THE ETERNAL SOVEREIGN

Tag: market

  • Bitcoin Falters as Stocks Slide — Are We Headed for a 2008-Style Crisis?

    Gold, silver, and mining stocks did initially move higher, but the rally was short-lived. Prices reversed intraday and then pushed lower, with the declines continuing today—benefiting all of our open trading positions. Hopefully, you followed the recommendation to short bitcoin, as previously emphasized.

    The key question now is whether the corrective rebound has already run its course. In today’s analysis, the focus is on bitcoin and the equity market, as both remain closely linked to the performance of precious metals.

    At this point, the odds appear evenly balanced. I’d put the chances at roughly 50/50, largely due to the factors driving the current pullback, at least over the near term.

    Looking Beyond the U.S. Dollar

    The U.S. Dollar Index has rallied recently, and while it was one of the drivers behind last week’s decline in precious metals, it does not account for this week’s weakness, as the USDX has been relatively subdued.

    So what drove the sharp selloff in silver and mining stocks? What triggered the move—aside from the fact that both markets were extremely overbought from a technical standpoint?

    The key driver was the sharp drop in equities. While the S&P 500’s decline may not appear dramatic on the surface, it is notable given the unusually low volatility that had prevailed in recent months.

    That situation is likely to shift. Some traders may even consider exposure to VIX-related instruments or call options, though shorting bitcoin arguably offers greater leverage.

    Equities have moved back toward their recent lows, and silver and mining stocks followed suit. This type of synchronized behavior is typical—and closely mirrors the market dynamics observed in 2008.

    And this is where the situation turns especially grim

    The stock market is now in a position similar to where it stood last year. After multiple attempts, it failed to hold a breakout above the prior year’s highs, effectively invalidating that move. The market also peaked shortly after reaching the vertex formed by earlier support and resistance lines.

    If this pattern plays out again, the S&P 500 could fall toward the 6,300 area in the near term, stage a corrective rebound, and then slide further toward roughly 5,500.

    Could it really drop that far?

    Yes.

    And in fact, a move to 5,500 may not mark the end of the market’s broader decline.

    The AI Bubble Is Bursting

    If the AI bubble does burst—and the sharp selloff in bitcoin suggests that risk appetite may already be cracking—the broader stock market could face a severe downturn. Much of the market’s prior strength was driven by aggressive buying in tech and AI-related names in the first place.

    On the topic of bitcoin, here’s what I noted in yesterday’s Gold Trading Alert when discussing its recent “rebound”:

    And while we’re on the subject of rebound magnitude, this is bitcoin’s rebound that barely qualifies as one. While prices did tick higher briefly, the move is almost imperceptible when viewed against the scale of the prior decline, visible only on very short-term charts.

    This further underscores bitcoin’s underlying weakness and reinforces the case that gains on our short positions were likely to expand in the near term.

    And that is precisely what unfolded.

    The encouraging takeaway is that bitcoin still appears to have further downside ahead, suggesting our profits are likely to continue growing. The next meaningful support sits just below $60,000, though a brief drop toward the $50,000 level—a key round number and prior low—remains possible.

    Such a move could, but does not necessarily have to, spark a rebound similar to the consolidation seen in 2024. If that scenario unfolds, it would likely form the right shoulder of a head-and-shoulders pattern, which could ultimately point to a much deeper decline toward the $30,000–$35,000 range.

    So what does all of this mean for the precious metals market?

    It suggests that a 2008-style crisis could indeed unfold again in the coming months.

    This is a critical point. Although there is limited data to confirm it conclusively, silver and mining stocks have so far shown a strong correlation with the broader equity market’s performance.

    Sources: Przemyslaw Radomski

  • Gold and Silver Movements Depend on US–Iran Talks

    Assessing the daily charts for gold and silver futures against a backdrop of rising trader anxiety, it is clear that the outcome of the meeting between U.S. and Iranian diplomats could soon determine the next directional move once markets receive clearer signals.

    Volatility in both gold and silver futures has surged, leaving prices highly sensitive to the meeting’s outcome. Gold futures opened at $4,722.30, dipped to an intraday low of $4,671.74, and then rallied to trade near the session high around $4,907—just below immediate resistance at $4,938.55. This price action reflects mounting concern as U.S.–Iran talks begin amid fears of a potential direct conflict.

    Despite the heightened tension, the situation remains unresolved. The U.S. is reportedly pressing Iran to freeze its nuclear program, dismantle its uranium stockpile, and expand discussions to include ballistic missiles, regional proxy support, and human rights issues. Iran, however, has stated that talks will be limited strictly to its nuclear program, and it remains unclear whether these fundamental differences have been bridged.

    In recent weeks, President Donald Trump has warned of military action if a deal is not reached, while the U.S. has deployed thousands of troops and significant naval and air assets to the region. Iran has responded with threats of retaliation, including strikes on U.S. military targets in the Middle East and Israel.

    This marks the first direct engagement between U.S. and Iranian officials since last June’s Israel–Iran conflict, during which U.S. forces struck Iran’s three primary nuclear facilities. Iran has since claimed that its uranium enrichment activities ceased following those attacks.

    Meanwhile, precious metals have endured an extended selloff since last week. Initial pressure stemmed from President Trump’s nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve chair, a move interpreted as less dovish and supportive of a stronger U.S. dollar. The dollar is now on track for its strongest weekly performance since early October, with soft labor data doing little to halt its advance.

    Looking ahead, any indication that talks may ease tensions between the U.S. and Iran could spark renewed selling in gold and silver, even though both futures have already rebounded modestly from their intraday lows. At this stage, dissecting technical rebounds or exhaustion signals may be premature. Instead, the focus remains squarely on the diplomatic outcome and whether it ultimately de-escalates the situation—or deepens existing tensions.

    Looking at the current positioning of the spot gold–silver ratio, today’s session saw it test an intraday high of 72.77 and a low of 65.10, with the ratio currently trading around 66.39. This movement suggests that gold and silver futures may revisit price levels last seen between December 1 and 16, 2025—when gold futures were trading in the $4,207 to $4,340 range and silver futures were between $57 and $65.

    Gold futures are currently trading above the key 50-EMA support near $4,580, while remaining capped below the immediate 9-EMA resistance around $4,885, after successfully holding above the short-term 20-EMA support at approximately $4,824.

    Meanwhile, silver futures are holding above the key 100-EMA support near $62.692, but continue to trade below the immediate resistance at the 50-EMA around $74.252.

    In summary, any constructive outcome from the meeting could prompt renewed selling pressure across both precious metals, while renewed disagreement between the two countries may spark a bout of buying. However, any upside could remain vulnerable to fresh selling, as follow-up commentary from the U.S. President after the meeting is likely to play a decisive role in shaping market sentiment.

    Sources: Satendra Singh

  • Qualcomm Returns to Its 2020 Price Levels — Red Flag or Buying Chance?

    After posting disappointing earnings after the market closed on February 4, Qualcomm (NASDAQ: QCOM) left investors questioning what has gone wrong. The stock has since fallen below $140, down from $185 just a month ago—a sharp decline in a short time, capped by a steep selloff following Thursday morning’s earnings reaction.

    Most notably, Qualcomm has now erased all the gains it painstakingly built over the past two years. The stock has fallen back to its 2020 levels—an unsettling spot for a company that has consistently positioned itself as a semiconductor player well placed to benefit from the AI boom.

    Heading into earnings with already fragile sentiment, Qualcomm’s Q1 results did little to reinforce confidence in its long-term story. (Qualcomm’s fiscal year runs ahead of the calendar year.) While the headline figures stopped short of a major miss, management’s downbeat forward guidance was enough to spark another sharp deterioration in investor sentiment. That said, does this selloff present an opportunity for risk-tolerant investors, or was the pessimistic outlook a warning that’s simply too loud to dismiss? Let’s dig in.

    Why Long-Term Investors Should Take This as a Red Flag

    The key concern raised by the latest report is what it reveals about Qualcomm’s underlying structural headwinds. Management cited continued industry pressures stemming from memory supply limitations and weaker handset demand. While these challenges are not exclusive to Qualcomm, they carry greater weight given the company’s ongoing reliance on smartphones, despite its efforts to diversify. Automotive, Internet of Things (IoT), and licensing are still presented as growth drivers, but so far they have not been sufficient to counterbalance downturns in the core business when market conditions weaken.

    This is significant because Qualcomm has a history of failing to sustain upside momentum. Each time enthusiasm builds around a rally or its diversification story, the stock has ultimately reversed course, and the latest selloff aligns uncomfortably well with that pattern. As a result, the market is once again justified in questioning whether Qualcomm can generate lasting growth rather than short-lived recoveries.

    Analyst sentiment has also clearly deteriorated. In response to the earnings release, several firms reiterated neutral ratings or downgraded their outlooks. In some instances, the commentary turned explicitly bearish, with HSBC noting that it may be “difficult to forecast a potential bottom.”

    The consequence is a meaningful erosion of credibility. Long-term shareholders who endured multiple cycles are now faced with a stock that has delivered little progress over the past five years, despite repeated assurances of strategic transformation. Viewed through that lens, this earnings report appears less like a reset and more like a clear warning sign.

    Where Short-Term Traders May Spot an Opportunity

    That said, while the long-term outlook appears impaired, the near-term technical picture may be telling a different story. The speed and severity of the selloff have driven Qualcomm into deeply oversold territory, with momentum indicators reaching extremes rarely seen over the past decade. While this does not guarantee a sustained recovery, it does raise the likelihood of a sharp relief bounce, particularly as selling pressure begins to fade.

    There are already tentative signs of this process taking shape. After opening sharply lower in the session following earnings, the stock began to find support by the afternoon. How this behavior develops in the days ahead will be worth watching.

    Even among analysts who have adopted a more cautious stance, many updated price targets still sit well above current levels. Bank of America, for instance, maintains a $155 target, while Cantor Fitzgerald sees value up to $160. Rosenblatt went a step further, reiterating its Buy rating with a $190 price target.

    Whether those targets are ultimately justified over the coming year remains open to debate, but in the near term, they support the notion that bearish sentiment may have become stretched.

    How to Approach the Current Setup

    The crucial point is to clearly distinguish between investing and trading. From a long-term investment perspective, this report surfaces some uncomfortable issues. Until Qualcomm demonstrates an ability to deliver consistent growth and maintain its gains, a cautious and patient approach is justified.

    For short-term traders, however, the setup looks different. Deeply oversold conditions, sharp price swings, and widespread pessimism can create conditions where relief rallies are swift and potentially lucrative—provided risk is managed carefully.

    Sources: Sam Quirke

  • BoJ’s Masu said further rate hikes are needed to complete policy normalization.

    BoJ board member Kazuyuki Masu said Japan has entered an inflation phase as policy normalization moves forward.

    Japan has shifted into an inflationary phase.

    • Must remain vigilant as yen weakness–driven inflation lifts overall and underlying prices.
    • BOJ is closely watching FX moves and their impact on the economy and prices.
    • BOJ is expected to keep raising rates if economic and price forecasts are realized.
    • Underlying inflation is still below 2% but is approaching that level.
    • Deflationary practices are being eliminated as Japan enters an inflationary phase.
    • Rates must be raised in a timely and appropriate manner to prevent underlying inflation from exceeding 2%.
    • Policy must remain cautious to avoid excessive hikes that could derail the nascent cycle of rising inflation and wages.
    • BOJ will closely assess market conditions and the future pace of bond purchases.
    • Particular attention is on processed food prices excluding rice as a key inflation indicator.
    • Inflation dynamics must be assessed to determine whether they are driven by supply alone or both supply and demand.
    • Japan’s real interest rate remains deeply negative.
    • The neutral rate is only one reference point for policy decisions.
    • As policy rates approach neutral, BOJ must more carefully examine prices, employment, and financial markets.
    • Further rate hikes are needed to complete policy normalization.

    Market reaction

    At the time of writing, USD/JPY is trading 0.28% lower on the day at 156.60.

    Sources: Lallalit Srijandorn

  • Yen edges higher from two-week low against dollar but upside remains limited

    Japanese yen bears trimmed positions ahead of Japan’s snap election on Sunday, allowing the currency to recover modestly. Growing speculation of an imminent Bank of Japan rate hike, combined with a broader risk-off mood, has also supported the safe-haven yen. Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar paused its recent rebound from a four-year low, adding further downside pressure on USD/JPY.

    The Japanese yen attracted modest buying during Asian trading on Friday, appearing to snap a five-day losing streak against the U.S. dollar after touching a two-week low in the previous session. Traders remain alert to the possibility of coordinated Japan–U.S. intervention to curb further yen weakness, while a shift in global risk sentiment and elevated market volatility have boosted demand for the currency’s safe-haven appeal. Expectations for a more hawkish Bank of Japan have also provided underlying support to the yen.

    Data released earlier showed Japan’s household spending fell sharply in December, highlighting the impact of higher prices on consumer activity and reinforcing expectations that the BoJ could move toward a rate hike sooner rather than later. That said, concerns about Japan’s fiscal position and ongoing political uncertainty may limit aggressive bullish positioning in the yen. In addition, the U.S. dollar’s recent recovery from a four-year low could help cap further declines in USD/JPY as markets look ahead to Japan’s snap lower house election on February 8.

    Yen finds support from hawkish BoJ outlook and improving risk sentiment

    Data released earlier on Friday showed that Japan’s Household Spending fell 2.6% YoY in December 2025, reversing a 2.9% increase in the previous month. The sharp contraction highlights the drag from elevated living costs on consumption and reinforces the Bank of Japan’s resolve to tackle inflation, strengthening the case for an earlier interest rate hike.

    This view is supported by the Summary of Opinions from the BoJ’s January meeting, which revealed that policymakers discussed rising price pressures stemming from a weak Japanese Yen and agreed that further rate hikes would be appropriate over time. These factors helped the JPY attract modest buying during the Asian session.

    The Yen also benefited from a risk-off impulse, as Asian equities extended losses for a second straight day following a deepening selloff in global tech stocks. Meanwhile, the US Dollar paused its recent advance to a two-week high, prompting traders to trim USD/JPY long positions ahead of Japan’s snap lower house election on Sunday, February 8.

    Japan’s Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) is widely expected to secure a decisive victory, which would strengthen her control over parliament and provide greater scope to pursue aggressive pro-stimulus policies. However, markets remain concerned that expansionary fiscal plans could further strain Japan’s already fragile public finances, limiting the Yen’s upside.

    From the US, data released Thursday showed that Initial Jobless Claims rose to 231K for the week ending January 31, up from 209K and above expectations of 212K, adding to weak private-sector employment data released earlier in the week. Further evidence of labor market softening came from the JOLTS report, which showed job openings falling to 6.542 million in December from a downwardly revised 6.928 million previously.

    The softer labor backdrop has reinforced expectations for additional Federal Reserve easing, with markets currently pricing in two more rate cuts in 2026. This has capped the US Dollar’s rebound from a four-year low and contributed to USD/JPY pulling back modestly from the two-week high above the 157.00 level touched on Thursday.

    Traders now await the preliminary Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index and inflation expectations, along with remarks from key FOMC members, for fresh directional cues later in the North American session. However, market reactions are likely to remain subdued ahead of Japan’s closely watched political event.

    USD/JPY buyers remain in control after breaking above the 200-period SMA resistance on the H4 chart.

    The overnight move above the 156.50 barrier, which aligns with the 200-period SMA on the 4-hour chart, marked an important catalyst for USD/JPY bulls. The gently rising SMA reflects a stable underlying uptrend, and prices remaining above it preserve a bullish tone. However, the MACD has dipped below its Signal line around the zero level, with the histogram turning negative and widening, pointing to a loss of upside momentum. Meanwhile, the RSI has retreated to 63 from overbought territory, highlighting a more tempered momentum backdrop.

    As long as USD/JPY holds above the rising 200-period SMA, upside risks remain favored. A sustained break below this level would shift the focus toward a corrective pullback. From a momentum perspective, continued expansion of the negative MACD histogram would strengthen downside risks, while a swift move back above zero would negate the bearish crossover. The RSI staying above 50 continues to support the bullish case, whereas a slide toward that level would signal weakening buying interest.

    Sources: Haresh Menghani

  • USD/CAD retreats toward 1.3700 as oil prices rebound

    USD/CAD edged lower as the commodity-linked Canadian dollar found support from a rebound in oil prices. Gains in WTI crude may be limited, however, after the U.S. and Iran agreed to hold talks in Oman on Friday, easing supply-related concerns. Meanwhile, the U.S. Dollar Index remained near two-week highs as markets continued to price in a slower pace of potential Federal Reserve rate cuts.

    USD/CAD traded largely flat around the 1.3700 level during Asian hours on Friday after paring earlier gains, as the Canadian dollar drew support from a rebound in oil prices. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude recovered to around $63.50 at the time of writing, although further upside appeared limited after the United States and Iran agreed to hold talks in Oman later in the day.

    Iran is expected to center discussions on its long-standing nuclear dispute with Western powers, while Washington is pushing to broaden the agenda to include Tehran’s ballistic missile program, its regional proxy activities, and human rights concerns.

    The USD/CAD pair could regain upward momentum as the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) remains close to two-week highs, underpinned by expectations for a slower pace of Federal Reserve rate cuts. Fed Governor Lisa Cook said she would not support additional easing without clearer evidence of cooling inflation, emphasizing greater concern over stalled disinflation than labor market softness.

    Markets also assessed the implications of Kevin Warsh’s nomination as the next Fed chair, noting his preference for a smaller balance sheet and a more restrained approach to rate reductions—factors that have also helped ease concerns about the Fed’s independence.

    Meanwhile, a series of U.S. labor market reports released this week pointed to cooling employment conditions, reinforcing dovish expectations for the Fed. Investors are now pricing in two rate cuts this year, beginning in June, with another potentially in September.

    Sources: Akhtar Faruqui 

  • EUR/USD edges higher toward 1.1770 as dovish Fed outlook boosts euro

    EUR/USD inched higher toward the 1.1770 area, finding modest support as the U.S. dollar struggled to extend its recent rally. Rising expectations of a more dovish Federal Reserve stance have capped further gains in the greenback. Meanwhile, the European Central Bank left interest rates unchanged at its policy meeting on Thursday, as widely expected.

    The EUR/USD pair edged higher toward the 1.1770 area during Asian trading on Friday, as the U.S. dollar eased amid growing speculation that the Federal Reserve could cut interest rates at its March policy meeting. The pair attracted modest buying interest as expectations for Fed easing gained traction.

    At the time of writing, the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the greenback against a basket of six major currencies, was down 0.1% at around 97.85, although it remained close to Thursday’s weekly high of 97.98.

    According to the CME FedWatch tool, the probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut—taking the fed funds rate to a 3.25%–3.50% range—at the March meeting has risen to 22.7%, from just 9.4% on Wednesday. Dovish Fed expectations have strengthened following a string of labor market indicators pointing to softer demand. December JOLTS data showed job openings fell to 6.542 million, well below estimates of 7.2 million and the prior 6.928 million. Meanwhile, ADP data released on Wednesday showed private sector payrolls rose by only 22,000 in January, down from 37,000 in December.

    On the other hand, the euro remained broadly pressured despite the European Central Bank’s policy decision on Thursday. The ECB left interest rates unchanged, as expected, and played down the recent dip in eurozone inflation, reaffirming that inflation is likely to stabilize around its 2% target over the medium term. The central bank also cautioned about an uncertain geopolitical backdrop.

    Sources: Sagar Dua

  • Silver plunges below $72.00 as fading safe-haven demand weighs

    Silver prices slipped to around $71.90 during the Asian session on Friday, pressured by profit-taking and easing geopolitical tensions that reduced demand for safe-haven assets. Meanwhile, U.S. initial jobless claims rose more than expected last week, coming in above market forecasts.

    Silver prices (XAG/USD) slid to around $71.90 during Asian trading on Friday, marking their lowest level since January 2, as the metal extended recent losses amid easing geopolitical tensions and profit-taking. Market participants are closely watching scheduled U.S.–Iran talks later in the day for further cues.

    Diminishing tensions between Washington and Tehran have weighed on safe-haven demand for precious metals. Iran has signaled it wants discussions to center on its long-running nuclear dispute with Western powers, while the U.S. is pushing to broaden the agenda to include Iran’s ballistic missile program, its alleged support for armed groups in the Middle East, and its human rights record.

    Analysts note that recent price action has been driven largely by speculative flows, leveraged positioning, and options-related trading rather than underlying physical demand. Sunil Garg, managing director at Lighthouse Canton, said a substantial buildup of speculative positions has yet to be fully unwound.

    Meanwhile, signs of softening in the U.S. labor market could limit further downside by pressuring the U.S. dollar and lending some support to dollar-denominated commodities. Data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics showed job openings unexpectedly fell in December to their lowest level since 2020, while layoffs increased. In addition, applications for unemployment benefits rose more than anticipated last week.

    Sources: Lallalit Srijandorn

  • Dollar Index slips below 98.00 as U.S. labor data signals cooling job market

    The U.S. Dollar Index edged lower as recent labor market data pointed to cooling employment conditions, reinforcing expectations of a more dovish Federal Reserve. CME FedWatch data showed markets pricing in a 77.3% probability that the Fed will keep rates unchanged at its March meeting, with the first rate cut now expected in June. Despite the dip, the DXY remained near two-week highs as investors continued to factor in a slower pace of potential rate cuts.

    The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the greenback against a basket of six major currencies, edged lower on Friday after posting gains over the previous two sessions, hovering around 97.90 during Asian trading hours. Market participants are awaiting the preliminary February Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index, due later in the North American session, for fresh direction.

    The dollar softened as recent U.S. labor market data signaled cooling employment conditions, reinforcing expectations of a more dovish Federal Reserve stance. Markets are now pricing in two rate cuts this year, beginning in June and potentially followed by another in September. CME FedWatch data indicate a roughly 77.3% probability that the Fed will keep rates unchanged at its March meeting, with expectations centered on a first cut in June.

    Labor Department figures showed initial jobless claims climbed to 231,000 in the week ended January 31, exceeding forecasts of 212,000 and the prior reading of 209,000. Meanwhile, ADP data revealed private payroll growth slowed sharply to 22,000 in January, well below expectations of 48,000 and the previous month’s revised 37,000.

    Despite the pullback, the DXY remained near two-week highs, supported by expectations for a slower pace of Fed easing. Fed Governor Lisa Cook said she would not support further rate cuts without clearer evidence of easing inflation, highlighting greater concern over stalled disinflation than labor market softness.

    Traders also assessed the implications of Kevin Warsh’s nomination as the next Fed chair, with markets noting his preference for a smaller balance sheet and a more restrained approach to rate cuts, while also easing concerns over the central bank’s independence.

    Sources: Akhtar Faruqui 

  • Crypto selloff intensifies as bitcoin tumbles nearly 50% from record high

    Bitcoin plunged on Thursday to its lowest level since mid-October 2024, as thinning liquidity and a broad selloff in global technology stocks renewed pressure on risk assets. The world’s largest cryptocurrency was last down 12.4% at $63,539.4 by 17:28 ET (22:28 GMT).

    The token has fallen in seven of the past eight sessions and is now down nearly 50% from its record high of around $126,000 reached in October 2025. Interactive Brokers chief strategist Steve Sosnick said the scale of the decline suggests the crypto market has moved beyond a normal cycle, describing it as a full-blown bear market given drawdowns of 40% to 50% or more.

    Tailwinds that once boosted crypto now turning into headwinds

    Bitcoin’s sharp selloff has intensified in recent days amid a broader rout in technology stocks, as investors rotate out of high-risk assets. According to Interactive Brokers strategist Steve Sosnick, several of the forces that fueled bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies’ rapid ascent in 2025 have now turned into headwinds.

    Strong inflows following the launch of bitcoin ETFs in January 2024, the Trump administration’s supportive stance toward digital assets, and substantial purchases by crypto-focused treasury firms all helped drive prices higher, Sosnick said. He added that crypto also benefited during the rally from minimal margin constraints, as many exchanges and dealers offered extremely high leverage. Unlike stocks and ETFs, which are limited by Regulation T and similar rules, this leverage allowed investors to amplify gains—an effect that is now accelerating losses as prices fall.

    After bitcoin surged to a record high above $126,000 on October 6, the broader cryptocurrency market experienced a sharp selloff just four days later. Analysts later described the move as a “flash crash,” attributing it to heavily leveraged dealers being forced to unwind positions amid margin-related losses.

    Interactive Brokers strategist Steve Sosnick said that as market momentum shifted, several of the factors that had previously supported cryptocurrencies began to turn into headwinds. He noted that while leverage can significantly amplify gains during rallies, it can also sharply magnify losses during downturns. Sosnick added that progress on anticipated crypto regulation stalled in Congress, while equity-focused investors rotated toward other opportunities as momentum faded. He also pointed out that although exchange-traded funds made it easy for investors to gain crypto exposure, they also enabled swift exits when sentiment turned.

    According to Sosnick, what began as a routine correction ultimately snowballed into a full-blown rout, mirroring selloffs seen in other assets that had posted outsized gains, including software stocks and precious metals.

    Dwindling liquidity

    Reports indicated that market liquidity was particularly thin, magnifying price swings and triggering a wave of forced liquidations as bitcoin fell through closely watched technical levels. The selloff was intensified by aggressive unwinding of leveraged positions—especially in derivatives markets—after bitcoin’s slide below $75,000 activated a series of stop-loss orders. Data from crypto analytics firm CoinGlass showed that nearly $770 million worth of cryptocurrency positions were liquidated over the past 24 hours.

    Crypto prices today: Altcoins slide, XRP tumbles 21%

    Most major altcoins also moved sharply lower on Thursday. Ethereum, the world’s second-largest cryptocurrency, fell 11.5% to $1,878.11, while XRP, the third-largest token, plunged 21% to $1.19. Solana and Cardano recorded steep losses as well, sliding 11.9% and 11.1%, respectively. Meme coins were also hit hard, with Dogecoin down 12.1% and the $TRUMP token sinking more than 14%.

    Sources: Anuron Mitra

  • Stocks slide as AI-driven selloff deepens, while crypto rebounds

    Global equities fell for a third straight session on Friday as the selloff on Wall Street intensified, while precious metals and cryptocurrencies were swept up in sharp volatility.

    MSCI’s broad Asia-Pacific index excluding Japan dropped 1%, extending losses for a second day, led by a 5% plunge in South Korea’s Kospi that triggered a brief trading halt shortly after the open. S&P 500 e-mini futures declined 0.2%, while Nasdaq e-mini futures slid 0.4%. IG market analyst Tony Sycamore said investors were increasingly questioning their exposure to assets that have driven markets over the past six months—namely AI, cryptocurrencies and precious metals—raising the risk of a deeper unwinding. U.S. stocks sold off overnight on fears that new AI models could erode software-sector profitability, with the S&P 500 turning negative for the year amid growing labor market concerns.

    U.S. employers announced a surge in layoffs in January, marking the highest level for the month in 17 years, according to data released Thursday by Challenger, Gray & Christmas.

    Precious metals rebounded from session lows but remained weaker on the day. Gold slipped 0.1% to $4,764.43, while silver plunged as much as 10% before paring losses, last down 1.4% at $70.26.

    Cryptocurrencies staged a rebound after suffering a $2 trillion market wipeout on Thursday. Bitcoin jumped 3.7% to $65,446.07 after earlier falling nearly 5% to a low of $60,008.52, while ether climbed 4.4% to $1,928.12 after reversing a prior 5.1% decline.

    The S&P 500 software and services index sank 4.6%, shedding roughly $1 trillion in market capitalization since January 28 in a selloff dubbed “software-mageddon.” Pepperstone’s head of research Chris Weston said aggressive unwinding of crowded positions had driven large capital flows, warning that some companies—particularly outside the so-called Magnificent Seven—could face difficulties later this year as capital markets become less accommodating.

    Amazon shares slid 11.5% in after-hours trading after the company projected capital spending to surge by more than 50% this year.

    Markets have also begun to price in a higher probability of Federal Reserve policy easing, though expectations still favor no change at the next meeting. Fed funds futures imply a 22.7% chance of a 25-basis-point rate cut at the Fed’s March 18 meeting, up from 9.4% the previous day, according to CME Group’s FedWatch tool.

    The U.S. dollar index was flat at 97.92, while the yield on the 10-year Treasury note fell 2.8 basis points to 4.18%. The yen strengthened 0.3% to 156.58 per dollar, and Japanese government bonds attracted buying ahead of Sunday’s election.

    In energy markets, Brent crude slipped 0.4% to $67.31.

    Sources: Reuters

  • Dollar ticks higher as euro, pound dip after central banks stand pat

    The U.S. dollar inched higher on Thursday, clawing back some strength amid ongoing volatility in equity markets, while attention turned to the euro and sterling following key central bank rate decisions. By 13:43 ET (18:43 GMT), the Dollar Index—which measures the greenback against a basket of six major currencies—was up 0.2% at 97.77, hovering near a two-week high and extending its rebound from levels close to four-year lows.

    Stock market volatility lends support to the dollar

    Heightened volatility across global equity markets—driven largely by concerns over stretched artificial intelligence spending—has prompted traders to rotate back into the U.S. dollar as a safe haven.

    Analysts at ING noted that a more challenging equity backdrop typically triggers a move away from risk and pro-cyclical currencies toward the dollar, a dynamic they said has likely provided the greenback with some support this week. They added that while it remains unclear whether the current correction in U.S. technology stocks has further to run, a fully invested buy side appears increasingly vulnerable to negative surprises.

    The dollar also found support late last week following the nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve chair, with markets viewing him as less dovish than previously anticipated. Meanwhile, private payrolls data pointed to a cooling U.S. labor market, although the recent brief government shutdown has delayed the release of key employment figures scheduled for Friday.

    Even so, several weak labor market signals emerged on Thursday. January job cuts rose to their highest level for that month since 2009, initial jobless claims exceeded expectations, and December job openings data fell short of forecasts.

    Euro and pound move into focus

    In Europe, the euro edged lower, with EUR/USD down 0.1% at 1.1799 after the European Central Bank left interest rates unchanged, in line with expectations. The ECB’s Governing Council said inflation is likely to stabilize around its 2% target over the medium term, while noting that the eurozone economy remains resilient despite a challenging global backdrop. Data released earlier in the week showed euro area CPI inflation eased to 1.7% year-on-year in January, from 1.9% in December.

    Commenting on the decision, Mark Wall, chief European economist at Deutsche Bank, said the ECB was striking a necessary balance between downside risks and underlying strengths, adding that holding rates steady appeared appropriate given external vulnerabilities alongside domestic resilience, partly supported by increased defence and infrastructure spending in Germany.

    Sterling also weakened, with GBP/USD falling 0.9% to 1.3544 after the Bank of England kept its benchmark rate unchanged. The Monetary Policy Committee said it expects inflation to return to its 2% target by the spring. Sanjay Raja, chief UK economist at Deutsche Bank, noted that while a rate cut was closer than anticipated, the meeting was more about positioning within the MPC, as rising economic trade-offs continue to fuel uncertainty over how restrictive current policy remains.

    Yen in focus ahead of weekend elections

    In Asian trading, USD/JPY edged 0.1% higher to 156.84, as the Japanese yen remained under pressure ahead of this weekend’s lower house elections. Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s party is widely expected to secure a larger majority, raising expectations of increased fiscal spending from Tokyo. Ongoing concerns about Japan’s stretched public finances have weighed heavily on the yen in recent weeks, with losses compounded by Takaichi’s remarks downplaying currency weakness.

    Elsewhere, USD/CNY dipped slightly to 6.9378, with the Chinese yuan hovering near its strongest level in almost three years. The currency has been supported by a series of firm midpoint fixings from the People’s Bank of China, keeping the pair comfortably below the psychologically important 7.00 level.

    The Australian dollar weakened, with AUD/USD sliding 0.4% to 0.6960, slipping back below 0.70 after two sessions of solid gains following a hawkish Reserve Bank of Australia meeting on Tuesday. The RBA raised interest rates by 25 basis points and upgraded its growth and inflation forecasts for the year.

    Sources: Anuron Mitra

  • Wall Street futures slide after Amazon’s capex guidance hits tech stocks

    U.S. stock index futures slipped on Thursday evening, extending Wall Street’s losses as the selloff in technology shares showed little sign of abating. Amazon.com led declines after forecasting a sharp increase in capital expenditures for 2026.

    Futures weakened after another steeply negative session on Wall Street, where technology stocks fell amid ongoing concerns over AI-driven disruption within the software sector. Investors were also unsettled by elevated spending across the industry, with Amazon’s outlook echoing similar guidance from other major tech firms. By 18:30 ET (23:30 GMT), S&P 500 Futures were down 0.5% at 6,789.25, Nasdaq 100 Futures slid 0.9% to 24,422.0, and Dow Jones Futures fell 0.3% to 48,857.0.

    Amazon plunges 11% after projecting higher-than-expected 2026 capex

    Amazon.com Inc (NASDAQ: AMZN) was among the biggest laggards in after-hours trading, plunging 11% following the release of its December-quarter earnings. The company projected capital expenditures of roughly $200 billion in 2026, far exceeding both last year’s spending and analyst estimates of about $146.1 billion.

    Quarterly profit came in at $1.95 per share, narrowly missing expectations, while the outlook for the current quarter also fell short as the e-commerce giant factored in rising AI-related costs. Revenue from Amazon Web Services—the core of the company’s artificial intelligence strategy—climbed 24% to $35.6 billion, topping analyst forecasts.

    Despite the strong AWS performance, investors were unsettled by the scale of the planned spending, amid growing uncertainty over when heavy AI investments will begin to generate meaningful returns. In sympathy, shares of Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT), Alphabet (NASDAQ: GOOGL), and Meta Platforms (NASDAQ: META)—all of which have recently outlined elevated AI spending plans for 2026—fell by as much as 3% in after-hours trade following Amazon’s results.

    Wall Street declines again on heavy tech losses, weak employment figures

    Wall Street benchmarks extended their decline on Thursday, led lower by the Nasdaq Composite, which fell 1.6%. The S&P 500 dropped 1.3%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average slid 1.2%. Both the Nasdaq and the S&P fell to their lowest levels since late November and mid-December, respectively.

    Technology stocks continued to be the main drag on U.S. equities, as investors grew increasingly concerned about elevated AI-related spending and the potential disruptive effects of artificial intelligence on the software sector. Additional pressure came from disruptions tied to AI’s heavy demand for memory chips. Qualcomm (NASDAQ: QCOM) tumbled 8.5% after warning about the impact of a global memory-chip shortage, while data from Counterpoint Research showed memory-chip prices have surged by as much as 90% quarter-on-quarter so far this quarter.

    Broader economic worries also weighed on sentiment. Data from Challenger indicated that U.S. layoffs in January rose to their highest level since the 2009 financial crisis. Weekly jobless claims came in above expectations, while December job openings data also fell short of forecasts, reinforcing concerns about a slowing labor market.

    Although signs of labor market weakness have raised expectations for additional Federal Reserve rate cuts, investors remained focused on the outlook for monetary policy under Kevin Warsh, President Donald Trump’s nominee to become the next Fed chair. Warsh has been perceived as a less dovish choice, a view that has also weighed on Wall Street sentiment.

    Sources: Ambar Warrick

  • Gold, silver extend losses as stronger dollar weighs on metals

    Gold and silver prices declined further in early Asian trading on Friday, extending steep losses from the previous session as profit-taking, easing geopolitical risks, and a stronger U.S. dollar continued to weigh on the metals complex. Silver remained the weakest performer after plunging around 15% on Thursday, while gold was trading nearly $1,000 per ounce below the record high reached last week.

    Spot gold slipped 0.6% to $4,751.13 an ounce by 19:56 ET (00:56 GMT), while April gold futures dropped 2.5% to $4,766.11. Spot silver fell 2.2% to $69.383 per ounce, although it stayed above Thursday’s lows near $63, while silver futures tumbled 8.1% to $70.378.

    OCBC analysts noted that the $70–$90 range has emerged as a key stabilization zone for silver, warning that a sustained break below this level could open the door to a deeper correction toward the $58–$60 area. They added, however, that holding within this range could allow bullish momentum to rebuild over time.

    Losses extended across the broader precious metals space, with spot platinum sliding 7.2% to $1,853.81 an ounce. Metal markets have been under sustained pressure since last week, initially triggered by U.S. President Donald Trump’s nomination of Kevin Warsh to succeed Jerome Powell as Federal Reserve chair. Warsh has been perceived as less dovish, fueling a rally in the dollar that has weighed heavily on metals.

    The U.S. currency was on track for its strongest weekly performance since early October, with softer labor market data failing to curb its advance. Meanwhile, easing tensions between the U.S. and Iran also dampened safe-haven demand for gold and silver, as the two sides were set to hold talks in Oman later in the day.

    Sources: Ambar Warrick

  • Oil prices were steady, heading for a weekly decline as US-Iran talks remained in focus.

    Oil prices slipped in Asian trading on Friday and were on track for a weekly loss, as markets focused on whether upcoming U.S.–Iran talks could ease Middle East tensions. Investors also priced in a lower risk premium and took profits after last week’s strong gains. Brent futures for April held at $67.58 a barrel, while WTI futures edged up 0.1% to $63.09 by 21:13 ET (02:13 GMT).

    U.S.–Iran negotiations are scheduled to be held in Oman.

    U.S. and Iranian officials are scheduled to hold talks in Oman later on Friday, as military tensions in the Middle East intensify following Washington’s deployment of at least two naval fleets to the region. Investors are optimistic that dialogue between Tehran and Washington could ease tensions and reduce the risk of a wider conflict, prompting traders to strip some geopolitical risk premium from oil prices this week.

    However, differences have emerged over the scope of the discussions, with Iran rejecting U.S. demands to address its missile program and insisting that talks will focus solely on its nuclear ambitions. Iran is a key global oil producer and sits alongside the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for global crude shipments.

    Oil set for weekly decline as profit-taking and a stronger dollar weigh

    Brent and WTI futures were down between 2.5% and 4% for the week, as prices came under pressure from profit-taking after six straight weeks of gains. Crude had earlier been supported by expectations of tighter supply, particularly after extreme weather in the U.S. disrupted output nationwide.

    Supply disruptions in Kazakhstan and concerns over an escalation of conflict in the Middle East also lent support to prices. However, sentiment shifted this week as traders locked in profits, while a broader selloff across commodities—driven by a strengthening U.S. dollar—further weighed on oil markets. The dollar was on track for its strongest weekly performance since October, as investors viewed Kevin Warsh, U.S. President Donald Trump’s nominee for the next Federal Reserve chair, as a less dovish choice.

    Sources: Ambar Warrick

  • S&P 500: Liquidity Worries Persist Amid Mixed Signals

    Stocks ended lower on Wednesday, though the S&P 500 slipped just 50 basis points. In contrast, the equal-weight S&P 500 ETF (RSP) gained nearly 90 basis points, highlighting a notable degree of dispersion beneath the surface. This divergence was reflected in the Dispersion Index, which climbed to 37.6 and is once again approaching the upper end of its historical range. As earnings season draws to a close, dispersion is likely to ease, with correlations gradually moving higher.

    The spread between the Dispersion Index and the three-month implied correlation index widened on Wednesday. As earnings season comes to an end, this gap is likely to narrow in the coming weeks as dispersion trades begin to unwind and correlations normalize.

    One explanation for the notable strength in Walmart (NASDAQ: WMT) and the broader consumer staples sector may be the rise in implied volatility. While IV typically increases ahead of earnings season, this year it appears to be climbing to levels well above those seen in prior quarters. With Walmart not scheduled to report until February 19 and most retailers releasing earnings later in the cycle, the recent strength in XLP may not reflect a true sector rotation. Instead, it could be driven by the same dispersion dynamics observed ahead of the major technology earnings releases.

    Long-term rates edged higher on Wednesday, with the 30-year yield rising about 2 basis points to 4.92%, once again testing the upper end of its resistance range. Whether it ultimately breaks higher remains uncertain. Fundamentally, yields have had ample justification to move higher for weeks, yet they remain stubbornly range-bound. The 30-year could arguably already be above 5%, but the market continues to wait.

    The latest QRA released Wednesday continues to point to mounting stress at the long end of the curve, though those pressures have yet to fully materialize. The report noted that the Treasury General Account (TGA) is expected to exceed $1 trillion around tax season—roughly $150 billion above current levels. That represents a significant liquidity drain from the system, and based on rough estimates, the Fed’s bill purchases would dilute, rather than offset, that impact.

    Looking ahead, Kevin Warsh’s arrival in May adds another layer of uncertainty around balance-sheet policy. As a result, liquidity conditions are likely to remain tight for some time.

    Sources: Michael Kramer

  • Silver Remains Bearish in the Near Term After Rally Fizzles

    Silver sold off sharply after Kevin Warsh’s nomination to the Fed caught investors off guard who had been anticipating a more dovish pivot. The metal remains under pressure from margin increases, elevated physical delivery requirements, and aggressive short positioning by Chinese traders. While long-term fundamentals remain constructive, prices are still range-bound as the market waits for clearer macro and technical signals.

    The steep decline in silver toward the end of last week can reasonably be characterized as a crash, triggered primarily by the announcement of Kevin Warsh’s nomination to lead the Federal Reserve.

    Prior to the news, markets had been positioned for a notably dovish appointment, an expectation shaped by President Donald Trump’s repeated calls for a weaker U.S. dollar and faster interest-rate cuts. Warsh’s nomination caught investors off guard, forcing a rapid reassessment of monetary policy expectations.

    Even so, uncertainty remains around how the incoming Fed chair would ultimately steer the central bank.

    At the same time, broader commodity markets have struggled to regain traction. Despite several rebound attempts, prices have failed to establish sustained upside momentum, leaving commodities—silver included—likely confined to a period of sideways consolidation for now.

    Investors Demand Physical Deliveries

    Beyond monetary policy concerns, silver prices are facing additional pressure following the CME Group’s decision to raise margin requirements for gold and silver. The higher margins have forced some leveraged investors to unwind long positions, intensifying selling pressure.

    At the same time, a growing number of futures contracts are moving toward physical delivery rather than being rolled forward. Given the current supply tightness, this dynamic is, for now, benefiting sellers more than buyers.

    Activity out of China has also drawn attention. Zhongcai Futures reportedly established a sizable short position in silver—estimated at roughly $1.5 billion—and appears to have profited significantly from the recent decline.

    With the Lunar New Year holiday ending and the Shanghai Stock Exchange reopening, market participants will be closely monitoring how Asian demand evolves.

    Overall, the recent move appears to be a corrective pullback after metals prices advanced too rapidly over a short period. While the near-term retracement has weighed on sentiment, it does little to alter the longer-term outlook. From a fundamental perspective, the case for higher prices remains intact, supported by constrained supply and steadily rising industrial demand.

    Investors will also be watching Kevin Warsh closely, as any public remarks could provide clearer insight into his economic views and expectations for the interest-rate path in the months ahead.

    Technical View on Silver

    Early in the week, demand showed signs of returning as investors stepped in to buy the dip. However, the rebound proved short-lived, with a fresh wave of selling reversing the recovery. For now, prices are consolidating within a range of roughly $74 to $92 per ounce.

    By the end of the week, prices are likely to stay confined within this range, provided U.S. labor market data does not deliver any major surprises. From a technical standpoint, the market appears to be in wait-and-see mode, looking for a decisive breakout to determine the next directional move. Meanwhile, the U.S. Dollar Index has once again held key support near the 96 level, which also represents its lows for the year.

    If buyers are able to extend the rebound, the next major hurdle sits near the 100 resistance level. A decisive break above that area could pave the way for a move toward 103.

    On the downside, a drop below 96 on the U.S. Dollar Index would be a clear signal that the broader downtrend remains intact and is likely to persist.

    Sources: Damian Nowiszewski

  • Natural Gas Slides on Warmer Forecasts: Is This a Buying Opportunity?

    Following a sharp and prolonged rally triggered by the outbreak of the Russia–Ukraine war in 2022, natural gas prices have since collapsed. The downturn has been driven by record U.S. output, warmer-than-expected winters, and improvements in drilling technology, all of which have contributed to a significant supply–demand imbalance.

    Over the past five years, natural gas—and related instruments such as the US Natural Gas Fund ETF (NYSE: UNG)—has dropped nearly 60%, reinforcing its long-standing reputation as the “widow maker.”

    However, following a sharp cold-weather-driven spike, warmer February forecasts have dampened near-term demand expectations, triggering a roughly 15% selloff in natural gas prices on Sunday evening.

    Even so, a number of bullish catalysts are coming into focus that could pave the way for a powerful, 2022-style rally in natural gas. Below are three key reasons to maintain a bullish outlook, including:

    Rising Energy Demand From Data Centers

    Already, the buildout of AI-focused data centers represents the largest infrastructure expansion in history. Data from Grand View Research shows that the data center construction market surpassed $250 billion in 2025, as hyperscalers such as Alphabet (NASDAQ: GOOGL) and Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT) race to secure leadership in artificial intelligence. Looking ahead, spending on AI data center construction is projected to surge to $450 billion by the end of the decade.

    Recent remarks from Nvidia’s (NASDAQ: NVDA) influential CEO, Jensen Huang, reinforce this view. Speaking at the World Economic Forum (WEF) 2026 in Davos, Switzerland, Huang pushed back against concerns of an AI bubble, pointing to rising spot prices—even for older GPUs—and the scarcity of available units for rent. He also suggested that trillions of dollars of capital are poised to flow into the development of increasingly powerful AI models.

    That said, hyperscalers face a significant constraint: energy. Power costs are climbing as electricity demand from AI data centers is projected to double by the end of the decade.

    While renewable and nuclear energy continue to dominate Wall Street’s narrative, both come with relatively high upfront costs. In the near term, natural gas remains the most reliable, scalable, and cost-effective source of power for meeting large-scale electricity demand.

    U.S. LNG Producers Capitalize on Global Demand

    Several major liquefied natural gas (LNG) export terminals are set to come online in 2026, expanding U.S. producers’ ability to supply Europe and other global markets. With U.S. natural gas prices well below those in Europe, exporters are incentivized to ship more volumes overseas. This dynamic is expected to absorb excess domestic supply, helping establish a solid price floor for U.S. natural gas.

    In addition, the Trump administration has emphasized an “American Energy Dominance” strategy, securing multiple long-term LNG supply agreements with countries such as Japan and Qatar. These deals underpin durable, long-term demand for U.S. LNG exports.

    Natural Gas Poised to Replace Coal

    According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), U.S. coal production declined 11.3% year over year, with the number of active coal mines dropping from 560 to 524. Although many countries are transitioning toward renewable sources such as solar, these alternatives are currently insufficient to fully replace coal-fired generation. In the near term, natural gas offers the most viable solution, given its scalability, cost efficiency, and significantly lower emissions—producing roughly half the CO₂ of coal.

    Technical Outlook for Natural Gas

    Over the past several weeks, UNG has surged from roughly $10 to $16.90. However, warmer-than-expected weather forecasts suggest the ETF may pull back to test its 200-day moving average. Bulls will be watching closely this week to see whether that key support level holds.

    Bottom Line

    While natural gas is well known for its short-term volatility and weather-driven swings, the underlying fundamentals are increasingly pointing toward a bullish long-term trajectory. Rising energy demand from AI data centers, combined with expanding U.S. export capacity, is expected to drive sustained growth in demand over time.

    Sources: Andrew Rocco

  • Key Investor Days Ahead: Takeaways Across Utilities, Energy, Industrials, and Banks

    The bull market has expanded beyond technology, and a number of upcoming Investor Days, Analyst Days, and business updates across non-tech sectors may provide valuable insight into the health of the broader, Main Street economy. Improving manufacturing sentiment creates a constructive backdrop for renewed corporate commentary. Together with fourth-quarter earnings reports and early-year industry conferences, these events are expected to deliver both qualitative perspectives and quantitative data points for investors.

    Technology stocks and the AI theme have driven global markets since the bull run began in October 2022. This year’s rally—marked by record highs across regions from Japan to Europe—has been led by a new group of sectors. In the United States, Energy and Materials are out in front, delivering double-digit gains through early February, with other “real economy” areas such as Consumer Staples and Industrials close behind.

    This kind of sector rotation is often viewed constructively, particularly when the S&P 500 holds elevated levels as market leadership shifts. Still, some observers have raised concerns that late-cycle industries and even traditionally defensive segments are starting to outperform more than three years into the bull market.

    Regardless of whether the shift proves bullish or bearish, attention has clearly moved toward cyclical and value-oriented stocks. While two more members of the Magnificent Seven are set to report earnings this week, meaningful macro signals are increasingly expected to come from outside the technology sector. In addition, corporate events—including investor conferences, shareholder meetings, interim updates, analyst days, and business briefings—add important context alongside formal earnings releases.

    Our team has identified several upcoming events hosted by non-tech, blue-chip companies over the next few weeks that could provide insight into the health of the manufacturing sector and the broader Main Street economy. These meetings follow the strongest U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI reading since August 2022, released earlier this week. The next phase of the bull market may be taking shape—not in technology, but in more traditional sectors. Below are the key events that will help clarify that trajectory.

    Thursday, February 5: Xcel Energy 2025 Year-End Webcast

    Power generation is expected to be a central theme at Xcel Energy’s (XEL) Analyst Day, which will take place shortly after the release of its Q4 2025 earnings. The $44 billion market-cap utility has pulled back after reaching record highs late last year, though the weakness has been broadly shared across the sector. Utilities within the S&P 500 continue to face volatility as significant structural changes reshape what has historically been a relatively quiet corner of the market.

    A Dividend Aristocrat, Xcel Energy shares are up roughly 10% over the past year. Management signaled a more aggressive capital expenditure strategy in its Q3 update last October. Investors will be looking for greater detail on project developments, as well as insight into trends tied to the expanding AI-driven infrastructure buildout, when the company presents tomorrow morning.

    Tuesday, February 10: Williams Companies 2026 Analyst Day

    Williams (WMB) is also expected to spotlight developments in the energy market. The $81 billion market-cap oil and gas storage and transportation company navigated several major winter storms with limited disruption. In November, management outlined a significant investment plan, announcing a $5.1 billion capital expenditure initiative focused on power innovation, alongside an ambitious 9% annualized growth outlook.

    Midstream energy companies have long appealed to income-focused investors for their stable and growing dividends, but a meaningful growth angle may now be emerging. After years of subdued demand, U.S. power consumption is beginning to accelerate. Investors will gain updated insight into these trends next Tuesday, following the company’s Q4 earnings release.

    Thursday, February 12: FedEx 2026 Investor Day

    One of the most closely watched events this month is FedEx’s (FDX) Investor Day on February 12. CEO Raj Subramaniam has navigated a series of macroeconomic challenges during his tenure, prompting strategic shifts and operational adjustments. This year, the Memphis-based air freight and logistics company plans to spin off its FedEx Freight division by June 1.

    FedEx delivered an earnings beat in December, triggering a long-awaited rally in the stock. Shares are up more than 50% over the past six months, setting a constructive backdrop for the Investor Day. While the specific announcements remain uncertain, companies typically do not convene such high-profile events to deliver negative news, suggesting an optimistic tone is likely.

    Monday, February 23: JPMorgan Chase & Co. 2026 Update

    JPMorgan Chase (JPM) may use its Business Update on Monday, February 23, to address several housekeeping items. While the largest U.S. bank by market value is shifting back to a first-quarter reporting cadence, that change is unlikely to capture investors’ attention. Instead, the focus will be on an operational overview and a potentially market-moving Q&A session with company leadership.

    JPM shares reached an all-time high on January 6 before pulling back around earnings, ultimately sliding into a roughly 12% drawdown early in the year. Whether the stock can regain momentum following the upcoming update remains an open question. Investors may get early signals on Tuesday, February 10, when co-CEO Troy Rohrbaugh is scheduled to present at the UBS Financial Services Conference.

    Wednesday, February 25: L3Harris Technologies 2026 Investor Day

    Tuesday, March 10: Howmet Aerospace 2026 Technology & Markets Presentation

    Two Aerospace & Defense companies—L3Harris (LHX) and Howmet Aerospace (HWM)—are set to host investor briefings in the coming weeks. Similar to banks, defense stocks have faced early pressure to start 2026. Both companies were also referenced unfavorably in recent Truth Social posts from President Trump. Proposals such as a potential cap on credit card interest rates weighed on financial stocks like JPMorgan, while threats of capital controls—including restrictions on dividends and share buybacks—were directed at defense names such as LHX, HWM, and their peers.

    L3Harris shares declined following last week’s Q4 earnings release, while Howmet Aerospace is scheduled to report results before the market opens on Thursday, February 12.

    The Bottom Line

    Market leadership within the bull run appears to be widening, as capital increasingly rotates toward cyclical, value-oriented, and real-economy sectors. A slate of upcoming corporate events across Utilities, Energy, Industrials, and Financials could provide important clues as to whether economic momentum is gaining traction beyond technology. Should these updates confirm improving fundamentals, they may point to a more resilient and broadly based next stage of the bull market.

    Sources: Christine Short

  • Tech Stocks Face Valuation Pressure as AI Uncertainty Fuels Volatility

    Uncertainty surrounding AI is driving market volatility on several fronts. Beyond accelerating layoffs as AI replaces certain roles, software stocks continue to sell off amid concerns that rapid AI deployment threatens all but companies with strong client-relationship moats. At the same time, surging demand for large-scale data centers has boosted memory chipmakers, while early winners in other semiconductor segments are now facing valuation pressure. Meanwhile, advances in quantum computing are gaining traction and could fundamentally reshape the landscape if fully realized—particularly in the area of security, where quantum systems are widely viewed as capable of breaking existing encryption methods, including those used in blockchain technology. Despite the turbulence, the longer-term outlook still points toward meaningful gains in labor productivity and improved corporate profit margins.

    This morning, the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the equal-weighted S&P 500 are the only major indexes trading in positive territory. Both the NASDAQ and the “Magnificent Seven” are now negative year to date. While the S&P 500 is up 0.9% YTD, the equal-weighted S&P has gained 4.6%, highlighting the underperformance of mega-cap technology stocks. The Dow is up 3.2%, and the Russell 2000 continues to lead with a 6.3% gain YTD, despite a 0.5% decline over the past week. Market volatility remains elevated, with the VIX jumping to 19.1 at the open from 18 previously and currently holding near 18.8.

    Sector performance year to date shows Financial Services (-2.3%), Technology (-1.3%), and Healthcare (-0.5%) as the only groups in negative territory. In contrast, Energy (+15.6%), Basic Materials (+11.8%), and Consumer Staples (+10.5%) are posting double-digit gains.

    Interest rates are little changed, with the U.S. 2-year Treasury yield at 3.57% and the 10-year at 4.27%. International yields are similarly flat. The U.S. dollar index is higher by 0.25 at 97.55, up 1.3% over the past week.

    Precious metals are experiencing sharp swings today, with gold climbing as high as $5,113 per ounce before retreating to $4,939, while silver fell from $92.0 to $86.5 per ounce. Copper prices declined 2.7% to $5.92 per ounce. Energy markets are relatively quiet, with crude oil trading flat near $63.20 per barrel.

    Cryptocurrencies continue to weaken, as Bitcoin has fallen 3.7% to $73.9K and is now down 26.4% over the last twelve months. Ethereum is lower by 4.2% and down 31% LTM. Even with the prospect of clearer regulation, many investors remain cautious given the sector’s persistent volatility.

    On the earnings front, AMD delivered solid top- and bottom-line beats, but weaker-than-expected data center revenue and rising costs weighed heavily on the stock. Shares are down a sharp 15.9%—their worst session in years—bringing performance to -4.9% YTD, though still up 70.4% LTM, and sending ripples through the broader hardware space. The semiconductor sector is down 3.9% on the day, including a 3.1% decline in NVIDIA. In contrast, Eli Lilly posted a strong earnings beat, exceeded expectations on both revenue and profit, and raised guidance. Its shares are up 9.8%, now +2.6% YTD and +33.7% LTM. Investors are also looking ahead to Alphabet’s results tonight and Amazon’s tomorrow.

    As trading continues, the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the equal-weighted S&P 500 are holding onto gains, while the NASDAQ has slid more than 1% and the Magnificent Seven is down 0.9%. The S&P 500 has dipped below 6,900, off 0.3%, and the Russell 2000 is down 0.8%. The ongoing pullback in technology stocks reflects elevated valuations and persistently high interest rates. Even so, the Dow and the equal-weighted S&P remain near record highs, the broader trend is still positive, and a rebound in tech following this correction would not be unexpected.

    Sources: Louis Navellier

  • Ethereum has reached its long-term downtrend line—does this present a buying opportunity?

    In our Ethereum (ETHUSD) update from three weeks ago, we noted that ETH had been forming an ascending triangle since 2020—characterized by higher lows and relatively equal highs—signaling that the long-term uptrend remained intact. We also highlighted that a pullback toward the ~$2,200 support area, followed by a breakout, could open the door for a move toward ~$6,190.

    Today, Ethereum is trading near that trend line at around $2,150. At the same time, the daily RSI(30) has declined to 32. Historically, aside from the 2018 bear market, this zone has provided attractive low-risk, high-reward opportunities for investors with a long-term horizon or those employing a dollar-cost averaging (DCA) strategy (see Figure 1).

    Figure 1: Ethereum’s daily price action since 2015.

    More on the RSI is discussed below. In the meantime, what would be the downside risk if the trend line fails to hold, allowing for some short-term whipsaw action? That scenario is illustrated below using the Elliott Wave Principle (EW). Under this framework, ETH’s price action suggests it may be unfolding within a larger, higher-degree fourth wave—labeled as the black Wave 4. See Figure 2.

    Figure 2: Ethereum’s monthly price action since 2015.

    In this scenario, Ethereum would gravitate toward the lower black dotted trend line, which has acted as key downside support since 2021 and is currently near $1,450. From that level, the second-largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization could still resume its advance, unfolding a (black) fifth wave that ideally targets around $6,200 (4,865 − 1,08? + 1,450). This aligns closely with the breakout objective from our original analysis, where we noted: “If Ethereum drops to ~$2,200 support first and then breaks out, we can expect ~$6,190.”

    Lastly, it is worth noting that the monthly RSI(5) has now fallen below 30. Similar to the daily RSI(30), historical data shows that this level has typically provided low-risk, high-reward opportunities for investors with a long-term horizon and/or those employing a dollar-cost averaging (DCA) approach.

    Sources: Arnout ter Schure

  • USD/JPY: Gains Limited Below 157.00 as Risk Aversion Persists

    USD/JPY paused its advance near the 157.00 mark during Thursday’s Asian session, as a renewed bout of risk aversion revived safe-haven demand for the Japanese yen.

    That said, the yen remains on fragile footing amid ongoing concerns over Japan’s fiscal position under Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s expansionary spending agenda, helping to limit downside pressure on the pair.

    Looking ahead, the U.S. JOLTS Job Openings report could provide fresh impetus for near-term trading.

    USD/JPY Technical Analysis

    The Japanese yen emerged as the weakest-performing G8 currency on Wednesday. Its sharp underperformance has lifted USD/JPY above the 156.80 level at the time of writing, putting the pair on course for a roughly 3% rebound from last week’s lows.

    Fundamental Analysis

    Investors are offloading the yen broadly ahead of this weekend’s snap election. Rising support for Prime Minister Takaichi has fuelled concerns that a stronger electoral mandate would allow her to extend tax cuts and expand stimulus spending, heightening fears of fiscal strain.

    Markets Brush Aside Intervention Concerns

    Tokyo authorities have warned of possible intervention to curb excessive yen volatility, but those concerns have been largely brushed aside. Comments from Prime Minister Takaichi highlighting the benefits of a weaker yen, along with the U.S. Treasury Secretary’s denial of any coordinated effort to stabilise the currency, have instead driven the yen sharply lower across the board.

    The U.S. dollar, however, is not especially strong on Wednesday. While markets continue to react positively to the nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve Chair and to the end of the brief partial government shutdown, the recent rally in the U.S. Dollar Index appears to be losing momentum.

    Attention now turns to upcoming U.S. data, including the Services PMI and the ADP Employment Change report. The latter could be particularly influential, as the government shutdown has delayed Friday’s official nonfarm payrolls release, leaving private-sector jobs data as a key guide for markets.

    Sources: Fxstreet

  • Gold Bulls Hold Their Ground Ahead of U.S. Jobs Data

    Gold saw choppy price action during Thursday’s Asian session, oscillating within a roughly $200 range. Traders are now looking to the U.S. JOLTS Job Openings report and developments on the geopolitical front—particularly U.S.–Iran tensions—for clearer directional cues.

    XAU/USD Technical Analysis

    The 21-, 50-, 100- and 200-day SMAs are all sloping higher, with the 21-day positioned above the longer-term averages, highlighting a well-established bullish structure. Prices remain above these indicators, confirming that buyers retain control. Initial support is seen at the 21-day SMA near $4,827.45, followed by the 50-day SMA at $4,532.68. The 14-day RSI has eased to a neutral 52.58, suggesting momentum is consolidating after retreating from overbought levels.

    The positive alignment of the moving averages favours a buy-on-dips approach while prices hold above the short-term average. A more pronounced correction would bring the 100-day SMA at $4,271.21 into focus, with the 200-day SMA at $3,821.77 reinforcing the broader uptrend. As long as the RSI remains above the 50 midpoint, the bullish bias stays intact, while a sustained break below it could signal scope for a deeper retracement.

    Fundamental Analysis

    Gold ended Wednesday little changed near $4,950 after choppy two-way trading. The metal initially rebounded sharply, testing the $5,100 area amid uncertainty surrounding the Federal Reserve’s future policy direction under Kevin Warsh, which weighed broadly on the U.S. dollar.

    Renewed geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and between Russia and Ukraine also lent support to gold prices, alongside concerns about potential economic data disruptions stemming from the U.S. partial government shutdown that concluded on Tuesday.

    Sentiment shifted during the U.S. session after the ISM Services PMI signalled firmer inflation pressures, prompting a rebound in the dollar. At the same time, an intensifying tech-sector sell-off on Wall Street unsettled markets, driving demand for the greenback as a safe haven.

    Additional USD strength came from renewed weakness in the Japanese yen amid rising fiscal and political concerns, which pushed USD/JPY higher and further supported the dollar.

    The USD rebound triggered a sharp pullback in gold, although buyers stepped back in near the key $4,950 psychological support level.

    Early Thursday, gold remains under pressure after once again failing above the $5,000 resistance zone. The U.S. dollar continues to advance, hitting fresh two-week highs against its major peers as risk sentiment deteriorates amid a global technology sell-off.

    The decline in global data analytics, professional services, and software stocks followed Anthropic’s launch of plug-ins for its Claude Cowork agent, which raised fresh concerns about AI-driven disruption across these industries, according to Reuters.

    Looking ahead, the delayed U.S. JOLTS Job Openings report could offer gold some relief, particularly if it reinforces expectations for two Federal Reserve rate cuts this year. Conversely, an extended sell-off in the Japanese yen could spark another wave of heavy selling pressure in gold.

    Sources: Fxstreet

  • AUD/USD slips below 0.7000 following mixed Australian trade data

    AUD/USD is trading lower below the key 0.7000 psychological level during Thursday’s Asian session, pressured by mixed Australian trade data. The pair is also weighed down by a firm U.S. dollar, which is hovering near a two-week high. With limited domestic catalysts, traders are now turning their attention to the upcoming U.S. JOLTS job openings data for fresh direction.

    AUD/USD Technical Outlook

    Should bullish momentum intensify, AUD/USD is likely to encounter its next resistance at the 2026 peak of 0.7093 (Jan 29), followed by the 2023 high at 0.7157 (Feb 2).

    On the downside, a break below the February low at 0.6908 (Feb 2) may trigger a deeper pullback toward the interim 55-day SMA at 0.6693, ahead of the 2026 trough at 0.6663 (Jan 9). Additional downside support is seen at the 100-day SMA at 0.6628, with stronger support at the 200-day SMA at 0.6563 and the November low at 0.6421 (Nov 21).

    Momentum indicators remain constructive and point to further upside potential, although the pair’s overbought readings suggest the risk of a near-term correction. The RSI hovers near 72, while the ADX around 50 continues to signal a strong underlying trend.

    Bottom line

    AUD/USD continues to be heavily influenced by global risk appetite and developments in China’s economy. A sustained move above the 0.7000 handle would reinforce a more credible bullish outlook.

    For the time being, a weaker U.S. dollar, stable—though not particularly strong—domestic data, a still-hawkish tilt from the RBA, and modest backing from China leave the balance of risks skewed toward further upside rather than a pronounced pullback.

    Fundamental Analysis

    AUD/USD remains entrenched in its broader uptrend despite renewed selling pressure emerging on Wednesday. Any near-term pullbacks are expected to attract buying interest, as the Reserve Bank of Australia continues to project a clearly hawkish stance following its latest rate decision.

    The Australian Dollar is struggling to extend Tuesday’s advance, easing back and once again testing the psychologically significant 0.7000 mark.

    The retreat comes as the U.S. Dollar regains some traction, with markets having largely absorbed the RBA’s hawkish hike and refocusing attention on U.S. economic and monetary policy developments.

    Australia: Growth Is Cooling, Not Collapsing

    Recent Australian data have been underwhelming rather than alarming, reinforcing a well-established narrative. Economic activity is slowing, but in a controlled manner, with momentum easing rather than breaking down—supporting the soft-landing view.

    January PMI surveys align with this assessment, as both Manufacturing and Services strengthened and remained firmly in expansion territory, at 52.3 and 56.3 respectively. Retail sales continue to show resilience, and although the trade surplus narrowed to A$2.936 billion in November, it remains solidly positive.

    Growth is moderating only gradually, following a 0.4% quarter-on-quarter rise in GDP in Q3. On an annual basis, output expanded by 2.1%, matching the RBA’s projections.

    The labour market remains a standout performer. Employment jumped by 65.2K in December, while the unemployment rate unexpectedly edged down to 4.1% from 4.3%.

    Inflation, however, continues to be the key challenge. December CPI surprised to the upside, with headline inflation accelerating to 3.8% year-on-year from 3.4%. The trimmed mean rose to 3.3%, in line with market expectations but slightly above the RBA’s 3.2% forecast. On a quarterly basis, trimmed mean inflation increased to 3.4% in the year to Q4, marking the highest level since Q3 2024.

    China: A Backdrop of Support, Not a Catalyst

    China continues to offer a generally supportive backdrop for the Australian dollar, though without the momentum needed to drive a sustained upswing.

    Economic growth ran at an annualised 4.5% in the October–December quarter, with quarter-on-quarter expansion at 1.2%. Retail sales rose 0.9% year-on-year in December—respectable, but not particularly compelling.

    More recent indicators point to a renewed loss of momentum. Both the NBS Manufacturing PMI and the Non-Manufacturing PMI slipped back into contraction territory in January, at 49.3 and 49.4 respectively.

    By contrast, the Caixin surveys painted a slightly brighter picture, with the Manufacturing PMI edging up to 50.3 to remain in expansion, while the Services PMI increased to 52.3.

    Trade stood out as a relative bright spot, as the surplus widened sharply to $114.1 billion in December, supported by nearly 7% growth in exports and a solid 5.7% rise in imports.

    Inflation signals remain mixed. Consumer prices were unchanged at 0.8% year-on-year in December, while producer prices stayed firmly negative at -1.9%, underscoring that deflationary pressures have yet to fully fade.

    For now, the People’s Bank of China is maintaining a cautious stance. Loan Prime Rates were left unchanged in January at 3.00% for the one-year and 3.50% for the five-year, reinforcing expectations that policy support will remain gradual rather than aggressive.

    RBA: Leaning Hawkish, In No Hurry to Ease

    The RBA raised the cash rate to 3.85% in a decisively hawkish move that largely met expectations. Upward revisions to both growth and inflation forecasts signal firmer economic momentum and increasingly broad-based price pressures. Core inflation is now projected to remain above the 2–3% target band for much of the forecast horizon, reinforcing the case for a restrictive policy stance.

    The central message is that inflation is becoming more demand-driven. The RBA cited stronger-than-expected private demand as a key justification for tighter policy, even as productivity growth remains subdued. While Governor Bullock described the move as an “adjustment” rather than the beginning of a renewed hiking cycle, the signal was clear: policymakers are uneasy with the upward drift in inflation.

    For markets, this implies interest rates are likely to stay higher for longer, limiting the scope for near-term easing. From an FX perspective, this provides marginal support for the Australian dollar—particularly against low-yielding peers—even as the RBA’s emphasis on full employment tempers the likelihood of an aggressive tightening phase.

    In the wake of the decision, markets are now pricing in nearly 40 basis points of additional tightening by year-end.

    Positioning: Shifting Sentiment Toward the AUD

    The latest positioning data suggest the worst of the bearish sentiment toward the Australian dollar may have passed. CFTC figures show that non-commercial traders have returned to a net long stance for the first time since early December 2024, although the position remains modest at just over 7.1K contracts in the week ending January 27.

    Open interest has also climbed to its highest level in several weeks, exceeding 252K contracts, indicating that traders are beginning to re-engage with the market. That said, the move appears tentative rather than a strong conviction call on a sustained appreciation in the AUD, at least for now.

    Key Drivers Ahead

    Near term: Market attention is shifting back toward the United States. Incoming economic data, tariff-related developments, and ongoing geopolitical headlines are likely to drive movements in the U.S. dollar. For the Australian dollar, the key swing factors remain domestic labour market and inflation data, and how these shape expectations for the RBA’s next policy decision.

    Risks: The AUD remains highly sensitive to global risk sentiment. A sharp deterioration in risk appetite, renewed concerns over China’s outlook, or an unexpected resurgence in the U.S. dollar could quickly unwind recent gains.

    Sources: Fxstreet

  • Bitcoin falls below $71,000 as AI-fueled tech selloff deepens

    The slide followed heavy losses in Asian and U.S. technology stocks, as fears that AI investment may be peaking—alongside stretched valuations and slowing earnings growth—pushed investors away from risk assets.

    What to know:

    • Bitcoin dropped as much as 7.5% during Asian trading on Thursday, falling below $71,000 as a global tech-led selloff spilled over into crypto markets.
    • The move came after sharp declines in Asian and U.S. tech shares, driven by concerns over cooling AI spending, elevated valuations, and weakening earnings momentum.
    • Bitcoin’s latest fall, alongside steep losses in silver and gold, highlights its behavior as a high-beta risk asset. Thin liquidity and rising macro uncertainty have amplified price swings, pointing to fragile investor conviction rather than a definitive trend reversal.

    Bitcoin fell below the $71,000 threshold during Asian trading on Thursday as a renewed global selloff in technology stocks spilled over into crypto markets, dampening hopes of a sustained recovery after last week’s sharp volatility.

    The world’s largest cryptocurrency dropped as much as 7.5% over the past 24 hours, briefly touching lows near $70,700 before trimming some losses, according to CoinDesk data.

    The decline followed steep losses across Asian equity markets, where rising concerns about slowing artificial intelligence spending, elevated valuations, and weakening earnings momentum pushed investors further away from risk assets. MSCI’s Asia technology index fell for the fifth time in six sessions, led by a roughly 4% drop in South Korea’s Kospi as AI-linked heavyweight stocks came under pressure.

    Weakness in Asia followed a selloff in U.S. markets, where the Nasdaq slid after underwhelming earnings from companies including Alphabet, Qualcomm, and Arm reinforced fears that the AI investment cycle may be peaking sooner than expected.

    Bitcoin has increasingly behaved like a high-beta risk asset during equity-driven downturns, particularly when liquidity is thin and macroeconomic uncertainty intensifies.

    The latest slide comes after choppy price action earlier in the week, when bitcoin dropped toward $73,000 before rebounding above $76,000—moves that signaled fragile investor conviction rather than a decisive trend reversal.

    Pressure was exacerbated by sharp moves in commodities. Silver plunged as much as 17%, while gold fell more than 3%, extending a severe unwind that has already triggered significant liquidations in tokenized metals products across crypto trading platforms.

    Sources: Shaurya Malwa

  • Asia markets retreat on AI worries; KOSPI slides nearly 4%

    Asian stock markets declined on Thursday, pulling back from record highs reached earlier in the week, as heightened volatility in global technology shares and concerns over AI-driven disruption dampened investor sentiment.

    The retreat followed a sharp overnight selloff in U.S. technology stocks, with the Nasdaq underperforming broader market indexes. Meanwhile, U.S. stock index futures were largely flat during early Asian trading hours on Thursday.

    AI fears drag tech stocks lower

    The decline follows a volatile week for technology and semiconductor stocks, as rising concerns that rapid advances in artificial intelligence could disrupt established business models and squeeze profit margins prompted investors to take profits after a strong rally.

    South Korea’s benchmark KOSPI fell 3.7% after hitting record highs over the previous two sessions. Shares of Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix dropped more than 5% each as investors moved to lock in recent gains.

    In China, the blue-chip CSI 300 index and the Shanghai Composite both slipped nearly 1%. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index declined 1.2%, while the Hang Seng TECH Index fell 1.5%.

    Japanese stocks slip, earnings help stem losses

    Japanese equities edged lower on Thursday, with the Nikkei 225 slipping 1% from record highs reached earlier in the week as technology stocks followed overnight losses on Wall Street.

    The decline was cushioned by strong gains in select stocks. Panasonic shares surged after the company reported solid earnings and issued upbeat guidance, while Renesas Electronics jumped following the announcement that it will sell its timing business to U.S.-based SiTime in a deal valued at around $3 billion.

    The broader TOPIX index was largely unchanged, highlighting relative resilience outside the technology sector.

    Elsewhere in the region, Singapore’s Straits Times Index eased 0.4% after closing at a record high in the previous session. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 also slipped 0.4%, tracking regional weakness as investors digested trade data released earlier in the day.

    Australia’s trade surplus widened less than expected in December, reflecting modest export growth and softer imports, which reinforced concerns over uneven global demand.

    Futures linked to India’s Nifty 50 were slightly lower, down 0.3%.

    Sources: Ayushman Ojha

  • SoftBank shares tumble 7% after Arm earnings disappoint

    SoftBank Group Corp. shares fell sharply on Thursday, tracking losses in Arm Holdings after the British chip designer—one of the Japanese conglomerate’s largest investments—reported weaker-than-expected earnings for the December quarter.

    SoftBank was also swept up in a broader selloff in technology stocks, as growing uncertainty surrounding artificial intelligence and its implications for the software sector weighed on sentiment. Shares of the group dropped as much as 7% to 3,909 yen, making SoftBank one of the biggest drags on the Nikkei 225 index, which declined 1%.

    The slide followed an 8% drop in Arm’s shares in after-hours U.S. trading. Arm posted disappointing licensing revenue for the December quarter. The company generates income by licensing its chip designs to major customers such as Nvidia and Apple, as well as collecting ongoing royalties on those technologies.

    Pressure on Arm was compounded by a cautious outlook from Qualcomm, which warned that rising global memory prices—driven by AI-related demand—could weigh on smartphone sales in 2026. Such a trend would be negative for Arm, whose chip architectures are widely used across the smartphone industry.

    SoftBank currently owns an 87.1% stake in Arm following the chip designer’s return to public markets in 2023. Arm remains one of SoftBank’s most significant holdings and a central pillar of the group’s long-term ambitions in artificial intelligence and semiconductor technology.

    Sources: Ambar Warrick

  • Stellar Price Outlook: Downtrend Extends as Bearish Signals Dominate

    Stellar continued its corrective move on Thursday after failing to reclaim a previously broken trendline. Derivatives data points to mounting weakness, with short positions increasing even as open interest declines. The technical picture remains bearish, suggesting sellers retain control and could push the price into a deeper correction.

    Stellar (XLM) continued its corrective decline on Thursday, trading below $0.167 at the time of writing after facing rejection at a key resistance level. Derivatives indicators signal growing weakness, with short positions increasing even as open interest declines. From a technical perspective, bearish momentum remains dominant, leaving XLM vulnerable to further downside and potential new lows.

    Derivatives data signals downside bias for XLM

    CoinGlass data shows XLM’s long-to-short ratio at 0.85 on Thursday, close to its lowest level in a month. A reading below one indicates a bearish skew in market positioning, with a greater share of traders betting on further price declines.

    Stellar’s futures open interest fell to $95 million on Thursday, marking its lowest level since November 2024 and continuing a steady decline seen since the start of the year. The reduction in open interest signals diminishing trader participation and reinforces the broader bearish outlook for XLM.

    Stellar Price Forecast: XLM deepens correction after slipping below key support

    Stellar fell more than 13% last week, closing below the lower boundary of a falling wedge pattern on Saturday. Since then, XLM has repeatedly faced rejection near the broken trendline through Wednesday, extending losses by more than 5%. As of Thursday, the token is trading around $0.169.

    If the corrective move continues, XLM could slide further toward its 2025 yearly low at $0.160, recorded on October 10.

    Momentum indicators continue to point lower. The daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 26, signaling oversold conditions and strong bearish pressure. Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) has remained in a bearish crossover since mid-January, with expanding red histogram bars below the zero line reinforcing the negative technical bias.

    Alternatively, a recovery in XLM could see prices push higher toward the lower boundary of the trendline, near the $0.180 level.

    Sources: Manish Chhetri

  • AI holds up a mirror to tech—and the reflection is unsettling

    Tech just suffered a selloff of a different kind. This was not about rates, recession fears, or a routine earnings disappointment. It was the market catching its own reflection in the AI mirror—and flinching.

    When confidence cracks, the Nasdaq does not rotate. It drops the floor. The S&P followed along, dutifully diversified in theory, while tech still steers the wheel.

    The trigger was AMD, but the message was broader. In a fully priced bull market, “good” results are not good enough when investors have already paid in advance for perfection. When expectations stretch into the stratosphere, even a strong quarter feels like a letdown. AMD was not punished for weakness—it was punished for failing to deliver magic commensurate with the valuation it carried.

    What followed was less about fundamentals than positioning. This was the market unwinding a narrative that had become too tidy, too crowded, too self-assured. When everyone leans the same way, even a minor wobble turns into a shove.

    And the shove traveled fast. Once the story lost its grip, selling turned indiscriminate. Yesterday’s AI champions were treated like stale trades. Hardware names sank alongside software darlings. Picks, shovels, and miners all landed in the same risk bucket as investors dumped exposure wholesale.

    This was never just a chip story. The real fault line runs through software—and it is psychological. The market is now entertaining a new fear: not that AI lifts all boats, but that it punctures the hulls of those that assumed they were unsinkable.

    Software cracked first because belief ran deepest there. It was the cleanest narrative in the market—AI as a quiet margin expander, a tailwind that boosted earnings without disrupting the underlying structure. That assumption is now being dismantled in real time.

    The uncomfortable inversion is coming into focus. The companies that digitized the fastest may also be the most exposed. AI is not arriving as a polite consultant. It is entering as a tireless shadow workforce—one that never negotiates, never sleeps, and learns faster than corporate hierarchies can adapt. And it writes code, too.

    That is why this moment feels like a break, not a revision. When markets stop debating how much something earns and start questioning why it exists, prices do not drift lower. They fracture.

    You can see it in the tape. This is not a careful repricing—it is an exit rush. One day the debate is about margins; the next it is about whether the product becomes a feature inside a larger model.

    Once that fear enters the room, it spreads quickly across anything tied to monetized knowledge work—data platforms, marketing software, legal tools, analytics, even media and advertising adjacencies. If AI does the work, who gets paid for it? That is the question markets are stress-testing in real time.

    For years, software earned its margins by controlling workflow—owning the screen, the process, the friction. Humans did the thinking; software rented them the tools and charged a recurring toll. Predictable. Scalable. Defensible. That doctrine is now under review.

    Bitcoin and gold sliding alongside tech is telling. When risk sentiment turns, speculative layers lose sponsorship first. It is not ideology—it is mechanics. When leverage gets pulled back, froth goes first.

    This does not mean tech is finished. It means tech is being tested.

    Every cycle follows the same arc: markets fall in love with innovation, price it as destiny, then recoil when destiny arrives with disruption and bills. AI is no longer just a growth story—it is a competitive weapon. That creates winners and losers, not a rising tide. The trade is shifting from owning the theme to owning the survivors.

    This is what a regime change looks like within a sector. Euphoria gives way to scrutiny. Momentum yields to forensic analysis. Markets stop paying for possibility and start paying for proof.

    Ironically, the most technologically advanced firms often feel the shock first—they sit closest to the blast radius. If your business automates knowledge work and a universal automation engine shows up, you do not get to pretend the rules stayed the same.

    Panic, of course, is rarely precise. Markets swing the hammer before identifying the nail. These moments tend to overshoot because fear moves faster than analysis.

    This looks less like the end of AI and more like a narrative reckoning. The market is re-evaluating who captures value, who loses the toll booth, and who gets displaced.

    AI is not killing tech.
    It is forcing tech to prove it has a moat—not just a story.

    When markets stop buying dreams, they start auditing business models.

    Sources: Stephen Innes

  • Bitcoin slides to 15-month low as global markets sell off

    Bitcoin fell to a 15-month low on Wednesday, sliding toward the $72,000 level amid a broad-based selloff across global financial markets.

    The world’s largest cryptocurrency dropped as much as 5.4% to $72,047, its weakest level since Nov. 6, 2024—the day after Donald Trump’s U.S. presidential election victory. Bitcoin has now shed more than 40% from its record high reached in October 2025.

    While earlier declines this week were largely driven by crypto-specific liquidations, Wednesday’s losses appeared to be part of a wider risk-off move. Global markets saw coordinated selling pressure, with the Nasdaq 100 falling more than 2% as software stocks, semiconductor names, and other interest rate–sensitive sectors came under pressure.

    Sources: Investing

  • Citi identifies key bitcoin levels after rally since Trump win fully unwinds

    Bitcoin on Tuesday wiped out all of the gains it had made since President Donald Trump’s election victory in early November 2024. Selling pressure continued into Wednesday, briefly dragging the world’s largest cryptocurrency below the $72,000 level.

    The digital asset has now plunged roughly 42% from its record high above $126,000 reached last October, firmly placing it in bear-market territory.

    Bitcoin surged through 2025 on expectations of a more crypto-friendly regulatory environment under the Trump administration, strong inflows into spot exchange-traded funds, and growing institutional adoption. Since peaking, however, prices have fallen sharply, with losses accelerating in 2026.

    Citi Research analyst Alex Saunders said downside sensitivity to equity markets, heightened geopolitical risks, and long-position liquidations have weighed heavily on bitcoin and the broader crypto market.

    Saunders also noted a clear slowdown in inflows to U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs since Oct. 10 last year, which he views as a key source of incremental demand. The drop in new money has coincided with increased caution among long-term holders, who have grown more concerned about cyclical weakness in bitcoin.

    Nearing critical levels

    Bitcoin slid as much as 5% on Wednesday to an intraday low of $71,913.4, marking its weakest level since early November 2024.

    Citi Research analyst Alex Saunders said bitcoin is now nearing critical price thresholds. He noted that prices have fallen below Citi’s estimated average U.S. spot ETF entry level of $81,600 and are approaching the roughly $70,000 level that prevailed ahead of the U.S. presidential election.

    Saunders pointed to U.S. legislation passed by the House in July 2025—currently stalled in the Senate—as a potential catalyst for renewed investor interest. He said there has been some progress early this year, with the Senate Finance Committee releasing a draft bill intended to be reconciled with the House-approved CLARITY Act, although the proposal has yet to gain broad support and a committee vote has been delayed. The Senate Agriculture Committee has also advanced its own version of the legislation.

    According to Saunders, positive developments on the regulatory front could provide a meaningful boost to market sentiment and capital inflows, citing past examples such as stronger ETF demand following the U.S. election and the passage of the GENIUS Act in July 2025.

    No signs of structural stress in crypto markets

    Analysts say bitcoin’s latest selloff does not signal deeper structural problems, but rather reflects the normal ebb and flow of bull and bear cycles.

    “Recent price movements in bitcoin don’t suggest that anything has broken in the crypto market—they simply mirror the current stage of the broader macroeconomic cycle,” said Gil Rosen, co-founder of the Blockchain Builders fund, in comments to Investing.com. He noted that earlier gains had overshot reality, with markets pricing in an unrealistically smooth rally. The subsequent decline, Rosen added, was not driven by crypto-specific factors, but by external pressures including geopolitics, tariffs, and policy uncertainty. As institutional investors now play a larger role, bitcoin increasingly trades like a risk asset, making it more vulnerable when macro conditions deteriorate.

    Nicholas Motz, CIO of Soil.co and CEO of ORQO.digital, echoed this view, arguing that the sharp unwinding of precious metals positions late last week triggered a broader risk-off move across asset classes.

    “When investors face pressure in traditional safe havens, they often sell their most liquid and profitable holdings—such as bitcoin—to offset losses elsewhere,” Motz said. He characterized the recent decline as a forced deleveraging episode rather than a fundamental change in long-term crypto adoption.

    Sources: Anuron Mitra

  • Nasdaq proposes “fast-track” rule to accelerate index inclusion for large new listings

    Nasdaq has put forward a proposal to accelerate the inclusion of newly listed large companies into its indexes, aiming to reduce the lengthy delays that have often kept major IPOs and exchange transfers out of benchmark indexes for months.

    The move comes as 2026 is shaping up to be a particularly active year for high-profile listings, with potential IPOs from companies such as Elon Musk’s SpaceX and artificial intelligence startup Anthropic. According to a source familiar with the discussions, advisers to SpaceX—following its recent acquisition of xAI—have contacted major index providers, including Nasdaq, to explore earlier-than-usual index entry. SpaceX did not immediately respond to a request for comment, and Nasdaq declined to comment.

    Under the proposed “Fast Entry” rule, a newly listed Nasdaq company would qualify for expedited inclusion if its market capitalization ranks within the top 40 of existing index constituents. Eligible companies would receive at least five trading days’ notice and be added to the index after 15 trading sessions.

    The proposal would waive the usual seasoning and liquidity requirements. Rather than replacing an existing constituent, the new entrant would temporarily expand the index’s size until the next annual reconstitution, consistent with Nasdaq’s approach to handling spin-offs.

    Michael Ashley Schulman, partner and chief investment officer at Running Point Capital Advisors, said faster inclusion would enhance Nasdaq’s appeal for large issuers by improving liquidity and narrowing bid-ask spreads through greater passive fund ownership.

    The lack of a fast-track mechanism has frequently created a gap between index composition and broader market realities, particularly given the scale and market influence of newly listed giants. Investors also expect major additions to be reflected promptly in the index, something the current framework often fails to deliver.

    The proposed rule could prove especially consequential in 2026, as artificial intelligence–driven technology leaders may seek valuations in the hundreds of billions of dollars. Nasdaq remains the preferred exchange for U.S. technology heavyweights, including trillion-dollar companies such as Alphabet and Nvidia.

    The Nasdaq 100 index, which includes the exchange’s largest listed firms, is closely watched by investors and analysts and is widely viewed as a key gauge of the health of technology and growth-focused sectors.

    “As this proposal shows, Nasdaq is signaling that no company is too large and no system is too established to be improved,” Schulman said.

    Sources: Reuters

  • Gold retreats as stronger dollar weighs ahead of jobs data and central bank meetings

    Gold prices gave up early gains and declined during Asian trading on Thursday, pressured by a firmer U.S. dollar as investors positioned ahead of major central bank meetings and key U.S. labor market data. Reduced safe-haven demand also weighed on bullion after the U.S. and Iran confirmed plans to hold talks on Friday, easing fears of an imminent military escalation in the Middle East.

    Spot gold slid 1.1% to $4,912.26 an ounce by 21:17 ET (02:17 GMT), while April gold futures fell 0.4% to $4,929.25 an ounce. Prices had climbed as high as $5,092.31 an ounce on Wednesday before surrendering most of those gains and slipping back below the $5,000 level by the session’s close.

    The pullback came as diplomatic developments between Washington and Tehran helped calm geopolitical concerns. At the same time, a stronger dollar weighed on precious metals, with traders favoring the greenback ahead of interest rate decisions from the Bank of England and the European Central Bank, both scheduled for Thursday.

    Additional support for the dollar came from anticipation of U.S. nonfarm payrolls data due on Friday, which could influence expectations for the Federal Reserve’s interest rate path. The greenback also extended gains from last week following President Donald Trump’s nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair. Warsh is widely seen as a less dovish candidate, potentially signaling a tighter monetary stance even as rates decline.

    Other precious metals also retreated after a brief rebound earlier in the week. Spot silver plunged 6.9% to $82.3130 an ounce after rallying nearly 6% in the previous session. While silver continues to benefit from its dual role as an industrial and precious metal and has significantly outperformed in recent months, it has faced sharp losses over the past week amid profit-taking and dollar strength.

    Spot platinum fell 3% to $2,167.59 an ounce, while benchmark copper futures on the London Metal Exchange slipped 0.6% to $12,986 per tonne.

    Sources: Ambar Warrick

  • Strength in the Chinese yuan is key for broader market sentiment, according to BofA Securities.

    The Chinese yuan has recently attracted strong demand, and Bank of America Securities believes this momentum could become a key driver of foreign exchange markets in both the near and longer term. On Tuesday, the People’s Bank of China set the yuan’s daily midpoint at 6.9533 per U.S. dollar—75 pips stronger than the prior fix—marking its firmest level in nearly 33 months and breaking below the 6.96 threshold. BofA analysts cited solid export performance and firmer policy guidance as reasons for upgrading their USD/CNY forecasts to 6.7 for the end of Q3 and Q4, from 6.8.

    According to the bank, the yuan’s strength may have broader implications for global FX markets, as signs emerge that appreciation is spreading across trade-weighted measures, including the CFETS basket, and increasingly influencing emerging-market currencies. While correlation does not prove causation, BofA noted that the alignment between bilateral and trade-weighted CNY gains is becoming difficult to ignore. A softer U.S. dollar is further reinforcing EM currency strength alongside the yuan.

    High U.S. tariffs have encouraged China to redirect exports from the U.S. toward Europe, a shift reflected in the European Union’s expanding trade deficit with China, now nearing levels last seen during the Covid period. Although part of this imbalance stems from a weaker yuan versus the euro, unlike during the pandemic, the widening deficit has not led to euro weakness. Instead, EUR/CNY has climbed to a ten-year high, intensifying pressure on European exporters and renewing calls for yuan appreciation. BofA expects Chinese export momentum into Europe to continue in the short term, though heightened EU scrutiny and anti-dumping measures could pose challenges over the medium term, potentially placing downward pressure on EUR/CNY.

    The case for yuan appreciation is gaining traction, reinforced most recently by comments from President Xi emphasizing the goal of building a “powerful currency” that is widely used in global trade, investment, and foreign exchange markets, and that ultimately achieves reserve-currency status. This builds on Xi’s 2020 remarks outlining China’s ambition to reach high-income status by 2025 and significantly expand economic output by 2035. However, BofA cautioned that aggressive currency appreciation could lead to overvaluation and pose risks to financial stability.

    In this context, the outcome of U.S.–China competition in artificial intelligence will be critical for productivity growth and the long-term sustainability of relative currency valuations. Given the continued dominance of the U.S. dollar and the U.S.-centered global financial system, BofA expects USD leadership to persist over the next decade. While full internationalization of the renminbi appears unlikely, a more realistic approach may involve expanding CNY usage across the Global South and Asia, potentially reducing the need for a sharply stronger yuan.

    Sources: Peter Nurse

  • The dollar edged higher, extending recent gains, while the euro slipped after inflation data.

    The U.S. dollar held steady on Wednesday after a sharp rebound from near four-year lows, while the euro weakened following the release of key regional inflation data.

    By 11:54 ET (16:54 GMT), the Dollar Index was up 0.3% at 97.69 and has gained more than 1% since Kevin Warsh was nominated as the next Federal Reserve chair.

    The dollar remained resilient despite softer labor market data.

    The dollar got a lift late last week after Kevin Warsh was nominated to succeed Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, with markets viewing him as more hawkish and supportive of shrinking the Fed’s balance sheet.

    Attention has now turned to Warsh’s Senate confirmation and the potential implications of his appointment for U.S. interest rates when he is set to take over from Powell in May.

    A brief government shutdown had little impact on the greenback, as lawmakers approved additional funding this week, though it did delay the release of key employment data originally due on Friday.

    Traders also shrugged off a soft ADP payrolls report for January released on Wednesday.

    Eurozone consumer prices fall.

    In Europe, the euro slipped slightly, with EUR/USD down 0.1% at 1.1802, despite the release of weaker-than-expected preliminary eurozone inflation data. Consumer prices eased to an annual rate of 1.7% last month, below the ECB’s 2% target and down from 2% in December.

    The data did little to alter expectations that the European Central Bank will keep interest rates unchanged at 2% for a fifth consecutive meeting. Policymakers have recently expressed concern about the euro’s rapid rise against the dollar and its dampening effect on inflation. The euro touched a 4½-year high of 1.2084 last week.

    According to Macquarie strategist Thierry Wizman, the euro is being pulled by opposing forces. Falling inflation could pave the way for policy easing in 2026, potentially weighing on the currency as euro area rates lag those elsewhere. However, this is being offset by improving growth prospects, supported by stronger survey data and a more favorable political backdrop, including eased budget tensions in France and renewed reform momentum in Germany. Wizman said stronger growth could ultimately provide greater support for the euro than lower rates would undermine it.

    GBP/USD fell 0.3% to 1.3657, as the Bank of England was also expected to leave interest rates unchanged at its policy meeting on Thursday.

    The yen remained under pressure.

    In Asia, USD/JPY rose 0.5% to 156.55, leaving the pair near a two-week high.

    The yen faced renewed pressure this week after comments from Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi cast doubt on whether Tokyo would step in to support the currency. Attention has shifted to a snap lower house election on February 8, with Takaichi’s party expected to secure a strong victory and strengthen her grip on parliament.

    Elsewhere, USD/CNY edged up to 6.9415, hovering near its lowest level since mid-2023. AUD/USD slipped 0.4% to 0.6988 after rallying earlier in the week on a hawkish Reserve Bank of Australia meeting. The RBA raised interest rates by 25 basis points and lifted its growth and inflation forecasts for the year.

    Sources: Anuron Mitra

  • SpaceX is seeking early entry into major stock indexes ahead of a potential $1 trillion IPO, the WSJ reports.

    Elon Musk’s SpaceX is seeking early inclusion in major stock indexes ahead of a planned IPO later this year, aiming to boost liquidity and support its share price, the Wall Street Journal reported.

    Advisers to the company have approached index providers such as Nasdaq to explore faster-than-usual entry into benchmark indexes, which typically require newly listed firms to wait several months. SpaceX is looking to bypass these rules as it prepares for what could be the largest U.S. IPO on record, targeting a valuation above $1 trillion, up from an estimated $800 billion previously.

    Early index inclusion could attract inflows from index-tracking funds and ETFs, helping stabilize the stock in the volatile period following its debut.

    Sources: Ayushman Ojha

  • Oil prices fell more than 1% as markets focused on ongoing U.S.– Iran talks.

    Oil prices fell in Asian trading on Thursday as traders pared back risk premiums after the U.S. and Iran confirmed talks would take place on Friday.

    Crude was also weighed down by a stronger U.S. dollar, which firmed ahead of key January nonfarm payrolls data due on Friday. Attention was additionally focused on major central bank meetings in Europe and the UK later on Thursday.

    Prices reversed some of Wednesday’s strong gains as investors locked in profits, though oil remained on track for a weekly decline after earlier losses driven by a broader selloff in commodity markets.

    Brent crude futures for April slipped 1.4% to $68.50 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate futures fell 1.3% to $63.80 a barrel by 20:42 ET (01:42 GMT).

    Earlier, oil had found support from data showing U.S. inventories declined more than expected last week, as extreme cold weather disrupted production across the country.

    U.S.– Iran talks are set to be held in Oman on Friday.

    U.S. and Iranian officials are due to meet in Oman on Friday, as confirmed by both sides this week, though disagreements persist over the scope of the talks.

    Washington has repeatedly pushed for the discussions to include Iran’s missile program, while Tehran has said it is only willing to negotiate on its nuclear activities. These differences had earlier raised doubts about whether the meeting would go ahead, a factor that helped lift oil prices earlier in the week.

    Markets have also priced in a higher risk premium for crude amid concerns that U.S. President Donald Trump could follow through on threats to launch new strikes against Iran.

    A stronger dollar weighs on markets as investors await central bank meetings and upcoming payrolls data.

    A firmer dollar added pressure to oil prices, as the greenback attracted strong demand this week.

    Expectations around interest rate decisions from the Bank of England and the European Central Bank on Thursday prompted traders to move into the dollar, while attention also remained on upcoming U.S. nonfarm payrolls data.

    The dollar rebounded sharply from near four-year lows after President Donald Trump nominated Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve chair, a choice seen as less dovish by markets.

    Investors are now focused on January nonfarm payrolls data due on Friday, which is expected to provide clearer signals on the future path of U.S. interest rates.

    Sources: Ambar Warrick

  • Wall Street futures ticked up after a tech-driven selloff, with focus on Alphabet earnings.

    U.S. stock index futures ticked up slightly on Wednesday night after a weaker close on Wall Street, as technology stocks remained under pressure amid concerns over AI-driven disruption, while investors assessed Alphabet’s earnings report and new labor market data. S&P 500 futures rose 0.3% to 6,923.0, Nasdaq 100 futures advanced 0.4% to 25,088.75, and Dow Jones futures were mostly unchanged at 49,589.0.

    Technology stocks extended their sell-off, while investors turned their attention to Alphabet’s earnings report.

    In regular trading, the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite fell 0.5% and 1.5%, respectively, as renewed selling pressure hit heavyweight technology and AI-related stocks. In contrast, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose about 0.5% as investors shifted toward defensive and value names.

    Technology and AI shares led the decline, extending a sector-wide selloff that has persisted into early February. Software and services stocks slid amid growing concerns that rapid advances in AI could disrupt traditional business models and squeeze margins for established companies.

    Advanced Micro Devices was a key drag on market sentiment, with its shares plunging around 17% after the company reported earnings and issued guidance that failed to meet lofty market expectations. Although AMD pointed to strong AI-driven demand, investors focused on pricing pressures and intensifying competition in data centers, resulting in the stock’s sharpest one-day drop in years.

    Focus also turned to Alphabet’s earnings after the close. The Google parent posted solid advertising revenue and reaffirmed plans for significant investment in AI infrastructure, but caution lingered over the near-term impact on profitability. Alphabet shares fell more than 1% in extended trading.

    Meanwhile, Qualcomm shares slid nearly 10% after hours after the company forecast second-quarter revenue and profit below Wall Street estimates, citing a global memory chip shortage expected to weigh on smartphone sales and broader device demand.

    U.S. private-sector payrolls rose by less than expected in January, signaling some cooling in the labor market.

    Broader market sentiment was also influenced by economic data. Figures released on Wednesday showed private-sector employment increased by just 22,000 jobs last month, well short of the 50,000 gain expected, following a downwardly revised rise of 37,000 in December.

    A brief government shutdown led to the postponement of the closely watched monthly jobs report, which had been scheduled for release on Friday.

    Investors are now turning their attention to weekly jobless claims data due on Thursday, which should offer a near-term snapshot of labor market conditions ahead of the delayed nonfarm payrolls report.

    Sources: Ayushman Ojha

  • Silver prices plunged 16%, erasing the recent recovery.

    Silver prices fell sharply during Asian trading on Thursday, dragging the broader precious metals complex lower as renewed selling pressure erased most of this week’s brief rebound.

    Spot silver plunged as much as 16.7% to $73.5565 an ounce, moving back toward the lows seen after last week’s selloff, while March silver futures slid more than 10% to $73.383 per ounce. The sudden drop unfolded during the Asian session and coincided with a modest rise in the U.S. dollar.

    According to Chris Weston, head of research at Pepperstone, the selloff originated in China, beginning with a decline in Shanghai silver futures before spreading to CME futures and spot markets.

    Precious metals have been under pressure from a stronger dollar over the past week, as the greenback rebounded from near four-year lows after markets interpreted President Donald Trump’s nominee for the next Federal Reserve Chair, Kevin Warsh, as less dovish than expected. This sentiment has continued to weigh on metal prices.

    Meanwhile, traders remained broadly positioned in favor of the dollar ahead of key European central bank meetings on Thursday and the release of U.S. nonfarm payrolls data on Friday.

    Sources: Ambar Warrick

  • Artificial Intelligence Raises the Competitive Stakes Across Tech

    On December 7, 2025, we advised maintaining a market-weight stance rather than an overweight position in the S&P 500’s Information Technology and Communication Services sectors. Since then, their combined share of the index’s market capitalization has fallen from a record 46.7% on November 5, 2025, to 43.9% as of Monday (see chart). This decline has occurred even as their combined contribution to S&P 500 earnings continued to climb, reaching a new high of 39.8% by Monday.

    Despite strong growth in the two sectors’ combined forward earnings, their aggregate forward P/E multiple has compressed from 28.9 on November 5, 2025, to 24.3 currently (see chart).

    On December 7 last year, we argued that AI was intensifying competition among the Magnificent Seven, compelling them to sharply ramp up investment in AI infrastructure. On that basis, we recommended an underweight position. We expect the primary beneficiaries of this dynamic to be the broader S&P 500—often referred to as the “Impressive 493”—which are leveraging AI tools to boost productivity rather than competing on infrastructure scale.

    Technology has always been a highly competitive industry, and AI is intensifying that dynamic even further. In my 2018 book Predicting the Markets, I described the tech sector as a textbook case of “creative destruction,” where new innovations relentlessly displace older technologies.

    More recently, software stocks have come under pressure as AI tools become increasingly proficient at writing code (see charts). While forward earnings for the sector have climbed to record levels, investors have compressed valuation multiples in response to the growing competitive threat posed by AI.

    On Tuesday, software stocks were hit particularly hard after Anthropic unveiled new tools for its Cowork product. While it remains too early to assess their practical impact, investors responded by marking down valuation multiples across the software sector.

    By contrast, semiconductor stocks have proven relatively resilient, even as the industry’s forward P/E multiple has declined amid a sharp surge in forward earnings (see chart). Competitive pressures are intensifying, particularly among chips designed to rival Nvidia’s (NASDAQ: NVDA) GPUs. At the same time, tight memory supply has driven prices sharply higher, though history suggests that once capacity expands to meet demand, those prices are likely to retreat.

    Shares of semiconductor equipment makers have continued to climb, alongside rising earnings and expanding valuation multiples (see chart). This strength reflects the industry’s relative insulation from competitive pressures, as these companies benefit whenever demand is strong for equipment that enables chipmakers to expand production capacity.

    Sources: Ed Yardeni

  • Nasdaq 100 Weakness Weighs on S&P 500 as Valuation Concerns Intensify

    Stocks came under heavy pressure, even as the S&P 500 ended the session with a relatively modest 85-basis-point decline. Losses were concentrated in technology and software, with the Nasdaq 100 sliding more than 1.5% and the XLK technology ETF falling over 2%. The selloff in software has been particularly severe, with several names now trading below their 2022 lows. Adobe, for instance, closed at its weakest level since October 2019.

    In some ways, the current environment echoes the shift from 2021 into 2022. The crucial difference is that the Federal Reserve is now in an easing cycle, whereas policy was tightening back then. Oil prices were also racing toward $100 at the time, while this week they have struggled to stay above $60. Even so, the pattern is familiar: the Software ETF (IGV) peaked well ahead of the S&P 500 and helped pull the broader market lower, a dynamic that has also played out across several other market segments.

    Pressure has also resurfaced in private equity stocks, with many now trading below their November lows.

    Meanwhile, consumer staples—tracked by XLP—are surging to record highs in an unusually sharp move, reinforcing the view that markets are undergoing a broader re-rating of risk. This shift may reflect growing expectations of multiple compression, driven either by concerns that a new Fed chair could be less supportive of markets and liquidity, or by an increasing tendency among investors to separate winners from losers in the AI race.

    I see this mainly as a re-pricing of risk and the early phase of multiple compression, a view that is reinforced by Microsoft’s (NASDAQ: MSFT) P/E ratio.

    Sources: Michael Kramer

  • Growing Tensions Rock the Software Industry

    The brief sense of relief following the easing selloff in metals quickly faded after news emerged that Anthropic—an AI startup backed by Amazon and Google—had launched a new AI tool capable of performing legal and research tasks traditionally handled via paid databases. The announcement rattled markets, sparking fears that AI-driven disruption is accelerating and threatening the core business models of software firms that provide data analytics and decision-support tools to law firms, banks, and corporations.

    The result was a renewed bout of panic selling, particularly across software stocks. In Europe, RELX and London Stock Exchange Group plunged 14% and 12% respectively, while Thomson Reuters dropped 15%. Experian, Pearson, and Sage were also caught in the downdraft. In the US, shares of FactSet, Salesforce, and Adobe fell sharply, with Adobe sliding to its lowest level in nearly six years as concerns mounted that AI competition could severely undermine parts of its core business. Even tech heavyweights were not spared: Microsoft declined 2.87% and is now roughly 25% below its November peak.

    Broader technology markets also weakened. VanEck’s Semiconductor ETF fell 2.5%, while Google—despite being one of the leading AI beneficiaries—slipped 1.22% after recently hitting a record high. The selloff spilled into Asia as well, with Tencent down around 3%. South Korea’s Kospi, however, largely avoided the turmoil, supported by continued strength in Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix amid tight memory supply and strong pricing power.

    On the earnings front, AMD reported a solid beat, posting revenue above $10 billion and adjusted EPS of $1.53, both exceeding expectations. Growth was driven by robust demand for data-center and AI products, alongside solid performance in PCs and gaming. Despite impressive figures—including 39% growth in data-center revenue and 34% growth in PCs—and an upbeat message from CEO Lisa Su, the company’s outlook failed to meet elevated market expectations. AMD shares fell roughly 8% in after-hours trading.

    Nasdaq futures are modestly lower at the time of writing, suggesting no immediate intensification of the software-led selloff. Still, recent earnings reactions highlight a broader issue: even companies delivering strong results are being punished, as investors demand ever-higher performance to justify stretched valuations.

    Attention now turns to upcoming earnings from Google and Qualcomm later today, with Amazon reporting after Thursday’s close. By week’s end, markets may have a clearer picture of where the AI trade is headed. So far, enthusiasm has been muted—Meta, for instance, failed to sustain its post-earnings rally despite AI-driven revenue growth.

    It increasingly appears that the AI rally is being unwound, largely irrespective of earnings strength.

    Elsewhere, geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran escalated after reports that the US Navy shot down an Iranian drone approaching a US aircraft carrier in the Arabian Sea. That development pushed US crude prices up about 2.4%, with prices now consolidating just below $64 per barrel. While geopolitically driven spikes can offer short-term trading opportunities, risks remain skewed to the upside given the fragile situation.

    Zooming out, gold has climbed back above $5,000 per ounce. In the past, this might have signaled a classic flight to safety amid equity volatility and geopolitical stress. Today, however, it is less clear whether this reflects genuine risk aversion or a rapid rotation from one crowded trade—AI—into another—metals.

    Safe-haven options appear increasingly constrained. Gold remains volatile, US 10-year yields are elevated amid debt concerns and potential further Fed balance-sheet tightening, and the Japanese yen continues to struggle. USDJPY is testing its 50-day moving average near 156.30 and could push higher ahead of the weekend’s snap election. That leaves the Swiss franc, with USDCHF encountering resistance near 0.78. Meanwhile, EURUSD is gradually recovering after holding support near 1.1780, while sterling is consolidating above 1.37.

    Both moves are largely driven by dollar dynamics. The dollar index has come under renewed pressure ahead of US labor data, though the Bureau of Labor Statistics has announced it will not release payroll figures this Friday due to a partial government shutdown. As a result, today’s ADP report takes on added significance and is expected to show roughly 46,000 private-sector job gains—a weak figure that would reinforce the view that US economic strength remains narrowly concentrated in AI-related investment rather than broad-based growth. This two-speed economy complicates the Fed’s policy outlook.

    Soft labor data would likely support a more dovish Federal Reserve stance, which—absent policy shifts from the ECB or the Bank of England—could further bolster the euro and sterling against the dollar. I continue to expect EURUSD to move back toward, and ultimately above, the 1.20 level.

    Sources: Ipek Ozkardeskaya

  • Zurich Insurance and Beazley Agree on Potential £8 Billion Transaction

    Zurich Insurance Group AG (SIX: ZURN) and Beazley PLC (LON: BEZG) have agreed in principle on the main financial terms of a potential all-cash offer, valuing the UK-based insurer at around £8 billion. Under the proposed transaction, Beazley shareholders would receive up to 1,335 pence per share, consisting of 1,310 pence in cash plus allowable dividends of up to 25 pence for the year ending December 31, 2025.

    The indicative offer implies a premium of almost 60% to Beazley’s closing price of 820 pence on January 16, the final trading day before the offer period commenced, and represents a 34.6% uplift to the company’s record high of 973 pence reached on June 6, 2025.

    Beazley’s board said it would be “minded to recommend” the proposal to shareholders should a firm offer be made on the outlined financial terms, subject to agreement on remaining conditions and the execution of definitive documentation.

    The proposed deal would bring together two complementary operations, forming a leading global specialty insurance group with roughly $15 billion in gross written premiums, supported by Beazley’s strong position at Lloyd’s of London.

    Zurich is required to announce a firm intention to proceed with an offer by February 16, or confirm that it does not plan to make a bid. The Swiss insurer currently owns a 1.479% stake in Beazley, equivalent to 8,866,051 ordinary shares.

    Sources: Maria Ponnezhath

  • Morgan Stanley Names Leading Japanese Tire Stocks for Investors

    Morgan Stanley published a new analysis of Japan’s tire industry, reaffirming Overweight (OW) ratings on two major companies with solid growth prospects despite differing market pressures. The report highlights firms well positioned to benefit from opportunities in North America while navigating sector-specific challenges.

    1. Toyo Tire — Morgan Stanley reiterates its Overweight rating on Toyo, pointing to growing confidence in the company’s growth strategy and shareholder return outlook ahead of its Medium-Term Plan announcement on March 4. Analysts see additional upside as investors continue to factor in stronger demand for WLTR (Wide Light Truck Radial) tires in North America, where Toyo holds a well-established market position.

    2. Bridgestone — Bridgestone also retains an Overweight rating, supported by initiatives to reinvigorate the Firestone brand in the North American market. Morgan Stanley highlights encouraging expectations from the company’s restructuring efforts, while cautioning that soft OE (Original Equipment) demand for TBR (Truck and Bus Radial) tires in North and South America presents a downside risk. Nonetheless, replacement demand in these regions remains resilient.

    Sources: Investing

  • Bitcoin slides to $76K after heavy liquidations push prices to 15-month lows

    Bitcoin hovered just above 15-month lows on Wednesday after a sharp sell-off drove the world’s largest cryptocurrency down toward the $73,000 level amid a wave of liquidations and heightened risk aversion. The token was last trading 2.8% lower at $76,509.1 as of 01:56 ET (06:56 GMT), having earlier touched $73,004.3—its weakest level since November 2024.

    Following the weekend’s slump, Bitcoin fell nearly 12% last week, building on a roughly 10% decline in the prior week. The latest drop marks its lowest point since Donald Trump’s U.S. election victory, wiping out gains that had previously been supported by optimism around potential regulatory easing for the cryptocurrency sector.

    Bitcoin sinks to a 15-month low as mass liquidations accelerate

    The downturn was accompanied by widespread liquidations of leveraged long positions. According to data from crypto analytics firm CoinGlass, nearly $740 million in bullish bets were erased over the past 24 hours, as falling prices triggered margin calls and forced traders to close positions.

    Bitcoin’s latest weakness represents a sharp reversal from the strong rally seen late last year, when prices surged in the wake of Donald Trump’s election victory. At that time, investors poured into cryptocurrencies on expectations that a new U.S. administration would adopt a more supportive regulatory approach to digital assets. Additional tailwinds came from Federal Reserve rate cuts starting in December 2024, which helped fuel demand for higher-risk assets.

    Gold and other traditional safe-haven assets rebounded on Wednesday as geopolitical tensions between the United States and Iran intensified.

    At the same time, cryptocurrency markets remain under pressure amid uncertainty surrounding U.S. monetary policy following President Trump’s nomination of former Federal Reserve Governor Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair. Warsh is widely regarded as a policy hawk, raising concerns over tighter liquidity conditions.

    Crypto prices today: Altcoins retreat, Cardano slides 6%

    Most altcoins remained under pressure on Thursday, posting steeper losses than Bitcoin. Ethereum, the world’s second-largest cryptocurrency, slipped 2.3% to $2,268.92, while XRP, ranked third, edged 1.1% lower to $1.59.

    Solana dropped 6%, while Cardano also moved lower and Polygon declined 3.5%. Among meme tokens, Dogecoin was marginally weaker, down 0.2%.

    Sources: Ayushman Ojha

  • Gold Demand Remains Structurally Strong Despite Short-Term Fed Noise

    The mainstream narrative claims that a new Fed chair will safeguard the central bank’s independence from U.S. government influence—and that this alone justifies a $1,200/oz drop in gold and a $50 collapse in silver.

    Put simply, that narrative is complete nonsense.

    Fiat currency is best thought of as meme—or even junk—money, and despite its obvious flaws, it can still enjoy periodic rallies against what many see as the ultimate form of money: gold. These countertrend moves typically emerge during bouts of speculative excess, much like the frothy conditions that have dominated markets over the past couple of months.

    From a fundamental standpoint, the gold bull market remains fully intact. Billions of gold-focused savers across China and India—along with a smaller group of informed Western investors—do not rely on central banks for validation. Their priority is building long-term wealth in gold, not accumulating ever more fiat currency and debt.

    In the context of this broader bull cycle, it makes little difference who occupies the Fed chair. What matters is whether gold is attractively priced. When it is, prudent savers see it as an opportunity to accumulate more, regardless of short-term fiat-driven narratives.

    The long-awaited “exciting buy zone” has finally come into play. Gold investors were encouraged to prepare for a meaningful dip into the $4,400 area, and that discounted opportunity has now materialized.

    Sustainable wealth building is not about predicting prices, but about preparing for unexpected moves. This pullback unfolded over just a few days, leaving unprepared investors confused and still focused on guessing what happens next.

    The key development now is that the $5,600 region has emerged as a major accumulation zone on any future pullback. Gold investors should already be positioning themselves to take advantage of that opportunity if and when it presents itself.

    As for silver, the recent price sell-off was “super-sized,” driven by large and heavily leveraged bets against fiat currencies. That decline ultimately found support at the $70 buy zone, aligning perfectly with gold’s move into the $4,400 area.

    Gold remains the undisputed leader of the precious metals complex. If silver investors and mining-stock enthusiasts take their cues from gold bullion, they position themselves to build substantial and durable wealth. The most likely near-term path for silver is a broad trading range between $70 and $120, followed by a powerful upside breakout that could propel prices toward the next target zone of $170–$200.

    Over the longer term, silver has the potential to trade well above $1,000, largely because governments worldwide—both in the East and the West—continue to cling to fiat currencies and debt rather than returning to sound money anchored in gold.

    A new 40-year inflation cycle began in 2020 and is unlikely to end until U.S. interest rates reach record highs. Unlike the cycle’s conclusion in 1980, however, elevated rates this time are unlikely to curb inflation, as it is being driven by ongoing government policies rather than purely monetary conditions.

    Another perspective on U.S. rates: the incoming Fed chair is more likely to lean toward fiscal restraint on a debt-addicted U.S. government than to dispense easy-money policies of QE and rate cuts. Such a stance would have implications for long-term sovereign yields worldwide, and global money managers are likely to continue shifting capital into gold as a strategic response.

    As interest rates continue their relentless climb in the years ahead, governments will inevitably confront their “Queen Gold maker.” They will be forced to begin replacing fragile fiat currencies with gold—or face effective financial ruin.

    As for robots, they will simply become another cost burden for citizens already trapped in stagflation. As automation expands rapidly and robot populations eventually outnumber humans, workers will be left competing for a shrinking pool of jobs. Confronted with government-driven stagflation and lacking the protection of gold savings, many will endure severe financial stress—conditions that would be further worsened by a stock market crash.

    As for the miners, they too presented exceptional buying opportunities when gold dipped to $4,400. The CDNX is now starting to emerge from a decade-long base, with price action that closely resembles gold’s breakout above $2,000. The initial rally may appear deceptive, but it is genuine—because this type of breakout unfolds as a process rather than a single, short-lived move. Notably, trading volumes across CDNX-listed stocks have surged, reinforcing the strength of the move.

    While pockets of speculative excess briefly appeared in gold and silver bullion, such froth has been absent in the mining sector. Several silver explorers nearing production are projecting all-in sustaining costs well below $20, while gold explorers with large-scale projects are reporting AISC figures under $2,000. The conclusion is clear: junior gold and silver miners may represent the most undervalued segment in market history.

    And what about the senior miners? The GDX versus gold chart is striking. Since the 2015 low—when the head of a massive inverse head-and-shoulders pattern began to form—I’ve been guiding investors through this setup. That structure points not merely to years, but potentially decades of strong performance for gold equities. In alignment with the CDNX-to-fiat picture, the breakout process is now underway.

    The GDX daily chart delivers a real “wow factor.” The latest five-wave advance was remarkable—and signs suggest a new leg higher may already be unfolding. Notably, GDX’s recent pullback held well above its October highs, even as gold retraced back to that level. That kind of relative strength is a powerful signal that further upside is likely.

    Even if gold consolidates between $5,600 and $4,400, and silver oscillates between $120 and $70, GDX and many of its underlying stocks could still push on to new highs. With 2026 marking the Chinese Year of the Fire Horse—symbolizing bold action and the fight for freedom—the question arises: are gold and silver equities poised for their own moment of liberation, breaking out to extraordinary new levels? The evidence suggests they are.

    Sources: Stewart Thomson

  • Dow Jones: Triangle Pattern Points to an Imminent Volatility Break

    The Dow Jones continues to trade within an increasingly narrow range, as buyers find support along the December trendline while sellers cap advances near 49,580. The longer this compression persists, the higher the likelihood of a decisive and volatile breakout once the range is resolved.

    • Triangle pattern continues to tighten as pressure mounts.
    • 49,580 stands as the critical upside barrier.
    • The breakout will determine direction, not strength.

    Something has to give in the Dow Jones contract as price action continues to compress within an ascending triangle. Buyers remain active along the trendline support drawn from early December, while sellers continue to defend the 49,580 area. The market is effectively locked in a stalemate, and the longer this coiling persists, the greater the likelihood of a sharp, potentially explosive move once the pattern finally resolves.

    Traditionally, this setup favors a bullish resolution, opening the door to fresh record highs, with a push beyond 51,000 possible given the placement of the triangle. A decisive break and close above 49,580 would allow long positions to be established above the level, with stops placed just below for risk management. While the 50,000 mark will naturally attract close attention due to its psychological importance, I would prefer to see a clear topping formation before reassessing whether to trim, exit, or maintain positions.

    That said, technical conventions do not always play out—particularly against a backdrop of elevated valuations—so traders should remain mindful of the potential for a downside break from the pattern.

    For now, the December uptrend is tracking closely alongside the 50-day moving average, creating a key zone where both long and short opportunities could emerge, depending on price behavior, should another pullback unfold.

    A successful test and rebound from support could offer opportunities to establish long positions, targeting a retest of resistance near 49,580. Conversely, a decisive break and close below this zone would flip the bias, opening the door for short positions with stops placed above the trendline for protection. On the downside, 47,840 emerges as the first notable objective, aligning with multiple rebound points seen in December. Below that, 47,200—where the current uptrend originated—comes into focus, followed by the 46,875 area, which saw considerable two-way price action in the final quarter of 2025.

    Adding some support to the bullish case, the 14-period RSI has broken its downward trend and is holding above the 50 level, indicating that downside momentum has stalled for now. The MACD echoes this view, turning back toward its signal line from below while remaining in positive territory. Overall, the signals suggest a neutral near-term bias, though with a slight edge still favoring the bulls.

    Sources: David Scutt

  • Global Climate Tax Proposal Targets Big Oil

    The United Nations is considering a global tax framework that would tie oil and gas industry profits to climate compensation, though deep divisions among member states leave the outcome uncertain. Attempts to hold major energy producers financially accountable for climate change are not new. However, as the costs of the energy transition mount and legal efforts deliver mixed results, taxation is increasingly being viewed as an alternative policy instrument.

    The United Nations is currently weighing the creation of a new international tax cooperation framework that could, among other objectives, channel funds from the oil and gas industry toward climate-related compensation. While the proposal reflects a familiar ambition to hold the industry financially accountable for climate change, its prospects remain uncertain.

    The initiative falls under the Framework Convention on International Tax Cooperation, which is being negotiated at UN headquarters in New York. The broader goal is to strengthen global tax collection mechanisms and increase taxation on the world’s wealthiest entities and individuals. Sustainability features prominently in the discussions, with many countries—particularly those experiencing frequent climate-related disasters—supporting efforts to make major oil producers contribute financially. At the same time, resistance remains strong among other member states that oppose assigning climate liability to the energy sector or implementing a global wealth tax.

    Recent proposals have suggested linking oil and gas profits directly to climate compensation payments. However, critics argue that these ideas lack sufficient clarity and enforcement power, limiting their viability. Supporters note that such measures could have generated as much as $1 trillion in additional revenue since the 2015 Paris Agreement, highlighting the scale of the opportunity lost if no agreement is reached.

    Any move to formally tax Big Oil for its alleged role in man-made climate change would almost certainly provoke a strong response from the industry, likely through legal challenges. This would build on an already extensive record of climate-related litigation, where activist groups have achieved mixed results.

    In the United States, California launched a lawsuit against major oil companies in 2024, accusing them of downplaying the climate risks associated with fossil fuels. The case targets companies including Exxon Mobil, Chevron, BP, and ConocoPhillips. State Attorney General Rob Bonta later strengthened the case by adding a provision aimed at forcing companies to surrender profits derived from alleged wrongful conduct. However, the lawsuit’s progress remains unclear, and California officials have recently softened their rhetoric toward oil companies in an effort to keep refineries operating and prevent fuel price spikes.

    Maine has pursued a similar legal path, filing a “climate deception” lawsuit against several oil majors and the American Petroleum Institute. A federal judge allowed the case to proceed last year, with plaintiffs alleging that the defendants concealed information about the environmental and economic consequences of fossil fuel use.

    This wave of so-called climate lawfare has become a favored strategy among activists seeking to penalize the fossil fuel industry. Yet given the uncertain outcomes of court cases, taxation is increasingly viewed as a more reliable alternative. The energy transition has proven far more expensive than initially anticipated, and governments are searching for sustainable funding sources.

    Big Oil remains an obvious target due to its substantial profits from essential energy commodities that are widely blamed for climate change. Whether the UN negotiations ultimately result in a binding global tax remains to be seen. Even if they do, governments hoping for swift revenue may need patience—because the oil and gas industry is unlikely to accept such measures without a prolonged fight.

    Sources: Irina Slav

  • Solana slides under $100 as selling pressure intensifies.

    • Solana remains below the $100 level on Wednesday after shedding more than 6% in the previous session.
    • Weakening retail sentiment alongside subdued institutional interest points to a growing bearish bias.
    • From a technical perspective, rising selling pressure suggests further downside toward the $85 region.

    Solana (SOL) remains below the $100 mark at press time on Wednesday, following a decline of more than 6% in the prior session amid broader weakness across the cryptocurrency market. Both institutional and retail interest in Solana continue to fade, even as on-chain metrics recorded a record 150 million daily transactions on Tuesday. From a technical standpoint, strengthening bearish momentum points to the risk of a further slide toward the $85 level.

    Weakening demand reinforces downside risks amid deteriorating market conditions.

    Solana continues to see robust on-chain user activity, with daily transaction volume reaching a record high on Tuesday. According to Blockworks data, the network processed over 150 million transactions during the day, averaging approximately 1,743 transactions per second.

    Despite resilient on-chain activity, institutional inflows have stayed muted over the past three weeks, averaging no more than $9 million per day since January and including three sessions of net outflows. Data from Sosovalue shows that U.S. Solana-focused exchange-traded funds (ETFs) posted inflows of $1.24 million on Tuesday, following a $5.58 million inflow recorded on Monday.

    Meanwhile, signals from the derivatives market point to a bearish tilt in Solana sentiment, accompanied by capital outflows. CoinGlass data shows that SOL open interest fell by 1.24% over the past 24 hours to $6.37 billion, suggesting capital exited the market through position closures or reduced leverage.

    Liquidation data further highlights the bearish bias, with long liquidations totaling $22.31 million during the period—more than five times the $4.39 million in short liquidations.

    In addition, Solana’s OI-weighted funding rate has slipped to -0.0238%, underscoring increasingly negative sentiment as traders holding or initiating short positions are willing to pay a premium to maintain them.

    The waning bullish appetite for Solana mirrors the broader market downturn, which has seen total liquidations of around $735 million over the past 24 hours, including approximately $529 million from long positions.

    Moreover, the broader cryptocurrency market remains under pressure, with the Fear and Greed Index falling to 14 on Wednesday—pointing to extreme risk-averse sentiment among investors. Without a meaningful improvement in market mood, Solana may face additional downside.

    Technical Outlook: Is Solana headed toward $85?

    Solana continues to trade below its 50-, 100-, and 200-day Exponential Moving Averages at $127, $139, and $153, respectively, keeping the broader trend firmly under pressure. The shorter-term EMAs remain positioned beneath the longer-term averages, forming a bearish alignment that has capped recent rebound attempts.

    A sustained move below the $95 level would leave the S1 Pivot Point at $85 as the next downside target.

    Momentum indicators remain decisively negative, with the MACD and signal line both trending lower and extending further into bearish territory on the daily chart. Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index stands at 28 and is consolidating within oversold territory, a setup that could still allow for additional downside despite stretched conditions.

    On the upside, a recovery back above the $100 level could shift focus toward the 50-day EMA near $127 as the initial upside objective.

    Sources: Vishal Dixit

  • USD: Government shutdown ends — UBS

    U.S. President Donald Trump has signed legislation bringing the government shutdown to an end, an outcome that markets largely took in stride given how routine such episodes have become.

    However, UBS Chief Economist Paul Donovan noted that Democrats have coalesced in opposition to confirming former Federal Reserve Governor Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair until the administration’s legal challenge involving the Fed is resolved. This impasse raises the possibility that Chair Jerome Powell could remain in office beyond May.

    Resolution of the government shutdown influences market conditions.

    Government dysfunction in the U.S. has become so routine that financial markets largely ignored it.

    Democrats have indicated they will block the confirmation of former Federal Reserve Governor Warsh as the next Fed chair unless the administration halts its legal actions against the Federal Reserve.

    While this outcome was widely anticipated, it increases the likelihood that Chair Powell could remain as FOMC chair—though not as Chair of the Board of Governors—beyond May.

    Sources: Bloomberg

  • WisdomTree says crypto has become a core part of its business

    WisdomTree CEO Jonathan Steinberg said the firm’s push into tokenization is approaching profitability, underscoring a shift in which crypto has evolved from a small-scale experiment into a core pillar of the company’s strategy.

    The asset manager has rapidly expanded its digital-asset business, growing tokenized assets under management from roughly $30 million to about $750 million, while extending its offerings across additional blockchains, including Solana.

    Steinberg described crypto as a foundation for modernizing financial infrastructure, pointing to initiatives such as tokenized investment products, the WisdomTree Connect platform, and a deliberate focus on compliance-oriented tokenization technology as central to the firm’s long-term growth plans.

    New York — WisdomTree’s crypto business has moved beyond the experimental phase and is now central to the firm’s long-term strategy, with profitability coming into view, CEO Jonathan Steinberg said during a fireside chat at the Ondo Summit in New York on Tuesday.

    “We want to continue to scale,” Steinberg said, noting that the firm’s digital-asset business expanded from roughly $30 million to about $750 million in assets last year. While WisdomTree does not yet generate profits from its crypto operations, Steinberg said the company is now “within line of sight of taking this to a profitable business.”

    The $150 billion asset manager has been investing heavily in blockchain infrastructure, rolling out tokenized investment products and expanding to additional blockchains, including Solana. Steinberg emphasized that the push reflects long-term conviction rather than short-term experimentation. “It’s still early days, but it’s not an experiment now,” he said. “We have conviction, and we believe that eventually everything will move on-chain.”

    WisdomTree’s growing commitment to digital assets was also highlighted in its latest earnings presentation, which showed total tokenized assets under management rising to $770 million—an increase of roughly 25 times from 2024 levels.

    WisdomTree has emerged as an early and aggressive leader among traditional asset managers in the digital-asset space, rolling out a range of tokenized funds and recently broadening distribution through WisdomTree Connect, a platform that allows these assets to move seamlessly across self-custodied wallets and institutional systems.

    The firm has also made a strategic push into blockchain infrastructure, most notably through its acquisition of Securrency, a compliance-focused tokenization company that was later sold to the DTCC. Steinberg said the deal laid the groundwork for “compliance-aware tokens” and programmable finance, forming the backbone of WisdomTree’s long-term, interoperable digital-asset strategy.

    For Steinberg, crypto represents far more than a new product line—it signals a transformation of the financial system itself. “This is bigger than asset management; it’s really about financial services,” he said. He noted that many financial institutions are built on layers of legacy infrastructure accumulated over centuries, underscoring the need for modernization.

    Sources: Helene Braun and AI Boost

  • Crypto stabilizes as U.S. government shutdown ends

    The steep sell-off in cryptocurrencies eased on Tuesday after the U.S. House narrowly approved a funding package, sending the legislation to President Donald Trump’s desk and effectively ending the partial government shutdown.

    The House passed the bill by a slim 217–214 margin, clearing the way for the government to reopen once the president signs it. While lawmakers will continue negotiations over funding for the Department of Homeland Security in the coming days, most major federal agencies will remain funded.

    The development helped pause a panic-driven rout in crypto markets earlier in the session. Bitcoin briefly slid to around $72,800—its lowest level since before Trump’s election victory in November 2024—before stabilizing. At roughly $74,800, bitcoin was still down about 4.5% over the past 24 hours.

    Ether traded near $2,181, down 7% on the day and roughly 26% over the past week. Other major tokens, including XRP and Solana, recorded similar losses.

    U.S. equities also rebounded from their intraday lows but remained sharply lower overall, with the Nasdaq down around 2% and the S&P 500 lower by about 1.3%.

    Sources: Stephen Alpher and Nikhilesh De

  • WTI edges higher above $63.50 after U.S. downs Iranian drone

    • WTI crude prices edged higher to around $63.75 during Wednesday’s Asian trading session.
    • The move came after the U.S. military said it shot down an Iranian drone that “aggressively approached” a U.S. aircraft carrier, heightening geopolitical tensions.
    • Oil prices were also supported by data showing U.S. crude inventories recorded their largest decline since August 2023.

    West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the U.S. crude oil benchmark, was trading near $63.75 during Asian hours on Wednesday, edging higher amid rising concerns over escalating tensions between the United States and Iran. Market participants are also positioning ahead of the release of the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) crude oil inventory report later in the day.

    According to CNBC, the U.S. military shot down an Iranian drone on Tuesday that had “aggressively” approached the USS Abraham Lincoln aircraft carrier in the Arabian Sea. The incident comes at a time of heightened Middle East tensions, as U.S. President Donald Trump weighs potential military action against Iran.

    Iran has also insisted that talks with the United States this week be held in Oman rather than Turkey, and that negotiations be limited to bilateral discussions focused solely on nuclear issues, further complicating an already fragile diplomatic process. Any escalation in tensions between Washington and Tehran—OPEC’s fourth-largest crude producer—could provide near-term support to WTI prices.

    Meanwhile, the American Petroleum Institute’s (API) weekly report showed that U.S. crude inventories fell by 11.1 million barrels in the week ended January 30, sharply deeper than the 250,000-barrel decline seen the previous week and well below market expectations for a 700,000-barrel build. The sizeable drawdown in stockpiles could lend additional support to oil prices.

    On the downside, renewed demand for the U.S. dollar may cap gains in dollar-denominated commodities. U.S. President Donald Trump’s nomination of Governor Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve chair has led traders to expect a slower pace of interest rate cuts and a greater emphasis on reducing the Fed’s balance sheet under his leadership.

    Sources: Lallalit Srijandorn

  • Silver price forecast: XAG/USD jumps above $87.50 amid geopolitical risks

    • Silver prices climbed to around $87.60 during Wednesday’s Asian trading session.
    • However, shifting expectations surrounding the next Federal Reserve chair could limit further upside in the metal.
    • Demand for safe-haven assets strengthened after reports that the United States shot down an Iranian drone that was approaching an aircraft carrier.

    Silver prices (XAG/USD) climbed to around $87.60 during Asian trading on Wednesday, rebounding after a historic correction last week as dip-buying activity returned to the market.

    On Friday, U.S. President Donald Trump nominated Kevin Warsh to replace Jerome Powell as the next Chair of the Federal Reserve, with Warsh expected to assume the role when Powell’s term ends in May. Expectations that Trump’s nominee may favor keeping interest rates elevated to combat inflation have supported the U.S. dollar, potentially weighing on dollar-denominated commodities such as silver.

    Precious metals have also faced pressure from margin hikes by the CME Group. Over the weekend, the exchange raised margin requirements for gold and silver, forcing many leveraged traders to liquidate positions to meet higher costs.

    On the other hand, safe-haven demand has been underpinned by rising geopolitical risks and economic uncertainty. Reuters reported on Tuesday that the U.S. military shot down an Iranian drone that “aggressively” approached the Abraham Lincoln aircraft carrier in the Arabian Sea.

    Separately, Iran requested that this week’s negotiations with the United States be held in Oman rather than Turkey and limited to bilateral discussions focused solely on nuclear issues. President Trump warned that with U.S. warships moving toward Iran, “bad things” could occur if an agreement is not reached.

    Sources: Lallalit Srijandorn

  • Australian dollar steady after China services PMI release

    • The Australian dollar strengthened after the Composite PMI surged to 55.7 in January, marking the fastest pace of expansion in nearly four years.
    • The Aussie also benefited as markets priced in an 80% probability of an interest rate hike in May, along with around 40 basis points of additional policy tightening.
    • Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar remained subdued for a second straight session.

    The Australian dollar strengthened against the U.S. dollar on Wednesday, extending gains of more than 1% from the previous session. The AUD/USD pair held firm after China’s Services Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) rose to 52.3 in January from 52.0 in December, beating market expectations of 51.8. As China is Australia’s largest trading partner, improvements in Chinese economic activity tend to support the Aussie.

    The AUD also drew support from upbeat domestic PMI data. Seasonally adjusted figures from S&P Global showed Australia’s Composite PMI climbed to 55.7 in January from 51.0 in December, marking the strongest expansion in 45 months. The Services PMI jumped to 56.3 from 51.1, its highest reading since February 2022, exceeding the flash estimate of 56.0 and remaining well above the 50.0 threshold. This extended the run of expansion in services activity to two years.

    The Reserve Bank of Australia raised its Official Cash Rate by 25 basis points to 3.85% on Tuesday, pointing to stronger-than-expected economic growth and persistently elevated inflation. As the tightening cycle gathers momentum, markets have increased the odds of another rate hike in May to around 80% and are now pricing in roughly 40 basis points of additional tightening through the rest of the year.

    Speaking at the post-meeting press conference, RBA Governor Michele Bullock said inflationary pressures remain uncomfortably high, warning that a return to the target range will take longer than previously expected and is no longer acceptable. She emphasized that the board will remain data-dependent and avoid providing forward guidance.

    U.S. dollar little changed after recent losses

    The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the greenback against six major currencies, remained subdued for a second straight session, trading near 97.40 at the time of writing.

    Data released on Monday showed an unexpected rebound in U.S. manufacturing activity, underscoring economic resilience. The ISM Manufacturing PMI rose to 52.6 in January from 47.9 in December, comfortably beating expectations of 48.5.

    Markets have also been assessing President Donald Trump’s nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve chair, a move widely interpreted as signaling a more disciplined and cautious approach to monetary easing. The dollar found some support earlier as risk sentiment improved after the U.S. Senate reached an agreement to advance a government funding package, averting a shutdown, according to Politico.

    Producer-side inflation in the U.S. remained firm, reinforcing the Fed’s policy stance. Headline PPI held steady at 3.0% year-over-year in December, unchanged from November and above expectations for a slowdown to 2.7%. Core PPI, which excludes food and energy, accelerated to 3.3% from 3.0%, defying forecasts for a decline to 2.9% and highlighting persistent upstream price pressures.

    Fed officials struck a cautious tone. St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem said additional rate cuts are not warranted at this stage, describing the current 3.50%–3.75% policy rate range as broadly neutral. Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic echoed this view, urging patience and arguing that policy should remain modestly restrictive.

    In Australia, inflation data showed mixed signals. The RBA’s trimmed mean inflation rose 0.2% month-over-month and 3.3% year-over-year, while the monthly CPI jumped 1.0% in December, exceeding forecasts of 0.7%. Export prices climbed 3.2% quarter-on-quarter in Q4 2025—the first increase in three quarters and the strongest gain in a year—while import prices rose 0.9%, beating expectations for a decline.

    China’s RatingDog Manufacturing PMI edged up to 50.3 in January from 50.1 in December, in line with expectations and marking the fastest pace of factory expansion since October.

    Additional Australian indicators pointed to easing inflation momentum and improving labor demand. The TD-MI Inflation Gauge rose 3.6% year-over-year in January, while monthly inflation increased just 0.2%, the weakest pace since August. Meanwhile, ANZ Job Advertisements surged 4.4% month-over-month in December, posting the strongest increase since February 2022 and signaling renewed momentum in hiring toward year-end.

    Australian dollar rebounds toward three-year highs near 0.7100

    The AUD/USD pair was trading near 0.7030 on Wednesday. Analysis of the daily chart shows the pair remains within an ascending channel, pointing to a sustained bullish bias. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 73.30, signaling strong upward momentum, though conditions appear increasingly stretched.

    AUD/USD recently rebounded toward 0.7094, its highest level since February 2023, reached on January 29. A decisive break above this resistance could open the way for a move toward the upper boundary of the ascending channel around 0.7210. On the downside, initial support is seen at the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) near 0.6964, which coincides with the channel’s lower boundary. A deeper pullback could bring the 50-day EMA at 0.6759 into focus.

    AUD/USD: Daily Chart

    Sources: Akhtar Faruqui

  • Asian stocks mixed as Wall Street losses cool tech rally; KOSPI hits record

    Asian equity markets were mixed on Wednesday, with South Korean stocks climbing to a record high, though broader gains were limited as a rally in technology shares lost momentum following a weaker close on Wall Street.

    U.S. markets finished lower overnight, led by declines in the technology sector as concerns resurfaced over potential disruption stemming from the rapid pace of advancements in artificial intelligence.

    The Nasdaq underperformed broader market indexes, as investors adopted a cautious stance ahead of key earnings reports from major U.S. technology companies.

    Alphabet (NASDAQ: GOOGL) is set to release its results later on Wednesday, followed by Amazon (NASDAQ: AMZN) on Thursday, with both reports expected to serve as important gauges of demand for advertising, cloud services, and AI-related spending.

    Asian stocks mixed as South Korea’s KOSPI hits record high

    Asian markets were coming off a strong previous session, when equities rallied broadly across the region.

    South Korea’s KOSPI climbed nearly 1% on Wednesday to a record high of 5,361.85 points, after surging almost 7% the day before on strong gains in heavyweight chipmakers and technology stocks.

    Japan’s Nikkei 225 slipped 0.7% following a roughly 4% advance in the prior session.

    Sentiment toward artificial intelligence remained volatile, as overnight declines in U.S. technology shares weighed on regional peers and triggered some profit-taking after recent sharp rallies.

    Elsewhere in the region, China’s Shanghai Composite edged up 0.1%, while the blue-chip CSI 300 slipped 0.2%. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng fell 0.5%.

    Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 added 0.5%, Singapore’s Straits Times Index was flat, and futures for India’s Nifty 50 ticked higher. The Nifty surged nearly 3% on Tuesday after the U.S. signed a trade agreement with India that sharply reduced tariffs.

    Fed overhaul concerns persist as China services PMI comes into focus

    Investors also remained cautious over President Donald Trump’s nomination of former Federal Reserve governor Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair.

    Warsh is widely regarded as having a hawkish policy stance, fueling concerns that U.S. interest rates may stay higher for longer.

    In China, a private-sector survey released on Wednesday showed that the services sector expanded in January at its fastest pace in three months.

    While the data provided some reassurance about underlying demand in the world’s second-largest economy, investor sentiment remained restrained amid ongoing concerns about uneven growth and subdued consumer confidence.

    Sources: Ayushman Ojha

  • Bitcoin wipes out post-election gains, slides to as low as $73,000

    Bitcoin fell sharply on Tuesday, giving up all gains made since President Donald Trump’s election victory, as selling pressure remained intense following heavy liquidations over the weekend. Ongoing uncertainty surrounding U.S. monetary policy further weighed on sentiment.

    The world’s largest cryptocurrency was last down 4.2% at $74,699.9 by 15:12 ET (20:12 GMT), marking its lowest level since early November 2024. Prices touched an intraday low of $73,004.3, leaving Bitcoin down roughly 59% from its record high and firmly entrenched in bear market territory.

    Menno Martens, a crypto specialist and product manager at VanEck, said the market is simply entering another familiar phase of the cycle.

    “There’s no question that this is a bear market,” Martens told Investing.com, noting that the current downturn differs from previous ones due to growing geopolitical and macroeconomic influences, particularly developments in the United States.

    He explained that the path of this cycle does not mirror past bull and bear markets exactly, largely because of these new external factors. However, Martens emphasized that the broader outlook remains unchanged, adding that VanEck continues to maintain a long-term perspective despite the current bearish conditions.

    Bitcoin weighed down by heavy liquidations and Trump’s Fed pick

    The sharp sell-off in cryptocurrencies over the weekend was fueled by widespread liquidations of leveraged positions, underscoring the heavy speculative buildup that had accumulated during last year’s rally. Data from derivatives tracking firms showed that crypto positions worth several billion dollars were wiped out in a short span, with long trades accounting for most of the forced closures.

    Thin market liquidity further amplified volatility, allowing relatively modest price moves to trigger cascading liquidations.

    Investor sentiment has also been dampened by broader macroeconomic uncertainty. Markets are weighing the implications of Kevin Warsh’s nomination as the next chair of the U.S. Federal Reserve, prompting a reassessment of the outlook for interest rates.

    Warsh is broadly perceived as leaning toward a more hawkish policy stance, stoking concerns that tighter financial conditions could persist for longer.

    Separately, the release of January’s closely watched U.S. employment report—originally scheduled for Friday—has been delayed due to a partial government shutdown, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

    White House crypto meeting ends without agreement on stablecoin yields

    The cryptocurrency industry and major U.S. banks remain divided over how to regulate stablecoin yields following a White House meeting, underscoring ongoing hurdles to advancing long-delayed crypto legislation, according to media reports.

    Executives from crypto companies, representatives from large banks, and government officials gathered in Washington to discuss market-structure rules, but made little headway on the key question of whether stablecoin issuers should be permitted to offer yield-like returns.

    Banks have warned that yield-bearing stablecoins could accelerate deposit outflows and threaten financial stability, while crypto firms argue that such features are essential for innovation, growth, and maintaining competitiveness.

    Crypto prices today: altcoins rebound as Polygon surges 10%

    Most altcoins also moved lower on Tuesday.

    Ethereum, the world’s second-largest cryptocurrency, fell 4.9% to $2,242.43, while third-ranked XRP declined 3.6% to $1.58.

    Solana dropped 4.1%, and Cardano eased 1.8%.

    Among meme tokens, Dogecoin slipped 2.1%, while the $TRUMP token fell 1.4%.

    Sources: Anuron Mitra

  • Canadian dollar gains as rising oil prices provide support

    The Canadian dollar strengthened by 0.3% against the U.S. dollar on Tuesday, buoyed by a rise in oil prices.

    The loonie traded within a range of 1.3637 to 1.3685 per U.S. dollar, as crude oil—one of Canada’s key export commodities—climbed 1.5%.

    At the same time, yields on Canada’s 10-year government bonds rose to a four-week high of 3.465%.

    Sources: Investing

  • Gold jumps back above $5,000 an ounce as Iran tensions fuel safe-haven demand

    Gold prices climbed back above key technical levels during Asian trading on Wednesday, as renewed signs of tension between the United States and Iran fueled safe-haven demand for the precious metal.

    Bullion extended its rebound from Tuesday after sharply recovering from recent losses, with dip-buying activity also remaining strong following last week’s more than $1,000 price sell-off.

    Spot gold gained 2% to $5,048.37 per ounce by 21:00 ET (02:00 GMT), while April gold futures advanced 2.8% to $5,017.19 per ounce.

    Other precious metals also moved higher on Wednesday, building on the rebound seen in the previous session. Spot silver gained 0.5% to $85.5245 per ounce, while spot platinum climbed 1.7% to $2,256.04 per ounce.

    Iran concerns return ahead of upcoming nuclear talks

    Renewed concerns over escalating tensions between the United States and Iran were a key catalyst for safe-haven demand, particularly after overnight reports that U.S. forces shot down an Iranian drone over the Arabian Sea.

    In a separate development, Iranian gunboats were reported to have approached a U.S.-linked oil tanker in the Strait of Hormuz.

    These incidents partially offset earlier statements from both Tehran and Washington indicating that talks would be held this Friday. News of the planned negotiations had previously eased market anxiety and weighed on safe-haven demand for gold.

    Gold’s recent pullback was largely driven by expectations that U.S. President Donald Trump’s nominee for Federal Reserve chair, Kevin Warsh, may adopt a less dovish stance than markets had anticipated. This fueled a sharp rally in the U.S. dollar, pressuring precious metals, while gold also faced profit-taking after surging to a record high near $5,600 per ounce last week.

    Despite the recent decline, gold remains up nearly 15% so far in 2026.

    ANZ analysts noted that the core fundamentals underpinning gold’s strength—safe-haven demand, robust physical buying, and ongoing central bank purchases—remain firmly intact.

    Sources: Ambar Warrick

  • Oil prices rise more than 1% amid escalating Iran tensions and expectations of a sharp drop in U.S. inventories.

    Oil prices climbed sharply during Asian trading on Wednesday, driven by reports of escalating tensions between the United States and Iran, which heightened fears of possible supply disruptions in the Middle East.

    Crude prices also found support from industry figures showing an unexpected and substantial drawdown in U.S. oil inventories last week, as severe cold weather across the country curtailed production.

    April Brent futures advanced 1.2% to $68.15 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude rose 1.4% to $63.69 per barrel as of 21:01 ET (02:01 GMT).

    Oil prices climb amid escalating U.S.-Iran tensions ahead of nuclear negotiations

    Overnight reports indicated that U.S. forces shot down an Iranian drone that was approaching a U.S. aircraft carrier in the Arabian Sea.

    In a separate incident, several Iranian gunboats were observed nearing a U.S.-flagged oil tanker in the Strait of Hormuz.

    These developments came just ahead of planned talks between Washington and Tehran later this week. However, Iranian officials have reportedly insisted that the negotiations—scheduled for Friday—be limited to bilateral discussions focused solely on nuclear issues, raising uncertainty over whether the talks will proceed at all.

    U.S. President Donald Trump has warned of further military action if Iran fails to comply with U.S. demands to rein in its nuclear program, while Tehran has vowed strong retaliation against any U.S. aggression.

    Any escalation of military activity in the Middle East could potentially disrupt regional oil supplies, a risk that has helped support crude prices in recent trading sessions.

    U.S. oil inventories fall sharply amid production disruptions, API data shows

    Oil prices also found support from industry figures showing a large and unexpected drawdown in U.S. crude inventories.

    Data from the American Petroleum Institute indicated that U.S. stockpiles fell by 11.1 million barrels in the week ended January 30, sharply contrasting with expectations for a 0.7 million-barrel build.

    API figures often signal a similar outcome in the official inventory report due later in the day.

    The sizeable drawdown was driven by severe cold weather across the United States, which disrupted oil production nationwide and hampered exports from the Gulf Coast.

    Supply disruptions in the U.S. have also contributed to stronger oil prices in recent weeks.

    Sources: Ambar Warrick

  • European stocks tick higher as metal sell-off subsides; Publicis in focus.

    European stocks inched higher on Tuesday, supported by a solid overnight close on Wall Street, as the recent sell-off in precious metals appeared to be short-lived.

    By 03:05 ET (08:05 GMT), Germany’s DAX was up 0.8%, France’s CAC 40 added 0.4%, and the U.K.’s FTSE 100 edged 0.1% higher.

    Stabilizing metals markets lift investor sentiment.

    Global markets—including European equities—have steadied after several days of heightened volatility, marked in particular by sharp declines in gold and silver prices late last week and over the weekend.

    Precious metals rebounded on Monday, restoring some investor confidence and helping lift the blue-chip Dow Jones Industrial Average by more than 500 points, or around 1%, on Wall Street.

    Market sentiment also improved after U.S. President Donald Trump announced late Monday that the United States had reached a trade agreement with India, cutting tariffs on Indian goods to 18% from 50%.

    The deal followed months of negotiations during which punitive tariffs had climbed as high as 50% and was widely viewed as a step toward normalizing trade relations.

    Publicis draws investor attention.

    Back in Europe, focus has returned to the quarterly earnings season, with a large number of major companies across the region scheduled to report results this week.

    Publicis Groupe is in focus on Tuesday after a series of strong client wins helped the French advertising group deliver underlying fourth-quarter revenue ahead of expectations. The company generated €2.03 billion in free cash flow before working capital movements in 2025, up 10.6% from the previous year, and proposed a fully cash dividend of €3.75 per share, representing a 4.2% increase.

    Elsewhere in France, asset manager Amundi posted a 6% rise in adjusted pretax income for 2025 to €1.86 billion, supported by record net inflows of €88 billion as it rolled out a new strategic plan aimed at driving growth through 2028.

    In the Netherlands, Akzo Nobel reported a solid improvement in fourth-quarter margins compared with a year earlier, as the paints manufacturer contends with subdued demand while pursuing a potential merger with U.S. rival Axalta Coating Systems.

    Attention is also on U.S. earnings later Tuesday, with results due from companies such as PayPal, Pfizer, and Marathon Petroleum, ahead of Advanced Micro Devices’ earnings after the close. Sentiment toward AI-related stocks remains fragile following poorly received results from Microsoft last week.

    French consumer prices decline.

    Data released earlier in the session indicated that inflation pressures remain subdued in France, the eurozone’s second-largest economy.

    French consumer prices declined 0.3% month on month in January, while annual inflation stood at just 0.3%, undershooting expectations of 0.6%.

    Attention now turns to the European Central Bank’s policy meeting later this week, where policymakers are widely expected to leave interest rates unchanged at 2% for a fifth consecutive meeting.

    ECB President Christine Lagarde may also be pressed on the implications of a stronger euro for inflation, after the single currency briefly climbed above $1.20 last week, marking its highest level since 2021. It has since retreated but remains more than 2% higher over the past two weeks.

    Crude prices continue to edge lower

    Oil prices edged lower on Tuesday, extending losses for a second straight session, as easing tensions between the United States and Iran reduced the geopolitical risk premium in crude markets.

    Brent futures slipped 0.4% to $65.96 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude fell 0.4% to $61.90.

    Both benchmarks dropped more than 4% in the previous session after President Donald Trump said Iran was “seriously talking” with Washington, signaling a potential de-escalation with the OPEC member.

    Further pressure came from reports that Iran and the U.S. are set to resume nuclear talks on Friday in Turkey, according to Reuters.

    Oil prices were also weighed down by a firmer U.S. dollar, with the dollar index hovering near a more-than-one-week high, dampening demand from holders of other currencies.

    Sources: Peter Nurse

  • Silver price forecast: XAG/USD rebounds above $87 after two-day decline.

    Silver has climbed above $87.00 after rebounding from one-month lows below $72.00. Precious metals are rising on Tuesday as overall market sentiment improves, though XAG/USD bulls may face resistance in the $88.00–$90.00 zone.

    Silver (XAG/USD) is posting modest gains on Tuesday, trading around $87.05 at the time of writing. The white metal has stabilized after plunging more than 30% over the previous two sessions, which pushed prices to one-month lows just below the $72.00 level.

    In a departure from their typical behavior, precious metals are rebounding alongside an improvement in broader market sentiment. Optimism stemming from a trade agreement between the United States and India, along with reports of forthcoming nuclear talks with Iran, has lifted investor confidence and increased appetite for risk assets.

    Technical analysis: XAG/USD faces immediate resistance at $88.00.

    XAG/USD has recovered part of its recent losses, though technical indicators continue to signal a bearish bias. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains below both the signal line and the zero level, even as the negative histogram narrows toward zero. Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is ticking higher, suggesting a gradual easing of downside pressure, but it remains below the critical 50 threshold.

    On the upside, the pair is expected to encounter resistance near Monday’s highs around the $88.00 mark. A sustained break above this level could shift attention toward the psychological $100.00 handle, followed by intraday resistance near $104.00.

    On the downside, immediate support is located at the monthly low of $71.37. A break below this level would expose the early-December highs and mid-December lows clustered around the $60.00 area.

    Sources: Guillermo Alcala

  • UK grocery inflation slows to 4.0%, the lowest level since April

    UK grocery inflation slowed to 4.0% in the four weeks ending January 25, marking its lowest level since April last year, according to figures released Tuesday by market researcher Worldpanel by Numerator.

    The reading eased from the 4.3% inflation rate reported in Worldpanel’s previous update, offering modest relief to households grappling with elevated food prices.

    The data also serves as an early signal of price pressures ahead of the UK’s official inflation release scheduled for February 18.

    Despite the moderation in inflation, Worldpanel noted that UK grocery sales increased 3.8% year on year in value terms over the four-week period. Adjusted for inflation, however, this translates into a decline in volumes, indicating that consumers are buying less even as overall spending rises.

    Sources: Investing

  • Precious metals are starting to lose some of their luster.

    Although gold, silver, and platinum were the top-performing commodities over the past year, they came under pressure late last week.

    Metals suffer a sharp pullback after hitting record highs.

    Silver and gold suffered a sharp sell-off early Friday, dragging mining stocks and related ETFs lower. After an exceptional run in 2025, both metals have begun to give back part of their gains. Silver slid roughly 15%, falling back below the $100 level, while gold dropped about 7% and struggled to hold above $5,000. Weakness spread across the sector, with platinum and palladium also declining by around 14% and 12%, respectively.

    Mining equities and ETFs came under heavy pressure. Producers such as Fresnillo, along with silver miners Endeavour and First Majestic, posted double-digit losses in pre-market trading. Silver-focused ETFs were hit even harder, with some falling as much as 25%.

    Following last year’s explosive rally—when silver surged 150% and gold gained 65%—the market appears to be undergoing a correction. Overcrowded positioning, uncertainty surrounding the Federal Reserve’s policy outlook, and shifts in geopolitics and the U.S. dollar have all fueled the sell-off.

    The move underscores that even traditional safe-haven assets are vulnerable to sharp volatility. When positioning becomes one-sided, even fundamentally strong markets can reverse quickly. Investors are now reassessing exposure, with some stepping in to buy the dip while others remain on the sidelines.

    Top-Performing Commodities Over the Past Year

    The three best performers are silver (+273%), platinum (+178%), and gold (+89%). These mark the strongest year-over-year gains for the metals since 1979–1980.

    Can oil keep pace with the broader commodities rally?

    The Bloomberg Commodity Index has surged, but the gains are not being driven by energy. Instead, strength is coming from other commodities, highlighting an unusual source of the rally.

    Germany’s gold reserves are valued at nearly €500 billion.

    Germany’s gold reserves are now valued at €496 billion. The Bundesbank holds 3,352 tonnes in total, with more than 1,200 tonnes stored in New York and the rest kept in Frankfurt and London.

    The Swiss franc strengthens against the U.S. dollar.

    While market attention remains focused on the U.S. dollar and the yen, the Swiss franc has quietly climbed to its strongest level in more than a decade.

    Here’s why the move matters globally:

    The “safe-haven” appeal

    Investors are gravitating toward stability. With gold pushing above $5,000 an ounce and political uncertainty weighing on major economies, the Swiss franc has reasserted itself as a preferred refuge. The currency is up about 3% so far this year, building on a strong 14% gain last year.

    The Swiss National Bank’s policy challenge

    Such strength is a double-edged sword. While it helps keep inflation exceptionally low—currently around 0.1%—it also increases pressure on Switzerland’s export-driven economy. This leaves the Swiss National Bank facing a difficult decision:

    Cut interest rates? With rates already at 0%, a return to negative territory would be a step policymakers are reluctant to take.

    Here is a refined paraphrase that flows naturally from the previous section:

    Intervene? Direct action in currency markets risks accusations of manipulation and could spark diplomatic frictions.

    The global backdrop

    When the world’s primary reserve currency—the U.S. dollar—shows signs of instability, capital doesn’t disappear; it reallocates. Increasingly, those flows are moving toward perceived safe havens, with the Swiss franc emerging as a key beneficiary.

    In an era of heightened market volatility, genuine stability has become one of the rarest—and most valuable—assets.

    U.S. companies account for 20 of the world’s 25 largest market capitalizations.

    The remaining five companies are based outside the U.S., with one each from Europe, China, Taiwan, South Korea, and Saudi Arabia.

    Within the United States, California dominates with six of the world’s largest companies by market value. Texas and Washington follow with three each, while New York is home to two. Nebraska, Arkansas, Indiana, New Jersey, Idaho, and Colorado each host one of the top global firms.

    The endowment model faces mounting challenges.

    For years, the endowment model—heavily tilted toward private assets—was held up as the gold standard for long-term investment success. Its track record was so compelling that institutions across the globe rushed to replicate it.

    But every “secret sauce” loses its edge once it becomes common knowledge. As capital flooded into the same private markets, the once-distinct advantage began to erode.

    Today, the space is increasingly crowded, and the classic endowment model is showing signs of strain. At the same time, more traditional portfolios with greater exposure to public markets are quietly regaining relevance.

    The drivers are clear: too much money is chasing a limited pool of private opportunities, alpha in private equity is harder to extract, and liquid, public-market portfolios are proving more resilient than many expected.

    This raises a critical question: is the era of private-heavy allocations coming to an end, or merely pausing? It may be time to revisit the “Yale model,” with a sharper focus on less congested private strategies and new sources of return—especially if the strong 60/40 performance of the past one and three years turns out to be more cyclical than enduring.

    Sources: Charles-Henry Monchau

  • Yield Curve Steepening Points to Rising Long-Term Yields

    The S&P 500 closed the session up just over 50 basis points, in what felt like a familiar Monday pattern following Friday’s sharp drop in the 1-day VIX from 16.4 to 9.5. While the repetition can feel tiresome, the signal is clear: with volatility effectively reset, the index is once again at risk of stalling.

    In other developments, the quarterly refunding announcement came in stronger than anticipated based on prior guidance, with the second quarter standing out as the key surprise. The Treasury now expects to issue $109 billion, assuming a Treasury General Account balance of $900 billion. The increase in the TGA target from $850 billion was unsurprising given the scale of U.S. debt and is a point that has been repeatedly highlighted.

    Treasury yields were higher for much of the session following the stronger-than-expected ISM manufacturing data and extended those gains after the Treasury’s 3:00 p.m. ET announcement. Further clarity on the composition of the issuance is expected Wednesday morning.

    The 30-year minus 3-month spread has returned to the upper boundary of its bull-flag formation. A decisive break above the 1.25% level could trigger further upside momentum, with scope for a move toward the 1.7%–1.75% range.

    Absent a meaningful downside shock, the yield curve is likely to continue steepening, driven primarily by higher long-end yields.

    As highlighted yesterday, Palantir’s (NASDAQ: PLTR) key resistance level from an options-positioning perspective sits near $160, which is where the stock stalled in after-hours trading. If shares fail to break decisively above that level, a reversal of recent gains and a sharp pullback during today’s session would not be unexpected.

    Sources: Michael Kramer

  • Forex Seasonality: Can Seasonal Patterns Withstand Ongoing U.S. Dollar Weakness?

    The U.S. dollar weakened broadly in January, defying its usual seasonal strength — what lies ahead in February?

    Key Takeaways From February Forex Seasonality

    The U.S. dollar weakened broadly in January, defying its typical seasonal strength. While USD/JPY has historically underperformed in February, the relevance of seasonal averages may be diminished amid anticipated political developments on both sides of the Pacific. Meanwhile, tonight’s RBA meeting could be pivotal in determining whether AUD/USD retreats from three-year highs and aligns with its traditionally weak February seasonality.

    The start of a new month provides an opportunity to revisit the seasonal patterns that have shaped the forex market over more than five decades, following the dismantling of the Bretton Woods system in 1971 and the emergence of the modern foreign exchange regime.

    As always, these seasonal tendencies reflect historical averages, and individual months or years can deviate from long-term norms. As such, seasonality should be used alongside other forms of analysis when building a robust, long-term trading strategy, as past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

    Euro Forex Seasonality – EUR/USD Chart

    Historically, February has tended to be mildly bullish for EUR/USD, with the world’s most heavily traded currency pair posting an average gain of around 0.3% over the past 50-plus years. In January, EUR/USD defied its typical seasonal pattern, pushing higher to briefly touch a 4.5-year high near 1.21 before retreating to finish the month lower. For a U.S. dollar that has historically underperformed against the euro, the prospect of another government shutdown—potentially delaying key economic releases such as the NFP report—offers an encouraging backdrop.

    British Pound Forex Seasonality – GBP/USD Chart

    As shown in the chart above, GBP/USD has historically tended to decline in February, posting average returns of roughly -0.3% since 1971. Similar to the euro, sterling has advanced for three consecutive months and briefly surged to multi-year highs in January before retreating to finish back within last year’s trading range. While no changes to interest rates are anticipated, this week’s BOE and ECB meetings remain key event risks for European currencies.

    Japanese Yen Forex Seasonality – USD/JPY Chart

    February has historically been a mildly bearish month for USD/JPY, with the pair posting average declines of around 0.2% since the Bretton Woods era. The year began with a volatile but ultimately weaker January for USD/JPY, running counter to its usual seasonal pattern amid broad-based U.S. dollar softness. With idiosyncratic political factors exerting an outsized influence on markets on both sides of the Pacific, traders may want to be cautious about placing too much weight on USD/JPY’s seasonal history at present.

    Australian Dollar Forex Seasonality – AUD/USD Chart

    Shifting focus to Australia, AUD/USD has historically posted modest declines in February, averaging losses of around 0.2% since 1971. In January, the Australian dollar rallied sharply, breaking out of a three-year range on the back of strong domestic employment and inflation data. While the RBA is widely expected to deliver a rate hike shortly after publication, the central bank’s forward guidance for the remainder of the year may prove more influential for the currency than the rate decision itself.

    Canadian Dollar Forex Seasonality – USD/CAD Chart

    Finally, February has historically been a mildly supportive month for USD/CAD, delivering an average gain of around 0.2%. At the time of writing, the pair is holding above support near its 15-month low in the mid-1.3500s after briefly dipping below that level last month. However, USD/CAD remains below its key medium- and long-term moving averages clustered around the 1.3800 area, marking that zone as a critical hurdle if bulls are to regain control after a difficult three-week stretch.

    As always, we close by emphasizing that seasonal patterns are not definitive—even when they appear to be tracking well. This analysis should be paired with a thorough review of current fundamental and technical conditions across the major currency pairs.

    Sources: Matthew Weller

  • Bitcoin miners gain an open-source option with the launch of Tether’s MiningOS

    Stablecoin issuer Tether said its newly launched MiningOS is a modular, self-hosted software stack designed to support mining operations ranging from small home rigs to large, multi-site industrial facilities.

    What to know:

    • Tether has introduced MiningOS, an open-source, modular operating system for Bitcoin mining designed to streamline infrastructure management and lessen reliance on proprietary vendor software.
    • The self-hosted platform uses a peer-to-peer architecture, allowing miners to manage operations without centralized services and scale seamlessly from home rigs to multi-site industrial facilities.
    • Released under the Apache 2.0 license and built on Holepunch peer-to-peer protocols, MiningOS is hardware-agnostic and positions Tether alongside other advocates of open-source mining solutions, including Jack Dorsey’s Block.

    Tether has unveiled an open-source operating system for Bitcoin mining, positioning it as a tool to simplify infrastructure management while cutting dependence on closed, vendor-controlled software. On Monday, the stablecoin issuer announced the launch of MiningOS (MOS), a modular and scalable mining platform built to serve everyone from individual hobbyists to large institutional operators.

    The software aims to eliminate the “black box” nature of many existing mining setups, where hardware and monitoring systems are tightly locked into proprietary ecosystems. According to Tether, MiningOS prioritizes transparency, openness, and collaboration, and is designed with no vendor lock-in.

    MOS operates on a self-hosted architecture and uses an integrated peer-to-peer network to communicate with connected devices, enabling miners to manage operations without centralized services. Operators can tailor settings via a companion interface based on their scale and production needs. Tether CEO Paolo Ardoino described MOS as a “complete operational platform” capable of scaling from a single home rig to industrial-grade mining sites spread across multiple locations.

    Tether first outlined plans for an open-source mining operating system in June last year, saying new miners should be able to compete without relying on costly third-party software and management providers. The launch puts Tether alongside other crypto companies advocating open-source mining infrastructure, including Jack Dorsey’s Block.

    MiningOS is released under the Apache 2.0 license and is built on Holepunch peer-to-peer protocols, a design choice intended to keep the software stack independent of external third-party dependencies.

    Sources: Shaurya Malwa

  • Bernstein sees Bitcoin rebounding, with a potential bottom near $60,000

    • Bernstein notes that the ongoing pullback in the crypto market may be short-lived, with Bitcoin potentially starting a recovery in the first half of the year.
    • The firm’s analysts point to rising institutional inflows and shifting US policy dynamics as factors that could underpin what they describe as Bitcoin’s “most consequential cycle.”
    • Other market participants anticipate capital rotation away from “overcrowded” precious metals and into Bitcoin.

    Bitcoin may find a price floor near its previous cycle peak in the $60,000 area before staging a potential recovery in the first half of the year, according to analysts at Bernstein.

    Led by Gautam Chhugani, the analysts noted that the recent pullback in crypto prices follows a period of strong outperformance by gold relative to Bitcoin over the past year. They added that Bitcoin’s market capitalization compared to that of gold is nearing a two-year low, as central banks have significantly increased their gold purchases over the past year.

    Bernstein added that the recent market softness may represent a short-lived correction rather than the start of a prolonged bearish cycle, driven by several underlying factors.

    New catalysts help Bitcoin remain resilient despite price weakness

    The firm argued that robust institutional inflows into Bitcoin ETFs — which now hold roughly $165 billion in assets — alongside growing allocations from corporate treasuries, have helped the market move beyond the traditional boom-and-bust cycle.

    Bernstein also pointed to the lack of miner-led capitulation, a feature commonly seen in past market downturns. Instead, miners have increasingly diversified their revenue by expanding into AI-focused data center operations, reducing their reliance on Bitcoin price fluctuations.

    US policy developments were cited as another potential upside catalyst. Bernstein highlighted the creation of a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve funded by seized government BTC holdings, while potential changes in Federal Reserve leadership under nominee Kevin Warsh could further enhance Bitcoin’s standing. The analysts suggested that broader political alignment with the crypto sector could pave the way for Bitcoin to be viewed as a sovereign or reserve-like asset.

    “We do not expect a passive response from the U.S. government if digital asset markets continue to decline,” the analysts wrote.

    The latest assessment follows Bernstein’s projection last month that Bitcoin had bottomed near $80,000. At the time of publication, the world’s largest cryptocurrency was trading around $78,000, up 1.8% over the past few hours.

    Sources: Michael Ebiekutan

  • Hyperliquid (HYPE) Price Outlook: Token surges as HIP-4 proposal boosts prediction market

    • Hyperliquid rises 8% above its 200-day EMA on Tuesday, extending Monday’s nearly 9% advance.
    • The project unveiled plans to support outcome trading through the HIP-4 proposal.
    • Retail participation picks up as HYPE futures Open Interest posts double-digit gains to around $1.85 billion.

    Hyperliquid (HYPE) continued its recovery on Tuesday, rising 8% at the time of writing, fueled by optimism surrounding the HIP-4 proposal aimed at introducing outcome trading, including prediction markets and bounded options contracts. Growing retail engagement with the decentralized exchange and its native token is reflected in a more than 25% jump in HYPE futures Open Interest, signaling strong capital inflows. From a technical perspective, HYPE maintains a bullish bias, with strengthening buying pressure and improving trend momentum.

    Hyperliquid rekindles retail interest with prediction market plans

    Hyperliquid unveiled the HIP-4 proposal on Monday during early US trading, outlining plans to introduce prediction markets and fixed-range options contracts in an effort to compete with established platforms such as Polymarket and Kalshi. Retail participation in prediction markets has surged amid heightened volatility across global financial markets and geopolitical developments.

    The latest initiative marks an expansion of the Hyperliquid exchange beyond commodity trading, which was introduced under the HIP-3 proposal, and underscores the platform’s ongoing development aimed at better meeting trader demand.

    CoinGlass data shows that HYPE futures Open Interest (OI) jumped 27% over the last 24 hours to $1.84 billion, indicating significant inflows. Typically, such a large capital inflow in futures markets during an uptrend indicates an upside bias among traders.

    A massive wipeout of short sellers over the last 24 hours, evidenced by short liquidations of $31.69 million outpacing long liquidations of $1.58 million, corroborates the upside bias in HYPE futures. Additionally, the funding rate of 0.0046% signals a bullish interest among traders. 

    Technical outlook on Hyperliquid: Can HYPE reach the $50 level?

    Hyperliquid rebounded from the 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $30.61, posting gains of around 24% so far this week. At the time of writing on Tuesday, HYPE is up 14% on the day and has reclaimed the 200-day EMA at $32.89. The next upside hurdles are seen at $35.51 — aligned with the August 2 low — and the R1 Pivot Point at $37.07.

    The broader technical structure reinforces a strong recovery bias, with longer-term EMAs trending higher above shorter-term averages on the daily chart. A sustained close above $37.07 could pave the way toward the R2 Pivot Point at $43.15, followed by a key resistance zone near the $50.00 psychological mark.

    Momentum indicators also favor further upside. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) continues to strengthen, with histogram bars expanding above the zero line, signaling accelerating bullish momentum. Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 71, entering overbought territory and reflecting strong buying pressure.

    On the downside, a failure to sustain a move above the 200-day EMA at $32.89 would undermine the bullish outlook and could trigger a pullback toward the 100-day and 50-day EMAs, located at $30.62 and $28.03, respectively.

    Sources: Vishal Dixit

  • NZD/USD rebounds toward the mid-0.6000s as the USD softens and Fed–RBNZ policy divergence supports the pair

    • NZD/USD sees renewed buying interest on Tuesday as multiple factors weigh on the US Dollar.
    • Expectations for two additional Fed rate cuts in 2026, along with a positive risk environment, undermine demand for the greenback.
    • The Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s relatively hawkish stance supports the NZD and adds to the pair’s upside.

    The NZD/USD pair shows notable resilience below the 0.6000 psychological level and gathers strong upside momentum during Tuesday’s Asian session. Spot prices advance to the 0.6040–0.6045 zone in the past hour, snapping a two-day losing streak amid a modest pullback in the US Dollar.

    As markets digest Kevin Warsh’s nomination as the next Federal Reserve Chair, expectations that the Fed will deliver two additional rate cuts this year continue to cap the US Dollar’s rebound from a four-year low reached last week. At the same time, an upbeat risk environment weighs on the Greenback’s safe-haven appeal and supports demand for the risk-sensitive New Zealand Dollar.

    Investor sentiment was further buoyed after US President Donald Trump announced on Monday that the United States and India have finalized a trade agreement and will immediately move to reduce tariffs on each other’s goods. In addition, signs of easing tensions between the US and Iran over Tehran’s nuclear program have reduced fears of military escalation, reinforcing the positive market mood.

    Further support for the Kiwi comes from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s relatively hawkish outlook on the policy path. The RBNZ has signaled a potential end to its easing cycle after cutting rates to 2.25% in November, and now projects the cash rate at 2.20% in the first quarter of 2026 and 2.65% by the fourth quarter of 2027.

    Meanwhile, the release of the December 2025 Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) and the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report has been delayed due to a partial US government shutdown. As a result, commentary from key FOMC officials will be closely watched for cues on USD direction and could provide fresh impetus to NZD/USD, which appears poised to extend its two-week uptrend.

    Sources: Haresh Menghani

  • Gold edges higher as the USD weakens; gains capped amid easing geopolitical tensions

    • Gold sees modest buying interest on Tuesday as the USD takes a breather from its rebound off a four-year low.
    • Kevin Warsh’s nomination as the next Fed Chair may help limit USD downside and restrain gains in the precious metal.
    • Easing geopolitical and trade tensions could continue to cap further upside in XAU/USD.

    Gold (XAU/USD) extends Monday’s rebound from the $4,400 area — its lowest level since January 6 — and picks up modest follow-through during the Asian session on Tuesday. However, the metal struggles to sustain the upside momentum, paring part of its intraday gains and easing back toward the $4,856 zone amid a confluence of bearish factors.

    US President Donald Trump’s nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve Chair has removed a major source of uncertainty. In addition, a stronger-than-expected US ISM Manufacturing PMI released on Monday has helped the US Dollar hold onto its recent recovery from a four-year low, creating headwinds for gold prices.

    Further weighing on the precious metal are signs of easing US–Iran tensions over Iran’s nuclear program, the US–India trade agreement, and CME Group’s decision to increase margin requirements for precious metals futures. These factors, combined with a generally positive risk tone in global equity markets, call for caution among XAU/USD bulls.

    As a result, it may be prudent to wait for sustained follow-through buying before concluding that the recent sharp corrective decline from the $5,600 region — the record high reached last week — has fully played out. Looking ahead, the US JOLTS Job Openings data could provide fresh direction later in the North American session.

    Daily Digest Market Movers: Gold supported by a weaker USD; upside remains limited amid upbeat risk sentiment

    US President Donald Trump on Friday nominated Kevin Warsh to replace Jerome Powell as Federal Reserve Chair in May, subject to Senate confirmation. Given Warsh’s hawkish credentials, he is expected to remain alert to any rise in inflation expectations.

    Separately, CME Group announced over the weekend that margin requirements for precious metals futures will be raised from Monday’s market close. This triggered a second consecutive day of liquidation, pushing gold to a four-week low on Monday.

    On the data front, the Institute for Supply Management reported that US manufacturing activity expanded for the first time in a year. The Manufacturing PMI jumped to 52.6 in January from 47.9 previously, signaling a sharp rebound.

    Meanwhile, Trump said on Monday that the US and India have finalized a trade agreement and will immediately begin lowering tariffs on each other’s goods. In addition, expectations that the US and Iran will resume nuclear talks on Friday further lifted investor confidence.

    The US Dollar eases on Tuesday, retreating from an over one-week high reached the previous session, offering some support to gold during Asian trading. However, the aforementioned headwinds may continue to cap upside in the precious metal.

    Market participants will look ahead to the US JOLTS Job Openings report on Tuesday, followed by Wednesday’s US ADP private employment data and ISM Services PMI. These releases, along with Fed commentary, are likely to influence the USD and XAU/USD.

    Gold’s mixed technical picture calls for caution before aggressive directional positioning

    The commodity displayed resilience below its 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and rebounded from the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the July 2025–January 2026 rally on Monday. The rising slope of the SMA indicates that downside moves may continue to attract buying interest. In addition, XAU/USD remains above the 38.2% retracement level, located around the $4,645–4,650 region, which should provide immediate support. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently at 51.91 and trending higher, signaling stabilizing momentum.

    That said, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains below both the signal line and the zero line, maintaining a bearish bias. The expanding negative histogram suggests that downside momentum is gaining traction. On the upside, any further recovery could shift focus toward the 23.6% retracement at $4,995.94. Conversely, a failure to defend the initial support zone may leave the rebound exposed to deeper consolidation.

    Sources: Haresh Menghani

  • Taiwan president urges trade ties with democracies over China

    Taiwan should prioritise trade and economic cooperation with fellow democracies rather than China, President Lai Ching-te said on Tuesday, as his government outlined plans to deepen collaboration with the United States in areas such as artificial intelligence and critical minerals.

    Senior officials from Taiwan and the United States discussed cooperation on AI, technology and drones at a high-level forum held last week, with the U.S. State Department describing Taiwan as a “vital partner.” The two sides also signed statements on economic security cooperation and endorsed the Pax Silica Declaration, a U.S.-led initiative aimed at safeguarding AI and semiconductor supply chains amid growing competition with Beijing, which claims Taiwan as its territory.

    Speaking at a news conference following the U.S.-Taiwan Economic Prosperity Partnership Dialogue, Lai praised the outcome of the talks, saying Taiwan was on the right economic trajectory and ready to work with democratic partners to drive future growth.

    His remarks came as Kuomintang (KMT) deputy chairman Hsiao Hsu-tsen was in Beijing for a think-tank exchange with China’s Communist Party on issues including AI and tourism. Lai acknowledged the opposition’s differing views, contrasting slower economic growth under previous KMT administrations—which pursued closer trade ties with China—with stronger growth since his Democratic Progressive Party took office in 2016.

    Lai said Taiwan faced a clear choice between closer cooperation with the U.S., Japan and Europe, or renewed economic dependence on China. The KMT did not immediately respond, though Hsiao said in Beijing that cross-strait cooperation served both sides’ interests.

    China has refused to engage with Lai, branding him a separatist, a charge he rejects, saying Taiwan’s future can only be decided by its people. Lai reiterated his willingness to hold talks with Beijing on the basis of equality and mutual respect.

    Sources: Reuters

  • RBA raises rates by 25 bps as expected, flags persistent inflation risks

    The Reserve Bank of Australia raised its policy rate by 25 basis points on Tuesday, in line with expectations, and cautioned that inflation is likely to stay above target in the months ahead.

    The unanimous decision lifted the cash rate target to 3.85% from 3.65%, following a renewed uptick in inflation late last year that pushed underlying price pressures back above the RBA’s 2%–3% target range.

    The central bank said private demand remained resilient and domestic capacity constraints persisted, factors it expects will keep inflation elevated for some time. While some of the recent rise in inflation reflects temporary influences, the RBA noted that demand has been expanding faster than anticipated, capacity pressures are stronger than previously assessed, and labour market conditions remain tight.

    The RBA stopped short of signalling further rate increases, instead reaffirming its commitment to maintaining price stability and full employment, and said it would take whatever action it deems necessary to achieve those objectives.

    Sources: Ambar Warrick