Weekly stock picks: buy ExxonMobil and sell Nike this week.

• The coming week will be driven by key U.S. data releases, including the jobs report and retail sales figures, alongside ongoing developments in the Iran conflict.
• ExxonMobil is highlighted as a momentum opportunity, supported by increased oil price volatility stemming from Middle East supply risks.
• In contrast, Nike is seen as a stock to avoid ahead of its earnings release, with concerns over potentially weak results and cautious forward guidance.

U.S. equities fell sharply in a broad-based selloff on Friday, with both the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the Nasdaq Composite slipping into correction territory as investors grew concerned about the global economic fallout from the war in Iran.

The S&P 500 extended its losing streak to a fifth consecutive week, falling 2.1%, while the tech-focused Nasdaq Composite dropped 3.2% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average declined 0.9%.

Looking ahead, investors will focus on the upcoming U.S. employment report, a key economic release expected to show around 56,000 job additions and an unemployment rate of 4.4%, alongside ongoing monitoring of the second month of the Iran conflict. The payrolls data is scheduled for April 3, when U.S. markets will be closed for the Good Friday holiday.

Retail sales for February and manufacturing activity data are also scheduled for release next week.

On Monday, Jerome Powell will participate in a moderated discussion at Harvard University, with his remarks likely to influence market sentiment.

On the corporate side, Nike is set to report earnings on Tuesday, while the majority of first-quarter results will come later in the earnings season.

Overall, the focus remains on the week ahead—Monday, March 30 to Friday, April 3—as investors position for key macro data, central bank commentary, and early corporate earnings, along with one stock expected to outperform and another at risk of further downside.

Buy Idea: ExxonMobil

ExxonMobil emerges as the top pick to buy this week, supported by a notable surge in global oil prices as markets react to heightened fears of supply disruptions tied to the ongoing U.S.–Israeli conflict with Iran. Since the outbreak of the war, crude benchmarks have climbed sharply amid growing concern that the turmoil could choke flows through the strategically vital Strait of Hormuz.

U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude has surged more than 70% year-to-date, trading near $100 per barrel, while Brent crude futures have climbed above $105 and briefly approached $110 during intraday trading on Friday.

Despite periodic pullbacks and speculation around potential ceasefires, geopolitical risk premiums remain elevated, helping to sustain higher energy prices in the near term.

ExxonMobil is well positioned to benefit from this environment, given its large upstream portfolio, including major production assets in the Permian Basin and Guyana. As a result, each $10 increase in crude prices could add billions of dollars in incremental annual cash flow.

Notably, XOM is trading close to its 52-week high of $171.23. While volatility has increased, the stock continues to demonstrate strong resilience, reflected in its relatively low 1-year beta of 0.27, suggesting limited sensitivity to broader market swings even amid turbulence.

This stability reinforces ExxonMobil’s appeal as a buy or add at current levels, particularly as geopolitical tensions continue to support higher crude prices.

Trade Setup:

• Entry: Around current levels (~$171.00)
• Exit Target: $180.00 (approx. +5.3%)
• Stop-Loss: $165.60 (approx. -3.5%)

Stock to Offload: Nike

Nike, by contrast, is the stock to avoid or sell this week, as it heads into its upcoming earnings release facing multiple challenges. The sportswear giant is scheduled to report fiscal Q3 results on Tuesday at 4:15 PM ET after the market close, and expectations remain weak.

Despite its globally recognized brand, Nike has been under pressure in recent quarters due to weakening consumer demand, rising competitive pressure, and a series of strategic setbacks.

Options markets are currently pricing in an earnings-related move of roughly ±9%, suggesting significant volatility ahead, with downside risk that could drive the stock toward multi-year lows.

Nike is projected to report a 45% year-over-year decline in adjusted EPS to $0.30, with revenue expected to slip 1% to around $11.2 billion. The weaker outlook reflects soft demand in key regions—especially China—along with inventory overhang, higher tariff pressures, and intensifying competition.

Any disappointing forward guidance could further dampen investor sentiment, as the market increasingly questions when Nike’s turnaround strategy under new leadership and restructuring efforts will begin to deliver sustained growth.

Meanwhile, competitors such as On, Hoka, and Alo Yoga continue to take share in both performance and lifestyle segments, gradually eroding Nike’s dominance. At the same time, Nike’s premium pricing strategy is becoming more challenging in an increasingly value-sensitive consumer environment.

Nike (NKE) is currently trading just above its 52-week low at around $51.20, extending a persistent downtrend marked by a 16.8% decline over the past month.

Heading into a key earnings release, management has already flagged continued headwinds, and the combination of elevated valuation concerns and weak price momentum suggests the stock may remain under pressure.

Although the RSI indicates oversold conditions from a technical standpoint, the absence of clear positive catalysts raises the risk that attempting to “buy the dip” could be premature.

Trade Setup:

• Entry: Near current levels (~$51.15)
• Target: $48.00 (approx. +5.5% downside move)
• Stop-loss: $53.24 (approx. 4.4% risk)

Sources: Jesse Cohen