb inflation, although most still expect policy easing to follow later.
Looking ahead, investors are focusing on key US macroeconomic data, including consumer spending figures, the PCE price index, and the upcoming CPI report, all of which are likely to shape expectations for the Fed’s next policy moves and near-term market direction.
EUR/USD Technical Analysis
On the H4 timeframe of EUR/USD, price action is consolidating around the 1.1683 level. A corrective downside move is anticipated, with 1.1606 seen as the initial target, followed by a potential rebound back toward 1.1683. From a technical perspective, this outlook is supported by the MACD, where the signal line remains above the zero line but is trending decisively downward, indicating sustained bearish momentum and the likelihood that the downward pressure may continue in the near term.
On the H1 timeframe, EUR/USD is developing the structure for a potential next downside move toward the 1.1616 area. Once this level is reached, a rebound toward 1.1666 is anticipated, followed by a subsequent decline toward 1.1494. From a technical standpoint, this outlook is supported by the Stochastic oscillator, as its signal line remains below the 50 level and continues to slope downward toward 20, indicating sustained bearish pressure.
Summary
EUR/USD remains supported, although the US dollar has recovered some losses as tensions in the US-Iran truce begin to resurface. Ongoing reports of restricted tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz and claims of ceasefire violations have brought renewed caution to the markets. The latest Fed minutes showed a split committee, with some policymakers considering rate hikes while others favor future easing, further adding to policy uncertainty. Ahead of upcoming US inflation and consumer data releases, the pair’s short-term outlook remains unclear. From a technical perspective, a near-term decline looks more likely, while the broader trend will largely depend on whether the fragile truce holds or geopolitical risks escalate again.
THE ETERNAL SOVEREIGN 
Leave a comment