When will the German IFO Survey be released, and what impact could it have on the EUR/USD exchange rate?

Overview of the German IFO Survey

Germany’s IFO Institute is set to release its January Business Survey on Monday at 09:00 GMT.

The headline IFO Business Climate Index is forecast to edge up to 88.1 in January, from 87.6 in December. In the previous release, the Current Assessment Index stood at 85.6, while the Expectations Index came in at 89.7.

How might the German IFO Survey influence the EUR/USD exchange rate?

EUR/USD could trade sideways if the German IFO Business Survey meets expectations, as heightened safe-haven demand continues to cap upside momentum despite the pair opening with a gap higher. Meanwhile, the Euro may hold relatively steady after Eurozone PMI figures signaled weakness in the services sector in January, reinforcing expectations that the European Central Bank (ECB) will keep interest rates unchanged. Earlier data from Germany was more constructive, with the Services PMI exceeding forecasts and remaining in expansionary territory, while the Manufacturing PMI showed improvement but stayed below the 50 threshold.

The pair comes under pressure as the US Dollar regains intraday strength, supported by rising risk aversion linked to trade and geopolitical concerns. US President Donald Trump warned of potential 100% tariffs on Canadian imports should Ottawa pursue a trade agreement with China. Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney clarified that Canada has no intention of negotiating a free trade deal with Beijing. Trump also noted that a US aircraft carrier strike group is en route to the Middle East amid escalating tensions with Iran.

From a technical perspective, EUR/USD pulls back after opening at four-month highs and is trading near 1.1860 at the time of writing. Despite the dip, the broader bullish structure remains intact, with the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovering around 69.00, indicating strong—though stretched—momentum. The pair could attempt a retest of the four-month peak at 1.1897, close to the key psychological resistance at 1.1900. On the downside, immediate support is seen at the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) near 1.1739.

Sources: Fxstreet