Gold prices jumped to a record near $5,600 per ounce on Thursday, extending recent gains after reports that U.S. President Donald Trump was weighing a new strike on Iran. Silver also climbed to a record above $119 per ounce, supported by strong safe-haven demand.
Metal prices continued to climb with little sign of easing, driven by escalating global geopolitical tensions that boosted demand for physical assets and traditional safe havens. Additional support came from a weaker U.S. dollar and uncertainty surrounding U.S. policy, while copper prices also reached a new all-time high on Thursday.
Spot gold jumped more than 2% to a record $5,595.41 per ounce, and April gold futures peaked at $5,625.89 per ounce. Although prices later retreated from these highs, gold was still trading comfortably above $5,500 per ounce by 00:45 ET (05:45 GMT).
Spot silver also rose sharply, gaining over 1% to a record $119.4280 per ounce.
“Gold is no longer viewed solely as a hedge against crises or inflation,” OCBC analysts noted. “It is increasingly seen as a neutral, dependable store of value that also offers diversification across a broad range of macroeconomic environments.”
They added that this shift in perception helps explain why recent pullbacks have been limited and well-supported. OCBC has recently raised its 2026 gold price forecast to $5,600 per ounce.
Trump considering major strike on Iran
Former President Donald Trump is reportedly weighing a “major new strike” against Iran after talks over Tehran’s nuclear program and missile development broke down, CNN reported Wednesday night.
The report follows Trump’s decision to deploy multiple U.S. naval vessels to the Middle East, alongside earlier threats of military action that he framed as backing nationwide protests in Iran.
Earlier on Wednesday, Trump posted on social media urging Iran to reach a “fair and equitable” agreement with Washington and to abandon its nuclear ambitions. He also warned that any future U.S. strike would be significantly more severe than the mid-2025 attack, when American forces targeted Iran’s key nuclear facilities.
According to CNN, Trump is now considering airstrikes aimed at Iranian political leaders and security officials accused of killing protesters, as well as additional attacks on nuclear sites.
Any further U.S. military action could sharply escalate tensions in the Middle East, with Iran having pledged strong retaliation against such moves.
U.S.-centric geopolitical risks have continued to support gold and other safe-haven assets, particularly after Washington launched a military incursion in Venezuela earlier this month. Trump’s demands related to Greenland also added to these tensions, though his rhetoric on that issue has eased in recent weeks.
Meanwhile, gold prices showed little reaction to the U.S. Federal Reserve’s widely expected decision to keep interest rates unchanged, as the central bank also offered an optimistic assessment of the U.S. economic outlook.
However, Chair Jerome Powell refrained from responding to questions regarding the Federal Reserve’s independence amid an ongoing Department of Justice investigation.
Platinum gains ground as copper reaches a record high
Strength in gold prices spilled over into the wider metals complex, supported by a weaker dollar and growing investor demand for safe-haven, physical assets viewed as neutral stores of value.
Spot platinum climbed 2.6% to $2,775.73 per ounce, staying near recent highs. The precious metal remained close to record levels reached earlier this month, after largely moving in step with gold through late 2025.
Copper also joined the broader metals rally, with benchmark futures on the London Metal Exchange surging more than 6% to a record $14,123.95 per tonne.
Prices were further lifted by reports pointing to additional policy support for China’s struggling property sector. As the world’s largest copper importer, China’s real estate industry represents a significant share of global copper demand.
Gold prices climbed toward a fresh record near $5,220 during Asian trading on Wednesday, extending gains on a weaker U.S. dollar, persistent geopolitical tensions and ongoing economic uncertainty. Investors are now awaiting the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision later in the day for further direction.
Fundamental Analysis Overview
Expectations of further policy easing by the U.S. Federal Reserve, persistent selling pressure on the U.S. dollar, continued central bank purchases, and record inflows into exchange-traded funds have provided strong support for gold prices.
Although U.S. President Donald Trump stepped back from a tariff threat after saying a framework agreement had been reached on a future Greenland deal with NATO, the brief episode raised concerns about the reliability of global alliances. These doubts, combined with the prolonged Russia–Ukraine conflict, continue to fuel safe-haven demand for gold. Russia launched another large-scale drone and missile assault on Ukraine during the second day of U.S.-mediated peace talks in Abu Dhabi over the weekend, which concluded without an agreement. While trilateral discussions are set to resume on February 1, expectations for a breakthrough in the nearly four-year conflict remain low, keeping geopolitical risks elevated.
Further weighing on market sentiment, Trump warned on Saturday that the U.S. could impose a 100% tariff on Canada should it proceed with a trade agreement with China. The possibility of renewed tensions over Greenland and other unpredictable policy moves from the Trump administration has undermined confidence in the U.S. dollar. As a result, the Dollar Index (DXY) has fallen to its lowest level since September 2025, pressured further by market expectations that the Fed could cut rates twice more in 2025. This environment continues to favor non-yielding assets such as gold, particularly as attention turns to the two-day FOMC meeting that began on Tuesday.
The Federal Reserve is set to announce its policy decision on Wednesday and is widely expected to keep interest rates unchanged. As such, investor focus will center on the accompanying statement and Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s press conference for signals on the future policy path. Any guidance on the timing and pace of potential rate cuts will be critical in shaping near-term dollar movements and determining gold’s next directional move. In the shorter term, U.S. Durable Goods Orders data due later Monday could generate trading opportunities during the North American session.
On the demand side, the People’s Bank of China extended its gold-buying streak for a fourteenth consecutive month in December. Other emerging market central banks, including those of Poland, India, and Brazil, were also active buyers in late 2025 and early 2026. Meanwhile, global investment demand through gold ETFs rose 25% in 2025, with total holdings increasing to 4,025.4 tonnes from 3,224.2 tonnes a year earlier. Assets under management climbed to $558.9 billion, reinforcing gold’s bullish case and supporting expectations for a continuation of the well-established uptrend amid a favorable fundamental backdrop.
XAU/USD Technical Outlook
The rising channel originating from $4,464.07 continues to support the broader uptrend, with upside currently constrained near $5,101.21. The MACD remains in positive territory, although the histogram is starting to narrow, indicating fading momentum even as the MACD line stays above the signal line. Meanwhile, the RSI is elevated around 78, signaling overbought conditions that may limit near-term gains and favor consolidation near the upper boundary of the channel.
Should prices fail to break decisively above the channel top, a corrective move toward support at $4,934.92 could develop. Further contraction in the MACD histogram would strengthen the case for a pullback, while a downturn in the RSI from overbought levels would point to mean reversion within the channel. On the other hand, if bullish momentum persists and MACD remains supportive, the prevailing uptrend would stay intact, maintaining the upside bias defined by the ascending channel.
Oil prices climbed in Asian trading on Wednesday, extending the previous session’s gains after severe cold weather disrupted U.S. production, signaling tighter supply conditions.
Crude was also supported by a weaker dollar, which slid to near a four-year low this week, while markets continued to monitor heightened tensions between the United States and Iran following comments from President Donald Trump that a second armada was heading to the Middle East.
Brent futures for March edged up 0.1% to $67.66 a barrel, hovering near a four-month high, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures rose 0.2% to $62.53 a barrel by 20:49 ET (01:49 GMT).
Oil prices jump as U.S. snowstorm disrupts supply
Oil’s advance this week was largely fueled by a powerful winter storm sweeping across the United States, which disrupted crude output in several producing regions.
Exports from the U.S. Gulf Coast were also brought to a standstill, as heavy snowfall and sub-zero temperatures blanketed large parts of the country. According to Reuters estimates, roughly 2 million barrels per day of production were affected over the weekend.
These supply interruptions have prompted traders to brace for sharp drawdowns in U.S. crude inventories in the weeks ahead, signaling tighter supply conditions in the world’s largest oil-consuming market.
API data points to declining U.S. inventories
Figures from the American Petroleum Institute released late Tuesday showed an unexpected decline in U.S. crude inventories last week. Stockpiles fell by roughly 250,000 barrels, according to the API, defying expectations for a 1.45 million-barrel build.
The API report often foreshadows a similar trend in the official inventory data, which is scheduled for release later on Wednesday.
Oil gains on softer dollar ahead of Fed rate call
A weaker dollar also lent support to oil prices, as declines in the greenback tend to boost demand for commodities priced in the U.S. currency.
The dollar index fell to near a four-year low on Tuesday, weighed down by investor concerns over U.S. economic uncertainty, the impending Federal Reserve interest rate decision, and intermittent trade and geopolitical policy moves under President Donald Trump.
The Fed is broadly expected to keep interest rates unchanged at the end of its meeting later in the day, with markets focused on signals from Chair Jerome Powell regarding the policy outlook for the year ahead.
Gold prices climbed to a record above $5,200 an ounce on Wednesday, supported by robust safe-haven demand and persistent weakness in the U.S. dollar. Other precious metals also stayed firm, with silver and platinum trading near recent record highs.
Spot gold edged lower to $5,179.41 an ounce by 19:55 ET (00:55 GMT) after briefly touching a record peak of $5,202.06. Meanwhile, April gold futures jumped 1.8% to $5,215.46 an ounce.
Safe-haven demand remained strong after U.S. President Donald Trump said a second armada was heading toward Iran, while expressing hope that Tehran would agree to a deal with Washington.
Gold’s rally this year has been largely driven by uncertainty surrounding U.S. policy, with heightened geopolitical tensions fueled by developments in Venezuela and a dispute over Greenland.
A weaker dollar also provided support to gold and broader metals markets, as investor concerns grew over elevated fiscal spending and the Federal Reserve’s independence under the Trump administration. Policy uncertainty pushed the dollar to multi-year lows earlier this week.
Trump said on Tuesday that he was close to naming a successor to Fed Chair Jerome Powell, adding that interest rates would decline under new leadership. Ongoing friction between the White House and the Federal Reserve has further underpinned gold prices, as markets remain wary of political pressure on the central bank.
Elsewhere in metals markets, spot silver gained 1.2% to $113.4325 an ounce, while spot platinum climbed 0.6% to $2,669.61. Both were trading near record levels.
OCBC has raised its end-2026 gold price target to $5,600 per ounce from $4,800, citing recent sharp gains and enduring structural demand rather than a shift in its core market view. Gold has climbed about 17% so far in 2026 and has stayed elevated despite periodic pullbacks.
The bank said prices are now supported less by isolated event risks and more by a prolonged environment of uncertainty that is driving diversification into non-sovereign assets. OCBC highlighted a persistent pricing premium that cannot be fully accounted for by traditional factors such as yields, the US dollar, ETF flows, volatility, or policy uncertainty. This premium reflects a geopolitical and uncertainty component increasingly embedded in gold prices, fueled by ongoing geopolitical tensions, policy unpredictability, and concerns over confidence in the dollar. OCBC added that the broader uptrend remains intact, underpinned by structural geopolitical risks, accommodative monetary conditions, and continued support from official sector and ETF demand.
Gold has climbed beyond $5,100, underpinned by a softer US dollar and strong, persistent structural demand. Solid technical momentum and ongoing global policy uncertainty continue to favor hard assets such as gold and silver. While the focus on potential FX intervention raises the risk of near-term profit-taking, the broader rally still shows little sign of losing steam.
Gold surged to a fresh record of $5,100 an ounce, while silver extended its rally with another 5% jump to around $110. The latest advance has been fueled by persistent US dollar weakness, signs of yen intervention, and broader unease over fiat currencies—long a structural pillar of gold’s appeal. Ongoing global policy uncertainty is also channeling capital into hard assets.
With such an extensive list of supportive factors, even the most bullish investors may question how long the rally can continue without at least a pause, especially given how stretched valuations have become. The temptation for profit-taking at these levels is clear. Yet prices continue to refuse to roll over, and that resilience is becoming the key narrative. Despite a fading geopolitical risk premium and last week’s tariff U-turn by Trump—which, in theory, should have dampened safe-haven demand—gold barely reacted and instead pushed even higher, underscoring the strength of the current trend.
US dollar remains under pressure amid easing rate expectations and declining investor confidence.
At first glance, the explanation seems simple: the US dollar has weakened, giving gold a natural boost. A softer greenback makes gold more affordable for non-US buyers, and that effect is clearly visible. However, this move goes beyond a straightforward FX translation. Gold prices have also been rising in euro and sterling terms, pointing to broader, more structural demand rather than just currency-driven gains.
That said, dollar weakness is still playing an important role. The greenback has slid amid recent geopolitical fractures, and suspected Japanese intervention in USD/JPY has added further pressure. Markets are increasingly convinced that Japanese authorities stepped in when USD/JPY pushed beyond 159. What really caught investors’ attention were reports that the Federal Reserve was “rate-checking” banks in New York around the London close. The idea that this may have been more than unilateral action by Tokyo—potentially involving coordination with Washington—is significant, as joint Japan–US intervention would send a far stronger signal than Japan acting alone.
Bullish momentum remains firmly intact, with strong follow-through buying and little sign of exhaustion despite overextended conditions.
Momentum is clearly carrying much of the move. The uptrend remains firmly intact, with trend-following behavior dominating as traders continue to buy dips rather than sell into strength. As long as that pattern persists, it is difficult to make a convincing case against further near-term gains.
From a psychological standpoint, the $5,000 threshold has now been decisively cleared. It may have seemed ambitious only a few sessions ago—much like $4,000 did not long before—but strong technical momentum, a weakening US dollar narrative, and rising anxiety in global bond markets have made these once-distant milestones appear increasingly attainable.
That said, macro fundamentals still deserve attention. Real yields, growth expectations, and inflation dynamics have not vanished, and eventually they will reassert influence. When they do, gold may find it harder to sustain these elevated levels without a renewed or deeper systemic risk backdrop.
Key Levels to Monitor
For now, the bias remains to the upside. The next resistance target is near $5,182, corresponding to the 261.8% Fibonacci extension of the major October downswing, with the $5,200 psychological level just above. On the downside, multiple support zones are in focus, starting with $5,000. Other round-number levels such as $4,900 and $4,800 may also provide support, while more significant longer-term support is seen around $4,500–$4,550.
As long as the dollar stays weak, central banks continue to be net buyers of gold, and governments openly signal a willingness to intervene in FX markets, it is difficult to identify a catalyst that would meaningfully reverse gold’s advance at this stage, aside from bouts of profit-taking.
Oil prices edged lower in Asian trading on Tuesday as markets focused on rising US-Iran tensions, while also monitoring potential supply disruptions caused by extreme winter weather in the United States.
Crude had gained in recent sessions on fears that tensions with Iran could disrupt supply, while a severe snowstorm in the US was estimated to have shut in up to 2 million barrels of oil production over the weekend.
However, expectations of tighter supply were tempered after Kazakhstan signaled it would resume production at the Tengiz oil field, its largest producing asset.
Brent crude futures for March slipped 0.6% to $65.22 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate futures fell 0.5% to $60.33 a barrel by 21:20 ET (02:20 GMT).
Iran tensions, US weather disruptions in focus
A US aircraft carrier and several destroyers were seen arriving in the Middle East over the weekend. President Donald Trump said last week that an “armada” was headed toward Iran, though he expressed hope it would not be used.
The deployment followed Trump’s warnings to Iran over the killing of protesters during recent nationwide demonstrations, although unrest has eased in recent weeks and his rhetoric toward Tehran has softened.
Meanwhile, a severe snowstorm in the US caused widespread disruptions, halting oil production and straining the power grid, with markets closely watching whether prolonged outages could further tighten crude supplies.
Kazakhstan signals plans to resume production at the Tengiz oil field.
Kazakhstan said on Monday it will resume output at the Tengiz oil field after a fire and power outage halted production. However, Reuters reported that initial volumes are expected to be limited, as the country has yet to lift a force majeure on CPC Blend exports.
Kazakhstan is the world’s 12th-largest oil producer and a member of OPEC and its allies. The group is expected to keep production levels unchanged at its February 1 meeting, after steadily increasing output through 2025 before announcing a pause late last year to curb prolonged weakness in oil prices.
Wednesday brings the FOMC meeting and Chair Powell’s press conference, and it wouldn’t be surprising if President Trump chose that moment—ideally around 2:30 p.m. ET—to announce his pick for the next Fed chair. Such timing would dominate headlines, catch financial media off guard, and inject maximum uncertainty into markets.
That said, the Fed is not expected to cut rates at this meeting, which should keep the event relatively uneventful. In the bigger picture, what the Fed does between now and May may prove less important, particularly if a new chair is appointed and moves quickly toward easing.
Markets appear to be dialing back expectations for aggressive rate cuts. Current pricing suggests the fed funds rate settles near 3.25% by December, with little additional easing beyond that. To meaningfully shift those expectations, the nominee would likely need to be notably dovish—something markets already anticipate, given the widespread assumption that Trump will select a policy-leaning accommodator.
As a result, the risk of a breakout in the 2-year Treasury yield appears increasingly credible, with initial resistance near 3.62%. Beyond that, a move back toward the 4% level cannot be ruled out. From a technical perspective, the setup supports this view: the 2-year yield has formed multiple bottoms in recent months, and the RSI has begun to turn higher, signaling building upside momentum.
The direction of the 2-year yield may ultimately be more closely linked to oil prices. With inflation still hovering near 3% and crude having fallen to around $60 from highs in the $120s, the message is clear: a rebound in oil prices could quickly reignite inflation pressures. That dynamic likely explains why the price action in oil and the 2-year yield charts has begun to look strikingly similar.
The Bank of Japan once again chose to kick the can down the road, leaving rates unchanged and, in my view, offering little in the way of a clear policy roadmap. The yen’s strength on Friday appeared to be driven solely by reports of a possible “rate check” by the New York Fed on behalf of the U.S. Treasury—widely interpreted as a warning signal that currency intervention could be imminent. Perhaps the strategy is to keep markets stable until after the snap election in February. It’s hard to say, but it should be telling to see how markets react once Japan reopens on Monday.
The Korean won also strengthened notably against the U.S. dollar on Friday. In recent weeks, there has been growing chatter that the KRW had become excessively weak, so it’s likely the currency took the developments around the yen as a warning signal and moved to reprice accordingly.
The Korean won likely matters more than many investors realize, given the sizable exposure South Korean investors have built up in U.S. equities. That dynamic is probably one of the reasons the KRW has weakened so significantly in the first place—buying U.S. stocks requires selling won for dollars.
If the KRW begins to strengthen from here, it could start to put pressure on that trade. For investors who are unhedged on the currency side, a stronger won increases the risk of FX-related losses on their U.S. equity holdings, potentially prompting position adjustments.
Of course, this week also brings major earnings reports from Microsoft, Apple, Tesla, and Meta. From what I can see, all four stocks are currently sitting in positive gamma with positive delta positioning. Implied volatility typically builds into earnings because of the event risk, which sets up a familiar dynamic: unless a company delivers truly blowout results, the reaction can easily turn into a sell-the-news move. Once earnings are released, implied volatility collapses and hedges are unwound as delta decays, potentially putting pressure on the shares.
Gold’s record-setting bull market has resumed its charge—but under a new set of drivers. Aggressive buying from China has increasingly taken over from gold’s traditional engines of demand, namely U.S.-based gold ETFs and futures traders. With American participation fading, gold’s ability to hold lofty levels now rests heavily on sustained Chinese demand. This shift has helped gold remain elevated, postponing the corrective phase typically required to rebalance overheated markets.
Between late July and mid-October 2025, gold surged an extraordinary 32.9% in just 2.7 months. During that stretch, the metal logged 24 record closes—roughly three-sevenths of all trading days—while its strongest gains were spread relatively evenly across the calendar. At the time, U.S. investors were aggressively piling into gold, providing powerful upside momentum.
That enthusiasm was clearly reflected in holdings of the world’s largest gold ETFs—SPDR Gold Shares (GLD), iShares Gold Trust (IAU), and SPDR Gold MiniShares (GLDM). According to the World Gold Council’s Q3’25 data, these three vehicles together accounted for more than three-sevenths of all gold held by global ETFs. During the rally, their combined bullion holdings jumped 10.9%, or 169.4 metric tons, helping propel gold to around $4,350 by mid-October and pushing technical conditions to extreme levels.
At its peak, gold was trading 33% above its 200-day moving average—ranking among the most overbought readings since 1981. The bull market had delivered gains of 139.1% over 24.5 months without a single correction exceeding 10%, making it the largest cyclical gold bull ever in U.S. dollar terms since the gold standard was abandoned in 1971. Historically, such excesses have almost always been followed by sharp pullbacks.
A correction initially appeared to be unfolding, with gold dropping 9.5% into early November—its steepest decline of the cycle and close to formal correction territory. Then the pattern abruptly changed.
Since mid-October, gold has climbed another 10.9% over roughly three months, yet this time without meaningful participation from U.S. investors. ETF holdings at GLD, IAU, and GLDM rose just 2.2% (37.8 tons), less than one-quarter of the prior buildup—and all of that increase occurred only in the past month. Those holdings didn’t even recover their mid-October peak until mid-December, shortly before gold began printing fresh record highs.
Gold’s ability to avoid a deeper correction despite some of the most extreme overbought conditions in decades raised questions. Normally, such excesses demand a reset in sentiment and positioning. Since U.S. investors were not driving the rebound, another source of demand had to be absorbing supply.
Clues emerged in the timing of gold’s strongest advances. Since mid-October, nearly all of gold’s gains have occurred on Mondays—a striking anomaly given that Mondays have historically been gold’s weakest trading day. Major upside moves were logged on November 10, November 24, December 22, January 5, January 12, and again this week following a Monday market holiday. Collectively, these few sessions accounted for the vast majority of gold’s rally since October.
Closer inspection revealed that most of these gains occurred overnight during Asian trading hours—well before European or U.S. markets opened. In other words, Chinese traders were responsible for driving price action when the rest of the world was largely inactive. These sessions effectively became “China Mondays,” periods when Chinese market flows dominated global pricing due to minimal competing liquidity.
Because China is uniquely active during the late Sunday-to-early Monday window, its influence on gold prices during that time is disproportionate. On other weekdays, extended trading hours in Western markets dilute that impact. The clustering of gains during these windows strongly suggests that China has become the primary marginal buyer supporting gold at record levels.
Until U.S. investors re-engage meaningfully, gold’s resilience at these heights will depend largely on whether Chinese demand remains strong enough to keep the rally alive.
China’s influence on Sunday-night trading is further magnified by the weekend effect. Weekends represent the longest stretch when traders are unable to react to new, market-moving developments. As a result, many participants square positions and shut down algorithmic trading systems ahead of the weekend. Meanwhile, algorithms that remain active into early Monday often have a backlog of news to process, which can intensify price moves during thin overnight liquidity. This dynamic can significantly amplify China-driven buying in gold.
Before delving further into China’s growing dominance in the gold market, it’s useful to look at how dramatically conditions shifted around gold’s mid-October peak. In the months leading up to that high, heavy share buying in GLD, IAU, and GLDM was the primary force behind gold’s explosive rally. Since then, demand from U.S. equity investors has been largely muted. Even so, gold has managed to surge back into extreme overbought territory—an outcome that underscores how unusual and China-dependent this phase of the rally has become.
China’s dominance during Sunday-night trading is reinforced by the structure of weekends themselves. Weekends are the longest periods when traders cannot respond to new, market-moving information. As a result, many participants flatten positions and shut down algorithmic systems before markets reopen. Meanwhile, algorithms that remain active into early Monday often need to process a backlog of news, which can magnify price movements in thin overnight liquidity. This dynamic amplifies China-driven gold buying when global participation is minimal.
Before exploring China’s growing grip on gold prices further, it helps to contrast the months before and after gold’s mid-October peak. In the run-up to that high, aggressive share buying in GLD, IAU, and GLDM was the dominant force behind gold’s explosive advance. Since then, U.S. stock investor demand has been largely muted—yet gold has still surged back into extreme overbought territory, underscoring how unusual and externally driven this rally has become.
While American equity investors were slow to chase this China-led surge until recently, U.S. gold-futures speculators jumped in aggressively. Futures positioning is reported weekly, and in late November—just after gold’s second “China Monday” surge—total speculative long positions stood at 307,000 contracts. Over the following seven weeks, that figure ballooned. By the January 13 Commitments of Traders report, total spec longs had risen to 362,400 contracts—an increase equivalent to roughly 172 metric tons of gold. That dwarfed the roughly 52-ton increase in GLD, IAU, and GLDM holdings over the same period, meaning futures traders significantly amplified China-driven momentum.
However, futures-driven buying power is limited and quickly exhausted. Gold futures allow extreme leverage—often 20x to 25x—which dramatically restricts the pool of participants willing to assume such risk. Assessing speculative positioning within its historical range provides insight into whether traders are more likely to add exposure or begin selling.
As of mid-January, speculative long positions were already 58% into their bull-market range, while shorts were just 6% in. The most bullish setup occurs when longs are near the bottom of their range and shorts are near the top, leaving ample room for buying. The current configuration is far closer to the opposite—suggesting diminishing upside fuel from U.S. speculators.
That leaves gold’s ability to continue defying a necessary corrective phase largely dependent on China. Unfortunately, reliable, consistent data on Chinese gold markets is scarce, especially in English. Even if such data were available, it would require extensive historical analysis to establish meaningful relationships with price behavior.
Still, anecdotal evidence is abundant. Major financial publications regularly report frenzied gold buying in China. Silver’s recent parabolic surge—largely driven by Chinese demand—appears to have spilled over into gold, fueling enthusiasm both domestically and globally. Without transparent data, Western analysts are left guessing how long this demand can persist.
Cultural factors may offer some clues. In Western markets, gold had long been dismissed as outdated, resulting in minimal portfolio allocations for years. In contrast, gold has always held deep cultural significance in China. Chinese investors therefore began this cycle with far greater enthusiasm, potentially making them more willing to buy aggressively and stay invested longer.
Capital controls also play a role. Chinese investors have limited avenues to diversify wealth outside the domestic financial system, while gold and silver offer a rare escape from policy risk. Additionally, Chinese culture places a stronger emphasis on wealth accumulation and status—traits that can fuel speculative behavior.
These dynamics make China uniquely susceptible to a speculative gold mania. Evidence increasingly suggests one is underway, reinforced by the repeated “China Monday” surges. Yet Chinese markets remain opaque. Financial transparency is limited, economic data series have been quietly discontinued when trends turn unfavorable, and even official gold reserve figures from the People’s Bank of China are widely viewed with skepticism.
For example, China reported identical gold reserves for more than six years before suddenly announcing a 57% jump in a single month—an implausible scenario. Many analysts believe China has accumulated far more gold than officially disclosed for years. If official reserve data lacks credibility, confidence in broader market transparency is equally questionable.
That uncertainty is unsettling. History shows that speculative manias eventually end in sharp, symmetrical collapses once buying power is exhausted. Whether China’s gold frenzy lasts months—or reverses abruptly—is unknowable.
What is clear is that gold’s recent breakout has been almost entirely driven during Chinese trading hours. Since December 19, gold has climbed roughly $487, yet nearly all of those gains occurred on just four “China Mondays.” This concentration of upside is highly abnormal and inherently risky.
Chinese markets have repeatedly demonstrated how quickly sentiment can flip once fear takes hold. Any government action—such as curbing speculative activity—could trigger rapid selling. Without strong participation from U.S. investors or futures traders to absorb that supply, gold could fall sharply.
In short, Chinese trading has seized control of the gold market. After peaking at extreme overbought levels in mid-October, gold required a corrective reset. That process was prematurely halted by surging Chinese demand. With U.S. participation limited and futures buying power fading, gold’s current position is precarious. If Chinese enthusiasm wanes or policy shifts intervene, a forced and potentially violent rebalancing could follow.
Gold vaulted above the psychological $5,000-per-ounce threshold on Monday, building on last week’s explosive rally as investors flocked to the traditional safe haven amid escalating geopolitical risks.
Spot gold climbed 1.1% to a fresh all-time high of $5,035.83 per ounce by 18:52 ET (00:52 GMT), while U.S. gold futures also advanced 1.1% to a record $5,074.71 per ounce.
The precious metal surged more than 8% last week, repeatedly setting new highs, and is now up nearly 17% year-to-date.
The broader precious metals complex also strengthened. Silver jumped over 2% to a record $106.56 per ounce, while platinum edged higher to a new peak of $2,798.46 per ounce.
Gold has climbed sharply since the beginning of the year, supported by geopolitical tensions, expectations of looser U.S. monetary policy later in 2026, and continued buying from central banks and investors hedging against market volatility.
A key catalyst behind gold’s sharp rally this month has been mounting friction between the United States and its NATO partners over Greenland, a dispute that has rattled global markets.
President Trump’s comments on U.S. strategic ambitions in the Arctic have further strained transatlantic ties, fueling fears of wider diplomatic and economic repercussions.
Adding to those geopolitical pressures, Trump escalated trade tensions with Canada over the weekend, warning of a 100% tariff on Canadian imports should Ottawa move forward with a trade agreement with China.
Trump said on his social media platform that Canada could serve as a “drop-off port” for Chinese goods entering the United States, warning that Beijing would “eat Canada alive” if the agreement proceeds.
Fed rate decision in focus
Gold has also found support from expectations around U.S. monetary policy. The Federal Reserve is set to wrap up its policy meeting on Wednesday, with markets broadly expecting officials to leave interest rates unchanged.
Although a hold decision is largely priced in, investors will closely examine the Fed’s statement and remarks from Chair Jerome Powell for signals on the timing and pace of potential rate cuts later this year.
Gold typically benefits from lower interest rates, which reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets.
“Both the data and Chair Powell’s strong defence of central bank independence suggest there is little chance of a Fed rate cut on January 28,” ING analysts said in a note.
“Attention will instead turn to President Trump’s forthcoming nomination for the next Fed chair, upcoming economic data, and whether that nominee can steer the committee toward additional rate cuts,” they added.
Gold prices remain firmly in an uptrend and are poised to test the key $5,000 per troy ounce level on Friday. The precious metal’s strong rally accelerates amid mounting US Dollar weakness and mixed US Treasury yields across the curve.
Fundamental Analysis Overview
Expectations of additional monetary easing by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) continue to support demand for the non-yielding yellow metal, even as geopolitical risks have eased following US President Donald Trump’s reversal on Greenland. The bullish momentum also appears largely undeterred by extremely overbought short-term technical conditions, reinforcing the view that Gold’s path of least resistance remains upward.
On Wednesday, Trump announced the cancellation of planned tariffs on European allies related to US control over Greenland, after reaching a preliminary framework with NATO leaders on future Arctic security cooperation. He also dismissed the possibility of taking Greenland by force, encouraging risk appetite. However, the positive market response proved short-lived, as dovish Fed expectations dominated, outweighing Thursday’s US economic data and pushing the US Dollar (USD) back toward its lowest level since January 6, last seen earlier this week.
Data from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis showed that final third-quarter GDP growth came in at 4.4%, marginally above the previous estimate of 4.3% and notably stronger than the 3.8% expansion recorded in the prior quarter. Meanwhile, the Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index — the Fed’s preferred inflation measure — rose 2.8% year-on-year in November, up from 2.7%, while the monthly increase remained steady at 0.2%.
Further weighing on the USD, the US Department of Labor reported that initial jobless claims edged up by 1,000 to 200,000 for the week ending January 17, below market expectations of 212,000. Despite the better-than-expected figure, the data failed to offer meaningful support to the greenback amid the broader de-dollarization trend. Investors now turn their attention to upcoming flash PMI releases for insight into global economic conditions, which could influence risk sentiment and shape Gold’s trajectory as it heads toward solid weekly gains.
XAU/USD Technical Analysis
The broader uptrend remains supported by an ascending channel originating from $3,805.69, with XAU/USD now having decisively broken above the channel’s upper boundary around $4,742.80. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains firmly above the zero line and continues to trend higher, indicating strengthening bullish momentum. Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 81.25, deep in overbought territory, which may limit immediate upside as momentum becomes stretched.
That said, a sustained hold above the former channel ceiling opens the door for a continuation of the rally toward new highs. On the downside, initial support is seen near the ascending channel’s lower boundary at $4,437.79 should prices consolidate. A flattening MACD would point to fading upside momentum at elevated levels, while a pullback in RSI toward the 70 mark would help ease overbought conditions and reinforce trend stability. A failure to defend the breakout zone could trigger a move back into the previous range, whereas continued momentum would keep bullish control intact.
Gold prices edged lower in Asian trading on Thursday after touching a record high near $4,900 an ounce in the prior session, as U.S. President Donald Trump’s retreat from tariff threats linked to Greenland tensions dampened safe-haven demand. Spot gold declined 0.7% to $4,799.55 an ounce by 20:36 ET (01:36 GMT), after hitting a record peak of $4,888.1 an ounce a session earlier. March U.S. gold futures also slipped 0.8% to $4,801.75 an ounce.
Gold jumped on Wednesday as geopolitical tensions intensified following a transatlantic dispute over Greenland and threats of tariffs on European imports. The rally earlier this week lifted bullion close to the psychological $5,000 level, with investors seeking a safe haven amid heightened global uncertainty.
Prices later pulled back after President Trump, speaking at the World Economic Forum in Davos, said he would refrain from imposing the tariffs and ruled out the use of force in the dispute over the Danish territory. He added that a “framework” agreement was taking shape to ease tensions with NATO allies.
“It’s a long-term deal — the ultimate long-term deal — and it puts everyone in a very strong position, particularly when it comes to security and minerals,” Trump told reporters. Gold also faced mild pressure from a modest rebound in the U.S. dollar, with the Dollar Index trading slightly higher after rising 0.1% in the previous session.
The modern state increasingly rests on three foundations: debt, fiat currency, and coercive power. Concepts such as “national security” and “critical minerals” have become the latest government talking points, widely promoted and readily accepted by the public. Meanwhile, personal preparedness—once a priority during health crises—has faded from focus, even as harmful consumer habits and ultra-processed foods continue to be normalized and aggressively marketed.
Political leaders often project strength through military posturing and geopolitical confrontation while avoiding personal sacrifice, financing these actions primarily through expanding debt and currency creation. In several regions, power structures are maintained through force, information control, and repression rather than genuine legitimacy or accountability.
Across parts of the world, regimes with deeply troubling records are frequently rebranded as sources of “stability” when it suits geopolitical or economic interests, particularly in energy and resource markets. This pattern underscores a broader contradiction: governments race to announce ambitious initiatives and sweeping strategies, yet largely ignore the importance of real savings and sound money.
Against this backdrop, a growing share of the global population—particularly in Asia, along with a minority of investors in the West—has turned toward long-term wealth preservation through tangible assets such as gold and silver. For those already positioned this way, the erratic behavior and short-term thinking of governments is more a source of frustration than fear.
Gold is the currency of independent citizens. While the U.S. dollar is technically due for its fifth cyclical rebound against gold in the past 50 years, that does not mean it must happen immediately—and when it does…. Gold-focused savers should stay prepared to add to their gold holdings—and silver as well.
On the weekly chart, gold appears technically overbought, yet its price behavior is beginning to resemble the equity market’s powerful advance in the mid-1990s. Momentum indicators such as RSI and Stochastics are finding support near the 50 level before pushing above 70 and remaining elevated for extended periods—an indication of strong, persistent trends rather than imminent reversals.
Against a backdrop of rising debt, expanding fiat issuance, and escalating geopolitical risks, prominent gold investors such as Pierre Lassonde have projected that gold prices could approach the $20,000 level in the years ahead.
From a portfolio-management perspective, selectively taking profits—up to roughly 30% in many cases—can be prudent, not as a call on a fiat-denominated price peak, but as a way to build liquidity. That capital can then be redeployed during the next meaningful pullback, which is likely to occur at price levels well above today’s.
Psychologically, sharp corrections can be challenging, particularly for investors without available cash. Maintaining some dry powder through partial profit-taking enables investors to add to gold, silver, and mining positions when opportunities arise—this is the primary rationale for trimming exposure now.
Fundamentally, the case for gold remains exceptionally strong. Recent statements suggesting potential military actions involving NATO allies underscore the degree of geopolitical uncertainty. Even without direct conflict, such rhetoric alone could propel gold significantly higher against fiat currencies. In the event of an actual escalation, price moves of $2,000 per ounce—or more—could unfold rapidly.
The Shiller (CAPE) ratio—an inflation-adjusted price-to-earnings measure for the S&P 500—highlights the extreme valuation levels currently embedded in U.S equities.
If U.S. policymakers continue to pressure European allies through aggressive tariff measures while openly discussing military options, the resulting backlash could be severe. At some point, a tipping point may be reached, prompting European governments and institutions to rapidly reduce exposure to U.S. government bonds and U.S. equities.
Such a scenario would carry profound risks. Asset freezes or retaliatory measures could follow, severely disrupting global financial markets. Under those conditions, gold could experience explosive upside moves, potentially rising by thousands of fiat-denominated dollars in very short order. At the same time, forced selling from Europe could trigger a rapid collapse in U.S. equity markets, with a speed and scale rivaling—or even exceeding—historic market crashes.
The broader takeaway is that gold increasingly functions as a form of sovereign money for billions of individuals, particularly across Asia, who already view it as a long-term store of value. As pressures build on systems dominated by fiat currency, debt expansion, and coercive policy tools, the resilience of those systems may be tested. Should confidence fracture, the adjustment—especially in the U.S.—could be both abrupt and far-reaching.
Turning to the 10-year Treasury yield chart, the recent upside breakout carries profound implications for both the U.S. government and gold. For years, the notion of unlimited quantitative easing was promoted as a sustainable solution, but that framework was always unrealistic. Instead, it appears to be giving way to a regime of persistently higher interest rates—and, in parallel, steadily rising fiat-denominated gold prices.
This shift reflects a deeper issue: confidence in governments and their currencies is eroding. As debt burdens expand and monetary credibility weakens, markets are beginning to price in a structural change rather than a temporary cycle. In that environment, higher yields and higher gold prices are not contradictions but complementary signals of systemic stress.
The loss of trust in fiat-based systems is no longer a distant risk; it is an active force shaping global markets—and one that is likely to persist.
While a new Federal Reserve chair has yet to be appointed, the leading candidate, Kevin, is known to favor aggressive quantitative tightening and has openly described equity markets as severely overvalued. To restore credibility in the U.S. government, its bond market, and the dollar, a substantial and sustained QT program would likely be required.
What I continue to regard as one of the most significant base formations in market history is the inverse head-and-shoulders pattern on the CDNX. I have long argued that a breakout from this structure would likely coincide with a major move higher in long-term interest rates, and recent developments suggest that this scenario is unfolding decisively.
My long-term objective for the CDNX stands at 10,000, and well before that level is reached, many junior resource stocks could deliver outsized returns—potentially achieving multi-hundred- or even thousand-fold gains.
Another chart I encourage investors to monitor closely is the GDX-to-gold ratio. Of particular note is the 14,3,3 Stochastics oscillator at the bottom of the chart. As the upside breakout gains traction and the rally develops, this momentum indicator could remain in overbought territory not merely for months or years, but potentially for an extended secular period.
The broader takeaway is clear: Markets appear to be entering a new phase—one defined by a sustained gold bull cycle. In this environment, informed and disciplined investors stand to benefit the most, as capital increasingly shifts toward real assets and away from fiat-based complacency.
WTI crude prices edged lower to around $59.25 in early European trading on Tuesday.
Tensions surrounding Iran have eased in recent days following earlier speculation about a potential U.S. attack.
Market attention is now turning to developments around Greenland after President Trump threatened to escalate tariffs on eight European countries.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the U.S. crude oil benchmark, was trading near $59.25 during early European hours on Tuesday. Prices edged lower as concerns over supply disruptions from Iran eased, while traders continued to assess the implications of the U.S. push to take control of Greenland.
There were no signs of escalating tensions in Iran over the weekend, although Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said that 5,000 people were killed in anti-government protests this month, according to Reuters. The easing of tensions has reduced the risk of a potential U.S. attack that could disrupt supplies from a major OPEC producer, weighing on WTI prices.
Traders are turning their focus to the Greenland crisis after U.S. President Donald Trump said on Saturday that Washington would impose an additional 10% import tariff from February 1 on goods from Denmark, Norway, Sweden, France, Germany, the Netherlands, Finland and the United Kingdom until the U.S. is permitted to purchase Greenland.
Trump is expected to discuss Greenland at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, on Wednesday, while European Union leaders are set to hold an emergency summit in Brussels on Thursday. Concerns that tensions could escalate into a broader U.S.–EU trade war have weighed on market sentiment and may add selling pressure to oil prices.
“With fears around Iran easing in recent days following rumors of a U.S. attack, market attention has shifted to the Greenland issue and the potential depth of any fallout between the U.S. and Europe, as an expanded trade conflict could weigh on demand,” said Janiv Shah, an analyst at Rystad.
Meanwhile, the American Petroleum Institute’s (API) crude inventory report is due later on Tuesday. A larger-than-expected draw could signal stronger demand and support WTI prices, while a bigger-than-forecast build would point to weaker demand or oversupply, potentially pressuring prices lower.
Gold prices surged beyond $4,800 an ounce on Wednesday, hitting a fresh record as rising tensions surrounding Greenland and renewed trade disputes unsettled global markets, prompting investors to seek refuge in safe-haven assets.
Spot gold advanced 1.7% to an all-time high of $4,844.39 an ounce by 21:13 ET (02:13 GMT), extending a powerful rally that has seen bullion notch multiple record highs this month.
Meanwhile, U.S. gold futures rose 1.3% to $4,830.04 per ounce. Gold has gained more than 5% so far this week, including Wednesday’s advance, as geopolitical tensions continue to underpin safe-haven demand.
The latest rally comes amid ongoing strain in U.S.–European relations over Greenland’s strategic significance. U.S. President Donald Trump has stated there is “no going back” on Greenland, citing Arctic security concerns, and has warned of potential tariffs on European nations—adding to market anxiety already heightened by global trade risks.
In response, French President Emmanuel Macron said Europe would not yield to “bullies,” emphasising that mutual respect and cooperation—not pressure—should guide relations between allies. Speaking on the sidelines of the World Economic Forum in Davos, Macron’s comments highlighted growing European unease over Washington’s rhetoric and trade threats linked to the Greenland issue.
Although Trump attempted to ease concerns by saying the U.S. was working toward a solution acceptable to NATO, investor caution has persisted.
Demand for gold was further supported by a weaker U.S. dollar, which fell roughly 0.8% on Tuesday to its lowest level in two weeks. The U.S. Dollar Index remained under pressure during Asian trading on Wednesday, slipping a further 0.2%.
A softer dollar typically boosts gold by making the metal more affordable for holders of other currencies, increasing demand for the non-yielding asset.
Elsewhere in the precious metals complex, silver prices dipped slightly to around $93.9 per ounce after reaching a record high of $95.87 per ounce on Tuesday. Platinum also touched a fresh all-time high of $2,519.51 per ounce on Wednesday before giving back gains, last trading about 0.6% lower at $2,450.9 per ounce.
Gold prices jumped to record highs in Asian trade on Monday, nearing $4,700 an ounce, as strong safe-haven demand followed President Donald Trump’s threat to impose fresh tariffs on eight European countries over Greenland.
Spot gold was last up 1.8% at $4,675.55 an ounce by 19:31 ET (00:31 GMT), after touching a session record of $4,690.75 earlier.U.S. gold futures rose 1.9% to $4,681.10 an ounce.
The precious metal built on last week’s strong gains, during which bullion posted a series of record highs, supported by growing expectations of U.S. interest rate cuts and elevated geopolitical risks.
Silver surged more than 4% to a fresh record high of $94.03 an ounce, buoyed by both safe-haven demand and its role as an industrial metal.
U.S. President Donald Trump said on Sunday he would impose fresh tariffs on eight European countries that have opposed Washington’s plan to acquire Greenland.Trump said a 10% levy would be introduced from Feb. 1, with the rate set to rise to 25% in June if no agreement is reached.
The affected countries include France, Germany and the United Kingdom, along with several Nordic and northern European nations.The move drew sharp criticism from European officials and reignited fears of a wider transatlantic trade dispute, driving investors toward precious metals.
The tariff threat added to an already favorable environment for gold, which has been supported in recent weeks by expectations that the Federal Reserve will begin cutting interest rates later this year.
Weaker U.S. economic data and signs of easing inflation have reinforced the case for monetary easing, lowering the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets such as gold.
Geopolitical risks have also underpinned prices, with gold rising sharply last week amid renewed concerns over developments in the Middle East, including tensions involving Iran.
Silver is being boosted by expectations of interest rate cuts, a weaker US dollar, and increasing geopolitical tensions.
Limited supply combined with record-high industrial demand make silver very responsive to changes in market risk sentiment.
Staying above $83.36 maintains potential for further gains, while dips toward $75 are likely to draw in buyers.
Silver kicks off the week with robust momentum, fueled by multiple factors converging simultaneously. Safe-haven demand is increasing due to geopolitical tensions, the broader economic environment supports expectations of US interest rate cuts, and supply remains constrained amid strong industrial demand.
As a metal that bridges both precious and industrial categories, silver typically reacts more quickly than many other assets to changes in market risk sentiment.
Interest Rates, US Dollar, and Risk Sentiment Are Aligning Together
Last week’s US December jobs report indicated a cooling labor market. Non-farm payrolls increased by only 50,000, while the unemployment rate fell to 4.4%, revealing softer underlying growth despite the headline figures.
This data boosted market expectations for an earlier Federal Reserve interest rate cut. As rate cut bets rose and the US dollar weakened, demand grew for non-yielding assets like silver, giving prices fresh support.
At the same time, increased judicial scrutiny of Jerome Powell and escalating tensions between the Federal Reserve and the administration have added more pressure on the US dollar. Rising political and institutional uncertainty has driven investors toward safe-haven assets, a trend that often causes sharper price swings not just in gold but also in silver, which typically experiences greater volatility.
Safe Haven Demand Returns to Center Stage
Uncertainty in the Middle East and global politics continues to drive safe haven demand in commodity markets. Rising protests in Iran and renewed tensions between Tehran and the US have pushed investors toward gold and silver.
Recent moves by the Trump administration involving Venezuela and Iran, including plans for Venezuelan oil exports and new sanctions threats, have added further uncertainty. In this context, silver’s rebound above $80 an ounce shows how quickly changes in risk sentiment impact prices. Ongoing geopolitical risks from the Russia-Ukraine war and the Gaza conflict also reinforce the environment supporting strong demand for safe haven assets.
Industrial Demand and Supply Challenges
Attributing silver’s rise solely to macroeconomic and geopolitical factors overlooks a key part of the picture. Industrial demand for silver is projected to hit record highs in 2025 and remain strong into 2026. Currently, about 58% of global silver demand comes from industrial uses, driven by rapid growth in sectors like solar panels, electric vehicles, electronics, and AI-related hardware.
This evolving demand profile is making silver a more strategic commodity, which helps explain why its prices often react faster and with greater volatility when risk appetite or commodity exposure shifts.
On the supply side, constraints persist. Only around 27% of silver production comes from primary silver mines; the majority is a byproduct of copper, lead, zinc, and gold mining, limiting the ability to quickly ramp up output. Following several years of supply deficits from 2021 to 2024, total silver supply in 2025 is estimated at about 813 million ounces, compared to demand of roughly 1.24 billion ounces.
Inventories in London, China, and the United States have dropped to low levels, underscoring the tight market conditions. China’s new export licensing system, implemented on January 1, has added extra pressure by complicating shipments, particularly for smaller producers. Meanwhile, silver’s designation as a critical mineral in the US, along with consistent physical buying in China and India, continues to bolster fundamental demand.
Silver’s Technical Outlook
On the daily chart, silver spent much of last week trading sideways between $74.66 and $83.36 while maintaining its overall uptrend. This consolidation above the rising trendline suggests a temporary pause rather than a reversal. Strong buying interest near $74 late last week, followed by a renewed push toward new highs this week, indicates that short-term momentum has shifted back to the buyers.
Technically, the $83.36 level is crucial. A decisive break and sustained trading above this point would turn previous resistance into support. As long as silver stays above $83.36, any pullbacks are likely profit-taking rather than a trend change, keeping the bullish outlook intact.
In this scenario, silver could pick up pace toward the Fibonacci extension targets at $87, $88.76, and $91.28. Holding above $91 would further strengthen the case for a run toward the psychological $100 mark, with a potential next target around $103.63 if momentum continues.
Momentum indicators back this positive outlook. The Stochastic RSI has been hovering near oversold levels, increasing the chance of an upside signal if silver stays above $83.36. The moving averages remain bullish, with short-term exponential moving averages trending upward and price holding above the 8-day EMA at 78.56 and the 21-day EMA at 73.20, reinforcing the prevailing upward trend.
On the downside, daily closes below $83 would raise concerns about breaking the short-term rising trend. In that case, the first support to watch is 78.56, aligning with the 8-day EMA. If that fails, the 74.50 to 74.66 zone becomes crucial, marking the base of recent consolidation and a key Fibonacci retracement level.
A decisive break below this support band could lead to a deeper correction toward 69.28 and potentially 64.93. However, if the broader fundamentals remain supportive—such as expectations for rate cuts, a weaker dollar, elevated geopolitical risks, and ongoing supply constraints—any pullbacks near $75 are likely to attract buyers.
In summary, fundamentals continue to favor silver, but technically, holding above $83.36 is critical to confirm the uptrend. As long as this level holds, silver’s path higher remains open for gradual gains.
Silver futures continue their strong upward momentum, trading near $79.80 after a significant rally that pushed prices well above the VC PMI (Variable Changing Price Momentum Indicator) average and into the upper resistance zone.
This pattern indicates the market has entered what we call escape-velocity behavior—where the trend’s acceleration temporarily outweighs short-term oscillators but still respects longer-term geometry and cycle pressures.
Looking at the VC PMI, the daily mean is holding steady around $76.02, providing dynamic support throughout the week. The market also successfully defended the Daily Buy 1 level at $73.38, confirming the strength of the current bullish setup.
Now, prices are approaching the Daily Sell 1 zone near $78.70, with the Daily Sell 2 resistance at $82.24 closely matching the previous swing high of $82.58. This overlap suggests a higher likelihood of short-term profit-taking or consolidation, rather than a reversal of the uptrend.
On the weekly VC PMI framework, silver stays solidly above the Weekly Buy 1 level at $73.70, with the Weekly VC PMI mean around $78.15, reinforcing that the prevailing trend is upward. However, the Weekly Sell 1 level at $83.78 and Weekly Sell 2 at $88.23 mark key resistance zones where momentum typically slows and volatility tends to increase.
From a time-cycle perspective, silver is currently trading within a compressed late-week cycle window, a phase where markets often pause, rotate, or experience slight retracements before the next move. Such pauses are common in strong trends and usually serve to reset momentum for continuation rather than signaling a reversal.
The present cycle alignment suggests an initial phase of range expansion, followed by consolidation, rather than signaling a trend exhaustion.
The Square of 9 geometry further supports this view. The $82–$83 area corresponds with a significant angular resistance band, while the $78–$76 range serves as a key rotational support zone. As long as prices stay above the VC PMI mean, the primary square rotation remains bullish, with higher-level targets pointing toward the mid-$80s in upcoming cycle windows.
In summary, silver maintains a strong bullish structure according to both the VC PMI and Square of 9 frameworks. Any short-term pauses or pullbacks should be seen as opportunities for mean reversion within the broader uptrend, rather than signs of trend reversal.
Oil prices climbed during Asian trading on Thursday, regaining some losses after sharp declines triggered by worries over rising Venezuelan crude supplies.
Additionally, stronger-than-anticipated weekly declines in U.S. oil inventories supported the price recovery. Ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine also contributed to maintaining a risk premium in the market.
March Brent crude futures increased by 0.7% to reach $60.38 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures also gained 0.7%, settling at $56.28 per barrel as of 20:25 ET (01:25 GMT). Both benchmarks had fallen more than 1% over the previous two sessions.
Attention turns to US – Venezuela oil agreement after Trump highlights up to $3 billion in planned crude sales
Oil markets are closely watching the impact of a new agreement between the U.S. and Venezuela on global oil supplies.
U.S. President Donald Trump announced on Tuesday that Venezuela will deliver between 30 million and 50 million barrels of oil to the U.S., valued at up to $3 billion, shortly after U.S. forces detained Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro.
Trump also appeared to encourage multiple U.S. oil companies to expand production activities in Venezuela, with Chevron Corp (NYSE: CVX) leading these efforts. According to Reuters, Chevron is negotiating to broaden its license to operate in the country.
Currently, Chevron is the only major U.S. oil company active in Venezuela, benefiting from special government exemptions that shield it from stringent sanctions imposed on the nation.
Markets are worried that a significant rise in Venezuelan oil output could further swell global supplies, adding to prevailing fears of an oil glut in 2026. Traders are already pricing in ample supply conditions, with expectations that any additional barrels from Venezuela might weigh on crude prices.
However, analysts caution that any meaningful increase in Venezuelan production is unlikely to happen quickly, given the country’s deep political instability and the extensive investment needed to rebuild its dilapidated oil infrastructure after recent upheavals.
A Financial Times report also noted that U.S. oil firms are seeking strong legal and financial guarantees from the U.S. government before committing to major investments in Venezuela’s oil sector, reflecting industry hesitancy amid uncertain policy and market conditions.
U.S. crude stockpiles decline beyond forecasts
Government data released Wednesday revealed that U.S. oil inventories fell by 3.8 million barrels in the week ending January 2, significantly exceeding expectations of a 1.2 million barrel decline.
This reduction was almost double the 1.9 million barrel draw reported the previous week, bolstering confidence that demand remains robust in the world’s largest fuel consumer.
Attention this week centers on several key U.S. economic reports, especially the December nonfarm payrolls data set to be released on Friday, which is expected to influence interest rate forecasts.
Japanese Candlesticks are a type of price chart used in financial markets to show how an asset’s price moves over a specific period of time. They are one of the most popular tools in technical analysis because they visually display market psychology—who is in control: buyers or sellers.
Origin
Japanese candlesticks were developed in Japan in the 18th century, originally used by rice traders. They were later introduced to Western markets by Steve Nison in the 1990s.
Why Candlesticks Are Powerful
Easy to read and interpret
Show market sentiment instantly
Help identify trend reversals and continuations
Work across all markets and timeframes
Used in 📈 Stocks 💱 Forex 🪙 Crypto 🛢️ Commodities
Common Candlestick Patterns
Best Practice
Candlestick patterns are most effective when combined with:
Trend analysis
Support & resistance
Volume
Indicators (RSI, MACD, Moving Averages)
Simple Definition
Japanese candlesticks are a visual price charting method that shows market psychology through price action.
Gold continued its strong rally in Asian trading on Tuesday, moving back toward record territory as rising geopolitical tensions after a U.S. strike on Venezuela boosted safe-haven demand for the metal.
Spot gold inched up 0.2% to $4,458.20 an ounce at 01:22 ET (06:22 GMT), while U.S. gold futures gained 0.4% to $4,469.10 per ounce.
Bullion had jumped 2.7% in the previous session—its biggest one-day advance in weeks—as investors sought refuge in precious metals amid growing global market uncertainty.
Although prices reached a record high of $4,549.71 per ounce last week before retreating on profit-taking, gold has since recovered and is again trading close to those peak levels.
Gold jumps as U.S. action in Venezuela and Fed rate-cut expectations fuel demand
The surge was mainly sparked by events in Venezuela, where U.S. troops carried out a surprise operation over the weekend that led to the arrest of President Nicolás Maduro, sharply intensifying geopolitical risks and unsettling commodity markets.
Officials said Maduro was taken to the United States to face long-standing narcotics-related charges and entered a not-guilty plea in a New York court on Monday.
According to Reuters, U.S. President Donald Trump is preparing to meet with executives from major American oil companies to discuss measures to increase Venezuela’s oil output.
Expectations of prolonged geopolitical tensions and potential policy changes have further strengthened gold’s role as a hedge against market volatility.
Gold also drew support from growing expectations that U.S. interest rates will continue to decline in 2026.
Markets are now factoring in two additional Federal Reserve rate cuts this year, an environment that typically benefits non-yielding assets like gold.
On Monday, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari noted that U.S. inflation has been easing gradually, strengthening the view that the central bank could have room to ease policy if price pressures keep moderating.
Investors are closely tracking upcoming U.S. economic data for further signals on the Fed’s policy direction. December’s nonfarm payrolls report, due Friday, is expected to be a crucial gauge of labor market strength and could shape rate expectations in the months ahead.
Silver and platinum climb as copper sets a new record
Other precious and industrial metals also traded firmly higher on Tuesday.
Silver surged 3% to $78.78 an ounce, while platinum gained 2% to $2,331.25 per ounce.
On the London Metal Exchange, benchmark copper futures rose 2.2% to a record $13,331.0 per ton. U.S. copper futures also advanced 1.5% to $6.07 a pound, marking their highest level on record.
According to ING analysts, copper’s continued rally has been driven by disruptions to mine supply and shifts in trade flows caused by tariffs imposed by U.S. President Trump.
Financial markets extended the holiday-thinned mood on the first trading day of the new year, with investors largely staying on the sidelines. Markets remain in a wait-and-see mode ahead of a data-heavy week.
The US Dollar Index (DXY) traded near the 98.40 area on Friday, paring a significant portion of its New Year losses.
Gold (XAU/USD) traded around the $4,320 level, surrendering all intraday gains following the New Year’s break. Expectations of lower US interest rates and elevated geopolitical tensions have continued to support precious metals in recent sessions.
EUR/USD hovered near 1.1740 after edging lower earlier in the week, remaining under pressure as investors await upcoming economic data.
GBP/USD traded close to the 1.3480 area, little changed during the first US session of the year.
USD/JPY hovered around the 156.50 region, trading slightly lower on the day with limited intraday movement.
AUD/USD traded near the 0.6690 area on Friday, posting modest gains after paring nearly half of its intraday advance.
Key Economic Data Ahead: Upcoming Releases Set to Shape Market Sentiment
Over the coming days, investors will closely watch US employment figures and global inflation data, which are expected to influence central bank policies.
Monday: The US Institute for Supply Management (ISM) releases the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) for December.
Tuesday: Germany’s Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) and Australia’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) are scheduled for publication.
Wednesday: The US ADP Employment Change report (December), ISM Services PMI (December), and the preliminary Eurozone HICP (December) will be released.
Thursday: The US Trade Balance for October and Consumer Credit data for November are due.
January 9: The highly anticipated US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report for December and the preliminary January Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index will be published.
These releases are expected to set the tone for market direction and provide clues on the pace of monetary tightening by major central banks.
THE ETERNAL SOVEREIGN 