THE ETERNAL SOVEREIGN

Tag: Xau/Usd

  • Gold bucks historical patterns as extreme overbought conditions fail to spark a pullback

    Gold continues to power higher like an unstoppable juggernaut, defying decades of historical precedent. After nearly tripling in just a couple of years, the metal has maintained relentless upside momentum — even as extreme overbought readings that historically triggered sharp corrections have repeatedly failed to spark a meaningful selloff.

    The term “juggernaut” itself originates from the Hindu deity Jagannath, whose towering chariots are pulled during India’s Ratha Yatra festival — massive, nearly unstoppable structures once said to crush anything in their path. Gold’s current advance resembles that kind of force: powerful, slow-moving, and extraordinarily difficult to halt.

    Defying half a century of cyclical behavior

    Since the U.S. abandoned the gold standard in August 1971, gold has moved in well-defined cycles. Over the past 55 years, dollar-denominated gold has recorded:

    • 32 cyclical bull markets with gains exceeding 20%
    • 11 additional uplegs of more than 10%
    • 17 cyclical bear markets with losses over 20%
    • 24 corrections of at least 10%

    These alternating cycles make trading possible — buying low and selling high depends on gold’s historical tendency to mean-revert after extreme moves.

    Yet the latest bull market has shattered prior benchmarks. From early October 2023 to late January 2026, gold surged an unprecedented 196.4% over 27.8 months — the largest cyclical bull on record. For comparison, the famed January 1980 surge gained 127.9% in just 2.6 months.

    By late January 2026, gold reached one of its most overbought levels ever, trading 43.4% above its 200-day moving average — its most extreme reading since March 1980. Historically, such conditions have reliably preceded fast and deep corrections.

    Indeed, gold briefly cracked — plunging 10.3% in a single session, its third-worst daily drop since 1971, followed by a 13.3% correction over two days. Based on historical patterns, such extremes have typically led to average declines of roughly 20% over the next two months.

    But this time has been different.

    A historically rare rebound

    Instead of cascading lower, gold rebounded swiftly, recovering more than three-quarters of its two-day plunge and returning to within 3% of its record high. Rather than a full correction, the move increasingly resembles a high consolidation — a sideways digestion of gains rather than a deep retracement.

    That possibility challenges over five decades of precedent.

    Market history teaches adaptability. As economist John Maynard Keynes famously observed, “When the facts change, I change my mind.” While history strongly argues for a larger correction, gold’s recent behavior suggests underlying structural demand may be altering the cycle’s dynamics.

    A structural shift in demand

    Unlike earlier gold bull markets driven primarily by U.S. investors and futures speculation, this surge has been powered heavily by:

    • Chinese and Indian investment and jewelry demand
    • Strong central bank accumulation
    • Reduced reliance on American speculative flows

    That steady international buying appears to have smoothed volatility. Remarkably, from October 2023 to January 2026, gold did not experience a single correction exceeding 10% — an extraordinary deviation from historical norms.

    During that stretch, gold reached extreme overbought conditions four separate times that typically would have required sharp pullbacks. Instead, it consolidated sideways, allowing technical excesses to normalize gradually rather than through panic selling.

    Overbought — but not breaking

    One widely used metric, “Relative Gold” (rGold), measures gold’s price relative to its 200-day moving average. Over the past five years, extreme overbought readings began near 1.18x that average. In January 2026, gold far exceeded that threshold — yet still refused to unravel.

    If gold successfully transitions from its most powerful cyclical bull ever into yet another high consolidation rather than a major bear phase, it would mark the fifth such episode in recent years — an extraordinary break from long-term statistical norms.

    For traders expecting mean reversion, that presents real danger. Betting against momentum in a structurally supported market can be like stepping in front of a moving chariot.

    Gold may still correct — history suggests it eventually will. But for now, extreme overbought conditions alone have proven insufficient to halt this advance.

    Gold’s refusal to break down from extreme overbought levels has now evolved into something historically extraordinary. What began as a powerful cyclical bull has repeatedly transitioned not into sharp corrections — as five decades of precedent would suggest — but into a series of high consolidations that preserved momentum and reset sentiment without deep damage.

    Four prior high consolidations — and counting?

    The first extreme-overbought episode of this monster bull emerged in mid-April 2024, when gold closed at 1.188x its 200-day moving average (200dma). That followed a 31.2% surge in just 6.4 months. Historically, that setup demanded a sharp correction. Instead, gold drifted sideways for 3.8 months, correcting only 5.7% at worst. During that span, rGold averaged 1.127x — elevated, but nowhere near oversold territory (which historically begins below 0.93x).

    The second episode arrived in late October 2024, when gold again pierced extreme territory at 1.183x its 200dma, with gains reaching 53.1% over 12.9 months. Rather than collapse, gold entered another sideways drift lasting 3.0 months. The maximum pullback was 8.0%, and average rGold readings remained lofty at 1.090x.

    By mid-April 2025, the bull extended to 88.0% gains, and gold reached 1.266x its 200dma — the most overbought level in 13.7 years. In prior cycles, similar extremes triggered double-digit selloffs. Instead, gold carved out a third high consolidation lasting 4.2 months. Even during that stretch, gold averaged 15.3% above its 200dma — remarkably elevated.

    The fourth episode followed gold’s surge to 139.1% gains by mid-October 2025, when rGold hit 1.330x — the most extreme since 2006. An initial 9.5% drop threatened to spiral into a full correction, but aggressive Chinese buying — particularly into Mondays when Asian trading dominates price discovery — arrested the decline. That consolidation lasted just 2.0 months, the shortest yet, with rGold still averaging 1.211x.

    The January 2026 blowoff — and defiance

    Then came the mania phase. In just five weeks into late January 2026, gold surged another 24.3%, extending total gains to 196.4% over 27.8 months — the largest cyclical bull in modern history. rGold spiked to an astonishing 1.434x, the most overbought reading in 45.9 years.

    History strongly suggested a fast 20%+ cyclical bear was imminent.

    Gold did plunge 13.3% over two sessions, formally ending the bull. But once again, heavy Chinese demand — amplified by Lunar New Year buying — helped prices rebound rapidly. Rather than cascading lower, gold began what may be its fifth high consolidation from extreme levels.

    As of midweek, that consolidation was just 0.9 months old, with average rGold near 1.298x — far above the 1.145x average of the prior four consolidations. By historical standards, that remains dangerously elevated and leaves meaningful downside risk intact.

    Seasonal and structural considerations

    Chinese demand has been the defining structural shift of this cycle. Unlike earlier bulls driven primarily by U.S. futures traders and Western investors, recent gains have been heavily supported by Chinese investors, jewelry buyers, and central bank accumulation. That steady buying pressure has dampened volatility and truncated corrections.

    However, seasonality matters. Gold demand in China typically peaks into Lunar New Year and softens from late February into mid-March — historically one of gold’s weakest seasonal windows. A minimum six-week sideways period following a major peak is generally required to sufficiently reduce the odds of a serious correction. Gold is only about halfway through that threshold.

    If prices can hold into mid-March, the typical spring rally — which has averaged about 4.3% gains during bull years over the past quarter century — could provide renewed upside momentum.

    Risks remain asymmetric

    Despite the juggernaut narrative, risks remain substantial. Gold has demonstrated it can drop 5%–10% in a single day when sentiment shifts. And gold miners amplify gold’s moves significantly: historically 2x to 3x. A 10% gold correction could translate into 20%–30% declines in miners; a 20% bear phase could mean 40%–60% drawdowns in gold equities.

    Bottom line

    Gold’s momentum continues to defy half a century of precedent. Extreme overbought conditions that once reliably triggered swift corrections have instead produced high consolidations — a structural shift likely driven by persistent Chinese demand and global diversification flows.

    But while this fifth potential consolidation may ultimately prove successful, it remains young and statistically vulnerable. The juggernaut rolls on — yet markets can reverse suddenly.

    Caution, patience, and adaptability remain essential.

    Sources: Adam Hamilton

  • Gold prices advanced, with spot gold on track to post a monthly gain of more than 8%.

    Gold prices rose on Friday and were on track for robust gains in February, supported by safe-haven demand amid mounting geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainty.

    As of 16:33 ET (21:33 GMT), spot gold climbed 1.5% to $5,261.81 an ounce, while April gold futures gained 1.7% to $5,280.26/oz. Spot prices were up more than 8% for the month, rebounding sharply from early-February lows near $4,404.12/oz after a brief speculative pullback.

    Gold heads for strong February gains

    Escalating tensions between the U.S. and Iran were a major catalyst for gold’s recovery, after Washington increased its military presence in the Middle East and warned of possible action if Tehran rejected a nuclear agreement. Although recent talks ended without a deal, both sides agreed to continue negotiations, offering some cautious optimism.

    Economic uncertainty in the U.S. also buoyed bullion, particularly after the Supreme Court of the United States struck down most of President Donald Trump’s trade tariffs. Trump subsequently announced new levies under a different legal framework and signaled further measures, keeping markets wary of additional economic disruption.

    A broader equity sell-off, partly driven by shifting sentiment around artificial intelligence stocks, further increased gold’s appeal. Joseph Cavatoni of the World Gold Council noted that investors tend to raise gold allocations during periods of equity weakness, pointing to rising physical demand and stronger ETF inflows, particularly in the Americas and Asia. He added that uncertainty around tariffs, inflation, real yields, and overall economic policy continues to exert upward pressure on gold prices.

    Bernstein raises long-term gold forecast

    Brokerage firm AllianceBernstein significantly upgraded its long-term gold outlook, citing sustained institutional demand and supportive macroeconomic trends. The firm now projects gold reaching $4,800 per ounce in 2026 and climbing to $6,100 by 2030.

    Analyst Bob Brackett emphasized that central bank purchases and ETF flows have been the primary drivers of recent demand. While central bank buying may moderate in 2025, it remains well above pre-2022 levels. Surveys indicate that 95% of central banks expect global gold reserves to rise over the next year, with 73% anticipating a reduced share of U.S. dollar holdings over the next five years. ETF flows, meanwhile, are seen as a key swing factor that can amplify price momentum when inflows accelerate.

    Copper supported by China demand outlook

    Other precious metals also posted strong February gains. Spot silver surged 6.3% to $93.8490/oz, up nearly 11% for the month, while platinum rose 6.2% to $2,379.10/oz, marking a more than 12% monthly increase.

    In industrial metals, copper edged higher on Friday and was modestly positive for February, as markets looked for further signals from China, the world’s largest copper importer. COMEX copper futures rose 1% to $6.0663 per pound, up more than 1% this month.

    Copper’s relatively subdued performance earlier in February reflected reduced activity during China’s Lunar New Year holiday, when mainland markets were closed for over a week. Analysts at ANZ noted that both Chinese and global copper inventories increased more than expected during the break due to mining and trade disruptions. With Chinese markets now reopened, attention has shifted back to potential demand growth, particularly as the global artificial intelligence buildout accelerates.

    Sources: Anuron Mitra

  • Markets in focus: Nvidia, Salesforce results and U.S.–Iran nuclear negotiations

    Futures tied to the main U.S. stock benchmarks edged lower as investors focused on key earnings from the technology sector. Nvidia, a heavyweight in the U.S. equity market, delivered stronger-than-expected results, though investors are seeking clearer guidance on when its substantial cash flow will translate into greater shareholder returns. Salesforce shares declined after issuing a softer revenue outlook. Meanwhile, oil prices held steady ahead of crucial nuclear negotiations between U.S. and Iranian officials.

    Futures Edge Lower

    U.S. equity futures moved down Thursday as markets digested earnings from AI leader Nvidia.

    As of 03:05 ET (08:05 GMT), Dow futures were down 122 points, or 0.3%, S&P 500 futures slipped 0.1%, and Nasdaq 100 futures also fell 0.1%. This followed gains across all major Wall Street indices in the previous session, when investors positioned ahead of Nvidia’s earnings release.

    Sentiment had improved on renewed optimism surrounding artificial intelligence, marking another shift in what has been a volatile narrative around the emerging technology. The Nasdaq led prior gains as investors regained confidence that AI could eventually deliver broad economic benefits — contrasting with earlier concerns that new AI models might disrupt software firms and limit returns on heavy data center spending.

    Remarks from Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin also supported equities, as he noted uncertainty over whether automation would significantly raise unemployment and suggested AI could instead improve labor market efficiency.

    Nvidia Little Changed Despite Strong Results

    Nvidia reported better-than-expected earnings for the January quarter and issued revenue guidance above forecasts for the current period, yet its shares were mostly flat in after-hours trading.

    Some investors questioned whether the chipmaker is returning sufficient capital to shareholders. Yvette Schmitter, CEO of Fusion Collective, pointed out that while Nvidia generated $35 billion in cash during the fourth quarter, it returned just 12% to shareholders — sharply lower than 52% a year earlier.

    She also raised concerns about reduced buybacks despite record cash generation, especially as Nvidia highlights strong demand for its sold-out Ampere chips.

    These concerns echoed questions raised during the company’s earnings call, including from a UBS analyst who asked whether Nvidia plans to distribute more of the anticipated $100 billion in cash expected this year. CFO Colette Kress emphasized ongoing investment in the broader AI ecosystem, while CEO Jensen Huang underscored AI’s foundational role in the future of computing.

    Salesforce Drops on Soft Revenue Outlook

    Salesforce shares fell in extended trading after the company issued fiscal 2027 revenue guidance below Wall Street expectations, suggesting softer demand for enterprise software amid economic uncertainty and tighter corporate budgets.

    The company projected full-year revenue between $45.80 billion and $46.20 billion, slightly below consensus estimates at the midpoint.

    Salesforce continues to invest heavily in artificial intelligence to counter investor concerns that emerging AI models, such as those developed by startups like Anthropic, could erode demand. These pressures have contributed to stock volatility as the company works to defend its position within the software-as-a-service industry.

    However, Salesforce raised its fiscal 2030 revenue forecast to $63 billion from $60 billion, citing expected growth from agentic AI offerings. Analysts at Vital Knowledge described the report as not flawless but “good enough,” highlighting strong AI product momentum, stable core performance, and solid cash flow generation.

    Oil Steady Before U.S.- Iran Talks

    Oil prices were largely unchanged Thursday, remaining near seven-month highs as markets prepared for a third round of nuclear discussions between Washington and Tehran.

    Brent crude gained 0.2% to $70.84 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate rose 0.2% to $65.62 per barrel.

    U.S. representatives, including special envoy Steve Witkoff and adviser Jared Kushner, are scheduled to meet Iranian officials in Geneva as negotiations continue over Iran’s nuclear program. President Donald Trump has warned that failure to make meaningful progress could lead to serious consequences, raising concerns that prolonged tensions may disrupt supply from Iran, a key OPEC producer.

    Gold Edges Higher

    Gold prices ticked up as uncertainty surrounding U.S. trade tariffs bolstered safe-haven demand, with investors also monitoring developments in the U.S.-Iran nuclear talks.

    Spot gold rose 0.6% to $5,196.55 per ounce, while U.S. gold futures dipped 0.5% to $5,200.54 per ounce.

    Markets are also evaluating the implications of newly announced U.S. tariffs following a Supreme Court ruling that struck down President Trump’s sweeping reciprocal tariff measures. Attention now turns to upcoming U.S. economic data, including weekly jobless claims. So far this year, gold has remained supported by geopolitical tensions, central bank buying, and portfolio diversification trends.

    Sources: Scott Kano

  • Gold gains on tariff jitters; oil steadies near seven-month highs before United States–Iran talks.

    Gold price

    Gold edged higher in Asian trading on Wednesday, recovering slightly after the prior session’s pullback driven by profit-taking, as markets weighed the effects of newly enacted U.S. tariffs and looked ahead to upcoming U.S.–Iran negotiations later this week.

    Spot gold climbed 0.8% to $5,184.55 per ounce as of 21:08 ET (02:08 GMT), while U.S. gold futures advanced 0.5% to $5,203.10 an ounce. The metal had dropped 1.6% on Tuesday, ending a four-day winning streak.

    On Tuesday, the U.S. began enforcing a temporary 10% blanket import tariff, with the Trump administration aiming to raise it to 15%. The move has heightened concerns about global trade disruptions and inflationary pressures. This action came after a U.S. Supreme Court decision last week invalidated earlier broad tariffs introduced under emergency powers, prompting the government to reinstate duties using alternative legal grounds.

    Investors also monitored geopolitical developments, as Washington and Tehran are scheduled to hold a third round of nuclear discussions in Geneva on Thursday.

    Despite the rebound, gold’s upside remained limited amid expectations that U.S. interest rates will stay higher for longer. Two Federal Reserve officials indicated on Tuesday that there is little urgency to adjust monetary policy, reinforcing a rate outlook that tends to weigh on non-yielding assets like gold.

    Additional pressure came from a firmer U.S. dollar, which makes commodities priced in dollars more expensive for foreign buyers. The U.S. Dollar Index was broadly unchanged after rising 0.1% in the previous session.

    Among other precious metals, silver gained 1.6% to $88.59 per ounce, while platinum surged 2.3% to $2,224.60 an ounce.

    Oil price

    Oil prices stayed close to seven-month peaks on Wednesday, as fears of potential U.S.–Iran military confrontation that could disrupt crude supplies kept investors cautious ahead of fresh talks scheduled for Thursday.

    Brent crude rose 43 cents, or 0.6%, to $71.20 per barrel by 0400 GMT, while WTI gained 38 cents, or 0.6%, to $66.01. Brent touched its highest level since July 31 last week, and WTI reached its strongest point since August 4 earlier this week. Both benchmarks have remained elevated as Washington deployed additional military assets to the Middle East in an effort to pressure Tehran into negotiations over its nuclear and ballistic missile programs.

    A prolonged conflict could threaten exports from Iran—the third-largest producer within Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries—as well as other key producers in the region. Analysts at ING noted that persistent uncertainty is likely to keep a significant geopolitical risk premium embedded in prices, leaving markets highly responsive to new developments.

    U.S. representatives Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner are expected to meet Iranian officials in Geneva on Thursday for a third round of negotiations. Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi said a deal is achievable, provided diplomacy takes precedence. Meanwhile, Donald Trump has warned of “very bad consequences” if no agreement is reached, with uncertainty remaining over whether Iran’s potential concessions would satisfy Washington’s demand for zero uranium enrichment, according to IG analyst Tony Sycamore.

    Heightened tensions have also coincided with reports that Iran and China are advancing discussions over the purchase of Chinese anti-ship cruise missiles, which could pose a threat to U.S. naval forces stationed near Iran’s coastline. Experts say such weapons would significantly bolster Tehran’s strike capabilities.

    Trump is set to address Congress in his State of the Union speech on Tuesday evening, where he is expected to outline his Iran strategy, though specific details have not been disclosed.

    Beyond geopolitics, traders are monitoring supply-demand dynamics. The American Petroleum Institute reportedly showed a sharp 11.43-million-barrel increase in U.S. crude inventories for the week ended February 20, even as gasoline and distillate stocks declined. Official data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration is due later Wednesday.

  • Gold slips but stays resilient above $5,140 support

    Gold is consolidating after climbing to a monthly peak of $5,250 during Tuesday’s Asian session. The U.S. dollar is attracting renewed demand as liquidity improves and risk appetite stabilizes, even as uncertainty surrounding U.S. tariffs persists.

    Despite the pullback, bullion is holding above the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at $5,142, which is now acting as key support. Meanwhile, the daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) continues to signal bullish momentum, suggesting the broader uptrend remains intact for now.

    XAU/USD Technical Overview

    The 21-day Simple Moving Average has climbed above the 50-, 100-, and 200-day averages, and all four are trending higher, highlighting a solid bullish outlook. Price action remains above these key indicators, with the 21-day SMA at $5,029.61 acting as immediate dynamic support. Meanwhile, the 14-day RSI stands at 59.50, slightly above the midpoint, signaling sustained upside momentum.

    From the swing high at $5,597.89 down to the low at $4,401.99, the market is consolidating between the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at $5,141.05 and the 78.6% level at $5,341.96, which is currently limiting further advances. A decisive daily close above the 78.6% retracement would pave the way for a retest of the previous high, whereas failure to break higher could trigger a decline toward the 50-day SMA at $4,742.30. As long as prices stay above the short-term moving averages, the near-term bias supports continued movement within the retracement range before a clearer breakout emerges.

    Fundamental Overview

    As trading resumed in China and Japan, liquidity returned to the markets, helping the US Dollar (USD) stabilize after recent pressure.

    Investors had previously leaned into “sell America” positions following tariff-related confusion triggered by US President Donald Trump over the weekend, which dented overall market confidence.

    Wall Street’s slide continued on Monday amid persistent uncertainty surrounding Trump’s tariff agenda, escalating geopolitical tensions, and caution ahead of AI heavyweight Nvidia’s earnings release on Wednesday.

    Gold ended its four-session rally as the USD staged a modest rebound, with prices retreating from monthly peaks to test key support near $5,142.

    Market participants remain highly sensitive to tariff developments, particularly after The Wall Street Journal reported early Tuesday that the Trump administration is considering fresh national security tariffs on several industries. The report followed a recent Supreme Court ruling that struck down a number of second-term levies.

    At the same time, geopolitical concerns persist, with tensions between the United States and Iran continuing to simmer.

    Ongoing expectations that the Federal Reserve will deliver at least two interest rate cuts this year should help limit deeper losses in Gold, which remains a traditional safe-haven asset.

    Further underpinning prices, investment demand from India has stayed resilient despite record-high levels, according to Money Metals Exchange.

  • Gold rises to a new monthly peak amid trade war concerns, geopolitical tensions, and a softer U.S. dollar.

    • Gold extended its rally for a fourth consecutive session, supported by a mix of favorable drivers.
    • Ongoing trade uncertainties and escalating geopolitical tensions continued to bolster demand for the safe-haven metal.
    • Expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts, along with a broadly softer U.S. dollar, offered further support to the non-yielding asset.

    Gold (XAU/USD) posted its strongest-ever weekly close above the $5,100 level on Friday and carried that momentum into the new week. The metal has now advanced for a fourth consecutive session, climbing past $5,150 during the Asian session to reach a fresh monthly high. Persistent trade-war concerns and escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East continue to channel safe-haven flows into bullion.

    U.S. President Donald Trump introduced a new trade framework after a Supreme Court ruling blocked his earlier sweeping tariff plan, announcing a 15% global tariff on imports—the maximum permitted under the law. The move heightened fears of retaliatory action and broader economic fallout from supply chain disruptions, dampening risk appetite and reinforcing demand for gold as a defensive asset.

    On the data front, Friday’s release showed the U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index rose 2.9% year-over-year in December, while the core measure increased 3.0%, tempering expectations of a March rate cut by the Federal Reserve. Even so, markets continue to anticipate the possibility of two 25-basis-point reductions later this year.

    Those expectations were supported by weaker U.S. growth figures, with GDP expanding at a 1.4% annualized pace in the fourth quarter—slowing sharply from 4.4% in Q3—amid the longest government shutdown on record. Combined with trade-related uncertainty, the softer growth backdrop has pulled the U.S. dollar back from last week’s highs, adding further support to non-yielding gold.

    Additionally, the risk of military confrontation between the U.S. and Iran has contributed to the metal’s upward momentum. Officials from both sides are scheduled to meet in Geneva on Thursday after Iran submitted a detailed nuclear proposal. Reports indicate that President Trump is weighing potential military action if diplomatic efforts fail to restrain Tehran’s nuclear ambitions, further underpinning safe-haven demand.

    XAU/USD H4 chart

    Gold buyers remain in control, with Friday’s surge beyond the $5,100 level still holding firm.

    From a technical standpoint, the solid upside continuation at the beginning of the week confirms last Friday’s breakout above the $5,100 horizontal resistance, reinforcing the bullish outlook for XAU/USD. The MACD remains above both the Signal line and the zero level, while the expanding positive histogram points to building upward momentum.

    In addition, gold is trading comfortably above the ascending 200-period EMA, which underpins the current advance and keeps the near-term bias skewed to the upside. However, the RSI at 73.23 signals overbought conditions, suggesting that immediate gains could be capped.

    As long as prices stay above the rising 200-period EMA at $4,864.04, the broader bias remains constructive, with dips likely to be limited. The MACD continues to support the bullish case, though a narrowing histogram would indicate fading momentum. With the RSI stretched into overbought territory, a period of consolidation or mild pullback may emerge before the uptrend resumes. Still, holding above the 200-period EMA would preserve the overall recovery structure, even if short-term consolidation unfolds.

    Sources: Haresh Menghani

  • Gold prices continue to rise amid renewed concerns over Trump’s tariff policies.

    Gold extended its rally for a fourth consecutive session on Monday, building on last week’s advance as new global tariff measures from U.S. President Donald Trump and softer U.S. economic data boosted demand for safe-haven assets.

    Spot gold climbed 0.8% to $5,143.55 an ounce by 19:53 ET (00:53 GMT), while U.S. gold futures jumped 1.7% to $5,165.86.

    Bullion gained more than 1% last week as escalating geopolitical tensions between the U.S. and Iran encouraged a risk-off tone across markets.

    Late last week, Trump announced a 10% tariff on global imports for 150 days under Section 122 of U.S. trade law, following a decision by the Supreme Court of the United States to strike down a broader tariff framework. The administration subsequently increased the levy to 15%—the maximum permitted under the statute—heightening fears of retaliatory actions and disruptions to global supply chains.

    The tariff move dampened investor sentiment, driving flows into traditional safe havens such as gold and U.S. Treasuries. Ongoing uncertainty about how long the tariffs will remain in place, along with potential legal and congressional challenges, added to market volatility.

    Gold also found support in recent U.S. data. The economy expanded at an annualized 1.4% pace in the fourth quarter, a notable slowdown from the prior quarter. Meanwhile, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index—the inflation measure favored by the Federal Reserve—rose 2.9% year-on-year in December, with core inflation near 3.0%, still above the central bank’s 2% target.

    The mix of moderating growth and persistently elevated inflation strengthened gold’s role as both a hedge against economic uncertainty and a store of value.

    Sources: Ayushman Ojha

  • Gold Breakout Above $5,160 Signals Move Toward $5,275

    Gold futures are presently moving within a defined VC PMI mean-reversion structure, signaling a market positioned at a pivotal balance point between accumulation and expansion. The price hovering near 5,030 coincides exactly with the weekly VC PMI mean, reinforcing the idea that value and momentum are in equilibrium as traders wait for a clear directional trigger.

    When prices consolidate around the mean, the probability outlook turns neutral. A decisive breakout above resistance or a pullback into lower value zones is needed to generate the next high-probability trading opportunity.

    Under the VC PMI framework, a sustained close above the 5,030 weekly mean and the daily Sell-1 resistance around 5,036 shifts probabilities in favor of continued upside. That confirmation opens the path toward the daily Sell-2 level near 5,075 and the weekly Sell-1 target at 5,160. A firm break and close above 5,160 would mark the start of a volatility expansion phase, transitioning the market from consolidation into a directional trend, with former Sell-1 and Sell-2 levels converting into support.

    In that bullish scenario, momentum could extend toward the weekly Sell-2 objective around 5,275, signaling stronger institutional flows and momentum-based participation. Historical probability metrics suggest that once price closes above the mean and sustains it, there is roughly a 70–80% chance of continuation toward the next resistance zone.

    On the other hand, failure to hold above the VC PMI mean—particularly a close below 5,000—would tilt probabilities toward a corrective retracement into the daily Buy-1 level near 4,965 and Buy-2 around 4,933. These represent statistically extreme value areas, where the model identifies a 90–95% probability of reversion back toward equilibrium after being tested.

    As long as price remains above the weekly Buy-1 level at 4,916, the broader technical structure stays constructive, implying pullbacks are corrective in nature rather than trend reversals. However, a decisive break below the weekly Buy-2 level at 4,785 would negate the current bullish outlook and point to a deeper cyclical correction.

    Time-cycle analysis heading into late February and early March highlights critical inflection windows around February 24–26 and March 3–7—periods that historically coincide with shifts from consolidation to expansion phases.

    These timing cycles correspond with Square-of-9 harmonic resistance in the 5,075–5,160 range and support clusters between 4,965 and 4,916, forming a technically balanced and mathematically aligned trading range.

    When time and price harmonics converge in this manner, the probability of volatility expansion increases significantly, often leading to directional breakouts accompanied by stronger momentum and broader market participation.

    Sources: Patrick MontesDeOca

  • Gold maintains upward bias north of $5,000 as traders await US economic releases.

    Gold (XAU/USD) remains tilted to the upside for a third consecutive session on Friday, though gains appear restrained amid a mixed fundamental backdrop. Traders are largely staying on the sidelines ahead of key U.S. data releases — the Advance fourth-quarter GDP report and the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index — before committing to fresh directional positions. These readings are expected to shape expectations for the Federal Reserve’s rate-cut trajectory, which in turn will influence the U.S. dollar and the outlook for the non-yielding yellow metal.

    Heightened geopolitical tensions are offering some support. U.S. President Donald Trump warned Iran that it must reach a nuclear agreement within 10 to 15 days or face severe consequences. In response, Iran told UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres that while it does not seek conflict, it would respond to any military aggression and consider hostile forces’ regional bases legitimate targets. The escalating rhetoric has revived fears of a broader Middle East confrontation, underpinning safe-haven demand for gold and helping sustain its modest advance into the end of the week.

    However, upside momentum remains capped by shifting interest-rate expectations. Minutes from the January FOMC meeting indicated policymakers are not in a rush to ease policy further and even discussed the possibility of additional tightening should inflation remain persistent. Strong U.S. labor market data, coupled with hawkish remarks from Fed officials, has prompted investors to scale back expectations for aggressive rate cuts.

    This repricing has lifted the U.S. dollar to its highest level since January 23, limiting further gains in gold and suggesting bulls may remain cautious until clearer signals emerge from incoming economic data.

    XAU/USD H1 chart

    Gold buyers stay in control above the 100-hour SMA; range breakout still pending.

    On Thursday, XAU/USD successfully held above the 100-hour Simple Moving Average (SMA), which has shifted from resistance to support, and staged a modest rebound from that level. However, the absence of strong follow-through buying and the largely range-bound movement seen over the past couple of sessions suggest bulls should remain cautious. The 100-hour SMA, currently positioned at $4,965.41, continues to provide nearby dynamic support.

    From a momentum standpoint, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains below both its Signal line and the zero mark, although the narrowing negative histogram points to easing bearish pressure. Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers around 53, reflecting neutral conditions and a tentative recovery bias.

    As long as price action stays above the rising 100-period SMA, short-term risks remain tilted to the upside. A bullish MACD crossover accompanied by a move back above the zero line would reinforce the case for further gains. On the other hand, if MACD momentum weakens further and the RSI turns lower from the mid-50 region, the rebound could lose traction, potentially leading to another test of the moving average before a clearer directional move emerges.

    Sources: Haresh Menghani

  • Gold Moves in a Tight Range, but Technical Setup Signals Potential Surge Toward $6,800 if Breakout Occurs

    The Chinese Spring Festival (Chinese New Year) holiday is now underway, a period that has historically coincided with softer fiat-denominated gold prices.

    Meanwhile, gold is carving out a consolidation range between $4,400 and $5,600. The longer price action remains compressed within this band, the more constructive the setup becomes.

    Extended consolidation typically builds pressure — increasing the probability of an eventual upside breakout and a potential rally toward $6,800.

    Here’s another perspective on the price action. Notice the channel outlined by the dotted blue trendlines.

    Gold has broken decisively above that channel and now seems to be digesting the move, consolidating gains after the breakout.

    Seasonal softness across the metals complex could linger until the Chinese holiday concludes. For enthusiastic Western gold investors, this pullback phase may present an opportunity to increase exposure to gold, silver, and mining equities.

    I’ve outlined what I call an emerging “gold bull era,” driven less by Western fear-based demand and more by the structural economic ascent of China and India—an expansion powerful enough to overshadow the West’s traditional crisis trade.

    This new phase could also unfold alongside rapid automation, with hundreds of millions of robots taking on work that inflation-strained populations—both East and West—are increasingly burdened by.

    In such an environment, widespread income support could evolve into significantly higher baseline incomes, and gold-oriented Asian consumers may expand their purchases well beyond already robust levels.

    In the West, the backdrop looks increasingly fragile. Job growth in 2025 has been minimal, with the latest ADP data showing only around 22,000 positions added in January.

    By contrast, the official government report showed a gain of 130,000 jobs. That wide gap raises questions—either the data contains significant distortions, or much of the hiring is concentrated in government roles funded by expanding public debt.

    The core fear-trade argument is straightforward: if private-sector job creation continues to stall while debt-financed employment props up the headline numbers, underlying economic weakness may deepen.

    Unless productivity gains from automation are formally reflected in economic measurements, the strain between slowing human employment and rising fiscal burdens could intensify.

    For investors focused on hedging systemic risk, the question becomes familiar: is your portfolio positioned with assets designed to weather instability?

    How about silver? The head-and-shoulders top currently forming is a bearish technical pattern pointing toward the $20 area. What might invalidate this setup?

    A rally to $87 would push silver back above three of the shoulders in the formation. An additional climb to $93 would fully invalidate the pattern and deal a severe blow to heavily leveraged bears.

    Being a pure silver bug—someone almost entirely invested in silver—demands serious conviction and resilience. For the average investor newly drawn to this remarkable metal, it’s wise to keep ample cash on hand to take advantage of unexpected price pullbacks.

    What about the miners? On the CDNX daily chart, the RSI and Stochastics are showing positive signals, but the key 20,40,10 MACD is still sluggish and lacking momentum. If that indicator begins to strengthen, the uptrend in junior mining stocks should pick back up.

    The CDNX weekly chart looks impressive. The base formation is strong and likely signals further upside not only for juniors, but also for intermediate and senior mining companies.

    The most probable near-term outlook is a brief pause as Chinese investors step back for the New Year holiday, followed by a solid rally into April for the mining sector. After that, a seasonal consolidation through the summer seems likely, before a powerful, decisive breakout above the 1177 highs.

    In the meantime, many individual mining stocks could “front-run” the CDNX, advancing to fresh highs ahead of the broader index.

    Looking at the long-term chart of the VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF versus gold, mining stocks appear strikingly undervalued—arguably the cheapest sector relative to its underlying asset in modern market history.

    The encouraging part is that this imbalance may be only months away from correcting through the only reset that truly counts: a major revaluation of gold equities relative to gold itself.

    The weekly chart of Lundin Gold is particularly compelling. While most gold producers report all-in sustaining costs (AISC) below $2,000 per ounce—and silver producers around $20—Lundin’s AISC is closer to $1,000, underscoring its strong cost position. Still, even the most efficient miners require periodic technical pauses. The behavior of the key 5 and 15 moving averages highlights these natural consolidation phases.

    Pullbacks across the mining sector—both juniors and seniors—can offer strategic entry points, especially as gold continues to consolidate following its broader fundamental breakout.

    Some investors even speculate that the fiat price of gold could eventually exceed that of Bitcoin, viewing bitcoin primarily as a liquidity vehicle to accumulate more gold. Over time, rising global demand—particularly from China—could further reinforce gold’s long-term appeal.

    Sources: Stewart Thomson

  • Gold hovers around $5,000 an ounce amid geopolitical tensions, while Fed minutes limit further gains.

    Gold prices were largely steady in Asian trade on Thursday, following a surge of more than 2% in the previous session. Momentum was restrained by thin Lunar New Year holiday liquidity, while investors weighed ongoing geopolitical tensions and mixed signals from the Federal Reserve.

    Spot gold edged down 0.1% to $4,971.55 an ounce as of 20:51 ET (01:51 GMT), while U.S. gold futures fell 0.4% to $4,991.59.

    The precious metal rallied 2.1% on Wednesday, briefly climbing above the $5,000-an-ounce mark and reclaiming most of its earlier weekly losses. However, subdued trading volumes across several major Asian markets amplified short-term volatility.

    Geopolitical uncertainty continued to underpin demand for bullion. Market participants tracked rising friction between the United States and Iran, including concerns over security in the Strait of Hormuz and stalled nuclear negotiations. Limited headway in Russia-Ukraine peace talks also sustained broader risk aversion, supporting safe-haven flows into gold.

    On the policy front, sentiment turned more cautious after minutes from the Federal Reserve’s latest meeting revealed differing views among officials on the interest-rate trajectory. Some policymakers warned that persistently high inflation could warrant further tightening, while others signaled scope for rate cuts later this year.

    Expectations that U.S. rates may stay higher for longer bolstered the dollar and Treasury yields, creating headwinds for non-yielding gold after its sharp rally. The U.S. Dollar Index was flat after climbing 0.6% overnight in response to the Fed minutes.

    Gold typically faces pressure when borrowing costs rise, as higher yields raise the opportunity cost of holding the metal. Investors are now focused on Friday’s U.S. personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index data — the Fed’s preferred inflation measure — for clearer direction on monetary policy.

    Sources: Ayushman Ojha

  • Gold steadies after sliding about 2% as U.S.– Iran talks show progress; traders weigh implications of upcoming Fed policy.

    Gold prices held steady in Asian trading on Wednesday following a sharp decline in the previous session, as reduced geopolitical tensions and a stronger U.S. dollar curbed safe-haven demand, with investors looking ahead to new signals on the Federal Reserve’s policy direction.

    Spot gold rose 0.1% to $4,884.16 an ounce as of 20:24 ET (01:24 GMT), while U.S. gold futures slipped 0.1% to $4,899.91.

    Trading activity in Asia remained subdued due to Lunar New Year holidays across several key regional markets, keeping price movements limited.

    The precious metal had fallen more than 2% on Tuesday amid improved risk sentiment following indications of progress in U.S.–Iran negotiations. Both sides reportedly reached an understanding on key “guiding principles,” boosting optimism for a diplomatic breakthrough and reducing demand for bullion as a safe-haven asset.

    Gold’s earlier losses were amplified by a firmer dollar, which makes the metal costlier for holders of other currencies, as well as diminishing expectations of imminent U.S. rate cuts. The U.S. Dollar Index rose 0.1% during Asian hours after gaining 0.3% in the previous session.

    Investors remained cautious ahead of the release of minutes from the Federal Reserve’s January meeting, due later in the day, which may provide further clarity on the timing and extent of potential policy easing.

    Attention is also focused on Friday’s U.S. personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index for December—the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation—which could significantly influence rate expectations.

    Generally, higher interest rates tend to pressure non-yielding assets like gold, while expectations of monetary easing typically lend support to prices.

    Sources: Ayushman Ojha

  • Gold holds intraday losses as Fed cut bets pressure USD.

    Gold starts the week under pressure, weighed down by a slight rebound in the US Dollar and improved market sentiment. Even so, ongoing geopolitical tensions—particularly ahead of the upcoming US-Iran talks—could offer support to the safe-haven metal. At the same time, expectations that the Federal Reserve will deliver additional rate cuts may restrain the Dollar and help cushion gold’s downside.

    During early European trading on Monday, Gold (XAU/USD) stays subdued but has bounced off its intraday low to hover near the key $5,000 psychological level. A mix of supportive factors suggests caution for traders considering aggressive short positions or anticipating a deeper decline.

    A modest uptick in the USD, coupled with a broadly upbeat risk mood, is putting mild pressure on bullion. However, geopolitical risks remain elevated ahead of the second round of US-Iran nuclear negotiations. The US has deployed another aircraft carrier to the region and signaled readiness for a prolonged military response if talks collapse. In turn, Iran’s Revolutionary Guards have warned of retaliation against US bases in the event of strikes. These tensions could underpin gold prices.

    Meanwhile, strong and sustained USD gains appear limited due to dovish Fed expectations, which tend to favor the non-yielding precious metal. Although last week’s robust Nonfarm Payrolls report initially supported the Dollar, softer US inflation data released Friday revived bets that the Fed could begin cutting rates as soon as June. Headline CPI rose 0.2% and core CPI increased 0.3% in the latest reading, reinforcing expectations of further policy easing and potentially limiting gold’s losses.

    Additionally, lighter trading conditions due to the US Presidents Day holiday may discourage traders from taking bold directional positions in XAU/USD. Upcoming remarks from Fed officials could influence both the Dollar and gold, but attention will center on Wednesday’s FOMC meeting minutes for clearer signals on the rate-cut outlook. Later in the week, global flash PMI data on Friday may provide fresh trading opportunities.

    XAU/USD 1-hour chart

    Gold is rejected at the 100-hour SMA resistance.

    XAU/USD’s failure to sustain gains above the 100-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) from Friday’s rally continues to favor the bears. The pair remains below this downward-sloping indicator near $5,028.40, which is limiting upside attempts and maintaining a negative intraday outlook. Meanwhile, the MACD has slipped beneath its signal line into negative territory, with an expanding bearish histogram highlighting growing downside momentum. The RSI sits at 45, in neutral territory but trending lower, in line with the softer bias.

    As long as XAU/USD trades below the falling 100-period SMA, pressure is likely to persist, with the negative MACD setup pointing to ongoing seller dominance. A stronger recovery would require the MACD to cross back above its signal line and the RSI to move above 50, a shift that would reduce bearish pressure and open the door for a corrective rebound.

    Sources: Haresh Menghani

  • Weekly outlook: US Dollar steadies near 96.80 before PCE data and Fed remarks.

    The US Dollar (USD) posted notable weekly losses, briefly rebounding after stronger-than-expected US jobs data showed 130K new positions added in January and the Unemployment Rate dipping to 4.3% from 4.4%. However, softer January CPI figures pressured the currency.

    The US Dollar Index (DXY) slipped to around 96.80 from 97.15 highs as weak inflation data boosted expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut later this year. Attention now turns to Friday’s release of the December Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) report, the Fed’s preferred inflation measure.

    EUR/USD hovers around 1.1880, erasing earlier losses after Eurozone flash Q4 GDP came in at 1.4% YoY, above the 1.3% forecast. Focus next week includes the Eurogroup Meeting and December Industrial Production on Monday, followed by the EcoFin Meeting and February Eurozone and German ZEW Surveys on Tuesday.

    AUD/USD trades near 0.7080, close to a three-year peak, supported by the hawkish stance of the Reserve Bank of Australia. Upcoming data include NAB Business Confidence and the Wage Price Index on Wednesday, then Australian jobs figures and the February flash S&P Global Composite PMI on Thursday.

    USD/CAD sits near 1.3600, recovering nearly half of its weekly losses after US inflation data. Markets will watch Canada’s December Retail Sales on Friday.

    USD/JPY trades around 152.80 following a sharp sell-off triggered by the election victory of Sanae Takaichi, which raised fiscal policy concerns. Japan’s National CPI is due on Thursday.

    GBP/USD holds near 1.3650, with UK Producer Price Index and Retail Price Index data due Wednesday, and Retail Sales scheduled for Friday.

    Gold trades around $5,038, rebounding from Thursday’s drop but still below January’s record high of $5,598, as easing geopolitical tensions push investors toward riskier assets.

    Looking ahead to the economic outlook: Key voices take center stage.

    Saturday, February 14

    • Christine Lagarde (ECB President)

    Sunday, February 15

    • Christine Lagarde (ECB President)

    Monday, February 16

    • Michelle Bowman (Fed)
    • Joachim Nagel (ECB)

    Tuesday, February 17

    • José Luis Escrivá (ECB)
    • Michael Barr (Fed)
    • Mary Daly (Fed)

    Wednesday, February 18

    • Piero Cipollone (ECB)
    • Isabel Schnabel (ECB)
    • Michelle Bowman (Fed)

    Thursday, February 19

    • Piero Cipollone (ECB)
    • Luis de Guindos (ECB)
    • Raphael Bostic (Fed)
    • Michelle Bowman (Fed)
    • Neel Kashkari (Fed)
    • Christian Hawkesby (rbnz official)

    Friday, February 20

    • Christine Lagarde (ECB President)
    • Raphael Bostic (Fed)

    Central bank meetings and upcoming economic data releases are set to guide the next moves in monetary policy.

    Sunday, February 15

    • Japan flash Q4 GDP

    Tuesday, February 17

    • Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Meeting Minutes
    • Germany January Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP)
    • UK January Claimant Count Change
    • UK December Employment Change
    • UK December ILO Unemployment Rate
    • Canada January CPI

    Wednesday, February 18

    • Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) Interest Rate Decision
    • UK January CPI
    • Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Minutes

    Thursday, February 19

    • Australia January Employment Change
    • Australia Unemployment Rate

    Friday, February 20

    • UK January Retail Sales
    • Germany February flash HCOB Composite PMIs
    • Eurozone PMIs
    • UK flash February S&P Global PMIs
    • US December Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE)
    • US February S&P Global PMIs

    Sources: Agustin Wazne

  • Stronger Dollar Caps Gold’s Rally Near $5,000 Ahead of CPI Report

    Gold drew renewed buying interest after sliding to a weekly low in the previous session. Expectations that the Federal Reserve may adopt a more dovish stance continue to weigh on the US Dollar, offering support to the precious metal. Market participants are now awaiting the latest US consumer inflation data for fresh direction.

    Gold (XAU/USD) has pulled back from near the $5,000 psychological level but maintains modest intraday gains heading into Friday’s European trading session. Investors are focused on the upcoming US CPI release, which is expected to provide clearer signals on the Fed’s future policy path. The outcome will likely influence short-term US Dollar dynamics and generate meaningful momentum for the non-yielding metal.

    Earlier in the week, a stronger-than-expected US Nonfarm Payrolls report prompted traders to trim expectations for a March rate cut, helping the US Dollar Index (DXY) rebound from a two-week low and contributing to Gold’s pullback. Even so, markets continue to anticipate that the Fed could still deliver two rate cuts in 2026. Meanwhile, softer US Jobless Claims data has limited the Dollar’s upside.

    According to the US Department of Labor, initial jobless claims declined to 227K for the week ending February 7, above the 222K forecast but below the previous week’s revised 232K. Continuing Claims rose to 1.862 million for the week ending January 31, underscoring ongoing labor market softness seen over the past year. This underlying weakness provides support for Gold while tempering the Dollar’s strength.

    Additionally, a deterioration in global risk sentiment, reflected in broadly weaker equity markets, has boosted demand for safe-haven assets like Gold. However, it remains uncertain whether XAU/USD can extend its gains, as traders may prefer to stay cautious until the key US CPI report is released before initiating fresh positions.

    XAU/USD 1-hour chart

    Gold’s Mixed Technical Signals Call for Caution

    Gold’s technical picture remains conflicted, suggesting aggressive traders should proceed carefully. The overnight break below the weekly trading range initially appeared to give bears the upper hand. However, the absence of sustained follow-through selling and the metal’s resilience beneath the $4,900 level argue against firmly committing to a bearish outlook.

    On the momentum front, the MACD has crossed above its Signal line near the zero mark, with the histogram turning positive—an indication that bullish momentum may be gradually building. This shift hints at a possible near-term recovery in price action.

    At the same time, the RSI has rebounded from oversold territory and currently sits at 44.72, a neutral reading. While this supports a tentative intraday bounce, the RSI remaining below the 50 threshold suggests that upside attempts could face resistance.

    Should the MACD slip back below the Signal line and fall under zero, bearish pressure would likely re-emerge, potentially extending the current consolidation phase. For now, momentum leans modestly supportive as long as the MACD holds above zero and the positive histogram continues to expand. Conversely, a narrowing histogram would signal waning momentum and caution against overconfidence in further gains.

    Sources: Haresh Menghani

  • Gold steadied below $5,000/oz as rate uncertainty lingered, with CPI data in focus.

    Gold held steady in early Asian trading on Friday after slipping below key technical levels amid growing uncertainty about the outlook for U.S. interest rates, with investors now awaiting upcoming inflation data for clearer direction.

    Silver also stabilized after shedding roughly 10% in the previous session, though metals remained vulnerable following a sharp selloff earlier in the month.

    Persistent doubts about the timing of future U.S. rate cuts continued to pressure precious metals, particularly after January data signaled resilience in the labor market. The U.S. dollar rebounded from weekly lows following Wednesday’s stronger-than-expected nonfarm payrolls report.

    Spot gold edged down 0.1% to $4,915.40 an ounce by 18:31 ET (23:31 GMT), while April gold futures slipped 0.1% to $4,937.60 per ounce. In the prior session, spot prices had dropped more than 3%.

    Spot silver was little changed at $75.060 per ounce, while platinum recovered to trade back above $2,000 per ounce after steep losses a day earlier.

    Thursday’s decline effectively wiped out most of this week’s gains for gold and other precious metals, putting the yellow metal on track for a third consecutive weekly loss.

    Markets have struggled to find direction since a late-January flash crash, with interest rate uncertainty remaining a central headwind. Gold’s retreat from recent record highs was initially sparked by U.S. President Donald Trump’s nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve Chair, a choice seen as less dovish.

    The robust January jobs report reinforced expectations of fewer rate cuts ahead, while sharp price volatility has also weakened metals’ appeal as safe-haven assets.

    Attention now turns to the January U.S. consumer price index data due later Friday, which could offer further insight into the trajectory of the world’s largest economy. Inflation and labor market conditions remain the Federal Reserve’s primary factors in setting monetary policy.

    Sources: Ambar Warrick

  • Gold and silver prices edged lower after robust payroll data reduced expectations for interest rate cuts.

    Gold and silver prices declined during Asian trading on Thursday after stronger-than-expected U.S. payrolls data dampened expectations for deeper Federal Reserve rate cuts, though losses were cushioned by ongoing safe-haven demand.

    Precious metals largely held onto this week’s gains, supported by continued dollar weakness and elevated tensions between the U.S. and Iran, which kept demand for safe assets intact.

    Spot gold dropped 0.7% to $5,051.26 per ounce, while April gold futures slipped 0.5% to $5,072.04/oz as of 01:36 ET (06:36 GMT). Spot silver fell 1.3% to $83.2505/oz, and platinum declined 1.6% to $2,107.30/oz.

    Gold pressured as dollar rebounds on solid payrolls data

    Gold came under pressure after January’s U.S. nonfarm payrolls report, released Wednesday, exceeded expectations. The stronger labor market reading reduced bets that slowing employment would prompt additional rate cuts from the Fed.

    According to CME FedWatch, markets are now assigning a 94.1% probability that the Fed will keep rates unchanged in March, and a 78% chance of no change in April.

    The upbeat data also triggered a rebound in the U.S. dollar overnight, weighing on metal prices. However, the dollar stabilized in Asian trade and remains slightly lower for the week, partly due to strength in the Japanese yen.

    OCBC analysts noted that a sustained dollar recovery would require further evidence of resilience in the U.S. economy — a scenario that could still offer some support to gold.

    “Structural headwinds — including uncertainty around Fed leadership succession and broader U.S. policy risks — suggest the dollar will need additional upside data surprises to maintain any rebound,” OCBC analysts said.

    Even so, precious metals remained volatile after sharp swings over the past week amid heightened uncertainty surrounding U.S. monetary policy.

    U.S. inflation data and Iran tensions in focus

    Investors are awaiting further signals on the U.S. economy, particularly January consumer price index data due Friday. Inflation and labor market conditions remain the Fed’s primary considerations for rate decisions. Weekly jobless claims figures are also scheduled for release later Thursday.

    Safe-haven demand continued to lend support to metals amid ongoing U.S.–Iran tensions. Although both sides reported some progress in nuclear talks over the weekend, Washington was reportedly preparing to send a second aircraft carrier to the Middle East.

    President Donald Trump also urged Tehran to accept a deal with Washington and met Israeli President Benjamin Netanyahu on Wednesday, underscoring persistent geopolitical risks.

    Sources: Ambar Warrick

  • Gold capped as risk appetite offsets softer USD before NFP

    • Gold rebounds and trims some of the modest losses recorded in the previous session.
    • Ongoing weakness in the US Dollar, driven by expectations surrounding the Federal Reserve, continues to support the metal.
    • However, positive market sentiment could limit further gains as investors wait for the upcoming US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report.

    Gold (XAU/USD) maintains modest intraday gains above the $5,050 mark as it heads into Wednesday’s European session. Expectations of additional interest rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) have pushed the US Dollar (USD) to a near two-week low, providing support for the non-yielding precious metal. However, prevailing risk-on sentiment could limit further upside for the safe-haven asset. Traders may also prefer to stay on the sidelines ahead of the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report before committing to fresh bullish positions.

    On Tuesday, the US Census Bureau reported that Retail Sales were flat in December, following a 0.6% increase in November and falling short of the 0.4% growth forecast. Combined with signs of cooling in the US labor market, the data has led economists to lower their fourth-quarter growth projections, reinforcing expectations of further Fed rate cuts. Money markets are currently pricing in around 58 basis points of easing in 2026, a factor that continues to weigh on the Greenback.

    At the same time, worries over the Federal Reserve’s independence resurfaced after US President Donald Trump stated on Saturday that he could take legal action against his newly nominated Fed Chair, Kevin Warsh, if interest rates were not reduced. Adding to the debate, Fed Governor Stephan Miran remarked that complete central bank independence is unattainable. These developments overshadowed hawkish remarks from regional Fed Presidents Lorie Logan and Beth Hammack and offered little support to the US Dollar. As a result, Gold appears to retain a favorable upward bias.

    Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan noted that the labor market is stabilizing and downside risks are fading, while inflation has remained above the 2% target for nearly five years. She added that current monetary policy may be close to neutral, exerting limited restraint on the economy. Similarly, Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack said the policy rate is near neutral territory, putting the Fed in a strong position to assess incoming data. Hammack also suggested that rates could remain unchanged “for quite some time,” given persistently elevated inflation and ongoing tariff-related uncertainties.

    Despite this supportive backdrop, XAU/USD bulls appear cautious and may prefer to await the US monthly employment report for clearer signals on the Fed’s policy path. The outcome will likely shape near-term US Dollar movements and provide fresh direction for Gold. Meanwhile, improved risk sentiment and indications of easing tensions in the Middle East could temper demand for the safe-haven metal. Therefore, waiting for solid follow-through buying may be prudent before anticipating further gains.

    Gold must break above the $5,090 resistance area to reinforce the outlook for further upside.

    From a technical standpoint, XAU/USD demonstrated resilience below the 200-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart earlier this month. The SMA continues to slope upward and remains comfortably beneath the current price, reinforcing the broader bullish bias. As long as the pair holds above this level, the overall trajectory remains skewed to the upside.

    That said, momentum indicators point to some consolidation. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains above the Signal line and in positive territory, though the narrowing histogram indicates waning upward momentum. Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers around 56, reflecting neutral-to-slightly bullish conditions and supporting a consolidative outlook. This suggests it may be wise to wait for a decisive move above the $5,090 resistance level before targeting additional gains.

    A continued contraction in the MACD histogram could signal a pause or range-bound trading, whereas a renewed expansion would indicate a resurgence in bullish momentum. Additionally, with the RSI holding above 50, the underlying bias remains constructive; a climb toward 60 would further strengthen upside prospects. Overall, the technical setup favors buying on modest pullbacks while momentum stabilizes.

    Sources: Haresh Menghani

  • Gold appears poised to climb further as growing fiat currency risks and geopolitical tensions intensify.

    The author argues that fiat currency is increasingly unstable due to excessive government debt and geopolitical tensions, while gold represents enduring monetary strength. Historically, there have been only four major rallies in fiat currencies over the past 50 years, each weaker than the last, suggesting a long-term decline in confidence.

    Concerns are growing as the U.S. continues expanding debt while using its currency as a geopolitical tool, prompting individuals and institutions to shift toward gold. Although some investors missed earlier buying opportunities around $4,400, the current ascending triangle pattern on gold’s chart suggests further upside potential, with a projected target near $5,900.

    U.S. stock valuations are extremely elevated, while government deficit spending relative to GDP is already at levels typically seen during severe crises. If deficits remain this high during strong markets and under an administration that claims fiscal discipline, the concern is that a future crisis—combined with less restraint—could drive the deficit-to-GDP ratio even higher.

    In short, individuals should prepare not only for a potential U.S. recession but possibly a stagflationary downturn, with the suggested strategy being to strengthen personal savings through holdings in gold and silver.

    On the geopolitical front, rising tensions are viewed as supportive for gold. One concern is the idea of pressuring Taiwan to shift advanced semiconductor production to the U.S., potentially through heavy tariffs on Taiwanese-made chips. Such actions could increase inflation and strain U.S.–Taiwan relations, possibly reshaping regional dynamics with China. Overall, the situation appears increasingly unstable—conditions that historically tend to benefit gold as a safe-haven asset.

    In Cuba, worsening economic conditions—such as public transportation disruptions—reflect deeper structural problems, with little sign of meaningful reform. If instability escalates, it could increase global uncertainty, a backdrop that typically supports higher gold prices.

    The US government’s disturbing plot to elevate election denier, admirer of torture, and destroyer of civic life Delcy Rodríguez has already taken another troubling turn. This nightmare is just one of many geopolitical mechanisms propping up gold interests.
    Could it get even more absurd? In theory, yes — if María Corina Machado were arrested next. Would President Trump then flaunt a Nobel Prize she once held to his followers obsessed with fiat currency and oil, while she languished in prison under Rodríguez’s brutal treatment?

    In such a scenario, Venezuela could spiral into civil war, with chaos on a scale that might rival what we’re seeing in Iran.

    So, do you have any gold?

    What about silver? Silver also looks very strong. A glance at the chart highlights the 14,7,7 Stochastics oscillator at the bottom.

    It has moved into the buy zone — only the third time this has happened since August. A rally back toward the $122 highs appears entirely achievable.

    Silver reached solid support near $70 just as gold touched $4,400. I encouraged investors to anchor their purchases to gold’s powerful technical performance. Those who stepped in at that point are being rewarded, with silver already climbing back above $80 this morning — and the opportunity may still not be gone for those considering entry.

    And the miners? Take a look at the daily CDNX “Jump in the Pool” chart. The Stochastics indicator is signaling strong momentum, and even if prices retreat toward support around 825, that would likely present another attractive buying opportunity.

    The long-term chart looks remarkable. A massive inverse head-and-shoulders pattern appears to be forming. Notice the blue circle on the left side of the chart — a pause around the neckline area now would simply enhance the symmetry between the right and left sides. For enthusiastic junior mining stock investors, the outlook suggests the potential for years of rising prices ahead.

    What about the senior miners — are they worth buying as well? Looking at the long-term GDX versus gold chart, a large inverse head-and-shoulders pattern is taking shape. The formation closely mirrors what’s developing on the CDNX versus fiat chart.

    A glance at the daily chart suggests there may be some consolidation over the next couple of weeks. However, Stochastics has returned to levels last seen in November. Considering the alarming deficit-to-GDP dynamics, ongoing geopolitical turmoil, and the shifting global power landscape, I’d argue that senior gold stock investors worldwide should be ready to step up and take action.

    Sources: Stewart Thomson

  • Gold, silver climb on soft U.S. data; payrolls awaited.

    Gold and silver edged higher in early Asian trading Wednesday after weak U.S. retail sales fueled expectations of a slowing economy, with investors awaiting payrolls data for clearer direction.

    Despite the gains, precious metals remained volatile after retreating from record highs in late January, and have struggled to rebound. A softer dollar and weak U.S. data provided only modest support, while Middle East tensions sustained some safe-haven demand.

    Spot gold rose 0.3% to $5,038.21 an ounce and April futures gained 0.6% to $5,061.45, still roughly $600 below recent peaks. Spot silver climbed 0.9% to $81.5135, and platinum added 0.9% to $2,105.86.

    Metals rise following weak U.S. retail sales data.

    Precious metals posted modest losses on Tuesday before rebounding Wednesday after December U.S. retail sales came in weaker than expected.

    The softer data signaled cooling consumer spending amid persistent inflation and labor market pressures, raising concerns about the economic outlook. Expectations that the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates further this year weighed on Treasury yields and kept the dollar subdued, lending support to metal prices.

    Investors are now focused on the upcoming nonfarm payrolls report for clearer signals on the economy. Signs of continued labor market weakness could strengthen bets on rate cuts, which typically favor non-yielding assets like gold.

    However, uncertainty over U.S. monetary policy persists, particularly after President Donald Trump nominated Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair. Warsh is seen as less dovish, a perception that has pressured metal markets since late January.

    Sources: Ambar Warrick

  • Gold prices edged lower but held above the $5,000-per-ounce level, while silver prices also retreated.

    Gold prices slipped in early Asian trading on Tuesday, pulling back from strong gains in the previous session as investors turned cautious ahead of a series of important U.S. economic data releases this week. Silver and platinum also moved lower, despite some limited support from an overnight dip in the dollar, which later showed signs of recovery in Asian hours.

    Spot gold declined 0.8% to $5,016.28 an ounce, while April gold futures fell 0.8% to $5,041.60 an ounce. Spot silver dropped 2.4% to $81.29 an ounce, and spot platinum slid 2% to $2,081.71 an ounce.

    Precious metals have seen sharp volatility over the past week, with profit-taking and stretched positioning driving prices down from record highs. Markets have also been unsettled by uncertainty around U.S. monetary policy, particularly ahead of a potential leadership change at the Federal Reserve.

    Attention this week is firmly on key U.S. economic indicators for signals on growth and the future path of interest rates. January nonfarm payrolls data is due on Wednesday, followed by consumer price index inflation data on Friday, both of which are critical inputs for the Fed given its focus on inflation and labor market conditions.

    Investors are also assessing the potential policy direction under Kevin Warsh, President Donald Trump’s nominee to succeed Jerome Powell as Fed chair when Powell’s term ends in May. Warsh is widely seen as less dovish, and his nomination triggered steep selloffs in metals markets that have yet to be fully reversed, with gold plunging from near-record highs around $5,600 an ounce and silver falling from above $120 an ounce.

    Sources: Ambar Warrick

  • Gold Moves Into Accumulation Mode as VC PMI Eyes 5,094–5,208 Resistance

    Gold futures remain in a well-defined bullish consolidation, with prices oscillating around the VC PMI daily mean near 4,982. The market’s continued defense of the Buy-1 level at 4,768 and Buy-2 at 4,556 reinforces the view that institutional demand is emerging on pullbacks. This price action aligns with the core VC PMI mean-reversion framework: sustained trade above the mean increases the probability of a move toward the Sell-1 and Sell-2 targets.

    Within the VC PMI framework, the weekly mean around 4,839 has acted as the key pivot for directional bias. As long as price action remains above this level, bullish momentum is sustained, with upside projections toward the daily Sell-1 resistance at 5,094 and Sell-2 at 5,208. These zones mark statistically extreme levels where the probability of mean reversion typically exceeds 90% under normal market conditions. A decisive breakout and close above Sell-2 would indicate a transition into a higher-volatility regime, opening the door to the weekly Sell-1 level at 5,255 and potentially the weekly Sell-2 target near 5,530.

    Square-of-9 geometry closely mirrors the current price structure, highlighting that the recent peak near 5,113 aligns with a harmonic resistance angle projected from prior cycle lows around 4,423. This geometric relationship suggests gold is completing a rotational phase ahead of its next directional move. When prices oscillate between key geometric angles, it often signals energy compression that ultimately resolves through a momentum expansion.

    Time-cycle analysis into mid-February points to a critical inflection window. With prices consolidating above the mean, the higher-probability outcome favors continuation toward upper resistance bands. Conversely, a failure to hold the 4,982 pivot would likely prompt a corrective rotation toward 4,768 and potentially 4,556, levels where longer-term accumulation demand is expected to reappear.

    The combined use of VC PMI price levels, time-cycle analysis, and Square-of-9 geometry creates a multidimensional framework for identifying high-probability inflection points. Rather than forecasting direction, traders should concentrate on price reactions at the mean and statistically extreme bands. Directional bias is ultimately confirmed by the market itself, once price closes decisively above or below these levels.

    Sources: Patrick MontesDeOca

  • Gold and Silver: Volatility is undermining their role as portfolio diversifiers – HSBC

    HSBC Asset Management said gold and silver posted dramatic price swings in 2025, fueled by geopolitical risks and worries about the Federal Reserve’s independence, before evolving into a retail-driven speculative phase. Analysts caution that leveraged selling could increase their correlation with equities, but note that central bank de-dollarisation efforts and crisis-related demand continue to support the long-term structural case for precious metals.

    Safe-haven demand weighed against speculative flows

    “This year’s moves in gold and silver have been extraordinary.
    Sparked by geopolitical tensions and concerns over the Federal Reserve’s independence, the 2025 rally morphed into a retail-driven speculative surge, making a correction increasingly probable.

    So where does that leave investors who rely on gold as a portfolio diversifier? Although retail inflows lifted returns, they also brought equity-like volatility — at odds with gold’s traditional safe-haven role.

    That said, recent turbulence shows that no safe haven is perfect, reinforcing the case for ‘diversifying the diversifiers’: taking an active, multi-asset approach to seek uncorrelated returns across a wide range of assets.”

    Sources: Fxstreet

  • Gold seeks firm footing above $5,000 as a pivotal week begins

    Gold is consolidating recent gains around the $5,000 level, with buyers gradually building momentum for a potential sustained uptrend as a pivotal week gets underway. Market attention is firmly on the delayed U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls report due Wednesday and the Consumer Price Index data scheduled for release on Friday.

    Fundamental Analysis

    As the new, data-heavy week begins, dovish sentiment surrounding the U.S. Federal Reserve is setting the tone, with renewed reflation trades helping gold extend Friday’s strong rebound from the $4,650 area.

    After last week’s weak U.S. labor data, markets have continued to price in the first Fed interest-rate cut as early as June, even as investors remain divided over the likely policy stance of Fed chair nominee Kevin Warsh.

    Risk appetite has also been supported by a resurgence in reflationary trades, sparked by Japan’s ruling Liberal Democratic Party securing a decisive majority in snap elections. The outcome has reinforced expectations of debt-funded fiscal stimulus, further underpinning the broader reflation theme.

    Adding to gold’s support, the U.S. dollar has softened amid renewed weakness in USD/JPY following strong verbal intervention from Japanese authorities. The resulting dollar pressure has helped keep the precious metal buoyant.

    That said, gold’s recovery momentum appears somewhat constrained as overall risk sentiment remains upbeat on expectations of expansionary fiscal policies in Japan. Japanese equity markets have surged to record highs, lifting broader Asian stocks and reducing demand for traditional safe havens.

    Looking ahead, it remains uncertain whether gold can sustain its rebound, as traders may grow more cautious and adjust positions ahead of Wednesday’s closely watched U.S. January jobs report.

    XAU/USD Technical Overview

    On the daily chart, XAU/USD is trading around $5,023.88, with the technical structure firmly tilted to the upside. The 21-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) has crossed above the 50-, 100-, and 200-day SMAs, and all are sloping higher, highlighting a strong and well-established bullish trend. Prices remain comfortably above these moving averages, keeping buyers in control.

    Momentum indicators also support the constructive outlook. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 57.72, holding above the neutral 50 level and well below overbought territory, suggesting steady positive momentum without signs of exhaustion. Immediate dynamic support is provided by the rising 21-day SMA at $4,873.06.

    This bullish alignment implies that any pullbacks are likely to be limited as long as prices stay above the faster moving average. A daily close below the 21-day SMA would signal a deeper corrective move, potentially exposing the 50-day SMA near $4,563.97. For now, the continued rise in medium- and long-term SMAs favors a buy-on-dips approach and keeps the broader trend firmly pointed higher.

    Sources: Fxstreet

  • Gold jumps to $5,000 as silver rallies after volatile week

    Gold prices climbed in Asian trading on Monday, with silver also advancing after precious metal markets experienced sharp volatility last week amid weaker safe-haven demand, profit-taking, and heightened uncertainty over U.S. monetary policy.

    This week’s focus is on a series of key U.S. economic releases—most notably nonfarm payrolls and consumer price index inflation data—which are expected to offer fresh signals on the outlook for the world’s largest economy. Demand for haven assets eased as the United States and Iran showed signs of progress in weekend talks, with both sides agreeing to continue negotiations over Tehran’s nuclear program.

    Spot gold rose 0.7% to $4,996.47 an ounce by 20:49 ET (01:49 GMT), after briefly touching an intraday high of $5,046.79. April gold futures gained 0.8% to $5,016.21 an ounce.

    Spot silver jumped 3.3% to $80.5330 an ounce, extending its rebound from lows near $60 an ounce seen last week. Platinum underperformed, slipping 2.3% to $2,068.45 an ounce.

    Precious metals saw sharp swings last week as investors weighed the outlook for U.S. monetary policy under President Donald Trump’s nominee for Federal Reserve chair, Kevin Warsh. His nomination boosted the dollar, triggering broad selling across metal markets as traders also took profits after strong recent gains in gold and silver.

    So far in 2026, gold and silver remain up about 15% and 5%, respectively, despite both metals retreating sharply from record highs reached in early February.

    Sources: Ambar Warrick

  • Macquarie revises its 2026 outlook for gold and silver, setting new price targets

    Macquarie has updated its 2026 outlook for gold and silver, pointing to extreme volatility and recent geopolitical and policy-driven shocks as the main catalysts.

    Strategist Peter Taylor noted that the bank had previously flagged the risk of gold reaching $5,000 per ounce amid concerns surrounding the Federal Reserve chair—a scenario that ultimately materialized. He also warned that silver was vulnerable to a sharp pullback, given its tendency to gap lower.

    Macquarie raised its average gold price forecast for the first quarter of 2026 to $4,590 per ounce from $4,300, while its second-quarter estimate was lifted to $4,300 from $4,200. The bank also increased its full-year 2026 gold forecast to $4,323 per ounce, up from $4,225.

    For silver, the Q1 target was raised sharply to $75 from $55, with the 2026 average forecast increased to $62 from $57.

    Taylor emphasized that market conditions in January were exceptionally volatile, citing events such as threats of a criminal indictment against the Fed chair by the U.S. Department of Justice, the arrest and extradition of Venezuela’s Maduro, renewed focus on Greenland alongside potential tariffs on some NATO countries, and a buildup of military forces around Iran.

    He added that while commodities broadly delivered strong gains, price movements were often detached from underlying fundamentals.

    “Overall, this resulted in one of the strongest monthly performances for the commodities complex in recent history,” Taylor said.

    Macquarie said it is holding off on revising longer-term forecasts for gold and silver, pointing to the ongoing disconnect between fundamentals and the unusually high volatility in precious metals markets.

    Sources: Sam Boughedda

  • Gold Futures in Accumulation as Cycle Signals Point to a $5,000–$5,170 Breakout

    Gold futures are currently trading around 4,841.7, holding steady above the VC PMI daily Buy 1 level at 4,765 and the Buy 2 support at 4,640. This price action suggests the market has entered a well-defined mean-reversion accumulation zone. It reflects the natural interaction between price and time cycles, where markets extend into extreme areas before reverting toward equilibrium.

    The VC PMI daily mean at 4,905 now acts as the key price magnet. A sustained close above this level would signal the return of bullish momentum, potentially paving the way for a move toward Sell 1 at 5,030 and Sell 2 at 5,170.

    On the weekly timeframe, the VC PMI mean at 5,024 aligns closely with an upper resistance cluster and Square of 9 harmonic geometry. This confluence implies that once price establishes itself above the 4,905 mean, upside momentum could accelerate rapidly toward the 5,000–5,170 zone.

    The Square of 9 framework suggests current price action is progressing through a harmonic relationship between time and price, with the next cycle window extending into mid-February. These cycle windows often mark potential inflection points, where volatility expands and directional conviction strengthens.

    From a structural perspective, maintaining levels above 4,765 preserves the bullish accumulation framework and indicates that institutional demand continues to absorb selling pressure. The deeper support at 4,640 marks the lower extreme of the daily cycle. A decisive break below that level would suggest the market is not yet ready to complete its bullish phase and could prompt a retracement toward lower weekly support zones.

    However, as long as price holds above the 4,640–4,765 support zone, the odds continue to favor a mean-reversion advance toward the 5,030 and 5,170 upside targets.

    By integrating VC PMI price levels, time cycles, and Square of 9 geometry, this framework offers a structured way to identify high-probability turning points. Markets operate in recurring phases of expansion and contraction, and these tools are designed to quantify those cycles with consistency, discipline, and objectivity.

    Sources: Patrick MontesDeOca

  • Gold and Silver Movements Depend on US–Iran Talks

    Assessing the daily charts for gold and silver futures against a backdrop of rising trader anxiety, it is clear that the outcome of the meeting between U.S. and Iranian diplomats could soon determine the next directional move once markets receive clearer signals.

    Volatility in both gold and silver futures has surged, leaving prices highly sensitive to the meeting’s outcome. Gold futures opened at $4,722.30, dipped to an intraday low of $4,671.74, and then rallied to trade near the session high around $4,907—just below immediate resistance at $4,938.55. This price action reflects mounting concern as U.S.–Iran talks begin amid fears of a potential direct conflict.

    Despite the heightened tension, the situation remains unresolved. The U.S. is reportedly pressing Iran to freeze its nuclear program, dismantle its uranium stockpile, and expand discussions to include ballistic missiles, regional proxy support, and human rights issues. Iran, however, has stated that talks will be limited strictly to its nuclear program, and it remains unclear whether these fundamental differences have been bridged.

    In recent weeks, President Donald Trump has warned of military action if a deal is not reached, while the U.S. has deployed thousands of troops and significant naval and air assets to the region. Iran has responded with threats of retaliation, including strikes on U.S. military targets in the Middle East and Israel.

    This marks the first direct engagement between U.S. and Iranian officials since last June’s Israel–Iran conflict, during which U.S. forces struck Iran’s three primary nuclear facilities. Iran has since claimed that its uranium enrichment activities ceased following those attacks.

    Meanwhile, precious metals have endured an extended selloff since last week. Initial pressure stemmed from President Trump’s nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve chair, a move interpreted as less dovish and supportive of a stronger U.S. dollar. The dollar is now on track for its strongest weekly performance since early October, with soft labor data doing little to halt its advance.

    Looking ahead, any indication that talks may ease tensions between the U.S. and Iran could spark renewed selling in gold and silver, even though both futures have already rebounded modestly from their intraday lows. At this stage, dissecting technical rebounds or exhaustion signals may be premature. Instead, the focus remains squarely on the diplomatic outcome and whether it ultimately de-escalates the situation—or deepens existing tensions.

    Looking at the current positioning of the spot gold–silver ratio, today’s session saw it test an intraday high of 72.77 and a low of 65.10, with the ratio currently trading around 66.39. This movement suggests that gold and silver futures may revisit price levels last seen between December 1 and 16, 2025—when gold futures were trading in the $4,207 to $4,340 range and silver futures were between $57 and $65.

    Gold futures are currently trading above the key 50-EMA support near $4,580, while remaining capped below the immediate 9-EMA resistance around $4,885, after successfully holding above the short-term 20-EMA support at approximately $4,824.

    Meanwhile, silver futures are holding above the key 100-EMA support near $62.692, but continue to trade below the immediate resistance at the 50-EMA around $74.252.

    In summary, any constructive outcome from the meeting could prompt renewed selling pressure across both precious metals, while renewed disagreement between the two countries may spark a bout of buying. However, any upside could remain vulnerable to fresh selling, as follow-up commentary from the U.S. President after the meeting is likely to play a decisive role in shaping market sentiment.

    Sources: Satendra Singh

  • Gold, silver extend losses as stronger dollar weighs on metals

    Gold and silver prices declined further in early Asian trading on Friday, extending steep losses from the previous session as profit-taking, easing geopolitical risks, and a stronger U.S. dollar continued to weigh on the metals complex. Silver remained the weakest performer after plunging around 15% on Thursday, while gold was trading nearly $1,000 per ounce below the record high reached last week.

    Spot gold slipped 0.6% to $4,751.13 an ounce by 19:56 ET (00:56 GMT), while April gold futures dropped 2.5% to $4,766.11. Spot silver fell 2.2% to $69.383 per ounce, although it stayed above Thursday’s lows near $63, while silver futures tumbled 8.1% to $70.378.

    OCBC analysts noted that the $70–$90 range has emerged as a key stabilization zone for silver, warning that a sustained break below this level could open the door to a deeper correction toward the $58–$60 area. They added, however, that holding within this range could allow bullish momentum to rebuild over time.

    Losses extended across the broader precious metals space, with spot platinum sliding 7.2% to $1,853.81 an ounce. Metal markets have been under sustained pressure since last week, initially triggered by U.S. President Donald Trump’s nomination of Kevin Warsh to succeed Jerome Powell as Federal Reserve chair. Warsh has been perceived as less dovish, fueling a rally in the dollar that has weighed heavily on metals.

    The U.S. currency was on track for its strongest weekly performance since early October, with softer labor market data failing to curb its advance. Meanwhile, easing tensions between the U.S. and Iran also dampened safe-haven demand for gold and silver, as the two sides were set to hold talks in Oman later in the day.

    Sources: Ambar Warrick

  • Gold Bulls Hold Their Ground Ahead of U.S. Jobs Data

    Gold saw choppy price action during Thursday’s Asian session, oscillating within a roughly $200 range. Traders are now looking to the U.S. JOLTS Job Openings report and developments on the geopolitical front—particularly U.S.–Iran tensions—for clearer directional cues.

    XAU/USD Technical Analysis

    The 21-, 50-, 100- and 200-day SMAs are all sloping higher, with the 21-day positioned above the longer-term averages, highlighting a well-established bullish structure. Prices remain above these indicators, confirming that buyers retain control. Initial support is seen at the 21-day SMA near $4,827.45, followed by the 50-day SMA at $4,532.68. The 14-day RSI has eased to a neutral 52.58, suggesting momentum is consolidating after retreating from overbought levels.

    The positive alignment of the moving averages favours a buy-on-dips approach while prices hold above the short-term average. A more pronounced correction would bring the 100-day SMA at $4,271.21 into focus, with the 200-day SMA at $3,821.77 reinforcing the broader uptrend. As long as the RSI remains above the 50 midpoint, the bullish bias stays intact, while a sustained break below it could signal scope for a deeper retracement.

    Fundamental Analysis

    Gold ended Wednesday little changed near $4,950 after choppy two-way trading. The metal initially rebounded sharply, testing the $5,100 area amid uncertainty surrounding the Federal Reserve’s future policy direction under Kevin Warsh, which weighed broadly on the U.S. dollar.

    Renewed geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and between Russia and Ukraine also lent support to gold prices, alongside concerns about potential economic data disruptions stemming from the U.S. partial government shutdown that concluded on Tuesday.

    Sentiment shifted during the U.S. session after the ISM Services PMI signalled firmer inflation pressures, prompting a rebound in the dollar. At the same time, an intensifying tech-sector sell-off on Wall Street unsettled markets, driving demand for the greenback as a safe haven.

    Additional USD strength came from renewed weakness in the Japanese yen amid rising fiscal and political concerns, which pushed USD/JPY higher and further supported the dollar.

    The USD rebound triggered a sharp pullback in gold, although buyers stepped back in near the key $4,950 psychological support level.

    Early Thursday, gold remains under pressure after once again failing above the $5,000 resistance zone. The U.S. dollar continues to advance, hitting fresh two-week highs against its major peers as risk sentiment deteriorates amid a global technology sell-off.

    The decline in global data analytics, professional services, and software stocks followed Anthropic’s launch of plug-ins for its Claude Cowork agent, which raised fresh concerns about AI-driven disruption across these industries, according to Reuters.

    Looking ahead, the delayed U.S. JOLTS Job Openings report could offer gold some relief, particularly if it reinforces expectations for two Federal Reserve rate cuts this year. Conversely, an extended sell-off in the Japanese yen could spark another wave of heavy selling pressure in gold.

    Sources: Fxstreet

  • Gold retreats as stronger dollar weighs ahead of jobs data and central bank meetings

    Gold prices gave up early gains and declined during Asian trading on Thursday, pressured by a firmer U.S. dollar as investors positioned ahead of major central bank meetings and key U.S. labor market data. Reduced safe-haven demand also weighed on bullion after the U.S. and Iran confirmed plans to hold talks on Friday, easing fears of an imminent military escalation in the Middle East.

    Spot gold slid 1.1% to $4,912.26 an ounce by 21:17 ET (02:17 GMT), while April gold futures fell 0.4% to $4,929.25 an ounce. Prices had climbed as high as $5,092.31 an ounce on Wednesday before surrendering most of those gains and slipping back below the $5,000 level by the session’s close.

    The pullback came as diplomatic developments between Washington and Tehran helped calm geopolitical concerns. At the same time, a stronger dollar weighed on precious metals, with traders favoring the greenback ahead of interest rate decisions from the Bank of England and the European Central Bank, both scheduled for Thursday.

    Additional support for the dollar came from anticipation of U.S. nonfarm payrolls data due on Friday, which could influence expectations for the Federal Reserve’s interest rate path. The greenback also extended gains from last week following President Donald Trump’s nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair. Warsh is widely seen as a less dovish candidate, potentially signaling a tighter monetary stance even as rates decline.

    Other precious metals also retreated after a brief rebound earlier in the week. Spot silver plunged 6.9% to $82.3130 an ounce after rallying nearly 6% in the previous session. While silver continues to benefit from its dual role as an industrial and precious metal and has significantly outperformed in recent months, it has faced sharp losses over the past week amid profit-taking and dollar strength.

    Spot platinum fell 3% to $2,167.59 an ounce, while benchmark copper futures on the London Metal Exchange slipped 0.6% to $12,986 per tonne.

    Sources: Ambar Warrick

  • Gold Demand Remains Structurally Strong Despite Short-Term Fed Noise

    The mainstream narrative claims that a new Fed chair will safeguard the central bank’s independence from U.S. government influence—and that this alone justifies a $1,200/oz drop in gold and a $50 collapse in silver.

    Put simply, that narrative is complete nonsense.

    Fiat currency is best thought of as meme—or even junk—money, and despite its obvious flaws, it can still enjoy periodic rallies against what many see as the ultimate form of money: gold. These countertrend moves typically emerge during bouts of speculative excess, much like the frothy conditions that have dominated markets over the past couple of months.

    From a fundamental standpoint, the gold bull market remains fully intact. Billions of gold-focused savers across China and India—along with a smaller group of informed Western investors—do not rely on central banks for validation. Their priority is building long-term wealth in gold, not accumulating ever more fiat currency and debt.

    In the context of this broader bull cycle, it makes little difference who occupies the Fed chair. What matters is whether gold is attractively priced. When it is, prudent savers see it as an opportunity to accumulate more, regardless of short-term fiat-driven narratives.

    The long-awaited “exciting buy zone” has finally come into play. Gold investors were encouraged to prepare for a meaningful dip into the $4,400 area, and that discounted opportunity has now materialized.

    Sustainable wealth building is not about predicting prices, but about preparing for unexpected moves. This pullback unfolded over just a few days, leaving unprepared investors confused and still focused on guessing what happens next.

    The key development now is that the $5,600 region has emerged as a major accumulation zone on any future pullback. Gold investors should already be positioning themselves to take advantage of that opportunity if and when it presents itself.

    As for silver, the recent price sell-off was “super-sized,” driven by large and heavily leveraged bets against fiat currencies. That decline ultimately found support at the $70 buy zone, aligning perfectly with gold’s move into the $4,400 area.

    Gold remains the undisputed leader of the precious metals complex. If silver investors and mining-stock enthusiasts take their cues from gold bullion, they position themselves to build substantial and durable wealth. The most likely near-term path for silver is a broad trading range between $70 and $120, followed by a powerful upside breakout that could propel prices toward the next target zone of $170–$200.

    Over the longer term, silver has the potential to trade well above $1,000, largely because governments worldwide—both in the East and the West—continue to cling to fiat currencies and debt rather than returning to sound money anchored in gold.

    A new 40-year inflation cycle began in 2020 and is unlikely to end until U.S. interest rates reach record highs. Unlike the cycle’s conclusion in 1980, however, elevated rates this time are unlikely to curb inflation, as it is being driven by ongoing government policies rather than purely monetary conditions.

    Another perspective on U.S. rates: the incoming Fed chair is more likely to lean toward fiscal restraint on a debt-addicted U.S. government than to dispense easy-money policies of QE and rate cuts. Such a stance would have implications for long-term sovereign yields worldwide, and global money managers are likely to continue shifting capital into gold as a strategic response.

    As interest rates continue their relentless climb in the years ahead, governments will inevitably confront their “Queen Gold maker.” They will be forced to begin replacing fragile fiat currencies with gold—or face effective financial ruin.

    As for robots, they will simply become another cost burden for citizens already trapped in stagflation. As automation expands rapidly and robot populations eventually outnumber humans, workers will be left competing for a shrinking pool of jobs. Confronted with government-driven stagflation and lacking the protection of gold savings, many will endure severe financial stress—conditions that would be further worsened by a stock market crash.

    As for the miners, they too presented exceptional buying opportunities when gold dipped to $4,400. The CDNX is now starting to emerge from a decade-long base, with price action that closely resembles gold’s breakout above $2,000. The initial rally may appear deceptive, but it is genuine—because this type of breakout unfolds as a process rather than a single, short-lived move. Notably, trading volumes across CDNX-listed stocks have surged, reinforcing the strength of the move.

    While pockets of speculative excess briefly appeared in gold and silver bullion, such froth has been absent in the mining sector. Several silver explorers nearing production are projecting all-in sustaining costs well below $20, while gold explorers with large-scale projects are reporting AISC figures under $2,000. The conclusion is clear: junior gold and silver miners may represent the most undervalued segment in market history.

    And what about the senior miners? The GDX versus gold chart is striking. Since the 2015 low—when the head of a massive inverse head-and-shoulders pattern began to form—I’ve been guiding investors through this setup. That structure points not merely to years, but potentially decades of strong performance for gold equities. In alignment with the CDNX-to-fiat picture, the breakout process is now underway.

    The GDX daily chart delivers a real “wow factor.” The latest five-wave advance was remarkable—and signs suggest a new leg higher may already be unfolding. Notably, GDX’s recent pullback held well above its October highs, even as gold retraced back to that level. That kind of relative strength is a powerful signal that further upside is likely.

    Even if gold consolidates between $5,600 and $4,400, and silver oscillates between $120 and $70, GDX and many of its underlying stocks could still push on to new highs. With 2026 marking the Chinese Year of the Fire Horse—symbolizing bold action and the fight for freedom—the question arises: are gold and silver equities poised for their own moment of liberation, breaking out to extraordinary new levels? The evidence suggests they are.

    Sources: Stewart Thomson

  • Gold jumps back above $5,000 an ounce as Iran tensions fuel safe-haven demand

    Gold prices climbed back above key technical levels during Asian trading on Wednesday, as renewed signs of tension between the United States and Iran fueled safe-haven demand for the precious metal.

    Bullion extended its rebound from Tuesday after sharply recovering from recent losses, with dip-buying activity also remaining strong following last week’s more than $1,000 price sell-off.

    Spot gold gained 2% to $5,048.37 per ounce by 21:00 ET (02:00 GMT), while April gold futures advanced 2.8% to $5,017.19 per ounce.

    Other precious metals also moved higher on Wednesday, building on the rebound seen in the previous session. Spot silver gained 0.5% to $85.5245 per ounce, while spot platinum climbed 1.7% to $2,256.04 per ounce.

    Iran concerns return ahead of upcoming nuclear talks

    Renewed concerns over escalating tensions between the United States and Iran were a key catalyst for safe-haven demand, particularly after overnight reports that U.S. forces shot down an Iranian drone over the Arabian Sea.

    In a separate development, Iranian gunboats were reported to have approached a U.S.-linked oil tanker in the Strait of Hormuz.

    These incidents partially offset earlier statements from both Tehran and Washington indicating that talks would be held this Friday. News of the planned negotiations had previously eased market anxiety and weighed on safe-haven demand for gold.

    Gold’s recent pullback was largely driven by expectations that U.S. President Donald Trump’s nominee for Federal Reserve chair, Kevin Warsh, may adopt a less dovish stance than markets had anticipated. This fueled a sharp rally in the U.S. dollar, pressuring precious metals, while gold also faced profit-taking after surging to a record high near $5,600 per ounce last week.

    Despite the recent decline, gold remains up nearly 15% so far in 2026.

    ANZ analysts noted that the core fundamentals underpinning gold’s strength—safe-haven demand, robust physical buying, and ongoing central bank purchases—remain firmly intact.

    Sources: Ambar Warrick

  • Precious metals are starting to lose some of their luster.

    Although gold, silver, and platinum were the top-performing commodities over the past year, they came under pressure late last week.

    Metals suffer a sharp pullback after hitting record highs.

    Silver and gold suffered a sharp sell-off early Friday, dragging mining stocks and related ETFs lower. After an exceptional run in 2025, both metals have begun to give back part of their gains. Silver slid roughly 15%, falling back below the $100 level, while gold dropped about 7% and struggled to hold above $5,000. Weakness spread across the sector, with platinum and palladium also declining by around 14% and 12%, respectively.

    Mining equities and ETFs came under heavy pressure. Producers such as Fresnillo, along with silver miners Endeavour and First Majestic, posted double-digit losses in pre-market trading. Silver-focused ETFs were hit even harder, with some falling as much as 25%.

    Following last year’s explosive rally—when silver surged 150% and gold gained 65%—the market appears to be undergoing a correction. Overcrowded positioning, uncertainty surrounding the Federal Reserve’s policy outlook, and shifts in geopolitics and the U.S. dollar have all fueled the sell-off.

    The move underscores that even traditional safe-haven assets are vulnerable to sharp volatility. When positioning becomes one-sided, even fundamentally strong markets can reverse quickly. Investors are now reassessing exposure, with some stepping in to buy the dip while others remain on the sidelines.

    Top-Performing Commodities Over the Past Year

    The three best performers are silver (+273%), platinum (+178%), and gold (+89%). These mark the strongest year-over-year gains for the metals since 1979–1980.

    Can oil keep pace with the broader commodities rally?

    The Bloomberg Commodity Index has surged, but the gains are not being driven by energy. Instead, strength is coming from other commodities, highlighting an unusual source of the rally.

    Germany’s gold reserves are valued at nearly €500 billion.

    Germany’s gold reserves are now valued at €496 billion. The Bundesbank holds 3,352 tonnes in total, with more than 1,200 tonnes stored in New York and the rest kept in Frankfurt and London.

    The Swiss franc strengthens against the U.S. dollar.

    While market attention remains focused on the U.S. dollar and the yen, the Swiss franc has quietly climbed to its strongest level in more than a decade.

    Here’s why the move matters globally:

    The “safe-haven” appeal

    Investors are gravitating toward stability. With gold pushing above $5,000 an ounce and political uncertainty weighing on major economies, the Swiss franc has reasserted itself as a preferred refuge. The currency is up about 3% so far this year, building on a strong 14% gain last year.

    The Swiss National Bank’s policy challenge

    Such strength is a double-edged sword. While it helps keep inflation exceptionally low—currently around 0.1%—it also increases pressure on Switzerland’s export-driven economy. This leaves the Swiss National Bank facing a difficult decision:

    Cut interest rates? With rates already at 0%, a return to negative territory would be a step policymakers are reluctant to take.

    Here is a refined paraphrase that flows naturally from the previous section:

    Intervene? Direct action in currency markets risks accusations of manipulation and could spark diplomatic frictions.

    The global backdrop

    When the world’s primary reserve currency—the U.S. dollar—shows signs of instability, capital doesn’t disappear; it reallocates. Increasingly, those flows are moving toward perceived safe havens, with the Swiss franc emerging as a key beneficiary.

    In an era of heightened market volatility, genuine stability has become one of the rarest—and most valuable—assets.

    U.S. companies account for 20 of the world’s 25 largest market capitalizations.

    The remaining five companies are based outside the U.S., with one each from Europe, China, Taiwan, South Korea, and Saudi Arabia.

    Within the United States, California dominates with six of the world’s largest companies by market value. Texas and Washington follow with three each, while New York is home to two. Nebraska, Arkansas, Indiana, New Jersey, Idaho, and Colorado each host one of the top global firms.

    The endowment model faces mounting challenges.

    For years, the endowment model—heavily tilted toward private assets—was held up as the gold standard for long-term investment success. Its track record was so compelling that institutions across the globe rushed to replicate it.

    But every “secret sauce” loses its edge once it becomes common knowledge. As capital flooded into the same private markets, the once-distinct advantage began to erode.

    Today, the space is increasingly crowded, and the classic endowment model is showing signs of strain. At the same time, more traditional portfolios with greater exposure to public markets are quietly regaining relevance.

    The drivers are clear: too much money is chasing a limited pool of private opportunities, alpha in private equity is harder to extract, and liquid, public-market portfolios are proving more resilient than many expected.

    This raises a critical question: is the era of private-heavy allocations coming to an end, or merely pausing? It may be time to revisit the “Yale model,” with a sharper focus on less congested private strategies and new sources of return—especially if the strong 60/40 performance of the past one and three years turns out to be more cyclical than enduring.

    Sources: Charles-Henry Monchau

  • JPM hikes gold price outlook on strong central bank and investor demand

    JPMorgan has lifted its year-end 2026 gold price forecast to $6,300 an ounce, pointing to sustained and strengthening demand from central banks and investors despite the recent bout of sharp price volatility.

    Gold and silver both saw steep pullbacks late last week after rapid rallies left prices overstretched, with the move partly driven by a rebound in the U.S. dollar. Even so, JPMorgan analysts said the broader environment continues to favor gold, arguing that the “longer-term rally momentum will remain intact” and that they remain “firmly bullish” over the medium term, supported by a structural diversification trend.

    A key factor behind the higher forecast is stronger-than-expected buying from the official sector. Central banks purchased around 230 tonnes of gold in the fourth quarter, taking total buying for 2025 to roughly 863 tonnes, even as prices moved above $4,000 an ounce. JPMorgan now expects about 800 tonnes of central bank demand in 2026, citing ongoing reserve diversification that still has room to run.

    Investor demand has also picked up, with analysts highlighting rising ETF holdings, solid physical bar and coin purchases, and broader portfolio allocations to gold as a hedge against macroeconomic and geopolitical risks.

    “Gold remains a dynamic, multi-faceted portfolio hedge, and investor demand has continued to exceed our previous expectations,” analysts led by Gregory Shearer wrote. “As a result, we now see sufficient demand from central banks and investors to push gold prices to $6,300 per ounce by the end of 2026.”

    While acknowledging the speed of the rally, the analysts dismissed concerns that prices are nearing unsustainable levels, noting that demand remains well above the historical threshold needed to keep the market tightening. “While the air gets thinner at higher price levels, we are not yet close to a point where the structural gold rally risks collapsing under its own weight,” they added.

    On silver, JPMorgan struck a more cautious tone following the metal’s sharp surge and subsequent pullback. Without central banks acting as consistent dip buyers, the analysts said they are “somewhat apprehensive” about the risk of a deeper near-term correction in silver relative to gold.

    Even so, they see a higher average price floor of around $75 to $80 an ounce, arguing that silver is unlikely to fully give up its recent gains. Over the longer term, JPMorgan expects higher prices to reshape fundamentals, gradually easing the supply-demand imbalance that underpinned silver’s recent rally.

    Sources: Vahid Karaahmetovic

  • Global markets update: Futures retreat, gold continues sliding, Bitcoin nudges down

    U.S. stock index futures edge lower as a sharp selloff in gold and silver weighs on investor sentiment ahead of a packed week of major corporate earnings and key economic releases. Bitcoin continues to slide after dropping below $80,000 over the weekend. Elsewhere, Oracle signals plans for fresh fundraising, while speculation over potential executive changes at Walt Disney grows ahead of its upcoming quarterly results.

    Futures edge lower

    U.S. equity index futures moved lower on Monday, pointing to a continuation of last session’s losses at the start of the new trading week.

    As of 03:11 ET (08:11 GMT), Dow futures were down 323 points, or 0.7%, S&P 500 futures had declined 62 points, or 0.9%, and Nasdaq 100 futures were lower by 291 points, or 1.1%.

    Market participants are closely watching a heavy slate of upcoming corporate earnings alongside a new monthly jobs report. Together, these releases could shed light on the health of the U.S. economy and test the resilience of a stock market rally now in its fourth year.

    Beyond ongoing questions over the durability of the artificial intelligence-driven rally, investors are also weighing the implications of President Donald Trump’s nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve Chair. If confirmed by the Senate, Warsh would bring his long-held calls for a shift in the monetary policy framework to the world’s most influential central bank.

    Gold and silver extend their selloff

    A sharp decline in both gold and silver, continuing the historic drop seen on Friday, weighed heavily on market sentiment—especially in Asia, where equities broadly fell.

    Following a nearly 10% plunge late last week, spot gold fell another 4.9% to $4,626.80 per ounce by 03:27 ET, slipping well below the $5,000 mark it had just recently surpassed. Silver, which had benefited from speculative interest and industrial demand, also faced selling pressure but had somewhat stabilized around $79 an ounce as of 03:30 ET.

    Analysts attribute the metals’ losses to a stronger U.S. dollar and widespread profit-taking after their significant rally in recent months.

    Investors also showed concern about Kevin Warsh’s potentially hawkish stance in the long term. Although Warsh—formerly a Federal Reserve governor—has supported President Trump’s calls for sharply lower interest rates, he has been critical of the Fed’s asset purchase programs.

    “Warsh is viewed as the most inflation-focused candidate for the Fed chair, reducing the chances of aggressive monetary easing. This sparked a wave of selling, with gold enduring its steepest decline in four decades,” ANZ analysts noted.

    Bitcoin continues to decline

    The risk-averse mood extended to cryptocurrencies, with Bitcoin dropping over 2% to $76,892.4. On Saturday, the leading digital currency fell below the $80,000 mark, continuing its decline from Friday. Some investors worried that Kevin Warsh might support shrinking the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet, which could reduce liquidity in the financial system.

    Larger Fed balance sheets have historically supported cryptocurrencies by injecting cash into money markets, providing backing for riskier assets.

    This latest slide marks another downturn for Bitcoin since reaching its all-time high last October. Once buoyed by optimism over increased cash flows and a friendlier regulatory environment under Trump, the token has now lost about one-third of its value.

    With turmoil spreading across stocks, commodities, and crypto, Jonas Goltermann, Deputy Chief Markets Economist at Capital Economics, described the past few days as “unusually hectic […] for financial markets” in a recent note.

    Oracle announces plans for new fundraising

    On Sunday evening, Oracle Corporation announced plans to raise new capital in 2026 to support the expansion of its AI and cloud infrastructure amid rising demand for computing power.

    The company aims to generate between $45 billion and $50 billion in gross proceeds during 2026, utilizing a mix of debt and equity financing.

    About half of the funds will come from a combination of equity derivatives and common stock, according to a company statement.

    Oracle plans to raise its debt funding through a single, one-time issuance of investment-grade senior unsecured bonds in early 2026, with no additional debt expected afterward.

    Analysts at Vital Knowledge highlighted that roughly half of the total funding will come from equity-linked securities, including a $20 billion at-the-market (ATM) common equity program.

    They noted, “Oracle’s $20 billion ATM offering is the first time a major tech company has been compelled to raise equity since the AI boom began. If this signals a shift toward greater fiscal caution in the industry, it could lead to a slower overall pace of spending.”

    Disney set to release earnings

    Walt Disney is set to release its earnings before the opening bell on Monday.

    While the company’s continued focus on its streaming services, alongside its vital parks and studios divisions, will be closely watched, much of the attention may center on leadership succession.

    According to the Wall Street Journal, Disney CEO Bob Iger has informed colleagues that he intends to step down and reduce his day-to-day involvement before his contract expires on December 31.

    Board members are expected to convene soon to decide on Iger’s successor, with several media outlets naming Experiences division head Josh D’Amaro as the likely frontrunner.

    Sources: Scott Kanowsky

  • Weekly FX Outlook: EUR/USD, Crude Oil, Bitcoin, Silver & Gold

    Fundamental Analysis & Market Sentiment

    Last week’s best trade ideas were as follows:

    • Long EUR/USD after a daily close above 1.1866, resulting in a 0.24% loss.
    • Long Silver, which ended with a loss of 18.62%.
    • Long Gold after a daily close above $5,000, producing a 2.26% loss.

    Taken together, these positions generated a total loss of 21.12%, or 7.04% per asset. While this was a sizable drawdown, the broader performance of my weekly forecasts over recent weeks remains positive, as earlier gains were exceptionally strong and more than offset this setback.

    Key market data from last week:

    • U.S. Federal Reserve policy meeting: No surprises, with interest rates left unchanged.
    • U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI): The standout data release of the week. Inflation came in far hotter than expected, with headline PPI rising 0.5% month-on-month and core PPI increasing 0.7%, versus forecasts of just 0.2% for both. This reinforced a more hawkish Fed outlook, lifted the U.S. dollar, and accelerated the sharp reversal in Silver (and Gold). As a result, expectations for a second U.S. rate cut in 2026 were pushed back to October.
    • Bank of Canada policy meeting: No change to interest rates, as anticipated.
    • Australian CPI: Inflation exceeded expectations, with an annual rate of 3.8% versus 3.5% forecast, strengthening the case for possible RBA rate hikes and supporting the Australian dollar early in the week.
    • Canadian GDP: Slightly weaker than expected, showing zero month-on-month growth.
    • U.S. unemployment claims: In line with forecasts.

    While PPI and Australian inflation influenced market moves, two broader developments likely had an even greater impact:

    • Federal Reserve leadership: President Trump announced his nominee for the next Fed Chair, Kevin Warsh. Although regarded as a hawk, Warsh is now thought to favor lower interest rates. The nomination contributed to the collapse of the Silver rally and provided additional support to the U.S. dollar.
    • Geopolitical tensions: The U.S. continued its military buildup near Iran, raising the risk of a wider regional conflict. Polymarket currently assigns a high probability to a U.S. strike on Iran in March, despite President Trump still referencing the possibility of a diplomatic agreement. These tensions appear to be supporting crude oil prices, with WTI crude reaching a new four-month high last week.

    Meanwhile, the S&P 500 briefly pushed to a fresh record above 7,000. Although the index remains resilient, upside momentum is limited. In my view, a clearer resolution to U.S.–Iran tensions is needed before a more decisive directional move can develop.

    The Week Ahead: 2nd – 6th February

    The most significant data releases for the coming week, ranked by expected market impact, include:

    • U.S. Average Hourly Earnings and Non-Farm Payrolls
    • Preliminary University of Michigan Inflation Expectations
    • European Central Bank main refinancing rate decision and monetary policy statement
    • Bank of England official bank rate decision, voting breakdown, and monetary policy report
    • Reserve Bank of Australia cash rate decision, rate statement, and monetary policy statement
    • U.S. JOLTS job openings
    • Preliminary University of Michigan consumer sentiment
    • U.S. ISM services PMI
    • U.S. ISM manufacturing PMI
    • U.S. unemployment rate
    • New Zealand unemployment rate
    • Canadian unemployment rate
    • U.S. weekly unemployment claims

    This will be a particularly busy and potentially market-moving week, with three major central banks delivering policy decisions. Please note that Friday is a public holiday in New Zealand, which may reduce liquidity in related markets.

    Monthly Forecast February 2025

    For the month of January 2026, I forecasted that the USD/JPY currency pair would rise in value. Unfortunately, this was a losing trade.

    For the month of February, I forecast that the EUR/USD currency pair will rise in value.

    Weekly Forecast 2nd February 2026

    Last week, three currency crosses experienced unusually high volatility, prompting the following weekly trade forecasts:

    • Short NZD/JPY, which resulted in a 0.57% loss.
    • Short AUD/JPY, ending with a 0.32% loss.
    • Short NZD/CAD, producing a 0.39% loss.

    Overall, the Swiss franc and the New Zealand dollar emerged as the strongest major currencies of the week, while the U.S. dollar was the weakest. Market conditions were relatively subdued, with directional volatility dropping sharply—only 11% of major currency pairs and crosses moved by more than 1% over the week.

    Technical Analysis

    Key Support/Resistance Levels for Popular Pairs

    US Dollar Index

    Last week, the U.S. Dollar Index formed a notably large bullish pin bar, rejecting a fresh four-year low. On its own, this price action is bullish. However, the broader technical structure remains bearish, with the index still trading below its levels from 13 and 26 weeks ago. As a result, the technical outlook for the U.S. dollar is mixed.

    The nomination of Kevin Warsh as Federal Reserve Chair provided some support to the dollar during the week. Nevertheless, the forward outlook remains uncertain, and I believe the most attractive trading opportunities in the near term are likely to be independent of U.S. dollar direction.

    EUR/USD

    The EUR/USD pair recently staged a strong long-term bullish breakout as the U.S. dollar accelerated lower and printed a new 3.5-year low. However, the move quickly failed, with price retreating sharply and finding minimal follow-through support.

    This price action suggests the breakout may have been a temporary spike, although the potential for a sustained bullish trend should not be dismissed, as EUR/USD has historically shown a tendency to trend cleanly once momentum is established.

    That said, the appointment of a new Fed Chair and the renewed strength in the U.S. dollar late in the week—driven by hotter inflation data—argue for a more cautious stance.

    Accordingly, I would only consider a long position following a daily (New York close) above 1.2039.

    WTI Crude Oil

    WTI crude oil has surged strongly in recent sessions as the risk of a regional conflict centered on Iran has intensified. Prediction markets are currently assigning a high probability to a U.S. strike on Iran in March, a scenario that could significantly disrupt global crude supply. Against this backdrop, prices pushed to a new four-month high by the end of last week, with a daily close above $66.25 marking a potential six-month high.

    However, two important cautions should be noted:

    • While a daily close above $66.25 would typically attract trend-following buying, the current moving average structure does not confirm a bullish setup. Even in the event of military conflict, the move could prove to be a short-lived spike, especially if a rapid U.S. victory follows, potentially resulting in a failed breakout.
    • Unlike recent Democratic administrations, the Trump administration is likely to take aggressive steps to suppress crude oil prices, which could cap or reverse upside momentum.

    Bitcoin

    BTC/USD has finally completed a decisive bearish breakdown below the long-term support zone just above $81,000. Price is now firmly established beneath this level and has pushed to a new nine-month low, a development that is technically significant and clearly bearish.

    While equities and precious metals have rallied strongly in recent months, Bitcoin peaked at a record high several months ago and has since trended steadily lower. This divergence highlights a broader downturn across the crypto sector, with Bitcoin now showing clear signs of structural weakness.

    Despite early expectations that Bitcoin would fundamentally reshape global finance, real-world adoption remains limited outside parts of Africa. Practical usability is still constrained, and its underlying value proposition remains uncertain.

    Although I generally avoid short-selling, Bitcoin appears entrenched in a long-term bearish trend. I would not consider buying at current levels. Short positions may be worth considering, but only with strict risk management, as shorting is best suited to experienced traders.

    XAG/USD

    Silver experienced an exceptionally volatile week, surging more than 15% to hit a new all-time high and the long-discussed $120 options target, before suffering a dramatic reversal. The sell-off unfolded sharply on Thursday and Friday—particularly Friday—when prices plunged 28% in a single session.

    I had previously cautioned that the move was highly vulnerable to a sharp correction, and that while a long position was justified, it should be taken with a reduced position size.

    The sheer magnitude of the collapse, even with some bullish undertones and modest resilience in the bounce from the weekly lows, strongly suggests that another record high is unlikely in the near term. This extraordinary rally appears to be finished, and the most probable next phase is a period of erratic consolidation, marked by large swings and gradually diminishing volatility.

    XAU/USD

    Much of the analysis above regarding Silver also applies to Gold. That said, gold’s volatility was noticeably lower, and its price action showed greater resilience at the lows.

    While gold is also likely to enter a period of sideways consolidation, the underlying structure suggests it may recover to the upside more quickly than silver.

    Bottom Line

    My preferred trade for the coming week is:

    • Long EUR/USD, contingent on a daily (New York) close above 1.2039.

    Sources: Adam Lemon

  • How does a weaker dollar affect gold and Bitcoin?

    Gold and Bitcoin have diverged sharply in recent months, with Yardeni Research arguing that currency movements are becoming a key driver of that split.

    In its latest report, the firm revisited the long-standing question of whether Bitcoin can be considered “digital gold,” pointing out that both assets are difficult to value since neither generates interest or dividends. However, Yardeni cautioned that Bitcoin’s purely digital form could make it “potentially vulnerable someday to hacking by quantum-computing algorithms,” whereas gold’s main drawback is the need for physical storage.

    Bitcoin’s volatility has persisted. Yardeni noted that the cryptocurrency surged to a record near $125,000 in late 2025 before retreating toward $90,000.

    Gold, by contrast, has been in a strong uptrend since it “decisively broke out” in March 2024. Prices have climbed roughly 2.5 times since then, moving above $3,000 an ounce in early 2025. The firm maintains its long-term outlook that gold could reach $10,000 by the end of the decade.

    According to Yardeni Research, recent currency shifts are widening the gap between the two assets. The firm said a weaker U.S. dollar tends to hurt Bitcoin because it lowers Bitcoin’s value in other currencies, potentially encouraging foreign investors to sell. Some of those flows, it suggested, may be rotating into gold instead.

    In addition, a softer dollar can put upward pressure on U.S. inflation, which would further support gold prices. Yardeni also noted that dollar weakness generally favors U.S. investors in overseas markets, reinforcing its overweight stance on emerging-market equities.

    Sources: Investing

  • Alamos CEO says gold prices may approach $6,000 by year-end

    Gold prices climbed to a new record above $5,600 an ounce this week, as persistent economic and geopolitical uncertainty continued to push investors toward traditional safe-haven assets.

    The metal is up more than 17% so far this year, building on last year’s strong advance. Gold’s sustained rally has been driven by a combination of heightened global uncertainty, expectations of lower U.S. interest rates, and consistent purchases by central banks as part of a broader move to diversify away from the U.S. dollar.

    Market anxiety has intensified in recent days after President Donald Trump said he intends to impose new tariffs on imports from South Korea, while concerns over a potential partial U.S. government shutdown re-emerged ahead of the January 30 funding deadline.

    Following bullion’s surge to record highs, Investing.com spoke with John McCluskey, chief executive of Canadian miner Alamos Gold (NYSE: AGI), to explore the factors behind the rally and his outlook for gold prices over the rest of the year.

    To what extent is today’s gold price driven by long-term structural demand, as opposed to short-term momentum and fear of missing out (FOMO)?

    McCluskey noted that gold prices are currently strongly underpinned by sustained central bank purchases from at least six countries, including China, Russia, and their trading partners. This long-term structural demand has steadily pushed gold higher over the past decade, with prices hitting a new peak above $5,000 this week.

    That rise has increasingly drawn in retail investors. According to fund managers, gold funds are experiencing record inflows, which is boosting both bullion prices and gold equities. Overall, structural demand remains the primary driver of current prices, but it has now spilled over into momentum-driven buying from retail investors.

    How much does gold’s outlook hinge on additional U.S. interest rate cuts, and what would be the impact if the easing cycle ends earlier than markets anticipate?

    “While U.S. Fed rate cuts may play a role, I don’t think gold’s outlook hinges on further easing, as prices have been—and continue to be—strongly supported by central bank buying. This trend has been in place for around a decade, and I believe there is still plenty of upside, with or without rate cuts,” McCluskey said.

    Would a potential easing of global geopolitical tensions be sufficient to trigger a significant pullback in gold prices?

    “While de-escalation could weigh on gold prices, there are numerous other tailwinds supporting the market, and I don’t see those trends fading anytime soon,” McCluskey told Investing.com.

    “I expect gold prices to continue rising. And it’s not just gold mining CEOs saying this—chief executives at major banks are also pointing to a stronger gold outlook,” he added.

    What is your outlook for gold prices by year-end?

    I believe the fundamental drivers supporting gold remain firmly in place, pointing to a sustained bull market. With retail investors only now beginning to participate, gold could consolidate around the current $5,000 level and potentially move toward analysts’ year-end targets in the $5,400–$6,000 range.

    Despite hitting record highs earlier in the week, precious and industrial metals retreated on Friday, as gold, silver, and copper declined amid profit-taking. The pullback followed a reassessment of expectations for aggressive U.S. interest rate cuts, alongside a stronger dollar.

    Spot gold slid more than 6% to $5,042 by 10:55 ET (15:55 GMT).

    The dollar gained after President Donald Trump announced former Federal Reserve Governor Kevin Warsh as his choice to lead the central bank, boosting the greenback against major currencies.

    Sources: Investing

  • Gold Maintains Strong Momentum While Rotating Deep Within Upper Volatility Bands

    Gold futures continue to show strong bullish momentum, holding well above the VC PMI Daily Pivot near $5,329, reinforcing higher-timeframe trend alignment across both daily and weekly cycles. The sharp, near-vertical advance that began earlier this week is characteristic of classic “escape velocity” behavior, with price accelerating away from the mean during a synchronized time-and-price harmonic window.

    Within the VC PMI framework, price is now rotating inside the upper volatility band. Daily Sell 1 near $5,465 defines the first layer of structural resistance, while Daily Sell 2 around $5,588 marks the outer boundary of the current expansion envelope. The recent intraday peak near $5,626.8 indicates price is pressing into a late-stage extension phase, where probabilities begin to shift toward consolidation or orderly mean reversion rather than continued vertical advance.

    Square of 9 geometry supports this view. Angular projections from the latest weekly VC PMI Pivot near $4,864 project resistance harmonics into the $5,560–$5,620 region, closely overlapping with the Daily Sell 2 band. This confluence of time, price, and geometric resistance elevates the likelihood of a near-term inflection window.

    On the downside, rotational support remains layered at Daily Buy 1 near $5,205 and Daily Buy 2 near $5,070, with deeper mean support at the weekly VC PMI Pivot around $4,864 should downside volatility expand.

    Cycle analysis further identifies a key timing cluster between January 29 and February 2, derived from overlapping 30-day and 60-day harmonics. Historically, such windows tend to resolve momentum conditions via either range compression or a counter-trend rotation back toward the VC PMI mean. Momentum indicators, including MACD divergence behavior, suggest upside efficiency is fading, reinforcing the risk of a pause or rotational pullback rather than immediate continuation.

    From a strategic standpoint, trend-following participants may continue to trail protective stops below $5,205, while mean-reversion traders will look for rejection signals within the $5,560–$5,620 Square of 9 resistance arc. A sustained close above $5,588 would negate the near-term mean-reversion risk and reopen the path toward higher geometric extensions.

    Sources: Golden Meadow

  • Gold volatility surges as prices behave like a meme stock

    Gold’s most recent move was sharp, chaotic, and relentless. With volatility running high and prices stretched, managing risk is just as critical as getting the direction right.

    • Gold shows capitulation-like price behavior
    • Volatility jumps to multi-year highs
    • Prices look stretched after a rapid upside surge
    • Position sizing and risk management become paramount

    Gold shows meme-stock–like trading behavior

    Gold behaved less like a classic safe haven and more like a meme stock on Thursday, surging nearly $100 within minutes during early Asian trading. Prices briefly spiked toward $5,600 before reversing just as quickly. The sheer speed and magnitude of the move felt like capitulation in real time, likely exacerbated by thin liquidity during the transition from North American to Asian market hours.

    Although the price surge began around the same time, a CNN report later surfaced indicating that the U.S. was considering new military strikes against Iran. However, given that geopolitical tensions have been elevated for weeks rather than emerging suddenly, much of that risk was likely already priced in. In that sense, the headline appears more like a catalyst than the underlying cause of the move.

    Some traders also cited comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell after the January FOMC meeting, in which he downplayed any macroeconomic signal from gold’s record highs. Still, those remarks seem to have played only a minor role, coming several hours before the most volatile phase of the price action unfolded.

    Volatility jumps sharply higher

    While today’s spike has understandably drawn attention, it is not an isolated event, instead forming part of a broader and accelerating expansion in volatility across the gold market.

    As illustrated above, the Gold Volatility Index (GVZ) has climbed to its highest level since the early days of the COVID-19 lockdowns in 2020, highlighting just how extreme price action in the traditional safe haven has become. GVZ measures implied volatility in gold options, offering insight into the magnitude of price swings the options market is anticipating. The surge suggests the market has entered a markedly different volatility regime, one in which unusually large moves are occurring with increasing frequency.

    The broader volatility environment is also clearly visible on the daily chart. Gold is trading well above its upper Bollinger Band, highlighting the speed and magnitude of the recent acceleration relative to prior conditions. Daily trading ranges have expanded sharply, with the 14-day ATR elevated at 117.56—making $100-plus moves routine rather than exceptional. Meanwhile, the 14-day RSI sits deep in overbought territory at 91.15, reinforcing that while the broader uptrend remains intact, price action is increasingly stretched and unstable.

    Risk management takes center stage

    In short, this is an exceptionally high-volatility environment where price behavior is far from normal. Gold has surged rapidly, leaving prices highly extended and vulnerable to sharp moves in both directions, even as the broader uptrend remains in place. In such conditions, traditional technical signals often lose reliability, making risk management and position sizing especially critical—particularly with mean-reversion risks running high.

    Sources: David Scutt

  • Gold hits new record above $5,200 as Fed decision looms

    Gold prices climbed toward a fresh record near $5,220 during Asian trading on Wednesday, extending gains on a weaker U.S. dollar, persistent geopolitical tensions and ongoing economic uncertainty. Investors are now awaiting the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision later in the day for further direction.

    Fundamental Analysis Overview

    Expectations of further policy easing by the U.S. Federal Reserve, persistent selling pressure on the U.S. dollar, continued central bank purchases, and record inflows into exchange-traded funds have provided strong support for gold prices.

    Although U.S. President Donald Trump stepped back from a tariff threat after saying a framework agreement had been reached on a future Greenland deal with NATO, the brief episode raised concerns about the reliability of global alliances. These doubts, combined with the prolonged Russia–Ukraine conflict, continue to fuel safe-haven demand for gold. Russia launched another large-scale drone and missile assault on Ukraine during the second day of U.S.-mediated peace talks in Abu Dhabi over the weekend, which concluded without an agreement. While trilateral discussions are set to resume on February 1, expectations for a breakthrough in the nearly four-year conflict remain low, keeping geopolitical risks elevated.

    Further weighing on market sentiment, Trump warned on Saturday that the U.S. could impose a 100% tariff on Canada should it proceed with a trade agreement with China. The possibility of renewed tensions over Greenland and other unpredictable policy moves from the Trump administration has undermined confidence in the U.S. dollar. As a result, the Dollar Index (DXY) has fallen to its lowest level since September 2025, pressured further by market expectations that the Fed could cut rates twice more in 2025. This environment continues to favor non-yielding assets such as gold, particularly as attention turns to the two-day FOMC meeting that began on Tuesday.

    The Federal Reserve is set to announce its policy decision on Wednesday and is widely expected to keep interest rates unchanged. As such, investor focus will center on the accompanying statement and Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s press conference for signals on the future policy path. Any guidance on the timing and pace of potential rate cuts will be critical in shaping near-term dollar movements and determining gold’s next directional move. In the shorter term, U.S. Durable Goods Orders data due later Monday could generate trading opportunities during the North American session.

    On the demand side, the People’s Bank of China extended its gold-buying streak for a fourteenth consecutive month in December. Other emerging market central banks, including those of Poland, India, and Brazil, were also active buyers in late 2025 and early 2026. Meanwhile, global investment demand through gold ETFs rose 25% in 2025, with total holdings increasing to 4,025.4 tonnes from 3,224.2 tonnes a year earlier. Assets under management climbed to $558.9 billion, reinforcing gold’s bullish case and supporting expectations for a continuation of the well-established uptrend amid a favorable fundamental backdrop.

    XAU/USD Technical Outlook

    The rising channel originating from $4,464.07 continues to support the broader uptrend, with upside currently constrained near $5,101.21. The MACD remains in positive territory, although the histogram is starting to narrow, indicating fading momentum even as the MACD line stays above the signal line. Meanwhile, the RSI is elevated around 78, signaling overbought conditions that may limit near-term gains and favor consolidation near the upper boundary of the channel.

    Should prices fail to break decisively above the channel top, a corrective move toward support at $4,934.92 could develop. Further contraction in the MACD histogram would strengthen the case for a pullback, while a downturn in the RSI from overbought levels would point to mean reversion within the channel. On the other hand, if bullish momentum persists and MACD remains supportive, the prevailing uptrend would stay intact, maintaining the upside bias defined by the ascending channel.

    Sources: Fxstreet

  • Gold surges to a record above $5,200 an ounce as safe-haven demand rises and the dollar weakens

    Gold prices climbed to a record above $5,200 an ounce on Wednesday, supported by robust safe-haven demand and persistent weakness in the U.S. dollar. Other precious metals also stayed firm, with silver and platinum trading near recent record highs.

    Spot gold edged lower to $5,179.41 an ounce by 19:55 ET (00:55 GMT) after briefly touching a record peak of $5,202.06. Meanwhile, April gold futures jumped 1.8% to $5,215.46 an ounce.

    Safe-haven demand remained strong after U.S. President Donald Trump said a second armada was heading toward Iran, while expressing hope that Tehran would agree to a deal with Washington.

    Gold’s rally this year has been largely driven by uncertainty surrounding U.S. policy, with heightened geopolitical tensions fueled by developments in Venezuela and a dispute over Greenland.

    A weaker dollar also provided support to gold and broader metals markets, as investor concerns grew over elevated fiscal spending and the Federal Reserve’s independence under the Trump administration. Policy uncertainty pushed the dollar to multi-year lows earlier this week.

    Trump said on Tuesday that he was close to naming a successor to Fed Chair Jerome Powell, adding that interest rates would decline under new leadership. Ongoing friction between the White House and the Federal Reserve has further underpinned gold prices, as markets remain wary of political pressure on the central bank.

    Elsewhere in metals markets, spot silver gained 1.2% to $113.4325 an ounce, while spot platinum climbed 0.6% to $2,669.61. Both were trading near record levels.

    Sources: Investing

  • OCBC has raised its 2026 gold price forecast to $5,600 per ounce, citing increasing demand for safe-haven assets.

    OCBC has raised its end-2026 gold price target to $5,600 per ounce from $4,800, citing recent sharp gains and enduring structural demand rather than a shift in its core market view. Gold has climbed about 17% so far in 2026 and has stayed elevated despite periodic pullbacks.

    The bank said prices are now supported less by isolated event risks and more by a prolonged environment of uncertainty that is driving diversification into non-sovereign assets. OCBC highlighted a persistent pricing premium that cannot be fully accounted for by traditional factors such as yields, the US dollar, ETF flows, volatility, or policy uncertainty. This premium reflects a geopolitical and uncertainty component increasingly embedded in gold prices, fueled by ongoing geopolitical tensions, policy unpredictability, and concerns over confidence in the dollar. OCBC added that the broader uptrend remains intact, underpinned by structural geopolitical risks, accommodative monetary conditions, and continued support from official sector and ETF demand.

    Sources: Investing

  • Gold shrugs off all pullback signals — a sign the next leg higher may be building

    Gold has climbed beyond $5,100, underpinned by a softer US dollar and strong, persistent structural demand. Solid technical momentum and ongoing global policy uncertainty continue to favor hard assets such as gold and silver. While the focus on potential FX intervention raises the risk of near-term profit-taking, the broader rally still shows little sign of losing steam.

    Gold surged to a fresh record of $5,100 an ounce, while silver extended its rally with another 5% jump to around $110. The latest advance has been fueled by persistent US dollar weakness, signs of yen intervention, and broader unease over fiat currencies—long a structural pillar of gold’s appeal. Ongoing global policy uncertainty is also channeling capital into hard assets.

    With such an extensive list of supportive factors, even the most bullish investors may question how long the rally can continue without at least a pause, especially given how stretched valuations have become. The temptation for profit-taking at these levels is clear. Yet prices continue to refuse to roll over, and that resilience is becoming the key narrative. Despite a fading geopolitical risk premium and last week’s tariff U-turn by Trump—which, in theory, should have dampened safe-haven demand—gold barely reacted and instead pushed even higher, underscoring the strength of the current trend.

    US dollar remains under pressure amid easing rate expectations and declining investor confidence.

    At first glance, the explanation seems simple: the US dollar has weakened, giving gold a natural boost. A softer greenback makes gold more affordable for non-US buyers, and that effect is clearly visible. However, this move goes beyond a straightforward FX translation. Gold prices have also been rising in euro and sterling terms, pointing to broader, more structural demand rather than just currency-driven gains.

    That said, dollar weakness is still playing an important role. The greenback has slid amid recent geopolitical fractures, and suspected Japanese intervention in USD/JPY has added further pressure. Markets are increasingly convinced that Japanese authorities stepped in when USD/JPY pushed beyond 159. What really caught investors’ attention were reports that the Federal Reserve was “rate-checking” banks in New York around the London close. The idea that this may have been more than unilateral action by Tokyo—potentially involving coordination with Washington—is significant, as joint Japan–US intervention would send a far stronger signal than Japan acting alone.

    Bullish momentum remains firmly intact, with strong follow-through buying and little sign of exhaustion despite overextended conditions.

    Momentum is clearly carrying much of the move. The uptrend remains firmly intact, with trend-following behavior dominating as traders continue to buy dips rather than sell into strength. As long as that pattern persists, it is difficult to make a convincing case against further near-term gains.

    From a psychological standpoint, the $5,000 threshold has now been decisively cleared. It may have seemed ambitious only a few sessions ago—much like $4,000 did not long before—but strong technical momentum, a weakening US dollar narrative, and rising anxiety in global bond markets have made these once-distant milestones appear increasingly attainable.

    That said, macro fundamentals still deserve attention. Real yields, growth expectations, and inflation dynamics have not vanished, and eventually they will reassert influence. When they do, gold may find it harder to sustain these elevated levels without a renewed or deeper systemic risk backdrop.

    Key Levels to Monitor

    For now, the bias remains to the upside. The next resistance target is near $5,182, corresponding to the 261.8% Fibonacci extension of the major October downswing, with the $5,200 psychological level just above. On the downside, multiple support zones are in focus, starting with $5,000. Other round-number levels such as $4,900 and $4,800 may also provide support, while more significant longer-term support is seen around $4,500–$4,550.

    As long as the dollar stays weak, central banks continue to be net buyers of gold, and governments openly signal a willingness to intervene in FX markets, it is difficult to identify a catalyst that would meaningfully reverse gold’s advance at this stage, aside from bouts of profit-taking.

    Sources: Fawad Razaqzada

  • Gold’s Rally Increasingly Hinges on China as U.S. Buying Loses Momentum

    Gold’s record-setting bull market has resumed its charge—but under a new set of drivers. Aggressive buying from China has increasingly taken over from gold’s traditional engines of demand, namely U.S.-based gold ETFs and futures traders. With American participation fading, gold’s ability to hold lofty levels now rests heavily on sustained Chinese demand. This shift has helped gold remain elevated, postponing the corrective phase typically required to rebalance overheated markets.

    Between late July and mid-October 2025, gold surged an extraordinary 32.9% in just 2.7 months. During that stretch, the metal logged 24 record closes—roughly three-sevenths of all trading days—while its strongest gains were spread relatively evenly across the calendar. At the time, U.S. investors were aggressively piling into gold, providing powerful upside momentum.

    That enthusiasm was clearly reflected in holdings of the world’s largest gold ETFs—SPDR Gold Shares (GLD), iShares Gold Trust (IAU), and SPDR Gold MiniShares (GLDM). According to the World Gold Council’s Q3’25 data, these three vehicles together accounted for more than three-sevenths of all gold held by global ETFs. During the rally, their combined bullion holdings jumped 10.9%, or 169.4 metric tons, helping propel gold to around $4,350 by mid-October and pushing technical conditions to extreme levels.

    At its peak, gold was trading 33% above its 200-day moving average—ranking among the most overbought readings since 1981. The bull market had delivered gains of 139.1% over 24.5 months without a single correction exceeding 10%, making it the largest cyclical gold bull ever in U.S. dollar terms since the gold standard was abandoned in 1971. Historically, such excesses have almost always been followed by sharp pullbacks.

    A correction initially appeared to be unfolding, with gold dropping 9.5% into early November—its steepest decline of the cycle and close to formal correction territory. Then the pattern abruptly changed.

    Since mid-October, gold has climbed another 10.9% over roughly three months, yet this time without meaningful participation from U.S. investors. ETF holdings at GLD, IAU, and GLDM rose just 2.2% (37.8 tons), less than one-quarter of the prior buildup—and all of that increase occurred only in the past month. Those holdings didn’t even recover their mid-October peak until mid-December, shortly before gold began printing fresh record highs.

    Gold’s ability to avoid a deeper correction despite some of the most extreme overbought conditions in decades raised questions. Normally, such excesses demand a reset in sentiment and positioning. Since U.S. investors were not driving the rebound, another source of demand had to be absorbing supply.

    Clues emerged in the timing of gold’s strongest advances. Since mid-October, nearly all of gold’s gains have occurred on Mondays—a striking anomaly given that Mondays have historically been gold’s weakest trading day. Major upside moves were logged on November 10, November 24, December 22, January 5, January 12, and again this week following a Monday market holiday. Collectively, these few sessions accounted for the vast majority of gold’s rally since October.

    Closer inspection revealed that most of these gains occurred overnight during Asian trading hours—well before European or U.S. markets opened. In other words, Chinese traders were responsible for driving price action when the rest of the world was largely inactive. These sessions effectively became “China Mondays,” periods when Chinese market flows dominated global pricing due to minimal competing liquidity.

    Because China is uniquely active during the late Sunday-to-early Monday window, its influence on gold prices during that time is disproportionate. On other weekdays, extended trading hours in Western markets dilute that impact. The clustering of gains during these windows strongly suggests that China has become the primary marginal buyer supporting gold at record levels.

    Until U.S. investors re-engage meaningfully, gold’s resilience at these heights will depend largely on whether Chinese demand remains strong enough to keep the rally alive.

    China’s influence on Sunday-night trading is further magnified by the weekend effect. Weekends represent the longest stretch when traders are unable to react to new, market-moving developments. As a result, many participants square positions and shut down algorithmic trading systems ahead of the weekend. Meanwhile, algorithms that remain active into early Monday often have a backlog of news to process, which can intensify price moves during thin overnight liquidity. This dynamic can significantly amplify China-driven buying in gold.

    Before delving further into China’s growing dominance in the gold market, it’s useful to look at how dramatically conditions shifted around gold’s mid-October peak. In the months leading up to that high, heavy share buying in GLD, IAU, and GLDM was the primary force behind gold’s explosive rally. Since then, demand from U.S. equity investors has been largely muted. Even so, gold has managed to surge back into extreme overbought territory—an outcome that underscores how unusual and China-dependent this phase of the rally has become.

    China’s dominance during Sunday-night trading is reinforced by the structure of weekends themselves. Weekends are the longest periods when traders cannot respond to new, market-moving information. As a result, many participants flatten positions and shut down algorithmic systems before markets reopen. Meanwhile, algorithms that remain active into early Monday often need to process a backlog of news, which can magnify price movements in thin overnight liquidity. This dynamic amplifies China-driven gold buying when global participation is minimal.

    Before exploring China’s growing grip on gold prices further, it helps to contrast the months before and after gold’s mid-October peak. In the run-up to that high, aggressive share buying in GLD, IAU, and GLDM was the dominant force behind gold’s explosive advance. Since then, U.S. stock investor demand has been largely muted—yet gold has still surged back into extreme overbought territory, underscoring how unusual and externally driven this rally has become.

    While American equity investors were slow to chase this China-led surge until recently, U.S. gold-futures speculators jumped in aggressively. Futures positioning is reported weekly, and in late November—just after gold’s second “China Monday” surge—total speculative long positions stood at 307,000 contracts. Over the following seven weeks, that figure ballooned. By the January 13 Commitments of Traders report, total spec longs had risen to 362,400 contracts—an increase equivalent to roughly 172 metric tons of gold. That dwarfed the roughly 52-ton increase in GLD, IAU, and GLDM holdings over the same period, meaning futures traders significantly amplified China-driven momentum.

    However, futures-driven buying power is limited and quickly exhausted. Gold futures allow extreme leverage—often 20x to 25x—which dramatically restricts the pool of participants willing to assume such risk. Assessing speculative positioning within its historical range provides insight into whether traders are more likely to add exposure or begin selling.

    As of mid-January, speculative long positions were already 58% into their bull-market range, while shorts were just 6% in. The most bullish setup occurs when longs are near the bottom of their range and shorts are near the top, leaving ample room for buying. The current configuration is far closer to the opposite—suggesting diminishing upside fuel from U.S. speculators.

    That leaves gold’s ability to continue defying a necessary corrective phase largely dependent on China. Unfortunately, reliable, consistent data on Chinese gold markets is scarce, especially in English. Even if such data were available, it would require extensive historical analysis to establish meaningful relationships with price behavior.

    Still, anecdotal evidence is abundant. Major financial publications regularly report frenzied gold buying in China. Silver’s recent parabolic surge—largely driven by Chinese demand—appears to have spilled over into gold, fueling enthusiasm both domestically and globally. Without transparent data, Western analysts are left guessing how long this demand can persist.

    Cultural factors may offer some clues. In Western markets, gold had long been dismissed as outdated, resulting in minimal portfolio allocations for years. In contrast, gold has always held deep cultural significance in China. Chinese investors therefore began this cycle with far greater enthusiasm, potentially making them more willing to buy aggressively and stay invested longer.

    Capital controls also play a role. Chinese investors have limited avenues to diversify wealth outside the domestic financial system, while gold and silver offer a rare escape from policy risk. Additionally, Chinese culture places a stronger emphasis on wealth accumulation and status—traits that can fuel speculative behavior.

    These dynamics make China uniquely susceptible to a speculative gold mania. Evidence increasingly suggests one is underway, reinforced by the repeated “China Monday” surges. Yet Chinese markets remain opaque. Financial transparency is limited, economic data series have been quietly discontinued when trends turn unfavorable, and even official gold reserve figures from the People’s Bank of China are widely viewed with skepticism.

    For example, China reported identical gold reserves for more than six years before suddenly announcing a 57% jump in a single month—an implausible scenario. Many analysts believe China has accumulated far more gold than officially disclosed for years. If official reserve data lacks credibility, confidence in broader market transparency is equally questionable.

    That uncertainty is unsettling. History shows that speculative manias eventually end in sharp, symmetrical collapses once buying power is exhausted. Whether China’s gold frenzy lasts months—or reverses abruptly—is unknowable.

    What is clear is that gold’s recent breakout has been almost entirely driven during Chinese trading hours. Since December 19, gold has climbed roughly $487, yet nearly all of those gains occurred on just four “China Mondays.” This concentration of upside is highly abnormal and inherently risky.

    Chinese markets have repeatedly demonstrated how quickly sentiment can flip once fear takes hold. Any government action—such as curbing speculative activity—could trigger rapid selling. Without strong participation from U.S. investors or futures traders to absorb that supply, gold could fall sharply.

    In short, Chinese trading has seized control of the gold market. After peaking at extreme overbought levels in mid-October, gold required a corrective reset. That process was prematurely halted by surging Chinese demand. With U.S. participation limited and futures buying power fading, gold’s current position is precarious. If Chinese enthusiasm wanes or policy shifts intervene, a forced and potentially violent rebalancing could follow.

    Sources: Adam Hamilton

  • Gold climbs to a fresh record above $5,000 an ounce as investors seek safe havens

    Gold vaulted above the psychological $5,000-per-ounce threshold on Monday, building on last week’s explosive rally as investors flocked to the traditional safe haven amid escalating geopolitical risks.

    Spot gold climbed 1.1% to a fresh all-time high of $5,035.83 per ounce by 18:52 ET (00:52 GMT), while U.S. gold futures also advanced 1.1% to a record $5,074.71 per ounce.

    The precious metal surged more than 8% last week, repeatedly setting new highs, and is now up nearly 17% year-to-date.

    The broader precious metals complex also strengthened. Silver jumped over 2% to a record $106.56 per ounce, while platinum edged higher to a new peak of $2,798.46 per ounce.

    Gold has climbed sharply since the beginning of the year, supported by geopolitical tensions, expectations of looser U.S. monetary policy later in 2026, and continued buying from central banks and investors hedging against market volatility.

    Geopolitical tensions, Trump tariff threats lift gold

    A key catalyst behind gold’s sharp rally this month has been mounting friction between the United States and its NATO partners over Greenland, a dispute that has rattled global markets.

    President Trump’s comments on U.S. strategic ambitions in the Arctic have further strained transatlantic ties, fueling fears of wider diplomatic and economic repercussions.

    Adding to those geopolitical pressures, Trump escalated trade tensions with Canada over the weekend, warning of a 100% tariff on Canadian imports should Ottawa move forward with a trade agreement with China.

    Trump said on his social media platform that Canada could serve as a “drop-off port” for Chinese goods entering the United States, warning that Beijing would “eat Canada alive” if the agreement proceeds.

    Fed rate decision in focus

    Gold has also found support from expectations around U.S. monetary policy. The Federal Reserve is set to wrap up its policy meeting on Wednesday, with markets broadly expecting officials to leave interest rates unchanged.

    Although a hold decision is largely priced in, investors will closely examine the Fed’s statement and remarks from Chair Jerome Powell for signals on the timing and pace of potential rate cuts later this year.

    Gold typically benefits from lower interest rates, which reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets.

    “Both the data and Chair Powell’s strong defence of central bank independence suggest there is little chance of a Fed rate cut on January 28,” ING analysts said in a note.

    “Attention will instead turn to President Trump’s forthcoming nomination for the next Fed chair, upcoming economic data, and whether that nominee can steer the committee toward additional rate cuts,” they added.

    Sources: Reuters

  • Gold gains momentum, nearing the $5,000 mark

    Gold prices remain firmly in an uptrend and are poised to test the key $5,000 per troy ounce level on Friday. The precious metal’s strong rally accelerates amid mounting US Dollar weakness and mixed US Treasury yields across the curve.

    Fundamental Analysis Overview

    Expectations of additional monetary easing by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) continue to support demand for the non-yielding yellow metal, even as geopolitical risks have eased following US President Donald Trump’s reversal on Greenland. The bullish momentum also appears largely undeterred by extremely overbought short-term technical conditions, reinforcing the view that Gold’s path of least resistance remains upward.

    On Wednesday, Trump announced the cancellation of planned tariffs on European allies related to US control over Greenland, after reaching a preliminary framework with NATO leaders on future Arctic security cooperation. He also dismissed the possibility of taking Greenland by force, encouraging risk appetite. However, the positive market response proved short-lived, as dovish Fed expectations dominated, outweighing Thursday’s US economic data and pushing the US Dollar (USD) back toward its lowest level since January 6, last seen earlier this week.

    Data from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis showed that final third-quarter GDP growth came in at 4.4%, marginally above the previous estimate of 4.3% and notably stronger than the 3.8% expansion recorded in the prior quarter. Meanwhile, the Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index — the Fed’s preferred inflation measure — rose 2.8% year-on-year in November, up from 2.7%, while the monthly increase remained steady at 0.2%.

    Further weighing on the USD, the US Department of Labor reported that initial jobless claims edged up by 1,000 to 200,000 for the week ending January 17, below market expectations of 212,000. Despite the better-than-expected figure, the data failed to offer meaningful support to the greenback amid the broader de-dollarization trend. Investors now turn their attention to upcoming flash PMI releases for insight into global economic conditions, which could influence risk sentiment and shape Gold’s trajectory as it heads toward solid weekly gains.

    XAU/USD Technical Analysis

    The broader uptrend remains supported by an ascending channel originating from $3,805.69, with XAU/USD now having decisively broken above the channel’s upper boundary around $4,742.80. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains firmly above the zero line and continues to trend higher, indicating strengthening bullish momentum. Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 81.25, deep in overbought territory, which may limit immediate upside as momentum becomes stretched.

    That said, a sustained hold above the former channel ceiling opens the door for a continuation of the rally toward new highs. On the downside, initial support is seen near the ascending channel’s lower boundary at $4,437.79 should prices consolidate. A flattening MACD would point to fading upside momentum at elevated levels, while a pullback in RSI toward the 70 mark would help ease overbought conditions and reinforce trend stability. A failure to defend the breakout zone could trigger a move back into the previous range, whereas continued momentum would keep bullish control intact.

    Sources: Fxstreet

  • Gold prices surge to record highs amid Trump–Iran tensions; $5,000 per ounce within reach

    Gold prices climbed to an all-time high during Asian trading on Friday, edging closer to the widely monitored $5,000-per-ounce mark after U.S. President Donald Trump said American ships had been deployed toward Iran, boosting demand for safe-haven assets.

    Silver and platinum also reached record levels on Friday. Although precious metals eased slightly after Trump announced a trade agreement involving Greenland, continued uncertainty over the deal and heightened tensions with Iran sustained investor demand for safe havens.

    Spot gold climbed as much as 0.7% to a new record of $4,967.48 an ounce, while February gold futures advanced more than 1% to $4,969.69 per ounce.

    Spot silver surged almost 3% to an all-time high of $99.0275, and spot platinum gained nearly 1% to reach a record peak of $2,692.31 per ounce.

    Trump says a large U.S. naval “armada” is being sent toward Iran as tensions escalate

    Speaking to reporters aboard Air Force One on Thursday night, Trump said the United States had dispatched a naval fleet toward Iran, warning Tehran against harming protesters or resuming its nuclear program.

    “We have an armada moving in that direction, and hopefully it won’t need to be used,” Trump said, adding that he would prefer to avoid any escalation. According to reports, a U.S. aircraft carrier along with several destroyers is expected to arrive in the Middle East in the coming days.

    Earlier in January, Trump had warned Tehran against the killing of protesters as Iran faced nationwide demonstrations against the Nezam.

    However, although he later softened his tone toward Iran, Trump’s remarks on Thursday reignited concerns about the possibility of U.S. military intervention in the Middle East.

    Gold and metals post strong start to 2026

    Metal markets surged through January as escalating geopolitical risks drove investors toward physical safe-haven assets. A U.S. military move into Venezuela early in the year, along with Trump’s threats related to Greenland, boosted demand for low-risk investments.

    So far in 2026, spot gold has risen nearly 15%, while silver has jumped close to 39% and platinum has gained about 21%.

    A weaker U.S. dollar has also supported metal prices, as mixed economic signals fueled expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates later this year. The Fed is set to meet next week and is widely expected to keep rates unchanged for now.

    Trump’s criticism of the Fed further lifted safe-haven demand, alongside growing concerns about worsening fiscal conditions in developed economies, particularly Japan. Sharp sell-offs in Japanese and U.S. government bonds in recent weeks have prompted investors to rotate into gold.

    Sources: Investing

  • Gold eases from record levels near $4,900 an ounce after Trump signals Greenland deal

    Gold prices edged lower in Asian trading on Thursday after touching a record high near $4,900 an ounce in the prior session, as U.S. President Donald Trump’s retreat from tariff threats linked to Greenland tensions dampened safe-haven demand. Spot gold declined 0.7% to $4,799.55 an ounce by 20:36 ET (01:36 GMT), after hitting a record peak of $4,888.1 an ounce a session earlier. March U.S. gold futures also slipped 0.8% to $4,801.75 an ounce.

    Gold jumped on Wednesday as geopolitical tensions intensified following a transatlantic dispute over Greenland and threats of tariffs on European imports. The rally earlier this week lifted bullion close to the psychological $5,000 level, with investors seeking a safe haven amid heightened global uncertainty.

    Prices later pulled back after President Trump, speaking at the World Economic Forum in Davos, said he would refrain from imposing the tariffs and ruled out the use of force in the dispute over the Danish territory. He added that a “framework” agreement was taking shape to ease tensions with NATO allies.

    “It’s a long-term deal — the ultimate long-term deal — and it puts everyone in a very strong position, particularly when it comes to security and minerals,” Trump told reporters. Gold also faced mild pressure from a modest rebound in the U.S. dollar, with the Dollar Index trading slightly higher after rising 0.1% in the previous session.

    Sources: Bloomberg

  • Gold: How Rising War Risks and Debt Strains Could Drive Prices Toward $20,000

    The modern state increasingly rests on three foundations: debt, fiat currency, and coercive power. Concepts such as “national security” and “critical minerals” have become the latest government talking points, widely promoted and readily accepted by the public. Meanwhile, personal preparedness—once a priority during health crises—has faded from focus, even as harmful consumer habits and ultra-processed foods continue to be normalized and aggressively marketed.

    Political leaders often project strength through military posturing and geopolitical confrontation while avoiding personal sacrifice, financing these actions primarily through expanding debt and currency creation. In several regions, power structures are maintained through force, information control, and repression rather than genuine legitimacy or accountability.

    Across parts of the world, regimes with deeply troubling records are frequently rebranded as sources of “stability” when it suits geopolitical or economic interests, particularly in energy and resource markets. This pattern underscores a broader contradiction: governments race to announce ambitious initiatives and sweeping strategies, yet largely ignore the importance of real savings and sound money.

    Against this backdrop, a growing share of the global population—particularly in Asia, along with a minority of investors in the West—has turned toward long-term wealth preservation through tangible assets such as gold and silver. For those already positioned this way, the erratic behavior and short-term thinking of governments is more a source of frustration than fear.

    Gold is the currency of independent citizens. While the U.S. dollar is technically due for its fifth cyclical rebound against gold in the past 50 years, that does not mean it must happen immediately—and when it does…. Gold-focused savers should stay prepared to add to their gold holdings—and silver as well.

    On the weekly chart, gold appears technically overbought, yet its price behavior is beginning to resemble the equity market’s powerful advance in the mid-1990s. Momentum indicators such as RSI and Stochastics are finding support near the 50 level before pushing above 70 and remaining elevated for extended periods—an indication of strong, persistent trends rather than imminent reversals.

    Against a backdrop of rising debt, expanding fiat issuance, and escalating geopolitical risks, prominent gold investors such as Pierre Lassonde have projected that gold prices could approach the $20,000 level in the years ahead.

    From a portfolio-management perspective, selectively taking profits—up to roughly 30% in many cases—can be prudent, not as a call on a fiat-denominated price peak, but as a way to build liquidity. That capital can then be redeployed during the next meaningful pullback, which is likely to occur at price levels well above today’s.

    Psychologically, sharp corrections can be challenging, particularly for investors without available cash. Maintaining some dry powder through partial profit-taking enables investors to add to gold, silver, and mining positions when opportunities arise—this is the primary rationale for trimming exposure now.

    Fundamentally, the case for gold remains exceptionally strong. Recent statements suggesting potential military actions involving NATO allies underscore the degree of geopolitical uncertainty. Even without direct conflict, such rhetoric alone could propel gold significantly higher against fiat currencies. In the event of an actual escalation, price moves of $2,000 per ounce—or more—could unfold rapidly.

    The Shiller (CAPE) ratio—an inflation-adjusted price-to-earnings measure for the S&P 500—highlights the extreme valuation levels currently embedded in U.S equities.

    If U.S. policymakers continue to pressure European allies through aggressive tariff measures while openly discussing military options, the resulting backlash could be severe. At some point, a tipping point may be reached, prompting European governments and institutions to rapidly reduce exposure to U.S. government bonds and U.S. equities.

    Such a scenario would carry profound risks. Asset freezes or retaliatory measures could follow, severely disrupting global financial markets. Under those conditions, gold could experience explosive upside moves, potentially rising by thousands of fiat-denominated dollars in very short order. At the same time, forced selling from Europe could trigger a rapid collapse in U.S. equity markets, with a speed and scale rivaling—or even exceeding—historic market crashes.

    The broader takeaway is that gold increasingly functions as a form of sovereign money for billions of individuals, particularly across Asia, who already view it as a long-term store of value. As pressures build on systems dominated by fiat currency, debt expansion, and coercive policy tools, the resilience of those systems may be tested. Should confidence fracture, the adjustment—especially in the U.S.—could be both abrupt and far-reaching.

    Turning to the 10-year Treasury yield chart, the recent upside breakout carries profound implications for both the U.S. government and gold. For years, the notion of unlimited quantitative easing was promoted as a sustainable solution, but that framework was always unrealistic. Instead, it appears to be giving way to a regime of persistently higher interest rates—and, in parallel, steadily rising fiat-denominated gold prices.

    This shift reflects a deeper issue: confidence in governments and their currencies is eroding. As debt burdens expand and monetary credibility weakens, markets are beginning to price in a structural change rather than a temporary cycle. In that environment, higher yields and higher gold prices are not contradictions but complementary signals of systemic stress.

    The loss of trust in fiat-based systems is no longer a distant risk; it is an active force shaping global markets—and one that is likely to persist.

    While a new Federal Reserve chair has yet to be appointed, the leading candidate, Kevin, is known to favor aggressive quantitative tightening and has openly described equity markets as severely overvalued. To restore credibility in the U.S. government, its bond market, and the dollar, a substantial and sustained QT program would likely be required.

    What I continue to regard as one of the most significant base formations in market history is the inverse head-and-shoulders pattern on the CDNX. I have long argued that a breakout from this structure would likely coincide with a major move higher in long-term interest rates, and recent developments suggest that this scenario is unfolding decisively.

    My long-term objective for the CDNX stands at 10,000, and well before that level is reached, many junior resource stocks could deliver outsized returns—potentially achieving multi-hundred- or even thousand-fold gains.

    Another chart I encourage investors to monitor closely is the GDX-to-gold ratio. Of particular note is the 14,3,3 Stochastics oscillator at the bottom of the chart. As the upside breakout gains traction and the rally develops, this momentum indicator could remain in overbought territory not merely for months or years, but potentially for an extended secular period.

    The broader takeaway is clear: Markets appear to be entering a new phase—one defined by a sustained gold bull cycle. In this environment, informed and disciplined investors stand to benefit the most, as capital increasingly shifts toward real assets and away from fiat-based complacency.

    Sources: Stewart Thomson

  • Gold prices fall back from record peaks after Trump eases Iran tensions and allays concerns about the Federal Reserve

    Gold prices declined during Asian trading on Thursday following three days of record-breaking highs, as U.S. President Donald Trump softened his position on the unrest in Iran and Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell eased concerns, reducing the demand for gold as a safe haven.

    Spot gold was last down 0.8% at $4,588.55 per ounce by 23:04 ET (04:04 GMT), while U.S. Gold Futures fell 0.3% to $34,594.10. In the previous session, gold reached a record peak of $4,642.72 per ounce.

    Other precious metals experienced even sharper drops, with silver plunging nearly 6% to $87.74 per ounce and platinum prices falling 4% to $2,309.52 per ounce.

    Gold retreats from highs as Trump adopts a milder approach toward Iran

    The precious metal had climbed to consecutive record highs amid concerns that escalating unrest in Iran might provoke U.S. military intervention and destabilize the Middle East, along with worries about political pressure on the U.S. Federal Reserve.

    Those fears subsided after President Trump indicated a softer approach toward Iran. He stated that he was reassured Iranian authorities would cease killing protesters and expressed his belief that there were no plans for large-scale executions at this time.

    His remarks lowered the chances of an immediate U.S. military response to the protests against the government of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, easing the geopolitical tensions that had driven gold’s recent surge.

    Trump states there is no intention to dismiss Fed Chair Powell.

    Gold prices also came under pressure after Trump attempted to ease worries about the Federal Reserve. In an interview with Reuters, he stated that he had no plans to remove Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, despite ongoing investigations, which helped to alleviate investor concerns about the independence of U.S. monetary policy.

    The recent decline in gold was partly due to profit-taking following its rapid rise, which pushed prices well beyond key technical levels.

    Despite Thursday’s drop, gold remained supported by expectations of U.S. interest rate cuts later this year, ongoing geopolitical tensions, and robust central bank purchases.

    Lower interest rates generally benefit gold by decreasing the opportunity cost of holding a non-yielding asset.

    Sources: Investing

  • Gold maintains bullish trend but moves into a cautious zone

    Gold futures have entered a crucial expansion phase, with prices accelerating beyond key VC PMI levels on both daily and weekly charts, indicating momentum-driven growth rather than a mean-reversion scenario. The 15-minute /GC chart shows prices breaking through the VC PMI Daily Mean near $4,496 and pushing above the Sell 1 Daily level at $4,531, confirming robust upward price acceptance. Such moves typically happen when price action and timing converge, creating what traders call “escape velocity.”

    According to the VC PMI framework, the market is currently trading near the upper probability band, approaching Sell 2 Daily around $4,561 and Sell 1 Weekly near $4,567, with Sell 2 Weekly projected at about $4,633. Historically, these levels mark significant zones of exhaustion or pause, where momentum traders tend to take profits and the risk of mean reversion rises. Although strong trends can push prices beyond these points, the odds favor increased volatility followed by consolidation once these upper bands are tested.

    Time cycle analysis highlights the significance of the present period. The current advance is reaching a short-term cycle peak that aligns with the mid-January rhythm, typically linked to sharp intraday moves and heightened emotional trading. When price momentum accelerates into a cycle window while nearing VC PMI sell bands, markets often shift from trend continuation to sideways rotation. This doesn’t signal a major top but does indicate a high-risk zone for initiating new long positions, emphasizing the need for disciplined trade management.

    From the Square of 9 perspective, the current price range corresponds with significant harmonic rotations stemming from previous major swing lows. The $4,560–$4,640 zone marks an important angular relationship where price, time, and geometric factors intersect. Such geometric convergence points often serve as critical decision areas, influencing whether the market pauses, pulls back to the VC PMI mean, or accelerates into a larger upward move.

    In summary, gold maintains its bullish structure but is currently trading within a statistically and geometrically significant high zone. Traders are advised to focus on risk management, gradually take profits, and consider the likelihood of mean reversion around the VC PMI levels, while closely watching cycle developments to confirm whether the trend will continue.

    Sources: Investing

  • Gold Maintains Uptrend Near Record Highs Amid Geopolitical and Fed Uncertainty

    • Gold has drawn buyers for the third consecutive day, supported by escalating geopolitical tensions that increase safe-haven demand.
    • Worries over the Federal Reserve’s independence are weighing on the US Dollar, providing additional support to the XAU/USD pair.
    • However, diminished expectations for further Fed rate cuts could limit gold’s upside ahead of important US inflation data.

    Gold (XAU/USD) continues to trade with a bullish bias near record levels, holding just under the $4,600 mark reached earlier this week as investors seek safety amid persistent geopolitical tensions and concerns about the Federal Reserve’s independence. Escalating unrest in Iran and broader global risks have kept safe‑haven demand elevated, supporting bullion’s strong performance.

    At the same time, worries over the U.S. central bank’s autonomy have weighed on the U.S. Dollar, encouraging flows into non‑yielding assets like gold. However, expectations that rate cuts may be less aggressive could temper upside momentum ahead of key U.S. inflation data due out this week.

    Daily Market Movers: Gold Boosted by Safe-Haven Appeal and Softening USD

    Following a significant U.S. operation in Venezuela earlier this month, President Donald Trump announced that Washington would oversee the country’s administration during a transitional period after Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro was captured — even posting an image on social media depicting himself as the “Acting President of Venezuela.”

    Geopolitical risks remain elevated globally. Protests in Iran, which have resulted in hundreds of deaths, continue to unsettle markets, while the ongoing Russia–Ukraine conflict — including confirmed strikes on Russian oil infrastructure — adds further supply‑side pressure.

    In Asia, rising tensions between China and Japan have intensified after Beijing restricted exports of rare earths and rare‑earth magnets in response to Tokyo’s recent political remarks. These developments have helped push gold toward fresh all‑time highs as investors seek safe‑haven assets.

    On the monetary policy front, U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell has defended the central bank’s independence after threats of a criminal indictment linked to a Senate testimony, emphasizing that rate‑setting should be based on economic evidence rather than political pressure.

    Recent U.S. jobs data showed a smaller‑than‑expected increase in nonfarm payrolls and a falling unemployment rate, which has tempered expectations for aggressive rate cuts by the Fed this year — a factor that has weighed on the U.S. dollar and supported flows into gold.

    With no major U.S. economic data scheduled for Monday, markets are likely to remain sensitive to comments from Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) members, while this week’s U.S. inflation figures will be a key focus for traders.

    Gold’s Technical Outlook Remains Bullish Despite Overbought RSI Signals

    From a technical standpoint, gold’s recent rise over the past month has formed an upward-sloping channel, signaling a solid short-term uptrend that supports bullish momentum for XAU/USD. The price remains above the ascending 200-period Simple Moving Average (SMA), reinforcing the positive trend and providing dynamic support near the $4,320–$4,325 zone.

    The MACD indicator shows the line staying above the Signal line in positive territory, with an expanding histogram indicating strengthening bullish momentum.

    However, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 71.82 suggests overbought conditions, which could limit immediate upside and lead to some consolidation near the channel’s upper boundary.

    Any pullback is likely to find support near the channel’s lower boundary around $4,365, with the rising 200 SMA further underpinning the overall bullish outlook. Maintaining momentum above these support levels would keep the upward trend intact, while a decisive break above the channel resistance could trigger a fresh rally toward higher levels.

    Sources: Fxstreet

  • Looking Back at the First 25 Years of the 21st Century

    Reflecting on the start of this century, the first striking observation is our national shortsightedness. After surviving Y2K and the dot-com crash in 2000, our leaders assumed the path ahead would be smooth sailing from year one onward.

    However, reality proved otherwise, beginning with a series of black swan events, notably the attacks on the World Trade Center and Pentagon on September 11. While such events are inherently unpredictable, it’s remarkable that the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) economists confidently forecasted in 2001 a future of continuous budget surpluses, anticipating the complete elimination of national debt by 2011.

    For reasons unknown, the CBO issues 10-year federal spending and revenue projections, despite having no solid factual or practical foundation to accurately forecast beyond a year or two—akin to trying to predict the weather a year in advance.

    The January 2001 CBO report highlights this myopia. Their projections simply extended current trends indefinitely without grounding in reality. Under this unrealistic mandate, the CBO projected a cumulative surplus of $5.6 trillion for 2002–2011.

    In reality, deficits over that decade totaled $6.1 trillion—a swing of $11.7 trillion. It would have been much simpler to just flip a plus sign to a minus. The projections failed to account for the soaring costs of Bush’s “War on Terror” post-9/11, which led to prolonged wars in Afghanistan and Iraq, the bursting of the real estate bubble, and massive TARP bailouts to rescue large banks.

    In short, this is a summary of CBO’s flawed foresight:

    The first takeaway from this bleak forecast is that the CBO economists assumed deficits would increase in a smooth, predictable fashion—almost as if they were drawing a straight line with minor fluctuations, rather than reflecting the unpredictable realities of economic growth.

    A second point is that the 2003 Bush tax cuts were not the main driver of the deficits. In fact, annual deficits dropped significantly—from $413 billion in fiscal year 2004 (which began October 1, 2003) to just $161 billion in fiscal year 2007. This means the deficit shrank by more than half during the four years following the tax cuts and before the 2007 real estate crash.

    While much of this now feels like distant history, the ongoing wars and the Federal Reserve’s drastic response to the 2008 financial crisis—keeping interest rates near zero for eight years, essentially through the entire Obama administration—contributed to massive deficits that have persisted through to today, especially in the five years following the COVID-19 pandemic.

    Since 2001, U.S. federal deficits have averaged about $1 billion annually, but that figure has surged to over $2 trillion per year since 2020, according to the U.S. Treasury.

    Today, the total federal deficit stands at $38 trillion, which amounts to roughly $110,000 owed per American—far from the anticipated surpluses once projected.

    Following a Challenging 2000–2009, Markets Surged in the First Quarter

    What about the markets? After nearly a “lost decade” lasting nine years from March 2000 to March 2009, all major market indexes have experienced remarkable growth—particularly gold relative to the U.S. dollar.

    By March 9, 2009, three of the four major indexes—the S&P 500, NASDAQ, and Russell 2000—had fallen by 50% since the decade began (while the Dow was down 40%), but they bounced back strongly from 2009 through 2025:

    Over the same 25-year period, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 83%, which means the real market gains were somewhat diminished.

    The U.S. dollar performed even worse, losing about 10% in value overall (and 8% against the euro), while gold and silver surged more than 15 times in value:

    The first-quarter returns were decent, but the strong performance of gold and silver signals that the dollar—and the CBO’s deficit forecasts—cannot be relied on in the long run. In fact, President Trump has set a goal for 2026 to deliberately weaken the dollar against the Chinese yuan to “help” exporters boost overseas sales. Much of the talk about the dominance of the “King Dollar” is just rhetoric. In reality, many politicians aim to devalue their currencies to encourage trade, turning paper money into a “race to the bottom,” while gold quietly holds its value, watching from the sidelines.

    This brings us to the 2025 summary—a major victory for precious metals as the dollar dropped by 10%.

    2025 Brought Massive Gains for Precious Metals

    The year 2025 exemplified the key trends seen over the past 25 years—while the stock market continued to climb, gold and silver surged even faster. Although inflation is easing, gold today serves less as an inflation hedge and more as a safeguard against crises, a hedge against the dollar, and increasingly, a hedge against cryptocurrency volatility.

    In 2025, the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) dropped by 10%, allowing major global currencies to gain between 5% and 15%. Meanwhile, the poorest-performing investments of 2025 brought good news for consumers through lower food and energy prices:

    So, if 2026 mirrors the gains of 2025, it will surely be a rewarding year for most investors.

    Sources: Investing

  • Could gold reach $5,000 per ounce in 2026?

    Gold has recovered most of the losses it experienced during a steep decline in late October, climbing back to record levels by the end of December.

    The precious metal hit a new all-time peak on December 29, marking its best year since 1979 with a 64% rise in 2025 and an increase of nearly 140% since early 2023.

    “Gold hit new record highs in late December, fueled by demand for tangible assets amid a weak US dollar, geopolitical tensions, uncertainty among institutions, and low seasonal liquidity,” UBS strategists led by Giovanni Staunovo stated in a report.

    Despite the magnitude of the recent rally, UBS maintains that the fundamental conditions continue to support further gains in gold for 2026. The strategists highlight a significant drop in U.S. real interest rates, which they describe as “the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold,” currently at its lowest point since mid-2023.

    Additionally, demand from both investors and central banks remains close to record levels, while ongoing concerns about rising government debt in advanced economies continue to boost gold’s appeal as a store of value. These factors collectively support expectations for new record highs next year.

    “Our outlook for gold remains positive,” the strategists stated, having recently increased their gold price target for March 2026 to $5,000 per ounce.

    “We believe gold’s function as a diversifier and hedge remains strong. For investors who favor this asset class, we recommend a mid-single-digit allocation to gold within a diversified portfolio,” they added.

    Recent geopolitical developments have strengthened gold’s reputation as a safe-haven asset. UBS pointed out the unexpected U.S. military capture of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro last weekend, which caused widespread market reactions.

    The bank also notes that ongoing structural demand trends continue to support gold. UBS strategists anticipate central bank gold purchases will total between 900 and 950 metric tons in 2025, just shy of the previous year’s record.

    They project total global gold demand to reach approximately 4,850 metric tons, which would be the highest since 2011.

    In addition, UBS highlights the sharp increase in government debt among advanced economies, expected to hit around 110% of GDP this year—up from about 75% twenty years ago—and forecasted to rise to about 118% by the decade’s end, according to the International Monetary Fund.

    Separately, HSBC commodity strategists predict gold prices could reach $5,000 as early as the first half of 2026.

    “We expect prices to trade at or near $5,000 per ounce in the first half of 2026. However, it is possible that the rally may lose momentum as the year progresses,” strategist James Steel wrote in a note.

    Sources: Investing

  • Gold Holds Steady Ahead of US Jobs Report for Rate-Cut Signals

    Gold held steady as traders balanced a stronger dollar with upcoming U.S. economic data on Friday that could influence this year’s interest rate policy.

    Gold hovered around $4,465 an ounce, up 3.4% for the week through Thursday, but faced some selling pressure after U.S. initial jobless claims for the week ending January 3 came in slightly below expectations. Meanwhile, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index, which measures the strength of the U.S. dollar, has risen 0.5% so far this year, making gold more costly for many buyers.

    The December jobs report due Friday is expected to provide insight into whether the Federal Reserve will pursue additional interest rate cuts following three consecutive reductions in 2025. While nonfarm payrolls are forecasted to show stronger job growth, the unemployment rate is expected to remain steady—mixed signals that may reduce the likelihood of the Fed accelerating further rate cuts.

    Gold just completed its strongest annual gain since 1979, surging about 65% last year and hitting a record high of $4,549.92 in late December. The powerful rally was driven by central bank purchases and increased investment in exchange-traded funds, fueled by the “debasement trade.” Additionally, lower borrowing costs—beneficial for non-yielding assets like gold—have further propelled its rise.

    Traders are closely monitoring the upcoming selection of a new Federal Reserve chair. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent indicated that President Donald Trump is expected to make a decision this month regarding Jerome Powell’s successor, as Powell’s term concludes in May. According to Bessent, four candidates are currently being considered.

    Sources: Bloomberg

  • Gold extends rally on Venezuela concerns, closing in on historic highs

    Gold continued its strong rally in Asian trading on Tuesday, moving back toward record territory as rising geopolitical tensions after a U.S. strike on Venezuela boosted safe-haven demand for the metal.

    Spot gold inched up 0.2% to $4,458.20 an ounce at 01:22 ET (06:22 GMT), while U.S. gold futures gained 0.4% to $4,469.10 per ounce.

    Bullion had jumped 2.7% in the previous session—its biggest one-day advance in weeks—as investors sought refuge in precious metals amid growing global market uncertainty.

    Although prices reached a record high of $4,549.71 per ounce last week before retreating on profit-taking, gold has since recovered and is again trading close to those peak levels.

    Gold jumps as U.S. action in Venezuela and Fed rate-cut expectations fuel demand

    The surge was mainly sparked by events in Venezuela, where U.S. troops carried out a surprise operation over the weekend that led to the arrest of President Nicolás Maduro, sharply intensifying geopolitical risks and unsettling commodity markets.

    Officials said Maduro was taken to the United States to face long-standing narcotics-related charges and entered a not-guilty plea in a New York court on Monday.

    According to Reuters, U.S. President Donald Trump is preparing to meet with executives from major American oil companies to discuss measures to increase Venezuela’s oil output.

    Expectations of prolonged geopolitical tensions and potential policy changes have further strengthened gold’s role as a hedge against market volatility.

    Gold also drew support from growing expectations that U.S. interest rates will continue to decline in 2026.

    Markets are now factoring in two additional Federal Reserve rate cuts this year, an environment that typically benefits non-yielding assets like gold.

    On Monday, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari noted that U.S. inflation has been easing gradually, strengthening the view that the central bank could have room to ease policy if price pressures keep moderating.

    Investors are closely tracking upcoming U.S. economic data for further signals on the Fed’s policy direction. December’s nonfarm payrolls report, due Friday, is expected to be a crucial gauge of labor market strength and could shape rate expectations in the months ahead.

    Silver and platinum climb as copper sets a new record

    Other precious and industrial metals also traded firmly higher on Tuesday.

    Silver surged 3% to $78.78 an ounce, while platinum gained 2% to $2,331.25 per ounce.

    On the London Metal Exchange, benchmark copper futures rose 2.2% to a record $13,331.0 per ton. U.S. copper futures also advanced 1.5% to $6.07 a pound, marking their highest level on record.

    According to ING analysts, copper’s continued rally has been driven by disruptions to mine supply and shifts in trade flows caused by tariffs imposed by U.S. President Trump.

    Sources: Investing

  • Weekly Market Outlook: Calm Start to the New Year as US Dollar Holds Steady Ahead of Key Data

    Financial markets extended the holiday-thinned mood on the first trading day of the new year, with investors largely staying on the sidelines. Markets remain in a wait-and-see mode ahead of a data-heavy week.

    The US Dollar Index (DXY) traded near the 98.40 area on Friday, paring a significant portion of its New Year losses.

    Gold (XAU/USD) traded around the $4,320 level, surrendering all intraday gains following the New Year’s break. Expectations of lower US interest rates and elevated geopolitical tensions have continued to support precious metals in recent sessions.

    EUR/USD hovered near 1.1740 after edging lower earlier in the week, remaining under pressure as investors await upcoming economic data.

    GBP/USD traded close to the 1.3480 area, little changed during the first US session of the year.

    USD/JPY hovered around the 156.50 region, trading slightly lower on the day with limited intraday movement.

    AUD/USD traded near the 0.6690 area on Friday, posting modest gains after paring nearly half of its intraday advance.

    Key Economic Data Ahead: Upcoming Releases Set to Shape Market Sentiment

    Over the coming days, investors will closely watch US employment figures and global inflation data, which are expected to influence central bank policies.

    • Monday: The US Institute for Supply Management (ISM) releases the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) for December.
    • Tuesday: Germany’s Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) and Australia’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) are scheduled for publication.
    • Wednesday: The US ADP Employment Change report (December), ISM Services PMI (December), and the preliminary Eurozone HICP (December) will be released.
    • Thursday: The US Trade Balance for October and Consumer Credit data for November are due.
    • January 9: The highly anticipated US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report for December and the preliminary January Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index will be published.

    These releases are expected to set the tone for market direction and provide clues on the pace of monetary tightening by major central banks.

    Sources: Fxstreet