Bitcoin (BitfinexUSD) is rebounding from its weekend slide, trading above the $67,000 mark as investors process a dramatic shift in Middle Eastern geopolitics.
The bounce comes after intense volatility sparked by coordinated U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran. President Donald Trump stated that the operation led to the death of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Although Tehran initially rejected the reports, Iranian state media later confirmed his death, triggering sharp reactions across global financial markets.
As highlighted in Saturday’s analysis, Bitcoin has a consistent pattern of sharply dropping on unexpected geopolitical shocks before stabilizing. That pattern appears to be unfolding again. After falling to nearly $63,000 yesterday, the cryptocurrency has gradually attracted renewed capital flows as the initial wave of panic selling eases.
Ethereum and XRP are also participating in the broader recovery. ETH/USD has moved back toward the $2,000 level, while XRP is trading near $1.40, with investors anticipating a key March 1 deadline that could bring greater regulatory clarity in the United States.
Regime change dynamics and shifting sentiment
Khamenei’s death was a decisive and largely unforeseen development. The swift return of buyers into Bitcoin reflects a growing belief among traders that the most severe phase of military escalation may have already passed.
At the same time, optimism is tempered by uncertainty surrounding the power vacuum in Tehran. As Iran’s highest authority for decades, Khamenei’s absence leaves open questions about the country’s leadership transition and broader regional stability.
President Trump’s remarks encouraging Iranians to “reclaim their country” indicate that Washington may be aiming for structural regime change. For crypto investors, the coming days represent a critical period of observation. If Iran manages a controlled leadership transition without broadening the conflict, Bitcoin’s rebound could remain intact. However, a drawn-out internal or regional confrontation could quickly pressure the $67,000 support level once more.
Escalation risks and Bitcoin’s “safe haven” debate
Despite the recovery, the possibility of a wider regional conflict persists. Iran’s Revolutionary Guards have reportedly carried out strikes against neighboring states hosting U.S. forces, and casualties have been reported following retaliatory action involving Israel. This ongoing cycle of retaliation continues to unsettle institutional crypto participants.
The central issue now is whether Bitcoin can genuinely function as a “digital gold” hedge during geopolitical crises — or whether it will keep behaving like a high-beta technology asset that reacts sharply to shifts in global risk sentiment.
Official sector demand remains the cornerstone of the gold market. Since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022, central banks—especially in emerging economies—have stepped up efforts to diversify reserves amid sanctions risks, rising geopolitical fragmentation, and a push to reduce dependence on the United States dollar. Importantly, this buying trend has been consistent and largely insensitive to price swings.
Poland, the largest reported gold buyer last year, has indicated it will continue adding to its holdings, aiming to raise its total gold reserves to about 700 tonnes from roughly 550 tonnes. Rather than targeting a fixed 30% share of reserves, authorities are focusing on increasing the absolute level of holdings—highlighting that reserve accumulation is a strategic priority rather than a short-term tactical move.
Meanwhile, China’s central bank extended its gold-buying streak to a fifteenth consecutive month in January.
With geopolitical fragmentation still in place, a significant pullback in central bank demand appears unlikely. This enduring structural support continues to provide a firm foundation for gold prices, even at elevated levels.
Central Bank Demand Stays Strong
Geopolitics Returns to Center Stage
Geopolitical tensions have once again become a key macro driver. From renewed strains in the Middle East to escalating trade frictions and tariff threats, investors are facing a more fragile and unpredictable global landscape. Policy uncertainty—particularly around trade—has added volatility across asset classes. In this environment, demand for safe-haven assets remains well supported, with gold’s role as a hedge against geopolitical and policy shocks back in sharp focus.
Potential Fed Easing as a Tailwind
A shift in the US monetary policy outlook could provide additional support for gold. Although the Federal Reserve remains cautious, risks are gradually tilting toward policy easing as economic growth moderates and inflation continues to cool.
Our US economist expects rate cuts to begin in the second quarter, with policy becoming progressively less restrictive thereafter. Even a modest easing cycle would likely benefit gold by pushing real yields lower and reducing the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets.
Renewed Interest in ETFs
ETF positioning remains well below its 2020 peak, suggesting room for additional inflows. Following a period of consolidation, gold ETFs are once again drawing investor interest. While central bank purchases continue to anchor the market, ETF flows have the potential to magnify price movements.
If expectations for rate cuts strengthen or geopolitical risks intensify, a fresh wave of ETF inflows could drive another leg higher in gold prices. Historically, ETF holdings tend to rise alongside prices and closely track expectations for US monetary policy—reinforcing the case for stronger inflows as the Fed pivots toward a more accommodative stance.
ETF Flows Track Changes in Fed Policy
Digital Dollars and the Evolution of Reserves
Reserve diversification is no longer limited to central banks. The rapid expansion of US dollar–backed stablecoins has introduced a new class of institutional reserve buyers.
Stablecoin issuers—most notably Tether—have emerged as meaningful purchasers of reserve assets, including US Treasuries and, increasingly, gold.
Tether alone acquired more than 70 tonnes of gold last year, ranking second only to Poland among disclosed buyers, and now holds roughly 140 tonnes across its reserves and gold-backed token. If gold continues to play a role in stablecoin reserve allocation, the sector’s growth could become an additional structural source of demand—one that behaves more like central bank accumulation than retail investment flows.
Although still smaller in overall scale, this emerging channel adds another layer of long-term support to the market.
Momentum May Cool, but the Bullish Case Endures
The advance in gold prices is unlikely to follow a straight line. At record levels, physical demand tends to become more price-sensitive, making consolidation phases or short-term pullbacks increasingly likely.
That said, the core drivers behind the rally—central bank diversification, ongoing geopolitical fragmentation, the prospect of policy easing, and renewed ETF inflows—remain firmly in place. For now, the broader macro backdrop continues to favour gold.
Bitcoin declined on Friday, halting a recovery from its midweek lows as investor risk appetite stayed weak. The world’s largest cryptocurrency is now on track for a fifth straight month of significant losses.
The broader crypto market moved largely in line with Bitcoin and is also poised for steep losses in February, as both retail and institutional investors continued to avoid the sector.
By 00:48 ET (05:48 GMT), Bitcoin was down nearly 1% at $67,788.0.
Bitcoin on track for fifth straight monthly decline
Bitcoin was down nearly 14% in February, as the risk-off sentiment in the crypto market showed little sign of easing throughout the month.
Rising geopolitical tensions worldwide, uncertainty surrounding major global economies, and concerns over further disruptions from U.S. trade tariffs kept investors cautious and away from speculative assets like cryptocurrencies.
The digital asset dropped as much as 50% from its October record high earlier this month, though it has since staged a modest recovery from those lows.
Bitcoin has remained in a sustained downtrend since October, with purchases by major corporate holder Strategy doing little to stem the losses.
Strategy has also reportedly slowed its pace of Bitcoin acquisitions in recent months, amid mounting concerns that continued price declines could force the company to sell part of its holdings to service its debt.
MARA Holdings jumps as AI deal eclipses weak Q4 results
Shares of MARA Holdings — previously known as Marathon Digital (NASDAQ: MARA) — surged Thursday evening after the Bitcoin mining company revealed a partnership with Starwood Capital to repurpose several of its mining facilities into artificial intelligence data centers. The stock climbed as much as 17% in after-hours trading.
The announcement helped eclipse a steep $1.7 billion loss in the fourth quarter, driven by an extended slump in Bitcoin prices that severely pressured the firm’s mining profitability. Revenue also came in below expectations.
Amid continued weakness in Bitcoin and growing investor enthusiasm around AI, MARA has recently been shifting strategy, aiming to redeploy its computing infrastructure toward AI data center operations rather than focusing solely on cryptocurrency mining.
Crypto prices today: Altcoin recovery fades, February losses loom
Crypto markets retreated on Friday, giving back much of this week’s brief rebound, with most tokens on track to post steep declines for February.
The world’s second-largest cryptocurrency, Ethereum, slipped 1.2% to $2,038.21 and was heading for a monthly drop of nearly 17%. The token faced additional pressure after co-founder Vitalik Buterin sold more of his holdings, reinforcing cautious sentiment across the market.
XRP fell 2.3% and was poised to lose around 15% in February, while BNB held steady on Friday but remained down close to 20% for the month.
Solana was also nursing losses of roughly 17% in February, whereas Cardano traded largely unchanged. In the meme coin segment, Dogecoin declined 5.4% for the month, while Official Trump tumbled about 20% over the same period.
Bitcoin’s latest decline is unfolding amid mounting macroeconomic headwinds and crypto-specific pressures, fueling fears that the downtrend could deepen, with some analysts eyeing a potential floor near $45,000.
Trump’s 15% Global Tariff Weighs on BTC
On Saturday, February 21, US President Donald Trump unveiled a 15% blanket tariff on imports, jolting global financial markets — cryptocurrencies included. The move followed a decision by the US Supreme Court to overturn his earlier sweeping tariff measures. The revised levy, initially proposed at 10% before being lifted to 15%, officially comes into force today, February 24, 2026.
Activated under Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974, the new tariff covers the majority of imported goods for an initial 150-day period, with any extension subject to congressional approval. Although intended to narrow trade imbalances, the measure has heightened economic uncertainty, triggering a widespread retreat from risk-sensitive assets.
Within the crypto market, the development has reinforced a risk-off mood, as investors rotate out of volatile positions into safer havens. Bitcoin holders are increasingly realizing losses, with on-chain figures indicating more than $2.3 billion in realized losses over the past week.
Crypto analyst IT Tech described the move as one of the most significant capitulation phases in Bitcoin’s history, comparing it to the 2021 market crash, the 2022 Luna/FTX collapse, and the mid-2024 correction. In a post on X, he noted that the scale of losses ranks among the top three to five worst drawdowns ever recorded, adding that only a few moments in Bitcoin’s history have witnessed such intense capitulation.
The reaction reflects mounting concerns that higher import costs could reignite inflationary pressures, potentially forcing the Federal Reserve to delay rate cuts and keeping financial conditions tighter for longer.
Markets sold off swiftly following the announcement, with Bitcoin sliding intraday to below the $63,000 mark.
Spot Bitcoin ETFs Extend Outflow Streak to Five Weeks
Adding to the tariff-driven volatility, U.S.-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs have now recorded five consecutive weeks of net outflows — the longest stretch of withdrawals since February 2025.
Data from SoSoValue shows that nearly $3.8 billion has exited these funds over the five-week period, including $316 million in redemptions last week alone.
BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) accounted for the largest share of the withdrawals, losing roughly $2.1 billion during the streak. Fidelity Investments’ Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund (FBTC) and several other products also saw notable outflows.
The sharp reversal from the strong inflows seen in late 2024 highlights a cooling in institutional appetite, as portfolio managers trim crypto exposure amid heightened macro uncertainty and broader market turbulence.
The persistent ETF withdrawals are intensifying sell-side pressure on Bitcoin, as fund managers are forced to offload underlying BTC holdings to satisfy investor redemptions.
With total net outflows reaching $4.5 billion so far in 2026, much of the earlier inflow momentum has been erased. Analysts describe the environment as a “risk-off stress test,” where macro headwinds — including tariffs and geopolitical tensions — are discouraging fresh allocations into crypto.
Sentiment indicators reflect the strain. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index has plunged to one of its most extreme fear readings on record, reinforcing the ongoing wave of liquidation. Unless ETF flows stabilize or reverse, downside momentum may continue, particularly if institutional distribution remains dominant.
Bear Pennant Signals $45K Target for Bitcoin
From a technical perspective, Bitcoin’s chart structure remains bearish, with a well-defined bear pennant forming on the daily timeframe.
A bear pennant is a continuation pattern that follows a steep decline (the flagpole), then consolidates within a tightening symmetrical triangle before typically breaking lower.
The BTC/USD pair fell below a major support level at $80,117 — its November 2025 low — and slid to $60,000 on February 6, forming the flagpole. A rebound toward $72,000 followed, before price retreated again to around $63,100.
The pattern confirmed on Monday when Bitcoin broke beneath the pennant’s lower trendline near $67,000. Based on the measured-move technique — projecting the height of the flagpole from the breakout point — the downside target falls in the $45,000–$50,000 range.
A drop toward $45,000 would imply roughly a 28% decline from current levels, underscoring the risk of further capitulation if macro and flow dynamics fail to improve.
The bearish outlook is reinforced by strengthening downside momentum, with the RSI sliding from overbought territory near 70 on January 15 to around 29 currently — signaling growing selling pressure and near-oversold conditions.
Bitcoin continues to trade below key moving averages, keeping the broader technical structure fragile. A decisive break beneath the $60,000 threshold could intensify losses, opening the door toward the $52,450 realized price level — a historically significant support area.
On the other hand, a sustained move above $72,700 would invalidate the bear pennant setup and could shift momentum back in favor of the bulls, paving the way for a broader recovery.
Bitcoin fell again on Tuesday, deepening its recent slide and now trading roughly 50% below its October record high, as uncertainty surrounding U.S. tariff policy dampened risk appetite for digital assets.
The world’s largest cryptocurrency slipped 0.9% to $64,169.6 by 17:35 ET (22:35 GMT), after touching an intraday low of $62,650.1.
Broader crypto markets also remained under pressure, with both institutional and retail investors continuing to reduce exposure. Escalating geopolitical tensions involving Iran, along with an AI-driven selloff on Wall Street, further weighed on sentiment.
Bitcoin down 50% from peak
With Tuesday’s losses, Bitcoin is now trading about half below its early-October all-time high of $126,186.
The cryptocurrency has been in a sustained downturn since that peak, as fresh U.S. regulatory measures and ongoing purchases by major corporate holder Strategy failed to meaningfully support prices.
On Monday, Strategy revealed it had acquired an additional 592 Bitcoin. However, the firm is currently facing significant unrealized losses, as Bitcoin trades below its reported average purchase price of $76,020.
On-chain data from CryptoQuant and Coinglass indicated that large holders—commonly known as “whales”—continued transferring substantial amounts of Bitcoin to exchanges, suggesting further selling pressure.
Meanwhile, major buyers appear scarce. Data from Glassnode showed institutional investors recorded a fifth straight week of net outflows from U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs as of Monday.
Iliya Kalchev of Nexo Dispatch noted that U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw around $203 million in net outflows on Monday alone. At the same time, derivatives markets still show demand for downside hedging, while long-term holders have not signaled broad capitulation—leaving Bitcoin in what he described as a fragile balance between visible pressure and underlying structural conviction.
He highlighted the $60,000–$72,000 range as the key near-term zone. If ETF flows stabilize and macro volatility subsides, the range could form a base. But if outflows continue, focus may shift toward the realized price area near $55,000 as the next major reference point.
Tariff uncertainty adds pressure
Bitcoin’s latest weakness was largely driven by renewed uncertainty over U.S. trade policy after the Supreme Court struck down much of President Donald Trump’s tariff framework.
In response, Trump announced new universal tariffs of 15% under a different legal authority, though the initial rate implemented at midnight Tuesday was 10%. The president now faces additional legal hurdles in expanding tariffs but has shown little intention of retreating from his trade agenda, even warning that countries seeking to renegotiate trade deals could face higher duties.
Although cryptocurrencies are not directly tied to trade flows, they are highly sensitive to shifts in global risk sentiment. The uncertainty surrounding U.S. tariffs has triggered broader risk aversion across financial markets, spilling over into digital assets.
Altcoins follow Bitcoin lower
Most altcoins tracked Bitcoin’s decline, with the broader market showing little sign of relief from the ongoing downturn.
Ethereum slipped 0.1% to $1,857.78, hovering near early-February lows. XRP and BNB fell 0.2% and 1.9%, respectively, while Cardano declined 1.4%. Solana bucked the trend, rising 0.9%.
Among meme tokens, Dogecoin dropped 1.1%, while TRUMP gained 1.3%.
The purpose here isn’t to make a forecast, but to stay open-minded about money as both a social construct and a carrier of utility value.
The prevailing view argues that the US dollar is destined to collapse, steadily declining toward worthlessness. According to this narrative, the United States will keep creating new dollars to sustain the illusion of stability, until excessive money printing ignites hyperinflation and erodes what little value the dollar has left.
This outlook draws heavily from historical episodes such as the Weimar Republic, where large-scale money creation ultimately destroyed the currency. It’s possible the dollar could follow a similar path.
But money behaves in complex ways. Because it is fundamentally a social agreement, its potential outcomes are broader than we often assume. So instead of assuming collapse, let’s imagine a case for continued dollar dominance.
Consider two hypothetical types of money. The first is a globally recognized currency backed by a basket of industrial commodities—metals like silver and copper, fuels like oil, and other tangible resources. Its value stems not from scarcity alone but from the practical utility of the assets supporting it. Since it is tied to a physical reserve, new units can only be issued if that reserve grows. It cannot be created through lending by banks.
The second type of currency expires after a set period and must be spent before it loses all value. This resembles “scrip” money. Together, these two examples illustrate money’s dual role: a store of value and a medium of exchange.
Naturally, we would save the first form for long-term security—its value rests on enduring real-world utility. The expiring currency, by contrast, would be spent quickly on goods and services.
Now consider another scenario: traveling abroad and collecting small amounts of foreign cash. Each note is valuable within its home country but useless elsewhere until exchanged. The same logic applies to precious metals. If you try to pay for a bowl of noodles with silver, the vendor must convert it into local currency, incurring transaction costs. And if taxes are owed, the government will not accept silver—only its own currency.
This highlights a frequently misunderstood aspect of fiat money. It isn’t “backed by nothing.” Its value lies in granting access to participate fully in the issuing country’s economy.
If that seems abstract, think of a work or residency permit. Without it, economic participation is limited and costly. With it, participation becomes smoother, safer, and more efficient. Currency functions similarly.
Now ask yourself: which currency would most likely be accepted almost anywhere in the world—from a remote market to a major city?
A crisp $100 US bill would probably be welcomed in more places than most alternatives. This isn’t because the paper itself has special intrinsic value. It reflects the network effect: what is already widely recognized and used carries greater practical utility than lesser-known options.
No single form of money perfectly combines store of value, ease of exchange, universal acceptance, and low friction. Searching for one flawless form is probably futile. Instead, currencies that provide:
Access to the largest economic sphere,
The strongest network effect and recognition, and
Reliable price discovery with relatively stable value
That will tend to have higher utility and lower transaction costs than competing alternatives.
Demand for a currency arises from multiple sources: the desire to preserve value, the need to transact, and the appeal of participating in the broadest economic network.
State-issued money has another distinctive trait: its supply can expand or contract. If supply grows more slowly than demand, purchasing power can rise—just as with any other commodity.
Supply is easier to measure than demand, which reflects the collective decisions of millions seeking safety, liquidity, efficiency, and opportunity.
The argument for continued US dollar dominance rests on its imperfect but still advantageous blend of features: relatively transparent pricing, low-friction transactions, powerful global network effects, and access to the world’s largest economic system.
These strengths are not merely products of short-term central bank policies. They reflect the broader framework of governance, institutions, economic depth, social trust, and cultural influence behind the issuing state.
If global uncertainty increases, demand for such a currency could outpace supply. As demand rises and network effects strengthen, a self-reinforcing cycle may emerge—supporting, rather than undermining, the dollar’s supremacy.
Money behaves in peculiar ways. We often assume we fully understand it, and even when we’re convinced a currency is about to collapse, it somehow endures—and sometimes even outperforms expectations.
The goal here isn’t to make a prediction. Rather, it’s to remain open-minded about currency as both a social construct and a vessel of utility value.
Bitcoin Cash slipped below the $500 mark on Tuesday, extending losses after plunging 13% in the previous session.
Hyperliquid fell another 1% on Tuesday, marking its fourth straight day of declines following Monday’s sharp 9% drop.
Pump.fun also came under pressure, sliding beneath a key psychological support level after tumbling 11% on Monday.
Altcoins such as Bitcoin Cash (BCH), Hyperliquid (HYPE), and Pump.fun (PUMP) have led declines over the past 24 hours as Bitcoin slipped below the $64,000 level on Tuesday. Technical indicators for BCH, HYPE, and PUMP point to further downside risks amid broad-based market selling.
The wider cryptocurrency market remains under strain as Donald Trump explores new legal avenues, citing national security concerns, to introduce additional tariffs. Meanwhile, U.S. equities ended Monday’s session in negative territory, adding to the cautious tone across risk assets.
CoinMarketCap’s Fear and Greed Index has dropped to 11, signaling extreme fear in the market and underscoring that sellers remain firmly in control.
Bitcoin Cash slips beneath the $500 mark
Bitcoin Cash was trading below the $500 level on Tuesday, extending losses after plunging 13% in the prior session. The altcoin has slipped beneath its 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $544, while the 50-day EMA — now trending lower at $555 — is approaching a potential death cross formation.
Technically, the path of least resistance appears tilted to the downside, with the next key support seen around $443, corresponding to the October 17 low.
Daily chart indicators reinforce the bearish momentum shift. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has dropped to 36, edging closer to oversold territory as selling pressure intensifies. Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) has crossed below its signal line, signaling a bearish crossover.
BCH/USDT
If Bitcoin Cash reclaims the $500 psychological barrier with a strong daily close above it, selling pressure could begin to fade, potentially paving the way for a rebound toward the 200-day EMA near $544.
Hyperliquid was trading below $26 on Tuesday, extending losses after falling 9% in the previous session. The HYPE token has now declined for a fourth straight day and remains well under both its 50-day EMA at $29.08 and 200-day EMA at $32.37, reinforcing a bearish outlook.
On the daily chart, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 38 and continues to trend lower, with further room before entering oversold territory. Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) and its signal line are steadily declining, with widening bearish histogram bars signaling strengthening downside momentum.
Immediate support levels are seen at $23.58, marking the December 21 low, followed by $20.82, the October 10 low.
HYPE/USDT
On the upside, Hyperliquid would need to break back above its 50-day EMA at $29.08 to revive short-term bullish momentum and signal the start of a potential recovery.
Pump.fun slides toward all-time low amid heavy selling
Pump.fun was trading around $0.001800 at the time of writing on Tuesday, after tumbling 11% in the previous session. The meme-coin launchpad token has continued its broader downtrend since late September and is now eyeing support at $0.001678 — a level that previously sparked a rebound on February 6.
A firm break and close below this support could open the door to further losses toward the S2 pivot at $0.001199.
Momentum indicators point to mounting downside pressure. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits at 37, hovering just above oversold territory and reflecting persistent selling interest. Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) and its signal line have resumed a downward trajectory following a bearish crossover on Monday, indicating renewed negative momentum.
PUMP/USDT
If Pump.fun climbs back above the S1 pivot at $0.001945, it may pave the way for a move toward the 50-day EMA near $0.002300, potentially easing near-term bearish pressure.
Bitcoin falls beneath the lower boundary of its consolidation range on Monday, and a decisive close below this level could open the door to a more pronounced correction.
Ethereum drops under $1,900, marking a continuation of its six-week decline.
XRP dips below $1.40, unable to hold support at the lower edge of its trendline channel.
Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH), and Ripple (XRP) continue to weaken on Monday after posting modest losses last week. BTC has slipped beneath the $65,000 consolidation floor, while ETH has fallen under $1,900, both marking a sixth consecutive week of declines. Meanwhile, XRP drops below $1.40, failing to hold support at its lower trendline — collectively signaling the risk of a deeper correction across the top three cryptocurrencies.
Bitcoin breaks below consolidation support
Bitcoin had been trading within a sideways range between $65,729 and $71,746 since February 7. On Monday, BTC moved below the lower boundary of this range, changing hands near $64,700.
A confirmed daily close beneath $65,729 would strengthen the bearish case and could open the path toward the next major support around $60,000.
On the daily chart, the RSI stands at 31, hovering close to oversold territory and reflecting strong downside momentum. Meanwhile, the MACD lines are tightening, suggesting growing indecision in the market.
BTC/USDT
However, if BTC manages to reclaim and hold above the $65,729 level, a rebound toward the upper boundary of the range at $71,746 remains possible.
Ethereum extends its correction
Ethereum continued to edge lower last week, prolonging its slide that began in mid-January. As of Monday, ETH is down 4.77%, trading around $1,864.
A daily close beneath the lower consolidation boundary at $1,747 would reinforce the bearish outlook and could drive prices toward the next key support at $1,669.
Similar to Bitcoin, Ethereum’s RSI points to strengthening downside momentum, while the MACD lines are narrowing, reflecting growing uncertainty among market participants.
ETH/USDT
On the flip side, a recovery from current levels could see ETH rebound toward the upper end of its consolidation range near $2,149.
XRP deepens its pullback after breaking below key lower trendline support.
XRP is hovering below $1.40 on Monday after slipping beneath the lower boundary of a falling wedge pattern.
Should the pullback persist, the token may slide further toward the weekly support around $1.30.
Similar to Bitcoin and Ethereum, XRP’s RSI points to building bearish pressure, while the MACD lines are tightening, signaling trader uncertainty.
XRP/USDT
On the other hand, if price manages to reclaim and hold the lower trendline as support, a rebound toward the psychological $1.50 level could follow.
The US dollar at one stage surged sharply against the Mexican peso, but by week’s end it had given back some of those gains. The 17.00 area below continues to act as a key support zone, and a decisive break beneath it could open the door for a move toward 16.50.
While short-term bounces are possible, the broader setup suggests selling into strength. The 17.50 region remains a significant resistance barrier, and the wide interest rate differential still strongly favors the Mexican peso.
S&P 500
The S&P 500 pulled back early in the week but appears to be stabilizing as it continues to trade within a broader consolidation range. Since early December, price action has been confined between 6,800 and 7,000, suggesting a market building momentum for its next major move.
The bias still leans to the upside. A decisive daily close above 7,000 could trigger a stronger breakout and accelerate gains. On the other hand, a breakdown below 6,800 would signal a shift in tone and mark a more bearish development.
EUR/USD
The euro declined notably over the course of the week, but it continues to find buyers near the 1.18 level, making that area especially important to watch. Given the current structure, caution is warranted when trading this pair.
Price action appears largely range-bound, with 1.18 acting as a central pivot or magnet. Resistance stands near 1.1850, while solid support can be found around 1.1750, reinforcing the broader sideways pattern.
USD/CAD
The US dollar has advanced against the Canadian dollar, but price action remains choppy around the 1.3750 zone — an area that has repeatedly proven significant. The pair appears to be oscillating as traders assess whether momentum can build for a sustained move higher.
A decisive push and hold above 1.3750 would signal renewed strength for the US dollar. Conversely, a breakdown below 1.35 would represent a notably bearish shift in sentiment.
Major Technical Support and Resistance Levels
Gold (XAU/USD)
Gold remains choppy, initially easing back during the week, yet buyers continue to emerge on dips, stepping in whenever prices soften. The 4,800 level appears to be firm support, while the 5,000 mark is likely to act as a psychological magnet for price action.
The broader bias still favors buying pullbacks, with the expectation of an eventual move higher. However, volatility may persist after the sharp turbulence seen in recent weeks, following what had previously been a near one-way surge. Over the longer term, a retest of the highs seems plausible, though it will likely require patience amid ongoing fluctuations.
Bitcoin (BTC)
The Bitcoin market is still searching for renewed upside momentum, but the encouraging development is that price action has at least stabilized. Given the prolonged weakness seen in recent periods, simple stability is a constructive step forward for the market.
The $60,000 level remains a crucial support zone and a major psychological benchmark. Holding above this area is essential if Bitcoin is to maintain any realistic prospect of a sustained recovery.
USD/JPY
The US dollar posted solid gains against the Japanese yen over the week, with the ¥152 level continuing to provide strong support. The 50-week EMA is positioned just beneath that area, reinforcing the floor and encouraging dip-buying as the interest rate differential remains in favor of the US dollar.
With the Bank of Japan maintaining its current policy stance, there appears to be little immediate catalyst for a structural shift. As a result, the pair may be entering a consolidation range between ¥152 on the downside and ¥158 on the upside. A decisive move above ¥160 would represent a significant breakout, clearing a resistance zone that has been in place since 1990.
GBP/USD
The British pound declined sharply during the week, dropping to test the 1.35 level — a large, round psychological threshold that has proven important on multiple occasions. The fact that buyers are attempting to defend this area is at least a constructive short-term signal.
However, recent UK economic data has been somewhat underwhelming. As a result, sterling may currently be one of the weaker major currencies against the US dollar. This pair deserves close monitoring, as broader dollar strength could translate into pronounced downside pressure here, potentially making GBP/USD particularly vulnerable.
Cryptocurrency markets moved within a tight range late in the week as traders remained cautious ahead of important U.S. inflation and growth releases. According to Nexo analyst Iliya Kalchev, broader macro uncertainty continues to guide investor sentiment.
Bitcoin held just above the $68,000 mark, while Ethereum struggled to push past $2,000, signaling selective positioning rather than a broad return to risk appetite. A more guarded macro tone has emerged in recent days, with hawkish cues from the Federal Reserve’s January meeting minutes pressuring risk assets and strengthening the view that interest rate cuts may come later than previously anticipated.
Geopolitical concerns have further shaped market behavior. Heightened tensions involving the U.S. and Iran have driven demand for traditional safe havens such as the U.S. dollar and gold, while capping gains in liquidity-driven assets like cryptocurrencies.
Kalchev highlighted that U.S.-listed Bitcoin ETFs posted around $165 million in net outflows, and Ethereum ETFs saw roughly $130 million withdrawn. These flows reflect a broader sense of institutional caution as investors recalibrate exposure amid persistent macro volatility.
Bitcoin remains in a consolidation phase following its early-February pullback, even as underlying network metrics improve. Mining difficulty has risen notably, and hashrate levels have recovered, pointing to structural strength despite muted price action. Still, analysts note that the asset remains highly responsive to macro signals—particularly inflation data that could influence Federal Reserve policy expectations.
Outside of crypto, financial markets have displayed uneven risk appetite. Gold is trading near record highs, and the dollar is on course for a strong weekly advance as investors hedge against geopolitical instability and interest rate uncertainty.
Looking ahead, market participants are closely watching upcoming U.S. Core PCE inflation data and GDP figures. These releases could determine whether digital assets break out of their current consolidation range or continue moving sideways. While regulatory progress on stablecoin legislation may serve as a longer-term structural driver, Kalchev emphasized that near-term price movements will likely remain tied to macro developments and investor positioning.
Bitcoin edged higher on Friday, drawing some support from dip-buying after recent losses, though overall sentiment toward cryptocurrencies remained weighed down by uncertainty over U.S. interest rates and rising geopolitical tensions.
The world’s largest digital asset was still on track for a weekly decline, as a short-lived rebound from last week quickly lost momentum. Bitcoin has also fallen roughly 25% so far in 2026.
Bitcoin climbed to $67,843.1 by 01:21 ET (06:21 GMT). Despite the modest uptick, it was down 2.8% for the week and poised to register losses in five of the past seven weeks.
Rate uncertainty intensifies ahead of PCE, GDP data
Bitcoin and the broader crypto market extended declines this week as demand for speculative assets weakened amid growing doubts about the U.S. rate outlook.
Concerns escalated after minutes from the Federal Reserve’s January meeting revealed that several policymakers supported keeping the door open to further rate hikes to counter inflation risks — a backdrop that typically pressures high-risk assets.
A string of mixed inflation and labor market reports has further clouded expectations for monetary policy. Cryptocurrencies are particularly sensitive to higher interest rates, as they tend to perform better in environments flush with liquidity.
Investors are now awaiting December’s Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index — the Fed’s preferred inflation measure — due later Friday, along with fourth-quarter gross domestic product data, both of which could shape longer-term rate expectations.
Iran tensions dent risk appetite
Risk sentiment was also dampened by escalating geopolitical strains between the U.S. and Iran. President Donald Trump reiterated threats of military action if Tehran fails to agree to a nuclear deal, while multiple reports indicated Washington is weighing several military options and has increased its regional presence.
The heightened tensions curbed appetite for riskier assets such as Bitcoin, prompting some traders to favor traditional safe havens including the U.S. dollar and gold.
Altcoins head for weekly losses
Broader crypto markets traded in a narrow range on Friday, with most major altcoins also facing another week of declines.
The second-largest cryptocurrency, Ethereum, slipped 1.5% to $1,954.09 and was set for a 6.2% weekly drop.
XRP and BNB were down around 6% and 3% for the week, respectively, while Cardano and Solana were on track for losses of roughly 5% to 7%.
Among meme tokens, Dogecoin was headed for an 11% weekly decline.
The Chinese Spring Festival (Chinese New Year) holiday is now underway, a period that has historically coincided with softer fiat-denominated gold prices.
Meanwhile, gold is carving out a consolidation range between $4,400 and $5,600. The longer price action remains compressed within this band, the more constructive the setup becomes.
Extended consolidation typically builds pressure — increasing the probability of an eventual upside breakout and a potential rally toward $6,800.
Here’s another perspective on the price action. Notice the channel outlined by the dotted blue trendlines.
Gold has broken decisively above that channel and now seems to be digesting the move, consolidating gains after the breakout.
Seasonal softness across the metals complex could linger until the Chinese holiday concludes. For enthusiastic Western gold investors, this pullback phase may present an opportunity to increase exposure to gold, silver, and mining equities.
I’ve outlined what I call an emerging “gold bull era,” driven less by Western fear-based demand and more by the structural economic ascent of China and India—an expansion powerful enough to overshadow the West’s traditional crisis trade.
This new phase could also unfold alongside rapid automation, with hundreds of millions of robots taking on work that inflation-strained populations—both East and West—are increasingly burdened by.
In such an environment, widespread income support could evolve into significantly higher baseline incomes, and gold-oriented Asian consumers may expand their purchases well beyond already robust levels.
In the West, the backdrop looks increasingly fragile. Job growth in 2025 has been minimal, with the latest ADP data showing only around 22,000 positions added in January.
By contrast, the official government report showed a gain of 130,000 jobs. That wide gap raises questions—either the data contains significant distortions, or much of the hiring is concentrated in government roles funded by expanding public debt.
The core fear-trade argument is straightforward: if private-sector job creation continues to stall while debt-financed employment props up the headline numbers, underlying economic weakness may deepen.
Unless productivity gains from automation are formally reflected in economic measurements, the strain between slowing human employment and rising fiscal burdens could intensify.
For investors focused on hedging systemic risk, the question becomes familiar: is your portfolio positioned with assets designed to weather instability?
How about silver? The head-and-shoulders top currently forming is a bearish technical pattern pointing toward the $20 area. What might invalidate this setup?
A rally to $87 would push silver back above three of the shoulders in the formation. An additional climb to $93 would fully invalidate the pattern and deal a severe blow to heavily leveraged bears.
Being a pure silver bug—someone almost entirely invested in silver—demands serious conviction and resilience. For the average investor newly drawn to this remarkable metal, it’s wise to keep ample cash on hand to take advantage of unexpected price pullbacks.
What about the miners? On the CDNX daily chart, the RSI and Stochastics are showing positive signals, but the key 20,40,10 MACD is still sluggish and lacking momentum. If that indicator begins to strengthen, the uptrend in junior mining stocks should pick back up.
The CDNX weekly chart looks impressive. The base formation is strong and likely signals further upside not only for juniors, but also for intermediate and senior mining companies.
The most probable near-term outlook is a brief pause as Chinese investors step back for the New Year holiday, followed by a solid rally into April for the mining sector. After that, a seasonal consolidation through the summer seems likely, before a powerful, decisive breakout above the 1177 highs.
In the meantime, many individual mining stocks could “front-run” the CDNX, advancing to fresh highs ahead of the broader index.
Looking at the long-term chart of the VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF versus gold, mining stocks appear strikingly undervalued—arguably the cheapest sector relative to its underlying asset in modern market history.
The encouraging part is that this imbalance may be only months away from correcting through the only reset that truly counts: a major revaluation of gold equities relative to gold itself.
The weekly chart of Lundin Gold is particularly compelling. While most gold producers report all-in sustaining costs (AISC) below $2,000 per ounce—and silver producers around $20—Lundin’s AISC is closer to $1,000, underscoring its strong cost position. Still, even the most efficient miners require periodic technical pauses. The behavior of the key 5 and 15 moving averages highlights these natural consolidation phases.
Pullbacks across the mining sector—both juniors and seniors—can offer strategic entry points, especially as gold continues to consolidate following its broader fundamental breakout.
Some investors even speculate that the fiat price of gold could eventually exceed that of Bitcoin, viewing bitcoin primarily as a liquidity vehicle to accumulate more gold. Over time, rising global demand—particularly from China—could further reinforce gold’s long-term appeal.
Sui remains under pressure near $0.96 as its technical outlook continues to weaken. The upcoming launch of the Grayscale Sui Staking ETF on Wednesday will give investors exposure to the Sui Network’s native token. However, subdued retail participation — with futures Open Interest hovering just above $500 million — could restrain any meaningful breakout attempt.
Sui (SUI) has extended its decline for a second straight session, trading around $0.95 at the time of writing on Wednesday. The Layer-1 token has dropped more than 16% in February and is down roughly 34% year-to-date, mirroring the broader bearish tone across the crypto market.
Technically, Sui risks prolonging its downtrend amid weak retail engagement. While support at $0.87 remains intact for now, a decisive break below this level could open the door for a pullback toward the $0.79 demand zone.
Grayscale’s Sui Staking ETF begins trading
Grayscale Investments has confirmed the launch of its Sui Staking Exchange-Traded Fund (ETF), set to start trading Wednesday. The fund is listed on NYSE Arca under the ticker GSUI, following the conversion of the former Grayscale Sui Trust. The ETF is expected to hold SUI tokens and incorporate staking.
According to Grayscale, while purchasing shares does not constitute direct ownership of SUI, the product is structured to offer a cost-efficient and accessible way for investors to gain exposure to the token.
The Bank of New York Mellon will act as the trust’s transfer agent and administrator. Coinbase, Inc. will serve as prime broker, while Coinbase Custody Trust Company will function as custodian.
Investors can purchase shares only in creation blocks of 10,000 units or more.
Despite the ETF debut, retail demand for Sui remains muted. Futures Open Interest has slipped to $512 million on Wednesday from $554 million on Sunday, signaling limited appetite for new positions. The stagnation suggests traders remain unconvinced about the token’s ability to sustain a meaningful recovery, opting instead to scale back exposure.
Technical outlook: Sui’s downtrend remains intact
Sui is trading around $0.95, still capped below the declining 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $1.28, maintaining a bearish medium-term outlook. The 100-day EMA at $1.58 and the 200-day EMA at $2.02 are also trending lower, continuing to limit recovery attempts.
On the daily chart, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits at 36, below the neutral 50 level, signaling persistent weakness. A sustained pickup in buying pressure could help improve momentum. However, if the RSI drifts further into oversold territory, the decline may accelerate toward support near $0.78 — in line with the February 6 low.
A decisive break above descending trendline resistance would create scope for a move toward the 100-day EMA at $1.58. Conversely, failure to extend any rebound would leave the broader downtrend firmly in control.
Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram has turned positive and is gradually expanding, showing the MACD line above the signal line near the zero threshold — an early sign of strengthening momentum. The Parabolic SAR, positioned at $0.86 below the current price, also suggests a tentative stabilization attempt.
Four months ago, the digital asset market experienced what I consider its most significant liquidation event to date. On October 10, 2025, more than $19 billion in leveraged positions were erased within a matter of hours. Bitcoin tumbled from around $122,000 to $105,000, and over 1.6 million trader accounts were forced into liquidation.
The so-called “10/10” crypto crash did more than shake prices—it reshaped the psychological backdrop of crypto investing.
As I mentioned on PreMarket Prep last week, from a technical perspective Bitcoin is currently trading about two standard deviations below its 20-day average—a condition that has appeared only three times in the past five years. Historically, such stretched readings have tended to precede short-term rebounds over the following 20 trading sessions.
The unwinding of the Japanese carry trade—estimated at roughly $500 billion—likely added to the weakness seen in January and again this month. Still, I believe much of that pressure has now run its course.
With Bitcoin still trading below $70,000—about 45% off its all-time high—some investors may be asking whether the events of October 10 are the reason the downturn has lingered.
The short answer is yes. But the deeper explanation is more complex—and, in my view, more relevant for portfolio positioning going forward.
What Really Happened
To put it in context, the 10/10 crash surpassed the FTX collapse in absolute dollar losses. It effectively overshadowed the failure of what had been the world’s second-largest crypto exchange. Binance alone reportedly drew $188 million from its insurance fund to cover bad debt, while several other trading platforms faced comparable strains.
As for the catalyst, many point to President Donald Trump’s announcement of a 100% tariff on Chinese imports, layered on top of an existing 30% levy.
That geopolitical jolt rattled global markets. But in crypto—where leverage is deeply embedded in the system—it transformed what might have been a routine correction into a cascading liquidation event.
The crash laid bare deep structural flaws in how exchanges were managing risk, with one platform in particular drawing scrutiny.
The Binance Factor
Star Xu, founder and CEO of OKX, recently posted a detailed breakdown on X outlining his view of how the 10/10 meltdown unfolded.
According to Xu, Binance rolled out an aggressive user acquisition push offering 12% APY on USDe, a synthetic dollar built on Ethereum. At the same time, the exchange permitted USDe to be posted as collateral under the same terms as established stablecoins such as Tether (USDT) and USD Coin (USDC).
Xu argues this created a distorted incentive structure. Users were enticed to swap USDT and USDC for USDe in pursuit of higher yields, often without fully appreciating the added risk profile.
A leverage loop soon followed. Traders converted USDT into USDe, pledged USDe as collateral to borrow more USDT, then recycled the borrowed funds back into USDe—repeating the process. Xu claims this dynamic drove advertised yields as high as 24%, 36%, and even above 70%.
When volatility surged, USDe quickly lost its peg, unleashing cascading liquidations. The market entered a classic doom loop: forced selling triggered margin calls, which in turn sparked further forced selling.
For its part, Binance has denied responsibility. Speaking at a crypto conference last week, co-CEO Richard Teng attributed the turmoil entirely to President Donald Trump’s tariff announcement. Still, allowing heavily leveraged positions in a market where stop-losses can be gamed and safeguards are thin creates systemic fragility. In such an environment, even a minor shock can ignite a chain reaction.
The Psychological Fallout
October 10 erased more than leveraged trades—it shattered investor confidence. The event coincided with Bitcoin peaking near $126,000 and sparked a wave of fear that continues to weigh on sentiment.
In the weeks that followed, ETFs saw meaningful outflows. Retail traders—many of whom had piled into futures and margin positions as Bitcoin hit record highs—were hit hardest. More than 1.6 million accounts were liquidated, a large share belonging to smaller participants.
This month’s follow-on decline, which marked Bitcoin’s largest realized loss on record as prices slid from $70,000 to $60,000, was described by one analyst as a “textbook capitulation.” The drop was swift, volume-heavy, and flushed out holders with the weakest conviction.
Why I’m Still Constructive
Despite persistent volatility, I remain long-term bullish because the underlying fundamentals remain intact.
Institutional participation continues to expand. Corporate Bitcoin treasuries—often referred to as Digital Asset Treasury (DAT) firms—now collectively control more than 1.1 million BTC, about 5.7% of total supply, valued near $90 billion. MicroStrategy (now operating as Strategy) alone holds roughly 3.5% of Bitcoin’s circulating supply.
Notably, institutions added around 43,000 BTC in January, even amid adverse price conditions—suggesting that long-term capital remains engaged despite the market’s recent turbulence.
The U.S. Strategic Bitcoin Reserve now reportedly holds more than 325,000 BTC—about 1.6% of total supply—making it the largest sovereign holder globally. At the same time, other nation-states are building positions, much as they do with gold, and major corporations continue to add to their allocations.
The Bottom Line
I’ve long described Bitcoin as “digital gold,” but I don’t believe it has fully evolved into a true safe-haven asset. For now, institutions largely categorize it as a risk-on asset rather than risk-off. That suggests it is still carving out its place within diversified portfolios.
Was October 10 the root cause of Bitcoin’s prolonged weakness? In my view, yes. The event delivered a structural shock that obliterated leveraged positions and forced a sweeping—if painful—deleveraging across the digital asset ecosystem.
Did aggressive marketing and flawed incentive structures at certain platforms worsen the fallout? Again, I would argue yes. Encouraging investors to treat what was effectively a tokenized hedge strategy as if it were a stablecoin—while layering on substantial leverage—inevitably magnified systemic risk.
As severe as the collapse was, it may ultimately prove constructive. Excess leverage often needs to be purged before a sustainable advance can resume. My sense is that we are nearing the final phase of that cleansing process.
Bitcoin declined on Monday, deepening its downturn after crypto markets posted four consecutive weeks of heavy losses, as interest-rate uncertainty continued to dampen appetite for riskier assets.
The largest cryptocurrency briefly touched $70,000 over the weekend before retreating. By 00:58 ET (05:58 GMT), Bitcoin was down 2.7% at $68,409.7.
Strategy says liquidation unlikely unless Bitcoin drops to $8,000
Strategy Inc (NASDAQ:MSTR), the biggest corporate holder of Bitcoin, said Sunday it can meet its debt obligations even if Bitcoin tumbles to $8,000. In a social media update, the company stated it could “withstand a drawdown in $BTC price to $8K and still have sufficient assets to fully cover our debt.”
The firm owns 714,644 Bitcoins, financed through a combination of equity issuance and long-term borrowing. Led by prominent Bitcoin advocate Michael Saylor, Strategy has continued accumulating coins in recent weeks despite the broader market slide.
Bitcoin has now erased about half its value since peaking near $126,000 in October, leading declines across speculative assets as traders grew cautious amid U.S. rate uncertainty.
Extended losses had fueled speculation that Strategy might be forced to sell part of its holdings to service debt, though Saylor has repeatedly downplayed such concerns. Earlier this month, the company reported a $12.4 billion loss for the December quarter, compared with a $670.8 million loss a year earlier. Aside from its substantial Bitcoin position, Strategy generates relatively limited operating revenue.
Broader digital assets also moved lower Monday in line with Bitcoin’s sustained slump. Ethereum fell 6.1% to $1,958.63, while XRP dropped 7.7% to $1.4575.
BNB declined about 4%, with Solana and Cardano sliding 5.4% and 6.2%, respectively.
Among meme tokens, Dogecoin tumbled 11.4%, while TRUMP slipped 2.4%.
Crypto sentiment has remained fragile since October, as both retail and institutional inflows slowed sharply. Meanwhile, a surge in gold prices amid speculative enthusiasm in precious metals has drawn attention away from Bitcoin, with investors favoring tangible assets.
Bitcoin snapped a four-session slide on Friday, climbing nearly 4%, though it remained on course for its first four-week losing streak since November 2025. The leading cryptocurrency was up 3.7% at $68,776.1 by 17:15 ET (22:15 GMT), after dropping close to $65,000 in the prior session.
Bitcoin pressured by tech slump as U.S. inflation eases.
While Friday’s rebound trimmed some weekly losses, Bitcoin was still headed for a roughly 0.6% decline, struggling to build lasting upside momentum after bouncing from earlier lows and drifting back toward last week’s $60,000 support zone.
Risk appetite has been fragile amid a prolonged selloff in technology stocks, driven by renewed concerns that artificial intelligence could disrupt traditional software and office-service business models. Those fears resurfaced on Thursday as investors questioned how automation and emerging AI tools might erode established revenue streams.
At the same time, fresh U.S. inflation data showed price pressures eased more than anticipated in January. According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, headline CPI rose 2.4% year-over-year, down from 2.7% in December, while core CPI increased 2.5%, matching forecasts.
On a monthly basis, headline CPI gained 0.2% and core CPI 0.3%, with the softer headline figure boosting expectations that the Federal Reserve could move toward policy easing. However, strong labor market data earlier in the week—highlighting solid payroll growth and a lower unemployment rate—had dampened hopes for near-term rate cuts.
Dessislava Ianeva of Nexo Dispatch noted that crypto markets appear to be stabilizing after the softer CPI reading, even as ETF outflows continue, with positioning data suggesting lower leverage and consolidation rather than a fresh directional breakout.
Crypto leaders appointed to CFTC Innovation Advisory Committee.
Separately, the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission appointed several prominent crypto executives to its new Innovation Advisory Committee, including Brian Armstrong of Coinbase, Brad Garlinghouse of Ripple, Vladimir Tenev of Robinhood, and Hayden Adams of Uniswap Labs.
The committee will advise on emerging technologies such as blockchain and AI in derivatives and crypto markets, as regulators clarify oversight of digital assets, with the CFTC expected to take a leading role.
Elsewhere in the market, altcoins also advanced. Ethereum jumped 5.4% to $2,049.07, XRP rose 2.8% to $1.40, Solana surged 8.3%, Cardano gained 4.1%, and Dogecoin added 4.7%.
Bitcoin has fallen roughly 50% from its October 2025 peak near $126,000 and is now trading around $65,000, marking a far deeper retracement than a routine correction. This downturn reflects not just price volatility but a broader shift in the macro backdrop and crypto’s structural dynamics.
Macro Pressures Reshape the Cycle
As institutional participation has increased, Bitcoin has become more tightly linked to global financial conditions. Rather than acting as “digital gold,” it has moved in closer correlation with U.S. equities—especially technology stocks. Ongoing uncertainty about the pace of disinflation, combined with renewed tariff measures from the Trump Administration targeting Europe and Asia, has strengthened the U.S. dollar and dampened overall risk appetite. Concerns that the artificial intelligence boom may be maturing have further pressured growth assets, including crypto.
Miner Stress and Institutional Retreat
On-chain and industry data reveal mounting supply-side pressure. With the estimated average mining cost around $87,000, many miners are operating below breakeven at current price levels. To stay solvent, some have been liquidating reserves, adding persistent sell-side pressure to the market.
Institutional flows tell a similar story. Roughly $5 billion has exited Bitcoin ETFs in recent weeks, signaling a rotation into safer assets. Meanwhile, reports of operational pauses at certain established crypto platforms have revived memories of the 2022 bankruptcy wave, further unsettling sentiment.
The Crypto Fear and Greed Index remains entrenched in the 5–8 range—classified as “extreme fear”—highlighting the depth of caution across the market.
The Technical Road Ahead
For sentiment to meaningfully reset, Bitcoin must reclaim the $70,000–$78,000 zone, which now represents a critical resistance band. A sustained move above that range would signal renewed confidence and potentially mark the beginning of a recovery phase. Until then, macro headwinds, miner capitulation risks, and fragile investor psychology are likely to continue defining the tone of this cycle.
Bitcoin Technical Outlook
On the daily chart, Bitcoin is attempting to stabilize in a critical technical zone. After sliding to roughly $60,000 last week, price rebounded, but the recovery stalled near $70,000 as sellers re-emerged. Over the past week, Bitcoin has remained below its 8-day EMA, signaling short-term weakness and keeping the broader technical bias cautious.
The $62,800 area—aligned with the Fibonacci 1.272 extension—now stands out as key support. The earlier bounce from $60,000 suggests buyers are active in this region and view it as a potential base. However, a daily close below that level could accelerate downside pressure, exposing the next major support near $55,000, around the Fibonacci 1.414 extension.
One constructive signal comes from momentum indicators. On the daily timeframe, the Stochastic RSI is showing positive divergence: while price has continued to drift lower, the indicator has turned upward from oversold territory. This often signals waning downside momentum and can precede sharp countertrend rallies, including short squeezes or bear traps. Still, for a rebound to evolve into a durable recovery, Bitcoin must reclaim key resistance levels and short-term moving averages. Until then, the market remains delicately balanced between support and renewed selling.
Critical Resistance Levels for a Trend Reversal
A sustained recovery would first require a decisive break above the psychological $70,000 level, ideally accompanied by strong trading volume. Without volume confirmation, upside moves may lack conviction.
A more robust trend reversal signal would come from breaking the descending trendline and reclaiming the Fibonacci 1.0 level near $76,350. The broader $76,000–$78,000 band represents a major technical barrier. Unless Bitcoin can firmly establish itself above this zone, rallies are likely to remain corrective within a broader medium-term downtrend.
Is a Short Squeeze Setup Building?
Bitcoin futures funding rates are hovering around -0.006%, indicating short positioning dominates. When leverage becomes skewed heavily to one side, sharp counter-moves often follow as liquidity is cleared. Combined with the positive Stochastic RSI divergence, this creates the potential for a swift spike toward $70,000.
Zooming out, Bitcoin appears to be navigating a capitulation phase marked by ETF outflows, miner pressure, and macro uncertainty. At the same time, some technical signals hint at a cleansing process that could reset positioning.
A conservative stance would wait for weekly closes above $78,000 before declaring a structural recovery. More tactical traders may view the Stoch RSI divergence as an opportunity for a move toward $70,000, with $62,800 serving as a clear risk threshold.
As the crypto sector enters what looks like a period of corporate restructuring in early 2026, the $55,000 region could eventually be seen as a longer-term base—if stabilization holds. Until stronger confirmation emerges, disciplined risk management remains critical: reduced leverage, smaller position sizing, and strict stop-loss levels are essential in this highly volatile environment.
Total Bitcoin futures open interest has fallen to $34 billion as of Thursday, marking a 28% drop over the past month. However, this decline appears largely driven by price effects rather than a reduction in leverage. When measured in Bitcoin terms, open interest remains broadly unchanged at 502,450 BTC, indicating that underlying demand for leveraged exposure is still intact.
Over the past two weeks, forced liquidations have reached $5.2 billion, contributing significantly to the contraction in nominal dollar terms. Meanwhile, options markets show a 22% bearish skew, and funding rates continue to stay below the 12% threshold, suggesting that sentiment remains cautious but not excessively overheated.
Bitcoin Diverges from Traditional Markets
Bitcoin has declined 28% over the past month, even as gold surged back above the $5,000 psychological threshold and the S&P 500 remains just 1% shy of its record high. This growing divergence has prompted investors to question what is driving crypto’s relative weakness. One possible explanation lies in softer US labor data, with the economy adding only 181,000 jobs in 2025—falling short of expectations.
In derivatives markets, sentiment remains cautious. The annualized funding rate on Bitcoin futures has stayed below the neutral 12% benchmark for four straight months, reflecting persistent risk aversion. Options markets show even stronger defensive positioning, as the delta skew on Deribit climbed to 22%. This suggests traders are paying a notable premium for protective put options. Under typical conditions, the skew fluctuates between -6% and +6%, signaling more balanced sentiment.
Despite the bearish tone in derivatives, institutional participation appears steady. US-listed Bitcoin ETFs are recording average daily trading volumes of $5.4 billion, challenging narratives of fading institutional interest. Ultimately, Bitcoin’s near-term rebound may hinge on clearer signals about the direction of the US labor market and broader macroeconomic stability.
If you’ve been tracking currency markets, you’ve likely seen the Japanese yen advance for three straight sessions, trading near the 153 JPY/USD level. This move isn’t random—it reflects deeper shifts in forex positioning and strategic reallocations by Japanese investment funds.
Despite stronger-than-expected U.S. employment data, the yen has gained ground. The key driver appears to be a rotation in positioning: Japanese hedge funds and institutional investors have closed out prior bearish bets on the yen and are now positioning for further appreciation. This shift highlights a broader change in sentiment and confidence within the currency market.
What’s Fueling the Move?
The primary catalyst is renewed buying interest from Japanese funds. After unwinding short-yen trades, they are now building long positions, anticipating continued strength. Market perceptions of the Japanese government and the Bank of Japan’s commitment to currency stability are also contributing to this shift.
While U.S. macroeconomic indicators—such as payroll data—often dominate headlines, this episode shows that capital flows and institutional positioning can at times outweigh even strong economic releases.
Authorities Remain Vigilant
Japan’s top foreign exchange official, Junichi Mimura, has emphasized that authorities are closely monitoring currency developments and maintaining active communication with U.S. counterparts. This ongoing dialogue signals a commitment to orderly market conditions.
For traders and investors, this reinforces an important point: currency movements are shaped not only by data, but also by policy signals, market psychology, and cross-border coordination.
Sentiment and USD/JPY Positioning
Recent trends indicate softer demand for USD/JPY hedging, suggesting rising confidence in the yen’s near-term outlook. Shifts in options activity often provide insight into market expectations and potential support or resistance zones.
Whether you’re a short-term trader or a longer-term investor, staying attuned to these sentiment indicators can help refine entry points and risk management strategies.
How to Navigate Yen Volatility
Monitor official communication: Watch statements from Japanese policymakers and central bank officials.
Apply technical analysis: Pay attention to key levels around 153 JPY/USD for potential breakout or reversal signals.
Control risk exposure: Use stop-loss strategies to guard against sharp counter-moves.
Diversify allocations: Avoid overexposure to a single currency pair by balancing across assets.
Why It Matters
The yen’s recent strength reflects more than price action—it represents shifting expectations, institutional flows, and evolving policy narratives. Understanding these dynamics can sharpen your broader market perspective and improve decision-making.
In forex, staying informed is a competitive advantage. By tracking positioning trends, official commentary, and sentiment signals, you can better anticipate market turns and respond with confidence.
Bitcoin remained under pressure on Thursday as investors stayed cautious and its divergence from the rallying stock market widened. The BTC/USD pair slipped below 68,000, a sharp decline from its year-to-date peak of 126,300.
The pullback came even as US equities extended their strong advance, with the Dow Jones reaching a record high. The decline followed the release of solid US labor market data. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the economy added more than 130,000 jobs, while the unemployment rate eased to 4.3%. However, some analysts cautioned that the figures could be revised lower, as has happened previously.
Indeed, revisions to last year’s employment data revealed that job growth averaged 15,000 per month, significantly below the initially reported 49,000 average.
Bitcoin also weakened amid a continued drop in futures open interest, which has fallen to $45 billion from last year’s peak of over $95 billion—an indication that market participation and demand have cooled.
Additional pressure followed warnings from the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) about the US government’s unsustainable fiscal trajectory. The deficit is projected to rise by $4.7 trillion over the next decade. Increased immigration-related spending, estimated at more than $500 billion, is cited as one contributing factor, while Trump’s tariffs are expected to generate approximately $3 trillion in revenue.
BTC/USD Technical Analysis
On the daily chart, BTC/USD remains in a pronounced downtrend, sliding from its October high of 126,300 to around 67,665. The decline persists despite continued accumulation by large holders.
Technically, Bitcoin is trading below both the 50-day and 100-day Exponential Moving Averages, as well as the Supertrend indicator, reinforcing the bearish bias. The MACD has crossed below the zero line, while the Relative Strength Index hovers near 30, suggesting weak momentum and near-oversold conditions.
The most probable scenario is a continued decline toward the key support level at 60,000. Conversely, a break above the major resistance at 72,000 would negate the bearish outlook and signal the potential for renewed upside momentum.
Bitcoin hovered around $67,000 during Thursday’s Asian session, showing little movement as investors weighed stronger-than-expected U.S. jobs data that reduced hopes for an imminent Federal Reserve rate cut. The leading cryptocurrency edged up 0.4% to $67,102.8 but remained below the crucial $70,000 threshold, with trading subdued amid thinner liquidity conditions.
After bouncing back from a steep drop toward $60,000 earlier this month, Bitcoin has struggled to rebuild bullish momentum.
Robust U.S. jobs data tempers rate-cut expectations; CPI in focus
Figures released Wednesday showed U.S. nonfarm payrolls rose more than anticipated in January, highlighting ongoing strength in the labor market. The unemployment rate stayed near multi-month lows, and wage growth remained solid—reinforcing expectations that the Fed may keep interest rates elevated for longer.
In response, traders scaled back bets on a near-term rate cut, with market pricing now suggesting lower chances of easing before June. Prolonged higher rates tend to pressure risk-sensitive assets like cryptocurrencies.
Market participants are now looking ahead to weekly jobless claims data due later Thursday for additional insight into labor conditions. Friday’s U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) report will also be closely watched for signals on inflation and the Fed’s policy path.
Bitcoin’s continued failure to break above $70,000 underscores cautious sentiment and lingering volatility following its recent decline, keeping prices largely range-bound.
Crypto liquidity provider BlockFills has reportedly paused client withdrawals amid a sharp downturn in digital asset prices, according to multiple media outlets on Wednesday.
The Financial Times and other sources said the suspension, which began last week, aims to safeguard both clients and the company during turbulent market conditions while restoring liquidity on the platform.
Clients are reportedly still able to trade spot and derivatives under certain restrictions.
BlockFills serves over 2,000 institutional clients and processed more than $60 billion in trading volume in 2025, the FT noted. The move echoes similar steps taken by crypto firms during previous market slumps.
Crypto prices today: Altcoins edge higher in sideways trade
Most major altcoins posted modest gains Thursday amid range-bound trading.
Ethereum, the second-largest cryptocurrency, rose 1.1% to $1,972.92, while XRP gained 1.6% to $1.38. Solana traded flat, whereas Cardano and Polygon each climbed 2.5%. Among meme coins, Dogecoin advanced 2.2%.
The total cryptocurrency market capitalization has fallen about 10% over the past week to roughly $2.36 trillion. Paradoxically, this also marks a 10% rebound from Friday’s lows. Despite that uptick, near-term prospects remain uncertain, as the recovery stalled over the weekend and met selling pressure around the $2.4 trillion level. This suggests the move may have been a temporary bounce within a broader decline that has yet to fully run its course.
The sentiment index dropped to 6 over the weekend, matching the lows seen on June 18–19, 2022, and only falling lower once before, on August 22, 2019. By Monday, it had rebounded to 14 in line with market prices, but this remains an extremely depressed level and does not yet support confident buying.
Bitcoin recovered steadily on Friday after an early sharp sell-off, but from Saturday onward it encountered strong resistance around the $71,000 level. Significant supply remains in the market from investors looking to exit on rebounds, suggesting persistent selling pressure. Under these conditions, the possibility of a fresh test of the 200-week moving average in the near term should not be ruled out.
The decline in Bitcoin prices has been accompanied by shrinking liquidity, heightened volatility, weaker risk appetite, and a stronger correlation with equity markets. CryptoQuant suggests BTC could drop to around $54,600, a level at which the market may shift from capitulation toward accumulation.
Amid the broader crypto sell-off, Strategy reported a net loss of $12.6 billion for the fourth quarter, with operating losses totaling $17.4 billion. CEO Fong Le said the company would only face debt-servicing risks in the event of an extreme Bitcoin collapse to about $8,000.
Cardano founder Charles Hoskinson disclosed unrealized losses exceeding $3 billion, while emphasizing that he has no plans to liquidate his holdings even if market conditions deteriorate further.
Bitcoin miners are increasingly shutting down operations as losses mount. Mining profitability has fallen to record lows due to declining crypto prices and higher electricity costs, with JPMorgan estimating the average cost of mining at roughly $87,000 per BTC.
Following the latest adjustment, Bitcoin’s mining difficulty dropped 11.16% to 125.86 trillion, marking the steepest decline since 2021, when China banned cryptocurrency mining.
Despite the prevailing pessimism, JPMorgan remains constructive on Bitcoin’s long-term outlook, forecasting that it could eventually reach $266,000. The bank has also recently lifted its long-term gold price forecast to $8,000–8,500.
Bitcoin hovered above the $70,000 mark on Monday, stabilizing after a sharp rebound late last week from lows near $60,000, as investors reassessed risk appetite following widespread liquidations and shifted focus to key U.S. economic data due later in the week.
The world’s largest cryptocurrency was last up about 1.5% at $70,402.5 by 01:25 ET (06:25 GMT), moving further away from a roughly 16-month low of around $60,187 reached earlier in the week.
On Friday, Bitcoin surged back above $70,000, jumping more than 12% in a single session as rallies in technology stocks and precious metals lifted risk assets more broadly. The rebound was supported by bargain hunting after the steep selloff, alongside signs of stabilisation across global markets.
Bitcoin’s sharp decline last week reflected a broader risk-off environment, driven by a selloff in U.S. technology shares — especially AI-related stocks — and forced liquidations in crypto futures markets, which intensified downward pressure.
Ongoing outflows from Bitcoin spot ETFs and a pullback from leveraged positions were also seen as key contributors to the heightened volatility.
Japan election reinforces the shift in risk sentiment
Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s decisive election victory on Sunday reinforced her mandate to push ahead with fiscal stimulus and tax reductions. The landslide result lifted regional equities and was linked to a renewed appetite for risk across some global markets.
Although the yen initially weakened ahead of the vote, it later steadied alongside equity gains, helping to support broader market sentiment.
Attention is now turning to a series of important U.S. economic releases later this week, including delayed employment data due on Wednesday and the consumer price index report on Friday.
These figures are expected to shape expectations for the Federal Reserve’s policy path, with markets currently factoring in potential rate cuts later in 2026 should inflation cool and labour market momentum slow.
Crypto prices today: altcoins remain subdued after rebounding from recent lows
Most major altcoins moved within narrow ranges on Monday, showing limited follow-through after their recent rebound.
Ethereum, the world’s second-largest cryptocurrency, traded largely unchanged at $2,076.41. XRP, ranked third, edged 1.1% higher to $1.43.
Solana slipped marginally, while Cardano and Polygon were little changed on the day.
In the meme-token space, Dogecoin underperformed, falling about 2%.
Over the past year, market attention has largely centered on bitcoin’s price volatility and shifting investor sentiment. Headlines were dominated by discussions around regulation, adoption, and inflation. Meanwhile, a more subtle but potentially significant risk has been developing in the background: advances in quantum computing. Bitcoin has recently come under pressure as investors begin to factor in these concerns, prompting renewed debate over the cryptocurrency’s long-term security and durability.
Introduction
Rapid progress in quantum computing is raising fresh questions about the future security of blockchain-based systems. Bitcoin’s network depends on cryptographic algorithms to protect transactions and verify ownership, and researchers are increasingly examining whether sufficiently powerful quantum computers could one day compromise these safeguards.
These worries are no longer confined to academic circles. Christopher Wood, Jefferies’ global head of equity strategy, recently removed bitcoin from his model portfolio, citing the risk that breakthroughs in quantum computing could erode the cryptographic foundations underpinning the asset. He cautioned that any successful attack would call into question bitcoin’s credibility as a long-term store of value.
The Quantum Computing Threat
Quantum computing is widely viewed as the next major leap in computational technology. Traditional computers process information using binary bits—either a 0 or a 1. Quantum computers, by contrast, rely on quantum bits, or qubits, which can exist in multiple states simultaneously due to a phenomenon known as superposition. When combined with other quantum effects such as entanglement and interference, this capability allows quantum systems to solve certain classes of problems far more efficiently than classical machines.
Timothy Hollebeek, Industry Standards Strategist at DigiCert, offers a helpful analogy: classical computing is like navigating a maze by testing one route at a time, while a quantum computer can explore all possible paths simultaneously. This parallelism is what makes quantum computers especially powerful for tasks involving complex mathematics, including factoring large numbers and uncovering patterns within massive datasets.
Recent breakthroughs highlight the promise of quantum technology. Google’s quantum processor, Willow, reportedly completed a specialized computation in under five minutes—an exercise that would take classical supercomputers an impractically long time to finish. The chip is estimated to be roughly 13,000 times faster than the world’s most powerful traditional systems for that task. Achievements like this help explain why quantum computing is drawing growing interest across sectors such as healthcare, logistics, and materials research.
Still, despite the enthusiasm, quantum computing remains in its early developmental phase. Current systems face significant technical limitations. Qubits are highly fragile, must operate at temperatures close to absolute zero, and are extremely sensitive to environmental noise, which can introduce errors. Even in tightly controlled settings, sustaining a stable quantum state for more than a short duration remains challenging. For instance, Google’s Willow chip uses 105 qubits, whereas practical, fault-tolerant quantum computers would likely require thousands of reliably connected and stable qubits.
The rapid progress of quantum computing has prompted renewed scrutiny of the long-term security of cryptography-dependent digital systems, including cryptocurrencies. Because bitcoin’s architecture rests on assumptions about the limits of computational power, any transformative advance in computing naturally warrants closer evaluation.
The Real Threats That Could Undermine Bitcoin’s Value
“Quantum computers are not a matter of if, but when,” said Timothy Hollebeek, Industry Standards Strategist at DigiCert—a sentiment that helps explain why quantum advancements are increasingly viewed as a potential long-term risk to bitcoin’s security and valuation.
The most significant risk centers on Shor’s algorithm, a quantum method capable of compromising the elliptic curve digital signature algorithm (ECDSA) that bitcoin relies on to verify ownership of funds. Under today’s classical computing constraints, deriving a private key from a public key is computationally infeasible. However, in a future with sufficiently powerful quantum computers, this assumption may no longer hold. In theory, an attacker could extract a private key from its corresponding public key in a relatively short period, enabling unauthorized transfers of funds.
The quantum risk is not evenly spread across the bitcoin network. Roughly 25% of all bitcoins—more than 5 million BTC—are held in so-called “vulnerable” addresses, including early P2PK addresses and reused P2PKH addresses. This category also encompasses the estimated 1.1 million BTC attributed to Satoshi Nakamoto. These holdings are more exposed because their public keys are already visible on the blockchain, making them potential targets for quantum-enabled attacks. If even a fraction of these coins were moved by a quantum adversary, the resulting supply shock could be severe, shaking confidence in bitcoin’s ownership framework and placing significant downward pressure on prices.
Even newer address formats are not entirely risk-free under extreme assumptions. One commonly cited theoretical vulnerability involves transactions sitting in the mempool—the queue of unconfirmed transactions shared across network nodes. In this scenario, a sufficiently advanced quantum computer could detect a transaction before it is confirmed, derive the corresponding private key in real time, and submit a competing transaction that redirects the funds. Although highly speculative, this example illustrates how execution speed could become as critical as raw computational power.
Beyond outright theft, quantum computing could also erode trust in bitcoin’s neutrality and privacy. Through Grover’s algorithm, quantum-capable miners could gain a disproportionate advantage in proof-of-work mining, increasing the risk of mining centralization. If a single entity accumulated enough influence, it could censor transactions or reorganize blocks, undermining bitcoin’s decentralised ethos.
Another frequently cited risk is the concept of “harvest now, decrypt later,” where encrypted blockchain data is collected today with the expectation that future quantum computers could decrypt it. While this would not alter historical transactions, it could reveal identities behind pseudonymous wallets or expose past activity, weakening perceived privacy guarantees.
These technical risks are increasingly showing up in market behavior. By early 2026, quantum-related concerns had moved beyond abstract theory and begun to affect investor positioning. Bitcoin, for instance, lagged gold by roughly 6.5% year-to-date, while gold advanced about 55% over the same period. As a result, the bitcoin-to-gold ratio fell to around 19 BTC per ounce, signaling a more cautious stance toward bitcoin among investors.
Bitcoin Relative to Gold
How Bitcoin Could Be Compromised—and Why It Remains Resilient
At present, Bitcoin depends on elliptic curve cryptography (ECC)—specifically the secp256k1 curve—to generate public and private keys. Transactions are authenticated using ECDSA signatures, a system that is secure against classical computers but could be vulnerable to sufficiently advanced quantum machines. If that were to happen, both fund ownership and transaction integrity could be at risk.
One practical solution is the adoption of post-quantum cryptography (PQC), which is designed to withstand quantum attacks. Rather than requiring a complete overhaul of the network, PQC could be introduced incrementally, allowing vulnerable cryptographic components to be replaced over time.
Under a PQC framework, security would be reinforced through a three-layer defense. Kyber would protect communications between nodes and wallets, preventing interception or eavesdropping. Dilithium would handle transaction verification and safeguard private keys against quantum-enabled attacks. SPHINCS+ would ensure the integrity of transaction records, effectively giving each transaction a unique, tamper-resistant cryptographic fingerprint.
Bitcoin is not a static system. In January 2026, the first “Bitcoin Quantum” testnets began experimenting with post-quantum cryptography using NIST-standardised algorithms such as ML-DSA (formerly Dilithium). These trials demonstrated that quantum-resistant upgrades can be tested safely before any network-wide rollout. Such technologies strengthen transaction validation, data transmission, and record integrity, helping ensure bitcoin’s durability in a future shaped by quantum computing. Previous upgrades—including SegWit and Taproot—illustrate that bitcoin can evolve without disrupting network operations.
Resilience is not purely technical; it is also economic and social. A visible quantum-related attack would pose an immediate threat to bitcoin’s value, creating strong incentives for miners, developers, exchanges, and large holders to coordinate a rapid response. Historically, the network has shown an ability to converge quickly on practical solutions when facing systemic risks. Moreover, quantum computing is advancing incrementally, giving bitcoin ample time to prepare, test, and deploy defensive measures before the threat becomes acute. In this context, resilience is about managing technological change carefully rather than attempting to stop it outright.
Bitcoin’s robustness is rooted in both its architecture and its incentives. The network has no central authority, physical headquarters, or kill switch. Its ledger is maintained by thousands of independent nodes globally, eliminating single points of failure. A fixed supply cap of 21 million coins guards against monetary inflation, while the proof-of-work mechanism—secured by vast computational resources—makes large-scale attacks prohibitively expensive.
Widespread adoption further reinforces this resilience. By 2024, an estimated 500 million people held bitcoin or other cryptocurrencies, while institutional participation expanded through ETFs, hedge funds, pension funds, and even sovereign entities. As bitcoin becomes increasingly embedded in the global financial system, the economic and political costs of attempting to disrupt it continue to rise. Major stakeholders now have strong incentives to preserve long-term stability rather than undermine it.
Some observers, including Michael Saylor, have argued that a shift to quantum-resistant addresses could materially affect bitcoin’s market dynamics. If the network were to establish a migration deadline, coins held in legacy addresses—whose owners have lost access or passed away—could become permanently inaccessible. This would effectively remove millions of bitcoins from circulation, tightening supply and increasing scarcity. While the timing and market response remain uncertain, such a transition underscores the intricate relationship between technological evolution and bitcoin’s economic framework.
Conclusion
Quantum computing poses challenges that extend well beyond bitcoin, as many digital platforms and internet communications depend on the same public-key cryptographic systems that could eventually be vulnerable to quantum attacks. Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang has suggested that truly practical quantum computers may still be 15 to 30 years away, providing a meaningful window for industries to prepare and adapt.
In the meantime, leading technology firms are already moving to address these risks. Microsoft, for instance, is incorporating post-quantum cryptography (PQC) into its core software libraries and working alongside global standards organizations to develop quantum-resistant protocols for secure communications.
Together, these initiatives indicate that both the broader technology sector and the cryptocurrency ecosystem are actively planning for a post-quantum future, testing and deploying safeguards well ahead of the arrival of commercially viable quantum computers.
Bitcoin may be extended and capable of sharp countertrend bounces, but the broader signal is clearly weakening. When market leaders begin to roll over and assets start moving in lockstep, liquidity is usually the underlying issue.
When risk assets move together, it’s rarely intentional. Dispersion has collapsed, leadership is breaking down, and liquidity is retreating to the sidelines. Volatility is no longer being absorbed—it’s being amplified.
The extent of the damage matters. The very assets that led the risk rally are now suffering the most, not because the narrative has shifted, but because capital is being withdrawn rather than reallocated. That’s how selloffs become disorderly.
Signs of stress are already emerging in rates markets. Expectations for Federal Reserve easing this year have surged from 41 basis points to 61 basis points in just a few days—nearly a full rate cut being priced in within a week. Markets don’t make that kind of adjustment unless financial conditions are tightening rapidly.
Bitcoin is deeply stretched and prone to sharp countertrend rallies, but being oversold does not mean the downside is finished. This feels like the phase where correlations converge, risk assets move as one, and capital preservation takes precedence.
BTC/USD Price Action Deteriorates Sharply
My long-held view is that bitcoin’s price is ultimately driven by its own price action. Whatever the underlying catalysts, the market repeatedly failed to break above the $123,600 level in the second half of last year, with four separate weekly rejections at that resistance. That ceiling capped the advance and set the stage for a pullback toward the $99,800 support area, before price eventually slipped below the 50-week moving average—a level that had consistently provided support throughout last year’s uptrend.
From there, downside momentum intensified. Bitcoin broke decisively through the $99,800 support and then consolidated within a rising wedge, a bearish continuation pattern, before breaking down last week on a clear surge in volume. The move below $74,400 triggered a sharp acceleration lower, pointing to forced liquidations of long positions rather than orderly selling.
So far, price has rebounded from around $60,000, which is not surprising given how stretched conditions have become. Bitcoin remains well below the lower Bollinger Band, RSI is deeply oversold, and MACD is at extreme levels by historical standards. A rebound toward $74,400 is therefore quite possible, but unless that level is decisively reclaimed, any rally is likely to be sold into.
On the downside, there is limited meaningful support below $60,000 until roughly $49,400—a level that served as both support and resistance during parts of 2024.
Gold, silver, and mining stocks did initially move higher, but the rally was short-lived. Prices reversed intraday and then pushed lower, with the declines continuing today—benefiting all of our open trading positions. Hopefully, you followed the recommendation to short bitcoin, as previously emphasized.
The key question now is whether the corrective rebound has already run its course. In today’s analysis, the focus is on bitcoin and the equity market, as both remain closely linked to the performance of precious metals.
At this point, the odds appear evenly balanced. I’d put the chances at roughly 50/50, largely due to the factors driving the current pullback, at least over the near term.
Looking Beyond the U.S. Dollar
The U.S. Dollar Index has rallied recently, and while it was one of the drivers behind last week’s decline in precious metals, it does not account for this week’s weakness, as the USDX has been relatively subdued.
So what drove the sharp selloff in silver and mining stocks? What triggered the move—aside from the fact that both markets were extremely overbought from a technical standpoint?
The key driver was the sharp drop in equities. While the S&P 500’s decline may not appear dramatic on the surface, it is notable given the unusually low volatility that had prevailed in recent months.
That situation is likely to shift. Some traders may even consider exposure to VIX-related instruments or call options, though shorting bitcoin arguably offers greater leverage.
Equities have moved back toward their recent lows, and silver and mining stocks followed suit. This type of synchronized behavior is typical—and closely mirrors the market dynamics observed in 2008.
And this is where the situation turns especially grim
The stock market is now in a position similar to where it stood last year. After multiple attempts, it failed to hold a breakout above the prior year’s highs, effectively invalidating that move. The market also peaked shortly after reaching the vertex formed by earlier support and resistance lines.
If this pattern plays out again, the S&P 500 could fall toward the 6,300 area in the near term, stage a corrective rebound, and then slide further toward roughly 5,500.
Could it really drop that far?
Yes.
And in fact, a move to 5,500 may not mark the end of the market’s broader decline.
The AI Bubble Is Bursting
If the AI bubble does burst—and the sharp selloff in bitcoin suggests that risk appetite may already be cracking—the broader stock market could face a severe downturn. Much of the market’s prior strength was driven by aggressive buying in tech and AI-related names in the first place.
On the topic of bitcoin, here’s what I noted in yesterday’s Gold Trading Alert when discussing its recent “rebound”:
And while we’re on the subject of rebound magnitude, this is bitcoin’s rebound that barely qualifies as one. While prices did tick higher briefly, the move is almost imperceptible when viewed against the scale of the prior decline, visible only on very short-term charts.
This further underscores bitcoin’s underlying weakness and reinforces the case that gains on our short positions were likely to expand in the near term.
And that is precisely what unfolded.
The encouraging takeaway is that bitcoin still appears to have further downside ahead, suggesting our profits are likely to continue growing. The next meaningful support sits just below $60,000, though a brief drop toward the $50,000 level—a key round number and prior low—remains possible.
Such a move could, but does not necessarily have to, spark a rebound similar to the consolidation seen in 2024. If that scenario unfolds, it would likely form the right shoulder of a head-and-shoulders pattern, which could ultimately point to a much deeper decline toward the $30,000–$35,000 range.
So what does all of this mean for the precious metals market?
It suggests that a 2008-style crisis could indeed unfold again in the coming months.
This is a critical point. Although there is limited data to confirm it conclusively, silver and mining stocks have so far shown a strong correlation with the broader equity market’s performance.
Bitcoin plunged on Thursday to its lowest level since mid-October 2024, as thinning liquidity and a broad selloff in global technology stocks renewed pressure on risk assets. The world’s largest cryptocurrency was last down 12.4% at $63,539.4 by 17:28 ET (22:28 GMT).
The token has fallen in seven of the past eight sessions and is now down nearly 50% from its record high of around $126,000 reached in October 2025. Interactive Brokers chief strategist Steve Sosnick said the scale of the decline suggests the crypto market has moved beyond a normal cycle, describing it as a full-blown bear market given drawdowns of 40% to 50% or more.
Tailwinds that once boosted crypto now turning into headwinds
Bitcoin’s sharp selloff has intensified in recent days amid a broader rout in technology stocks, as investors rotate out of high-risk assets. According to Interactive Brokers strategist Steve Sosnick, several of the forces that fueled bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies’ rapid ascent in 2025 have now turned into headwinds.
Strong inflows following the launch of bitcoin ETFs in January 2024, the Trump administration’s supportive stance toward digital assets, and substantial purchases by crypto-focused treasury firms all helped drive prices higher, Sosnick said. He added that crypto also benefited during the rally from minimal margin constraints, as many exchanges and dealers offered extremely high leverage. Unlike stocks and ETFs, which are limited by Regulation T and similar rules, this leverage allowed investors to amplify gains—an effect that is now accelerating losses as prices fall.
After bitcoin surged to a record high above $126,000 on October 6, the broader cryptocurrency market experienced a sharp selloff just four days later. Analysts later described the move as a “flash crash,” attributing it to heavily leveraged dealers being forced to unwind positions amid margin-related losses.
Interactive Brokers strategist Steve Sosnick said that as market momentum shifted, several of the factors that had previously supported cryptocurrencies began to turn into headwinds. He noted that while leverage can significantly amplify gains during rallies, it can also sharply magnify losses during downturns. Sosnick added that progress on anticipated crypto regulation stalled in Congress, while equity-focused investors rotated toward other opportunities as momentum faded. He also pointed out that although exchange-traded funds made it easy for investors to gain crypto exposure, they also enabled swift exits when sentiment turned.
According to Sosnick, what began as a routine correction ultimately snowballed into a full-blown rout, mirroring selloffs seen in other assets that had posted outsized gains, including software stocks and precious metals.
Dwindling liquidity
Reports indicated that market liquidity was particularly thin, magnifying price swings and triggering a wave of forced liquidations as bitcoin fell through closely watched technical levels. The selloff was intensified by aggressive unwinding of leveraged positions—especially in derivatives markets—after bitcoin’s slide below $75,000 activated a series of stop-loss orders. Data from crypto analytics firm CoinGlass showed that nearly $770 million worth of cryptocurrency positions were liquidated over the past 24 hours.
Most major altcoins also moved sharply lower on Thursday. Ethereum, the world’s second-largest cryptocurrency, fell 11.5% to $1,878.11, while XRP, the third-largest token, plunged 21% to $1.19. Solana and Cardano recorded steep losses as well, sliding 11.9% and 11.1%, respectively. Meme coins were also hit hard, with Dogecoin down 12.1% and the $TRUMP token sinking more than 14%.
In our Ethereum (ETHUSD) update from three weeks ago, we noted that ETH had been forming an ascending triangle since 2020—characterized by higher lows and relatively equal highs—signaling that the long-term uptrend remained intact. We also highlighted that a pullback toward the ~$2,200 support area, followed by a breakout, could open the door for a move toward ~$6,190.
Today, Ethereum is trading near that trend line at around $2,150. At the same time, the daily RSI(30) has declined to 32. Historically, aside from the 2018 bear market, this zone has provided attractive low-risk, high-reward opportunities for investors with a long-term horizon or those employing a dollar-cost averaging (DCA) strategy (see Figure 1).
Figure 1: Ethereum’s daily price action since 2015.
More on the RSI is discussed below. In the meantime, what would be the downside risk if the trend line fails to hold, allowing for some short-term whipsaw action? That scenario is illustrated below using the Elliott Wave Principle (EW). Under this framework, ETH’s price action suggests it may be unfolding within a larger, higher-degree fourth wave—labeled as the black Wave 4. See Figure 2.
Figure 2: Ethereum’s monthly price action since 2015.
In this scenario, Ethereum would gravitate toward the lower black dotted trend line, which has acted as key downside support since 2021 and is currently near $1,450. From that level, the second-largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization could still resume its advance, unfolding a (black) fifth wave that ideally targets around $6,200 (4,865 − 1,08? + 1,450). This aligns closely with the breakout objective from our original analysis, where we noted: “If Ethereum drops to ~$2,200 support first and then breaks out, we can expect ~$6,190.”
Lastly, it is worth noting that the monthly RSI(5) has now fallen below 30. Similar to the daily RSI(30), historical data shows that this level has typically provided low-risk, high-reward opportunities for investors with a long-term horizon and/or those employing a dollar-cost averaging (DCA) approach.
The slide followed heavy losses in Asian and U.S. technology stocks, as fears that AI investment may be peaking—alongside stretched valuations and slowing earnings growth—pushed investors away from risk assets.
What to know:
Bitcoin dropped as much as 7.5% during Asian trading on Thursday, falling below $71,000 as a global tech-led selloff spilled over into crypto markets.
The move came after sharp declines in Asian and U.S. tech shares, driven by concerns over cooling AI spending, elevated valuations, and weakening earnings momentum.
Bitcoin’s latest fall, alongside steep losses in silver and gold, highlights its behavior as a high-beta risk asset. Thin liquidity and rising macro uncertainty have amplified price swings, pointing to fragile investor conviction rather than a definitive trend reversal.
Bitcoin fell below the $71,000 threshold during Asian trading on Thursday as a renewed global selloff in technology stocks spilled over into crypto markets, dampening hopes of a sustained recovery after last week’s sharp volatility.
The world’s largest cryptocurrency dropped as much as 7.5% over the past 24 hours, briefly touching lows near $70,700 before trimming some losses, according to CoinDesk data.
The decline followed steep losses across Asian equity markets, where rising concerns about slowing artificial intelligence spending, elevated valuations, and weakening earnings momentum pushed investors further away from risk assets. MSCI’s Asia technology index fell for the fifth time in six sessions, led by a roughly 4% drop in South Korea’s Kospi as AI-linked heavyweight stocks came under pressure.
Weakness in Asia followed a selloff in U.S. markets, where the Nasdaq slid after underwhelming earnings from companies including Alphabet, Qualcomm, and Arm reinforced fears that the AI investment cycle may be peaking sooner than expected.
Bitcoin has increasingly behaved like a high-beta risk asset during equity-driven downturns, particularly when liquidity is thin and macroeconomic uncertainty intensifies.
The latest slide comes after choppy price action earlier in the week, when bitcoin dropped toward $73,000 before rebounding above $76,000—moves that signaled fragile investor conviction rather than a decisive trend reversal.
Pressure was exacerbated by sharp moves in commodities. Silver plunged as much as 17%, while gold fell more than 3%, extending a severe unwind that has already triggered significant liquidations in tokenized metals products across crypto trading platforms.
Stellar continued its corrective move on Thursday after failing to reclaim a previously broken trendline. Derivatives data points to mounting weakness, with short positions increasing even as open interest declines. The technical picture remains bearish, suggesting sellers retain control and could push the price into a deeper correction.
Stellar (XLM) continued its corrective decline on Thursday, trading below $0.167 at the time of writing after facing rejection at a key resistance level. Derivatives indicators signal growing weakness, with short positions increasing even as open interest declines. From a technical perspective, bearish momentum remains dominant, leaving XLM vulnerable to further downside and potential new lows.
Derivatives data signals downside bias for XLM
CoinGlass data shows XLM’s long-to-short ratio at 0.85 on Thursday, close to its lowest level in a month. A reading below one indicates a bearish skew in market positioning, with a greater share of traders betting on further price declines.
Stellar’s futures open interest fell to $95 million on Thursday, marking its lowest level since November 2024 and continuing a steady decline seen since the start of the year. The reduction in open interest signals diminishing trader participation and reinforces the broader bearish outlook for XLM.
Stellar Price Forecast: XLM deepens correction after slipping below key support
Stellar fell more than 13% last week, closing below the lower boundary of a falling wedge pattern on Saturday. Since then, XLM has repeatedly faced rejection near the broken trendline through Wednesday, extending losses by more than 5%. As of Thursday, the token is trading around $0.169.
If the corrective move continues, XLM could slide further toward its 2025 yearly low at $0.160, recorded on October 10.
Momentum indicators continue to point lower. The daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 26, signaling oversold conditions and strong bearish pressure. Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) has remained in a bearish crossover since mid-January, with expanding red histogram bars below the zero line reinforcing the negative technical bias.
Alternatively, a recovery in XLM could see prices push higher toward the lower boundary of the trendline, near the $0.180 level.
Bitcoin fell to a 15-month low on Wednesday, sliding toward the $72,000 level amid a broad-based selloff across global financial markets.
The world’s largest cryptocurrency dropped as much as 5.4% to $72,047, its weakest level since Nov. 6, 2024—the day after Donald Trump’s U.S. presidential election victory. Bitcoin has now shed more than 40% from its record high reached in October 2025.
While earlier declines this week were largely driven by crypto-specific liquidations, Wednesday’s losses appeared to be part of a wider risk-off move. Global markets saw coordinated selling pressure, with the Nasdaq 100 falling more than 2% as software stocks, semiconductor names, and other interest rate–sensitive sectors came under pressure.
Bitcoin on Tuesday wiped out all of the gains it had made since President Donald Trump’s election victory in early November 2024. Selling pressure continued into Wednesday, briefly dragging the world’s largest cryptocurrency below the $72,000 level.
The digital asset has now plunged roughly 42% from its record high above $126,000 reached last October, firmly placing it in bear-market territory.
Bitcoin surged through 2025 on expectations of a more crypto-friendly regulatory environment under the Trump administration, strong inflows into spot exchange-traded funds, and growing institutional adoption. Since peaking, however, prices have fallen sharply, with losses accelerating in 2026.
Citi Research analyst Alex Saunders said downside sensitivity to equity markets, heightened geopolitical risks, and long-position liquidations have weighed heavily on bitcoin and the broader crypto market.
Saunders also noted a clear slowdown in inflows to U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs since Oct. 10 last year, which he views as a key source of incremental demand. The drop in new money has coincided with increased caution among long-term holders, who have grown more concerned about cyclical weakness in bitcoin.
Nearing critical levels
Bitcoin slid as much as 5% on Wednesday to an intraday low of $71,913.4, marking its weakest level since early November 2024.
Citi Research analyst Alex Saunders said bitcoin is now nearing critical price thresholds. He noted that prices have fallen below Citi’s estimated average U.S. spot ETF entry level of $81,600 and are approaching the roughly $70,000 level that prevailed ahead of the U.S. presidential election.
Saunders pointed to U.S. legislation passed by the House in July 2025—currently stalled in the Senate—as a potential catalyst for renewed investor interest. He said there has been some progress early this year, with the Senate Finance Committee releasing a draft bill intended to be reconciled with the House-approved CLARITY Act, although the proposal has yet to gain broad support and a committee vote has been delayed. The Senate Agriculture Committee has also advanced its own version of the legislation.
According to Saunders, positive developments on the regulatory front could provide a meaningful boost to market sentiment and capital inflows, citing past examples such as stronger ETF demand following the U.S. election and the passage of the GENIUS Act in July 2025.
No signs of structural stress in crypto markets
Analysts say bitcoin’s latest selloff does not signal deeper structural problems, but rather reflects the normal ebb and flow of bull and bear cycles.
“Recent price movements in bitcoin don’t suggest that anything has broken in the crypto market—they simply mirror the current stage of the broader macroeconomic cycle,” said Gil Rosen, co-founder of the Blockchain Builders fund, in comments to Investing.com. He noted that earlier gains had overshot reality, with markets pricing in an unrealistically smooth rally. The subsequent decline, Rosen added, was not driven by crypto-specific factors, but by external pressures including geopolitics, tariffs, and policy uncertainty. As institutional investors now play a larger role, bitcoin increasingly trades like a risk asset, making it more vulnerable when macro conditions deteriorate.
Nicholas Motz, CIO of Soil.co and CEO of ORQO.digital, echoed this view, arguing that the sharp unwinding of precious metals positions late last week triggered a broader risk-off move across asset classes.
“When investors face pressure in traditional safe havens, they often sell their most liquid and profitable holdings—such as bitcoin—to offset losses elsewhere,” Motz said. He characterized the recent decline as a forced deleveraging episode rather than a fundamental change in long-term crypto adoption.
Bitcoin hovered just above 15-month lows on Wednesday after a sharp sell-off drove the world’s largest cryptocurrency down toward the $73,000 level amid a wave of liquidations and heightened risk aversion. The token was last trading 2.8% lower at $76,509.1 as of 01:56 ET (06:56 GMT), having earlier touched $73,004.3—its weakest level since November 2024.
Following the weekend’s slump, Bitcoin fell nearly 12% last week, building on a roughly 10% decline in the prior week. The latest drop marks its lowest point since Donald Trump’s U.S. election victory, wiping out gains that had previously been supported by optimism around potential regulatory easing for the cryptocurrency sector.
Bitcoin sinks to a 15-month low as mass liquidations accelerate
The downturn was accompanied by widespread liquidations of leveraged long positions. According to data from crypto analytics firm CoinGlass, nearly $740 million in bullish bets were erased over the past 24 hours, as falling prices triggered margin calls and forced traders to close positions.
Bitcoin’s latest weakness represents a sharp reversal from the strong rally seen late last year, when prices surged in the wake of Donald Trump’s election victory. At that time, investors poured into cryptocurrencies on expectations that a new U.S. administration would adopt a more supportive regulatory approach to digital assets. Additional tailwinds came from Federal Reserve rate cuts starting in December 2024, which helped fuel demand for higher-risk assets.
Gold and other traditional safe-haven assets rebounded on Wednesday as geopolitical tensions between the United States and Iran intensified.
At the same time, cryptocurrency markets remain under pressure amid uncertainty surrounding U.S. monetary policy following President Trump’s nomination of former Federal Reserve Governor Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair. Warsh is widely regarded as a policy hawk, raising concerns over tighter liquidity conditions.
Most altcoins remained under pressure on Thursday, posting steeper losses than Bitcoin. Ethereum, the world’s second-largest cryptocurrency, slipped 2.3% to $2,268.92, while XRP, ranked third, edged 1.1% lower to $1.59.
Solana dropped 6%, while Cardano also moved lower and Polygon declined 3.5%. Among meme tokens, Dogecoin was marginally weaker, down 0.2%.
Solana remains below the $100 level on Wednesday after shedding more than 6% in the previous session.
Weakening retail sentiment alongside subdued institutional interest points to a growing bearish bias.
From a technical perspective, rising selling pressure suggests further downside toward the $85 region.
Solana (SOL) remains below the $100 mark at press time on Wednesday, following a decline of more than 6% in the prior session amid broader weakness across the cryptocurrency market. Both institutional and retail interest in Solana continue to fade, even as on-chain metrics recorded a record 150 million daily transactions on Tuesday. From a technical standpoint, strengthening bearish momentum points to the risk of a further slide toward the $85 level.
Solana continues to see robust on-chain user activity, with daily transaction volume reaching a record high on Tuesday. According to Blockworks data, the network processed over 150 million transactions during the day, averaging approximately 1,743 transactions per second.
Despite resilient on-chain activity, institutional inflows have stayed muted over the past three weeks, averaging no more than $9 million per day since January and including three sessions of net outflows. Data from Sosovalue shows that U.S. Solana-focused exchange-traded funds (ETFs) posted inflows of $1.24 million on Tuesday, following a $5.58 million inflow recorded on Monday.
Meanwhile, signals from the derivatives market point to a bearish tilt in Solana sentiment, accompanied by capital outflows. CoinGlass data shows that SOL open interest fell by 1.24% over the past 24 hours to $6.37 billion, suggesting capital exited the market through position closures or reduced leverage.
Liquidation data further highlights the bearish bias, with long liquidations totaling $22.31 million during the period—more than five times the $4.39 million in short liquidations.
In addition, Solana’s OI-weighted funding rate has slipped to -0.0238%, underscoring increasingly negative sentiment as traders holding or initiating short positions are willing to pay a premium to maintain them.
The waning bullish appetite for Solana mirrors the broader market downturn, which has seen total liquidations of around $735 million over the past 24 hours, including approximately $529 million from long positions.
Moreover, the broader cryptocurrency market remains under pressure, with the Fear and Greed Index falling to 14 on Wednesday—pointing to extreme risk-averse sentiment among investors. Without a meaningful improvement in market mood, Solana may face additional downside.
Technical Outlook: Is Solana headed toward $85?
Solana continues to trade below its 50-, 100-, and 200-day Exponential Moving Averages at $127, $139, and $153, respectively, keeping the broader trend firmly under pressure. The shorter-term EMAs remain positioned beneath the longer-term averages, forming a bearish alignment that has capped recent rebound attempts.
A sustained move below the $95 level would leave the S1 Pivot Point at $85 as the next downside target.
Momentum indicators remain decisively negative, with the MACD and signal line both trending lower and extending further into bearish territory on the daily chart. Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index stands at 28 and is consolidating within oversold territory, a setup that could still allow for additional downside despite stretched conditions.
On the upside, a recovery back above the $100 level could shift focus toward the 50-day EMA near $127 as the initial upside objective.
WisdomTree CEO Jonathan Steinberg said the firm’s push into tokenization is approaching profitability, underscoring a shift in which crypto has evolved from a small-scale experiment into a core pillar of the company’s strategy.
The asset manager has rapidly expanded its digital-asset business, growing tokenized assets under management from roughly $30 million to about $750 million, while extending its offerings across additional blockchains, including Solana.
Steinberg described crypto as a foundation for modernizing financial infrastructure, pointing to initiatives such as tokenized investment products, the WisdomTree Connect platform, and a deliberate focus on compliance-oriented tokenization technology as central to the firm’s long-term growth plans.
New York — WisdomTree’s crypto business has moved beyond the experimental phase and is now central to the firm’s long-term strategy, with profitability coming into view, CEO Jonathan Steinberg said during a fireside chat at the Ondo Summit in New York on Tuesday.
“We want to continue to scale,” Steinberg said, noting that the firm’s digital-asset business expanded from roughly $30 million to about $750 million in assets last year. While WisdomTree does not yet generate profits from its crypto operations, Steinberg said the company is now “within line of sight of taking this to a profitable business.”
The $150 billion asset manager has been investing heavily in blockchain infrastructure, rolling out tokenized investment products and expanding to additional blockchains, including Solana. Steinberg emphasized that the push reflects long-term conviction rather than short-term experimentation. “It’s still early days, but it’s not an experiment now,” he said. “We have conviction, and we believe that eventually everything will move on-chain.”
WisdomTree’s growing commitment to digital assets was also highlighted in its latest earnings presentation, which showed total tokenized assets under management rising to $770 million—an increase of roughly 25 times from 2024 levels.
WisdomTree has emerged as an early and aggressive leader among traditional asset managers in the digital-asset space, rolling out a range of tokenized funds and recently broadening distribution through WisdomTree Connect, a platform that allows these assets to move seamlessly across self-custodied wallets and institutional systems.
The firm has also made a strategic push into blockchain infrastructure, most notably through its acquisition of Securrency, a compliance-focused tokenization company that was later sold to the DTCC. Steinberg said the deal laid the groundwork for “compliance-aware tokens” and programmable finance, forming the backbone of WisdomTree’s long-term, interoperable digital-asset strategy.
For Steinberg, crypto represents far more than a new product line—it signals a transformation of the financial system itself. “This is bigger than asset management; it’s really about financial services,” he said. He noted that many financial institutions are built on layers of legacy infrastructure accumulated over centuries, underscoring the need for modernization.
The steep sell-off in cryptocurrencies eased on Tuesday after the U.S. House narrowly approved a funding package, sending the legislation to President Donald Trump’s desk and effectively ending the partial government shutdown.
The House passed the bill by a slim 217–214 margin, clearing the way for the government to reopen once the president signs it. While lawmakers will continue negotiations over funding for the Department of Homeland Security in the coming days, most major federal agencies will remain funded.
The development helped pause a panic-driven rout in crypto markets earlier in the session. Bitcoin briefly slid to around $72,800—its lowest level since before Trump’s election victory in November 2024—before stabilizing. At roughly $74,800, bitcoin was still down about 4.5% over the past 24 hours.
Ether traded near $2,181, down 7% on the day and roughly 26% over the past week. Other major tokens, including XRP and Solana, recorded similar losses.
U.S. equities also rebounded from their intraday lows but remained sharply lower overall, with the Nasdaq down around 2% and the S&P 500 lower by about 1.3%.
Bitcoin fell sharply on Tuesday, giving up all gains made since President Donald Trump’s election victory, as selling pressure remained intense following heavy liquidations over the weekend. Ongoing uncertainty surrounding U.S. monetary policy further weighed on sentiment.
The world’s largest cryptocurrency was last down 4.2% at $74,699.9 by 15:12 ET (20:12 GMT), marking its lowest level since early November 2024. Prices touched an intraday low of $73,004.3, leaving Bitcoin down roughly 59% from its record high and firmly entrenched in bear market territory.
Menno Martens, a crypto specialist and product manager at VanEck, said the market is simply entering another familiar phase of the cycle.
“There’s no question that this is a bear market,” Martens told Investing.com, noting that the current downturn differs from previous ones due to growing geopolitical and macroeconomic influences, particularly developments in the United States.
He explained that the path of this cycle does not mirror past bull and bear markets exactly, largely because of these new external factors. However, Martens emphasized that the broader outlook remains unchanged, adding that VanEck continues to maintain a long-term perspective despite the current bearish conditions.
Bitcoin weighed down by heavy liquidations and Trump’s Fed pick
The sharp sell-off in cryptocurrencies over the weekend was fueled by widespread liquidations of leveraged positions, underscoring the heavy speculative buildup that had accumulated during last year’s rally. Data from derivatives tracking firms showed that crypto positions worth several billion dollars were wiped out in a short span, with long trades accounting for most of the forced closures.
Thin market liquidity further amplified volatility, allowing relatively modest price moves to trigger cascading liquidations.
Investor sentiment has also been dampened by broader macroeconomic uncertainty. Markets are weighing the implications of Kevin Warsh’s nomination as the next chair of the U.S. Federal Reserve, prompting a reassessment of the outlook for interest rates.
Warsh is broadly perceived as leaning toward a more hawkish policy stance, stoking concerns that tighter financial conditions could persist for longer.
Separately, the release of January’s closely watched U.S. employment report—originally scheduled for Friday—has been delayed due to a partial government shutdown, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
White House crypto meeting ends without agreement on stablecoin yields
The cryptocurrency industry and major U.S. banks remain divided over how to regulate stablecoin yields following a White House meeting, underscoring ongoing hurdles to advancing long-delayed crypto legislation, according to media reports.
Executives from crypto companies, representatives from large banks, and government officials gathered in Washington to discuss market-structure rules, but made little headway on the key question of whether stablecoin issuers should be permitted to offer yield-like returns.
Banks have warned that yield-bearing stablecoins could accelerate deposit outflows and threaten financial stability, while crypto firms argue that such features are essential for innovation, growth, and maintaining competitiveness.
Crypto prices today: altcoins rebound as Polygon surges 10%
Most altcoins also moved lower on Tuesday.
Ethereum, the world’s second-largest cryptocurrency, fell 4.9% to $2,242.43, while third-ranked XRP declined 3.6% to $1.58.
Solana dropped 4.1%, and Cardano eased 1.8%.
Among meme tokens, Dogecoin slipped 2.1%, while the $TRUMP token fell 1.4%.
Stablecoin issuer Tether said its newly launched MiningOS is a modular, self-hosted software stack designed to support mining operations ranging from small home rigs to large, multi-site industrial facilities.
What to know:
Tether has introduced MiningOS, an open-source, modular operating system for Bitcoin mining designed to streamline infrastructure management and lessen reliance on proprietary vendor software.
The self-hosted platform uses a peer-to-peer architecture, allowing miners to manage operations without centralized services and scale seamlessly from home rigs to multi-site industrial facilities.
Released under the Apache 2.0 license and built on Holepunch peer-to-peer protocols, MiningOS is hardware-agnostic and positions Tether alongside other advocates of open-source mining solutions, including Jack Dorsey’s Block.
Tether has unveiled an open-source operating system for Bitcoin mining, positioning it as a tool to simplify infrastructure management while cutting dependence on closed, vendor-controlled software. On Monday, the stablecoin issuer announced the launch of MiningOS (MOS), a modular and scalable mining platform built to serve everyone from individual hobbyists to large institutional operators.
The software aims to eliminate the “black box” nature of many existing mining setups, where hardware and monitoring systems are tightly locked into proprietary ecosystems. According to Tether, MiningOS prioritizes transparency, openness, and collaboration, and is designed with no vendor lock-in.
MOS operates on a self-hosted architecture and uses an integrated peer-to-peer network to communicate with connected devices, enabling miners to manage operations without centralized services. Operators can tailor settings via a companion interface based on their scale and production needs. Tether CEO Paolo Ardoino described MOS as a “complete operational platform” capable of scaling from a single home rig to industrial-grade mining sites spread across multiple locations.
Tether first outlined plans for an open-source mining operating system in June last year, saying new miners should be able to compete without relying on costly third-party software and management providers. The launch puts Tether alongside other crypto companies advocating open-source mining infrastructure, including Jack Dorsey’s Block.
MiningOS is released under the Apache 2.0 license and is built on Holepunch peer-to-peer protocols, a design choice intended to keep the software stack independent of external third-party dependencies.
Bernstein notes that the ongoing pullback in the crypto market may be short-lived, with Bitcoin potentially starting a recovery in the first half of the year.
The firm’s analysts point to rising institutional inflows and shifting US policy dynamics as factors that could underpin what they describe as Bitcoin’s “most consequential cycle.”
Other market participants anticipate capital rotation away from “overcrowded” precious metals and into Bitcoin.
Bitcoin may find a price floor near its previous cycle peak in the $60,000 area before staging a potential recovery in the first half of the year, according to analysts at Bernstein.
Led by Gautam Chhugani, the analysts noted that the recent pullback in crypto prices follows a period of strong outperformance by gold relative to Bitcoin over the past year. They added that Bitcoin’s market capitalization compared to that of gold is nearing a two-year low, as central banks have significantly increased their gold purchases over the past year.
Bernstein added that the recent market softness may represent a short-lived correction rather than the start of a prolonged bearish cycle, driven by several underlying factors.
New catalysts help Bitcoin remain resilient despite price weakness
The firm argued that robust institutional inflows into Bitcoin ETFs — which now hold roughly $165 billion in assets — alongside growing allocations from corporate treasuries, have helped the market move beyond the traditional boom-and-bust cycle.
Bernstein also pointed to the lack of miner-led capitulation, a feature commonly seen in past market downturns. Instead, miners have increasingly diversified their revenue by expanding into AI-focused data center operations, reducing their reliance on Bitcoin price fluctuations.
US policy developments were cited as another potential upside catalyst. Bernstein highlighted the creation of a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve funded by seized government BTC holdings, while potential changes in Federal Reserve leadership under nominee Kevin Warsh could further enhance Bitcoin’s standing. The analysts suggested that broader political alignment with the crypto sector could pave the way for Bitcoin to be viewed as a sovereign or reserve-like asset.
“We do not expect a passive response from the U.S. government if digital asset markets continue to decline,” the analysts wrote.
The latest assessment follows Bernstein’s projection last month that Bitcoin had bottomed near $80,000. At the time of publication, the world’s largest cryptocurrency was trading around $78,000, up 1.8% over the past few hours.
U.S. stock index futures edge lower as a sharp selloff in gold and silver weighs on investor sentiment ahead of a packed week of major corporate earnings and key economic releases. Bitcoin continues to slide after dropping below $80,000 over the weekend. Elsewhere, Oracle signals plans for fresh fundraising, while speculation over potential executive changes at Walt Disney grows ahead of its upcoming quarterly results.
Futures edge lower
U.S. equity index futures moved lower on Monday, pointing to a continuation of last session’s losses at the start of the new trading week.
As of 03:11 ET (08:11 GMT), Dow futures were down 323 points, or 0.7%, S&P 500 futures had declined 62 points, or 0.9%, and Nasdaq 100 futures were lower by 291 points, or 1.1%.
Market participants are closely watching a heavy slate of upcoming corporate earnings alongside a new monthly jobs report. Together, these releases could shed light on the health of the U.S. economy and test the resilience of a stock market rally now in its fourth year.
Beyond ongoing questions over the durability of the artificial intelligence-driven rally, investors are also weighing the implications of President Donald Trump’s nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve Chair. If confirmed by the Senate, Warsh would bring his long-held calls for a shift in the monetary policy framework to the world’s most influential central bank.
Gold and silver extend their selloff
A sharp decline in both gold and silver, continuing the historic drop seen on Friday, weighed heavily on market sentiment—especially in Asia, where equities broadly fell.
Following a nearly 10% plunge late last week, spot gold fell another 4.9% to $4,626.80 per ounce by 03:27 ET, slipping well below the $5,000 mark it had just recently surpassed. Silver, which had benefited from speculative interest and industrial demand, also faced selling pressure but had somewhat stabilized around $79 an ounce as of 03:30 ET.
Analysts attribute the metals’ losses to a stronger U.S. dollar and widespread profit-taking after their significant rally in recent months.
Investors also showed concern about Kevin Warsh’s potentially hawkish stance in the long term. Although Warsh—formerly a Federal Reserve governor—has supported President Trump’s calls for sharply lower interest rates, he has been critical of the Fed’s asset purchase programs.
“Warsh is viewed as the most inflation-focused candidate for the Fed chair, reducing the chances of aggressive monetary easing. This sparked a wave of selling, with gold enduring its steepest decline in four decades,” ANZ analysts noted.
Bitcoin continues to decline
The risk-averse mood extended to cryptocurrencies, with Bitcoin dropping over 2% to $76,892.4. On Saturday, the leading digital currency fell below the $80,000 mark, continuing its decline from Friday. Some investors worried that Kevin Warsh might support shrinking the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet, which could reduce liquidity in the financial system.
Larger Fed balance sheets have historically supported cryptocurrencies by injecting cash into money markets, providing backing for riskier assets.
This latest slide marks another downturn for Bitcoin since reaching its all-time high last October. Once buoyed by optimism over increased cash flows and a friendlier regulatory environment under Trump, the token has now lost about one-third of its value.
With turmoil spreading across stocks, commodities, and crypto, Jonas Goltermann, Deputy Chief Markets Economist at Capital Economics, described the past few days as “unusually hectic […] for financial markets” in a recent note.
Oracle announces plans for new fundraising
On Sunday evening, Oracle Corporation announced plans to raise new capital in 2026 to support the expansion of its AI and cloud infrastructure amid rising demand for computing power.
The company aims to generate between $45 billion and $50 billion in gross proceeds during 2026, utilizing a mix of debt and equity financing.
About half of the funds will come from a combination of equity derivatives and common stock, according to a company statement.
Oracle plans to raise its debt funding through a single, one-time issuance of investment-grade senior unsecured bonds in early 2026, with no additional debt expected afterward.
Analysts at Vital Knowledge highlighted that roughly half of the total funding will come from equity-linked securities, including a $20 billion at-the-market (ATM) common equity program.
They noted, “Oracle’s $20 billion ATM offering is the first time a major tech company has been compelled to raise equity since the AI boom began. If this signals a shift toward greater fiscal caution in the industry, it could lead to a slower overall pace of spending.”
Disney set to release earnings
Walt Disney is set to release its earnings before the opening bell on Monday.
While the company’s continued focus on its streaming services, alongside its vital parks and studios divisions, will be closely watched, much of the attention may center on leadership succession.
According to the Wall Street Journal, Disney CEO Bob Iger has informed colleagues that he intends to step down and reduce his day-to-day involvement before his contract expires on December 31.
Board members are expected to convene soon to decide on Iger’s successor, with several media outlets naming Experiences division head Josh D’Amaro as the likely frontrunner.
Solana extended its sell-off on Monday after posting a decline of more than 15% in the previous week.
Derivatives data continues to reinforce the bearish move, with short positioning increasing and funding rates turning negative.
From a technical standpoint, a decisive close below $100 would likely open the door to a deeper correction.
Solana (SOL) extended its correction on Monday, trading below $100 after shedding more than 15% the previous week. The bearish price action is reinforced by derivatives indicators, which show increasing short positions and negative funding rates. From a technical perspective, a daily close below $100 could pave the way for a deeper correction in SOL.
Derivatives data points to a deeper correction
Derivatives data for Solana continues to support a bearish outlook. Coinglass OI-weighted funding rate data indicates that traders positioning for further downside in SOL now outnumber those expecting a rebound.
The metric turned negative on Saturday and stands at -0.0080% as of Monday, meaning short positions are paying longs—a clear signal of bearish sentiment toward Solana.
Additionally, Coinglass’s long-to-short ratio for SOL stood at 0.97 on Monday. A reading below 1.0 indicates bearish market sentiment, reflecting that a greater number of traders are positioned for further downside in Solana’s price.
Weakening institutional demand
Institutional demand for Solana softened last week. Data from SoSoValue shows that spot Solana ETFs recorded $2.45 million in net outflows, marking the first weekly withdrawals since their launch. If these outflows persist or accelerate, SOL may face additional downside pressure.
Solana Price Outlook: SOL falls below $100
Solana was rejected at weekly resistance near $126.65 on Wednesday and went on to fall more than 15% through Sunday, breaking below the key $100 psychological level. As of Monday, SOL is trading around $99.60.
A daily close below $100 could extend the decline toward the April 7 low at $95.26. A sustained move below that level may open the door to further losses toward the January 23, 2024 low near $79.
On the momentum front, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the daily chart is at 25, signaling deeply oversold conditions and strong bearish momentum. Meanwhile, the MACD remains bearish after a crossover on January 19, with expanding red histogram bars below the zero line, reinforcing the negative technical outlook.
Conversely, a recovery could see SOL move back toward the weekly resistance at $126.65.
Months after the October 10 liquidation cascade, crypto market depth has yet to fully recover, while debate continues over Binance’s role as Bitcoin’s sell-off persists.
Key points to know:
Liquidity across major crypto markets remains thin and fragmented following the Oct. 10 crash. Wider bid-ask spreads and weakened order books are being cited as key factors behind Bitcoin’s decline from around $125,000.
Binance has denied allegations that an internal malfunction triggered the crash. However, critics argue that the exchange’s limited transparency has contributed to growing distrust and fueled speculation and conspiracy theories.
Market makers and industry leaders say the episode highlighted deeper structural vulnerabilities in crypto markets, particularly shallow liquidity and heavy dependence on leverage. Many stress that the issue extends beyond any single platform and may justify regulatory-style oversight of market structure.
At first glance, the $19 billion liquidity wipeout on October 10 appeared to be a familiar event: a rapid cascade of liquidations across major crypto exchanges as Bitcoin, the world’s largest cryptocurrency, plunged sharply.
What followed—and the continued lack of transparency surrounding the day’s events—has made the episode far more consequential. The sell-off became the largest single-day liquidation by dollar value in crypto history, leaving traders frustrated and fundamentally reshaping how crypto markets are viewed. At the center of the controversy is one name: Binance.
For many market participants, the world’s largest crypto exchange has become the symbol of the crash, which saw Bitcoin drop by as much as 12.5%, its steepest decline in 14 months. The move triggered widespread forced closures of leveraged positions as margin levels were breached across exchanges.
Whether due to Binance’s sheer size, its dominance in derivatives trading, or the limited clarity around what exactly transpired, the exchange has faced persistent accusations on social media, with many claiming it played a central role in the Oct. 10 event—now widely referred to as “10/10.” Binance continues to deny responsibility, maintaining that the liquidations were not caused by an internal failure. The company did not respond to a request for comment from CoinDesk for this article.
In the absence of a clearly established narrative, it is unsurprising that traders remain unsettled.
In the months since the crash, market liquidity has remained noticeably impaired. Order books have not fully recovered, market depth remains uneven, and bid-ask spreads have widened. Many traders argue that this weakened market structure accelerated Bitcoin’s decline from around $124,800 to $80,000 and further eroded confidence across the market.
Adding to the debate, Ark Invest CEO Cathie Wood has publicly weighed in, attributing Bitcoin’s continued weakness to what she described as a “Binance software glitch.”
Why Binance has re-emerged at the center of the debate
Wood said in a late-January appearance on Fox Business that the alleged glitch triggered approximately $28 billion in deleveraging.
In response, Binance co-founder He Yi pushed back online, emphasizing that Binance does not serve U.S. customers, though the post was later removed.
Rival platforms were quick to capitalize on the moment. Star Xu, founder of competing exchange OXK, said the October 10 event caused “real and lasting damage to the industry.” While he did not name Binance directly, the remarks were widely viewed as an implicit criticism of the exchange’s role in the episode.
At the same time, challengers such as the decentralized exchange Hyperliquid pointed to rising derivatives volumes and improving liquidity depth, positioning themselves as credible alternatives as Binance continues to grapple with reputational pressure.
Binance has reiterated that the October 10 event was not caused by an internal system failure.
Speaking during a Friday ask-me-anything session, co-founder and former CEO Changpeng “CZ” Zhao dismissed claims that Binance triggered the crash as “far-fetched.”
According to the company, the sell-off was driven by broader market forces, including macroeconomic pressures, excessive leverage, thin liquidity, and congestion on the Ethereum network. Binance said its core systems remained fully operational throughout the episode and that it paid approximately $283 million in compensation to affected users.
“A slap in the face”
For some market participants, Binance’s explanation has fallen short—particularly given the sheer scale of the liquidations. The $19 billion figure has taken on disproportionate symbolic significance, with Binance’s compensation payments often viewed less as meaningful restitution and more as a small fraction of the overall damage.
“This is a f***ing joke,” wrote the pseudonymous Bitcoin Realist on X. “You… liquidated $19 billion on 10/10 alone… This is like spitting in our faces.”
That frustration reflects more than outrage over a single bout of volatility. For many traders, October 10 has come to represent a deeper mistrust of crypto market structure itself.
Still, not everyone believes Binance should bear the blame.
“10/10 was very obviously not a ‘software glitch,’” wrote Evgeny Gaevoy, CEO of market maker Wintermute, on X. “It was a flash crash in a highly leveraged market during an illiquid Friday night, driven by macro news.”
He added: “Finding a scapegoat is comfortable, but pinning this on one exchange is intellectually dishonest.”
The underlying argument is straightforward: crypto markets remain heavily dependent on leverage, and liquidity is often conditional rather than continuous. During periods of stress, market makers widen spreads or withdraw altogether. In such thin conditions, liquidation cascades can quickly accelerate.
While Binance was the largest venue where the crash unfolded, it was not necessarily the origin of the shock itself.
A lack of transparency continues to fuel speculation
What remains absent is a formal public review and an authoritative account of what happened. Critics argue that without a thorough, transparent inquiry, speculation is free to grow unchecked.
Salman Banaei, a former regulator at the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), has suggested that the events of October 10 merit regulatory scrutiny, even without any allegation of wrongdoing.
“Whether you love or hate crypto, there should be a regulatory investigation into Oct. 10, 2025,” Banaei wrote, drawing a comparison to the May 6, 2010 stock market flash crash. “One benefit of regulation is that the mere possibility of such investigations acts as a deterrent to manipulation.”
He emphasized that he was not asserting manipulation took place, but rather highlighting a broader structural issue: crypto markets lack the formal post-event reviews that traditional financial markets routinely conduct after systemic disruptions.
Meanwhile, a trader known as Flood suggested that a major exchange had been steadily selling altcoins since 10/10, a claim that has fueled conspiracy theories around excess inventory.
Whether accurate or not, such narratives tend to gain traction when liquidity dries up and market confidence weakens.
The real problem lies in market depth, not a single exchange
October 10 may ultimately be remembered less for the scale of the liquidations and more for what it exposed about crypto market structure.
In bull markets, order books appear deep, leverage accumulates quietly, and liquidity feels plentiful. Bear markets reveal the opposite reality: liquidity evaporates, market makers pull back, volatility becomes concentrated, and the next shock breaks through far faster than expected.
Reflecting on the comparison with the FTX collapse in 2022, Mike Silagadze, CEO of Ether.fi, wrote on X that “this feels far worse than the post-FTX environment. In some ways, fundamentals are stronger than ever, yet price action has virtually no bids.”
Binance has become the most convenient scapegoat—not necessarily because it caused the crash, but because it is the largest and most visible exchange, making it an obvious target.
The more fundamental problem, however, is structural. Crypto market liquidity remains heavily reliant on leverage, conditional market making, and confidence—all of which have steadily eroded over the past four months.
As Eric Crown, a former options trader at NYSE Arca, put it: “I don’t know if Binance deliberately played a role in wrecking the market in October. I’d lean toward the obvious explanation: excessive leverage, insufficient liquidity, and largely ineffective or unwanted altcoin ‘technologies’ created the conditions for a massacre—and that’s exactly what happened.”
Bitcoin fell below $75,000 on Monday, sliding to its lowest level in nearly ten months.
Momentum indicators continue to weaken, pointing to intensifying bearish pressure and reinforcing the deteriorating technical outlook.
From a technical perspective, price action suggests Bitcoin could retest the $70,000 psychological support if selling pressure persists.
Bitcoin (BTC) slipped below the $75,000 level on Monday after posting an almost 11% decline over the previous week, falling to its lowest level in nearly ten months. Market momentum has decisively turned bearish, with technical indicators signaling the potential for further downside toward the $70,000 support zone.
Bitcoin may retest the $70,000 level if the correction extends
Bitcoin extended its sell-off at the start of the week, falling more than 2% on Monday after a decline of over 11% the previous week. At the time of writing, BTC is trading below $75,000, a level not seen since early April.
If Bitcoin maintains its downward trajectory, the correction could deepen toward the next major psychological support at $70,000.
On the daily chart, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is hovering near 21, signaling strong bearish momentum and deeply oversold conditions. In addition, the MACD produced a bearish crossover on January 20, which remains in place, with expanding red histogram bars below the zero line—further reinforcing the negative technical outlook.
BTC/USDT daily chart
Conversely, a recovery could see Bitcoin push toward the key psychological level at $80,000.
More than $700 million in liquidations over the past 24 hours
Bitcoin slid to levels not seen since early April, triggering a sharp wave of liquidations across the crypto market. More than $700 million in leveraged positions were wiped out over the past 24 hours, according to Coinglass.
Long positions accounted for 77.39% of the liquidations, highlighting the market’s overly bullish positioning. The single largest liquidation occurred on Hyperliquid, where a BTCUSD position worth $15.46 million was forcibly closed. Ethereum (ETH) also experienced significant pressure, with nearly $270 million liquidated in the last 24 hours.
Traders should remain cautious, as continued price weakness could spark further liquidations, particularly among highly leveraged participants.
Long EUR/USD after a daily close above 1.1866, resulting in a 0.24% loss.
Long Silver, which ended with a loss of 18.62%.
Long Gold after a daily close above $5,000, producing a 2.26% loss.
Taken together, these positions generated a total loss of 21.12%, or 7.04% per asset. While this was a sizable drawdown, the broader performance of my weekly forecasts over recent weeks remains positive, as earlier gains were exceptionally strong and more than offset this setback.
Key market data from last week:
U.S. Federal Reserve policy meeting: No surprises, with interest rates left unchanged.
U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI): The standout data release of the week. Inflation came in far hotter than expected, with headline PPI rising 0.5% month-on-month and core PPI increasing 0.7%, versus forecasts of just 0.2% for both. This reinforced a more hawkish Fed outlook, lifted the U.S. dollar, and accelerated the sharp reversal in Silver (and Gold). As a result, expectations for a second U.S. rate cut in 2026 were pushed back to October.
Bank of Canada policy meeting: No change to interest rates, as anticipated.
Australian CPI: Inflation exceeded expectations, with an annual rate of 3.8% versus 3.5% forecast, strengthening the case for possible RBA rate hikes and supporting the Australian dollar early in the week.
Canadian GDP: Slightly weaker than expected, showing zero month-on-month growth.
U.S. unemployment claims: In line with forecasts.
While PPI and Australian inflation influenced market moves, two broader developments likely had an even greater impact:
Federal Reserve leadership: President Trump announced his nominee for the next Fed Chair, Kevin Warsh. Although regarded as a hawk, Warsh is now thought to favor lower interest rates. The nomination contributed to the collapse of the Silver rally and provided additional support to the U.S. dollar.
Geopolitical tensions: The U.S. continued its military buildup near Iran, raising the risk of a wider regional conflict. Polymarket currently assigns a high probability to a U.S. strike on Iran in March, despite President Trump still referencing the possibility of a diplomatic agreement. These tensions appear to be supporting crude oil prices, with WTI crude reaching a new four-month high last week.
Meanwhile, the S&P 500 briefly pushed to a fresh record above 7,000. Although the index remains resilient, upside momentum is limited. In my view, a clearer resolution to U.S.–Iran tensions is needed before a more decisive directional move can develop.
The Week Ahead: 2nd – 6th February
The most significant data releases for the coming week, ranked by expected market impact, include:
U.S. Average Hourly Earnings and Non-Farm Payrolls
Preliminary University of Michigan Inflation Expectations
European Central Bank main refinancing rate decision and monetary policy statement
Bank of England official bank rate decision, voting breakdown, and monetary policy report
Reserve Bank of Australia cash rate decision, rate statement, and monetary policy statement
U.S. JOLTS job openings
Preliminary University of Michigan consumer sentiment
U.S. ISM services PMI
U.S. ISM manufacturing PMI
U.S. unemployment rate
New Zealand unemployment rate
Canadian unemployment rate
U.S. weekly unemployment claims
This will be a particularly busy and potentially market-moving week, with three major central banks delivering policy decisions. Please note that Friday is a public holiday in New Zealand, which may reduce liquidity in related markets.
Monthly Forecast February 2025
For the month of January 2026, I forecasted that the USD/JPY currency pair would rise in value. Unfortunately, this was a losing trade.
For the month of February, I forecast that the EUR/USD currency pair will rise in value.
Weekly Forecast 2nd February 2026
Last week, three currency crosses experienced unusually high volatility, prompting the following weekly trade forecasts:
Short NZD/JPY, which resulted in a 0.57% loss.
Short AUD/JPY, ending with a 0.32% loss.
Short NZD/CAD, producing a 0.39% loss.
Overall, the Swiss franc and the New Zealand dollar emerged as the strongest major currencies of the week, while the U.S. dollar was the weakest. Market conditions were relatively subdued, with directional volatility dropping sharply—only 11% of major currency pairs and crosses moved by more than 1% over the week.
Technical Analysis
Key Support/Resistance Levels for Popular Pairs
US Dollar Index
Last week, the U.S. Dollar Index formed a notably large bullish pin bar, rejecting a fresh four-year low. On its own, this price action is bullish. However, the broader technical structure remains bearish, with the index still trading below its levels from 13 and 26 weeks ago. As a result, the technical outlook for the U.S. dollar is mixed.
The nomination of Kevin Warsh as Federal Reserve Chair provided some support to the dollar during the week. Nevertheless, the forward outlook remains uncertain, and I believe the most attractive trading opportunities in the near term are likely to be independent of U.S. dollar direction.
EUR/USD
The EUR/USD pair recently staged a strong long-term bullish breakout as the U.S. dollar accelerated lower and printed a new 3.5-year low. However, the move quickly failed, with price retreating sharply and finding minimal follow-through support.
This price action suggests the breakout may have been a temporary spike, although the potential for a sustained bullish trend should not be dismissed, as EUR/USD has historically shown a tendency to trend cleanly once momentum is established.
That said, the appointment of a new Fed Chair and the renewed strength in the U.S. dollar late in the week—driven by hotter inflation data—argue for a more cautious stance.
Accordingly, I would only consider a long position following a daily (New York close) above 1.2039.
WTI Crude Oil
WTI crude oil has surged strongly in recent sessions as the risk of a regional conflict centered on Iran has intensified. Prediction markets are currently assigning a high probability to a U.S. strike on Iran in March, a scenario that could significantly disrupt global crude supply. Against this backdrop, prices pushed to a new four-month high by the end of last week, with a daily close above $66.25 marking a potential six-month high.
However, two important cautions should be noted:
While a daily close above $66.25 would typically attract trend-following buying, the current moving average structure does not confirm a bullish setup. Even in the event of military conflict, the move could prove to be a short-lived spike, especially if a rapid U.S. victory follows, potentially resulting in a failed breakout.
Unlike recent Democratic administrations, the Trump administration is likely to take aggressive steps to suppress crude oil prices, which could cap or reverse upside momentum.
Bitcoin
BTC/USD has finally completed a decisive bearish breakdown below the long-term support zone just above $81,000. Price is now firmly established beneath this level and has pushed to a new nine-month low, a development that is technically significant and clearly bearish.
While equities and precious metals have rallied strongly in recent months, Bitcoin peaked at a record high several months ago and has since trended steadily lower. This divergence highlights a broader downturn across the crypto sector, with Bitcoin now showing clear signs of structural weakness.
Despite early expectations that Bitcoin would fundamentally reshape global finance, real-world adoption remains limited outside parts of Africa. Practical usability is still constrained, and its underlying value proposition remains uncertain.
Although I generally avoid short-selling, Bitcoin appears entrenched in a long-term bearish trend. I would not consider buying at current levels. Short positions may be worth considering, but only with strict risk management, as shorting is best suited to experienced traders.
XAG/USD
Silver experienced an exceptionally volatile week, surging more than 15% to hit a new all-time high and the long-discussed $120 options target, before suffering a dramatic reversal. The sell-off unfolded sharply on Thursday and Friday—particularly Friday—when prices plunged 28% in a single session.
I had previously cautioned that the move was highly vulnerable to a sharp correction, and that while a long position was justified, it should be taken with a reduced position size.
The sheer magnitude of the collapse, even with some bullish undertones and modest resilience in the bounce from the weekly lows, strongly suggests that another record high is unlikely in the near term. This extraordinary rally appears to be finished, and the most probable next phase is a period of erratic consolidation, marked by large swings and gradually diminishing volatility.
XAU/USD
Much of the analysis above regarding Silver also applies to Gold. That said, gold’s volatility was noticeably lower, and its price action showed greater resilience at the lows.
While gold is also likely to enter a period of sideways consolidation, the underlying structure suggests it may recover to the upside more quickly than silver.
Bottom Line
My preferred trade for the coming week is:
Long EUR/USD, contingent on a daily (New York) close above 1.2039.
A large ETH liquidation on Hyperliquid triggered a leverage-driven cascade, sending total crypto liquidations above $2.5 billion in 24 hours.
What to know:
More than $2.5 billion in crypto positions were liquidated over 24 hours, including a single $222.65 million ether position on the Hyperliquid exchange.
Ether led the sell-off, with over $1.15 billion in liquidations as prices dropped by as much as 17%, followed by roughly $788 million in bitcoin and nearly $200 million in Solana.
The liquidation wave was heavily skewed toward long positions and amplified by thin market liquidity, highlighting how leverage can fuel cascading price declines and sudden market reversals.
One trader suffered losses exceeding $220 million on an ether position as a renewed wave of forced liquidations rippled through crypto markets, driving total liquidations over the past 24 hours to nearly $2.6 billion.
The largest individual liquidation took place on decentralized derivatives exchange Hyperliquid, where an ETH-USD position valued at $222.65 million was erased, according to data from CoinGlass.
The sell-off unfolded as ether fell by as much as 17% over the past 24 hours, dragging down bitcoin and other major tokens in a thinly traded market.
In total, 434,945 traders were liquidated during the period, with losses overwhelmingly concentrated in long positions. About $2.42 billion of the $2.58 billion in total liquidations came from bullish bets, while short positions accounted for just $163 million.
Hyperliquid suffered the most severe impact, logging $1.09 billion in liquidations — almost entirely from long positions — representing more than 40% of total losses across exchanges. Bybit followed with $574.8 million, while Binance recorded roughly $258 million in liquidations.
Ether absorbed the bulk of the damage, with more than $1.15 billion in ETH positions wiped out over 24 hours. Bitcoin saw about $788 million in liquidations, and nearly $200 million in Solana positions were erased, according to liquidation heatmap data.
Liquidations happen when leveraged positions are automatically closed after prices move beyond a trader’s margin limits. These forced exits often lock in large losses and can amplify price swings by setting off cascading sell-offs during volatile periods.
Market participants track liquidation data to assess positioning and sentiment. Heavy long liquidations can point to panic-driven bottoms, while large short liquidations may signal the start of a squeeze. Sudden spikes also highlight overcrowded trades and areas where reversals may emerge.
When combined with open interest and funding rate data, liquidation metrics can help identify potential entry and exit points, particularly in overleveraged markets vulnerable to abrupt flushes or sharp rebounds.
Such liquidation-driven moves have become increasingly frequent during low-liquidity conditions, where relatively modest price moves can ripple through derivatives markets and trigger outsized reactions.
Gold and Bitcoin have diverged sharply in recent months, with Yardeni Research arguing that currency movements are becoming a key driver of that split.
In its latest report, the firm revisited the long-standing question of whether Bitcoin can be considered “digital gold,” pointing out that both assets are difficult to value since neither generates interest or dividends. However, Yardeni cautioned that Bitcoin’s purely digital form could make it “potentially vulnerable someday to hacking by quantum-computing algorithms,” whereas gold’s main drawback is the need for physical storage.
Bitcoin’s volatility has persisted. Yardeni noted that the cryptocurrency surged to a record near $125,000 in late 2025 before retreating toward $90,000.
Gold, by contrast, has been in a strong uptrend since it “decisively broke out” in March 2024. Prices have climbed roughly 2.5 times since then, moving above $3,000 an ounce in early 2025. The firm maintains its long-term outlook that gold could reach $10,000 by the end of the decade.
According to Yardeni Research, recent currency shifts are widening the gap between the two assets. The firm said a weaker U.S. dollar tends to hurt Bitcoin because it lowers Bitcoin’s value in other currencies, potentially encouraging foreign investors to sell. Some of those flows, it suggested, may be rotating into gold instead.
In addition, a softer dollar can put upward pressure on U.S. inflation, which would further support gold prices. Yardeni also noted that dollar weakness generally favors U.S. investors in overseas markets, reinforcing its overweight stance on emerging-market equities.
Bitcoin, the world’s largest cryptocurrency by market capitalisation, slid 6.53% to $78,719.63 by 12:48 p.m. ET (1748 GMT) on Saturday, extending losses from the previous session.
On Friday, bitcoin touched a low of $81,104 — its weakest level since November 21 — as the U.S. dollar strengthened following the selection of former Federal Reserve Governor Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair. Investors have voiced concerns that Warsh could pursue tighter liquidity conditions across the financial system.
Warsh has argued for sweeping changes at the central bank and has advocated, among other measures, reducing the size of the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet.
Bitcoin and other digital assets have often benefited from an expanded Fed balance sheet, typically gaining when abundant liquidity supported risk and speculative investments.
Brian Jacobsen, chief economist at Annex Wealth Management in Menomonee Falls, Wisconsin, said the Fed’s “oversized balance sheet, coupled with heavy-handed banking regulation,” had effectively trapped liquidity within Wall Street rather than allowing it to flow to the broader economy, contributing to asset bubbles in areas such as bonds, cryptocurrencies, metals and meme stocks.
Ether also dropped sharply, falling 11.76% to $2,387.77 on Saturday afternoon. Cryptocurrencies have struggled to find clear direction since their sharp decline last year, lagging behind strong rallies in gold and equities.
“Sometimes these price corrections can become self-reinforcing,” Jacobsen said, noting that Friday’s sudden sell-off had served as a reminder of market risk. He added that further selling in the coming days was “possible, if not likely.”
Cryptocurrencies are struggling during what had been expected to be a period of strong inflows and supportive regulation under President Donald Trump. Bitcoin, the market leader, has shed about one-third of its value since hitting record highs last October.
The total cryptocurrency market capitalisation dropped by about 5% to $2.82 trillion over the past 24 hours, briefly touching $2.78 trillion twice—its lowest level since April last year. As anticipated, weakness in commodity and equity markets added further pressure to crypto, triggering a sell-off on elevated volumes as traders tightened stop-loss orders after a prolonged period of consolidation. In our worst-case scenario, market cap could fall into the $1.8–2.0 trillion range, corresponding to a 161.8% extension of the initial downside move seen in October–November.
The Crypto Sentiment Index dropped to 16 by Friday, marking its lowest reading in six weeks and a return to extreme fear—a zone the market managed to escape for only two days this week. While such depressed sentiment is often viewed as a buying opportunity, we continue to stress that a more prudent strategy is to wait for a clear exit from extreme fear, helping to reduce the risk of sudden and sharp downside moves.
Bitcoin has fallen 6% over the past 24 hours, briefly dropping to $81K and revisiting the lows seen in late November. The market is now testing the resilience of a support level that previously absorbed heavy selling pressure last year. About $10K lower lies a zone where prior cycle highs from 2021–2022 and the first half of 2024 converge. If that area fails to hold, Bitcoin could slide toward the $52–60K range.
In the near term, however, attention should remain on BTC’s price action around $80K. This level may prove difficult to break decisively and is viewed by many market participants as an attractive buying zone.
More than 22% of Bitcoin’s circulating supply is now underwater. Glassnode identifies a key support level at $83,400; a break below this could open the door to a drop toward the “true average market price” near $80,700. A deeper decline risks pushing long-term holders into losses, potentially accelerating selling pressure.
According to Wintermute Ventures, speculative excess in crypto is likely to fade this year, with digital assets evolving into the core financial and settlement layer of the internet. In this scenario, stablecoins are expected to emerge as the primary medium of exchange in the digital economy.
Santiment reports that Ethereum balances held on exchanges have fallen for a sixth straight month, driven by strong interest in staking. Since July last year, exchange-held ETH has declined by roughly one-third to about 8.15 million tokens.
TRM Labs estimates that illegal cryptocurrency transaction volumes hit a record $158 billion in 2025, up 145% year on year. During the same period, hackers stole $2.87 billion across nearly 150 separate attacks.
Meanwhile, the USD1 stablecoin issued by World Liberty Financial, a company linked to US President Donald Trump, reached a market capitalisation of $5 billion in under a year, making it the world’s fifth-largest stablecoin.
Bitcoin tumbled sharply on Friday, sliding to its lowest level in more than two months as forced liquidations swept through leveraged positions and investors assessed the potential implications of a change in U.S. Federal Reserve leadership.
The world’s largest cryptocurrency was last down 6.4% at $82,620.3 as of 02:15 ET (07:15 GMT). Prices touched an intraday low of $81,201.5, coming close to breaching the April lows had the selloff extended further.
Crypto Markets See $1.7 Billion in Liquidations
Data from CoinGlass showed that roughly $1.68 billion in leveraged positions were liquidated over the past 24 hours amid the selloff, with about 93% of those losses coming from long positions—traders positioned for higher prices.
Approximately 270,000 traders saw their positions forcibly closed, intensifying the decline across Bitcoin and the broader digital asset market.
Liquidations occur when exchanges automatically shut leveraged positions that fail to meet margin requirements as prices move against traders, a dynamic that often amplifies volatility and accelerates downside moves in risk-on markets.
Traders Watch Trump’s Pick for Fed Chair
Friday’s selloff coincided with rising market unease over U.S. monetary policy leadership. President Donald Trump said he would announce his choice to replace Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell on Friday morning, fueling speculation that former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh could be nominated for the role. Reports indicate the White House is preparing to put Warsh forward as the next Fed chair.
Warsh is widely viewed as favoring a tighter approach to the Fed’s balance sheet and overall policy stance, a shift that could drain liquidity that has supported risk assets, including cryptocurrencies.
Markets have responded with broader risk-off positioning, a firmer U.S. dollar, and rising yields, while crypto prices have come under renewed pressure. Central bank policy direction plays a crucial role in shaping interest rates, liquidity, and risk-asset valuations—key drivers for high-beta assets such as Bitcoin.
Altcoins Slide as Ether and XRP Fall 7%
Most altcoins also slumped on Friday as liquidation-driven selling rippled through the market.
Ethereum, the world’s second-largest cryptocurrency, fell more than 7% to $2,749.92, while XRP, the third-largest, also dropped 7% to $1.75.
Elsewhere, Solana slid 6.5%, Cardano plunged 8%, and Polygon retreated by more than 5%.
Among meme tokens, Dogecoin declined 6%, while $TRUMP fell 3.5%.
Bitcoin hovered near one-month lows on Monday, extending last week’s sharp losses as investors stayed cautious ahead of the Federal Reserve’s policy meeting and amid heavy liquidations in leveraged crypto markets.
The world’s largest cryptocurrency was last down 0.7% at $88,081 as of 09:36 ET (14:36 GMT).
Bitcoin has fallen more than 6% over the past week, pressured by a broader risk-off mood driven by uncertainty over global monetary policy, volatility in US Treasury yields, and sharp swings in foreign exchange markets.
Crypto markets remain under pressure as heavy liquidations and Federal Reserve caution weigh on sentiment.
Last week’s selloff was intensified by forced liquidations in derivatives markets, where highly leveraged positions were rapidly unwound. Market data shows more than $1 billion in leveraged crypto positions were liquidated, with long Bitcoin trades making up most of the losses, amplifying the downward price move.
Bitcoin had surged earlier this year on hopes of easier US monetary policy and steady inflows into spot ETFs, but sentiment has since turned cautious as investors reassess the interest-rate outlook and cut risk exposure amid volatility in currency and bond markets.
Focus now shifts to the Federal Reserve’s two-day policy meeting ending Wednesday. While rates are expected to remain unchanged, markets will watch Chair Jerome Powell’s comments closely for signals on the timing and extent of potential rate cuts later this year.
Investors are also watching signals on liquidity conditions and the Fed’s balance sheet, both key drivers for crypto markets.
Adding to the uncertainty, traders are awaiting US President Donald Trump’s expected announcement of his nominee for the next Federal Reserve chair, an appointment that could shape future monetary policy, especially if the new leadership is viewed as more dovish or closely aligned with the administration’s economic agenda.
Strategy increases its Bitcoin holdings with a $264 million purchase.
Strategy said it bought 2,932 more Bitcoins for about $264 million between Jan. 20 and Jan. 25, paying an average price of $90,061 per coin, according to a regulatory filing released Monday.
The purchase raises the company’s total Bitcoin holdings to 712,647 tokens, valued at roughly $62.5 billion.
Led by Michael Saylor, the firm has accumulated its Bitcoin position at an average cost of $76,037 per coin, bringing total investment to about $54.2 billion, including related expenses.
Crypto price today: Altcoins remain weak
Most altcoins stayed under pressure on Monday, extending losses amid cautious sentiment. Ethereum slipped 0.4% to $2,916.08, while XRP rose 1.5% to $1.91. Solana fell 1.8%, with Cardano and Polygon largely flat. Among meme tokens, Dogecoin edged up 0.3%, while $TRUMP declined 1%.
Markets managed to rebound after Tuesday’s sell-off, but the bounce—despite attracting attention—fell short of fully recouping the earlier losses. More importantly, a significant “bull trap” remains in place for the S&P 500. Technical signals for the index continue to be mixed, with momentum indicators such as stochastics failing to move back into overbought territory—a key condition needed to support a sustained rally.
Bitcoin faces more significant challenges. Yesterday’s rise alone is far from sufficient to undo what was beginning to resemble the formation of a right-hand base. That said, this still appears to be the early stages of building a new base and could represent an attractive buying opportunity for investors willing to hold through what may be a year-long process, potentially targeting a move toward $125K. For now, technical indicators remain net bearish, and a break below $85K would invalidate any bullish outlook.
The Nasdaq has mounted a counter-trend bounce following the breakdown, but the symmetrical triangle pattern has already resolved, meaning attention now shifts to identifying new support and resistance levels. There is still a potential bullish scenario if price action evolves into a bullish ascending triangle.
On the other hand, the Russell 2000 shows the potential to form a bearish “evening star” pattern, though this would require a gap lower today. Setting that possibility aside, the index remains firmly in rally mode and is far from any “bull trap” conditions. Overall, technical indicators are net bullish.
For today, bulls may want to focus on Bitcoin, while bears should monitor the Russell 2000 for signs that a bearish “evening star” pattern could emerge.
Bitcoin declined on Friday, rounding out a weak week as easing tensions between the U.S. and Greenland, along with a major purchase by Strategy, failed to revive demand for cryptocurrencies.
Risk appetite during the Asian session was further constrained by a Bank of Japan meeting and warnings from U.S. President Donald Trump about possible military action against Iran.
Safe-haven assets such as gold and other precious metals surged to record highs amid rising demand for physical stores of value, while Bitcoin largely underperformed compared with bullion. The world’s largest cryptocurrency slipped 0.5% to $89,517.3 by 00:53 ET (05:53 GMT).
Bitcoin on track for 5% weekly drop, ignores positive signals
Although Bitcoin posted modest gains earlier this week after Trump softened his stance on Greenland, the world’s largest cryptocurrency quickly reversed direction, drifting back toward one-month lows.
Bitcoin was on course for a roughly 5% weekly decline, finding little support from Strategy Inc. (NASDAQ:MSTR) despite the company’s disclosure of a $2.1 billion Bitcoin purchase.
In recent months, Strategy has also become a source of concern for the market, as investors questioned the long-term sustainability of its Bitcoin treasury strategy, particularly amid Bitcoin’s continued price underperformance.
Bitcoin and the broader crypto market were further pressured by delays to a long-anticipated crypto regulation bill, after leading U.S. exchange Coinbase Global Inc. (NASDAQ:COIN) opposed the legislation in its current form.
Retail demand for Bitcoin remained subdued, as strong performance in technology stocks—driven by enthusiasm around artificial intelligence—absorbed much of the available investment capital.
The Coinbase Bitcoin Premium Index, which tracks the difference between Bitcoin’s U.S. price on Coinbase and the global average, has shown Bitcoin trading at a near-persistent discount in the U.S. since mid-December, signaling continued weakness in retail interest within the world’s largest crypto market.
Crypto prices today: Altcoins slide, headed for sharp weekly losses
Broader cryptocurrency prices declined alongside Bitcoin and were on track for significantly steeper losses this week.
Ether, the world’s second-largest cryptocurrency, dropped 2.4% to $2,946.35 and was heading for an 11.2% weekly decline. XRP fell 1.5%, while BNB slipped 0.1%, with both tokens set to post weekly losses of around 6% to 8%.
Solana and Cardano each declined 1.5% and were down roughly 10% for the week. Among memecoins, Dogecoin fell 1.3%, while $TRUMP eased 0.9%.
Pi Network rebounded about 1% on Tuesday from a key support level after falling roughly 4% on Monday.
Data from PiScan showed more than 4 million PI tokens were withdrawn over the past 24 hours, signaling retail efforts to hedge against further downside.
From a technical perspective, PI remains under heavy selling pressure, with momentum turning bearish and leaving the token vulnerable to additional losses.
Pi Network (PI) was up about 1% at press time on Tuesday, marking a modest rebound after hitting a new record low of $0.1502 on Monday. Over the past 24 hours, mainnet holders have withdrawn more than 4 million PI tokens from centralized exchanges that support Pi Network. Despite the slight recovery, the technical outlook for PI remains bearish, with momentum indicators pointing to sustained selling pressure.
Retail buying limits further downside
PiScan data shows that centralized exchange reserves fell by 4.24 million PI tokens over the past 24 hours, signaling substantial withdrawals. This points to strong buying interest, which helped cap losses and secure a daily close above $0.1900. A continued decline in exchange reserves could ease supply pressure and raise the chances of a rebound in PI.
Technical outlook: Is PI at risk of further downside?
Pi Network was holding above the $0.1900 level at the time of writing on Tuesday, roughly 30% above Monday’s low of $0.1502. The rebound coincided with sizable exchange withdrawals and helped prevent a breakdown below the $0.1919 support level.
However, the downward-sloping 20-day and 50-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) continue to point to a prevailing downtrend.
Momentum indicators on the daily chart remain decisively bearish. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) has turned lower from the zero line, crossing below the signal line with an expanding negative histogram. Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits near 30, hovering around oversold territory and reflecting the recent selloff.
A daily close below $0.1919 could deepen the bearish trend, exposing downside targets at the S1 and S2 Pivot Points of $0.1835 and $0.1632, respectively.
PI/USDT daily price chart.
Any rebound in PI is likely to encounter resistance at the falling 20-day and 50-day EMAs, currently at $0.2045 and $0.2116, respectively.
Volatility across major CoinDesk indices stayed low, with bitcoin maintaining its position above the key $94,500 breakout level despite limited price movement. Dash (DASH) led the market, climbing 15% on the day and pushing its weekly gain to 141% as most other altcoins cooled. Meanwhile, altcoins showed relative strength against major cryptocurrencies, with the CoinDesk 80 Index ticking higher as traders waited for new catalysts from U.S. markets and global political developments.
Crypto market volatility slowed sharply on Friday, with all major CoinDesk indexes moving less than 1% since midnight UTC. The subdued action comes as Bitcoin continues to trade above the key $94,500 level, which it broke earlier this week after months of range-bound movement.
Zcash, APT, and Polygon (POL) each recorded slight losses, while Dash—a privacy-focused payments token—continued its strong start to the year, climbing 15% and extending its weekly gain to 141%. The market is now looking for its next catalyst as political unrest in Iran and Venezuela revives crypto’s “safe-haven” narrative, highlighted by the divergence between digital assets and U.S. equities, which underperformed BTC and ETH this week.
Derivatives market positioning
Exchanges have unwound nearly $240 million in leveraged crypto futures positions. Total futures open interest across the market has eased to $143 billion from $146 billion, signaling a cooling in demand for leveraged trading.
Bitcoin’s volatility slump persists. Volmex’s 30-day implied volatility now reflects an average daily move of about 2.5% over the next month. Ethereum’s 30-day implied volatility has also fallen, reaching its lowest level since early 2024.
ZEC saw futures open interest drop 14% in 24 hours, contributing to capital outflows across most major tokens, including bitcoin, ether, solana, and XRP. In contrast, Monero stood out with an 8% increase in open interest.
ZEC’s annualized funding rates plunged to -50%, indicating strong demand for bearish, short positions. This also suggests that downside bets may be becoming crowded, a setup that can often precede a potential short squeeze.
In the options market, block trades showed a large short position in bitcoin’s $112,000 call expiring on February 6. This may have been paired with a long spot position as part of a covered call strategy to generate additional yield. For Ethereum, block flows leaned toward the iron condor strategy, which is typically used to benefit from a range-bound price environment.
Crypto token overview
DASH once again took the lead on Friday, climbing over 15% since midnight UTC, even as most of the altcoin market stayed subdued following an earlier rally at the start of the week. This could be a constructive signal for the broader altcoin space, as DASH had also been the first mover during Asian trading on Tuesday, hours before the wider market broke higher.
XTZ also displayed strength, advancing 8.3% from a morning low of $0.57 to $0.62. The CoinDesk 80 Index (CD80), which tracks a broader range of altcoins, is up 0.68% since midnight, while the CoinDesk 20 (CD20) is largely flat—suggesting relative outperformance among altcoins as major tokens move sideways.
Traders are now watching the U.S. market open to see whether traditional markets might inject volatility ahead of the weekend, a period that is typically marked by lighter volume and liquidity.
On Wednesday, Bitcoin is trading above $95,000, having recently broken through a crucial resistance level. Ethereum continues its upward momentum, currently trading above $3,300 after gaining nearly 7% this week. Meanwhile, XRP has bounced back, holding support near its 50-day EMA at $2.17, indicating the potential for further gains.
On Wednesday, Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH), and Ripple (XRP) continued trading higher, following gains of over 4%, 7%, and 5% respectively the previous day. BTC closed above a critical resistance level, while ETH and XRP held firm support at key price points. These top three cryptocurrencies by market cap appear poised to extend their rallies, with targets set at $100,000 for BTC, $3,500 for ETH, and $2.35 for XRP.
Bitcoin Breaks and Closes Above Key Resistance at $94,253
Bitcoin found support near the former upper consolidation zone around $90,000 on January 8 and showed a modest recovery through Monday. On Tuesday, BTC surged over 4%, closing above the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level—measured from the April low of $74,508 to the October all-time high of $126,199—at $94,253. As of Wednesday, Bitcoin is trading near $95,300.
If Bitcoin maintains its upward momentum, it could push further toward the important psychological milestone of $100,000.
The daily chart’s Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 66, above the neutral midpoint of 50 and trending higher, signaling strengthening bullish momentum. Additionally, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator shows a sustained bullish crossover, with increasing green histogram bars above the neutral line, reinforcing the optimistic outlook.
BTC/USDT daily chart
Conversely, if Bitcoin undergoes a pullback, it may drop further toward the critical support level at $94,253.
Ethereum Bounces Back Following 50-Day EMA Test
Ethereum found support near its 50-day EMA at $3,139 last week and remained around that level through Monday. On Tuesday, ETH surged over 7%, closing above $3,325. As of Wednesday, it’s trading near $3,200.
If the upward momentum persists, Ethereum could push toward the December 10 high of $3,447. Similar to Bitcoin, Ethereum’s RSI and MACD indicators show bullish signals, reinforcing a positive outlook.
ETH/USDT daily chart
However, should Ethereum experience a pullback, it may drop further toward the 50-day EMA support at $3,139.
XRP bulls aiming for the $2.35 mark
XRP found support near its 50-day EMA at $2.07 last week and remained around that level through Monday. On Tuesday, XRP climbed over 5%. As of Wednesday, it is trading close to $2.16.
If the rally continues, XRP could push higher toward the daily resistance at $2.35. Similar to Bitcoin and Ethereum, XRP’s momentum indicators, including RSI and MACD, display bullish signals, reinforcing a positive outlook.
XRP/USDT daily chart
On the other hand, if XRP faces a pullback, it could extend the decline toward the 50-day EMA at $2.07.
Bitwise’s Chief Investment Officer, Matt Hougan, criticized the notion that Bitcoin is unsuitable for investment and 401(k) plans due to its volatility, pointing out that certain stocks can experience even greater price fluctuations.
Hougan’s remarks came on the same day that U.S. Senator Elizabeth Warren urged the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to clarify how it plans to manage the risks associated with including cryptocurrencies in retirement funds.
In August of last year, U.S. President Donald Trump signed an executive order directing the Labor Department to reconsider restrictions on alternative assets in defined-contribution plans, potentially allowing cryptocurrencies to be included in 401(k) retirement accounts.
In a Monday interview with Investopedia Express Live, Matt Hougan criticized previous efforts by management firms like Vanguard and regulatory advice discouraging Bitcoin’s inclusion in 401(k)s as “ridiculous.”
“This is simply another asset class. Yes, it experiences price fluctuations and carries risk. However, over the past year, Bitcoin has been less volatile than Nvidia stock, yet there are no restrictions preventing 401(k) providers from offering Nvidia stock,” Hougan stated.
In 2025, Nvidia’s stock experienced a dramatic 120% price swing, dropping to around $94.31 in April before surging past $207 by October. During the same period, Bitcoin fluctuated between $76,000 and $126,080, a 65% swing. The inclusion of crypto assets in 401(k) retirement plans remains a key goal for crypto companies seeking wider retail adoption and increased legitimacy within the financial system.
Warren demands SEC answers on crypto in 401(k)
Meanwhile, U.S. Senator Elizabeth Warren is pressing the SEC for clarity on how it plans to manage risks associated with 401(k) plans investing in “alternative investments” like cryptocurrencies.
In an open letter released Monday, Warren expressed concerns that including crypto in retirement accounts may not benefit participants due to higher fees and expenses typically associated with these assets, alongside crypto’s inherent volatility.
“For most Americans, their 401(k) is a crucial source of retirement security, not a venue for risky financial speculation. Introducing crypto into these accounts could expose workers and families to significant losses,” she warned.
Warren has called on SEC Chair Paul Atkins to confirm by January 27 whether the regulator considers volatility when valuing crypto holdings of publicly traded companies.
She also seeks information on whether the SEC has evaluated manipulative practices in crypto markets and if it plans to publish research and educational materials to improve investor awareness.
Cryptocurrency Inclusion in 401(k) Plans Will Become Standard Over Time
Beyond President Trump’s executive order, in May the Department of Labor’s Employee Benefits Security Administration took a neutral position on cryptocurrency in 401(k) plans. They neither endorsed nor opposed it, having withdrawn a 2022 compliance guidance that previously discouraged crypto investments in retirement accounts.
Hougan noted that while it’s uncertain whether 401(k) providers will begin investing in crypto during 2026, he expects it to happen eventually and become normalized.
“These institutions move slowly, but the trend is clear. Over time, crypto will be treated like any other asset — which is exactly how it should be,” he added.
Bitcoin’s price trend moved differently as Nasdaq futures dropped by nearly 0.8%.
Bitcoin increased by 1% amid growing tensions between President Trump and Fed Chairman Powell, which rattled markets and led to declines in U.S. stock futures and the dollar. Powell described the legal challenge as politically driven, intended to pressure the central bank into aggressive interest rate cuts. However, prediction markets do not anticipate this conflict resulting in Powell leaving his position prematurely.
Bitcoin climbed 1% Monday afternoon Hong Kong time as escalating tensions between President Donald Trump and Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell unsettled investors, pushing both U.S. stock futures and the dollar index down.
Bitcoin reached $92,000 but remained within last week’s range of $89,000 to $95,000, according to CoinDesk data. Meanwhile, Nasdaq futures declined 0.8%, S&P 500 futures dropped 0.5%, and the dollar index eased to 99.00 from Friday’s high of 99.26.
Typically, BTC tends to follow the Nasdaq’s movements, but this time it diverged, suggesting growing safe haven demand for the cryptocurrency as investors seek a “hideout” amid the intensifying Trump-Powell conflict. Supporters of BTC have long praised it as an anti-establishment asset and a safeguard against reckless fiscal and monetary policies. Meanwhile, gold, a classic safe haven, also climbed to a record high of $4,600 per ounce.
Tensions between the Federal Reserve and the White House intensified over the weekend after Powell revealed that the Trump administration had threatened him with a criminal indictment related to the renovation of the Fed’s headquarters.
Powell dismissed the indictment as politically motivated, aimed at pressuring the Fed into cutting interest rates.
Trump has long been critical of Federal Reserve policies, especially its hesitance to aggressively lower rates to stimulate economic growth. Since taking office in 2025, he has frequently pushed Fed Chair Jerome Powell to reduce rates more sharply, labeling him a “numbskull” and threatening to make changes to increase White House influence over monetary policy.
Trump has consistently called for interest rates to fall to 1% or below. Although the Fed cut rates by 25 basis points last month to 3.5%, it is expected to hold steady at least until March and is unlikely to return to ultra-low levels anytime soon.
Despite the escalating attacks from Trump’s team, prediction markets do not anticipate an early departure for Powell, whose term ends in May this year.
However, persistent assaults on central banks, especially amid ongoing inflation, can undermine investor confidence and destabilize the domestic currency.
The sharp decline of Turkey’s lira in recent years, triggered by President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s interference with central bank independence, stands as a cautionary example. Still, the dollar’s position as the global reserve currency makes a severe collapse in the U.S. less likely.
Reflecting on the start of this century, the first striking observation is our national shortsightedness. After surviving Y2K and the dot-com crash in 2000, our leaders assumed the path ahead would be smooth sailing from year one onward.
However, reality proved otherwise, beginning with a series of black swan events, notably the attacks on the World Trade Center and Pentagon on September 11. While such events are inherently unpredictable, it’s remarkable that the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) economists confidently forecasted in 2001 a future of continuous budget surpluses, anticipating the complete elimination of national debt by 2011.
For reasons unknown, the CBO issues 10-year federal spending and revenue projections, despite having no solid factual or practical foundation to accurately forecast beyond a year or two—akin to trying to predict the weather a year in advance.
The January 2001 CBO report highlights this myopia. Their projections simply extended current trends indefinitely without grounding in reality. Under this unrealistic mandate, the CBO projected a cumulative surplus of $5.6 trillion for 2002–2011.
In reality, deficits over that decade totaled $6.1 trillion—a swing of $11.7 trillion. It would have been much simpler to just flip a plus sign to a minus. The projections failed to account for the soaring costs of Bush’s “War on Terror” post-9/11, which led to prolonged wars in Afghanistan and Iraq, the bursting of the real estate bubble, and massive TARP bailouts to rescue large banks.
In short, this is a summary of CBO’s flawed foresight:
The first takeaway from this bleak forecast is that the CBO economists assumed deficits would increase in a smooth, predictable fashion—almost as if they were drawing a straight line with minor fluctuations, rather than reflecting the unpredictable realities of economic growth.
A second point is that the 2003 Bush tax cuts were not the main driver of the deficits. In fact, annual deficits dropped significantly—from $413 billion in fiscal year 2004 (which began October 1, 2003) to just $161 billion in fiscal year 2007. This means the deficit shrank by more than half during the four years following the tax cuts and before the 2007 real estate crash.
While much of this now feels like distant history, the ongoing wars and the Federal Reserve’s drastic response to the 2008 financial crisis—keeping interest rates near zero for eight years, essentially through the entire Obama administration—contributed to massive deficits that have persisted through to today, especially in the five years following the COVID-19 pandemic.
Since 2001, U.S. federal deficits have averaged about $1 billion annually, but that figure has surged to over $2 trillion per year since 2020, according to the U.S. Treasury.
Today, the total federal deficit stands at $38 trillion, which amounts to roughly $110,000 owed per American—far from the anticipated surpluses once projected.
Following a Challenging 2000–2009, Markets Surged in the First Quarter
What about the markets? After nearly a “lost decade” lasting nine years from March 2000 to March 2009, all major market indexes have experienced remarkable growth—particularly gold relative to the U.S. dollar.
By March 9, 2009, three of the four major indexes—the S&P 500, NASDAQ, and Russell 2000—had fallen by 50% since the decade began (while the Dow was down 40%), but they bounced back strongly from 2009 through 2025:
Over the same 25-year period, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 83%, which means the real market gains were somewhat diminished.
The U.S. dollar performed even worse, losing about 10% in value overall (and 8% against the euro), while gold and silver surged more than 15 times in value:
The first-quarter returns were decent, but the strong performance of gold and silver signals that the dollar—and the CBO’s deficit forecasts—cannot be relied on in the long run. In fact, President Trump has set a goal for 2026 to deliberately weaken the dollar against the Chinese yuan to “help” exporters boost overseas sales. Much of the talk about the dominance of the “King Dollar” is just rhetoric. In reality, many politicians aim to devalue their currencies to encourage trade, turning paper money into a “race to the bottom,” while gold quietly holds its value, watching from the sidelines.
This brings us to the 2025 summary—a major victory for precious metals as the dollar dropped by 10%.
2025 Brought Massive Gains for Precious Metals
The year 2025 exemplified the key trends seen over the past 25 years—while the stock market continued to climb, gold and silver surged even faster. Although inflation is easing, gold today serves less as an inflation hedge and more as a safeguard against crises, a hedge against the dollar, and increasingly, a hedge against cryptocurrency volatility.
In 2025, the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) dropped by 10%, allowing major global currencies to gain between 5% and 15%. Meanwhile, the poorest-performing investments of 2025 brought good news for consumers through lower food and energy prices:
So, if 2026 mirrors the gains of 2025, it will surely be a rewarding year for most investors.
Pump.fun slid 11% on Wednesday from its 50-day EMA and now risks breaking below the 20-day EMA
Story has fallen more than 6% in the past 24 hours and is closing in on the $2 psychological floor
Pudgy Penguins is retesting the 50-day EMA as buying strength weakens following Wednesday’s 9% pullback
Pump.fun (PUMP), Story (IP), and Pudgy Penguins (PENGU) have come under strong selling pressure in the past 24 hours. PUMP and IP were unable to break above their 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), triggering Wednesday’s retreat, while PENGU currently sits on its 50-day EMA. Overall, technical indicators continue to point to a bearish setup given the ongoing downward trend.
Weakening Bullish Momentum Puts Pump.fun at Risk of Further Downside
Pump.fun trades above the 20-day EMA at $0.002248 at press time on Thursday, following an 11% drop from the 50-day EMA at $0.002624 on the previous day, breaking the eight-day streak of uptrend.
If the meme-coin launchpad token slips below $0.0002248, losses could deepen toward the $0.002000 psychological level, with further downside targeting the S1 Pivot at $0.001262.
Daily-chart indicators show fading buyer strength: the RSI has eased to 51 and is drifting toward the midpoint, while the MACD has flattened, with shrinking green histograms pointing to weakening bullish momentum.
PUMP/USDT daily price chart.
If PUMP rallies back above the 50-day EMA at $0.002624, the next upside target would be the R1 Pivot Point at $0.002983.
Story hits the crucial crossroads at $2.00
Story trades around $2.00 at the time of writing on Thursday, marking its third consecutive bearish day. The meme coin is down 2%, extending the 4% decline from the previous day and risking the 20-day EMA at $1.91.
If IP falls below $1.91, it could further decline to the S1 Pivot Point at $1.22.
Similar to PUMP, the technical indicators on the daily chart point to declining buying pressure in Story. The RSI is at 53, slipping closer to the halfway line while the MACD approaches the signal line risking a crossover which would indicate renewed bearish momentum.
PENGU/USDT daily price chart.
To reinstate an upward trend, IP should exceed the 50-day EMA at $2.33, potentially targeting the R1 Pivot Point at $2.41.
Pudgy Penguins Faces a Potential Breakdown Below the 50-Day EMA
Pudgy Penguins is currently trading above the 50-day EMA at $0.01179 after Wednesday’s 9% pullback. At press time, PENGU is hovering near $0.01200, just below the R1 Pivot Point at $0.01193.
A drop beneath this zone could push the token toward immediate support at the 20-day EMA of $0.01091, near the key $0.01000 psychological level.
Like PUMP and IP, PENGU’s daily chart signals weakening demand, with technical indicators pointing to fading buying strength.
PENGU/USDT daily price chart.
On the upside, a recovery in PENGU could push the price toward the R1 Pivot Point at $0.01518.
Ethereum demonstrates strength with solid weekly and monthly gains, even as futures positions cool down.
Gold is projected to hit new highs in 2026, driven by declining interest rates, central bank purchases, and geopolitical uncertainties.
Good morning, Asia! Here’s what’s moving the markets today:
Crypto markets kick off the year in a phase of adjustment rather than decline, with Bitcoin holding steady above $90,000 and Ether showing renewed strength as institutions reset their positions.
As Hong Kong opened its Wednesday trading session, Bitcoin dipped slightly in the short term but stayed within a range after surpassing the key $90,000 mark.
“With stocks, gold, and other precious metals at record highs, we view the situation as a tug-of-war between prices correcting upward to align with these assets and potentially declining over the coming months to follow the 4-year cycle,” said George Mandres, crypto analyst at trading firm XBTO, in a note to CoinDesk. He added that the latter scenario “can quickly become a self-fulfilling prophecy.”
So far, neither upward nor downward pressure has taken control of Bitcoin’s price. Rather than a steep correction, Bitcoin has traded sideways, indicating a phase of digestion rather than distribution. Mandres highlighted the calendar effect as a key factor distinguishing the current situation from late 2025.
“What’s changed now compared to a few weeks ago, aside from Bitcoin surpassing $90K, is that a new year has begun, resetting P&Ls to zero, and investors are looking to allocate capital to attractive risk/reward opportunities,” he explained.
Ethereum presents a slightly different picture. Although ETH has outperformed Bitcoin over weekly and monthly periods, futures data show that positioning has cooled.
Bradley Park, founder of DNTV Research, noted that CME Ethereum futures open interest provides valuable insight beyond spot price movements.
“Increasing open interest has largely reflected institutional activity through DAT-style ETF arbitrage trades, while declining open interest signals unwinding positions,” Park said in a note to CoinDesk.
That unwinding now seems well underway.
“The recent pullback looks less like a structural shift and more like a loss of momentum, with positioning resetting to roughly July 2025 levels,” Park added.
Crucially, this reset has not triggered a sharp spot market sell-off.
A recent Glassnode report echoes this theme across assets. Options markets have de-risked significantly, with contracting open interest and rising volatility expectations. Meanwhile, U.S. spot ETF flows have returned to net inflows, indicating renewed institutional demand but also greater sensitivity to near-term profit-taking.
Overall, these signals suggest consolidation and rotation rather than a widespread risk-off selloff. Bitcoin is balancing conflicting macro factors without losing its trend, while Ethereum appears less crowded and better positioned to benefit if institutional flows pick up again.
Market Movement
BTC: Bitcoin is consolidating above $90,000, trading sideways after a recent rise. The price action reflects balance between macro support and caution from the market cycle, rather than fresh selling pressure.
ETH: Ether is hovering around $3,247, showing slight declines on short-term charts but maintaining strong gains over weekly and monthly periods, demonstrating resilience despite a recent pullback in futures positioning.
Gold: Following a nearly 65% rally in 2025, gold is expected to reach new highs in 2026, driven by falling interest rates, ongoing central bank purchases, and geopolitical uncertainties.
Nikkei 225: Japan’s Nikkei 225 dropped 0.45% on Wednesday as Asia-Pacific markets showed mixed results. Meanwhile, Australia’s ASX 200 gained 0.38% after inflation data came in below expectations.
Dogecoin rose another 2% following a 4% rebound on Sunday, marking its fifth consecutive day of gains.
Shiba Inu paused after surging nearly 12% on Sunday, having broken out of a falling channel formation.
Pepe is approaching its 200-day EMA, with bulls eyeing a breakout after a 77% rally over the past four days.
Meme coins including Dogecoin (DOGE), Shiba Inu (SHIB), and Pepe (PEPE) are leading the broader crypto market rally, fueled by the U.S. cross-border operation to detain Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro. Dogecoin has extended its advance for a fifth straight session, while SHIB and PEPE are taking a brief pause. Despite this consolidation, the technical outlook for the major meme coins remains bullish.
Venezuela is reportedly shifting from the petrodollar to cryptocurrencies like Tether’s USDT stablecoin to settle crude oil sales, with an estimated value between $10 billion and $15 billion. It’s believed that Maduro converted USDT into Bitcoin (BTC) to prevent his wallet from being frozen.
Along with a $2 billion gold-for-Bitcoin swap conducted between 2018 and 2020 and the seizure of BTC mining assets, Venezuela’s shadow reserve is estimated to hold around 600,000 BTC.
If the US Strategic Bitcoin Reserve seizes or absorbs Venezuela’s BTC holdings, it would effectively reduce Bitcoin’s available supply, potentially triggering a surge in demand. The current market recovery appears to reflect anticipation of this possible supply constraint.
Dogecoin Gains Bullish Momentum Above $0.15
Dogecoin rose 2% on Monday, building on Sunday’s 4% gain. The dog-themed meme coin has surpassed its 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $0.14339 and is trading above the key $0.15 level.
This recovery follows a breakout rally from a descending wedge pattern on the daily logarithmic chart. The next target for Dogecoin is the 200-day EMA at $0.18202, which aligns with a resistance zone between $0.18100 and $0.18500.
Momentum indicators show strong buying pressure: the Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 65, leaving room before overbought territory, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) continues to climb with green histogram bars, signaling growing bullish momentum.
If DOGE slips below the key support near $0.14399, it could negate the recent breakout and expose the meme coin to further downside pressure, potentially testing the next psychological floor around $0.13 or lower. Technical breakdowns below critical support often increase the risk of deeper corrections, as previous analyses have shown DOGE facing renewed bearish momentum if it fails to hold near support levels.
Shiba Inu Pauses After Four-Day Rally, Holding Above 50-Day EMA
Shiba Inu surged nearly 12% on Sunday, breaking above the resistance trendline formed by the October 13 and November 11 highs. As of Monday, SHIB has pulled back slightly, down over 1%.
If the recovery continues, Shiba Inu could target the 200-day EMA at $0.00001065.
Similar to Dogecoin, daily momentum indicators show strong bullish momentum for SHIB. The RSI stands at 65, approaching the overbought zone, while the MACD has crossed above the zero line with increasing green histogram bars, signaling growing upward momentum.
On the downside, if SHIB falls below the 50-day EMA at $0.00000821, it would invalidate the recent breakout, potentially exposing the coin to a drop toward the October 10 low of $0.00000678.
Pepe Eyes Breakout Above 200-Day EMA
Pepe slipped nearly 2% on Monday after soaring almost 18% on Sunday, pausing its four-day rally that has surged over 77%. This pullback reflects resistance near the 200-day EMA at $0.00000749.
If PEPE breaks above this level, the rally could extend toward the September 25 low at $0.00000886.
The RSI stands at 79, indicating overbought conditions and potentially unsustainable buying pressure. However, the rising MACD suggests continued bullish momentum.
On the downside, a potential reversal in PEPE may test the former resistance, now support zone, around $0.00000650.
The entire crypto market, tracking over 18,000 tokens across centralized and decentralized exchanges, is currently valued at nearly $3 trillion. This represents a 31% decline from the all-time high of $4.37 trillion recorded in early October, just before the recent crypto market crash.
Bitcoin, the largest cryptocurrency by market cap, is hovering around $88,000, accounting for more than half of the total market value at $1.77 trillion. Despite its dominant position, Bitcoin is poised to end the year with a negative annual return.
Since 2012, this marks the fourth year Bitcoin has underperformed, albeit by a significantly smaller margin compared to previous down years. For context, Bitcoin’s annual losses were -50.2% in 2014, -72.1% in 2018, and -62% in 2022. If Bitcoin maintains its current price level near $88,000, its annual underperformance in 2025 would be the “best of the worst” at around -6%.
Compared to Bitcoin, traditional asset classes like stocks and gold/silver have delivered substantially better returns this year on average. This contrast raises important questions about crypto’s position and outlook heading into 2026.
Is the Crypto Market Mature Enough for Significant Exposure?
The core purpose of the blockchain ecosystem is to transform the traditional money system through trustless finance. In simple terms, it leverages advances in cryptography combined with a full software stack to make transacting value as seamless as sending a message on an app.
While online banking and payment processors like PayPal have long provided similar convenience, the blockchain ecosystem offers a fundamental overhaul. Instead of relying on a single intermediary that acts as a bottleneck, automated smart contracts on an immutable ledger—the blockchain—execute all value transfers autonomously.
This decentralized approach eliminates single points of failure, increases transparency, and enhances security, paving the way for a new era of financial innovation.
This newly reinvented financial system—decentralized finance (DeFi)—has shown tremendous promise. Its total value locked (TVL) skyrocketed from $600 million in 2020 to $176 billion by late 2021, marking an astonishing growth of over 29,000%. Such rapid expansion is a clear indicator of a nascent industry emerging.
However, following the FTX collapse in late 2022 and a wave of bankruptcies among overleveraged crypto ventures, DeFi’s TVL has stabilized around $50 billion for the past two years. It was only after President Trump’s second term and the removal of the previously antagonistic SEC Chair Gary Gensler that DeFi began to recover, reaching approximately $168 billion TVL in early October.
Looking at this entire period from 2020 to now, several key conclusions emerge:
Without active institutional and legislative support, blockchain finance risks remaining confined to the enthusiast fringe. Like many cultural phenomena, mass adoption tends to be top-down driven, as exemplified by Elon Musk’s influence on Dogecoin’s surge.
One major hurdle to crypto’s wider adoption is the inflation of new tokens, which fuels recurring boom-and-bust cycles. This token oversupply undermines investor attention, market legitimacy, and overall capital efficiency.
The current ecosystem—where tokens are staked to earn more tokens in a closed-loop, casino-like economy—must give way to real utility derived from external value rather than internal dilution.
Moreover, Web3 crypto usage remains far from user-friendly and secure, with frequent incidents like bridge hacks and wallet incompatibility. According to Chainalysis, over $3.4 billion in crypto funds were stolen in 2025 alone. Ideally, blockchain finance should be so seamless that users are unaware they’re interacting with decentralized technology.
Notably, the market rally following the removal of SEC Chair Gary Gensler signals that blockchain’s underlying value hinges on how well it integrates with the broader, compliance-driven economy. As such, 2026 is shaping up to be a pivotal year for crypto’s maturity and mainstream acceptance.
Bitcoin and Stablecoin-Based Institutional Integration: The 2026 Catalyst
While DeFi protocols sought to establish dominance, new intermediaries such as foundations, early adopters, venture capitalists, and miners quickly asserted control. Despite the promise of decentralization, the ease of creating new tokens generated persistent dilution pressure across the crypto ecosystem.
Bitcoin, however, avoided this recursive dilution trap by imposing a physical energy barrier through its proof-of-work algorithm. This barrier limits token creation ex-nihilo, allowing Bitcoin’s network effect to remain robust. Following the October market crash, Bitcoin’s mining difficulty held steady, even increasing before stabilizing at pre-crash levels as the price hovered around $88,000 towards year-end.
Amid rising inflation fears, geopolitical tensions, and trade conflicts, gold and silver have regained their status as trusted hedges. Nevertheless, Bitcoin’s deterministic scarcity and digital-native nature position it uniquely for the modern economy, contrasting with gold’s pseudoscarcity.
Although many financial institutions underestimated Bitcoin’s 2025 price — with forecasts from Standard Chartered ($200k), VanEck ($180k), JPMorgan ($165k), Bernstein ($200k), and Fundstrat ($250k) — these projections may be delayed signals for 2026. As of early December, JPMorgan analysts suggested Bitcoin could reach $170k in 2026, assuming it begins to trade similarly to gold.
Moreover, recent research from K33 indicates that selling pressure from long-term holders (LTH) is nearing exhaustion. If this holds true, Bitcoin is poised to lead a renewed altcoin market rally in 2026, but with some notable distinctions:
The full implementation of the EU’s Markets in Crypto-Assets (MiCA) regulation will channel the majority of European crypto trading volume into regulated entities, while simultaneously triggering a flight of activity to less restrictive jurisdictions.
Meanwhile, tokenized stocks are poised for wider adoption as the US clears key regulatory hurdles. Notably, SEC Chair Paul Atkins issued a no-action letter to the Depository Trust Company (DTC) to facilitate the rollout of tokenized securities. However, offerings from platforms like Robinhood, Kraken, and Dinari remain heavily geo-restricted.
As the EU seeks to curb USD-based stablecoin flows—evidenced by Kraken’s fiat-only tokenized stock trading—the US stands to gain renewed competitive advantage.
Institutional oversight in the US is becoming increasingly crypto-friendly, likely aiming to solidify USD dominance via stablecoins. For example, the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision (BCBS) is revising its rules on banks’ exposure to cryptocurrencies. Together with more accommodating regulators such as the FDIC and OCC, it is now highly likely that US banks will hold cryptocurrencies in 2026.
Following the passage of the GENIUS Act, stablecoin flows are expected to significantly boost the broader crypto market. On one side, Circle’s upcoming Arc blockchain—backed by Blackrock, Visa, and Amazon—will support institutional stablecoin settlements. On the other, stablecoins are rapidly becoming the primary consumer-facing crypto product.
While MiCA’s vague definition of “decentralization on a spectrum” may hinder true DeFi innovation, it nonetheless accelerates capital formation around compliant crypto primitives.
The Bottom Line
Since 2020, the crypto ecosystem has created transformative wealth but also faced setbacks due to excessive experimentation. The strict regulatory stance under SEC Chair Gary Gensler cooled early enthusiasm, turning much of crypto activity into speculative trading rather than real financial innovation.
Following President Trump’s SEC repeal of SAB 121, crypto entered a new phase of integration under traditional finance (TradFi) rules. Despite macroeconomic and geopolitical headwinds, crypto moves into 2026 on its most stable footing yet.
Unlike prior cycles dominated by retail sentiment, institutional investors — pension funds, insurers, and endowments — are expected to reduce volatility through spot ETFs and altcoin trusts on high-performance chains like Solana and Sui.
The rise of Real World Assets (RWA) will foster a unified liquidity layer, linking tokenized stocks, RWAs, and TradFi blockchain networks with DeFi protocols. In this emerging hybrid finance, stablecoins will be the backbone, enabling DeFi’s transformation into a regulated, compliant capital market.
Bitcoin traded steadily on Tuesday, as a pickup in risk appetite lent support to the world’s largest cryptocurrency early in 2026, though renewed concerns surrounding treasury-focused firms limited further upside.
On Monday, Strategy Inc. (NASDAQ: MSTR), the largest corporate holder of Bitcoin, reported a significantly larger unrealized loss on its digital assets for the fourth quarter, reflecting the decline in the value of its holdings throughout 2025.
The broader crypto market also edged higher alongside Bitcoin, but gains generally lagged those seen in other risk-oriented sectors, particularly technology stocks.
Market sentiment improved as investors looked past the initial shock of a U.S. military action in Venezuela, which resulted in the capture of President Nicolás Maduro. Attention has now turned to Washington’s next steps for the region.
Bitcoin rose 1.3% to $93,576.7 at 00:59 ET (05:59 GMT), though it remained down more than 6% for 2025.
Saylor’s Strategy reports $17.44B unrealized loss in Q4
Michael Saylor’s Strategy announced on Monday night that it recorded a substantial $17.44 billion in unrealized losses for the fourth quarter of 2025, largely due to a decline in the value of Bitcoin, its largest asset.
A directly comparable figure for the fourth quarter of 2024 was unavailable, although the company had reported a net loss of $670.8 million in Q4 2024. Last year, Strategy adopted new accounting rules requiring it to mark its Bitcoin holdings to fair value in its earnings—a change that has led to significant swings in quarterly results.
The company’s shares, which function as a Bitcoin proxy, fell nearly 50% in 2025 as investors grew increasingly skeptical about the long-term viability of its crypto accumulation strategy. A prolonged downturn in Bitcoin prices, along with Strategy’s exclusion from a major U.S. stock index, further weighed on market sentiment.
The steep decline in Strategy’s share price has also raised concerns that the firm could be forced to liquidate part of its Bitcoin holdings to meet future debt and shareholder commitments—an outcome that could trigger substantial selling pressure on Bitcoin itself.
Altcoins climb as XRP leads gains
The broader crypto market traded mostly in positive territory in line with Bitcoin, with XRP outperforming the rest.
XRP jumped 12% amid stronger capital inflows into spot exchange-traded funds, while supplies of the token were also seen shrinking on major exchanges.
The world’s second-largest cryptocurrency, Ether, gained 2% to $3,220.24, while BNB advanced 0.6%.
Solana and Cardano rose by 2.5% and 5.5%, respectively.
In the memecoin space, Dogecoin added 0.4%, while $TRUMP climbed 2.6%.
THE ETERNAL SOVEREIGN 