Pump.fun slid 11% on Wednesday from its 50-day EMA and now risks breaking below the 20-day EMA
Story has fallen more than 6% in the past 24 hours and is closing in on the $2 psychological floor
Pudgy Penguins is retesting the 50-day EMA as buying strength weakens following Wednesday’s 9% pullback
Pump.fun (PUMP), Story (IP), and Pudgy Penguins (PENGU) have come under strong selling pressure in the past 24 hours. PUMP and IP were unable to break above their 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), triggering Wednesday’s retreat, while PENGU currently sits on its 50-day EMA. Overall, technical indicators continue to point to a bearish setup given the ongoing downward trend.
Weakening Bullish Momentum Puts Pump.fun at Risk of Further Downside
Pump.fun trades above the 20-day EMA at $0.002248 at press time on Thursday, following an 11% drop from the 50-day EMA at $0.002624 on the previous day, breaking the eight-day streak of uptrend.
If the meme-coin launchpad token slips below $0.0002248, losses could deepen toward the $0.002000 psychological level, with further downside targeting the S1 Pivot at $0.001262.
Daily-chart indicators show fading buyer strength: the RSI has eased to 51 and is drifting toward the midpoint, while the MACD has flattened, with shrinking green histograms pointing to weakening bullish momentum.
PUMP/USDT daily price chart.
If PUMP rallies back above the 50-day EMA at $0.002624, the next upside target would be the R1 Pivot Point at $0.002983.
Story hits the crucial crossroads at $2.00
Story trades around $2.00 at the time of writing on Thursday, marking its third consecutive bearish day. The meme coin is down 2%, extending the 4% decline from the previous day and risking the 20-day EMA at $1.91.
If IP falls below $1.91, it could further decline to the S1 Pivot Point at $1.22.
Similar to PUMP, the technical indicators on the daily chart point to declining buying pressure in Story. The RSI is at 53, slipping closer to the halfway line while the MACD approaches the signal line risking a crossover which would indicate renewed bearish momentum.
PENGU/USDT daily price chart.
To reinstate an upward trend, IP should exceed the 50-day EMA at $2.33, potentially targeting the R1 Pivot Point at $2.41.
Pudgy Penguins Faces a Potential Breakdown Below the 50-Day EMA
Pudgy Penguins is currently trading above the 50-day EMA at $0.01179 after Wednesday’s 9% pullback. At press time, PENGU is hovering near $0.01200, just below the R1 Pivot Point at $0.01193.
A drop beneath this zone could push the token toward immediate support at the 20-day EMA of $0.01091, near the key $0.01000 psychological level.
Like PUMP and IP, PENGU’s daily chart signals weakening demand, with technical indicators pointing to fading buying strength.
PENGU/USDT daily price chart.
On the upside, a recovery in PENGU could push the price toward the R1 Pivot Point at $0.01518.
The ISM service index suggests potential positive revisions for fourth-quarter GDP growth. On Wednesday, the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) reported that its non-manufacturing service sector index increased to 54.4 in December from 52.6 in November, marking the third consecutive month of expansion and the fastest pace of growth in over a year.
The new orders sub-index rose sharply to 57.9 from 52.9, while business activity climbed to 56 from 54.5. Additionally, new export orders improved to 54.2, up from 48.7 in November. Out of 16 surveyed service industries, 11 showed expansion in December.
Conversely, the ISM manufacturing index fell to 47.9 in December from 48.2 the prior month, continuing its contractionary trend for the tenth straight month (a reading below 50 indicates contraction). Only 2 of 17 manufacturing industries—Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components, and Computer & Electronic Products—reported growth, likely supported by strong data center demand.
ADP’s December report showed private payrolls increasing by 41,000, missing economists’ expectation of 48,000. This follows a loss of 29,000 private jobs in November, meaning just 12,000 private jobs were created over the last two months. Manufacturing shed 5,000 jobs in December, while education and health services added 39,000, and leisure and hospitality gained 24,000 jobs. Regionally, the West lost 61,000 private sector jobs, while the South led with a gain of 54,000.
Residential investment acted as a 5.1% drag on GDP growth during the second and third quarters. Strengthening GDP going forward will depend largely on stabilizing the residential real estate market, which remains sluggish due to high mortgage rates, rising insurance costs, and an oversupply in several key areas. According to the Intercontinental Exchange, prices for U.S. condominiums dropped 1.9% in September and October, with high homeowners association (HOA) fees and insurance expenses cited as major factors. In nine major metropolitan regions, over 25% of condominiums have fallen below their original sale prices. While multiple Federal Reserve rate cuts could help support home prices, the current weakness is fueling deflationary concerns that the Fed needs to address.
If deflation emerges from (1) weak housing and rental prices, (2) low crude oil prices, and (3) deflation imported from China and other struggling global economies, the Fed may need to implement rapid interest rate cuts totaling around 100 basis points. With President Trump expected to nominate a new Fed Chair soon, current Chair Jerome Powell is likely to become a lame duck. Minutes from the December Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting indicated at least one more 0.25% rate cut is probable, but any further deflationary signals could prompt the Fed to enact much larger reductions in key rates in the coming months.
President Trump is expected to nominate a new Federal Reserve Chair in January who will likely reverse the Fed’s current restrictive policies and adopt a more pro-business stance. Should Kevin Hassett, the current Chair of the Council of Economic Advisors, be appointed, the Fed would gain a strong economic advocate, a development that many find promising and exciting.
After months of rising tensions, the United States launched a major military operation in Venezuela on 3 January 2026, resulting in the capture of President Nicolás Maduro and his wife, Cilia Flores. U.S. President Donald Trump confirmed the operation, saying Washington would administer Venezuela until a stable transition government could be established. This marks one of the most dramatic U.S. interventions in Latin America in decades, with Maduro removed from power and taken into U.S. custody.
Maduro, long a focal point of U.S. sanctions and foreign policy pressure, was transported to the United States to face federal charges—such as narco‑terrorism and drug trafficking—filed in the Southern District of New York.
Venezuela holds the world’s largest proven oil reserves, and the sudden change in leadership carries significant geopolitical and economic implications well beyond its borders.
Why Did the US Capture Maduro?
Nicolás Maduro rose through the Venezuelan political system under socialist leader Hugo Chávez and became president in 2013. His time in power was widely criticized domestically and internationally, with opponents accusing him of suppressing dissent, restricting freedoms, and holding elections that lacked credibility.
Relations with Washington deteriorated sharply, especially under the Trump administration. U.S. officials accused Maduro’s government of involvement in drug trafficking and creating conditions that fueled migration toward the United States. They also branded elements of his regime—including the Cartel of the Suns—as a terrorist organization.
Tensions escalated in 2025 when the U.S. increased the bounty for Maduro’s arrest to $50 million and expanded military pressure in the region, including strikes on vessels the U.S. claimed were tied to drug smuggling.
On 3 January 2026, after months of military buildup and diplomatic pressure, U.S. forces launched a major operation in Venezuela—code‑named Operation Absolute Resolve—that resulted in the capture of Maduro and his wife. The U.S. government framed the intervention as a law‑enforcement action tied to longstanding criminal charges against Maduro, including narcoterrorism.
The United States claims that Venezuelan officials were engaged in government‑backed drug trafficking, asserting links with the so‑called Cartel of the Suns, which Washington has designated as a terrorist organization—a claim Maduro vehemently rejects. He argues that U.S. actions were aimed at forcing regime change and securing control over Venezuela’s vast oil riches.
Only hours before his detention, Maduro made his final public appearance as president when he hosted China’s special envoy, Qiu Xiaoqi, at the Miraflores Palace to discuss bilateral relations—an event that highlighted Caracas’s reliance on foreign partnerships for political support. Shortly after that meeting, explosions were reported across Caracas.
The event went beyond a simple arrest; it sent a broader strategic message, particularly to countries like China and Iran, undermining the belief that the U.S. would refrain from acting against governments supported by foreign adversaries.
Drill, Baby, Drill
A major strategic factor behind U.S. actions in Venezuela appears to be securing access to its vast energy resources. Venezuela sits on the largest proven oil reserves on the planet, with estimates from Wood Mackenzie suggesting roughly 241 billion barrels of recoverable crude, making it a uniquely significant player in global oil markets.
Top Countries by Proven Oil Reserves (Billion Barrels)
However, Venezuela’s track record of oil output underscores just how challenging it has been to tap into its vast reserves. In the late 1990s and early 2000s, the nation was capable of producing close to 3 million barrels per day—a level that made it one of the world’s top crude exporters. But political turmoil, labor strikes, and the restructuring of the oil sector under Hugo Chávez triggered a prolonged decline. The downturn was steepened further by U.S. sanctions starting in 2017, which restricted investment, technology, and exports, driving production down sharply. After bottoming out around 374,000–500,000 bpd during the worst of the crisis, output has only modestly recovered in recent years and remains in the range of approximately 800,000–900,000 bpd.
Historical Total Venezuelan Supply
Expectations that Venezuelan oil output could quickly rebound may overstate what’s realistically achievable. History shows that even after major disruptions, rebuilding oil production takes many years and vast investment. For example, Iraq needed almost a decade and well over $200 billion in capital to restore its output after the Iraq War, while Libya still has not returned to its pre‑2011 production levels.
Venezuela’s challenges are even more severe. Most of its reserves are extra‑heavy crude that demands upgrading and blending with diluents before it can be transported and refined, a costly and technical process. Years of underinvestment, international sanctions, the erosion of PDVSA’s workforce, and the deterioration of infrastructure have compounded these production hurdles. Pipelines, upgraders, and refineries have been left in poor condition, and limited access to modern technology continues to restrict any rapid recovery.
While PDVSA has claimed that facilities were not physically damaged in recent events—suggesting limited short‑term disruption—oil markets appear capable of absorbing this uncertainty for now. Inventories remain ample, and OPEC+ has signalled that its voluntary cuts of around 1.65 million bpd could be reversed if necessary to balance markets.
In a scenario where a pro‑U.S. government enables sanctions relief and attracts foreign investment, Venezuelan exports could gradually recover. But bringing production back to around 3 million bpd would take many years and substantial infrastructure upgrades. U.S. leadership has indicated that American oil companies would play a role in operating and developing Venezuela’s oil sector, though analysts note that the heavy crude’s technical challenges and investment risks remain significant.
Meanwhile, global oil markets are structurally tightening, with world consumption exceeding 101 million bpd driven by demand growth in the U.S., China, and India. Any short‑term impact on supply may show up as a modest increase in geopolitical risk premiums, but over time, the sidelined Venezuelan barrels—currently producing around 800,000–900,000 bpd—could eventually add supply and influence prices if output scales up gradually.
In addition to oil, Venezuela sits on a wealth of mineral resources. Large deposits of iron ore, bauxite, gold, nickel, copper, zinc and other metallic minerals are concentrated mainly in the southern Guayana Shield region. The country also ranks among Latin America’s largest holders of gold, and geological assessments identify significant iron and bauxite resources alongside reserves of coal, antimony, molybdenum and other base metals.
Despite this geological potential, commercial mining activity remains very limited. Most non‑oil mineral sectors contribute only a tiny fraction of Venezuela’s economic output, and substantial foreign investment has largely been absent, meaning much of the nation’s mineral wealth has yet to be developed into large‑scale production.
The Ongoing Economic Battle Between the United States and China
Competition between modern empires today is no longer about direct confrontation but about control over key inputs. Energy, metals, and critical materials form the foundation of the modern world. When leaders signal a willingness to secure these resources directly, markets should interpret this not as mere rhetoric, but as a concrete resource strategy.
The rivalry between the United States and China is fundamentally structural rather than ideological. The U.S. is rich in energy but dependent on imported metals and rare earths. China dominates metals processing but imports around 70% of its crude oil. Each side is strong where the other is vulnerable, and both seek to turn this imbalance into strategic advantage.
Control over energy flows also carries monetary implications. Influence over Venezuelan oil is not only about supply, but also about reinforcing the petrodollar and preventing the rise of the petroyuan.
There is also a regional dimension to this rivalry. China has steadily increased its presence in Latin America through infrastructure projects and commodity-backed financing. Recent U.S. moves indicate an effort to reassert dominance in the Western Hemisphere, compelling Beijing to compete on less advantageous terms. The Trump administration’s 2025 National Security Strategy elevated the region to a core priority, effectively reviving the logic of the Monroe Doctrine—rebranded as the “Donroe Doctrine.” The aim is to bring strategically important natural resources, especially critical minerals and rare earths, under U.S.-aligned corporate control while building a hemisphere-wide supply chain that reduces dependence on China.
Across much of South America, governments are edging closer to Washington, leaving Brazil increasingly isolated. This is significant given President Lula’s openly left-leaning stance and his consistent alignment with Russia, China, and Iran. Following Trump’s capture of Maduro, betting markets on Kalshi assign a 90% probability that the presidents of Colombia and Peru will be out of office before 2027. At the same time, President Trump has again stated that Greenland should become part of the United States, reinforcing a broader strategy centered on securing critical assets.
Which Assets Could Gain from “Nation Building” in Venezuela?
A political transition in Venezuela would most directly benefit assets tied to sovereign debt restructuring, energy infrastructure, and the oil supply chain.
Venezuelan bonds are currently priced at roughly 25–35 cents on the dollar, reflecting the impact of sanctions and ongoing legal uncertainty. Under a regime-change scenario, several analysts project potential recoveries in the 30–55 cent range, supported by the prospects of debt restructuring and the easing or removal of sanctions.
Ashmore continues to rank among the largest institutional holders of Venezuelan sovereign debt. Advisory firms such as Houlihan Lokey—financial adviser to the Venezuela Creditor Committee—and Lazard, a veteran of major sovereign restructurings (including Greece and Ukraine), would likely stand to gain from the sheer scale and complexity of any debt workout. In such processes, advisers typically earn success-based fees and function as the “picks and shovels” of restructuring. Venezuela’s debt structure is widely regarded as one of the most intricate ever assembled.
Reviving Venezuela’s oil industry would demand swift rehabilitation of aging infrastructure. Technip, which historically designed much of the country’s core oil facilities, is well placed to play a leading role given its proprietary expertise—particularly if emergency repairs are fast-tracked through sole-source or no-bid contracts. Graham Corporation, a supplier of vacuum ejector systems used in heavy-oil upgrading and refining, could also benefit, since Venezuela’s crude requires vacuum distillation to prevent it from solidifying into coke.
Before exports can meaningfully increase, Venezuela will need to import substantial volumes of diluent (such as naphtha or natural gasoline) to transport its heavy crude through pipelines. Targa Resources, operator of the Galena Park Marine Terminal in Houston—a major LPG and naphtha export hub—would be a natural beneficiary if Venezuela pivots back to U.S. diluent supplies, replacing current inflows from Iran.
The clearest corporate beneficiary of regime change and nation-building in Venezuela is Chevron (NYSE: CVX). Unlike other U.S. energy majors that exited the country, Chevron has maintained an on-the-ground presence. It retains the workforce, regulatory approvals (through OFAC), and operational assets—most notably Petroboscan and Petropiar—that position it to scale up production quickly. Exxon Mobil (NYSE: XOM) and ConocoPhillips (NYSE: COP), both of which hold legacy claims and arbitration awards stemming from past expropriations, could also regain market access or pursue compensation under a revised legal and political framework.
Refiners along the U.S. Gulf Coast—such as Valero Energy (NYSE: VLO), Phillips 66 (NYSE: PSX), and Marathon Petroleum (NYSE: MPC)—were purpose-built to handle heavy, sour crude like that produced in Venezuela. Since the imposition of sanctions, these companies have had to rely on costlier substitute feedstocks. A resumption of Venezuelan supply would reduce input costs and support refining margins, assuming end-product demand remains stable.
At the sector level, a significant increase in Venezuelan output would likely weigh on oil prices, which would be negative for crude producers but positive for consumer-oriented equities. Lower energy prices are inherently deflationary and could translate into lower bond yields—conditions that are generally supportive of risk assets, all else equal.
Note: This section is for analytical purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
Venezuela: What Comes Next for the Economy and Markets?
In a characteristically Trump-like approach, President Trump initially stated that the United States would “administer” Venezuela during the transition period. U.S. officials later confirmed that approximately 15,000 troops would remain stationed in the Caribbean, with the option of further intervention if the interim authorities in Caracas failed to comply with Washington’s demands.
Venezuela’s Supreme Court subsequently named Vice President Delcy Rodríguez as interim president. A close ally of Maduro since 2018, Rodríguez previously oversaw much of the oil-dependent economy and the country’s intelligence structures, placing her firmly within the existing power framework. She signaled a willingness “to cooperate” with the Trump administration, hinting at a potentially dramatic reset in relations between the two long-hostile governments.
International observers, including the United Nations and the Carter Center, have concluded that Venezuela’s 2024 elections lacked legitimacy and fell short of international standards. Independently verified tally sheets reviewed by analysts indicated that opposition candidate Edmundo González secured around 67% of the vote, compared with roughly 30% for Maduro.
At the same time, María Corina Machado—Nobel Peace Prize laureate and a leading figure in Venezuela’s opposition—is expected to return to the country later this month and has said the opposition is ready to take power. President Trump, however, has publicly cast doubt on the breadth of her support among the Venezuelan population.
In this context, three potential scenarios appear likely, as outlined by Gavekal Research:
“Soft” Military Rule
In the near term, the most probable outcome is the continuation of the current power structure under Rodríguez and the armed forces. For this arrangement to endure, it would likely require a pragmatic shift toward U.S. priorities—embracing a more business-friendly approach and loosening ties with traditional partners such as Russia, China, and Iran. Washington may be willing to accept this scenario if it ensures political stability and reliable access to energy supplies.
Democratic Transition
A negotiated move toward civilian governance would hinge largely on how new elections are structured. Allowing participation from the Venezuelan diaspora could significantly reshape the results, whereas restricting voting to residents inside the country would be more likely to benefit factions linked to the existing regime.
“Libya Redux” (State Breakdown)
The most destabilizing scenario would involve the collapse of central authority, triggering internal military conflict and the proliferation of armed groups. Such an outcome would heighten the risk of civil strife, renewed migration pressures, and severe disruptions to oil production and global energy markets.
Ethereum demonstrates strength with solid weekly and monthly gains, even as futures positions cool down.
Gold is projected to hit new highs in 2026, driven by declining interest rates, central bank purchases, and geopolitical uncertainties.
Good morning, Asia! Here’s what’s moving the markets today:
Crypto markets kick off the year in a phase of adjustment rather than decline, with Bitcoin holding steady above $90,000 and Ether showing renewed strength as institutions reset their positions.
As Hong Kong opened its Wednesday trading session, Bitcoin dipped slightly in the short term but stayed within a range after surpassing the key $90,000 mark.
“With stocks, gold, and other precious metals at record highs, we view the situation as a tug-of-war between prices correcting upward to align with these assets and potentially declining over the coming months to follow the 4-year cycle,” said George Mandres, crypto analyst at trading firm XBTO, in a note to CoinDesk. He added that the latter scenario “can quickly become a self-fulfilling prophecy.”
So far, neither upward nor downward pressure has taken control of Bitcoin’s price. Rather than a steep correction, Bitcoin has traded sideways, indicating a phase of digestion rather than distribution. Mandres highlighted the calendar effect as a key factor distinguishing the current situation from late 2025.
“What’s changed now compared to a few weeks ago, aside from Bitcoin surpassing $90K, is that a new year has begun, resetting P&Ls to zero, and investors are looking to allocate capital to attractive risk/reward opportunities,” he explained.
Ethereum presents a slightly different picture. Although ETH has outperformed Bitcoin over weekly and monthly periods, futures data show that positioning has cooled.
Bradley Park, founder of DNTV Research, noted that CME Ethereum futures open interest provides valuable insight beyond spot price movements.
“Increasing open interest has largely reflected institutional activity through DAT-style ETF arbitrage trades, while declining open interest signals unwinding positions,” Park said in a note to CoinDesk.
That unwinding now seems well underway.
“The recent pullback looks less like a structural shift and more like a loss of momentum, with positioning resetting to roughly July 2025 levels,” Park added.
Crucially, this reset has not triggered a sharp spot market sell-off.
A recent Glassnode report echoes this theme across assets. Options markets have de-risked significantly, with contracting open interest and rising volatility expectations. Meanwhile, U.S. spot ETF flows have returned to net inflows, indicating renewed institutional demand but also greater sensitivity to near-term profit-taking.
Overall, these signals suggest consolidation and rotation rather than a widespread risk-off selloff. Bitcoin is balancing conflicting macro factors without losing its trend, while Ethereum appears less crowded and better positioned to benefit if institutional flows pick up again.
Market Movement:
BTC: Bitcoin is consolidating above $90,000, trading sideways after a recent rise. The price action reflects balance between macro support and caution from the market cycle, rather than fresh selling pressure.
ETH: Ether is hovering around $3,247, showing slight declines on short-term charts but maintaining strong gains over weekly and monthly periods, demonstrating resilience despite a recent pullback in futures positioning.
Gold: Following a nearly 65% rally in 2025, gold is expected to reach new highs in 2026, driven by falling interest rates, ongoing central bank purchases, and geopolitical uncertainties.
Nikkei 225: Japan’s Nikkei 225 dropped 0.45% on Wednesday as Asia-Pacific markets showed mixed results. Meanwhile, Australia’s ASX 200 gained 0.38% after inflation data came in below expectations.
Dogecoin rose another 2% following a 4% rebound on Sunday, marking its fifth consecutive day of gains.
Shiba Inu paused after surging nearly 12% on Sunday, having broken out of a falling channel formation.
Pepe is approaching its 200-day EMA, with bulls eyeing a breakout after a 77% rally over the past four days.
Meme coins including Dogecoin (DOGE), Shiba Inu (SHIB), and Pepe (PEPE) are leading the broader crypto market rally, fueled by the U.S. cross-border operation to detain Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro. Dogecoin has extended its advance for a fifth straight session, while SHIB and PEPE are taking a brief pause. Despite this consolidation, the technical outlook for the major meme coins remains bullish.
Venezuela is reportedly shifting from the petrodollar to cryptocurrencies like Tether’s USDT stablecoin to settle crude oil sales, with an estimated value between $10 billion and $15 billion. It’s believed that Maduro converted USDT into Bitcoin (BTC) to prevent his wallet from being frozen.
Along with a $2 billion gold-for-Bitcoin swap conducted between 2018 and 2020 and the seizure of BTC mining assets, Venezuela’s shadow reserve is estimated to hold around 600,000 BTC.
If the US Strategic Bitcoin Reserve seizes or absorbs Venezuela’s BTC holdings, it would effectively reduce Bitcoin’s available supply, potentially triggering a surge in demand. The current market recovery appears to reflect anticipation of this possible supply constraint.
Dogecoin Gains Bullish Momentum Above $0.15
Dogecoin rose 2% on Monday, building on Sunday’s 4% gain. The dog-themed meme coin has surpassed its 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $0.14339 and is trading above the key $0.15 level.
This recovery follows a breakout rally from a descending wedge pattern on the daily logarithmic chart. The next target for Dogecoin is the 200-day EMA at $0.18202, which aligns with a resistance zone between $0.18100 and $0.18500.
Momentum indicators show strong buying pressure: the Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 65, leaving room before overbought territory, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) continues to climb with green histogram bars, signaling growing bullish momentum.
If DOGE slips below the key support near $0.14399, it could negate the recent breakout and expose the meme coin to further downside pressure, potentially testing the next psychological floor around $0.13 or lower. Technical breakdowns below critical support often increase the risk of deeper corrections, as previous analyses have shown DOGE facing renewed bearish momentum if it fails to hold near support levels.
Shiba Inu Pauses After Four-Day Rally, Holding Above 50-Day EMA
Shiba Inu surged nearly 12% on Sunday, breaking above the resistance trendline formed by the October 13 and November 11 highs. As of Monday, SHIB has pulled back slightly, down over 1%.
If the recovery continues, Shiba Inu could target the 200-day EMA at $0.00001065.
Similar to Dogecoin, daily momentum indicators show strong bullish momentum for SHIB. The RSI stands at 65, approaching the overbought zone, while the MACD has crossed above the zero line with increasing green histogram bars, signaling growing upward momentum.
On the downside, if SHIB falls below the 50-day EMA at $0.00000821, it would invalidate the recent breakout, potentially exposing the coin to a drop toward the October 10 low of $0.00000678.
Pepe Eyes Breakout Above 200-Day EMA
Pepe slipped nearly 2% on Monday after soaring almost 18% on Sunday, pausing its four-day rally that has surged over 77%. This pullback reflects resistance near the 200-day EMA at $0.00000749.
If PEPE breaks above this level, the rally could extend toward the September 25 low at $0.00000886.
The RSI stands at 79, indicating overbought conditions and potentially unsustainable buying pressure. However, the rising MACD suggests continued bullish momentum.
On the downside, a potential reversal in PEPE may test the former resistance, now support zone, around $0.00000650.
The entire crypto market, tracking over 18,000 tokens across centralized and decentralized exchanges, is currently valued at nearly $3 trillion. This represents a 31% decline from the all-time high of $4.37 trillion recorded in early October, just before the recent crypto market crash.
Bitcoin, the largest cryptocurrency by market cap, is hovering around $88,000, accounting for more than half of the total market value at $1.77 trillion. Despite its dominant position, Bitcoin is poised to end the year with a negative annual return.
Since 2012, this marks the fourth year Bitcoin has underperformed, albeit by a significantly smaller margin compared to previous down years. For context, Bitcoin’s annual losses were -50.2% in 2014, -72.1% in 2018, and -62% in 2022. If Bitcoin maintains its current price level near $88,000, its annual underperformance in 2025 would be the “best of the worst” at around -6%.
Compared to Bitcoin, traditional asset classes like stocks and gold/silver have delivered substantially better returns this year on average. This contrast raises important questions about crypto’s position and outlook heading into 2026.
Is the Crypto Market Mature Enough for Significant Exposure?
The core purpose of the blockchain ecosystem is to transform the traditional money system through trustless finance. In simple terms, it leverages advances in cryptography combined with a full software stack to make transacting value as seamless as sending a message on an app.
While online banking and payment processors like PayPal have long provided similar convenience, the blockchain ecosystem offers a fundamental overhaul. Instead of relying on a single intermediary that acts as a bottleneck, automated smart contracts on an immutable ledger—the blockchain—execute all value transfers autonomously.
This decentralized approach eliminates single points of failure, increases transparency, and enhances security, paving the way for a new era of financial innovation.
This newly reinvented financial system—decentralized finance (DeFi)—has shown tremendous promise. Its total value locked (TVL) skyrocketed from $600 million in 2020 to $176 billion by late 2021, marking an astonishing growth of over 29,000%. Such rapid expansion is a clear indicator of a nascent industry emerging.
However, following the FTX collapse in late 2022 and a wave of bankruptcies among overleveraged crypto ventures, DeFi’s TVL has stabilized around $50 billion for the past two years. It was only after President Trump’s second term and the removal of the previously antagonistic SEC Chair Gary Gensler that DeFi began to recover, reaching approximately $168 billion TVL in early October.
Looking at this entire period from 2020 to now, several key conclusions emerge:
Without active institutional and legislative support, blockchain finance risks remaining confined to the enthusiast fringe. Like many cultural phenomena, mass adoption tends to be top-down driven, as exemplified by Elon Musk’s influence on Dogecoin’s surge.
One major hurdle to crypto’s wider adoption is the inflation of new tokens, which fuels recurring boom-and-bust cycles. This token oversupply undermines investor attention, market legitimacy, and overall capital efficiency.
The current ecosystem—where tokens are staked to earn more tokens in a closed-loop, casino-like economy—must give way to real utility derived from external value rather than internal dilution.
Moreover, Web3 crypto usage remains far from user-friendly and secure, with frequent incidents like bridge hacks and wallet incompatibility. According to Chainalysis, over $3.4 billion in crypto funds were stolen in 2025 alone. Ideally, blockchain finance should be so seamless that users are unaware they’re interacting with decentralized technology.
Notably, the market rally following the removal of SEC Chair Gary Gensler signals that blockchain’s underlying value hinges on how well it integrates with the broader, compliance-driven economy. As such, 2026 is shaping up to be a pivotal year for crypto’s maturity and mainstream acceptance.
Bitcoin and Stablecoin-Based Institutional Integration: The 2026 Catalyst
While DeFi protocols sought to establish dominance, new intermediaries such as foundations, early adopters, venture capitalists, and miners quickly asserted control. Despite the promise of decentralization, the ease of creating new tokens generated persistent dilution pressure across the crypto ecosystem.
Bitcoin, however, avoided this recursive dilution trap by imposing a physical energy barrier through its proof-of-work algorithm. This barrier limits token creation ex-nihilo, allowing Bitcoin’s network effect to remain robust. Following the October market crash, Bitcoin’s mining difficulty held steady, even increasing before stabilizing at pre-crash levels as the price hovered around $88,000 towards year-end.
Amid rising inflation fears, geopolitical tensions, and trade conflicts, gold and silver have regained their status as trusted hedges. Nevertheless, Bitcoin’s deterministic scarcity and digital-native nature position it uniquely for the modern economy, contrasting with gold’s pseudoscarcity.
Although many financial institutions underestimated Bitcoin’s 2025 price — with forecasts from Standard Chartered ($200k), VanEck ($180k), JPMorgan ($165k), Bernstein ($200k), and Fundstrat ($250k) — these projections may be delayed signals for 2026. As of early December, JPMorgan analysts suggested Bitcoin could reach $170k in 2026, assuming it begins to trade similarly to gold.
Moreover, recent research from K33 indicates that selling pressure from long-term holders (LTH) is nearing exhaustion. If this holds true, Bitcoin is poised to lead a renewed altcoin market rally in 2026, but with some notable distinctions:
The full implementation of the EU’s Markets in Crypto-Assets (MiCA) regulation will channel the majority of European crypto trading volume into regulated entities, while simultaneously triggering a flight of activity to less restrictive jurisdictions.
Meanwhile, tokenized stocks are poised for wider adoption as the US clears key regulatory hurdles. Notably, SEC Chair Paul Atkins issued a no-action letter to the Depository Trust Company (DTC) to facilitate the rollout of tokenized securities. However, offerings from platforms like Robinhood, Kraken, and Dinari remain heavily geo-restricted.
As the EU seeks to curb USD-based stablecoin flows—evidenced by Kraken’s fiat-only tokenized stock trading—the US stands to gain renewed competitive advantage.
Institutional oversight in the US is becoming increasingly crypto-friendly, likely aiming to solidify USD dominance via stablecoins. For example, the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision (BCBS) is revising its rules on banks’ exposure to cryptocurrencies. Together with more accommodating regulators such as the FDIC and OCC, it is now highly likely that US banks will hold cryptocurrencies in 2026.
Following the passage of the GENIUS Act, stablecoin flows are expected to significantly boost the broader crypto market. On one side, Circle’s upcoming Arc blockchain—backed by Blackrock, Visa, and Amazon—will support institutional stablecoin settlements. On the other, stablecoins are rapidly becoming the primary consumer-facing crypto product.
While MiCA’s vague definition of “decentralization on a spectrum” may hinder true DeFi innovation, it nonetheless accelerates capital formation around compliant crypto primitives.
The Bottom Line
Since 2020, the crypto ecosystem has created transformative wealth but also faced setbacks due to excessive experimentation. The strict regulatory stance under SEC Chair Gary Gensler cooled early enthusiasm, turning much of crypto activity into speculative trading rather than real financial innovation.
Following President Trump’s SEC repeal of SAB 121, crypto entered a new phase of integration under traditional finance (TradFi) rules. Despite macroeconomic and geopolitical headwinds, crypto moves into 2026 on its most stable footing yet.
Unlike prior cycles dominated by retail sentiment, institutional investors — pension funds, insurers, and endowments — are expected to reduce volatility through spot ETFs and altcoin trusts on high-performance chains like Solana and Sui.
The rise of Real World Assets (RWA) will foster a unified liquidity layer, linking tokenized stocks, RWAs, and TradFi blockchain networks with DeFi protocols. In this emerging hybrid finance, stablecoins will be the backbone, enabling DeFi’s transformation into a regulated, compliant capital market.
Bitcoin traded steadily on Tuesday, as a pickup in risk appetite lent support to the world’s largest cryptocurrency early in 2026, though renewed concerns surrounding treasury-focused firms limited further upside.
On Monday, Strategy Inc. (NASDAQ: MSTR), the largest corporate holder of Bitcoin, reported a significantly larger unrealized loss on its digital assets for the fourth quarter, reflecting the decline in the value of its holdings throughout 2025.
The broader crypto market also edged higher alongside Bitcoin, but gains generally lagged those seen in other risk-oriented sectors, particularly technology stocks.
Market sentiment improved as investors looked past the initial shock of a U.S. military action in Venezuela, which resulted in the capture of President Nicolás Maduro. Attention has now turned to Washington’s next steps for the region.
Bitcoin rose 1.3% to $93,576.7 at 00:59 ET (05:59 GMT), though it remained down more than 6% for 2025.
Saylor’s Strategy reports $17.44B unrealized loss in Q4
Michael Saylor’s Strategy announced on Monday night that it recorded a substantial $17.44 billion in unrealized losses for the fourth quarter of 2025, largely due to a decline in the value of Bitcoin, its largest asset.
A directly comparable figure for the fourth quarter of 2024 was unavailable, although the company had reported a net loss of $670.8 million in Q4 2024. Last year, Strategy adopted new accounting rules requiring it to mark its Bitcoin holdings to fair value in its earnings—a change that has led to significant swings in quarterly results.
The company’s shares, which function as a Bitcoin proxy, fell nearly 50% in 2025 as investors grew increasingly skeptical about the long-term viability of its crypto accumulation strategy. A prolonged downturn in Bitcoin prices, along with Strategy’s exclusion from a major U.S. stock index, further weighed on market sentiment.
The steep decline in Strategy’s share price has also raised concerns that the firm could be forced to liquidate part of its Bitcoin holdings to meet future debt and shareholder commitments—an outcome that could trigger substantial selling pressure on Bitcoin itself.
Altcoins climb as XRP leads gains
The broader crypto market traded mostly in positive territory in line with Bitcoin, with XRP outperforming the rest.
XRP jumped 12% amid stronger capital inflows into spot exchange-traded funds, while supplies of the token were also seen shrinking on major exchanges.
The world’s second-largest cryptocurrency, Ether, gained 2% to $3,220.24, while BNB advanced 0.6%.
Solana and Cardano rose by 2.5% and 5.5%, respectively.
In the memecoin space, Dogecoin added 0.4%, while $TRUMP climbed 2.6%.
THE ETERNAL SOVEREIGN 