THE ETERNAL SOVEREIGN

Tag: economy

  • CPI Breakdown: 5 Rate-Sensitive Stocks to Watch

    The inflation print investors had been bracing for came in cooler than expected.

    Friday’s January CPI showed headline inflation at 2.4%—below the 2.5% consensus forecast and the lowest annual reading since May 2025. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, eased to 2.5%, marking its softest level since April 2021. On a monthly basis, prices rose just 0.2%, the smallest increase since July.

    Markets reacted swiftly. Homebuilder stocks rallied sharply, small caps climbed 1.2%, and the 10-year Treasury yield slid to its lowest point since early December.

    My takeaway: the market may have just received the confirmation it was waiting for. And the most compelling opportunities from here likely aren’t the mega-cap tech leaders that have dominated performance, but rather rate-sensitive sectors that were punished under the “higher for longer” narrative and are now repricing for a potentially different 2026 backdrop.

    What the CPI Report Really Signals

    Shelter—by far the largest CPI component and the category that has stubbornly kept headline inflation elevated—rose only 0.2% in January, bringing the annual rate down to 3%. That’s a notable slowdown and perhaps the clearest indication yet that the housing inflation lag is beginning to unwind.

    Energy prices declined 1.5%, with gasoline tumbling 3.2% during the month. Food inflation held at 2.9% year over year—still somewhat elevated, but not alarming. Importantly, core goods prices were flat, helping to counter concerns that renewed tariffs would reignite goods inflation.

    “Headline CPI inflation was a touch softer than expected in January, delivering a welcome surprise to the downside at the beginning of the year,” said Bernard Yaros, lead economist at Oxford Economics. He added that tariff-related price pressures “are largely behind us.”

    Lindsay Rosner of Goldman Sachs Asset Management was even more direct: “Trust the groundhog. The Fed’s path to normalization cuts appears clearer now.”

    The timing is critical. A stronger-than-expected January jobs report—130,000 payrolls versus forecasts of 55,000—had pushed expectations for rate cuts further out, likely into the summer. This softer CPI reading shifts that outlook. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg now anticipate as much as 100 basis points of easing this year, with the first cut potentially arriving in June—or even March if disinflation continues.

    Why Rate-Sensitive Stocks Stand Out

    One key dynamic investors often overlook is that by the time the Federal Reserve actually begins cutting rates, much of the upside in rate-sensitive sectors has already played out. Markets tend to price in policy shifts well in advance.

    Friday’s CPI data appeared to give institutional investors the confidence to begin reallocating toward sectors poised to benefit from lower yields. The equal-weight version of the S&P 500 and the Russell 2000 both climbed 1.2%, notably outperforming the traditional cap-weighted S&P 500, which was little changed.

    That divergence is often viewed as a textbook signal of sector rotation—away from mega-cap dominance and toward more rate-sensitive, economically cyclical areas of the market.

    Capital is rotating down the market-cap ladder and into economically sensitive groups. Three segments stand out most clearly: homebuilders, REITs, and small caps.

    How to Position

    D.R. Horton (DHI)

    Closing Friday at $167.78, DHI is arguably the purest expression of the housing-affordability theme. The largest U.S. homebuilder by volume posted solid fiscal Q1 results in January, with revenue of $6.89 billion (ahead of $6.59 billion estimates) and EPS of $2.03 (vs. $1.93 expected).

    At roughly 15.3x trailing earnings, the stock trades at a notable discount to the broader market. Beyond the rate backdrop, there’s also a policy angle: the Trump administration’s reported “Trump Homes” initiative has involved direct engagement with builders around affordability measures—potentially creating a dual tailwind of lower mortgage rates and regulatory support.

    The median analyst price target is $170, with UBS as high as $195—suggesting upside potential of roughly 16%.

    Lennar (LEN)

    Trading at $122.28, Lennar offers a slightly different profile as the second-largest U.S. builder. Its “land-light” model—optioning land instead of holding it outright—reduces balance-sheet risk and positions it well for a rate-cutting cycle.

    The stock has rebounded about 40% from its April 2025 lows but remains below its 2024 peak. With fiscal Q1 earnings due in late March, improving mortgage application trends could serve as a near-term catalyst if rates continue to ease.

    SPDR S&P Homebuilders ETF (XHB)

    At $121.36, XHB is up nearly 18% year-to-date and recently marked a fresh 52-week high of $123.13. As an equal-weighted ETF, it offers diversified exposure across the housing ecosystem—not just large builders, but also building products manufacturers, home improvement retailers, and construction suppliers.

    For investors who prefer sector exposure over single-stock risk, XHB provides a balanced approach.

    Vanguard Real Estate ETF (VNQ)

    Trading near $94.59—close to its 52-week high—VNQ provides broad exposure to the REIT space, one of the most rate-sensitive areas of the market. The ETF holds over 150 REITs across healthcare, industrial, data center, and retail subsectors.

    Its largest holdings include Welltower, Prologis, and American Tower.

    With an average analyst target near $100.81, implied upside sits around 8%, in addition to a dividend yield of roughly 3.6%. After significant underperformance during the rate-hiking cycle, REITs are positioned to benefit mechanically as yields decline.

    iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM)

    At approximately $263, IWM tracks small-cap equities—arguably the most interest-rate-sensitive segment of the equity market. Smaller firms tend to carry more floating-rate debt and are disproportionately affected by elevated borrowing costs. That dynamic can reverse sharply when policy eases.

    IWM surged 1.6% on Friday’s CPI release alone. With its 52-week high of $271.60 within reach, sustained rate declines could drive a prolonged catch-up rally in small caps.

    The Big Picture

    If inflation continues to moderate and rate-cut expectations firm, the leadership baton may continue shifting away from mega-cap growth and toward housing, real estate, and smaller domestically oriented companies. Markets typically front-run the policy cycle—and this rotation suggests that repositioning may already be underway.

    The Bear Case (and Why It May Be Overstated)

    There are valid reasons for caution. Fox Business pointed out that January’s CPI could carry a downward bias tied to last fall’s government shutdown. During that period, the Bureau of Labor Statistics missed portions of October data collection and relied on a “carry-forward” methodology that may influence inflation readings into spring 2026. In short, the 2.4% headline figure could be somewhat understated.

    There’s also the Federal Reserve itself. Policymakers are not signaling urgency. Oxford Economics continues to project cuts in June and December rather than March. Meanwhile, although the labor market is cooling—annual benchmark revisions show 2025 job growth was the weakest since 2003 outside recessionary periods—it is far from collapsing. Jerome Powell has consistently emphasized the need for a sustained disinflation trend, not a single favorable report.

    The Counterargument

    Even if the Fed waits until June, markets won’t. Yields have already declined meaningfully. Mortgage rates are edging lower. And sectors that trade on rate expectations—rather than the actual fed funds rate—are beginning to reprice now. By the time the first official cut arrives, much of the move in rate-sensitive equities could already be behind us.

    What to Watch

    Three near-term catalysts will likely shape the next phase:

    1. Fed Minutes (Feb. 18): The release of the latest policy meeting minutes could shift expectations quickly. Any dovish commentary on inflation progress or labor-market softness may pull forward rate-cut pricing.
    2. Walmart Q4 Earnings (Feb. 19): As the largest U.S. retailer—now with a market cap above $1 trillion and up 13% year-to-date—Walmart’s guidance will offer real-time insight into consumer spending trends. If easing inflation is translating into stronger purchasing power, that reinforces the soft-landing narrative.
    3. PCE Price Index (Later This Month): The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge will be pivotal. Confirmation of CPI’s cooling trend would likely solidify expectations for a June cut and intensify debate around a possible March move—potentially fueling the next leg higher in rate-sensitive stocks.

    Bottom Line

    The inflation backdrop has shifted in a way that favors investors. The opportunity isn’t complex—but it does require stepping away from the mega-cap tech trade that has dominated for the past two years and leaning into sectors positioned to benefit most from falling yields.

    Sources: Jaachi Mbachu

  • S&P 500: Close Below 6,780 Signals a 60% Chance the Rally Has Ended

    The Elliott Wave (EW) framework seeks to measure and interpret investor sentiment, which unfolds in recognizable wave patterns. These waves can span extremely short periods—such as minutes—or stretch across decades and even centuries. At its core, the pattern reflects a “three steps forward, two steps back” progression. Because this structure repeats across multiple timeframes, it is considered fractal in nature.

    Given that markets are non-linear, stochastic, and probabilistic, Elliott Wave analysis does not predict certainties but instead identifies the most probable path forward—so long as key price levels remain intact. If those levels are breached—such as a downside break signaling a potential top—the outlook shifts, providing a clear framework for adjusting positions to protect profits or limit losses.

    Turning to the S&P 500, we have been monitoring an advance labeled green Wave 5, forming what appears to be an overlapping ending diagonal (ED) since the November 2025 low (green Wave 4). As illustrated in Figure 1, we first identified this developing structure in mid-December and have been tracking its progression closely to assess how the pattern ultimately resolves.

    Figure 1. Intermediate-term Elliott Wave count for the S&P 500 (SPX).

    An ending diagonal is made up of five overlapping waves—here labeled gray Wave i through v. Importantly, each of those gray waves unfolds as its own three-wave structure. Three-wave patterns are notoriously difficult to forecast, and the current sideways action in the index reflects that overlapping, indecisive character. (See Figure 2.)

    At present, the S&P 500 is trading near the same levels seen in late October. The 6,985 area has been tested ten times (red arrows), while support around 6,780 has held on four occasions (green arrows). This repeated interaction with resistance and support suggests a developing range.

    Range-bound conditions tend to frustrate traders because the absence of a clear directional trend makes forecasting more challenging. From a symmetry standpoint, an upside breakout projects toward approximately 7,190 (6,985 + 6,985 − 6,780), highlighted by the green box. Conversely, a breakdown below support would imply a downside target near 6,575 (6,780 − 6,985 + 6,780), marked by the red box.

    With today’s price action, the bulls appear to be on the brink. However, if the index manages to close higher, a positive divergence could form on the daily RSI(5) (green arrow), signaling that downside momentum may be fading and giving way to emerging upside strength.

    Figure 2. The S&P 500 since October 2025 has largely traded within a defined range.

    As noted earlier, Elliott Wave analysis outlines the most probable path forward—provided key price levels remain intact. Once those levels are breached, the outlook shifts, giving traders a clear signal to protect gains or limit losses.

    In this case, the pivotal level is the November low at 6,521. A decisive break beneath that threshold would signal that the ending diagonal has completed and that a larger corrective phase—black Wave 4 in Figure 1—is underway, with a preferred target zone between 5,500 and 6,125, ideally toward the upper end of that range.

    For now, the focus remains on 6,780. If the bulls can defend that level—our third warning threshold—we can still allow for a final gray Wave v advance toward roughly 7,120–7,190, potentially extending into the April turn window. However, a daily close below 6,780 raises the probability to about 60% that the broader uptrend has already topped.

    Should support fail, attention quickly shifts to 6,575 as the next downside level to monitor.

    Sources: Arnout ter Schure

  • Bitcoin Still Feels the Impact of the “10/10” Market Meltdown

    Four months ago, the digital asset market experienced what I consider its most significant liquidation event to date. On October 10, 2025, more than $19 billion in leveraged positions were erased within a matter of hours. Bitcoin tumbled from around $122,000 to $105,000, and over 1.6 million trader accounts were forced into liquidation.

    The so-called “10/10” crypto crash did more than shake prices—it reshaped the psychological backdrop of crypto investing.

    As I mentioned on PreMarket Prep last week, from a technical perspective Bitcoin is currently trading about two standard deviations below its 20-day average—a condition that has appeared only three times in the past five years. Historically, such stretched readings have tended to precede short-term rebounds over the following 20 trading sessions.

    The unwinding of the Japanese carry trade—estimated at roughly $500 billion—likely added to the weakness seen in January and again this month. Still, I believe much of that pressure has now run its course.

    With Bitcoin still trading below $70,000—about 45% off its all-time high—some investors may be asking whether the events of October 10 are the reason the downturn has lingered.

    The short answer is yes. But the deeper explanation is more complex—and, in my view, more relevant for portfolio positioning going forward.

    What Really Happened

    To put it in context, the 10/10 crash surpassed the FTX collapse in absolute dollar losses. It effectively overshadowed the failure of what had been the world’s second-largest crypto exchange. Binance alone reportedly drew $188 million from its insurance fund to cover bad debt, while several other trading platforms faced comparable strains.

    As for the catalyst, many point to President Donald Trump’s announcement of a 100% tariff on Chinese imports, layered on top of an existing 30% levy.

    That geopolitical jolt rattled global markets. But in crypto—where leverage is deeply embedded in the system—it transformed what might have been a routine correction into a cascading liquidation event.

    The crash laid bare deep structural flaws in how exchanges were managing risk, with one platform in particular drawing scrutiny.

    The Binance Factor

    Star Xu, founder and CEO of OKX, recently posted a detailed breakdown on X outlining his view of how the 10/10 meltdown unfolded.

    According to Xu, Binance rolled out an aggressive user acquisition push offering 12% APY on USDe, a synthetic dollar built on Ethereum. At the same time, the exchange permitted USDe to be posted as collateral under the same terms as established stablecoins such as Tether (USDT) and USD Coin (USDC).

    Xu argues this created a distorted incentive structure. Users were enticed to swap USDT and USDC for USDe in pursuit of higher yields, often without fully appreciating the added risk profile.

    A leverage loop soon followed. Traders converted USDT into USDe, pledged USDe as collateral to borrow more USDT, then recycled the borrowed funds back into USDe—repeating the process. Xu claims this dynamic drove advertised yields as high as 24%, 36%, and even above 70%.

    When volatility surged, USDe quickly lost its peg, unleashing cascading liquidations. The market entered a classic doom loop: forced selling triggered margin calls, which in turn sparked further forced selling.

    For its part, Binance has denied responsibility. Speaking at a crypto conference last week, co-CEO Richard Teng attributed the turmoil entirely to President Donald Trump’s tariff announcement. Still, allowing heavily leveraged positions in a market where stop-losses can be gamed and safeguards are thin creates systemic fragility. In such an environment, even a minor shock can ignite a chain reaction.

    The Psychological Fallout

    October 10 erased more than leveraged trades—it shattered investor confidence. The event coincided with Bitcoin peaking near $126,000 and sparked a wave of fear that continues to weigh on sentiment.

    In the weeks that followed, ETFs saw meaningful outflows. Retail traders—many of whom had piled into futures and margin positions as Bitcoin hit record highs—were hit hardest. More than 1.6 million accounts were liquidated, a large share belonging to smaller participants.

    This month’s follow-on decline, which marked Bitcoin’s largest realized loss on record as prices slid from $70,000 to $60,000, was described by one analyst as a “textbook capitulation.” The drop was swift, volume-heavy, and flushed out holders with the weakest conviction.

    Why I’m Still Constructive

    Despite persistent volatility, I remain long-term bullish because the underlying fundamentals remain intact.

    Institutional participation continues to expand. Corporate Bitcoin treasuries—often referred to as Digital Asset Treasury (DAT) firms—now collectively control more than 1.1 million BTC, about 5.7% of total supply, valued near $90 billion. MicroStrategy (now operating as Strategy) alone holds roughly 3.5% of Bitcoin’s circulating supply.

    Notably, institutions added around 43,000 BTC in January, even amid adverse price conditions—suggesting that long-term capital remains engaged despite the market’s recent turbulence.

    The U.S. Strategic Bitcoin Reserve now reportedly holds more than 325,000 BTC—about 1.6% of total supply—making it the largest sovereign holder globally. At the same time, other nation-states are building positions, much as they do with gold, and major corporations continue to add to their allocations.

    The Bottom Line

    I’ve long described Bitcoin as “digital gold,” but I don’t believe it has fully evolved into a true safe-haven asset. For now, institutions largely categorize it as a risk-on asset rather than risk-off. That suggests it is still carving out its place within diversified portfolios.

    Was October 10 the root cause of Bitcoin’s prolonged weakness? In my view, yes. The event delivered a structural shock that obliterated leveraged positions and forced a sweeping—if painful—deleveraging across the digital asset ecosystem.

    Did aggressive marketing and flawed incentive structures at certain platforms worsen the fallout? Again, I would argue yes. Encouraging investors to treat what was effectively a tokenized hedge strategy as if it were a stablecoin—while layering on substantial leverage—inevitably magnified systemic risk.

    As severe as the collapse was, it may ultimately prove constructive. Excess leverage often needs to be purged before a sustainable advance can resume. My sense is that we are nearing the final phase of that cleansing process.

    Sources: Frank Holmes

  • Gold steadies after sliding about 2% as U.S.– Iran talks show progress; traders weigh implications of upcoming Fed policy.

    Gold prices held steady in Asian trading on Wednesday following a sharp decline in the previous session, as reduced geopolitical tensions and a stronger U.S. dollar curbed safe-haven demand, with investors looking ahead to new signals on the Federal Reserve’s policy direction.

    Spot gold rose 0.1% to $4,884.16 an ounce as of 20:24 ET (01:24 GMT), while U.S. gold futures slipped 0.1% to $4,899.91.

    Trading activity in Asia remained subdued due to Lunar New Year holidays across several key regional markets, keeping price movements limited.

    The precious metal had fallen more than 2% on Tuesday amid improved risk sentiment following indications of progress in U.S.–Iran negotiations. Both sides reportedly reached an understanding on key “guiding principles,” boosting optimism for a diplomatic breakthrough and reducing demand for bullion as a safe-haven asset.

    Gold’s earlier losses were amplified by a firmer dollar, which makes the metal costlier for holders of other currencies, as well as diminishing expectations of imminent U.S. rate cuts. The U.S. Dollar Index rose 0.1% during Asian hours after gaining 0.3% in the previous session.

    Investors remained cautious ahead of the release of minutes from the Federal Reserve’s January meeting, due later in the day, which may provide further clarity on the timing and extent of potential policy easing.

    Attention is also focused on Friday’s U.S. personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index for December—the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation—which could significantly influence rate expectations.

    Generally, higher interest rates tend to pressure non-yielding assets like gold, while expectations of monetary easing typically lend support to prices.

    Sources: Ayushman Ojha

  • U.S. stock futures tick down as the tech rebound loses steam; investors look ahead to the Fed minutes.

    U.S. stock index futures slipped modestly on Tuesday night as a fragile rebound in technology shares showed signs of strain, with investors remaining cautious ahead of a wave of economic data and Federal Reserve signals.

    Futures pulled back following a mildly upbeat session on Wall Street, where tech stocks attempted to bounce from recent declines. The recovery, however, was uneven, as lingering concerns over AI-driven disruptions continued to cloud sentiment in the sector.

    By 19:55 ET (00:55 GMT), S&P 500 futures were down 0.1% at 6,851.50, Nasdaq 100 futures fell 0.2% to 24,721.0, and Dow Jones futures slipped 0.1% to 49,553.0.

    Economic data, Fed minutes in focus

    Attention now turns to several key economic releases and the minutes from the Fed’s January meeting, due Wednesday afternoon. Investors are looking for greater clarity on the central bank’s interest rate outlook after policymakers kept rates steady last month and signaled ongoing caution over persistent inflation and softening labor market conditions.

    January industrial production figures are scheduled for Wednesday, followed by December’s PCE price index on Friday — the Fed’s preferred inflation measure and a key input into its longer-term rate projections.

    Uncertainty surrounding the Fed has weighed on markets in recent weeks, particularly after President Donald Trump’s nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Fed Chair was interpreted as a less dovish shift in leadership.

    Nvidia, Meta pare gains; AMD cuts losses

    NVIDIA and Meta Platforms gave back some after-hours gains but still rose about 0.6% each after announcing a multi-year partnership to expand AI infrastructure, with Nvidia set to supply millions of chips to Meta.

    Rival AMD, which had dropped as much as 4% following the announcement, reduced its losses to trade roughly 2% lower.

    Technology stocks remain sensitive after weeks of declines fueled by concerns about AI-related disruption — especially within software — as well as skepticism over elevated AI spending and the sector’s long-term growth outlook.

    Wall Street posts modest gains

    Major indexes ended Tuesday slightly higher, supported by a patchy tech rebound and strength in financial stocks. The S&P 500 rose 0.1% to 6,843.22, the Nasdaq Composite added 0.1% to 22,578.38, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.07% to 49,533.19.

    While some dip-buying helped tech shares recover modestly, heavyweight names including Microsoft, Tesla, Alphabet, and Oracle extended last week’s declines.

    Markets also drew limited support from reports of progress in U.S.-Iran nuclear discussions, easing some concerns about escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.

    Sources: Ambar Warrick

  • U.S.- Iran discussions loom while Palo Alto Networks prepares to report — market movers

    U.S. stock futures edge lower

    U.S. stock futures drifted near the flatline Tuesday as investors braced for a wave of economic data and corporate earnings in a holiday-shortened week.

    As of 03:04 ET, Dow futures were down 26 points (0.1%), S&P 500 futures slipped 11 points (0.2%), and Nasdaq 100 futures dropped 99 points (0.4%). Wall Street’s main indexes were closed Monday for a public holiday.

    Markets ended Friday mixed, with investors weighing the broader impact of new artificial intelligence models and questioning whether heavy AI infrastructure spending will generate strong returns for mega-cap tech firms. At the same time, cooler-than-expected U.S. consumer price data for January fueled expectations that the Federal Reserve could bring forward its next interest rate cut after pausing its easing cycle last month. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite edged down 0.2%, while the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average posted gains.

    Crude prices steady ahead of U.S.-Iran negotiations

    In commodities, Brent crude ticked lower ahead of planned talks between the U.S. and Iran in Geneva over Tehran’s nuclear enrichment program. A firmer dollar, ahead of key economic releases and signals from the Fed, also weighed on oil prices. Brent for April delivery fell 0.7% to $68.13 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate futures rose 0.6% to $63.11, with the move partly influenced by Monday’s U.S. market holiday.

    U.S. and Iranian officials are scheduled to meet in Switzerland on Tuesday amid elevated tensions in the Middle East, as Washington increases its regional military presence. President Donald Trump has repeatedly warned of potential military action if Iran declines a U.S.-backed agreement.

    Trading activity was subdued across Asia due to Lunar New Year holidays in China, Hong Kong, Taiwan, South Korea, and Singapore.

    Gold declines

    Gold prices moved lower Tuesday, with silver also retreating, as traders stayed cautious ahead of a slate of U.S. economic data due this week.

    At 03:09 ET, spot gold fell 1.4% to $4,919.72 an ounce, while April gold futures dropped 2.2% to $4,941.74. Spot silver slid 2.0% to $75.0925 per ounce, whereas platinum edged up 0.2% to $2,024.79.

    Precious metals have been volatile in recent weeks, posting sharp swings and remaining well below their late-January highs.

    Investor focus is shifting to upcoming U.S. economic releases, along with minutes from the January meeting of the Federal Reserve, when policymakers kept interest rates unchanged at 3.5% to 3.75%.

    U.S. industrial production figures are scheduled for release on Wednesday, followed by Friday’s PCE price index report — one of the Fed’s key measures of inflation.

    Palo Alto Networks earnings ahead

    Attention is also turning to results from Palo Alto Networks, due after U.S. markets close Tuesday, which could offer further insight into the outlook for tech firms grappling with rising competition from newly launched AI models.

    The California-based cybersecurity group raised its full-year revenue and profit guidance in November, pointing to strong demand for its digital security solutions amid growing online threats.

    Palo Alto also unveiled a $3.35 billion acquisition of cloud management and monitoring firm Chronosphere, saying it plans to fold the business into its Cortex AgentiX platform. The integration is designed to allow Palo Alto’s AI agents to leverage Chronosphere’s data to identify performance bottlenecks and pinpoint root causes more effectively.

    Together with a separate agreement to acquire identity security specialist CyberArk Software, the Chronosphere transaction is slated to be finalized in the second half of Palo Alto’s fiscal 2026.

    Nikkei extends slide

    Japan’s benchmark Nikkei 225 slipped again, adding to Monday’s losses after data showed the country’s economy grew far less than expected in the fourth quarter.

    Official figures revealed that gross domestic product expanded at an annualized rate of 0.2% in the October–December period — well below forecasts of 1.6%. Still, the reading marked a rebound from the prior quarter, when the world’s fourth-largest economy contracted by 2.6%.

    The weak data highlights the economic hurdles facing Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi following her sweeping election victory earlier this month. While she appears to have secured a mandate to implement stimulus measures aimed at boosting growth, her government must contend with persistent cost-of-living pressures that continue to dampen domestic demand.

    Adding to the complexity is the stance of the Bank of Japan, where policymakers are working to address stubborn inflation and yen weakness. Officials have indicated they intend to continue raising interest rates after years of ultra-loose monetary policy.

  • Core inflation (excluding shelter) edges higher, signaling that tariff-related risks still persist.

    One of the most significant macroeconomic trends of recent decades has been the sharp decline in labor’s share of income. As David Hay notes, the rise of populism in the US mirrors the long expansion in corporate profit margins — essentially the flip side of a prolonged downturn in labor’s share.

    This shift was largely driven by favorable demographics and accelerating globalization. However, both forces now appear to be reversing. On the demographic front, Axios recently highlighted that older Americans are increasingly powering economic growth — a “gray-shaped” dynamic rather than the previously discussed K-shaped recovery.

    Meanwhile, the inflationary cost of deglobalization may only be beginning to surface. According to Brean Capital, core CPI excluding used vehicles and shelter has ticked higher, with the three-month annualized rate climbing to 2.9% from 1.1% in December. This suggests tariff-related pressures may still be lingering, complicating hopes for a smooth return to the Fed’s 2% inflation target.

    Financial markets are already reacting to these evolving macro conditions. As Callum Thomas observes, gold has been the best-performing asset class of the 2020s so far, while bonds have lagged significantly — raising questions about how the rest of the decade will unfold.

    Leadership within equities is also shifting. Research from Daily Chartbook indicates that the “Magnificent Seven” peaked relative to the energy sector in December 2025, matching the same relative level seen in October 2020 — just before the Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund embarked on a 250% rally over the following two years.

    So far this year, energy stands out as the stock market’s top-performing sector. According to Rob Thummel, the sector delivers what investors increasingly value: strong free cash flow, rising dividends, significant share buybacks, inflation hedging characteristics, and tangible asset exposure.

    Echoing this thematic rotation, Goldman Sachs suggests the market may be entering what one seasoned client calls the “revenge of the dinosaurs” phase — a resurgence of traditional, capital-intensive industries in an era marked by structural inflation pressures and shifting global dynamics.

    Sources: Jesse Felder

  • Silver price outlook: XAG/USD stays above $74.50 as bearish momentum builds.

    Silver is hovering around the $75.00–$77.00 region, struggling to capitalize on the US Dollar’s softness. Despite the weaker greenback, precious metals remain directionless in a subdued start to the week, with thin liquidity as several Asian markets were closed for Lunar New Year and US markets shut for President’s Day.

    XAG/USD is posting modest losses near $77.00, not far from last week’s low around $74.50. Price action has been choppy in recent weeks, but the broader bearish structure from the late-January peak remains intact. Bulls continue to face strong resistance below the key $80.00 psychological barrier, keeping upside attempts contained.

    Technical outlook

    On the 4-hour chart, silver trades beneath a declining 50-period Simple Moving Average (SMA), reinforcing the near-term bearish bias. The MACD histogram remains in negative territory, while the RSI stands near 43 — consistent with neutral-to-bearish momentum.

    Initial support lies around $74.40, near last week’s trough, followed by the February 6 low near $64.00. On the upside, immediate resistance is seen at the 50-period SMA around $80.00. A break above that could expose the upper boundary of last week’s range near $86.30, with stronger resistance ahead at the February 4 peak above $92.00.

    Overall, silver maintains a cautious, slightly bearish tone unless buyers reclaim the $80.00 level with convincing momentum.

    Sources: Guillermo Alcala

  • EUR/USD remains under selling pressure around the 1.1850 level.

    EUR/USD is slipping for a fifth consecutive session, though it continues to trade above the crucial 20-day SMA. Momentum indicators remain in positive-to-neutral territory, with the RSI hovering slightly above its midpoint and flattening, while the MACD stays above zero but just below its signal line — a sign that upside momentum has eased without fully turning bearish.

    The pair is stabilizing around 1.1865, extending its retreat from the 1.1900 area even as the US dollar softened on Friday following weaker inflation data that strengthened expectations of Fed rate cuts. Trading conditions are relatively quiet on Monday due to the US President’s Day holiday.

    If price rebounds from the short-term ascending trendline and breaks above the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the January 27–February 6 decline at 1.1885, the next resistance could appear near 1.1923, which aligns with the 50% Fibonacci level and recent monthly highs. A stronger push higher may target the 1.1960–1.1974 zone, just beneath the key 1.2000 mark — the highest level since mid-2021.

    On the downside, further weakness could bring the pair back toward the 20-day SMA near the 23.6% Fibonacci level at 1.1839. Below that, attention would shift to the 1.1800–1.1820 area, followed by the February 6 low of 1.1765, which sits just above the 50-day SMA.

    Overall, despite the recent pullback, the near-term outlook remains constructive as long as EUR/USD holds above the 20-day SMA, with the 50-day SMA acting as stronger support in case of a deeper correction.

    Sources: Nicola joined

  • Bears in the S&P 500 E-Mini are aiming for a downside breakout below key support.

    The S&P 500 E-mini bears are targeting a decisive breakdown below the February 5 low and the 20-week EMA, followed by strong and sustained selling pressure. In contrast, bulls want the 20-week EMA to hold as support, and if prices decline, they are looking to the November 21 low as a key support level.

    S&P 500 E-Mini Futures – Weekly Chart

    This week’s candlestick formed an inside bear bar that closed in the lower half of its range while testing the 20-week EMA. As mentioned last week, the market was likely to continue moving sideways in the near term, and so far it remains confined within an 11-week tight trading range.

    From the bearish perspective, the chart shows a wedge top (December 11, December 26, and January 12), a double top (October 29 and January 28), and a smaller double top (January 12 and January 28). Bears want the October 29 high to serve as resistance. Their goal is a strong breakout below the February 5 low and the 20-week EMA, followed by continued selling that could project a measured move down toward 6,500, based on the height of the 11-week range. To shift the market into an Always In Short condition, bears need consecutive strong bear bars closing well below the 20-week EMA. If the market moves higher, they prefer weak follow-through buying to raise the probability of a failed breakout.

    Bulls, on the other hand, see a large double-bottom bull flag (December 17 and February 5), along with a High 4 buy setup. They need a powerful breakout above the January 28 high with sustained follow-through to increase the likelihood of trend continuation, targeting a measured move toward 7,300, based on the range height. Bulls want the 20-week EMA to hold as support, and if prices fall, they expect the November 21 low to provide backing.

    The market has traded in a tight range for 11 weeks, reflecting a balance between buyers and sellers as bearish pressure has caught up with the prior uptrend. Over the past two weeks, bulls have been unable to break above previous highs and have seen progressively lower closes within the range.

    Until a decisive breakout occurs, traders may continue to apply a Buy Low, Sell High strategy within the range. Market participants will watch whether bears can push through the bottom of the 11-week range with strong follow-through selling, or whether bulls can retest and break above the all-time high. However, even if a new high is reached, lack of sustained buying would increase the risk of a failed breakout.

    Alternatively, the market may continue to consolidate around the October 29 high. Most traders will likely wait for a clear breakout with strong follow-through—either above the all-time high or below the 20-week EMA—before committing aggressively. The longer price stalls near the October 29 high without breaking higher, the greater the probability of a deeper pullback.

    Daily S&P 500 E-Mini Chart

    The market edged higher early in the week. Although Tuesday and Wednesday opened with gap-ups, both sessions reversed and closed as bear bars. On Thursday, a large bear bar formed, testing the 100-day EMA, and Friday printed a doji, signaling hesitation.

    Last week, traders were monitoring whether price would stall near the 20-day EMA and develop a second sideways-to-down leg, or whether bulls could produce enough follow-through buying to push to new all-time highs. So far, price action is pausing around both the 20-day EMA and the all-time high zone.

    From the bullish perspective, the chart shows a large double-bottom bull flag (December 17 and February 5), a wedge bull flag (January 2, January 20, and February 5), and a smaller double bottom (February 5 and February 13). Bulls are aiming for a decisive breakout above the January 28 high with sustained buying momentum, targeting a measured move toward 7,300 based on the height of the 11-week range. If the market declines, they want the November 21 low or the 200-day EMA to provide support. To improve the odds of a successful breakout and renewed uptrend, bulls need consecutive strong bull bars.

    Bears, meanwhile, want the 20-day EMA to cap price as resistance. Their objective is a clear breakdown below the 11-week trading range, with a projected move toward 6,500 based on the same range measurement. To shift the market into an Always In Short condition, they need consecutive strong bear bars breaking below the December 17 low and the 100-day EMA. If the market rallies to a new all-time high, bears prefer to see weak follow-through buying to raise the likelihood of a failed breakout.

    The market continues to trade within a range that began in late November, with bulls seeking an upside breakout and bears pushing for a downside resolution. Since late December, price action has shaped an expanding triangle, which can serve as either a continuation or reversal pattern and often traps traders with false breakouts before reversing.

    Over the past two weeks, bear bars have been more pronounced than bull bars, suggesting gradually increasing and cumulative selling pressure. Traders are closely watching whether the market keeps stalling around the 20-day EMA and the all-time high area. A pattern of slightly lower highs accompanied by stronger bear bars would increase the probability of a downside breakout. Conversely, if bulls manage a breakout to new highs, traders will look for strong follow-through; without it, the risk of a failed breakout rises.

    Until a decisive move with sustained momentum occurs in either direction, traders may continue applying a Buy Low, Sell High (BLSH) approach — buying near the lower third of the range and selling near the upper third.

    Sources: Al Brooks

  • Top Pick and Stock to Avoid This Week: Analog Devices and Walmart

    The upcoming holiday-shortened trading week will spotlight the Federal Reserve’s FOMC minutes and Walmart’s earnings report.

    Analog Devices enters its earnings release with Wall Street projecting a strong 41% increase in EPS alongside 28% revenue growth. Meanwhile, Walmart may face downside risk, as expectations appear stretched and the stock looks “priced for perfection” ahead of results.

    On Friday, U.S. equities finished largely flat as investors digested softer-than-expected inflation data, reinforcing expectations that the Federal Reserve remains on course to cut interest rates this year.

    Despite the muted close, major indexes posted weekly losses. Concerns over AI-driven disruption extended beyond technology shares, weighing on brokerages, commercial real estate companies, and logistics firms.

    The S&P 500 declined 1.4%, marking its second straight weekly drop. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 1.2%, while the Nasdaq Composite slid 2.1%, notching its fifth consecutive weekly loss — its longest downturn since May 2022.

    The week ahead is shaping up to be active as investors continue evaluating the outlook for growth, inflation, and monetary policy. U.S. markets will be closed Monday in observance of Presidents Day.

    With limited economic data on the calendar, attention will center on the minutes from the Fed’s January FOMC meeting, which could provide further clues on the interest-rate trajectory. Friday will also bring the release of the latest core PCE price index, a key inflation gauge.

    As of Sunday morning, markets are pricing in two 25-basis-point rate cuts by the end of 2026, with about a 50% probability of an additional reduction, according to Investing.com’s Fed Monitor Tool.

    On the corporate front, Walmart’s earnings will headline the final stretch of reporting season. Other notable reports due include Deere, Palo Alto Networks, and Toll Brothers.

    Investors are also awaiting a U.S. Supreme Court decision expected Friday regarding the legality of President Donald Trump’s global tariffs.

    Regardless of market direction, below are one stock that could attract buying interest and another that may face renewed selling pressure in the week of Monday, February 16 through Friday, February 20.

    Stock to Buy: Analog Devices

    Analog Devices (NASDAQ: ADI) remains well-positioned at the center of the industrial semiconductor recovery. The company is set to release its fiscal first-quarter results on Wednesday at 7:00 a.m. ET, with analysts forecasting a 41% jump in earnings per share and 28% revenue growth, driven by accelerating demand in robotics, automation, and AI-related infrastructure.

    Sentiment heading into the report has been increasingly upbeat. InvestingPro data shows that 23 of the past 25 EPS revisions have been upward, reflecting rising confidence in the company’s growth trajectory. In the options market, traders are pricing in a potential post-earnings swing of approximately ±4.2%.

    Analog Devices continues to benefit from long-term structural themes, including electrification, factory automation, and data-center expansion. Following prior inventory adjustments, recent quarters have demonstrated a solid rebound, supported by strong free cash flow generation that underpins dividends and share repurchases.

    Technically, ADI has maintained a firm uptrend, recently reaching highs near $344 before experiencing a modest pullback. The stock remains comfortably above key moving averages and is showing relative strength versus the broader market. Immediate support lies in the $325–$330 range, while resistance stands near its record high around $344.

    Across multiple timeframes, indicators point to strong bullish momentum. If earnings meet or exceed expectations, the technical setup suggests the potential for a breakout move.

    Trade Setup:

    • Entry: Near current levels (~$337)
    • Target: $350–$360 (approximately 4%–7% upside)
    • Stop-Loss: $325 (around 3.5% downside risk)

    Stock to Sell: Walmart

    Walmart (NASDAQ: WMT) has just crossed the historic $1 trillion market cap milestone and is set to release earnings Thursday at 7:00 AM ET. Fundamentally, the company remains strong: it’s expanding grocery market share, scaling its high-margin advertising segment, and leveraging AI to improve efficiency.

    However, valuation is the key concern. With a forward P/E of 50.6x, the stock appears priced for flawless execution. That leaves minimal margin for disappointment. Even a slight miss in forward guidance could spark a notable pullback as expectations reset. Options markets are implying a post-earnings swing of just over 8 points in either direction.

    Wall Street expects EPS of $0.73 (around 10% year-over-year growth) on roughly $190 billion in revenue. This will be the first earnings report under new CEO John Furner, adding another layer of scrutiny. Analyst sentiment has turned more cautious recently, with more than half of the latest estimate revisions skewing lower.

    Oppenheimer anticipates solid results but cautions that guidance may underwhelm—similar to last year’s Q4 report, when the stock dropped about 8%. Jefferies notes that Walmart benefits from price normalization and tighter consumer spending, but much of that optimism seems fully reflected in the share price.

    After a sharp rally to fresh record highs in the $134–$135 range, momentum appears stretched. Short-term technical indicators, including RSI, signal overbought conditions. Buying volume has begun to fade, and a negative surprise could push shares back toward support near $125.

    Trade Idea

    • Entry: Around $133–$134
    • Target: $125–$128 (approximately 7% downside)
    • Stop-Loss: $136 (around 2.5% risk)

    Sources: Jesse Cohen

  • Silver Technical Outlook: Could the Rio Rally Break Out Above 80.24?

    Silver futures remain confined within a clearly defined mean-reversion framework, anchored around the VC PMI equilibrium in the 76–77 range. This period of consolidation signals a transitional stage after the post–Chinese New Year liquidity reset and is laying the groundwork for the expected Rio Rally phase in the precious metals market.

    From a seasonal standpoint, the Chinese New Year period typically brings short-term volatility and reduced institutional participation. As the holiday ends and Asian markets resume full operations, liquidity and physical demand tend to rebound. This shift often signals the onset of the Rio Rally — a cyclical upswing that usually begins in late February or early March and can persist through the remainder of the year. The current corrective setup aligns with this historical tendency of accumulation preceding expansion.

    Time-cycle analysis highlights several high-probability inflection periods. The first key decision window falls between February 15–18, when price action is expected to define near-term direction around the VC PMI equilibrium. Sustained acceptance above the mean would indicate accumulation and bullish continuation, while rejection below it would open the door to a deeper corrective move toward support levels.

    The second cycle window, February 20–24, serves as a confirmation phase. When prices remain above the weekly mean around 79.28 during this period, the market often extends toward the Weekly Sell-1 and Sell-2 objectives at 84.80 and 91.65. Historically, this window has signaled the ignition stage of the Rio Rally, as institutional capital returns following the post-holiday liquidity reset.

    A third and broader expansion window unfolds between February 26 and March 5, coinciding with the March futures delivery cycle. This timeframe carries the strongest probability for a breakout and sustained directional move. A decisive close above 80.24 during this phase would trigger upside expansion toward 82.51, 84.80, and potentially 91.65 as momentum builds.

    Within the VC PMI framework, support at 74.72 (Daily Buy-1) and 72.43 (Weekly Buy-1) marks high-probability accumulation zones if retested. These levels align with Square-of-9 geometric support angles and outline the final corrective range before a broader advance. On the upside, resistance at 80.24 and 82.51 corresponds with descending Square-of-9 angles and functions as breakout thresholds.

    As the market moves beyond the Chinese New Year cycle and into the Rio Rally window, silver is approaching a pivotal time-cycle juncture. Sustained trade above the VC PMI equilibrium and a breakout through 80.24 would validate the start of the Rio Rally expansion phase into March and potentially beyond.

    Sources: Patrick MontesDeOca

  • A pivotal week of UK data begins as investors focus on the upcoming Bank of England rate decision.

    The UK faces a packed week of economic releases, with key labor market and inflation data likely to shape expectations for the upcoming Bank of England policy meeting. Investors are watching closely for clearer indications on employment trends and price pressures.

    Tuesday’s January employment report is forecast to show further cooling in the jobs market, alongside softer annual wage growth. Should these patterns persist into March, the case for a rate cut by the Bank of England next month would strengthen.

    On Wednesday, January inflation data will be published. Headline CPI is expected to edge lower, reflecting volatile airfare pricing, easing food costs, and the fading effects of last year’s private school tax changes. However, core services inflation is projected to remain relatively steady.

    Political uncertainty around Prime Minister Keir Starmer has eased somewhat, although betting markets still assign roughly a 70% chance that he could step down before the end of June.

    Analysts at ING note that sterling tends to weaken when concerns about Starmer’s leadership resurface. Coupled with their dovish outlook for the Bank of England, ING continues to favor EUR/GBP, maintaining a target of 0.88.

    Sources: Maria Ponnezhath

  • Key data releases and corporate earnings are due this week, while U.S.–Iran negotiations also influence market direction.

    Investors are preparing for a shortened trading week packed with fresh economic data and major corporate earnings. Meanwhile, oil prices are moving sideways as the U.S. and Iran get set for another round of nuclear negotiations in Switzerland. Reports suggest Warner Bros. Discovery may revisit takeover discussions with Paramount Skydance, while both gold and Bitcoin are edging lower.

    U.S. markets closed Monday

    U.S. stock exchanges are shut Monday for a holiday, but attention later in the week will shift to key economic releases and a busy earnings calendar.

    Wall Street ended Friday on a mixed note. Data showing U.S. inflation rose less than expected in January strengthened expectations that the Federal Reserve could begin cutting interest rates as early as June. Earlier, however, a strong labor market report had fueled speculation that the Fed — which reduced rates several times in 2025 — might delay further easing until the latter half of the year.

    The Nasdaq Composite remained pressured, reflecting persistent concerns about disruption in the tech and communications sectors from emerging artificial intelligence models. Investors are also questioning when heavy AI infrastructure spending by mega-cap companies will start generating meaningful returns.

    Focus now turns to Friday’s release of the December personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, along with a preliminary reading of fourth-quarter U.S. GDP. Earnings reports this week include results from Walmart, Palo Alto Networks, Analog Devices, and Booking Holdings.

    U.S.- Iran talks resume

    The U.S. and Iran are set to hold a second round of discussions in Switzerland regarding Tehran’s nuclear program, following renewed talks earlier this month.

    The diplomatic efforts come amid heightened tensions. Washington has deployed a second aircraft carrier to the Middle East and signaled it is prepared for prolonged military action if negotiations collapse. U.S. President Donald Trump has warned Tehran to accept a deal or face further military consequences.

    Iranian officials said over the weekend they are open to compromising on their nuclear activities in exchange for relief from stringent U.S. sanctions, adding that the next move rests with Washington.

    Analysts at ING noted that significant geopolitical risk remains priced into markets due to uncertainty around how the situation unfolds.

    Oil prices were largely steady in European trading Monday, with holiday closures in the U.S. and China dampening activity. Weak Japanese growth data also raised concerns about slowing demand. Brent crude for April hovered near $67.72 per barrel.

    Warner Bros. considers renewed talks

    Reports indicate a new development in the takeover saga involving Warner Bros. Discovery.

    According to Bloomberg, the company is weighing whether to reopen negotiations with Paramount Skydance after David Ellison’s studio group enhanced its hostile bid. Board members are reportedly evaluating whether Paramount’s proposal is more attractive than a competing offer from Netflix.

    Last week, Paramount pledged to increase the cash component for each quarter a deal is not finalized in 2026 and to cover any penalties Warner Bros. would incur for exiting its current agreement with Netflix. However, it did not raise its base offer of $30 per share.

    Gold retreats

    Gold prices slipped below key levels in European trade as the U.S. dollar stabilized following inflation data. Precious metals have been volatile in recent weeks, with both gold and silver remaining well below their late-January highs.

    Spot gold fell 0.9% to $4,998.69 per ounce, while April gold futures declined 0.6% to $5,018.69. Despite recent losses, safe-haven demand linked to U.S.-Iran tensions and prior dollar weakness had supported prices last week.

    Bitcoin declines

    Bitcoin extended its downturn after four consecutive weeks of steep losses. The cryptocurrency briefly approached $70,000 over the weekend before retreating 3.1% to $68,624.6. It has now erased roughly half its value since reaching a record near $126,000 in October.

    Separately, Strategy — the largest corporate holder of Bitcoin — said it could still meet its debt obligations even if Bitcoin were to fall to $8,000. The company holds 714,644 Bitcoin, funded through a combination of equity issuance and long-term debt.

    Sources: Scott Kanowsky

  • In Focus: USD/CAD, EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/MXN, Silver, Gold, USD/CHF, and USD/JPY

    USD/CAD

    The US dollar initially weakened against the Canadian dollar earlier in the week, slipping toward the 1.35 level before rebounding and showing renewed strength. This recovery is shaping a potential weekly hammer pattern. A break above the 1.3750 level could pave the way for further gains toward 1.40. Overall, the pair is likely to remain range-bound, continuing to trade within the broad sideways band that has held for more than a year.

    EUR/USD

    The euro climbed at the start of the week but now appears to be losing momentum, struggling to hold on to its gains. Traders are likely assessing whether the broader uptrend can be sustained. With the US dollar having been oversold against several currencies, the euro often serves as a key gauge for the greenback’s next move. Even if the pair breaks higher, the measured move from the prior consolidation range indicates that the upside may be limited to around 1.23.

    GBP/USD

    The British pound advanced early in the week but later surrendered roughly half of those gains amid continued choppy trading. The 1.3750 level remains a key area to monitor, as a decisive break above it could clear the path toward 1.39. On the downside, a pullback would likely find support around 1.35, followed by 1.33 if selling pressure intensifies. Overall, the US dollar appears to be regaining some strength.

    USD/MXN

    The US dollar has weakened further against the Mexican peso, with the pair appearing to drift toward the 17.00 level. A decisive break below that mark could open the door to a move toward 16.50. On the upside, any rebound is likely to face significant resistance around 17.50. That said, the pair may ultimately settle into a consolidation phase, similar to the range observed at this level in late 2023.

    Silver

    Silver remains highly erratic, with the week producing a volatile yet ultimately neutral candlestick. The $80 level appears to act as a pivot point and a magnet for price action. Strong support is seen near $70, while $90 stands out as a key resistance zone. Overall, the market is likely to continue exhibiting choppy and unpredictable movements.

    Gold

    Gold also moved in a back-and-forth manner throughout the week, with the $5,000 level emerging as a potential price magnet. A sustained break above $5,000 could signal the start of a stronger upward move. However, recent candlestick patterns tell a mixed story: a prominent Shooting Star formed a couple of weeks ago, followed by a hammer, suggesting ongoing uncertainty and likely consolidation. Still, the longer price holds near the $5,000 mark, the more it may indicate underlying bullish strength.

    USD/CHF

    The US dollar has declined against the Swiss franc, though the 0.76 level appears to be providing solid support. If the pair rebounds from this area, it could move toward the 0.79 level, which stands out as significant resistance. Overall, the market remains sensitive to potential action from the Swiss National Bank, and the risk of intervention if the franc strengthens too much makes taking short positions less appealing at this stage.

    USD/JPY

    The US dollar dropped sharply against the Japanese yen over the week and is now testing its 50-week EMA. A rebound from this area could see the pair target ¥156, with ¥158 as the next potential objective. On the longer-term charts, the ¥160 level—where price pulled back a few weeks ago—remains a significant resistance zone dating back to 1990.

    Although this week’s candlestick appears bearish, there are likely plenty of buyers waiting below. It may simply be a matter of allowing the market to stabilize before considering fresh long positions. For now, it’s a pair worth monitoring closely, but staying on the sidelines seems prudent.

    Sources: Christopher Lewis

  • Bitcoin drops to $68,000 as crypto markets extend losses into a fourth straight week.

    Bitcoin declined on Monday, deepening its downturn after crypto markets posted four consecutive weeks of heavy losses, as interest-rate uncertainty continued to dampen appetite for riskier assets.

    The largest cryptocurrency briefly touched $70,000 over the weekend before retreating. By 00:58 ET (05:58 GMT), Bitcoin was down 2.7% at $68,409.7.

    Strategy says liquidation unlikely unless Bitcoin drops to $8,000

    Strategy Inc (NASDAQ:MSTR), the biggest corporate holder of Bitcoin, said Sunday it can meet its debt obligations even if Bitcoin tumbles to $8,000. In a social media update, the company stated it could “withstand a drawdown in $BTC price to $8K and still have sufficient assets to fully cover our debt.”

    The firm owns 714,644 Bitcoins, financed through a combination of equity issuance and long-term borrowing. Led by prominent Bitcoin advocate Michael Saylor, Strategy has continued accumulating coins in recent weeks despite the broader market slide.

    Bitcoin has now erased about half its value since peaking near $126,000 in October, leading declines across speculative assets as traders grew cautious amid U.S. rate uncertainty.

    Extended losses had fueled speculation that Strategy might be forced to sell part of its holdings to service debt, though Saylor has repeatedly downplayed such concerns. Earlier this month, the company reported a $12.4 billion loss for the December quarter, compared with a $670.8 million loss a year earlier. Aside from its substantial Bitcoin position, Strategy generates relatively limited operating revenue.

    Crypto prices today: Altcoins mirror Bitcoin’s weakness

    Broader digital assets also moved lower Monday in line with Bitcoin’s sustained slump. Ethereum fell 6.1% to $1,958.63, while XRP dropped 7.7% to $1.4575.

    BNB declined about 4%, with Solana and Cardano sliding 5.4% and 6.2%, respectively.

    Among meme tokens, Dogecoin tumbled 11.4%, while TRUMP slipped 2.4%.

    Crypto sentiment has remained fragile since October, as both retail and institutional inflows slowed sharply. Meanwhile, a surge in gold prices amid speculative enthusiasm in precious metals has drawn attention away from Bitcoin, with investors favoring tangible assets.

    Sources: Ambar Warrick

  • Oil prices remain stable while attention centers on US-Iran geopolitical risks.

    Oil prices moved sideways in Asian trading on Monday, as attention centered on renewed diplomatic engagement between the U.S. and Iran, with investors wary of possible supply disruptions in the Middle East.

    Trading activity remained subdued due to public holidays in China and the U.S., while weak Japanese growth figures added to worries about slowing demand. Brent crude for April delivery slipped 0.2% to $67.65 per barrel by 21:15 ET (02:15 GMT).

    U.S.– Iran nuclear talks to resume

    The U.S. and Iran are set to hold a second round of discussions in Switzerland this week regarding Tehran’s nuclear program, following the restart of negotiations earlier in February. However, diplomatic efforts coincided with Washington deploying a second aircraft carrier to the Middle East and signaling readiness for extended military action should talks collapse.

    President Donald Trump reiterated warnings that Iran must agree to a deal or risk further military measures. Over the weekend, Iranian officials indicated a willingness to make concessions on their nuclear activities in exchange for relief from tough U.S. sanctions, adding that the next move rests with Washington.

    Tensions between the two countries have recently supported oil prices, as traders factored in a higher geopolitical risk premium amid fears of renewed conflict that could disrupt Iranian oil output.

    OPEC+ considering renewed output increases

    At the same time, some of oil’s geopolitical premium was tempered by a Reuters report suggesting that OPEC+ intends to restart production hikes from April. Higher output would enable member countries to capitalize on recent price gains, though increased supply could weigh on prices over the longer term.

    The group is scheduled to meet on March 1.

    Oil markets were pressured throughout 2025 by concerns of excess supply in 2026. Although OPEC+ gradually raised production last year, it paused further increases in December due to persistent oversupply worries.

    Nonetheless, crude prices climbed to a six-month high in early 2026 amid escalating Middle East tensions, while signs of global economic resilience fueled expectations that demand would stay firm.

    Sources: Ambar Warrick

  • European stocks inch up as miners kick off earnings calendar this week

    European equities moved modestly higher on Monday, helped by a broadly supportive earnings season, though trading volumes were thin due to holidays in both Asia and the United States.

    At 03:02 ET (08:02 GMT), Germany’s DAX advanced 0.4%, France’s CAC 40 added 0.2%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 gained 0.2%.

    Earnings season supports sentiment

    The week began quietly, with much of Asia observing the Lunar New Year holiday and U.S. markets closed for George Washington’s birthday. Still, investor mood in Europe remained constructive, as corporate results have generally exceeded expectations amid signs of a gradual economic recovery.

    According to LSEG data, companies accounting for 57% of Europe’s total market capitalization have reported fourth-quarter results so far, delivering average earnings growth of 3.9%—well above earlier projections for a 1.1% contraction. Around 60% of firms have beaten analyst estimates, compared with a typical quarterly average of 54%.

    While Monday’s earnings calendar is light, attention this week will center on Europe’s four largest mining groups—Rio Tinto, Glencore, Anglo American, and Antofagasta—as metals prices hover near recent highs.

    Meanwhile, Volkswagen is in focus after Manager Magazin reported that the carmaker plans to reduce costs by 20% across all brands by the end of 2028.

    In the U.S., the key earnings event will be results from Walmart on Thursday, with the retail heavyweight’s report expected to provide fresh insight into consumer spending trends.

    Economic data and oil markets

    On the macro front, Eurozone industrial production data for December is due later Monday and is forecast to show a 1.5% monthly decline.

    In the UK, property website Rightmove reported that average asking prices for newly listed homes dipped by just £12 in February to £368,019, following a sharp 2.8% rise in January.

    Earlier in Asia, Japan’s fourth-quarter GDP rose just 0.2% on an annualized basis, significantly below the 1.6% forecast, reinforcing the case for stronger fiscal support under Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi.

    Oil prices were broadly steady in holiday-thinned trading. Brent Crude futures edged down 0.1% to $67.66 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate slipped 0.1% to $62.68. Both benchmarks had already fallen between 0.5% and 1% last week after comments from U.S. President Donald Trump suggesting a potential deal with Tehran.

    The U.S. and Iran are scheduled to hold a second round of talks in Geneva on Tuesday as they continue efforts to address longstanding tensions over Tehran’s nuclear program.

    Sources: Peter Nurse

  • FX Markets Quiet Ahead of This Week’s Important Data and Events

    Here’s what you need to know for Monday, February 16:

    Major currency pairs begin the week trading within established ranges, as investors remain cautious ahead of several key events and important macroeconomic releases scheduled for later in the week. In Europe, December Industrial Production figures are due on Monday. Meanwhile, US stock and bond markets are closed for the Presidents Day holiday.

    The US Dollar Index ended last week on a softer note, as below-forecast inflation data prevented the greenback from gaining momentum before the weekend. According to the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, annual Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation slowed to 2.4% in January from 2.7% in December, undershooting expectations of 2.5%. Early Monday, the USD Index is moving sideways around the 97.00 mark during European trading hours.

    Early Monday, CBS News reported—citing two sources—that US President Donald Trump told Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu he would back Israeli strikes targeting Iran’s ballistic missile program. So far, markets have shown little reaction, with West Texas Intermediate crude trading largely flat near $62.80 per barrel.

    EUR/USD remains in consolidation mode, hovering just above 1.1850 after ending last week slightly higher. European Central Bank policymaker Joachim Nagel is expected to speak later in the day.

    In Asia, Japan’s data showed that fourth-quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) expanded at an annualized rate of 0.2%, rebounding from a 2.6% contraction in the prior quarter but missing the 1.6% growth forecast. After dropping nearly 3% last week, USD/JPY is recovering modestly, up 0.4% on the day to trade near 153.30.

    AUD/USD trades in a tight range below 0.7100 in European hours. The Reserve Bank of Australia will release minutes from its February meeting early Tuesday, when it raised the policy rate by 25 basis points to 3.85%.

    Gold surged on Friday and closed the week higher, though XAU/USD is struggling to maintain upward momentum and is trading below the $5,000 level on Monday morning in Europe.

    The UK’s Office for National Statistics is set to publish employment data on Tuesday. GBP/USD remains subdued, edging slightly below 1.3650.

    Finally, Statistics Canada will release January CPI data on Tuesday. USD/CAD trades steadily around 1.3600 in European hours after posting modest losses last week.

    Sources: Eren Sengezer

  • S&P 500: Market volatility widens as AI concerns trigger a valuation reset, says Deutsche Bank.

    Analysts at Deutsche Bank say mounting concerns about artificial intelligence have sparked a dramatic repricing in global equities, wiping out more than $1 trillion in market value and spreading volatility far beyond the technology sector. They note that softer U.S. economic data and mixed growth signals also contributed to a strong rally in Treasuries and weekly declines in the S&P 500.

    AI fears deepen and broaden the sell-off

    Over the past two weeks, markets have erased well over $1 trillion in global equity value amid worries that AI could fundamentally alter business models and squeeze profit margins across industries ranging from software and legal services to IT consulting, wealth management, logistics, insurance, real estate brokerage, and commercial property.

    What began as tech-driven volatility earlier in the month evolved into a more indiscriminate market downturn last week. The low point came on Thursday with a sharp drop in software stocks, but losses were widespread. Companies in wealth management, real estate, and financials posted double-digit declines, highlighting the breadth of the pullback.

    Market breadth reflected the shift: the equal-weighted S&P 500 fell 1.37% on Thursday before ending the week up 0.29% (including a 1.04% gain on Friday). Overall, major U.S. indices closed the week weaker, with the S&P 500 down 1.39%, the Nasdaq Composite off 2.10%, and the “Magnificent 7” sliding 3.24%.

    While AI-related fears dominated sentiment, a busy run of U.S. economic data also influenced markets. Early-week releases—including flat December retail sales, a softer fourth-quarter Employment Cost Index, and downgraded Q4 growth estimates from the Atlanta Fed—helped drive Treasury yields lower across the curve.

    Sources: Fxstreet

  • Gold holds intraday losses as Fed cut bets pressure USD.

    Gold starts the week under pressure, weighed down by a slight rebound in the US Dollar and improved market sentiment. Even so, ongoing geopolitical tensions—particularly ahead of the upcoming US-Iran talks—could offer support to the safe-haven metal. At the same time, expectations that the Federal Reserve will deliver additional rate cuts may restrain the Dollar and help cushion gold’s downside.

    During early European trading on Monday, Gold (XAU/USD) stays subdued but has bounced off its intraday low to hover near the key $5,000 psychological level. A mix of supportive factors suggests caution for traders considering aggressive short positions or anticipating a deeper decline.

    A modest uptick in the USD, coupled with a broadly upbeat risk mood, is putting mild pressure on bullion. However, geopolitical risks remain elevated ahead of the second round of US-Iran nuclear negotiations. The US has deployed another aircraft carrier to the region and signaled readiness for a prolonged military response if talks collapse. In turn, Iran’s Revolutionary Guards have warned of retaliation against US bases in the event of strikes. These tensions could underpin gold prices.

    Meanwhile, strong and sustained USD gains appear limited due to dovish Fed expectations, which tend to favor the non-yielding precious metal. Although last week’s robust Nonfarm Payrolls report initially supported the Dollar, softer US inflation data released Friday revived bets that the Fed could begin cutting rates as soon as June. Headline CPI rose 0.2% and core CPI increased 0.3% in the latest reading, reinforcing expectations of further policy easing and potentially limiting gold’s losses.

    Additionally, lighter trading conditions due to the US Presidents Day holiday may discourage traders from taking bold directional positions in XAU/USD. Upcoming remarks from Fed officials could influence both the Dollar and gold, but attention will center on Wednesday’s FOMC meeting minutes for clearer signals on the rate-cut outlook. Later in the week, global flash PMI data on Friday may provide fresh trading opportunities.

    XAU/USD 1-hour chart

    Gold is rejected at the 100-hour SMA resistance.

    XAU/USD’s failure to sustain gains above the 100-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) from Friday’s rally continues to favor the bears. The pair remains below this downward-sloping indicator near $5,028.40, which is limiting upside attempts and maintaining a negative intraday outlook. Meanwhile, the MACD has slipped beneath its signal line into negative territory, with an expanding bearish histogram highlighting growing downside momentum. The RSI sits at 45, in neutral territory but trending lower, in line with the softer bias.

    As long as XAU/USD trades below the falling 100-period SMA, pressure is likely to persist, with the negative MACD setup pointing to ongoing seller dominance. A stronger recovery would require the MACD to cross back above its signal line and the RSI to move above 50, a shift that would reduce bearish pressure and open the door for a corrective rebound.

    Sources: Haresh Menghani

  • Top stocks of the week

    C.H. Robinson, Charles Schwab, CBRE

    The AI-driven displacement trade weighed on multiple sectors this week.

    Logistics companies were particularly pressured, with C.H. Robinson (CHRW) dropping more than 14% on Thursday amid AI-related concerns. The stock has fallen over 10% for the week.

    Brokerage firm Charles Schwab slid starting Tuesday and is down roughly 9% over the past week. Its CEO told Bloomberg TV that management was “disappointed and surprised” by the sell-off, noting the firm is actively integrating AI to benefit clients.

    Real estate services company CBRE sank sharply on Wednesday and Thursday, leaving shares down about 15.2% for the week. While AI-related concerns contributed to the decline, weaker-than-expected revenue in its latest earnings report also weighed on sentiment.

    Applied Materials

    Applied Materials is on track to finish the week higher, surging more than 8% Friday (as of 13:20 ET) after posting quarterly results.

    The company exceeded consensus estimates and delivered strong second-quarter guidance. Brokerage Summit Insights upgraded AMAT to Buy, citing anticipated strength in wafer fabrication equipment (WFE) spending through the second half of 2026.

    Pinterest

    Shares of Pinterest tumbled more than 18% Friday following its post-close earnings release Thursday, bringing its weekly loss to over 22%.

    The company reported fourth-quarter earnings and revenue below analyst expectations and issued first-quarter guidance that also missed consensus. Loop Capital analyst Rob Sanderson said that while Pinterest has a compelling platform and strong user growth, challenges in monetization and exposure to unusual macro conditions are overshadowing its strengths.

    Sanderson downgraded PINS to Hold, noting it may take several quarters to complete its sales reorganization, manage higher spending, and rebuild investor confidence.

    Cisco Systems

    Shares of Cisco Systems dropped more than 12% Thursday following earnings.

    Although Cisco beat profit and revenue expectations and offered upbeat guidance, investors reacted negatively to weaker-than-anticipated gross margins. UBS analyst David Vogt noted that higher memory input costs are expected to pressure margins over the next several quarters, lowering FY26 gross margin forecasts.

    Unity Software

    Unity Software plunged more than 26% Wednesday after earnings, with losses extending into Thursday and Friday. The stock is now down 21% over the past week.

    While fourth-quarter results beat expectations, first-quarter revenue guidance disappointed investors. Despite that, Citizens analyst Andrew Boone maintained a positive stance, arguing that despite uncertainty around AI’s long-term impact, Unity’s platform remains essential for developers given the complexity of game creation and operations.

    Oracle

    After several weeks of declines tied to AI data center concerns, Oracle rebounded strongly, gaining more than 15% this week.

    On Monday, DA Davidson analyst Gil Luria upgraded Oracle to Buy from Neutral. He suggested that a restructured OpenAI could reestablish itself as a leading challenger to Google and meet its commitments to Oracle this year, potentially removing a key overhang for the stock.

    Sources: Sam Boughedda

  • Bitcoin steadies after gaining nearly 4%, yet remains on track for a fourth straight weekly decline.

    Bitcoin snapped a four-session slide on Friday, climbing nearly 4%, though it remained on course for its first four-week losing streak since November 2025. The leading cryptocurrency was up 3.7% at $68,776.1 by 17:15 ET (22:15 GMT), after dropping close to $65,000 in the prior session.

    Bitcoin pressured by tech slump as U.S. inflation eases.

    While Friday’s rebound trimmed some weekly losses, Bitcoin was still headed for a roughly 0.6% decline, struggling to build lasting upside momentum after bouncing from earlier lows and drifting back toward last week’s $60,000 support zone.

    Risk appetite has been fragile amid a prolonged selloff in technology stocks, driven by renewed concerns that artificial intelligence could disrupt traditional software and office-service business models. Those fears resurfaced on Thursday as investors questioned how automation and emerging AI tools might erode established revenue streams.

    At the same time, fresh U.S. inflation data showed price pressures eased more than anticipated in January. According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, headline CPI rose 2.4% year-over-year, down from 2.7% in December, while core CPI increased 2.5%, matching forecasts.

    On a monthly basis, headline CPI gained 0.2% and core CPI 0.3%, with the softer headline figure boosting expectations that the Federal Reserve could move toward policy easing. However, strong labor market data earlier in the week—highlighting solid payroll growth and a lower unemployment rate—had dampened hopes for near-term rate cuts.

    Dessislava Ianeva of Nexo Dispatch noted that crypto markets appear to be stabilizing after the softer CPI reading, even as ETF outflows continue, with positioning data suggesting lower leverage and consolidation rather than a fresh directional breakout.

    Crypto leaders appointed to CFTC Innovation Advisory Committee.

    Separately, the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission appointed several prominent crypto executives to its new Innovation Advisory Committee, including Brian Armstrong of Coinbase, Brad Garlinghouse of Ripple, Vladimir Tenev of Robinhood, and Hayden Adams of Uniswap Labs.

    The committee will advise on emerging technologies such as blockchain and AI in derivatives and crypto markets, as regulators clarify oversight of digital assets, with the CFTC expected to take a leading role.

    Elsewhere in the market, altcoins also advanced. Ethereum jumped 5.4% to $2,049.07, XRP rose 2.8% to $1.40, Solana surged 8.3%, Cardano gained 4.1%, and Dogecoin added 4.7%.

    Sources: Anuron Mitra

  • Weekly outlook: US Dollar steadies near 96.80 before PCE data and Fed remarks.

    The US Dollar (USD) posted notable weekly losses, briefly rebounding after stronger-than-expected US jobs data showed 130K new positions added in January and the Unemployment Rate dipping to 4.3% from 4.4%. However, softer January CPI figures pressured the currency.

    The US Dollar Index (DXY) slipped to around 96.80 from 97.15 highs as weak inflation data boosted expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut later this year. Attention now turns to Friday’s release of the December Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) report, the Fed’s preferred inflation measure.

    EUR/USD hovers around 1.1880, erasing earlier losses after Eurozone flash Q4 GDP came in at 1.4% YoY, above the 1.3% forecast. Focus next week includes the Eurogroup Meeting and December Industrial Production on Monday, followed by the EcoFin Meeting and February Eurozone and German ZEW Surveys on Tuesday.

    AUD/USD trades near 0.7080, close to a three-year peak, supported by the hawkish stance of the Reserve Bank of Australia. Upcoming data include NAB Business Confidence and the Wage Price Index on Wednesday, then Australian jobs figures and the February flash S&P Global Composite PMI on Thursday.

    USD/CAD sits near 1.3600, recovering nearly half of its weekly losses after US inflation data. Markets will watch Canada’s December Retail Sales on Friday.

    USD/JPY trades around 152.80 following a sharp sell-off triggered by the election victory of Sanae Takaichi, which raised fiscal policy concerns. Japan’s National CPI is due on Thursday.

    GBP/USD holds near 1.3650, with UK Producer Price Index and Retail Price Index data due Wednesday, and Retail Sales scheduled for Friday.

    Gold trades around $5,038, rebounding from Thursday’s drop but still below January’s record high of $5,598, as easing geopolitical tensions push investors toward riskier assets.

    Looking ahead to the economic outlook: Key voices take center stage.

    Saturday, February 14

    • Christine Lagarde (ECB President)

    Sunday, February 15

    • Christine Lagarde (ECB President)

    Monday, February 16

    • Michelle Bowman (Fed)
    • Joachim Nagel (ECB)

    Tuesday, February 17

    • José Luis Escrivá (ECB)
    • Michael Barr (Fed)
    • Mary Daly (Fed)

    Wednesday, February 18

    • Piero Cipollone (ECB)
    • Isabel Schnabel (ECB)
    • Michelle Bowman (Fed)

    Thursday, February 19

    • Piero Cipollone (ECB)
    • Luis de Guindos (ECB)
    • Raphael Bostic (Fed)
    • Michelle Bowman (Fed)
    • Neel Kashkari (Fed)
    • Christian Hawkesby (rbnz official)

    Friday, February 20

    • Christine Lagarde (ECB President)
    • Raphael Bostic (Fed)

    Central bank meetings and upcoming economic data releases are set to guide the next moves in monetary policy.

    Sunday, February 15

    • Japan flash Q4 GDP

    Tuesday, February 17

    • Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Meeting Minutes
    • Germany January Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP)
    • UK January Claimant Count Change
    • UK December Employment Change
    • UK December ILO Unemployment Rate
    • Canada January CPI

    Wednesday, February 18

    • Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) Interest Rate Decision
    • UK January CPI
    • Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Minutes

    Thursday, February 19

    • Australia January Employment Change
    • Australia Unemployment Rate

    Friday, February 20

    • UK January Retail Sales
    • Germany February flash HCOB Composite PMIs
    • Eurozone PMIs
    • UK flash February S&P Global PMIs
    • US December Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE)
    • US February S&P Global PMIs

    Sources: Agustin Wazne

  • Austan Goolsbee said rates may fall if services inflation eases.

    Austan Goolsbee said in a Friday interview with Yahoo Finance that while interest rates are likely to decline further, any additional cuts will depend on continued progress in bringing down services inflation.

    He described the latest CPI report as mixed, with both positive signals and lingering concerns, noting that services inflation remains elevated and above target. Goolsbee expressed hope that the peak effects of tariffs have passed and pointed to strong January employment data as evidence of a broadly stable labor market with only modest cooling. Although he believes rates could be reduced further, he stressed the need for clearer improvement in inflation before accelerating cuts, warning that persistently high services inflation is a risk.

    He added that the U.S. consumer remains the economy’s strongest pillar and should stay resilient if the job market holds steady and inflation eases. If inflation returns to 2%, he said, the Fed would have room to implement several more rate cuts.

    Sources: Joshua Gibson

  • Bitcoin: Regaining This Key Level Is Crucial for a Broader Sentiment Reset

    Bitcoin has fallen roughly 50% from its October 2025 peak near $126,000 and is now trading around $65,000, marking a far deeper retracement than a routine correction. This downturn reflects not just price volatility but a broader shift in the macro backdrop and crypto’s structural dynamics.

    Macro Pressures Reshape the Cycle

    As institutional participation has increased, Bitcoin has become more tightly linked to global financial conditions. Rather than acting as “digital gold,” it has moved in closer correlation with U.S. equities—especially technology stocks. Ongoing uncertainty about the pace of disinflation, combined with renewed tariff measures from the Trump Administration targeting Europe and Asia, has strengthened the U.S. dollar and dampened overall risk appetite. Concerns that the artificial intelligence boom may be maturing have further pressured growth assets, including crypto.

    Miner Stress and Institutional Retreat

    On-chain and industry data reveal mounting supply-side pressure. With the estimated average mining cost around $87,000, many miners are operating below breakeven at current price levels. To stay solvent, some have been liquidating reserves, adding persistent sell-side pressure to the market.

    Institutional flows tell a similar story. Roughly $5 billion has exited Bitcoin ETFs in recent weeks, signaling a rotation into safer assets. Meanwhile, reports of operational pauses at certain established crypto platforms have revived memories of the 2022 bankruptcy wave, further unsettling sentiment.

    The Crypto Fear and Greed Index remains entrenched in the 5–8 range—classified as “extreme fear”—highlighting the depth of caution across the market.

    The Technical Road Ahead

    For sentiment to meaningfully reset, Bitcoin must reclaim the $70,000–$78,000 zone, which now represents a critical resistance band. A sustained move above that range would signal renewed confidence and potentially mark the beginning of a recovery phase. Until then, macro headwinds, miner capitulation risks, and fragile investor psychology are likely to continue defining the tone of this cycle.

    Bitcoin Technical Outlook

    On the daily chart, Bitcoin is attempting to stabilize in a critical technical zone. After sliding to roughly $60,000 last week, price rebounded, but the recovery stalled near $70,000 as sellers re-emerged. Over the past week, Bitcoin has remained below its 8-day EMA, signaling short-term weakness and keeping the broader technical bias cautious.

    The $62,800 area—aligned with the Fibonacci 1.272 extension—now stands out as key support. The earlier bounce from $60,000 suggests buyers are active in this region and view it as a potential base. However, a daily close below that level could accelerate downside pressure, exposing the next major support near $55,000, around the Fibonacci 1.414 extension.

    One constructive signal comes from momentum indicators. On the daily timeframe, the Stochastic RSI is showing positive divergence: while price has continued to drift lower, the indicator has turned upward from oversold territory. This often signals waning downside momentum and can precede sharp countertrend rallies, including short squeezes or bear traps. Still, for a rebound to evolve into a durable recovery, Bitcoin must reclaim key resistance levels and short-term moving averages. Until then, the market remains delicately balanced between support and renewed selling.

    Critical Resistance Levels for a Trend Reversal

    A sustained recovery would first require a decisive break above the psychological $70,000 level, ideally accompanied by strong trading volume. Without volume confirmation, upside moves may lack conviction.

    A more robust trend reversal signal would come from breaking the descending trendline and reclaiming the Fibonacci 1.0 level near $76,350. The broader $76,000–$78,000 band represents a major technical barrier. Unless Bitcoin can firmly establish itself above this zone, rallies are likely to remain corrective within a broader medium-term downtrend.

    Is a Short Squeeze Setup Building?

    Bitcoin futures funding rates are hovering around -0.006%, indicating short positioning dominates. When leverage becomes skewed heavily to one side, sharp counter-moves often follow as liquidity is cleared. Combined with the positive Stochastic RSI divergence, this creates the potential for a swift spike toward $70,000.

    Zooming out, Bitcoin appears to be navigating a capitulation phase marked by ETF outflows, miner pressure, and macro uncertainty. At the same time, some technical signals hint at a cleansing process that could reset positioning.

    A conservative stance would wait for weekly closes above $78,000 before declaring a structural recovery. More tactical traders may view the Stoch RSI divergence as an opportunity for a move toward $70,000, with $62,800 serving as a clear risk threshold.

    As the crypto sector enters what looks like a period of corporate restructuring in early 2026, the $55,000 region could eventually be seen as a longer-term base—if stabilization holds. Until stronger confirmation emerges, disciplined risk management remains critical: reduced leverage, smaller position sizing, and strict stop-loss levels are essential in this highly volatile environment.

    Sources: Günay Caymaz

  • Why the January 2026 CPI Paints a Distorted Picture: How the Government Shutdown Skewed the Data

    A few months ago, a government shutdown led to a missed CPI release because the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) lacked sufficient data to calculate the October 2025 figure. The bigger issue, however, was methodological: when compiling the November index, the BLS was effectively required to assume that prices in several major categories—especially rents—were unchanged in October. This created an artificial drop in year-over-year inflation.

    While some of that distortion has already begun to reverse, a more significant rebound is expected in a few months when the Owners’ Equivalent Rent (OER) survey rotation triggers a sharp offsetting increase—precisely six months after the initial dip. Until that adjustment plays out, inflation data will remain hard to interpret, and the annual comparisons will understate true price pressures. So claims that the latest report shows the smallest yearly increase in core inflation since 2021, suggesting the Federal Reserve is near its target, are misleading.

    In reality, core year-over-year inflation is roughly 0.25%–0.3% higher than reported. Markets for CPI fixings already anticipate headline inflation rising to about 2.82% in four months—not because of energy prices, but due to this statistical catch-up.

    January is typically a challenging month for inflation data anyway, as businesses often offer discounts in December before implementing annual price hikes in January. Because these adjustments are irregular, they are difficult to seasonally adjust, making January surprises common. This time, consensus forecasts called for a 0.27% month-over-month rise in headline CPI and 0.31% in core, with some estimates—such as from Barclays—as high as 0.39% for core. Much of the speculation centered on whether remaining tariff-related price increases would be passed through at the start of the year. Ultimately, they were not. The actual figures came in at +0.17% for headline and +0.30% for core.

    The weaker headline reading was largely due to gasoline pricing dynamics. Although gas prices increased over the course of January, the monthly average was still lower than December’s average, because prices had fallen sharply in December. Since the BLS calculates CPI based on average monthly prices rather than end-of-month levels, this produced a softer headline figure.

    Core inflation, meanwhile, appeared close to target at first glance: the 2.5% year-over-year rate is the lowest since March 2021. Yet the 0.30% monthly increase was the third-highest in the past year and translates to an annualized pace of 3.6%. That hardly signals a smooth return to 2% inflation—raising questions about whether it is truly “mission accomplished” for the Fed.

    Core inflation was also somewhat flattered by a sharp 1.84% month-over-month decline in used car prices. In reality, used car prices did rise in January, but by less than the typical seasonal pattern, which translated into a sizable seasonally adjusted drop and created a noticeable drag on the core figure. (That said, it’s important not to dismiss components simply because they don’t align with the broader narrative.) Overall, core goods inflation slowed to 1.1% year over year from 1.4%, while core services edged down to 2.9% from 3.0%.

    Although core goods inflation declined more than expected due to the sharp move in used cars, some moderation isn’t surprising. The real issue isn’t whether core goods will reaccelerate to 3–4%, but whether it remains in positive territory or slips back into the persistent deflation that characterized the sector for many years. That distinction matters, even if core goods make up only about 20% of the CPI basket. Until recently, the narrative centered on tariffs; going forward, it may shift toward onshoring. The decades-long trend of goods deflation—driven by offshoring production to low-wage countries—may not reassert itself if manufacturing activity continues to migrate back. That’s the broader theme to monitor, though it’s not the main takeaway from January 2026’s data.

    On autos specifically, new car prices posted a modest increase. It’s worth considering how changes in sales composition might evolve now that electric vehicles are no longer being actively promoted by the executive branch. Traditional gasoline-powered cars tend to be cheaper upfront, so if buyers shift back toward them—absent tax incentives for EVs—the average transaction price could decline. However, it’s unclear how significantly overall sales patterns will change, or how production strategies will adjust now that automakers may feel less pressure to meet EV quotas. It’s also uncertain how granular the Bureau of Labor Statistics survey is in accounting for shifts in fleet composition. If there is any measurable impact on CPI, it would likely be slightly negative—and probably modest in size.

    As for rents, Owners’ Equivalent Rent (OER) rose 0.22% month over month, down from 0.31% previously, while Rent of Primary Residence increased 0.25%, slightly below last month’s 0.27%. The month-to-month trend in OER shows a clear deceleration—though notably, it omits the artificial zero recorded in October due to the earlier data disruption.

    While the slowdown is evident, my model suggests the pace should now be stabilizing around this level rather than continuing to decline sharply. In other words, rents are cooling, but likely nearing a plateau. That isn’t the defining story of January 2026—but it may well become one of the central inflation themes for the rest of 2026.

    Medicinal drug prices slipped 0.15% month over month. Some observers had anticipated a much larger decline, partly due to efforts by the Trump Administration to push manufacturers to align U.S. drug prices more closely with those abroad. So far, however, no clear downward trend is evident. A potentially more consequential development is the Trump RX initiative, aimed at increasing pricing transparency and reducing the role of intermediaries in the highly opaque pharmaceutical distribution chain—long dominated by three major wholesalers and three large pharmacy benefit managers.

    If successful, it could meaningfully reduce out-of-pocket drug costs for consumers. That said, when medications are paid for by insurers rather than directly by households, the impact does not show up straightforwardly in the CPI, appearing only indirectly—an accounting nuance that complicates interpretation. In short, consumer drug prices may decline, but the timing and visibility of that effect in CPI data remain uncertain.

    The most encouraging element of the report was the continued slowdown in core services excluding rents—often referred to as “supercore” inflation—which eased further even as airfares jumped 6.5% on the month.

    Gotcha. The apparent improvement in “supercore” inflation is another illusion created by the missing October data, which flatters the year-over-year comparison. On a month-over-month basis, core services ex-rents actually surged 0.59% (seasonally adjusted)—the largest increase in a year.

    Even so, the broader trend may still be one of gradual cooling, particularly as median wage growth continues to decelerate. Admittedly, that data is also somewhat noisy at the moment. Still, the gap between median wage growth and median inflation remains around 1%, suggesting real income growth is positive, even if inflation progress is bumpier than headline figures imply.

    There are tentative signs that wage growth’s downward drift may be stabilizing. If so, that would naturally limit how quickly supercore inflation can cool. At the same time, brewing cost pressures in insurance markets are likely to surface over the next six months. Still, none of that defines January 2026.

    The real story this month is that inflation data remain clouded by the government-shutdown gap. The missing October observations continue to flatter year-over-year comparisons, overstating the degree of progress. That statistical quirk makes it easier for the Administration to claim victory, even though underlying inflation does not appear to be cleanly converging back to target.

    Assuming the Federal Reserve recognizes these distortions, the policy outlook seems relatively straightforward. Core inflation—abstracting from the shutdown gap—appears to be running near 3.5%, labor market data have surprised to the upside, and the current Fed leadership has shown little inclination to accommodate political pressure. Under those conditions, there is scant reason to expect a near-term adjustment in overnight rates; if anything, the argument for tightening may be stronger than for easing.

    To be fair, rents continue to decelerate even after adjusting for the October distortion, though my model suggests that slowdown is unlikely to persist much further. Even if it does, a return to outright housing deflation seems improbable. Moderation in supercore inflation is encouraging, but probably insufficient to deliver the degree of cooling the Fed would require. Core goods inflation also looks to have peaked; the open question is whether it settles into low positive territory or slips back into deflation.

    Taken together, my modeling suggests that median inflation around 3.5% (excluding the shutdown effect) may represent something close to a new equilibrium. It’s not unreasonable to see constructive signals in the recent data, but neither do they justify expectations of imminent easing. If disinflation trends persist and leadership dynamics shift—potentially with someone like Kevin Warsh assuming the chair—the door to rate cuts later in the year could open.

    But that is not January 2026’s story.

    Sources: Michael Ashton

  • Silver’s Recent Plunge Mirrors the Post-1980 Bubble Collapse

    After surging in a classic speculative frenzy, silver went parabolic before collapsing in dramatic fashion. In recent weeks it has suffered some of its largest daily losses on record, echoing past episodes when extreme tops unraveled into violent crashes. Historically, such vertical “moonshots” have been followed by swift, symmetrical selloffs that wipe out a large share of prior gains—suggesting the current downturn may not yet be finished.

    Silver has long attracted an intensely bullish following, especially during explosive rallies. But like all markets, its powerful upside extremes inevitably give way to sharp reversals. In mid-January, warnings emerged that silver had reached dangerously overbought levels not seen since the aftermath of the early 1980 bubble. Back then, prices plunged more than 75% within months and failed to sustainably exceed that peak for decades—underscoring the risks of vertical blow-offs.

    From late October to late January, silver soared an extraordinary 149% in just over three months, logging numerous record closes. By some technical measures—such as its distance above the 200-day moving average—it reached historically rare territory, ranking among the most overbought readings in more than half a century. Comparable extremes were last seen in January 1980, during the infamous silver bubble.

    Although silver often magnifies gold’s moves and has delivered strong long-term gains since the modern precious metals era began in 1971, its volatility cuts both ways. The same momentum and herd enthusiasm that fuel breathtaking advances tend to necessitate equally forceful corrections. This latest crash, following a surge to bubble-like extremes, has once again demonstrated just how unforgiving those reversals can be.

    On January 30, silver plunged an extraordinary 27.5% in a single session—qualifying as a true crash by stock-market standards and marking its second-worst daily drop since 1971, just behind a 30.8% collapse in March 1980. The trigger was a sharp 10.3% fall in gold, driven largely by heavy Chinese selling, with silver amplifying that move roughly 2.7 times—consistent with its historical tendency to magnify gold’s swings. More steep losses followed, including another 16% plunge, creating a rare cluster of crash-grade declines reminiscent of the aftermath of the 1980 bubble.

    While today’s rally into January 2026 was extreme—silver soared 149% in just over three months and reached one of the most overbought readings in more than five decades—it still fell short of the blow-off top seen in 1980. Back then, silver ultimately cratered nearly 77% in just over two months. Although a repeat of that magnitude appears unlikely, the recent 36.9% drop in only six trading days may not be sufficient to fully unwind the speculative excess. Simply returning to pre-mania levels would require far deeper losses.

    Historical precedent suggests silver’s largest crash days rarely mark final bottoms. Except for a brief climax in March 1980, most 10%+ down days since 1971 have occurred early or mid-way through major selloffs, not at their end. Episodes in 2006, 2008, 2011, 2013, and 2020 all saw further grinding declines after dramatic crash sessions. Sharp bounces often follow panic selling, but sustained weakness is typically needed to shift herd psychology from greed to fear.

    In speculative manias, fundamentals play little role in driving parabolic advances or subsequent collapses. Supply and demand rarely change fast enough to justify such extremes; sentiment and momentum dominate. Arguments about structural demand—such as AI-related usage—cannot rationalize silver doubling in a few months. That surge was largely fueled by speculative fervor, especially heavy Chinese buying, which has now reversed.

    The broader lesson is that silver’s recent crash likely marks the early stages of a deeper rebalancing rather than its conclusion. After reaching near half-century overbought extremes, a proportionally large and sustained correction may be required to normalize sentiment. Historically, silver has tended to grind considerably lower after initial crash days, suggesting this reckoning may still have further to run.

    Sources: Adam Hamilton

  • Bitcoin Open Interest Reaches $34B as Dollar Weakness Hides Steady Leverage Demand

    Total Bitcoin futures open interest has fallen to $34 billion as of Thursday, marking a 28% drop over the past month. However, this decline appears largely driven by price effects rather than a reduction in leverage. When measured in Bitcoin terms, open interest remains broadly unchanged at 502,450 BTC, indicating that underlying demand for leveraged exposure is still intact.

    Over the past two weeks, forced liquidations have reached $5.2 billion, contributing significantly to the contraction in nominal dollar terms. Meanwhile, options markets show a 22% bearish skew, and funding rates continue to stay below the 12% threshold, suggesting that sentiment remains cautious but not excessively overheated.

    Bitcoin Diverges from Traditional Markets

    Bitcoin has declined 28% over the past month, even as gold surged back above the $5,000 psychological threshold and the S&P 500 remains just 1% shy of its record high. This growing divergence has prompted investors to question what is driving crypto’s relative weakness. One possible explanation lies in softer US labor data, with the economy adding only 181,000 jobs in 2025—falling short of expectations.

    In derivatives markets, sentiment remains cautious. The annualized funding rate on Bitcoin futures has stayed below the neutral 12% benchmark for four straight months, reflecting persistent risk aversion. Options markets show even stronger defensive positioning, as the delta skew on Deribit climbed to 22%. This suggests traders are paying a notable premium for protective put options. Under typical conditions, the skew fluctuates between -6% and +6%, signaling more balanced sentiment.

    Despite the bearish tone in derivatives, institutional participation appears steady. US-listed Bitcoin ETFs are recording average daily trading volumes of $5.4 billion, challenging narratives of fading institutional interest. Ultimately, Bitcoin’s near-term rebound may hinge on clearer signals about the direction of the US labor market and broader macroeconomic stability.

    Sources: Isai Alexei

  • Stronger Dollar Caps Gold’s Rally Near $5,000 Ahead of CPI Report

    Gold drew renewed buying interest after sliding to a weekly low in the previous session. Expectations that the Federal Reserve may adopt a more dovish stance continue to weigh on the US Dollar, offering support to the precious metal. Market participants are now awaiting the latest US consumer inflation data for fresh direction.

    Gold (XAU/USD) has pulled back from near the $5,000 psychological level but maintains modest intraday gains heading into Friday’s European trading session. Investors are focused on the upcoming US CPI release, which is expected to provide clearer signals on the Fed’s future policy path. The outcome will likely influence short-term US Dollar dynamics and generate meaningful momentum for the non-yielding metal.

    Earlier in the week, a stronger-than-expected US Nonfarm Payrolls report prompted traders to trim expectations for a March rate cut, helping the US Dollar Index (DXY) rebound from a two-week low and contributing to Gold’s pullback. Even so, markets continue to anticipate that the Fed could still deliver two rate cuts in 2026. Meanwhile, softer US Jobless Claims data has limited the Dollar’s upside.

    According to the US Department of Labor, initial jobless claims declined to 227K for the week ending February 7, above the 222K forecast but below the previous week’s revised 232K. Continuing Claims rose to 1.862 million for the week ending January 31, underscoring ongoing labor market softness seen over the past year. This underlying weakness provides support for Gold while tempering the Dollar’s strength.

    Additionally, a deterioration in global risk sentiment, reflected in broadly weaker equity markets, has boosted demand for safe-haven assets like Gold. However, it remains uncertain whether XAU/USD can extend its gains, as traders may prefer to stay cautious until the key US CPI report is released before initiating fresh positions.

    XAU/USD 1-hour chart

    Gold’s Mixed Technical Signals Call for Caution

    Gold’s technical picture remains conflicted, suggesting aggressive traders should proceed carefully. The overnight break below the weekly trading range initially appeared to give bears the upper hand. However, the absence of sustained follow-through selling and the metal’s resilience beneath the $4,900 level argue against firmly committing to a bearish outlook.

    On the momentum front, the MACD has crossed above its Signal line near the zero mark, with the histogram turning positive—an indication that bullish momentum may be gradually building. This shift hints at a possible near-term recovery in price action.

    At the same time, the RSI has rebounded from oversold territory and currently sits at 44.72, a neutral reading. While this supports a tentative intraday bounce, the RSI remaining below the 50 threshold suggests that upside attempts could face resistance.

    Should the MACD slip back below the Signal line and fall under zero, bearish pressure would likely re-emerge, potentially extending the current consolidation phase. For now, momentum leans modestly supportive as long as the MACD holds above zero and the positive histogram continues to expand. Conversely, a narrowing histogram would signal waning momentum and caution against overconfidence in further gains.

    Sources: Haresh Menghani

  • MUFG: U.S. Inflation Data to Steer Rate Repricing

    MUFG Senior Currency Analyst Lloyd Chan observes that the US dollar remained resilient after stronger-than-expected nonfarm payrolls, though it struggled to build lasting upward momentum as markets question how much further interest rates can shift in a hawkish direction. He points to the January US CPI release as the next major catalyst, noting that only an upside inflation surprise is likely to spark renewed hawkish repricing and support further dollar strength.

    CPI surprise seen as key for further gains

    Chan explains that while solid payroll data has eased immediate concerns about a sharp slowdown in the labour market, it has not significantly altered the broader macroeconomic outlook. The dollar held steady in the aftermath of the jobs report but failed to generate sustained gains, highlighting investor skepticism over the scope for additional hawkish rate adjustments.

    Attention now turns firmly to the upcoming US CPI data, expected to be the primary driver for both rates and currency markets. MUFG’s US strategist forecasts January core CPI to rise 0.25% month-on-month and 2.6% year-on-year, with base effects boosting the annual figure. In contrast, Bloomberg consensus anticipates 2.5% year-on-year for both headline and core inflation.

    From a market standpoint, inflation would likely need to exceed expectations to prompt a fresh hawkish repricing of the Federal Reserve’s rate trajectory. If the data meets or falls short of forecasts, markets are likely to stick with expectations of roughly two rate cuts this year, limiting further upside for the dollar.

    Sources: Fxstreet

  • Yen Regains Strength: Implications for Forex Traders and Investors

    Understanding the Yen’s Recent Climb

    If you’ve been tracking currency markets, you’ve likely seen the Japanese yen advance for three straight sessions, trading near the 153 JPY/USD level. This move isn’t random—it reflects deeper shifts in forex positioning and strategic reallocations by Japanese investment funds.

    Despite stronger-than-expected U.S. employment data, the yen has gained ground. The key driver appears to be a rotation in positioning: Japanese hedge funds and institutional investors have closed out prior bearish bets on the yen and are now positioning for further appreciation. This shift highlights a broader change in sentiment and confidence within the currency market.

    What’s Fueling the Move?

    The primary catalyst is renewed buying interest from Japanese funds. After unwinding short-yen trades, they are now building long positions, anticipating continued strength. Market perceptions of the Japanese government and the Bank of Japan’s commitment to currency stability are also contributing to this shift.

    While U.S. macroeconomic indicators—such as payroll data—often dominate headlines, this episode shows that capital flows and institutional positioning can at times outweigh even strong economic releases.

    Authorities Remain Vigilant

    Japan’s top foreign exchange official, Junichi Mimura, has emphasized that authorities are closely monitoring currency developments and maintaining active communication with U.S. counterparts. This ongoing dialogue signals a commitment to orderly market conditions.

    For traders and investors, this reinforces an important point: currency movements are shaped not only by data, but also by policy signals, market psychology, and cross-border coordination.

    Sentiment and USD/JPY Positioning

    Recent trends indicate softer demand for USD/JPY hedging, suggesting rising confidence in the yen’s near-term outlook. Shifts in options activity often provide insight into market expectations and potential support or resistance zones.

    Whether you’re a short-term trader or a longer-term investor, staying attuned to these sentiment indicators can help refine entry points and risk management strategies.

    How to Navigate Yen Volatility

    • Monitor official communication: Watch statements from Japanese policymakers and central bank officials.
    • Apply technical analysis: Pay attention to key levels around 153 JPY/USD for potential breakout or reversal signals.
    • Control risk exposure: Use stop-loss strategies to guard against sharp counter-moves.
    • Diversify allocations: Avoid overexposure to a single currency pair by balancing across assets.

    Why It Matters

    The yen’s recent strength reflects more than price action—it represents shifting expectations, institutional flows, and evolving policy narratives. Understanding these dynamics can sharpen your broader market perspective and improve decision-making.

    In forex, staying informed is a competitive advantage. By tracking positioning trends, official commentary, and sentiment signals, you can better anticipate market turns and respond with confidence.

    Sources: Benjamin

  • Oil prices remain under pressure amid supply glut outlook; U.S. CPI data in focus.

    Oil prices were mostly stable in Asian trading on Friday but remained on course for a weekly loss after plunging nearly 3% in the prior session, as expectations of a substantial supply surplus and rising inventories pressured sentiment. By 21:07 ET (02:07 GMT), Brent crude for April delivery was up 0.1% at $67.56 a barrel, while WTI crude also edged 0.1% higher to $62.87. Both benchmarks had dropped close to 3% previously, leaving them down about 1% for the week.

    IEA projects oil supply surplus and weaker demand growth outlook.

    The International Energy Agency, in its latest monthly report, projected that the global oil market could see a surplus exceeding 3.7 million barrels per day in 2026, pointing to a pronounced supply overhang.

    It also noted that global stockpiles grew last year at one of the fastest paces since the pandemic, reflecting comfortable supply levels. The agency lowered its forecast for global demand growth, citing a softer economic outlook and moderating consumption, even as non-OPEC production stays strong. This combination of weaker demand and resilient output has intensified concerns about prolonged oversupply.

    In the U.S., the Energy Information Administration reported an 8.53 million-barrel increase in crude inventories this week—well above expectations and the largest build since January 2025—indicating sluggish refinery demand and abundant supply.

    U.S.- Iran nuclear talks under scrutiny; U.S. CPI data awaited.

    Meanwhile, investors monitored geopolitical developments after Donald Trump said negotiations over a potential U.S.-Iran nuclear deal could last up to a month.

    The possibility of extended talks eased immediate fears of supply disruptions in the Middle East, reducing the geopolitical premium that had previously supported prices. Attention is also turning to U.S. CPI data due later Friday, which may provide further insight into the Federal Reserve’s rate outlook after strong January employment figures dampened hopes for near-term rate cuts.

    Sources:

  • U.S. futures wavered after a tech-driven Wall Street slump, with focus on CPI data.

    U.S. stock index futures edged down Thursday night after a sharp selloff in technology shares triggered heavy losses on Wall Street, with investors now awaiting key inflation data for further direction.

    Wall Street declines as tech losses deepen; Cisco plunges.

    Tech stocks slid as markets worried about fresh disruptions linked to artificial intelligence, while disappointing earnings from Cisco added to the pressure. Lingering uncertainty around U.S. rate cuts—particularly after this week’s strong nonfarm payrolls report—kept buyers cautious and prompted some profit-taking. By 19:57 ET, S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures were each down 0.1%, while Dow futures were slightly lower.

    On Thursday, major indexes fell steeply, led by renewed weakness in technology amid concerns over AI-driven disruption. Logistics and transportation stocks were also hit following reports that a new tool from Algorhythm Holdings could significantly streamline freight operations, potentially dampening demand across the sector.

    The news sent trucking and logistics shares sharply lower, while Algorhythm surged nearly 30%. Meanwhile, Cisco Systems dropped 12% after posting weaker-than-expected results, dragging other major tech names lower, with the “Magnificent Seven” declining between 0.6% and 3%. The S&P 500 lost 1.6%, the Nasdaq Composite fell 2%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 1.3%.

    Investors await CPI report as interest rate uncertainty intensifies.

    Attention now turns to January’s consumer price index data due Friday, which is expected to show a modest cooling in both headline and core inflation.

    However, CPI has exceeded expectations in January for the past four years, keeping markets wary of an upside surprise. Stronger-than-expected jobs data earlier this week reinforced views of a tight labor market, reducing the Federal Reserve’s urgency to cut rates. Persistent inflation could further dampen sentiment, with CME FedWatch indicating markets see a high likelihood that rates will remain unchanged in March and April.

    Sources: Ambar Warrick

  • Asian currencies edged lower as the U.S. dollar held firm ahead of the upcoming nonfarm payrolls report.

    Most Asian currencies edged lower on Friday, while the U.S. dollar held steady as investors assessed the interest rate outlook ahead of closely watched U.S. inflation data due later in the session. Despite the day’s softness, many regional currencies were still on track for weekly gains, whereas the dollar continued to reflect broader weekly losses amid uncertainty surrounding U.S. monetary policy.

    Japanese yen outperforms on intervention speculation

    The Japanese yen emerged as one of the strongest Asian performers this week, supported by rising speculation of potential government intervention in currency markets, which helped investors look beyond concerns about Japan’s fiscal position. The USD/JPY pair ticked up 0.2% on Friday but remained down roughly 2.6% for the week—its strongest weekly showing since November 2024.

    The yen’s rally followed a series of hawkish remarks from Japanese officials signaling readiness to intervene, easing worries over elevated fiscal spending under Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi.

    Elsewhere, the Australian dollar also posted solid gains, with AUD/USD climbing 1% for the week to a three-year high after hawkish commentary from the Reserve Bank of Australia.

    The South Korean won strengthened as well, with USD/KRW down 1.4% on the week, aided by renewed foreign inflows into domestic equities, particularly chipmakers tied to artificial intelligence themes.

    China’s yuan saw USD/CNY edge up slightly on Friday but remain 0.4% lower for the week, supported by a series of firm daily midpoint settings from the People’s Bank of China. The currency hovered near a nearly three-year peak reached earlier in the week.

    Meanwhile, the Indian rupee was little changed for the week, and the Singapore dollar gained 0.6% against the greenback.

    Dollar steady before CPI, but weekly loss likely

    The dollar index and its futures posted modest gains during Asian hours Friday, with attention fixed on January’s consumer price index report. Although expectations point to a slight cooling in both headline and core inflation, traders remained cautious about potential upside surprises, especially as January CPI has exceeded forecasts in each of the past four years.

    The greenback drew some support earlier in the week from stronger-than-expected nonfarm payrolls data, yet it was still down about 0.7% on a weekly basis. Ongoing uncertainty over U.S. monetary policy—particularly following Kevin Warsh’s nomination as the next Federal Reserve Chair—continued to weigh on the currency.

    Sources: Ambar Warrick

  • Gold steadied below $5,000/oz as rate uncertainty lingered, with CPI data in focus.

    Gold held steady in early Asian trading on Friday after slipping below key technical levels amid growing uncertainty about the outlook for U.S. interest rates, with investors now awaiting upcoming inflation data for clearer direction.

    Silver also stabilized after shedding roughly 10% in the previous session, though metals remained vulnerable following a sharp selloff earlier in the month.

    Persistent doubts about the timing of future U.S. rate cuts continued to pressure precious metals, particularly after January data signaled resilience in the labor market. The U.S. dollar rebounded from weekly lows following Wednesday’s stronger-than-expected nonfarm payrolls report.

    Spot gold edged down 0.1% to $4,915.40 an ounce by 18:31 ET (23:31 GMT), while April gold futures slipped 0.1% to $4,937.60 per ounce. In the prior session, spot prices had dropped more than 3%.

    Spot silver was little changed at $75.060 per ounce, while platinum recovered to trade back above $2,000 per ounce after steep losses a day earlier.

    Thursday’s decline effectively wiped out most of this week’s gains for gold and other precious metals, putting the yellow metal on track for a third consecutive weekly loss.

    Markets have struggled to find direction since a late-January flash crash, with interest rate uncertainty remaining a central headwind. Gold’s retreat from recent record highs was initially sparked by U.S. President Donald Trump’s nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve Chair, a choice seen as less dovish.

    The robust January jobs report reinforced expectations of fewer rate cuts ahead, while sharp price volatility has also weakened metals’ appeal as safe-haven assets.

    Attention now turns to the January U.S. consumer price index data due later Friday, which could offer further insight into the trajectory of the world’s largest economy. Inflation and labor market conditions remain the Federal Reserve’s primary factors in setting monetary policy.

    Sources: Ambar Warrick

  • Asia stocks dip after Wall Street tech selloff, but still eye solid weekly gains.

    Asian equities retreated on Friday, following a decline in U.S. technology stocks overnight as fresh concerns about stretched artificial intelligence valuations weighed on investor sentiment. Despite the pullback, regional markets remained on track for solid weekly gains after a strong rally earlier in the week fueled by AI enthusiasm and upbeat corporate earnings.

    On Nasdaq Composite, shares fell as investors reassessed elevated AI-related valuations, pressuring semiconductor and growth stocks across Asia. Meanwhile, U.S. stock index futures were mostly flat by late evening trading (22:04 ET / 03:04 GMT).

    KOSPI climbed to a new all-time high and is on track to post a weekly gain of about 9%.

    In South Korea, the KOSPI rose 0.5% to a fresh record of 5,558.82, bucking the broader regional weakness and heading for an impressive weekly gain of nearly 9%, driven by major chipmakers. Samsung Electronics climbed almost 15% this week on optimism surrounding its HBM4 high-bandwidth memory rollout and expanding edge AI prospects, while SK Hynix was poised for a roughly 6% weekly advance.

    Japan’s Nikkei 225 slipped 0.7% after reaching record highs above 58,000 in the prior session but remained on course for a weekly rise of about 6%, supported by renewed trade optimism following the election victory of Sanae Takaichi. The broader TOPIX fell 1% on Friday, though it was still set for a weekly gain of around 4%.

    Australian shares were poised for a weekly advance, supported by strong earnings from major banks.

    Elsewhere, Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 dropped 1.3% on the day but remained on track for a 3% weekly increase, supported by strong bank earnings. Singapore’s Straits Times Index fell 1%, while futures linked to India’s Nifty 50 were little changed.

    Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index declined 2% on Friday and was poised to finish the week flat, diverging from the broader regional trend. In mainland China, the CSI 300 slipped 0.5% and the Shanghai Composite fell 0.7%, though both were still set for modest weekly gains of around 1%.

    Investors were also looking ahead to upcoming U.S. consumer price index data for further guidance on the Federal Reserve’s rate outlook, after stronger-than-expected U.S. employment figures earlier in the week reduced expectations for near-term interest rate cuts.

    Sources: Ayushman Ojha

  • S&P 500: Technical Pressures Mount Behind a Composed Surface

    The S&P 500 climbed early in the session, gaining roughly 50–60 basis points at its intraday peak, but those advances faded as the volatility crush quickly ran out of steam. As mentioned previously, the 1-day VIX had closed at 13.6—levels that typically coincide with 50–60 basis-point moves when volatility compresses. However, the 1-day VIX opened near 9, steadily increased during the session, and finished around 12, making the volatility unwind even more short-lived than anticipated.

    More notably, subtle signs of stress are emerging beneath the surface. The VVIX—which tracks implied volatility of the VIX itself—moved higher, and the S&P 500 left-tail index also rose. While the index may appear calm on the surface, these indicators suggest that underlying volatility is building and becoming harder to ignore.

    Single-stock volatility, reflected by VIXEQ, remains unusually elevated compared with the headline VIX, which measures index-level volatility. The spread between the two sits near 21.5. Historically, when this gap widens to such levels, it has often preceded meaningful market pullbacks.

    Although the surface looks stable, significant shifts are occurring underneath, serving as a cautionary signal. As earnings season progresses, implied volatility for individual stocks should continue to ease, as is typical. If that happens, the spread is likely to compress. That normalization process may require the unwinding of positioning, which could trigger a sharp downside move. This risk has been a recurring theme in prior commentary.

    Meanwhile, several sectors appear technically stretched. The Materials ETF (XLB) now shows a weekly RSI of 77 and is trading above its upper weekly Bollinger Band—classic overbought signals that suggest near-term vulnerability.

    The Industrials ETF (XLI) is even more extended, trading above its upper monthly Bollinger Band with an RSI of 78.3. Historically, similar conditions—in 2007, 2013–2014, and 2018—have led to prolonged consolidation phases. When monthly momentum reaches these extremes, sustaining further upside typically becomes difficult without first easing overbought pressures.

    The complication is that Industrials, Materials, Staples (XLP), and Energy (XLE) have been key drivers of the equal-weight S&P 500 (RSP) outperforming the cap-weighted index. This rotation helps explain why the headline S&P 500 often appears relatively steady: leadership shifts from one group to another, offsetting weakness elsewhere. The large-cap “Mag 7” stocks alone are no longer carrying the market.

    One possible factor behind this dynamic is the growing influence of zero-DTE options and heavy trading in short-dated contracts. While definitive proof is lacking, the pattern suggests dealer hedging flows may be shaping price action around heavily concentrated strike levels.

    For instance, if substantial open interest exists at a strike like 6,950, positioning could effectively pin the index near that level. As a result, underlying sector rotation may occur to keep the index aligned with options pricing. This could drive increased dispersion beneath the surface, with individual sectors making larger moves even as the broader index appears relatively unchanged.

    Sources: Michael Kramer

  • GBP/USD Elliott Wave: The Cables Are Crossing Signals

    Executive Summary

    GBP/USD is hovering around the critical 1.3508 level, where competing Elliott Wave counts are in play. The bullish scenario remains intact above 1.3508, while a sustained move below this level would strengthen the bearish case. A significant directional move is expected once one count clearly takes control.

    On January 14, when GBP/USD was trading at 1.3428, we projected a modest pullback followed by a rally to kick off wave (iii). Price action has largely followed that script, although the drop from January 27 to February 6 was deeper than expected. This larger-than-anticipated decline opens the door to a possible revision in our wave interpretation.

    GBP/USD Elliott Wave Analysis

    We have been accurately tracking the broader GBP/USD structure, anticipating further upside. However, the sharper decline between January 27 and February 6 raises concerns that an alternative pattern may be unfolding. While no Elliott Wave rules have been violated, the structure now warrants closer scrutiny.

    Bullish Scenario

    The primary bullish view assumes wave (ii) завершed at 1.3339, near the upper boundary of our projected 1.3125–1.3333 reversal zone. Under this interpretation, wave ‘i’ of (iii) advanced to 1.3869 on January 27, and the subsequent decline into February 6 represents wave ‘ii’ of (iii).

    The complication lies in the size of this wave ‘ii’ pullback. At 360 pips, it is considerably larger than its higher-degree counterpart wave (ii), which measured only 147 pips. While this does not breach any Elliott Wave rules, it is unusual for a lower-degree correction to significantly exceed the size of its higher-degree equivalent.

    Typically, subwaves within an extended wave maintain proportions comparable to higher-degree waves. With this second wave nearly double the size, we must stay alert for an alternative count if GBP/USD continues to weaken.

    For the bullish case to remain valid, Cable needs to rebound swiftly and push above 1.39. A retest of the February 6 low at 1.3508 would serve as an early warning that the bullish interpretation may be losing credibility.

    Bearish Alternative Scenario

    Should GBP/USD break decisively below 1.3508, the bearish alternative would gain traction.

    Under this view, wave ‘2’ did not finish at the November low and remains in progress. The January 27 peak would represent wave ((b)) of 2, and the decline since then marks the early stages of wave ((c)) of 2. If this scenario unfolds, the pair could revisit the November support level near 1.3010.

    Bottom Line

    GBP/USD stands at a pivotal juncture, with both bullish and bearish Elliott Wave scenarios in contention. While the primary outlook favors a strong upward move, a continued slide toward 1.35 would shift focus toward the bearish alternative.

    Sources: Zorrays Junaid

  • BTC/USD Forex Signal: Bitcoin Faces Downside Risk as Open Interest Declines

    Here is a clearer and more professional version:

    Bearish Scenario

    • Sell BTC/USD with a take-profit target at 60,000.
    • Set a stop-loss at 71,000.
    • Time horizon: 1–2 days.

    Bullish Scenario

    • Buy BTC/USD with a take-profit target at 71,000.
    • Set a stop-loss at 60,000.

    Bitcoin remained under pressure on Thursday as investors stayed cautious and its divergence from the rallying stock market widened. The BTC/USD pair slipped below 68,000, a sharp decline from its year-to-date peak of 126,300.

    The pullback came even as US equities extended their strong advance, with the Dow Jones reaching a record high. The decline followed the release of solid US labor market data. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the economy added more than 130,000 jobs, while the unemployment rate eased to 4.3%. However, some analysts cautioned that the figures could be revised lower, as has happened previously.

    Indeed, revisions to last year’s employment data revealed that job growth averaged 15,000 per month, significantly below the initially reported 49,000 average.

    Bitcoin also weakened amid a continued drop in futures open interest, which has fallen to $45 billion from last year’s peak of over $95 billion—an indication that market participation and demand have cooled.

    Additional pressure followed warnings from the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) about the US government’s unsustainable fiscal trajectory. The deficit is projected to rise by $4.7 trillion over the next decade. Increased immigration-related spending, estimated at more than $500 billion, is cited as one contributing factor, while Trump’s tariffs are expected to generate approximately $3 trillion in revenue.

    BTC/USD Technical Analysis

    On the daily chart, BTC/USD remains in a pronounced downtrend, sliding from its October high of 126,300 to around 67,665. The decline persists despite continued accumulation by large holders.

    Technically, Bitcoin is trading below both the 50-day and 100-day Exponential Moving Averages, as well as the Supertrend indicator, reinforcing the bearish bias. The MACD has crossed below the zero line, while the Relative Strength Index hovers near 30, suggesting weak momentum and near-oversold conditions.

    The most probable scenario is a continued decline toward the key support level at 60,000. Conversely, a break above the major resistance at 72,000 would negate the bearish outlook and signal the potential for renewed upside momentum.

    Sources: Crispus Nyaga

  • US: NFP rebound reinforces expectations of a gradual recovery – Standard Chartered

    Standard Chartered analysts Steve Englander and Dan Pan note that the latest US Nonfarm Payrolls report delivered a stronger-than-expected rebound in hiring, with job growth accelerating and the unemployment rate declining.

    Although substantial downward benchmark revisions were made to prior data, they believe the latest figures signal a gradual labour-market recovery extending into 2025 and 2026.

    NFP strength suggests continued stabilization

    The January employment report surprised to the upside, exceeding nearly all forecasts and indicating renewed momentum in the labour market.

    Faster job creation, a lower unemployment rate, and a rise in the employment-to-population ratio all point to improving labour conditions toward late 2025 and into 2026, despite significant downward revisions to historical data.

    While health care and social assistance remained the primary contributors to job growth, other sectors are beginning to show early signs of recovery.

    That said, uncertainties remain regarding the durability of this improvement. The analysts caution that one month of stronger data is not enough to eliminate broader labour-market concerns, particularly amid weak sentiment indicators and potential disruptions related to artificial intelligence.

    Sources: Fxstreet

  • Forex Today: Strong US employment figures help the USD regain stability

    The US Dollar (USD) remains firm against major peers in the latter part of the week, supported by stronger-than-expected January labor market data. On Thursday, market participants will focus on weekly Initial Jobless Claims and January Existing Home Sales figures from the US economic calendar.

    According to data released Wednesday by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, Nonfarm Payrolls increased by 130,000 in January, following December’s upwardly revised gain of 48,000 (from 50,000) and surpassing market forecasts of 70,000. The report also showed the Unemployment Rate easing to 4.3% from 4.4%, while the Labor Force Participation Rate edged up to 62.5% from 62.4%. In response, the USD Index strengthened, climbing toward the 97.30 area. Early Thursday, the index enters a consolidation phase, moving sideways near 97. Meanwhile, US equity futures advance between 0.2% and 0.3%, reflecting an improved risk appetite.

    In the UK, data released Thursday indicated that the economy expanded by 0.1% quarter-over-quarter in the three months to December 2025, matching Q3 growth. On an annual basis, GDP rose 1.0% in Q4, below the expected 1.2% and down from the prior quarter’s revised 1.2% (previously 1.3%). Additionally, December Industrial Production and Manufacturing Output declined by 0.9% and 0.5% month-over-month, respectively, both falling short of forecasts. GBP/USD showed little immediate reaction, trading flat near 1.3630.

    EUR/USD trades sideways around 1.1870 after ending Wednesday in negative territory. Several European Central Bank (ECB) officials are scheduled to speak later in the day.

    USD/JPY continued its weekly decline despite overall USD strength, marking its third consecutive daily loss on Wednesday. The pair extends its drop early Thursday, trading at a two-week low below 153.00.

    In Australia, RBA Assistant Governor Sarah Hunter stated Thursday that she expects labor market conditions to remain tight and inflation to stay above target for an extended period. She added that capacity constraints in the economy and labor market will be closely monitored. AUD/USD surged over 0.7% on Wednesday, reaching a fresh three-year high near 0.7150. Although the pair is correcting lower on Thursday, it remains comfortably above 0.7100 in European trading.

    Gold struggles to build further upside momentum but holds above the $5,000 level after posting moderate gains the previous session.

    Sources: Eren Sengezer

  • Brent crude rises as geopolitical tensions support oil prices – Deutsche Bank

    Deutsche Bank analysts highlight that Brent crude has continued to climb as investors respond to escalating geopolitical tensions involving Iran, along with new remarks from President Trump following his meeting with Israel’s Prime Minister.

    According to the bank, speculation over a possible US military strike on Iran, combined with ongoing diplomatic talks, is helping to underpin oil prices, pushing both Brent and WTI higher.

    Iran-related risk premium lifts Brent

    Regarding recent developments, President Trump met Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu at the White House yesterday, stating that he had “urged that negotiations with Iran proceed to determine whether a deal can ultimately be reached.”

    He later wrote on social media that “Previously, Iran chose not to make a deal and faced Midnight Hammer — which did not turn out well for them. Hopefully, this time they act more reasonably and responsibly.”

    By the end of the session, Brent crude had risen 0.87% to $69.40 per barrel, and it gained a further 0.25% this morning to reach $69.57 per barrel.

    Sources: Fxstreet

  • Gold and silver prices edged lower after robust payroll data reduced expectations for interest rate cuts.

    Gold and silver prices declined during Asian trading on Thursday after stronger-than-expected U.S. payrolls data dampened expectations for deeper Federal Reserve rate cuts, though losses were cushioned by ongoing safe-haven demand.

    Precious metals largely held onto this week’s gains, supported by continued dollar weakness and elevated tensions between the U.S. and Iran, which kept demand for safe assets intact.

    Spot gold dropped 0.7% to $5,051.26 per ounce, while April gold futures slipped 0.5% to $5,072.04/oz as of 01:36 ET (06:36 GMT). Spot silver fell 1.3% to $83.2505/oz, and platinum declined 1.6% to $2,107.30/oz.

    Gold pressured as dollar rebounds on solid payrolls data

    Gold came under pressure after January’s U.S. nonfarm payrolls report, released Wednesday, exceeded expectations. The stronger labor market reading reduced bets that slowing employment would prompt additional rate cuts from the Fed.

    According to CME FedWatch, markets are now assigning a 94.1% probability that the Fed will keep rates unchanged in March, and a 78% chance of no change in April.

    The upbeat data also triggered a rebound in the U.S. dollar overnight, weighing on metal prices. However, the dollar stabilized in Asian trade and remains slightly lower for the week, partly due to strength in the Japanese yen.

    OCBC analysts noted that a sustained dollar recovery would require further evidence of resilience in the U.S. economy — a scenario that could still offer some support to gold.

    “Structural headwinds — including uncertainty around Fed leadership succession and broader U.S. policy risks — suggest the dollar will need additional upside data surprises to maintain any rebound,” OCBC analysts said.

    Even so, precious metals remained volatile after sharp swings over the past week amid heightened uncertainty surrounding U.S. monetary policy.

    U.S. inflation data and Iran tensions in focus

    Investors are awaiting further signals on the U.S. economy, particularly January consumer price index data due Friday. Inflation and labor market conditions remain the Fed’s primary considerations for rate decisions. Weekly jobless claims figures are also scheduled for release later Thursday.

    Safe-haven demand continued to lend support to metals amid ongoing U.S.–Iran tensions. Although both sides reported some progress in nuclear talks over the weekend, Washington was reportedly preparing to send a second aircraft carrier to the Middle East.

    President Donald Trump also urged Tehran to accept a deal with Washington and met Israeli President Benjamin Netanyahu on Wednesday, underscoring persistent geopolitical risks.

    Sources: Ambar Warrick

  • Bitcoin steady near $67K after strong U.S. jobs data; CPI in focus.

    Bitcoin hovered around $67,000 during Thursday’s Asian session, showing little movement as investors weighed stronger-than-expected U.S. jobs data that reduced hopes for an imminent Federal Reserve rate cut. The leading cryptocurrency edged up 0.4% to $67,102.8 but remained below the crucial $70,000 threshold, with trading subdued amid thinner liquidity conditions.

    After bouncing back from a steep drop toward $60,000 earlier this month, Bitcoin has struggled to rebuild bullish momentum.

    Robust U.S. jobs data tempers rate-cut expectations; CPI in focus

    Figures released Wednesday showed U.S. nonfarm payrolls rose more than anticipated in January, highlighting ongoing strength in the labor market. The unemployment rate stayed near multi-month lows, and wage growth remained solid—reinforcing expectations that the Fed may keep interest rates elevated for longer.

    In response, traders scaled back bets on a near-term rate cut, with market pricing now suggesting lower chances of easing before June. Prolonged higher rates tend to pressure risk-sensitive assets like cryptocurrencies.

    Market participants are now looking ahead to weekly jobless claims data due later Thursday for additional insight into labor conditions. Friday’s U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) report will also be closely watched for signals on inflation and the Fed’s policy path.

    Bitcoin’s continued failure to break above $70,000 underscores cautious sentiment and lingering volatility following its recent decline, keeping prices largely range-bound.

    BlockFills suspends withdrawals amid crypto downturn – reports

    Crypto liquidity provider BlockFills has reportedly paused client withdrawals amid a sharp downturn in digital asset prices, according to multiple media outlets on Wednesday.

    The Financial Times and other sources said the suspension, which began last week, aims to safeguard both clients and the company during turbulent market conditions while restoring liquidity on the platform.

    Clients are reportedly still able to trade spot and derivatives under certain restrictions.

    BlockFills serves over 2,000 institutional clients and processed more than $60 billion in trading volume in 2025, the FT noted. The move echoes similar steps taken by crypto firms during previous market slumps.

    Crypto prices today: Altcoins edge higher in sideways trade

    Most major altcoins posted modest gains Thursday amid range-bound trading.

    Ethereum, the second-largest cryptocurrency, rose 1.1% to $1,972.92, while XRP gained 1.6% to $1.38. Solana traded flat, whereas Cardano and Polygon each climbed 2.5%. Among meme coins, Dogecoin advanced 2.2%.

    Sources: Ayushman Ojha

  • Asian stocks surged, with the KOSPI at a record high and the Nikkei above 58,000, as markets awaited U.S. jobs data.

    Most Asian equities advanced on Thursday, led by a record-breaking surge in South Korea, where chip stocks powered gains. Japanese shares were mostly steady after earlier climbing to a new all-time high above 58,000, supported by optimism surrounding the so-called “Takaichi trade.”

    Regional upside was limited, however, after stronger-than-expected U.S. employment data underscored the resilience of the labor market. While the figures eased worries about the health of the world’s largest economy, they also reduced expectations for near-term interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve.

    On Wall Street, major indexes finished largely unchanged overnight, with futures trading flat during Asian hours.

    KOSPI sets record as Samsung rallies on AI momentum

    In Seoul, the KOSPI surged nearly 3% to a historic high of 5,515.8, extending gains fueled by robust demand for AI-related semiconductors.

    Samsung Electronics jumped more than 6% to record levels after a senior executive emphasized the firm’s technological leadership in next-generation HBM4 (high-bandwidth memory) chips. The comments boosted confidence in Samsung’s production plans and its competitive positioning in advanced AI memory markets.

    Investors are increasingly viewing HBM4 as a key driver of the next phase of AI hardware expansion, supporting profit margins and earnings visibility.

    SK Hynix also rose 3.5%, buoyed by expectations of sustained demand for high-end memory chips used in AI servers.

    Nikkei surpasses 58,000 milestone

    Japan’s Nikkei 225 briefly broke above the 58,000 mark for the first time, hitting a new record before trimming gains to trade flat. The broader TOPIX index climbed 1.5% to a fresh all-time high of 3,888.94.

    The rally has been partly linked to optimism over Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s election win. Investors have responded positively to her pro-growth agenda, which includes backing domestic industries, increasing defense spending, and maintaining supportive financial conditions—policies seen as favorable for exporters and cyclical sectors.

    Strong U.S. jobs data tempers Fed cut expectations

    U.S. data released Wednesday showed nonfarm payrolls increased by 130,000 in January, well above forecasts, while the unemployment rate unexpectedly dipped to 4.3% from 4.4%. The figures highlighted ongoing strength in the labor market.

    Although the report eased fears of an economic slowdown, it also dampened hopes for imminent Federal Reserve rate reductions.

    Elsewhere in Asia-Pacific, Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 gained 0.5% and Singapore’s FTSE Straits Times rose 0.7%. China’s CSI 300 and Shanghai Composite were mostly unchanged, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng fell more than 1%, diverging from regional trends. India’s Nifty 50 futures edged up 0.1%.

    Sources: Ayushman Ojha

  • What’s Next for Sysco (NYSE: SYY)? Assessing the Impact of the Whistleblower Ruling and Continued Margin Pressure on the Stock

    Short Trade Setup

    Consider initiating a short position between $84.57 (the lower boundary of the horizontal support range) and $87.35 (the upper boundary of that support zone).

    Market Index Overview

    Sysco Corporation (SYY) is a constituent of the S&P 500 Index.

    While the index is trading near record highs, declining trading volume raises concerns about the sustainability of the rally. The Bull Bear Power Indicator has turned positive but remains below its downward-sloping trendline, suggesting that bullish momentum lacks full confirmation.

    Market Sentiment

    Equity futures are edging lower after the Dow Jones Industrial Average posted another all-time high, with the S&P 500 closing in on a record level of its own.

    Retail sales data may introduce short-term volatility today, though the primary macro catalyst this week is tomorrow’s January Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report. Investors are also watching Coca-Cola’s earnings and price swings in gold, silver, and Bitcoin.

    Despite a recent two-day rebound, technology stocks face renewed downside risks as rising memory costs pressure margins. Meanwhile, Alphabet is reportedly planning to issue its first 100-year bond since the dot-com era.

    Fundamental Analysis of Sysco Corporation

    Sysco is the world’s largest foodservice distributor, serving more than 700,000 customers through 340 distribution centers across ten countries.

    Why Bearish After a 22%+ Rally?

    Despite its strong rally, several factors support a cautious outlook:

    • The $52 million whistleblower ruling, while not materially damaging on its own, adds headline risk.
    • Continued margin compression reinforces broader profitability concerns.
    • The latest earnings report lacked strong positive catalysts.
    • Insider selling has increased in recent weeks.
    • The stock is trading near the consensus analyst price target, limiting apparent upside.
    • Elevated debt levels and negative free cash flow raise financial concerns within a structurally low-margin distribution business.
    • Signs of market saturation may restrict organic growth potential.

    Taken together, these factors suggest limited upside and increasing downside risk at current levels.

    Sysco’s price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 23.31 suggests the stock is relatively inexpensive. In comparison, the S&P 500 trades at a higher P/E multiple of 29.90.

    Meanwhile, the average analyst price target of $89.94 implies limited upside from current levels, while downside risks appear to be increasing.

    Sysco Corporation Technical Analysis

    Today’s SYY Signal

    The daily (D1) chart for SYY shows the formation of a new horizontal resistance area. Price is currently trading between the 0.0% and 38.2% levels of the ascending Fibonacci Retracement Fan.

    The Bull Bear Power Indicator remains in bullish territory but is displaying a negative divergence, signaling weakening upside momentum. Additionally, average bearish volume exceeds average bullish volume, suggesting stronger selling pressure.

    Although SYY has moved higher alongside the S&P 500 — typically a positive confirmation — bearish signals are beginning to build.

    SYY Short Trade Setup

    • Entry Zone: $84.57 – $87.35
    • Take-Profit Target: $71.23 – $73.67
    • Stop-Loss Range: $89.94 – $91.74
    • Risk-to-Reward Ratio: 2.48

    Sources: Adam

  • S&P 500 Analysis: Record Highs Amid Cautious Optimism and Active Buying

    Despite ongoing noise around elevated valuations, rapid price swings, and a general sense of unease surrounding major U.S. equity indices, the S&P 500 continues to hover near record territory. Futures have edged higher again this morning, with the index trading around the 6,979.50 level.

    Early last Friday, the S&P 500 dipped toward the 6,738.00 area, marking its lowest point since mid-December. However, a swift rebound restored upside momentum, pushing the index back within striking distance of all-time highs. The 7,000.00 mark remains a powerful psychological milestone for investors and short-term traders alike, especially those closely monitoring daily price action.

    The 7,000 Milestone in a Cautious Environment

    Although the S&P 500 typically moves less aggressively than the Nasdaq 100, it remains a popular vehicle for speculative positioning, particularly among retail traders using CFDs. Recent weeks have brought heightened volatility, yet the index has consistently stayed near the 7,000.00 threshold—a level it briefly surpassed in late January and early February.

    Still, maintaining sustained breakouts has proven challenging. For bullish conviction to strengthen, traders may look for a decisive and lasting move above 7,000.00. Until such confirmation materializes, choppy and range-bound conditions are likely to persist—especially with key economic releases on deck, including Retail Sales, employment data, and Friday’s Consumer Price Index report.

    Short-Term Positioning Amid Lingering Caution

    While it may seem contradictory to speak of nervousness with the index near record highs, institutional sentiment appears notably guarded. This caution could serve as a defensive posture in case markets experience renewed downside volatility, similar to the sharp pullbacks seen in recent weeks.

    Although the S&P 500’s ability to test upper-tier levels is encouraging, persistent headwinds have so far prevented a confident breakout into fresh territory. A series of strong U.S. economic readings may be needed to fuel a sustained advance. Whether that catalyst emerges remains to be seen.

    S&P 500 Short-Term Outlook:

    • Current Resistance: 6,982.00
    • Current Support: 6,972.00
    • Upside Target: 7,015.00
    • Downside Target: 6,957.00

    Sources: Robert

  • Gold capped as risk appetite offsets softer USD before NFP

    • Gold rebounds and trims some of the modest losses recorded in the previous session.
    • Ongoing weakness in the US Dollar, driven by expectations surrounding the Federal Reserve, continues to support the metal.
    • However, positive market sentiment could limit further gains as investors wait for the upcoming US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report.

    Gold (XAU/USD) maintains modest intraday gains above the $5,050 mark as it heads into Wednesday’s European session. Expectations of additional interest rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) have pushed the US Dollar (USD) to a near two-week low, providing support for the non-yielding precious metal. However, prevailing risk-on sentiment could limit further upside for the safe-haven asset. Traders may also prefer to stay on the sidelines ahead of the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report before committing to fresh bullish positions.

    On Tuesday, the US Census Bureau reported that Retail Sales were flat in December, following a 0.6% increase in November and falling short of the 0.4% growth forecast. Combined with signs of cooling in the US labor market, the data has led economists to lower their fourth-quarter growth projections, reinforcing expectations of further Fed rate cuts. Money markets are currently pricing in around 58 basis points of easing in 2026, a factor that continues to weigh on the Greenback.

    At the same time, worries over the Federal Reserve’s independence resurfaced after US President Donald Trump stated on Saturday that he could take legal action against his newly nominated Fed Chair, Kevin Warsh, if interest rates were not reduced. Adding to the debate, Fed Governor Stephan Miran remarked that complete central bank independence is unattainable. These developments overshadowed hawkish remarks from regional Fed Presidents Lorie Logan and Beth Hammack and offered little support to the US Dollar. As a result, Gold appears to retain a favorable upward bias.

    Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan noted that the labor market is stabilizing and downside risks are fading, while inflation has remained above the 2% target for nearly five years. She added that current monetary policy may be close to neutral, exerting limited restraint on the economy. Similarly, Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack said the policy rate is near neutral territory, putting the Fed in a strong position to assess incoming data. Hammack also suggested that rates could remain unchanged “for quite some time,” given persistently elevated inflation and ongoing tariff-related uncertainties.

    Despite this supportive backdrop, XAU/USD bulls appear cautious and may prefer to await the US monthly employment report for clearer signals on the Fed’s policy path. The outcome will likely shape near-term US Dollar movements and provide fresh direction for Gold. Meanwhile, improved risk sentiment and indications of easing tensions in the Middle East could temper demand for the safe-haven metal. Therefore, waiting for solid follow-through buying may be prudent before anticipating further gains.

    Gold must break above the $5,090 resistance area to reinforce the outlook for further upside.

    From a technical standpoint, XAU/USD demonstrated resilience below the 200-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart earlier this month. The SMA continues to slope upward and remains comfortably beneath the current price, reinforcing the broader bullish bias. As long as the pair holds above this level, the overall trajectory remains skewed to the upside.

    That said, momentum indicators point to some consolidation. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains above the Signal line and in positive territory, though the narrowing histogram indicates waning upward momentum. Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers around 56, reflecting neutral-to-slightly bullish conditions and supporting a consolidative outlook. This suggests it may be wise to wait for a decisive move above the $5,090 resistance level before targeting additional gains.

    A continued contraction in the MACD histogram could signal a pause or range-bound trading, whereas a renewed expansion would indicate a resurgence in bullish momentum. Additionally, with the RSI holding above 50, the underlying bias remains constructive; a climb toward 60 would further strengthen upside prospects. Overall, the technical setup favors buying on modest pullbacks while momentum stabilizes.

    Sources: Haresh Menghani

  • USD: Concerns over Fed independence limit reaction to jobs data – Commerzbank

    Commerzbank’s Antje Praefcke suggests that the delayed January U.S. jobs report is unlikely to significantly move the Dollar, with Nonfarm Payrolls projected at about 70,000 and the unemployment rate holding at 4.4%. She notes that investors are likely to pay closer attention to the outlook for Federal Reserve policy under Kevin Warsh and to ongoing concerns about the Fed’s independence, which she views as the main medium-term risk facing the Dollar.

    Employment report takes a back seat to Fed-related risks

    “I’m not convinced this will trigger any significant moves in the US dollar, for two reasons.”

    “In that context, a reading of roughly 70,000 – or even 60,000 – should not unsettle markets, as it would still point to a labor market that is softening but not collapsing. As such, there is little justification for making substantial changes to interest rate expectations tied to the Fed’s employment mandate.”

    “While key data releases will likely continue to drive short-term swings in the dollar, the overriding issue remains the Fed’s independence, which is effectively the sword of Damocles hanging over the currency.”

    “Ultimately, the future independence of the Fed is the central question and the greatest risk for the greenback. Clarity on this matter is unlikely before spring.”

    Sources: Fxstreet

  • US House defeats bid to block challenges to Trump tariffs.

    The U.S. House of Representatives on Tuesday narrowly defeated a push by Republican leaders to prevent lawmakers from challenging President Donald Trump’s tariffs, voting 217-214. The outcome could allow Democrats to move forward with efforts to overturn the trade measures.

    Three Republicans sided with all 214 Democrats in opposing the proposal, which sought to bar any tariff-related challenges until July 31. The restriction had been folded into a procedural resolution meant to advance debate on three separate, unrelated bills.

    The setback marks a notable blow to House Speaker Mike Johnson, who oversees a razor-thin 218-214 Republican majority, leaving virtually no margin for dissent on party-line votes. With Democrats united in opposition, Johnson can afford to lose no more than one Republican on any given measure.

    In the wake of the vote, Democrats could push for a House vote as soon as Wednesday to end Trump’s reliance on a national security emergency declaration to justify tariffs on Canada and other key U.S. allies. They have also drafted additional resolutions aimed at blocking tariffs on Mexico and several other nations.

    Republicans had enforced procedural rules since March of last year to shield the tariffs from legislative challenges, extending them through January. However, the latest extension lapsed amid internal GOP resistance, as some members raised concerns about the economic burden on American households and businesses reliant on global trade.

    The vote came as Supreme Court Justice Ketanji Brown Jackson signaled that the Court will need additional time to rule on the legality of Trump’s tariff policies.

    Sources: Investing

  • Gold appears poised to climb further as growing fiat currency risks and geopolitical tensions intensify.

    The author argues that fiat currency is increasingly unstable due to excessive government debt and geopolitical tensions, while gold represents enduring monetary strength. Historically, there have been only four major rallies in fiat currencies over the past 50 years, each weaker than the last, suggesting a long-term decline in confidence.

    Concerns are growing as the U.S. continues expanding debt while using its currency as a geopolitical tool, prompting individuals and institutions to shift toward gold. Although some investors missed earlier buying opportunities around $4,400, the current ascending triangle pattern on gold’s chart suggests further upside potential, with a projected target near $5,900.

    U.S. stock valuations are extremely elevated, while government deficit spending relative to GDP is already at levels typically seen during severe crises. If deficits remain this high during strong markets and under an administration that claims fiscal discipline, the concern is that a future crisis—combined with less restraint—could drive the deficit-to-GDP ratio even higher.

    In short, individuals should prepare not only for a potential U.S. recession but possibly a stagflationary downturn, with the suggested strategy being to strengthen personal savings through holdings in gold and silver.

    On the geopolitical front, rising tensions are viewed as supportive for gold. One concern is the idea of pressuring Taiwan to shift advanced semiconductor production to the U.S., potentially through heavy tariffs on Taiwanese-made chips. Such actions could increase inflation and strain U.S.–Taiwan relations, possibly reshaping regional dynamics with China. Overall, the situation appears increasingly unstable—conditions that historically tend to benefit gold as a safe-haven asset.

    In Cuba, worsening economic conditions—such as public transportation disruptions—reflect deeper structural problems, with little sign of meaningful reform. If instability escalates, it could increase global uncertainty, a backdrop that typically supports higher gold prices.

    The US government’s disturbing plot to elevate election denier, admirer of torture, and destroyer of civic life Delcy Rodríguez has already taken another troubling turn. This nightmare is just one of many geopolitical mechanisms propping up gold interests.
    Could it get even more absurd? In theory, yes — if María Corina Machado were arrested next. Would President Trump then flaunt a Nobel Prize she once held to his followers obsessed with fiat currency and oil, while she languished in prison under Rodríguez’s brutal treatment?

    In such a scenario, Venezuela could spiral into civil war, with chaos on a scale that might rival what we’re seeing in Iran.

    So, do you have any gold?

    What about silver? Silver also looks very strong. A glance at the chart highlights the 14,7,7 Stochastics oscillator at the bottom.

    It has moved into the buy zone — only the third time this has happened since August. A rally back toward the $122 highs appears entirely achievable.

    Silver reached solid support near $70 just as gold touched $4,400. I encouraged investors to anchor their purchases to gold’s powerful technical performance. Those who stepped in at that point are being rewarded, with silver already climbing back above $80 this morning — and the opportunity may still not be gone for those considering entry.

    And the miners? Take a look at the daily CDNX “Jump in the Pool” chart. The Stochastics indicator is signaling strong momentum, and even if prices retreat toward support around 825, that would likely present another attractive buying opportunity.

    The long-term chart looks remarkable. A massive inverse head-and-shoulders pattern appears to be forming. Notice the blue circle on the left side of the chart — a pause around the neckline area now would simply enhance the symmetry between the right and left sides. For enthusiastic junior mining stock investors, the outlook suggests the potential for years of rising prices ahead.

    What about the senior miners — are they worth buying as well? Looking at the long-term GDX versus gold chart, a large inverse head-and-shoulders pattern is taking shape. The formation closely mirrors what’s developing on the CDNX versus fiat chart.

    A glance at the daily chart suggests there may be some consolidation over the next couple of weeks. However, Stochastics has returned to levels last seen in November. Considering the alarming deficit-to-GDP dynamics, ongoing geopolitical turmoil, and the shifting global power landscape, I’d argue that senior gold stock investors worldwide should be ready to step up and take action.

    Sources: Stewart Thomson

  • A crash and recession can be bullish, not bearish.

    One of the strangest modern myths about capitalism is the belief that markets and the economy should always rise, and that any decline signals failure requiring intervention. In reality, true capitalism depends on periodic crashes and recessions to clear excess debt, leverage, and speculation. Without these corrections, the system cannot function properly.

    Arguments that markets must always go up—such as constant sector rotation, the idea that the economy can’t survive downturns, or faith in the Federal Reserve’s ability to permanently prevent declines—ignore how dynamic systems work. Human emotions like greed and fear naturally create cycles of boom and bust, leading to excesses that must eventually be reset.

    If downturns are continuously suppressed through stimulus and bailouts, the system becomes fragile and detached from reality. Like forests that need small fires to prevent catastrophic infernos, markets need corrections to clear imbalances. Though crashes feel devastating, they ultimately strengthen the system by allowing it to reset and grow sustainably.

    This broken, self-defeating mindset sees the healthy reset as a threat and responds by doubling down on the very policies that weakened the system—just to preserve the illusion that capitalism means markets must always rise.

    This isn’t capitalism — it’s systemic model collapse paving the way for an unavoidable meltdown.

    Sources: Charles Hugh Smith

  • Yield Curve Control and the Conclusion of the Treasury Inversion

    It has become increasingly clear that Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent favored Kevin Warsh for the role. Warsh has advocated for tighter coordination between the Federal Reserve and the Treasury Department, particularly in managing the yield curve and conducting open market operations. The Treasury yield curve is currently at its steepest level in four years, suggesting that Bessent has been effective in resolving the inversion that occurred under his predecessor, Janet Yellen. If Warsh is confirmed as the next Fed Chair, Bessent’s influence is likely to grow further—an important factor if the Fed aims to reduce interest rates.

    According to the Financial Times, some economists question Warsh’s belief that artificial intelligence will have a deflationary effect. Warsh argues that AI will spark “the most productivity-enhancing wave of our lifetimes—past, present and future,” boosting output and allowing the Fed to lower key rates without fueling inflation. Such remarks are expected to draw significant attention during his Senate confirmation hearing.

    On Tuesday, the Commerce Department reported that retail sales were flat in December. However, November’s figures were revised upward to a 0.6% increase, up from the previously reported 0.3%. Economists had anticipated a 0.4% rise in December, making the latest data disappointing. Because of the federal government shutdown, the report was released a month late, and the substantial upward revision to November’s data has somewhat diminished the report’s impact. Following the release, Treasury yields fell, increasing the likelihood of another Fed rate cut.

    Meanwhile, after a month-long pursuit, the U.S. Navy seized its eighth Venezuelan crude oil tanker in the Indian Ocean. The vessel, Aquila II, had attempted to bypass the U.S. blockade. The Navy’s intensified crackdown on so-called “shadow tankers” is expected to worry countries like Iran and Russia, which have also relied on similar methods to transport oil despite sanctions.

    In diplomatic developments, U.S. and Iranian officials met in Oman to discuss dismantling Iran’s nuclear program. Washington is pressing Tehran to halt uranium enrichment, limit its ballistic missile program, and end support for regional proxy groups. Iran, however, has stated it is only willing to negotiate over its nuclear activities. If talks collapse, the U.S. could carry out another military strike, which explains its significant naval buildup in the region. Notably, Iran seized two oil tankers before the negotiations but later described the discussions as “positive.”

    Sources: Louis Navellier

  • Gold, silver climb on soft U.S. data; payrolls awaited.

    Gold and silver edged higher in early Asian trading Wednesday after weak U.S. retail sales fueled expectations of a slowing economy, with investors awaiting payrolls data for clearer direction.

    Despite the gains, precious metals remained volatile after retreating from record highs in late January, and have struggled to rebound. A softer dollar and weak U.S. data provided only modest support, while Middle East tensions sustained some safe-haven demand.

    Spot gold rose 0.3% to $5,038.21 an ounce and April futures gained 0.6% to $5,061.45, still roughly $600 below recent peaks. Spot silver climbed 0.9% to $81.5135, and platinum added 0.9% to $2,105.86.

    Metals rise following weak U.S. retail sales data.

    Precious metals posted modest losses on Tuesday before rebounding Wednesday after December U.S. retail sales came in weaker than expected.

    The softer data signaled cooling consumer spending amid persistent inflation and labor market pressures, raising concerns about the economic outlook. Expectations that the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates further this year weighed on Treasury yields and kept the dollar subdued, lending support to metal prices.

    Investors are now focused on the upcoming nonfarm payrolls report for clearer signals on the economy. Signs of continued labor market weakness could strengthen bets on rate cuts, which typically favor non-yielding assets like gold.

    However, uncertainty over U.S. monetary policy persists, particularly after President Donald Trump nominated Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair. Warsh is seen as less dovish, a perception that has pressured metal markets since late January.

    Sources: Ambar Warrick

  • Oil rises on U.S.-Iran tensions, China demand eyed.

    Oil prices advanced in Asian trading on Wednesday as investors monitored developments in U.S.-Iran relations and looked ahead to travel demand during an upcoming major holiday in China.

    Crude rebounded from part of the previous session’s losses, supported by a softer U.S. dollar ahead of key economic data releases.

    By 21:04 ET (02:04 GMT), April Brent futures climbed 0.6% to $69.18 a barrel, while WTI crude futures also gained 0.6% to $64.19 a barrel.

    Oil prices rise amid US-Iran tensions over potential supply disruptions.

    On Tuesday, Iranian officials stated that recent nuclear discussions with the United States helped Tehran assess Washington’s intentions, adding that diplomatic engagement between the two nations would continue.

    The remarks followed talks held last week regarding Iran’s nuclear program, which came after U.S. President Donald Trump sent several warships to the Middle East.

    Although both sides indicated some progress from their weekend negotiations, attention shifted after the U.S. issued a maritime warning for vessels passing through the Strait of Hormuz.

    Media reports also suggested that Trump was weighing the deployment of a second aircraft carrier near Iran—a step that could significantly heighten regional tensions.

    Amid the uncertainty, oil markets incorporated a risk premium, as traders grew concerned that potential military action might disrupt Iranian oil supplies.

    China’s Lunar New Year travel surge draws attention as CPI data falls short of expectations.

    Oil prices found some support on expectations of stronger Chinese fuel consumption during the upcoming Lunar New Year holiday.

    This year’s Lunar New Year, marking the Year of the Horse in the Chinese zodiac, falls on February 17 and will be observed with an extended nine-day public holiday from February 15 to 23.

    The festive period typically drives higher consumer spending in China, particularly in travel. Authorities project a record 9.5 billion passenger journeys during the spring holiday travel rush.

    International travel is set to include several favored destinations across Southeast Asia, though flights to Japan have reportedly declined sharply amid escalating diplomatic tensions between Beijing and Tokyo.

    Meanwhile, recent economic data signaled that deflationary pressures persist in China, as consumer price index figures came in below expectations and producer prices continued to contract.

    Sources: Ambar Warrick

  • U.S. stock futures edged up as investors awaited the postponed employment report.

    U.S. equity futures moved slightly higher Tuesday night following a modest decline in the regular trading session, as investors assessed softer retail sales figures and looked ahead to a series of postponed U.S. economic reports due later in the week.

    By 20:11 ET (01:11 GMT), S&P 500 futures rose 0.2% to 6,978.25, Nasdaq 100 futures advanced 0.3% to 25,291.75, and Dow Jones futures added 0.2% to 50,385.0.

    Wall Street declined ahead of the upcoming jobs report, while the Dow posted a fresh record closing high.

    During Tuesday’s regular session, the S&P 500 declined 0.3% and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 0.6%, pressured by losses in technology and other growth-oriented stocks.

    In contrast, the Dow Jones Industrial Average managed a slight advance, closing above the 50,000 mark at a new record high for the third consecutive session.

    Earlier, investors reacted to U.S. retail sales figures showing flat monthly consumer spending, missing expectations. The softer data fueled worries that elevated borrowing costs may be starting to curb household demand, despite broader signs of economic resilience. This strengthened expectations that the Federal Reserve could move toward rate cuts later this year if growth continues to ease.

    Attention now shifts to the delayed monthly employment report, set for release Wednesday following the recent government shutdown. The data will offer the first detailed snapshot of labor market conditions in weeks, as policymakers monitor for indications of cooling.

    Markets are also awaiting the postponed U.S. consumer price index report on Friday, which could play a pivotal role in shaping near-term market sentiment.

    Robinhood and Lyft slide in after-hours trading.

    In company-specific developments, Robinhood Markets (NASDAQ: HOOD) fell 7.5% in after-hours trading after posting earnings that came in below expectations, as weaker-than-anticipated revenue and user figures pressured the stock.

    Shares of Lyft (NASDAQ: LYFT) plunged more than 17% in extended trading after the ride-hailing firm reported results that missed forecasts, further weighing on consumer-focused tech stocks.

    Meanwhile, Ford Motor Company (NYSE: F) delivered quarterly earnings that fell short of Wall Street estimates, citing costs related to its electric vehicle operations and ongoing supply chain challenges. Despite the miss, the automaker projected improved earnings in 2026. Ford shares rose 0.5% in after-hours trading.

    Sources: Ayushman Ojha

  • Domestic stocks could outperform as globalization pulls back and growth becomes more home-focused.

    Last week, I attended the 2026 Harvard Presidents’ Seminar with leading executives and thinkers, where Ambassador Kevin Rudd, former Australian prime minister, stood out. He warned that the post–World War II rules-based global order is likely fading, giving way to a more 19th-century style world defined by power politics and spheres of influence. Rudd, a realist rather than an alarmist, argued that a strong U.S. remains essential for global stability, while a weakened U.S. risks creating power vacuums that China and Russia are ready to exploit.

    A Fracturing Global Order?

    For roughly eight decades after World War II, the United States played a central role in shaping the global order—promoting open markets, free trade, democratic expansion, and the U.S. dollar as the world’s reserve currency—underpinning a period of relative stability.

    According to Rudd, that chapter may now be closing. Democratic governance is weakening worldwide, while the number of armed conflicts has climbed to its highest level since World War II.

    China and Russia are making their ambitions increasingly explicit. Just last week, Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin reaffirmed their deepening partnership, pledging mutual support across economic, military, and ideological fronts. With the New START treaty expiring this month, the final pillar of nuclear arms control between the United States and Russia has now fallen away.

    Redrawing the Global Playbook

    Rudd, who has written two major books on Xi Jinping, cautioned that China’s current leader is far from a pragmatist in the mold of Deng Xiaoping, whose market-oriented reforms in the 1970s set China on its path to global prominence. Instead, Xi is best understood as a Marxist-Leninist nationalist.

    Under his leadership, China has moved beyond simply operating within existing global rules to actively reshaping them. The Chinese Communist Party is pursuing an all-encompassing strategy that spans nearly every sphere—military modernization, industrial leadership, energy self-sufficiency, and more. As I noted back in October, I see China’s expansive Belt and Road Initiative as a Trojan horse.

    For Xi’s government, economic strength and national security are inseparable, a reality most evident in its approach to energy and technology.

    China’s Sweeping Energy Expansion

    As the U.S. continues to oscillate on energy policy, China has been pressing ahead at full speed. Since 2021, it has added more power-generating capacity than the United States has built over its entire 250-year history—an astonishing feat achieved in just four years.

    In 2025 alone, China brought online 543 gigawatts of new capacity across solar, wind, coal, nuclear, and gas. Looking ahead, BloombergNEF projects an additional 3.4 terawatts over the next five years—nearly six times what the U.S. is expected to add. The objective is clear: to ensure that China’s next wave of industries, including AI, robotics, and advanced manufacturing, is never constrained by energy shortages.

    Clean Energy Emerges as the Next Growth Engine

    As I’ve noted before, both Elon Musk and NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang have warned that China’s enormous power surplus could give it a decisive edge in AI computing—and the data backs that up.

    In 2025, clean energy accounted for more than a third of China’s GDP growth and over 90% of new investment. Industries such as solar, electric vehicles, and battery technology generated more than $2.1 trillion in economic output, roughly on par with the GDP of Canada or Brazil. Viewed on its own, China’s clean energy sector would rank as the world’s eighth-largest economy.

    Meanwhile, in Washington, progress remains stalled by politics.

    By contrast, the United States has struggled to execute large-scale energy buildouts amid political gridlock and partisan divides. While China plans decades ahead, U.S. policymakers too often remain focused on the next election cycle.

    According to a recent report from the Information Technology and Innovation Foundation (ITIF), China is on course to overtake the U.S. across a wide range of what it terms “national power industries.” These span military sectors such as guided missiles and tanks, dual-use industries like electronic displays and semiconductors, and enabling industries including automobiles and heavy construction equipment.

    That said, the U.S. continues to commit heavily to defense spending. Congress recently approved an $839 billion defense bill—$8 billion more than requested by the Pentagon—with funding directed toward key systems such as the F-35, the B-21 bomber, and the Sentinel intercontinental ballistic missile program. More than $13 billion is also allocated to space and missile defense under President Trump’s Golden Dome initiative.

    What This Means for Investors

    Equity markets may already be signaling the start of a new investment cycle. In January, leadership shifted toward small-cap, domestically oriented stocks. While the S&P 500 hit new highs with a gain of about 1.4%, the Russell 2000 jumped 5.4%, markedly outperforming large caps. Small caps also logged a 15-day streak of outperformance versus the S&P—the longest since May 1996.

    This strength does not appear to be a one-off. Since the beginning of Trump’s second term, the Russell 2000 has edged ahead of the S&P 500, rising roughly 17% versus 15% as of Friday, February 6. Some small-cap companies, though not all, tend to be less exposed to tariffs and could benefit over time in a less globalized world.

    That said, careful stock selection is critical. Around 40% of Russell 2000 constituents are currently unprofitable.

    Finally, with precious metals retreating from recent highs, investors may want to consider buying the dip. A 10% allocation to gold—split evenly between physical bullion and high-quality mining stocks—can help diversify portfolios, with regular rebalancing remaining essential.

    Sources: Frank Holmes

  • The U.S. dollar is coming under pressure as interest rate differentials start to narrow, limiting further upside.

    The U.S. dollar is in focus this week as investors await key economic data, including Non-Farm Payrolls and inflation figures that were postponed last week due to delays in passing a government spending bill. Recent data, such as the ADP report released on February 4, point to a cooling labor market. Attention will also turn to inflation readings due on Friday.

    While high-frequency and analytical indicators suggest inflation is no longer accelerating and is gradually easing, it remains sticky—particularly in the services sector—keeping core inflation above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target.

    CME FedWatch data indicate that markets continue to expect a gradual easing cycle from the Fed. The probability of a March rate cut remains low, at around 20–23%, with investors instead anticipating potential cuts later in the year as clearer signals emerge from inflation and labor market trends. Longer-term pricing implies a base case of 50–75 basis points of cumulative rate cuts by 2026. These expectations appear to be limiting further upside for the U.S. dollar.

    In the euro area, inflation has already fallen to around or below target. ECB President Christine Lagarde said last week that inflation is in a good place, even though readings may fluctuate in the coming months due to unpredictable geopolitical risks, stressing that policy will not react to every data point.

    Euro-area money markets are therefore pricing in a much firmer policy stance. Current market pricing implies roughly a 90% chance of no rate change at the March 2026 Governing Council meeting, with very limited easing expected over the year—around 0–10 basis points and, in some scenarios, no cuts at all. With inflation already subdued and a stronger euro adding further disinflationary pressure, euro-area rates are seen as relatively stable.

    By contrast, U.S. front-end rates are expected to decline more quickly, by around 50–75 basis points. This narrowing of short-term rate differentials in favor of the euro provides mechanical support for further upside in EUR/USD.

    Last week, the Bank of England kept its policy rate unchanged at 3.75%, but the decision was narrowly split 5–4, with an unexpected four members voting for an immediate 25 basis point cut. Forward guidance indicated that rates are “likely to be reduced further.” The BoE expects inflation to ease toward 2% from April, and both markets and economists are leaning toward a rate cut in the spring, around March or April.

    Compared with the BoE, the ECB is seen as maintaining a steadier policy stance. As a result, the BoE’s signal that cuts are more likely later on does not, by itself, justify further downside in EUR/GBP unless the ECB were to shift unexpectedly toward a more dovish hold. Upcoming UK data through March and April—particularly wage growth, services CPI, and the April CPI release—will be crucial in determining whether the probability of an April rate cut rises, which would likely weigh on the pound.

    In conclusion, interest rate differentials are narrowing, but unevenly. The Fed’s eventual easing bias caps sustained strength in the U.S. dollar, the ECB’s comparatively stable stance supports the euro, and the Bank of England’s closer proximity to further rate cuts creates relative downside risk for sterling.

    Sources: Dennis Mwenga

  • The cryptocurrency market edged lower after a modest rebound failed to reassure risk-seeking investors.

    The total cryptocurrency market capitalization has fallen about 10% over the past week to roughly $2.36 trillion. Paradoxically, this also marks a 10% rebound from Friday’s lows. Despite that uptick, near-term prospects remain uncertain, as the recovery stalled over the weekend and met selling pressure around the $2.4 trillion level. This suggests the move may have been a temporary bounce within a broader decline that has yet to fully run its course.

    The sentiment index dropped to 6 over the weekend, matching the lows seen on June 18–19, 2022, and only falling lower once before, on August 22, 2019. By Monday, it had rebounded to 14 in line with market prices, but this remains an extremely depressed level and does not yet support confident buying.

    Bitcoin recovered steadily on Friday after an early sharp sell-off, but from Saturday onward it encountered strong resistance around the $71,000 level. Significant supply remains in the market from investors looking to exit on rebounds, suggesting persistent selling pressure. Under these conditions, the possibility of a fresh test of the 200-week moving average in the near term should not be ruled out.

    The decline in Bitcoin prices has been accompanied by shrinking liquidity, heightened volatility, weaker risk appetite, and a stronger correlation with equity markets. CryptoQuant suggests BTC could drop to around $54,600, a level at which the market may shift from capitulation toward accumulation.

    Amid the broader crypto sell-off, Strategy reported a net loss of $12.6 billion for the fourth quarter, with operating losses totaling $17.4 billion. CEO Fong Le said the company would only face debt-servicing risks in the event of an extreme Bitcoin collapse to about $8,000.

    Cardano founder Charles Hoskinson disclosed unrealized losses exceeding $3 billion, while emphasizing that he has no plans to liquidate his holdings even if market conditions deteriorate further.

    Bitcoin miners are increasingly shutting down operations as losses mount. Mining profitability has fallen to record lows due to declining crypto prices and higher electricity costs, with JPMorgan estimating the average cost of mining at roughly $87,000 per BTC.

    Following the latest adjustment, Bitcoin’s mining difficulty dropped 11.16% to 125.86 trillion, marking the steepest decline since 2021, when China banned cryptocurrency mining.

    Despite the prevailing pessimism, JPMorgan remains constructive on Bitcoin’s long-term outlook, forecasting that it could eventually reach $266,000. The bank has also recently lifted its long-term gold price forecast to $8,000–8,500.

    Sources: Alexander Kuptsikevich

  • Amazon is preparing to roll out an AI-driven content marketplace, according to a report by The Information.

    Amazon has indicated to publishing executives that it intends to introduce a marketplace allowing publishers to license their content to companies developing artificial intelligence products, according to a Monday report by The Information.

    The report said Amazon Web Services shared presentation slides ahead of its conference on Tuesday that referenced a planned content marketplace, citing two sources familiar with discussions with Amazon.

    Those slides reportedly place the marketplace alongside AWS’s main AI offerings, such as Bedrock and Quick Suite, positioning it as a tool publishers could use in their operations.

    The move comes as publishers and AI firms continue negotiations over how digital content may be used for AI training or for generating responses, with publishers seeking fees tied to the level of content usage.

    An Amazon spokesperson said the company had no specific comment on the report, noting its long-standing partnerships with publishers and its ongoing focus on innovation.

    The development follows Microsoft’s recent announcement that it is working on a Publisher Content Marketplace, an AI licensing platform that reflects publishers’ usage terms.

    Sources: Reuters

  • Gold prices edged lower but held above the $5,000-per-ounce level, while silver prices also retreated.

    Gold prices slipped in early Asian trading on Tuesday, pulling back from strong gains in the previous session as investors turned cautious ahead of a series of important U.S. economic data releases this week. Silver and platinum also moved lower, despite some limited support from an overnight dip in the dollar, which later showed signs of recovery in Asian hours.

    Spot gold declined 0.8% to $5,016.28 an ounce, while April gold futures fell 0.8% to $5,041.60 an ounce. Spot silver dropped 2.4% to $81.29 an ounce, and spot platinum slid 2% to $2,081.71 an ounce.

    Precious metals have seen sharp volatility over the past week, with profit-taking and stretched positioning driving prices down from record highs. Markets have also been unsettled by uncertainty around U.S. monetary policy, particularly ahead of a potential leadership change at the Federal Reserve.

    Attention this week is firmly on key U.S. economic indicators for signals on growth and the future path of interest rates. January nonfarm payrolls data is due on Wednesday, followed by consumer price index inflation data on Friday, both of which are critical inputs for the Fed given its focus on inflation and labor market conditions.

    Investors are also assessing the potential policy direction under Kevin Warsh, President Donald Trump’s nominee to succeed Jerome Powell as Fed chair when Powell’s term ends in May. Warsh is widely seen as less dovish, and his nomination triggered steep selloffs in metals markets that have yet to be fully reversed, with gold plunging from near-record highs around $5,600 an ounce and silver falling from above $120 an ounce.

    Sources: Ambar Warrick

  • Oil prices tick lower as markets watch U.S.–Iran tensions.

    Oil prices edged lower in Asian trade on Tuesday, giving back some of the previous session’s gains as markets focused on U.S.–Iran tensions and awaited key economic data. Crude had jumped more than 1% earlier after reports suggested Washington was taking a more cautious stance toward Iran, offsetting optimism from weekend talks.

    A weaker dollar had supported prices, though the greenback stabilized on Tuesday. Brent futures slipped 0.1% to $68.99 a barrel, while WTI fell 0.2% to $64.06.

    The United States has released a maritime advisory concerning Iran.

    On Monday, the U.S. Maritime Administration warned U.S.-flagged ships to keep as much distance as possible from Iranian waters while transiting the Strait of Hormuz and the Gulf of Oman, advising vessels to remain closer to Oman due to the risk of boarding by Iranian forces.

    The advisory underscored ongoing tensions between Washington and Tehran, despite recent diplomatic talks showing some progress and commitments to further negotiations on Iran’s nuclear program, which remain strained as Iran has largely dismissed calls to halt nuclear enrichment.

    Markets are awaiting upcoming economic data releases from the United States and China.

    This week’s focus is on economic data from the world’s largest oil consumers, which is expected to shape demand expectations. In the U.S., January nonfarm payrolls are due on Wednesday, followed by consumer price index inflation data on Friday, with both releases likely to influence interest-rate outlooks amid an upcoming leadership transition at the Federal Reserve. In China, CPI data is also scheduled for Friday, just ahead of the week-long Lunar New Year holiday, when travel activity and fuel demand are expected to increase.

    Sources: Ambar Warrick

  • Asian currencies strengthen, with the yen holding election gains as the dollar slips ahead of key data.

    Most Asian currencies strengthened on Tuesday, following an overnight pullback in the dollar as its recent rebound lost momentum ahead of a batch of key U.S. economic data due this week. The Japanese yen edged higher, extending prior gains as fresh government warnings on possible market intervention supported the currency, offsetting concerns about heavier fiscal spending under Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi after her landslide election win. Regional FX benefited from the softer dollar, though advances were capped by investor caution ahead of upcoming U.S. data releases.

    Dollar steadies after overnight drop, with payrolls and CPI in focus.

    The dollar index was little changed in Asian trade after sliding about 0.7% overnight, leaving the greenback hovering near a late-January, almost four-year low. BofA said the absence of fresh catalysts points to choppy, two-way dollar trading with a mild bearish bias ahead of key U.S. data. Markets are now focused on December retail sales due Tuesday, followed by January nonfarm payrolls on Wednesday and CPI inflation on Friday.

    The data will be closely scrutinized for signals on interest rates, as markets remain on edge over U.S. monetary policy following President Donald Trump’s nomination of Kevin Warsh to succeed Jerome Powell as Fed chair. Warsh is seen as a less dovish choice, a perception that has already fueled a sharp dollar rebound and weighed on Asian currencies.

    Asian currencies firm, with the yen holding on to post-election gains.

    Asian currencies broadly strengthened on Tuesday, led by the Japanese yen, with USD/JPY down 0.3%. The yen extended gains for a second session after renewed government warnings on possible currency intervention, helping it shrug off lingering concerns over Japan’s heavy debt burden despite Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s landslide victory. Her ruling coalition’s supermajority gives room for expansive fiscal and budget reforms, including higher spending and tax incentives.

    Elsewhere, the Chinese yuan rose, with USD/CNY down 0.2% to its strongest level in over 2½ years, supported by firm midpoint settings from Beijing ahead of upcoming CPI data. The Australian dollar slipped 0.1%, paring gains after hawkish RBA comments, while BofA warned the Aussie’s rally may be overextended. The Singapore dollar was flat despite stronger-than-expected Q4 GDP, while the South Korean won and Indian rupee edged higher, though the rupee remained above 90 per dollar.

    Sources: Ambar Warrick

  • Trump warns Canada over new Ontario–Michigan bridge, demands 50% stake.

    U.S. President Donald Trump said Monday he would immediately seek talks with Canada to secure compensation for a bridge under construction between Ontario and Michigan, insisting the U.S. should own at least 50% of it. In a Truth Social post, Trump claimed the project moved forward without U.S. approval and accused the Obama administration of allowing Canada to bypass “Buy American” requirements. He also criticized Canada’s efforts to expand trade with China, making unsubstantiated remarks in the process.

    Canada’s Chamber of Commerce warned that threatening to block bridges would be counterproductive, noting that the Trump administration itself had backed the project as a priority in 2017. The Gordie Howe International Bridge, funded entirely by the Canadian government at an estimated cost of C$6.4 billion, is being built by the Windsor-Detroit Bridge Authority and is expected to open in early 2026. Trump’s comments come as U.S.–Canada relations remain strained amid trade tensions and Canada’s pivot toward China.

    Sources: Ambar Warrick

  • Asian stocks rose on tech strength, with the Nikkei hitting a new high near 58,000 after Takaichi’s win.

    Asian equities climbed further on Tuesday, led by tech stocks, with Japan’s market hitting new records as investors embraced the “Takaichi trade” after PM Sanae Takaichi’s election win. Sentiment was supported by modest gains on Wall Street overnight, where the Nasdaq outperformed on a rebound in tech and AI shares, while U.S. futures were mostly flat in Asian trading.

    Nikkei jumps to a fresh record, closing in on 58,000 after Takaichi’s victory.

    Japan’s Nikkei 225 surged as much as 3% to a fresh record of 57,960, while the broader TOPIX advanced about 2.2% to an all-time high of 3,863.90. The gains followed a strong session on Monday, when the Nikkei rose nearly 4% and the TOPIX added 2.3%.

    The rally underscored growing investor confidence in Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s policy agenda, widely seen as supportive of economic growth, corporate earnings, and domestic investment. Her decisive election victory over the weekend has reinforced expectations of continued pro-business reforms, expansionary fiscal policy, and initiatives to boost capital spending, innovation, and strategic sectors.

    ING analysts said the landslide win strengthens the case for “responsible but expansionary” fiscal spending and a more Japan-centric foreign policy, adding that risk-on sentiment is likely to dominate markets in the near term.

    Asian tech stocks extend gains

    Technology shares across Asia extended recent gains after last week’s sharp global sell-off driven by AI and valuation concerns. South Korea’s KOSPI rose 0.5% after a more than 4% surge previously, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng added 0.5%, led by a 1% gain in the tech subindex. Mainland Chinese benchmarks were flat, Australia’s ASX 200 edged up 0.2%, Singapore’s STI slipped 0.3%, and India’s Nifty 50 futures were little changed. Investors are also awaiting key U.S. jobs and inflation data later this week for signals on interest rates and global growth.

    Sources: Ayushman Ojha

  • Week Ahead: Jobs and CPI Data May Reset March Fed Expectations

    As a polar vortex brings arctic conditions across the U.S., the economic calendar is set to heat up. The week ahead features two of the most consequential data releases for shaping Federal Reserve policy expectations: the January employment report and the Consumer Price Index (CPI).

    Owing to recent government shutdowns, the January employment report (Wednesday) and CPI release (Friday) will be published unusually close together. The labor report is particularly significant, as January data typically incorporates annual revisions to employment figures, raising the possibility of notable downward adjustments for the year through March 2025.

    A key reference point will be the Federal Reserve’s own assessment of potential overstatement in jobs growth. In December, Fed Chair Jerome Powell noted that internal research suggested official figures may have overstated monthly job gains by as much as 60,000 since April. Given that reported job growth averaged just under 40,000 per month over that span, the scope of upcoming revisions could have meaningful implications for the FOMC’s March policy decision.

    The week also features remarks from several Fed officials, including Governors Christopher Waller (Monday), Stephen Miran (Monday and Thursday), and Michelle Bowman (Wednesday). Among voting Fed presidents this year, Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack and Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan are both scheduled to speak on Tuesday.

    Markets will also be watching price action on Wall Street following last week’s record close for the Dow Jones Industrial Average above 50,000. The ongoing AI-led shakeout among major technology stocks bears close scrutiny, as does the renewed “old economy” rotation bringing previously sidelined sectors—such as oil and gas, chemicals, transportation, and regional banks—back into focus. Adding to the cross-currents is gold’s continued rally, occurring alongside a sharp pullback in bitcoin.

    The following data releases carry the greatest potential to move markets and shape the Federal Reserve’s assessment of whether further rate cuts are warranted:

    Employment

    We expect nonfarm payrolls to rise by 60,000 in January, following a 50,000 increase in December (see chart). Markets will be closely focused on the size and direction of revisions to prior data. A meaningful downside surprise could increase pressure on Chair Powell to consider a rate cut later this month, even though we do not believe monetary policy can directly address the underlying weaknesses in the labor market.

    CPI 

    Markets are seeking further confirmation that inflation continued to ease in January. December’s 2.6% year-over-year reading matched a four-year low in core CPI inflation (see chart). The Cleveland Fed’s Inflation Nowcasting model currently projects a 0.22% month-over-month increase in core inflation, translating to a 2.45% annual rate. Additional insight on inflation pressures will come from the Q4 2025 Employment Cost Index and December import and export prices, both due Tuesday, as well as the New York Fed’s January inflation expectations survey on Monday.

    Retail sales

    Despite ongoing concerns about the cost of living and a fragile labor market, household spending continues to show resilience. Retail sales in December, due Tuesday, are expected to post another solid gain following November’s 0.6% month-over-month increase. Looking ahead, larger annual tax refunds should help sustain consumer spending momentum. Reflecting this strength, forward earnings for the S&P 500 Retail Composite climbed to a record high during the week of February 6 (see chart).

    Jobless claims

    Initial jobless claims due Thursday will draw heightened scrutiny as investors look to determine whether last week’s jump to 231,000 was driven by severe winter storms rather than a broader acceleration in layoffs. The balance of evidence points to a weather-related distortion, which would likely reassure the Fed that the labor market remains on relatively stable footing.

    Sources: Ed Yardeni

  • Gold Moves Into Accumulation Mode as VC PMI Eyes 5,094–5,208 Resistance

    Gold futures remain in a well-defined bullish consolidation, with prices oscillating around the VC PMI daily mean near 4,982. The market’s continued defense of the Buy-1 level at 4,768 and Buy-2 at 4,556 reinforces the view that institutional demand is emerging on pullbacks. This price action aligns with the core VC PMI mean-reversion framework: sustained trade above the mean increases the probability of a move toward the Sell-1 and Sell-2 targets.

    Within the VC PMI framework, the weekly mean around 4,839 has acted as the key pivot for directional bias. As long as price action remains above this level, bullish momentum is sustained, with upside projections toward the daily Sell-1 resistance at 5,094 and Sell-2 at 5,208. These zones mark statistically extreme levels where the probability of mean reversion typically exceeds 90% under normal market conditions. A decisive breakout and close above Sell-2 would indicate a transition into a higher-volatility regime, opening the door to the weekly Sell-1 level at 5,255 and potentially the weekly Sell-2 target near 5,530.

    Square-of-9 geometry closely mirrors the current price structure, highlighting that the recent peak near 5,113 aligns with a harmonic resistance angle projected from prior cycle lows around 4,423. This geometric relationship suggests gold is completing a rotational phase ahead of its next directional move. When prices oscillate between key geometric angles, it often signals energy compression that ultimately resolves through a momentum expansion.

    Time-cycle analysis into mid-February points to a critical inflection window. With prices consolidating above the mean, the higher-probability outcome favors continuation toward upper resistance bands. Conversely, a failure to hold the 4,982 pivot would likely prompt a corrective rotation toward 4,768 and potentially 4,556, levels where longer-term accumulation demand is expected to reappear.

    The combined use of VC PMI price levels, time-cycle analysis, and Square-of-9 geometry creates a multidimensional framework for identifying high-probability inflection points. Rather than forecasting direction, traders should concentrate on price reactions at the mean and statistically extreme bands. Directional bias is ultimately confirmed by the market itself, once price closes decisively above or below these levels.

    Sources: Patrick MontesDeOca

  • Week Ahead: Tech volatility weighs on markets ahead of jobs, CPI and retail sales data

    Key Highlights

    Japan equities rally: Japanese stocks surged after Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s landslide election victory, boosting expectations of higher government spending on defense and AI. The Nikkei jumped as much as 4.2% to a record high, while the Topix rose up to 2.6%, led by gains in electronics and banking stocks.

    Gold rebounds: Gold climbed above $5,000 an ounce, rising as much as 1.6% early on as dip buyers returned following a volatile week. The move was supported by Japan’s election outcome, which fueled expectations of looser fiscal policy and a weaker yen—both supportive for bullion. Gold remains about 11% below its Jan. 29 peak but is still up roughly 15% year to date.

    Oil slips: Oil prices edged lower as easing Middle East tensions reduced near-term supply disruption risks. Talks between Iran and the U.S. in Oman on Tehran’s nuclear program were described by Iran as “a step forward.”

    Asia markets higher: Asian equities opened higher, tracking Friday’s rebound on Wall Street. Stocks jumped in Japan and South Korea, with the Kospi—popular among AI-linked trades—surging 4%. U.S. futures were firmer after the S&P 500 closed about 2% higher on Friday amid dip-buying and improved consumer sentiment.

    Algo-driven risks flagged: Goldman Sachs warned that trend-following algorithmic funds could accelerate U.S. equity selling this week. A renewed decline could trigger around $33 billion in automated sales immediately, with a break below 6,707 on the S&P 500 potentially unleashing up to $80 billion more over the next month. Thin liquidity and short-gamma positioning may keep volatility elevated.

    AI fears spark selloff: Concerns over AI’s economic impact intensified after Anthropic unveiled new tools, triggering a broad selloff that erased $611 billion in market value across 164 software, financial services, and asset management stocks. Despite the selloff, fundamentals remain intact, with S&P 500 software and services earnings expected to grow 19% in 2026 and valuations becoming more attractive.

    Wall Street rebound: U.S. equity futures ticked higher late Sunday after a strong rebound on Friday. Bitcoin jumped following steep losses, the Dow hit a fresh record above 50,000, and the S&P 500 reclaimed its 50-day moving average. The Nasdaq, however, remained below that key level and ended the week notably weaker.

    U.S. Economic Data and Corporate Earnings Schedule

    Investors are set to focus on the delayed January labor market data, alongside upcoming consumer inflation (CPI) and retail sales releases. The jobs and CPI reports were postponed due to a brief government shutdown last week, while December retail sales figures were also delayed following the 2025 shutdown.

    The Federal Reserve continues to view inflation as “somewhat elevated,” with January’s CPI report, due Friday, expected to provide further clarity. As the central bank assesses risks to both inflation and employment as having eased, markets are pricing in no additional rate cuts before the June meeting. By then, Kevin Warsh—President Trump’s nominee for Fed chair—could be in office.

    Despite the Fed’s year-end rate cut, futures markets still anticipate roughly two additional 25-basis-point cuts by December, a pricing stance that has remained largely unchanged since Warsh’s nomination last month.

    Economic calendar:

    Monday, Feb 9
    Remarks from Fed officials including Governors Stephen Miran and Christopher Waller, along with Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic.

    Tuesday, Feb 10
    Key U.S. data releases include December retail sales, NFIB Small Business Optimism, the Q4 Employment Cost Index, December import prices, and November business inventories.
    Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack is also scheduled to speak.

    Wednesday, Feb 11
    The January U.S. employment report is due, alongside remarks from Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman.
    The monthly U.S. federal budget for January will also be released.

    Thursday, Feb 12
    Data highlights include January existing-home sales and weekly initial jobless claims for the week ending Feb 7.
    Governor Stephen Miran is scheduled to speak.

    Friday, Feb 13
    The January Consumer Price Index (CPI) will be released.

    Earnings Calendar:

    Monday, Feb. 9
    Earnings are due from Apollo Global Management, Onsemi, Loews, and Principal Financial.

    Tuesday, Feb. 10
    A heavy earnings slate includes Coca-Cola, AstraZeneca, Gilead Sciences, BP, CVS Health, Spotify, Duke Energy, Marriott, Ferrari, Ecolab, Robinhood, Cloudflare, Ford, Honda Motor, and Barclays.

    Wednesday, Feb. 11
    Reports are expected from Cisco, McDonald’s, T-Mobile, AppLovin, and Shopify.

    Thursday, Feb. 12
    Applied Materials, Arista Networks, Unilever, Vertex Pharmaceuticals, Brookfield, Airbnb, and Coinbase Global are scheduled to report.

    Friday, Feb. 13
    Enbridge and Moderna round out the week.

    Cisco is set to report fiscal Q2 results after Wednesday’s close. Consensus estimates call for adjusted EPS of $1.02, up 9% year over year, on revenue of $15.1 billion, an 8% increase. Product orders are expected to soften slightly following 13% growth last quarter, while AI-related orders may cool after reaching $1.3 billion in Q1. Investors will be watching for upside tied to Cisco’s AI-networking partnership with Nvidia and signs of a recovery in its security segment following a weak prior quarter despite the Splunk acquisition.

    AstraZeneca reports Q4 results early Tuesday, with analysts forecasting flat adjusted EPS and roughly 4% sales growth. The company’s recent move from Nasdaq to the NYSE has helped propel shares sharply higher, up around 108% in February.

    Robinhood is expected to post a roughly 38% decline in EPS to $0.63, even as revenue is seen rising nearly 34% to $1.36 billion on stronger options, equities, and transaction activity. Crypto revenue is projected to fall about 28% to $259 million. The company has recently faced regulatory scrutiny related to prediction markets, including halting sports-related contracts in Nevada, contributing to a sharp pullback in the stock last week.

    Elsewhere, McDonald’s earnings are expected to show about 8% EPS growth—its strongest quarter since late 2023—while Coca-Cola is forecast to report modest slowing growth, despite shares gaining around 8% since breaking out in January.

    By the end of the week, more than 80% of Dow Jones Industrial Average constituents will have reported earnings.

    Technical Analysis:

    DJIA Index
    The index confirmed a breakout from a bullish rectangular consolidation on Friday. As long as support at 49,970 holds, the upside target remains at 51,000.
    DJIA daily candlestick chart.

    Nasdaq 100 Index
    The NDX broke below the 25,200 support level last Wednesday, in line with the view that a sustained move under 25,200 would open the door toward 24,650. The index subsequently dropped to 24,455 before reclaiming 24,650. It is now rebounding toward 25,200, with further upside toward 25,370. A decisive break above 25,370 would expose resistance near 25,850.
    NDX daily candlestick chart.

    SPX Index
    The SPX successfully defended the 6,790–6,780 support zone during its second pullback of the year. The index is now consolidating within a rectangular range. As long as support at 6,780 holds, the upside target remains 7,010.
    SPX daily candlestick chart.

    Weekly Probability Outlook for U.S. Indices

    The U.S. weekly market probability map for Feb. 9–13, 2026 points to a mixed open for U.S. equity indices, followed by a stronger close and a rally developing midweek. The probability maps are based on historical seasonality trends, with sentiment readings generated through a seasonality-driven scoring model.

    Sources: Ali Merchant

  • Major Australian pension fund says Aussie dollar is undervalued, increases currency exposure

    A major Australian pension fund has increased hedging on its international equities, arguing the Australian dollar is undervalued as the Reserve Bank of Australia tightens policy while most major central banks pause or prepare to cut rates.

    Jeff Brunton, head of portfolio management at HESTA, which manages A$100 billion in assets, said the fund has raised its exposure to the Australian dollar, citing long-term valuation models that point to persistent undervaluation. By increasing currency hedging, HESTA aims to protect portfolio returns if a stronger Aussie dollar erodes the local-currency value of overseas investments.

    The move contrasts with the traditionally low level of currency hedging among Australian investors in U.S. equities, where the U.S. dollar has typically been viewed as a shock absorber. HESTA is the second large fund to adjust its strategy recently, following similar steps by Australian Retirement Trust.

    Analysts note that increased Australian dollar buying by pension funds could add upward pressure to the currency, which rose 4.3% last month to a three-year high and has gained nearly another 1% in February. Support has also come from the RBA’s recent 25-basis-point rate hike to 3.85%, strong commodity-driven trade surpluses, and Australia’s yield advantage over other G10 economies.

    HESTa currently holds A$23.45 billion in international equities, and Brunton said the fund remains underweight foreign currencies relative to both its long-term targets and its peers.

    Sources: Reuters

  • Bitcoin price today: Holds steady above $70,000 as Japan election boosts market sentiment

    Bitcoin hovered above the $70,000 mark on Monday, stabilizing after a sharp rebound late last week from lows near $60,000, as investors reassessed risk appetite following widespread liquidations and shifted focus to key U.S. economic data due later in the week.

    The world’s largest cryptocurrency was last up about 1.5% at $70,402.5 by 01:25 ET (06:25 GMT), moving further away from a roughly 16-month low of around $60,187 reached earlier in the week.

    On Friday, Bitcoin surged back above $70,000, jumping more than 12% in a single session as rallies in technology stocks and precious metals lifted risk assets more broadly. The rebound was supported by bargain hunting after the steep selloff, alongside signs of stabilisation across global markets.

    Bitcoin’s sharp decline last week reflected a broader risk-off environment, driven by a selloff in U.S. technology shares — especially AI-related stocks — and forced liquidations in crypto futures markets, which intensified downward pressure.

    Ongoing outflows from Bitcoin spot ETFs and a pullback from leveraged positions were also seen as key contributors to the heightened volatility.

    Japan election reinforces the shift in risk sentiment

    Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s decisive election victory on Sunday reinforced her mandate to push ahead with fiscal stimulus and tax reductions. The landslide result lifted regional equities and was linked to a renewed appetite for risk across some global markets.

    Although the yen initially weakened ahead of the vote, it later steadied alongside equity gains, helping to support broader market sentiment.

    Attention is now turning to a series of important U.S. economic releases later this week, including delayed employment data due on Wednesday and the consumer price index report on Friday.

    These figures are expected to shape expectations for the Federal Reserve’s policy path, with markets currently factoring in potential rate cuts later in 2026 should inflation cool and labour market momentum slow.

    Crypto prices today: altcoins remain subdued after rebounding from recent lows

    Most major altcoins moved within narrow ranges on Monday, showing limited follow-through after their recent rebound.

    Ethereum, the world’s second-largest cryptocurrency, traded largely unchanged at $2,076.41. XRP, ranked third, edged 1.1% higher to $1.43.

    Solana slipped marginally, while Cardano and Polygon were little changed on the day.

    In the meme-token space, Dogecoin underperformed, falling about 2%.

    Sources: Ayushman Ojha

  • Gold and Silver: Volatility is undermining their role as portfolio diversifiers – HSBC

    HSBC Asset Management said gold and silver posted dramatic price swings in 2025, fueled by geopolitical risks and worries about the Federal Reserve’s independence, before evolving into a retail-driven speculative phase. Analysts caution that leveraged selling could increase their correlation with equities, but note that central bank de-dollarisation efforts and crisis-related demand continue to support the long-term structural case for precious metals.

    Safe-haven demand weighed against speculative flows

    “This year’s moves in gold and silver have been extraordinary.
    Sparked by geopolitical tensions and concerns over the Federal Reserve’s independence, the 2025 rally morphed into a retail-driven speculative surge, making a correction increasingly probable.

    So where does that leave investors who rely on gold as a portfolio diversifier? Although retail inflows lifted returns, they also brought equity-like volatility — at odds with gold’s traditional safe-haven role.

    That said, recent turbulence shows that no safe haven is perfect, reinforcing the case for ‘diversifying the diversifiers’: taking an active, multi-asset approach to seek uncorrelated returns across a wide range of assets.”

    Sources: Fxstreet

  • EUR/USD holds key support as traders assess the next leg higher

    Key highlights

    • EUR/USD slipped below 1.1900 and tested support near 1.1780.
    • The pair broke above a key bearish trend line, previously acting as resistance around 1.1810 on the 4-hour chart.

    EUR/USD technical analysis

    On the 4-hour chart, EUR/USD tested the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the advance from the 1.1577 swing low to the 1.2082 peak. The pair has held above both the 100-period (red) and 200-period (green) simple moving averages, signaling underlying support.

    The pair is stabilizing above 1.1780 and has recently cleared the bearish trend line near 1.1810. On the upside, initial resistance is seen around 1.1850, followed by 1.1890. A sustained close above 1.1890 could pave the way for further gains toward 1.1920, with a potential extension toward the 1.2000 handle.

    On the downside, immediate support remains at 1.1780. A deeper pullback could test the 1.1720 area, while the key support level lies at 1.1700. A break below this zone would likely shift momentum in favor of the bears and could expose the 1.1650 region.

    Sources: Aayush Jindal