USD/CAD edges lower within its range, drifting toward 1.3650.

• USD/CAD remains rangebound with a slight bearish tilt
• Momentum indicators continue to signal consolidation

USD/CAD is still under pressure, trading within the range that has persisted since mid-February. The pair is confined between the 20-day and 50-day simple moving averages (SMAs), fluctuating within the narrow 1.3645–1.3700 zone. While the Canadian dollar faces pressure from a stronger US dollar, it is finding some support as rising oil prices—driven by the ongoing Middle East tensions—provide underlying demand.

Technical indicators highlight the subdued market conditions seen in recent weeks. The RSI is hovering around the neutral 50 level, reflecting a lack of strong momentum, while the MACD is clustering near its zero line and signal line, suggesting limited potential for a near-term upward move.

Recently, the pair has been drifting toward the lower end of the range after multiple rejections at the short-term descending trendline. Immediate support lies at the 20-day SMA around 1.3645, just above the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the November–January decline at 1.3635. A drop below these levels could open the door to further support at 1.3575, followed by the four-month low near 1.3471, last recorded in late January.

On the upside, a clear break above the 50-day SMA and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement around 1.3730—where the short-term descending trendline converges—could shift the outlook to a more bullish tone. Such a breakout would pave the way for a move toward the 200-day SMA near 1.3809, which aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement level. Notably, the 200-day SMA recently formed a death cross with the 50-day SMA, reinforcing the technical resistance against a sustained upward move.

Overall, USD/CAD is showing fading momentum as it drifts closer to the lower boundary of its multi-week consolidation range, with the earlier rebound from the four-month low beginning to lose steam. Although the broader downward trend is still in place, downside pressure may remain contained as long as the pair stays above the 20-day SMA.