Nasdaq 100 Weakness Weighs on S&P 500 as Valuation Concerns Intensify

Stocks came under heavy pressure, even as the S&P 500 ended the session with a relatively modest 85-basis-point decline. Losses were concentrated in technology and software, with the Nasdaq 100 sliding more than 1.5% and the XLK technology ETF falling over 2%. The selloff in software has been particularly severe, with several names now trading below their 2022 lows. Adobe, for instance, closed at its weakest level since October 2019.

In some ways, the current environment echoes the shift from 2021 into 2022. The crucial difference is that the Federal Reserve is now in an easing cycle, whereas policy was tightening back then. Oil prices were also racing toward $100 at the time, while this week they have struggled to stay above $60. Even so, the pattern is familiar: the Software ETF (IGV) peaked well ahead of the S&P 500 and helped pull the broader market lower, a dynamic that has also played out across several other market segments.

Pressure has also resurfaced in private equity stocks, with many now trading below their November lows.

Meanwhile, consumer staples—tracked by XLP—are surging to record highs in an unusually sharp move, reinforcing the view that markets are undergoing a broader re-rating of risk. This shift may reflect growing expectations of multiple compression, driven either by concerns that a new Fed chair could be less supportive of markets and liquidity, or by an increasing tendency among investors to separate winners from losers in the AI race.

I see this mainly as a re-pricing of risk and the early phase of multiple compression, a view that is reinforced by Microsoft’s (NASDAQ: MSFT) P/E ratio.

Sources: Michael Kramer