EUR/USD holds above a one-week low but remains under pressure, with downside risks building near the 1.1500 level.

• EUR/USD trades sideways near a one-week low and appears prone to further downside.
• Rising geopolitical tensions continue to support the US dollar, likely limiting any upside in the pair.
• The technical outlook also leans bearish, reinforcing expectations for deeper declines.

EUR/USD edges slightly higher after revisiting a one-week low earlier Monday, holding near the key 1.1500 level in the Asian session. However, gains appear limited as escalating geopolitical tensions continue to support demand for the safe-haven US dollar, weighing on the pair.

Reports indicate the Pentagon may be gearing up for prolonged ground operations in Iran, while the involvement of Iran-backed Houthi forces in Yemen adds to fears of a broader Middle East conflict. This keeps investor sentiment fragile. At the same time, rising energy prices are stoking inflation concerns and reinforcing expectations of a hawkish Federal Reserve, further underpinning the USD and capping EUR/USD upside.

Technically, the short-term outlook remains slightly bearish, with prices staying below the flat 200-hour EMA near 1.1550. Momentum indicators show indecision, as MACD hovers around neutral levels and RSI sits near 43, indicating a mild seller advantage without strong downside momentum.

On the upside, resistance is seen at 1.1535, followed by 1.1550. A sustained break above this zone could shift sentiment and pave the way toward 1.1580. On the downside, support lies at 1.1490, with further weakness exposing 1.1475. A decisive break below this level would reinforce bearish pressure and open the path toward 1.1450.

EUR/USD hourly chart

Sources: Haresh Menghani