THE ETERNAL SOVEREIGN

Tag: Oil

  • Bitcoin climbs back above $67,000 as traders respond to news of Khamenei’s death.

    Bitcoin (BitfinexUSD) is rebounding from its weekend slide, trading above the $67,000 mark as investors process a dramatic shift in Middle Eastern geopolitics.

    The bounce comes after intense volatility sparked by coordinated U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran. President Donald Trump stated that the operation led to the death of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Although Tehran initially rejected the reports, Iranian state media later confirmed his death, triggering sharp reactions across global financial markets.

    As highlighted in Saturday’s analysis, Bitcoin has a consistent pattern of sharply dropping on unexpected geopolitical shocks before stabilizing. That pattern appears to be unfolding again. After falling to nearly $63,000 yesterday, the cryptocurrency has gradually attracted renewed capital flows as the initial wave of panic selling eases.

    Ethereum and XRP are also participating in the broader recovery. ETH/USD has moved back toward the $2,000 level, while XRP is trading near $1.40, with investors anticipating a key March 1 deadline that could bring greater regulatory clarity in the United States.

    Regime change dynamics and shifting sentiment

    Khamenei’s death was a decisive and largely unforeseen development. The swift return of buyers into Bitcoin reflects a growing belief among traders that the most severe phase of military escalation may have already passed.

    At the same time, optimism is tempered by uncertainty surrounding the power vacuum in Tehran. As Iran’s highest authority for decades, Khamenei’s absence leaves open questions about the country’s leadership transition and broader regional stability.

    President Trump’s remarks encouraging Iranians to “reclaim their country” indicate that Washington may be aiming for structural regime change. For crypto investors, the coming days represent a critical period of observation. If Iran manages a controlled leadership transition without broadening the conflict, Bitcoin’s rebound could remain intact. However, a drawn-out internal or regional confrontation could quickly pressure the $67,000 support level once more.

    Escalation risks and Bitcoin’s “safe haven” debate

    Despite the recovery, the possibility of a wider regional conflict persists. Iran’s Revolutionary Guards have reportedly carried out strikes against neighboring states hosting U.S. forces, and casualties have been reported following retaliatory action involving Israel. This ongoing cycle of retaliation continues to unsettle institutional crypto participants.

    The central issue now is whether Bitcoin can genuinely function as a “digital gold” hedge during geopolitical crises — or whether it will keep behaving like a high-beta technology asset that reacts sharply to shifts in global risk sentiment.

    Sources: Simon Mugo

  • Missile strikes by Iran have brought the conflict to the edge of the Persian Gulf, reinforcing support for the joint campaign led by the United States and Israel.

    Thunderous explosions and massive fireballs from missiles launched by Iran across the Gulf underscored a long-feared reality for regional leaders: Tehran can carry the fight directly to their territory. The attacks are likely to solidify Arab governments’ backing for joint action by the United States and Israel.

    Even on the Palm Jumeirah — Dubai’s most exclusive enclave — blasts shook buildings and struck a luxury hotel, sending residents scrambling as missiles and interceptors streaked overhead. The scenes made clear that the conflict had spilled beyond Iran’s borders, just as Tehran had cautioned.

    “What has now been demonstrated is that we — not the United States — are directly exposed,” said Ebtesam Al-Ketbi of the Emirates Policy Center. “When Iran attacked, it hit the Gulf first, claiming it was targeting U.S. bases.”

    Analysts say Tehran’s strikes are designed to show that no American ally in the region is out of reach and to increase the price of supporting Washington’s campaign. But they warn that any error in judgment could turn calibrated signaling into full-scale war.

    Gulf officials argue that by hitting oil-producing neighbors, Iran is widening the battlefield and putting global energy supplies at risk, not merely regional stability. For rapidly expanding economies such as Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates — all reliant on open skies, safe sea lanes and steady trade — a broader confrontation would be severely destabilizing.

    By casting the confrontation as a campaign for regime change in Iran, President Donald Trump has raised the stakes, increasing the likelihood that Tehran could retaliate more aggressively, observers say.

    If Iran were to misjudge and directly attack Gulf Cooperation Council states, the nature of the conflict would shift dramatically. Regional governments would be under intense pressure to respond as lives and strategic assets come under threat.

    Some Gulf analysts contend that Iran is undermining its own strategic interests by striking neighboring states. While Tehran insists it is targeting U.S. military installations, Gulf capitals view the attacks as clear violations of sovereignty.

    In recent indirect talks with Washington aimed at defusing tensions, Iran signaled willingness to negotiate over its nuclear program but refused to discuss its ballistic missile arsenal or its backing of regional militias. Tehran has suggested that such issues be handled in a regional dialogue excluding the United States — a proposal Gulf states argue would weaken rather than strengthen the existing security framework, given their longstanding reliance on U.S. protection.

    From their perspective, Iran’s missile capabilities and network of proxies pose immediate threats. Without external security guarantors, they see little credibility in a regional-only arrangement.

    Meanwhile, Trump’s rhetoric has shifted notably. Whereas he previously described potential U.S. strikes as leverage to secure a nuclear agreement, he has more recently framed them in terms that imply regime change. Unlike the large-scale 2003 invasion of Iraq under George W. Bush, which involved a prolonged troop deployment and occupation, the current strategy appears focused on limited air operations designed to achieve swift, visible outcomes while minimizing American casualties and domestic political fallout.

    The bet is that a short, decisive campaign would yield political benefits, whereas a drawn-out war — especially one disrupting oil flows or the broader economy — could carry heavy costs.

    Should the conflict expand to include U.S. bases, diplomatic missions, energy infrastructure, or the crucial maritime corridor of the Strait of Hormuz, the economic and political repercussions for the United States, the Gulf, and global markets would escalate sharply.

    Sources: Reuters

  • Markets in focus: Nvidia, Salesforce results and U.S.–Iran nuclear negotiations

    Futures tied to the main U.S. stock benchmarks edged lower as investors focused on key earnings from the technology sector. Nvidia, a heavyweight in the U.S. equity market, delivered stronger-than-expected results, though investors are seeking clearer guidance on when its substantial cash flow will translate into greater shareholder returns. Salesforce shares declined after issuing a softer revenue outlook. Meanwhile, oil prices held steady ahead of crucial nuclear negotiations between U.S. and Iranian officials.

    Futures Edge Lower

    U.S. equity futures moved down Thursday as markets digested earnings from AI leader Nvidia.

    As of 03:05 ET (08:05 GMT), Dow futures were down 122 points, or 0.3%, S&P 500 futures slipped 0.1%, and Nasdaq 100 futures also fell 0.1%. This followed gains across all major Wall Street indices in the previous session, when investors positioned ahead of Nvidia’s earnings release.

    Sentiment had improved on renewed optimism surrounding artificial intelligence, marking another shift in what has been a volatile narrative around the emerging technology. The Nasdaq led prior gains as investors regained confidence that AI could eventually deliver broad economic benefits — contrasting with earlier concerns that new AI models might disrupt software firms and limit returns on heavy data center spending.

    Remarks from Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin also supported equities, as he noted uncertainty over whether automation would significantly raise unemployment and suggested AI could instead improve labor market efficiency.

    Nvidia Little Changed Despite Strong Results

    Nvidia reported better-than-expected earnings for the January quarter and issued revenue guidance above forecasts for the current period, yet its shares were mostly flat in after-hours trading.

    Some investors questioned whether the chipmaker is returning sufficient capital to shareholders. Yvette Schmitter, CEO of Fusion Collective, pointed out that while Nvidia generated $35 billion in cash during the fourth quarter, it returned just 12% to shareholders — sharply lower than 52% a year earlier.

    She also raised concerns about reduced buybacks despite record cash generation, especially as Nvidia highlights strong demand for its sold-out Ampere chips.

    These concerns echoed questions raised during the company’s earnings call, including from a UBS analyst who asked whether Nvidia plans to distribute more of the anticipated $100 billion in cash expected this year. CFO Colette Kress emphasized ongoing investment in the broader AI ecosystem, while CEO Jensen Huang underscored AI’s foundational role in the future of computing.

    Salesforce Drops on Soft Revenue Outlook

    Salesforce shares fell in extended trading after the company issued fiscal 2027 revenue guidance below Wall Street expectations, suggesting softer demand for enterprise software amid economic uncertainty and tighter corporate budgets.

    The company projected full-year revenue between $45.80 billion and $46.20 billion, slightly below consensus estimates at the midpoint.

    Salesforce continues to invest heavily in artificial intelligence to counter investor concerns that emerging AI models, such as those developed by startups like Anthropic, could erode demand. These pressures have contributed to stock volatility as the company works to defend its position within the software-as-a-service industry.

    However, Salesforce raised its fiscal 2030 revenue forecast to $63 billion from $60 billion, citing expected growth from agentic AI offerings. Analysts at Vital Knowledge described the report as not flawless but “good enough,” highlighting strong AI product momentum, stable core performance, and solid cash flow generation.

    Oil Steady Before U.S.- Iran Talks

    Oil prices were largely unchanged Thursday, remaining near seven-month highs as markets prepared for a third round of nuclear discussions between Washington and Tehran.

    Brent crude gained 0.2% to $70.84 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate rose 0.2% to $65.62 per barrel.

    U.S. representatives, including special envoy Steve Witkoff and adviser Jared Kushner, are scheduled to meet Iranian officials in Geneva as negotiations continue over Iran’s nuclear program. President Donald Trump has warned that failure to make meaningful progress could lead to serious consequences, raising concerns that prolonged tensions may disrupt supply from Iran, a key OPEC producer.

    Gold Edges Higher

    Gold prices ticked up as uncertainty surrounding U.S. trade tariffs bolstered safe-haven demand, with investors also monitoring developments in the U.S.-Iran nuclear talks.

    Spot gold rose 0.6% to $5,196.55 per ounce, while U.S. gold futures dipped 0.5% to $5,200.54 per ounce.

    Markets are also evaluating the implications of newly announced U.S. tariffs following a Supreme Court ruling that struck down President Trump’s sweeping reciprocal tariff measures. Attention now turns to upcoming U.S. economic data, including weekly jobless claims. So far this year, gold has remained supported by geopolitical tensions, central bank buying, and portfolio diversification trends.

    Sources: Scott Kano

  • Gold gains on tariff jitters; oil steadies near seven-month highs before United States–Iran talks.

    Gold price

    Gold edged higher in Asian trading on Wednesday, recovering slightly after the prior session’s pullback driven by profit-taking, as markets weighed the effects of newly enacted U.S. tariffs and looked ahead to upcoming U.S.–Iran negotiations later this week.

    Spot gold climbed 0.8% to $5,184.55 per ounce as of 21:08 ET (02:08 GMT), while U.S. gold futures advanced 0.5% to $5,203.10 an ounce. The metal had dropped 1.6% on Tuesday, ending a four-day winning streak.

    On Tuesday, the U.S. began enforcing a temporary 10% blanket import tariff, with the Trump administration aiming to raise it to 15%. The move has heightened concerns about global trade disruptions and inflationary pressures. This action came after a U.S. Supreme Court decision last week invalidated earlier broad tariffs introduced under emergency powers, prompting the government to reinstate duties using alternative legal grounds.

    Investors also monitored geopolitical developments, as Washington and Tehran are scheduled to hold a third round of nuclear discussions in Geneva on Thursday.

    Despite the rebound, gold’s upside remained limited amid expectations that U.S. interest rates will stay higher for longer. Two Federal Reserve officials indicated on Tuesday that there is little urgency to adjust monetary policy, reinforcing a rate outlook that tends to weigh on non-yielding assets like gold.

    Additional pressure came from a firmer U.S. dollar, which makes commodities priced in dollars more expensive for foreign buyers. The U.S. Dollar Index was broadly unchanged after rising 0.1% in the previous session.

    Among other precious metals, silver gained 1.6% to $88.59 per ounce, while platinum surged 2.3% to $2,224.60 an ounce.

    Oil price

    Oil prices stayed close to seven-month peaks on Wednesday, as fears of potential U.S.–Iran military confrontation that could disrupt crude supplies kept investors cautious ahead of fresh talks scheduled for Thursday.

    Brent crude rose 43 cents, or 0.6%, to $71.20 per barrel by 0400 GMT, while WTI gained 38 cents, or 0.6%, to $66.01. Brent touched its highest level since July 31 last week, and WTI reached its strongest point since August 4 earlier this week. Both benchmarks have remained elevated as Washington deployed additional military assets to the Middle East in an effort to pressure Tehran into negotiations over its nuclear and ballistic missile programs.

    A prolonged conflict could threaten exports from Iran—the third-largest producer within Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries—as well as other key producers in the region. Analysts at ING noted that persistent uncertainty is likely to keep a significant geopolitical risk premium embedded in prices, leaving markets highly responsive to new developments.

    U.S. representatives Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner are expected to meet Iranian officials in Geneva on Thursday for a third round of negotiations. Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi said a deal is achievable, provided diplomacy takes precedence. Meanwhile, Donald Trump has warned of “very bad consequences” if no agreement is reached, with uncertainty remaining over whether Iran’s potential concessions would satisfy Washington’s demand for zero uranium enrichment, according to IG analyst Tony Sycamore.

    Heightened tensions have also coincided with reports that Iran and China are advancing discussions over the purchase of Chinese anti-ship cruise missiles, which could pose a threat to U.S. naval forces stationed near Iran’s coastline. Experts say such weapons would significantly bolster Tehran’s strike capabilities.

    Trump is set to address Congress in his State of the Union speech on Tuesday evening, where he is expected to outline his Iran strategy, though specific details have not been disclosed.

    Beyond geopolitics, traders are monitoring supply-demand dynamics. The American Petroleum Institute reportedly showed a sharp 11.43-million-barrel increase in U.S. crude inventories for the week ended February 20, even as gasoline and distillate stocks declined. Official data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration is due later Wednesday.

  • Oil stays near seven-month highs ahead of U.S.–Iran talks, with tariff uncertainty clouding the outlook.

    • Oil prices edged higher during Asian trade on Tuesday, remaining just under the seven-month peaks reached in the prior session, as markets looked ahead to upcoming U.S.–Iran discussions later this week. Ongoing uncertainty surrounding trade tariffs continued to temper investor sentiment.
    • At 22:22 ET (03:22 GMT), Brent crude futures climbed 0.8% to $72.04 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures also advanced 0.8% to $66.81 per barrel.
    • Both benchmarks had approached seven-month highs in the previous session before ending slightly lower.

    Market participants are holding back ahead of US – Iran talks scheduled for later this week.

    Markets stayed tense ahead of a third round of nuclear talks between Washington and Tehran set for Thursday in Geneva. Strains have persisted since last week amid indications that the situation could escalate. The U.S. pulled some non-essential embassy staff from Beirut, underscoring concerns that diplomacy might collapse and spark conflict.

    President Donald Trump warned in a social media post on Monday that it would be a “very bad day” for Iran if no agreement is reached.

    “In the event of a deal, we would likely see a significant unwinding of the risk premium currently built into prices — though securing such an agreement is far from straightforward,” analysts at ING noted.

    A failure in negotiations could heighten worries about stricter sanctions enforcement or potential disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, a crucial corridor for global crude shipments. Fears of a possible military clash contributed to a 6% surge in oil prices last week.

    Tariff tensions under Donald Trump weigh on demand outlook

    Oil markets are also contending with wider macro uncertainty after the Supreme Court of the United States invalidated an earlier round of tariffs introduced under emergency powers.

    Donald Trump has since sought to reinstate duties of up to 15% using alternative legal provisions and cautioned that countries that “play games” in trade negotiations with the U.S. could be hit with steeper tariffs.

    The risk of renewed trade tensions has darkened the global growth and fuel demand outlook, limiting oil’s advance even as geopolitical concerns continue to lend support to prices.

    Sources: Ayushman Ojha

  • Oil declines amid US – Iran nuclear negotiations and uncertainty over Trump tariffs.

    Oil prices fell more than 1% in Asian trading on Monday, taking a breather after last week’s sharp rally, as investors assessed the likelihood of a third round of U.S.-Iran nuclear negotiations and renewed uncertainty around U.S. trade policy.

    By 20:50 ET (01:50 GMT), Brent crude for April delivery dropped 1% to $71.03 a barrel, while WTI crude declined 0.9% to $65.75 a barrel.

    Both benchmarks had climbed nearly 6% last week amid signs of a potential U.S.-Iran confrontation and an unexpected drawdown in U.S. crude inventories, which supported prices.

    Traders watch third round of U.S.- Iran nuclear talks

    Iran and the United States are expected to hold a third round of nuclear discussions on Thursday in Geneva, raising hopes that tensions may ease.

    Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi told CBS’s “Face the Nation” on Sunday that there is a strong possibility of reaching a diplomatic resolution, adding that an agreement is within reach. Markets viewed the remarks as a signal of potential compromise.

    Iran is a major producer within OPEC and possesses some of the largest proven oil reserves globally. The country also borders the Strait of Hormuz, a vital chokepoint that handles about one-fifth of the world’s seaborne oil. Any escalation involving Iran could disrupt shipments and drive up freight and insurance costs.

    Trump raises global tariffs to 15%

    Meanwhile, U.S. President Donald Trump unveiled new global tariffs, initially imposing a 10% duty on imports for 150 days after the U.S. Supreme Court invalidated his previous, broader tariff plan.

    The administration increased the rate to 15% on Saturday—the maximum permitted under the applicable law—adding fresh uncertainty to global trade and demand prospects.

    Higher tariffs can strain supply chains and prompt retaliatory actions from trade partners. Slower trade activity and weaker industrial production typically weigh on fuel consumption.

    Sources: Ayushman Ojha

  • Oil hovers near six-month peak on US-Iran tensions, poised for strong weekly gains.

    Oil prices moved modestly higher in Asian trading on Friday, building on strong gains from the prior two sessions and putting major benchmarks on course for roughly a 6% weekly advance, as rising tensions between the U.S. and Iran heightened concerns about potential supply disruptions in the Middle East.

    By 22:41 ET (03:41 GMT), Brent for April delivery climbed 0.2% to $71.81 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude rose 0.5% to $66.78 a barrel.

    Both contracts were hovering near their highest levels since early August and were set to record weekly gains of more than 6%.

    Oil near six-month high on US-Iran tensions

    Investor anxiety has intensified after U.S. President Donald Trump warned Tehran that “bad things” could follow if a nuclear agreement is not reached within roughly 10–15 days, raising the possibility of military action.

    According to a Wall Street Journal report, Trump is considering a limited strike on Iranian targets to pressure Tehran into accepting a nuclear deal.

    Any escalation involving Iran — a key OPEC producer — could jeopardize shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, a vital passageway that handles about one-fifth of global oil trade, thereby increasing the market’s sensitivity to geopolitical risk.

    This week’s rally also marked a rebound from earlier losses, when prices slipped at the start of the week on hopes that U.S.-Iran negotiations were making progress. The renewed tough rhetoric has since restored a geopolitical risk premium, pushing crude back toward multi-week highs.

    US crude inventories drop sharply – EIA

    Data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration on Thursday showed crude stockpiles fell by around 9 million barrels last week, defying expectations for a 1.7 million-barrel increase.

    The report also indicated declines in gasoline and distillate inventories, both coming in below forecasts, suggesting solid demand from refiners and consumers.

    Markets are now awaiting the release of the U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index later on Friday — the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation.

    Following recent hawkish Fed minutes that signaled policymakers are in no rush to cut interest rates, the PCE data could offer additional insight into the central bank’s policy trajectory.

    Sources: Ayushman Ojha

  • WTI holds above $65.00 amid persistent geopolitical tensions.

    • WTI prices could stage a rebound as supply concerns intensify amid escalating US-Iran tensions and stalled Ukraine-Russia negotiations.
    • Talks between Washington and Tehran have yielded little concrete progress, with Iranian officials only اشاره to a broad framework for a potential nuclear agreement, leaving uncertainty over future crude exports.
    • Meanwhile, peace discussions between Ukraine and Russia held in Geneva concluded without a breakthrough, sustaining geopolitical risks that may continue to underpin oil prices.

    West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude slips slightly on Thursday after plunging 4.9% in the previous session, hovering around $65.00 per barrel during Asian trading. Despite the recent drop, oil prices may find support from potential supply disruptions linked to rising US-Iran tensions and stalled Ukraine-Russia peace efforts.

    Negotiations between Washington and Tehran remain unresolved. Iranian officials have pointed to a “general agreement” on the framework of a possible nuclear deal, but key differences persist. US Vice President JD Vance stated that Iran failed to meet Washington’s red lines, while US President Donald Trump reiterated that military action remains an option. Reports suggest that any potential US strike could develop into a prolonged campaign, with Israel advocating for an outcome aimed at regime change in Iran.

    Meanwhile, peace talks in Geneva between Ukraine and Russia concluded without tangible progress, according to Reuters. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy accused Moscow of stalling US-backed diplomatic efforts to end the four-year conflict. Trump has urged Kyiv to consider a deal that could involve significant concessions, even as Russian forces continue attacking energy infrastructure and making battlefield advances.

    On the trade front, India’s state-run Bharat Petroleum Corporation Limited (BPCL) reportedly made its first-ever purchase of Venezuelan crude, while HPCL Mittal Energy Limited resumed buying cargoes from Venezuela for the first time in two years.

    In US inventory data, the American Petroleum Institute (API) reported a 0.609 million-barrel decline in weekly crude stocks, partially offsetting the previous week’s massive 13.4 million-barrel build — the largest increase since January 2023.

    Sources: Akhtar Faruqui

  • Oil prices remain stable while attention centers on US-Iran geopolitical risks.

    Oil prices moved sideways in Asian trading on Monday, as attention centered on renewed diplomatic engagement between the U.S. and Iran, with investors wary of possible supply disruptions in the Middle East.

    Trading activity remained subdued due to public holidays in China and the U.S., while weak Japanese growth figures added to worries about slowing demand. Brent crude for April delivery slipped 0.2% to $67.65 per barrel by 21:15 ET (02:15 GMT).

    U.S.– Iran nuclear talks to resume

    The U.S. and Iran are set to hold a second round of discussions in Switzerland this week regarding Tehran’s nuclear program, following the restart of negotiations earlier in February. However, diplomatic efforts coincided with Washington deploying a second aircraft carrier to the Middle East and signaling readiness for extended military action should talks collapse.

    President Donald Trump reiterated warnings that Iran must agree to a deal or risk further military measures. Over the weekend, Iranian officials indicated a willingness to make concessions on their nuclear activities in exchange for relief from tough U.S. sanctions, adding that the next move rests with Washington.

    Tensions between the two countries have recently supported oil prices, as traders factored in a higher geopolitical risk premium amid fears of renewed conflict that could disrupt Iranian oil output.

    OPEC+ considering renewed output increases

    At the same time, some of oil’s geopolitical premium was tempered by a Reuters report suggesting that OPEC+ intends to restart production hikes from April. Higher output would enable member countries to capitalize on recent price gains, though increased supply could weigh on prices over the longer term.

    The group is scheduled to meet on March 1.

    Oil markets were pressured throughout 2025 by concerns of excess supply in 2026. Although OPEC+ gradually raised production last year, it paused further increases in December due to persistent oversupply worries.

    Nonetheless, crude prices climbed to a six-month high in early 2026 amid escalating Middle East tensions, while signs of global economic resilience fueled expectations that demand would stay firm.

    Sources: Ambar Warrick

  • Oil prices remain under pressure amid supply glut outlook; U.S. CPI data in focus.

    Oil prices were mostly stable in Asian trading on Friday but remained on course for a weekly loss after plunging nearly 3% in the prior session, as expectations of a substantial supply surplus and rising inventories pressured sentiment. By 21:07 ET (02:07 GMT), Brent crude for April delivery was up 0.1% at $67.56 a barrel, while WTI crude also edged 0.1% higher to $62.87. Both benchmarks had dropped close to 3% previously, leaving them down about 1% for the week.

    IEA projects oil supply surplus and weaker demand growth outlook.

    The International Energy Agency, in its latest monthly report, projected that the global oil market could see a surplus exceeding 3.7 million barrels per day in 2026, pointing to a pronounced supply overhang.

    It also noted that global stockpiles grew last year at one of the fastest paces since the pandemic, reflecting comfortable supply levels. The agency lowered its forecast for global demand growth, citing a softer economic outlook and moderating consumption, even as non-OPEC production stays strong. This combination of weaker demand and resilient output has intensified concerns about prolonged oversupply.

    In the U.S., the Energy Information Administration reported an 8.53 million-barrel increase in crude inventories this week—well above expectations and the largest build since January 2025—indicating sluggish refinery demand and abundant supply.

    U.S.- Iran nuclear talks under scrutiny; U.S. CPI data awaited.

    Meanwhile, investors monitored geopolitical developments after Donald Trump said negotiations over a potential U.S.-Iran nuclear deal could last up to a month.

    The possibility of extended talks eased immediate fears of supply disruptions in the Middle East, reducing the geopolitical premium that had previously supported prices. Attention is also turning to U.S. CPI data due later Friday, which may provide further insight into the Federal Reserve’s rate outlook after strong January employment figures dampened hopes for near-term rate cuts.

    Sources:

  • Oil rises on U.S.-Iran tensions, China demand eyed.

    Oil prices advanced in Asian trading on Wednesday as investors monitored developments in U.S.-Iran relations and looked ahead to travel demand during an upcoming major holiday in China.

    Crude rebounded from part of the previous session’s losses, supported by a softer U.S. dollar ahead of key economic data releases.

    By 21:04 ET (02:04 GMT), April Brent futures climbed 0.6% to $69.18 a barrel, while WTI crude futures also gained 0.6% to $64.19 a barrel.

    Oil prices rise amid US-Iran tensions over potential supply disruptions.

    On Tuesday, Iranian officials stated that recent nuclear discussions with the United States helped Tehran assess Washington’s intentions, adding that diplomatic engagement between the two nations would continue.

    The remarks followed talks held last week regarding Iran’s nuclear program, which came after U.S. President Donald Trump sent several warships to the Middle East.

    Although both sides indicated some progress from their weekend negotiations, attention shifted after the U.S. issued a maritime warning for vessels passing through the Strait of Hormuz.

    Media reports also suggested that Trump was weighing the deployment of a second aircraft carrier near Iran—a step that could significantly heighten regional tensions.

    Amid the uncertainty, oil markets incorporated a risk premium, as traders grew concerned that potential military action might disrupt Iranian oil supplies.

    China’s Lunar New Year travel surge draws attention as CPI data falls short of expectations.

    Oil prices found some support on expectations of stronger Chinese fuel consumption during the upcoming Lunar New Year holiday.

    This year’s Lunar New Year, marking the Year of the Horse in the Chinese zodiac, falls on February 17 and will be observed with an extended nine-day public holiday from February 15 to 23.

    The festive period typically drives higher consumer spending in China, particularly in travel. Authorities project a record 9.5 billion passenger journeys during the spring holiday travel rush.

    International travel is set to include several favored destinations across Southeast Asia, though flights to Japan have reportedly declined sharply amid escalating diplomatic tensions between Beijing and Tokyo.

    Meanwhile, recent economic data signaled that deflationary pressures persist in China, as consumer price index figures came in below expectations and producer prices continued to contract.

    Sources: Ambar Warrick

  • Oil prices tick lower as markets watch U.S.–Iran tensions.

    Oil prices edged lower in Asian trade on Tuesday, giving back some of the previous session’s gains as markets focused on U.S.–Iran tensions and awaited key economic data. Crude had jumped more than 1% earlier after reports suggested Washington was taking a more cautious stance toward Iran, offsetting optimism from weekend talks.

    A weaker dollar had supported prices, though the greenback stabilized on Tuesday. Brent futures slipped 0.1% to $68.99 a barrel, while WTI fell 0.2% to $64.06.

    The United States has released a maritime advisory concerning Iran.

    On Monday, the U.S. Maritime Administration warned U.S.-flagged ships to keep as much distance as possible from Iranian waters while transiting the Strait of Hormuz and the Gulf of Oman, advising vessels to remain closer to Oman due to the risk of boarding by Iranian forces.

    The advisory underscored ongoing tensions between Washington and Tehran, despite recent diplomatic talks showing some progress and commitments to further negotiations on Iran’s nuclear program, which remain strained as Iran has largely dismissed calls to halt nuclear enrichment.

    Markets are awaiting upcoming economic data releases from the United States and China.

    This week’s focus is on economic data from the world’s largest oil consumers, which is expected to shape demand expectations. In the U.S., January nonfarm payrolls are due on Wednesday, followed by consumer price index inflation data on Friday, with both releases likely to influence interest-rate outlooks amid an upcoming leadership transition at the Federal Reserve. In China, CPI data is also scheduled for Friday, just ahead of the week-long Lunar New Year holiday, when travel activity and fuel demand are expected to increase.

    Sources: Ambar Warrick

  • Oil prices slip after the U.S. and Iran signal progress in negotiations

    Oil prices slipped in Asian trading on Monday as the United States and Iran indicated they would continue negotiations over Tehran’s nuclear program, easing concerns about heightened tensions in the Middle East.

    Crude prices were also weighed down by a firmer U.S. dollar ahead of a busy week of key U.S. economic data, extending losses after a roughly 2% decline last week. Investors are additionally awaiting major economic releases from China, the world’s largest oil importer.

    Brent crude futures for April dropped 0.7% to $67.57 a barrel by 21:17 ET (02:17 GMT), while West Texas Intermediate futures also fell 0.7% to $63.12 a barrel.

    U.S. and Iran agree to press ahead with nuclear negotiations

    Washington and Tehran said over the weekend that indirect nuclear negotiations will continue following what both sides described as constructive talks in Oman on Friday.

    The statements helped ease fears of an imminent military confrontation in the Middle East, particularly after the United States had earlier deployed several warships to the region.

    Concerns over a potential conflict had previously pushed traders to build a higher risk premium into oil prices, with former President Donald Trump also issuing threats of military action against Iran.

    However, the likelihood of a full-scale war in the region now appears reduced, even as Tehran indicated it will continue advancing its nuclear enrichment activities.

    Markets await key U.S. and China economic data

    Attention this week is also on a slate of major economic data from the world’s largest oil-consuming economies.

    In the United States, January nonfarm payrolls figures are due on Wednesday, followed by CPI inflation data on Friday. These releases will be closely scrutinized for further signals on the interest-rate outlook, as markets continue to assess the direction of monetary policy under Warsh.

    In China, January CPI data is also scheduled for release on Friday, providing fresh insight into conditions in the world’s biggest oil importer.

    The data arrives just ahead of China’s week-long Lunar New Year holiday, which is expected to boost fuel demand across the country.

    Sources: Ambar Warrick

  • WTI Crude Oil Weekly Outlook: Established Range Reasserts Its Pull

    After closing the prior week comfortably above the 65.000 level, WTI Crude Oil began this past Monday with a sharp selloff, dropping to nearly 63.300. From there, price action largely revolved around that area throughout the week, with technical levels guiding the back-and-forth movement.

    Heading into the weekend, WTI is trading near 63.490 and is likely to open with early momentum when markets reopen on Monday. Overall, crude appears to have formed a central pricing zone, reflecting a higher equilibrium that remains reluctant to drift too far from lower levels. Resistance seems to be forming near 65.500, while the 61.000 area is acting as a key support floor—though, of course, there is no guarantee prices will remain confined within this range.

    Short-Term Outlook and Retrospective Analysis

    While some market participants attribute higher WTI crude prices to geopolitical concerns in the Middle East—particularly surrounding Iran and the buildup of U.S. military forces in the region—another factor may be the recent stretch of record cold temperatures across the United States. Notably, WTI crude had been trading with support near the 59.000 level up until January 22.

    The challenge with any of these explanations is the possibility that WTI crude is simply trading higher due to speculative forces, even though broader factors are clearly influencing market sentiment. The combined impact of geopolitical tensions involving Iran and unusually cold weather in the U.S. may be shaping positioning decisions among large market participants. At the same time, WTI has returned to a price range that was already tested back in August 2025, underscoring that this valuation zone is not unfamiliar territory for the commodity.

    Support and Resistance Levels in Focus This Week

    Broader financial markets continue to display signs of unease, with many large traders and institutions positioning defensively and expressing limited confidence in signals coming from other asset classes.

    By contrast, WTI crude oil has continued to grind along within a familiar and well-defined range, potentially creating opportunities for speculative positioning. The opening price action on Monday will be worth watching, especially given that the prior week began with a sharp selloff at the open. A repeat of that move appears less likely this time, as market anxiety seems to have eased somewhat compared with last week. If WTI opens in a more orderly fashion, it could present attractive opportunities to engage around key technical levels.

    WTI Crude Oil Weekly Market Outlook

    If WTI crude oil moves higher at the start of Monday’s session and approaches the 64.000 level, traders may look to target slightly higher price zones. That said, day traders should avoid becoming overly aggressive, as the 64.500 area could present stiff resistance unless upside momentum is firmly maintained. For now, a sharp acceleration to higher levels appears unlikely, with a decisive breakout probably requiring fresh catalysts—such as escalating developments involving Iran—to overcome established resistance.

    Conversely, if WTI opens lower on Monday, the early reaction around the 63.000 support level will be key. A successful hold there would suggest larger participants are comfortable maintaining the current price equilibrium. However, a sustained break below 63.000 lasting several hours could indicate reduced concern among major oil players, potentially opening the door to further downside movement.

    Sources: Robert Petrucci

  • Oil prices were steady, heading for a weekly decline as US-Iran talks remained in focus.

    Oil prices slipped in Asian trading on Friday and were on track for a weekly loss, as markets focused on whether upcoming U.S.–Iran talks could ease Middle East tensions. Investors also priced in a lower risk premium and took profits after last week’s strong gains. Brent futures for April held at $67.58 a barrel, while WTI futures edged up 0.1% to $63.09 by 21:13 ET (02:13 GMT).

    U.S.–Iran negotiations are scheduled to be held in Oman.

    U.S. and Iranian officials are scheduled to hold talks in Oman later on Friday, as military tensions in the Middle East intensify following Washington’s deployment of at least two naval fleets to the region. Investors are optimistic that dialogue between Tehran and Washington could ease tensions and reduce the risk of a wider conflict, prompting traders to strip some geopolitical risk premium from oil prices this week.

    However, differences have emerged over the scope of the discussions, with Iran rejecting U.S. demands to address its missile program and insisting that talks will focus solely on its nuclear ambitions. Iran is a key global oil producer and sits alongside the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for global crude shipments.

    Oil set for weekly decline as profit-taking and a stronger dollar weigh

    Brent and WTI futures were down between 2.5% and 4% for the week, as prices came under pressure from profit-taking after six straight weeks of gains. Crude had earlier been supported by expectations of tighter supply, particularly after extreme weather in the U.S. disrupted output nationwide.

    Supply disruptions in Kazakhstan and concerns over an escalation of conflict in the Middle East also lent support to prices. However, sentiment shifted this week as traders locked in profits, while a broader selloff across commodities—driven by a strengthening U.S. dollar—further weighed on oil markets. The dollar was on track for its strongest weekly performance since October, as investors viewed Kevin Warsh, U.S. President Donald Trump’s nominee for the next Federal Reserve chair, as a less dovish choice.

    Sources: Ambar Warrick

  • Oil prices fell more than 1% as markets focused on ongoing U.S.– Iran talks.

    Oil prices fell in Asian trading on Thursday as traders pared back risk premiums after the U.S. and Iran confirmed talks would take place on Friday.

    Crude was also weighed down by a stronger U.S. dollar, which firmed ahead of key January nonfarm payrolls data due on Friday. Attention was additionally focused on major central bank meetings in Europe and the UK later on Thursday.

    Prices reversed some of Wednesday’s strong gains as investors locked in profits, though oil remained on track for a weekly decline after earlier losses driven by a broader selloff in commodity markets.

    Brent crude futures for April slipped 1.4% to $68.50 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate futures fell 1.3% to $63.80 a barrel by 20:42 ET (01:42 GMT).

    Earlier, oil had found support from data showing U.S. inventories declined more than expected last week, as extreme cold weather disrupted production across the country.

    U.S.– Iran talks are set to be held in Oman on Friday.

    U.S. and Iranian officials are due to meet in Oman on Friday, as confirmed by both sides this week, though disagreements persist over the scope of the talks.

    Washington has repeatedly pushed for the discussions to include Iran’s missile program, while Tehran has said it is only willing to negotiate on its nuclear activities. These differences had earlier raised doubts about whether the meeting would go ahead, a factor that helped lift oil prices earlier in the week.

    Markets have also priced in a higher risk premium for crude amid concerns that U.S. President Donald Trump could follow through on threats to launch new strikes against Iran.

    A stronger dollar weighs on markets as investors await central bank meetings and upcoming payrolls data.

    A firmer dollar added pressure to oil prices, as the greenback attracted strong demand this week.

    Expectations around interest rate decisions from the Bank of England and the European Central Bank on Thursday prompted traders to move into the dollar, while attention also remained on upcoming U.S. nonfarm payrolls data.

    The dollar rebounded sharply from near four-year lows after President Donald Trump nominated Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve chair, a choice seen as less dovish by markets.

    Investors are now focused on January nonfarm payrolls data due on Friday, which is expected to provide clearer signals on the future path of U.S. interest rates.

    Sources: Ambar Warrick

  • WTI edges higher above $63.50 after U.S. downs Iranian drone

    • WTI crude prices edged higher to around $63.75 during Wednesday’s Asian trading session.
    • The move came after the U.S. military said it shot down an Iranian drone that “aggressively approached” a U.S. aircraft carrier, heightening geopolitical tensions.
    • Oil prices were also supported by data showing U.S. crude inventories recorded their largest decline since August 2023.

    West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the U.S. crude oil benchmark, was trading near $63.75 during Asian hours on Wednesday, edging higher amid rising concerns over escalating tensions between the United States and Iran. Market participants are also positioning ahead of the release of the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) crude oil inventory report later in the day.

    According to CNBC, the U.S. military shot down an Iranian drone on Tuesday that had “aggressively” approached the USS Abraham Lincoln aircraft carrier in the Arabian Sea. The incident comes at a time of heightened Middle East tensions, as U.S. President Donald Trump weighs potential military action against Iran.

    Iran has also insisted that talks with the United States this week be held in Oman rather than Turkey, and that negotiations be limited to bilateral discussions focused solely on nuclear issues, further complicating an already fragile diplomatic process. Any escalation in tensions between Washington and Tehran—OPEC’s fourth-largest crude producer—could provide near-term support to WTI prices.

    Meanwhile, the American Petroleum Institute’s (API) weekly report showed that U.S. crude inventories fell by 11.1 million barrels in the week ended January 30, sharply deeper than the 250,000-barrel decline seen the previous week and well below market expectations for a 700,000-barrel build. The sizeable drawdown in stockpiles could lend additional support to oil prices.

    On the downside, renewed demand for the U.S. dollar may cap gains in dollar-denominated commodities. U.S. President Donald Trump’s nomination of Governor Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve chair has led traders to expect a slower pace of interest rate cuts and a greater emphasis on reducing the Fed’s balance sheet under his leadership.

    Sources: Lallalit Srijandorn

  • Oil prices rise more than 1% amid escalating Iran tensions and expectations of a sharp drop in U.S. inventories.

    Oil prices climbed sharply during Asian trading on Wednesday, driven by reports of escalating tensions between the United States and Iran, which heightened fears of possible supply disruptions in the Middle East.

    Crude prices also found support from industry figures showing an unexpected and substantial drawdown in U.S. oil inventories last week, as severe cold weather across the country curtailed production.

    April Brent futures advanced 1.2% to $68.15 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude rose 1.4% to $63.69 per barrel as of 21:01 ET (02:01 GMT).

    Oil prices climb amid escalating U.S.-Iran tensions ahead of nuclear negotiations

    Overnight reports indicated that U.S. forces shot down an Iranian drone that was approaching a U.S. aircraft carrier in the Arabian Sea.

    In a separate incident, several Iranian gunboats were observed nearing a U.S.-flagged oil tanker in the Strait of Hormuz.

    These developments came just ahead of planned talks between Washington and Tehran later this week. However, Iranian officials have reportedly insisted that the negotiations—scheduled for Friday—be limited to bilateral discussions focused solely on nuclear issues, raising uncertainty over whether the talks will proceed at all.

    U.S. President Donald Trump has warned of further military action if Iran fails to comply with U.S. demands to rein in its nuclear program, while Tehran has vowed strong retaliation against any U.S. aggression.

    Any escalation of military activity in the Middle East could potentially disrupt regional oil supplies, a risk that has helped support crude prices in recent trading sessions.

    U.S. oil inventories fall sharply amid production disruptions, API data shows

    Oil prices also found support from industry figures showing a large and unexpected drawdown in U.S. crude inventories.

    Data from the American Petroleum Institute indicated that U.S. stockpiles fell by 11.1 million barrels in the week ended January 30, sharply contrasting with expectations for a 0.7 million-barrel build.

    API figures often signal a similar outcome in the official inventory report due later in the day.

    The sizeable drawdown was driven by severe cold weather across the United States, which disrupted oil production nationwide and hampered exports from the Gulf Coast.

    Supply disruptions in the U.S. have also contributed to stronger oil prices in recent weeks.

    Sources: Ambar Warrick

  • European stocks pull back as busy week begins; precious metals keep sliding

    European stocks moved lower on Monday as a selloff in precious metals rattled investor sentiment at the start of a week packed with corporate earnings, central bank meetings, and key economic data.

    By 03:05 ET (08:05 GMT), Germany’s DAX was down 0.4%, France’s CAC 40 slipped 0.5%, and the U.K.’s FTSE 100 fell 0.6%.

    Investor sentiment pressured by further declines in precious metals

    Market sentiment was sharply dented on Monday as gold and silver extended their selloff, deepening losses from Friday’s rout. The nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve chair sparked a strong rebound in the U.S. dollar, triggering widespread profit-taking and bringing an end to a rally that had pushed precious metals to record highs only days earlier.

    Spot gold slid just under 6% to $4,597 per ounce on Monday, after plunging nearly 10% on Friday—its steepest single-day decline since 1983.

    Silver, which had surged alongside gold on safe-haven demand and speculative inflows, also remained under heavy pressure following last Friday’s 30% collapse, marking its worst session since March 1980.

    Adding to investor unease, CME announced increases to margin requirements on several metals contracts effective from Monday’s market close, suggesting some traders may be struggling to meet margin calls and could be forced to sell liquid assets.

    Intesa Sanpaolo posts strong 2025 profit

    Shifting back to the corporate sector, another heavy week of quarterly earnings is ahead, with roughly 30% of the EuroSTOXX index’s market capitalization due to report results.

    Earlier on Monday, Intesa Sanpaolo (BIT: ISP) posted a 7.6% increase in 2025 net profit to €9.3 billion and unveiled plans to return €8.8 billion to shareholders through dividends and share buybacks, reinforcing its status as one of Europe’s most profitable banks.

    Meanwhile, Swiss lender Julius Baer (SIX: BAER) reported 2025 net profit of CHF 764 million, down 25% from the previous year but slightly above market expectations of CHF 679 million.

    In the U.S., attention this week will focus on technology heavyweights Alphabet (NASDAQ: GOOGL) and Amazon (NASDAQ: AMZN), especially as sentiment toward AI-related stocks has weakened after Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT) flagged rising costs from heavy AI investment, raising doubts over near-term returns.

    German retail sales edge up

    Data released earlier in the session showed that German retail sales increased by 0.1% in December from the previous month, improving from a 0.5% decline in November.

    Manufacturing activity figures for January are due later in the session for the eurozone and are expected to show a modest improvement, although remaining in contraction territory.

    Meanwhile, data released on Saturday indicated that China’s official manufacturing PMI fell further below the 50 threshold in January, signaling continued contraction in factory activity and underscoring ongoing weakness in domestic demand.

    Both the European Central Bank and the Bank of England are set to hold policy meetings this week, with each widely expected to leave interest rates unchanged.

    Oil falls as geopolitical risk premium fades

    Oil prices dropped sharply on Monday as fears of a potential U.S. strike on Iran eased after President Donald Trump said the Middle Eastern oil producer was “seriously talking” with Washington.

    Brent crude futures fell 4.8% to $65.97 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude slid 5% to $61.91 a barrel.

    Oil prices had surged last week as markets priced in a higher risk of supply disruptions from the region, following repeated threats by Trump toward Iran over its nuclear program and ongoing domestic unrest.

    Those geopolitical risks appeared to recede after Trump’s comments over the weekend.

    Meanwhile, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, known collectively as OPEC+, left output levels unchanged at their weekend meeting, in line with expectations.

    Sources: Peter Nurse

  • Oil prices tumble more than 3% on U.S.-Iran talks as OPEC+ keeps output steady.

    Oil prices slid sharply in Asian trading on Monday after reports of talks between the U.S. and Iran reduced some of the geopolitical risk premium in crude, while traders also took profits following recent gains.

    The decline came after the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+) kept output levels unchanged at a weekend meeting, in line with expectations.

    Brent crude futures for April delivery plunged 3.3% to $67.07 a barrel by 20:31 ET (01:31 GMT).

    Oil had climbed to near six-month highs last week amid fears of increased U.S. military action against Iran, while severe cold weather in North America was also seen as a threat to supply. However, prices came under pressure on Monday as traders moved to lock in profits.

    Crude was further weighed down by a rebound in the U.S. dollar from recent four-year lows, after the greenback strengthened following President Donald Trump’s nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve chair.

    Trump says Iran is in “serious talks” with the U.S.

    U.S. President Donald Trump said over the weekend that Iran was engaged in “serious talks” with his administration, raising the prospect of a possible easing of tensions between the two countries.

    His remarks followed statements from Iranian officials indicating that preparations were underway for negotiations with Washington.

    Trump has repeatedly warned of potential military action against Iran amid disputes over its nuclear program and domestic unrest, and has ordered the deployment of U.S. naval forces to the Middle East.

    The move heightened fears of renewed U.S. strikes on Iran, raising the risk of further geopolitical instability in the Middle East and potential disruptions to regional oil supply. Crude prices surged as markets factored in a higher geopolitical risk premium.

    Escalating tensions, alongside recent weather-related disruptions in the United States, helped lift oil prices despite lingering concerns over weak global demand and the possibility of an oversupplied market in 2026.

    More recently, a significant production outage in Kazakhstan has also provided support to oil prices.

    OPEC+ keeps output levels unchanged

    OPEC+ on Sunday kept its oil output for March unchanged, reinforcing its decision to pause further production increases despite a recent rise in crude prices.

    The group has raised output by roughly 2.9 million barrels per day through 2025, but announced an open-ended halt to additional hikes in November, after oil prices fell by around 20% over the past year.

    OPEC+ also offered no forward guidance on production, likely reflecting elevated uncertainty surrounding the global economic outlook and ongoing geopolitical risks.

    Sources: Investing

  • WTI Crude Weekly Outlook: Gradual Gains as Speculative Buying Emerges

    WTI crude oil has delivered two consecutive weeks of gains, giving day traders a favorable backdrop, and closed the weekend trading near $65.73. Prices at this level were last seen in the final week of September.

    The previous period when WTI consistently held at similar elevated levels was from mid-June through the end of July 2025. While crude has traded higher at times since then, the notable development for technical traders is the growing durability of the current upward momentum.

    From a chart perspective, support around $60.00 per barrel remained intact throughout the past week and began to demonstrate strength as early as Friday, January 23. As the new trading week gets underway, this technical stability may encourage renewed speculative buying, with some traders positioning for further upside in WTI prices.

    Volatility and Turmoil Mark Commodity Markets Over the Past Week

    In reality, WTI crude oil has remained relatively orderly, particularly given the absence of any extreme or destabilizing price swings. While the commodity did move higher, the advance was measured rather than explosive.

    On Tuesday, WTI rose from the mid-$60 range to around the mid-$62 level, showing early signs of upward pressure. By Wednesday, prices continued to firm, reaching the mid-$63 area. Momentum strengthened further into Thursday and Friday, when price action clearly accelerated to the upside, reinforcing the constructive tone in crude oil trading.

    By comparison with the turmoil seen in metals markets—and even in soft commodities such as cocoa and coffee—WTI crude oil has remained relatively restrained. Whether that composure will persist is an open question.

    Commodity markets often experience bursts of speculative intensity in cycles, yet WTI has been notably subdued over the past several months. That said, the prolonged bearish trend, marked by steadily declining prices, appears to have paused and reversed, with crude moving higher over the last two weeks.

    While geopolitical risks tied to Iran remain in the background, they are unlikely to be the primary driver behind the recent upside move in WTI prices.

    Iran, Venezuela, and Shifting Dynamics in the Global Energy Market

    Few things dominate markets like noise, with well-intentioned commentary offering countless explanations for sudden price moves in commodities. Weather events, wars, politics, trade agreements—even trivial anecdotes—are all quickly cited as causes. But the question remains: how many of these explanations actually reflect the true drivers behind price changes?

    • Commodity traders are highly seasoned, and major market participants operate with extensive intelligence gathered over months and even years. They work within long-term outlooks, but there is also one unavoidable factor: speculation.
    • At times, commodities move quickly simply because large orders enter the market and collective sentiment shifts. WTI crude oil is no exception to these forces. Over the past two weeks, buying interest in the energy sector has clearly increased.
    • Is this driven by speculative positioning, concerns about potential instability in the Middle East, or a blend of both? Beyond those considerations, fundamentals such as supply and demand also play a role—and by most measures, they remain relatively strong.

    WTI Crude Oil Weekly Outlook: Market Poised After Recent Stabilization

    The speculative trading range for WTI crude oil is seen between $59.20 and $70.10.

    WTI has clearly pushed higher, with the $60.00 level and the mid-$60s now appearing to act as near-term support. As the new week begins, the key question is whether the $65.00 area can hold and establish itself as a more durable floor. Broader commodity markets have displayed renewed strength across several sectors in recent weeks.

    The sharp advance in WTI may seem sudden, but it reflects a noticeable return of buying interest. Seasoned traders know crude oil has sustained higher price levels in the past, and its ability to post and maintain incremental gains has been evident over the last two weeks.

    That said, risk management remains critical when trading WTI. Price reversals can occur quickly, and without disciplined controls, such moves can result in significant losses for speculative traders.

    Sources: Robert Petrucci

  • WTI slips toward $64.00 despite heightened geopolitical tensions

    • WTI prices slipped but were still on course for roughly 12% monthly gains, underpinned by elevated geopolitical risk premiums.
    • Iran warned of an unprecedented response following renewed threats from President Trump over nuclear negotiations.
    • Meanwhile, the Trump administration loosened some sanctions on Venezuela’s oil sector on Thursday to attract U.S. investment.

    West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude edged lower after three consecutive sessions of gains, trading near $64.00 a barrel during Asian hours on Friday. Still, the benchmark remained on track for about a 12% monthly increase, supported by a strengthening geopolitical risk premium.

    Geopolitical tensions stayed elevated after Iran warned it would “defend itself and respond like never before” following renewed threats from U.S. President Donald Trump, who urged Tehran to engage in nuclear negotiations. Iranian officials cautioned that any provocation would be met with retaliation.

    Tensions escalated further after the European Union designated Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps as a terrorist organization. Concerns were compounded by reports that the United States was bolstering its military presence near Iran, while Tehran announced live-fire military exercises in the strategically vital Strait of Hormuz, heightening worries over regional security.

    Markets are closely watching the potential impact of these developments on shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint between Iran and the Arabian Peninsula that handles daily flows of crude oil and LNG. According to Dow Jones Newswires, Westpac Strategy Group warned that any regime change in Iran would likely be disorderly, unlike the U.S-backed removal of Venezuela’s Nicolas Maduro or targeted strikes such as those on Fordow.

    Separately, the Trump administration eased certain sanctions on Venezuela’s oil sector on Thursday to attract U.S. investment following President Nicolas Maduro’s removal earlier this month. The U.S. Treasury authorized transactions involving Venezuela’s government and state-run PDVSA, allowing U.S. firms to produce, transport, sell, and refine Venezuelan crude.

    Earlier this month, oil prices also drew support from supply disruptions in Kazakhstan, freeze-offs in the United States, and tighter U.S. restrictions on Russian oil purchases, helping underpin prices this year despite lingering expectations of global oversupply.

    Sources: Fxstreet

  • Fed holds steady, earnings mixed, oil in focus

    The S&P 500 ended the session largely unchanged ahead of a largely uneventful Federal Reserve meeting, which offered little new information beyond reaffirming that the U.S. economy remains in fairly solid condition. The tone of Chair Jay Powell’s press conference also suggested that, at least while he remains at the helm, there are likely to be few—if any—interest-rate cuts in the near term.

    Earnings released after the close were mixed. Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT) fell roughly 6.5%, while Meta Platforms (NASDAQ: META) surged about 7.5%. From an options standpoint, both stocks had bearish setups heading into earnings, with elevated implied volatility and heavy call-delta positioning at higher strike levels. Following the results, implied volatility declined, causing higher-strike calls to lose value and prompting the unwinding of hedges.

    For Meta, the key technical level was $700, which the stock managed to break through, at least initially. Revenue guidance significantly exceeded expectations, leading the market to overlook higher-than-expected capital expenditures for now. The key question will be whether Meta can hold above the $700 level once regular trading resumes.

    For Microsoft, the key level was $500, which the stock failed to break despite reporting better-than-expected results. Investor sentiment was weighed down by weaker-than-expected growth in its Azure cloud business.

    For Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA), the setup ahead of earnings was more mixed, but $450 clearly stood out as the key level to break. So far, the stock has tested that threshold but has been unable to hold above it.

    After-hours moves can be unpredictable, which is why it often makes sense to wait and see how price action develops during regular trading hours. How the CDS market trades tomorrow may be even more telling, potentially offering a clearer read on the true implications of the earnings reports.

    For now, near-term rate expectations appear more closely tied to oil than to any other factor. Crude has broken out and moved above its 200-day moving average, a technical development that could set the stage for a rally toward $65 in the near term.

    Whether looking at the 2-year or 10-year Treasury yield, the correlation with oil prices since late 2022 has been remarkably strong. As a result, if oil continues to move higher, it would likely put upward pressure on interest rates as well. In that sense, oil may have been the final missing link in the case for higher rates.

    Sources: Michael Kramer

  • Oil prices gain on U.S. supply disruptions and weaker dollar

    Oil prices climbed in Asian trading on Wednesday, extending the previous session’s gains after severe cold weather disrupted U.S. production, signaling tighter supply conditions.

    Crude was also supported by a weaker dollar, which slid to near a four-year low this week, while markets continued to monitor heightened tensions between the United States and Iran following comments from President Donald Trump that a second armada was heading to the Middle East.

    Brent futures for March edged up 0.1% to $67.66 a barrel, hovering near a four-month high, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures rose 0.2% to $62.53 a barrel by 20:49 ET (01:49 GMT).

    Oil prices jump as U.S. snowstorm disrupts supply

    Oil’s advance this week was largely fueled by a powerful winter storm sweeping across the United States, which disrupted crude output in several producing regions.

    Exports from the U.S. Gulf Coast were also brought to a standstill, as heavy snowfall and sub-zero temperatures blanketed large parts of the country. According to Reuters estimates, roughly 2 million barrels per day of production were affected over the weekend.

    These supply interruptions have prompted traders to brace for sharp drawdowns in U.S. crude inventories in the weeks ahead, signaling tighter supply conditions in the world’s largest oil-consuming market.

    API data points to declining U.S. inventories

    Figures from the American Petroleum Institute released late Tuesday showed an unexpected decline in U.S. crude inventories last week. Stockpiles fell by roughly 250,000 barrels, according to the API, defying expectations for a 1.45 million-barrel build.

    The API report often foreshadows a similar trend in the official inventory data, which is scheduled for release later on Wednesday.

    Oil gains on softer dollar ahead of Fed rate call

    A weaker dollar also lent support to oil prices, as declines in the greenback tend to boost demand for commodities priced in the U.S. currency.

    The dollar index fell to near a four-year low on Tuesday, weighed down by investor concerns over U.S. economic uncertainty, the impending Federal Reserve interest rate decision, and intermittent trade and geopolitical policy moves under President Donald Trump.

    The Fed is broadly expected to keep interest rates unchanged at the end of its meeting later in the day, with markets focused on signals from Chair Jerome Powell regarding the policy outlook for the year ahead.

    Sources: Investing

  • Oil prices hold steady as Greenland tariff concerns ease; US crude inventories in focus

    Oil prices were largely flat in Asian trade on Thursday as U.S. President Donald Trump eased tariff threats related to Greenland. Market participants also weighed an increase in U.S. crude inventories alongside recent supply disruptions. At 22:07 ET (03:07 GMT), March Brent futures inched up 0.1% to $65.31 a barrel, while WTI crude rose 0.2% to $60.74. Both benchmarks have posted modest gains over the past two sessions, underpinned by supply concerns after OPEC+ member Kazakhstan suspended production at the Tengiz and Korolev oilfields on Sunday.

    Trump retreats from tariff threats against Greenland

    Market sentiment improved after President Trump unexpectedly softened his position on Greenland on Wednesday, stepping back from threats to impose tariffs on European countries as leverage to annex the Danish territory. He ruled out the use of force and indicated that a framework for a potential deal was emerging, easing concerns over a sharp escalation in U.S.–EU tensions that could have pressured global growth and energy demand. The de-escalation supported broader risk appetite, although oil markets remained cautious amid mixed supply and demand signals.

    U.S. crude inventories increase again, API data shows

    The American Petroleum Institute (API) reported that U.S. crude stockpiles increased by 3.04 million barrels in the week ending Jan. 16, following a build of more than 5 million barrels the previous week. Gasoline inventories surged by 6.21 million barrels, signaling weaker demand, while distillate stocks—including diesel and heating oil—slipped by 33,000 barrels.

    On the demand front, oil prices drew some support after the International Energy Agency raised its forecast for global oil demand growth in 2026 on Wednesday. Despite the upward revision, the IEA continues to expect the oil market to remain in a substantial surplus through 2026.

    Sources: Investing

  • WTI falls under $59.50 amid easing Iran tensions and rising US – EU trade war fears

    • WTI crude prices edged lower to around $59.25 in early European trading on Tuesday.
    • Tensions surrounding Iran have eased in recent days following earlier speculation about a potential U.S. attack.
    • Market attention is now turning to developments around Greenland after President Trump threatened to escalate tariffs on eight European countries.

    West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the U.S. crude oil benchmark, was trading near $59.25 during early European hours on Tuesday. Prices edged lower as concerns over supply disruptions from Iran eased, while traders continued to assess the implications of the U.S. push to take control of Greenland.

    There were no signs of escalating tensions in Iran over the weekend, although Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said that 5,000 people were killed in anti-government protests this month, according to Reuters. The easing of tensions has reduced the risk of a potential U.S. attack that could disrupt supplies from a major OPEC producer, weighing on WTI prices.

    Traders are turning their focus to the Greenland crisis after U.S. President Donald Trump said on Saturday that Washington would impose an additional 10% import tariff from February 1 on goods from Denmark, Norway, Sweden, France, Germany, the Netherlands, Finland and the United Kingdom until the U.S. is permitted to purchase Greenland.

    Trump is expected to discuss Greenland at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, on Wednesday, while European Union leaders are set to hold an emergency summit in Brussels on Thursday. Concerns that tensions could escalate into a broader U.S.–EU trade war have weighed on market sentiment and may add selling pressure to oil prices.

    “With fears around Iran easing in recent days following rumors of a U.S. attack, market attention has shifted to the Greenland issue and the potential depth of any fallout between the U.S. and Europe, as an expanded trade conflict could weigh on demand,” said Janiv Shah, an analyst at Rystad.

    Meanwhile, the American Petroleum Institute’s (API) crude inventory report is due later on Tuesday. A larger-than-expected draw could signal stronger demand and support WTI prices, while a bigger-than-forecast build would point to weaker demand or oversupply, potentially pressuring prices lower.

    Sources: Fxstreet

  • Crude Oil Outlook: WTI Climbs to Highest Levels in Over Three Months as Escalating Iran Tensions Stir Market Worries

    Oil prices are rising sharply, as WTI nears $62 and Brent crude moves up toward $66 per barrel. These increases highlight the market’s responsiveness to geopolitical tensions, despite no actual disruptions in supply. The question remains: where will prices go from here?

    Main Highlights of WTI Crude Oil

    • WTI Crude Oil prices are sharply rising amid concerns that ongoing protests in Iran might escalate and impact production or disrupt the Strait of Hormuz.
    • However, this upward pressure is balanced by underlying fundamentals and a global surplus.
    • The current price around $62 is a crucial threshold: surpassing this resistance level could pave the way for a rally toward the six-month highs near $66.

    In today’s trading environment, it can be difficult for market participants to isolate the key drivers of price action on a day‑to‑day basis. Beyond enduring themes like economic growth trajectories, inflation trends, the expansion of AI infrastructure, and sovereign debt pressures, fresh geopolitical tensions seem to emerge almost daily.

    Amid simmering issues in places like Venezuela — and speculation about other potential flashpoints — Iran has become the dominant focus for energy markets. Nationwide protests there, sparked by severe economic strains and a collapsing currency, have raised serious questions about stability in one of the world’s most influential oil‑producing countries.

    Although these demonstrations have not yet led to direct disruptions in oil output, the unrest has prompted traders to price in a growing geopolitical risk premium. Concerns about possible escalation — including the risk of broader conflict or disruption to key infrastructure such as the Strait of Hormuz, through which a large share of global seaborne oil exports transit — are contributing to recent volatility in crude prices.

    As a reminder, Iran remains a key influence on global energy markets due to both its oil production capacity and its control over the Strait of Hormuz — a vital maritime chokepoint through which nearly 20 million barrels per day of crude and petroleum products transit, representing a large share of seaborne global oil flows. Any actual or perceived threat to exports or shipping through this route can have outsized impacts on pricing and risk sentiment.

    Against this backdrop, oil prices have recently climbed, with Brent trading in the mid‑$60s and WTI previously approaching the $62 per barrel area, as traders price in geopolitical risk tied to the unrest in Iran. This reflects markets’ sensitivity to potential escalations, even though there have been no confirmed widespread production outages to date.

    However, this upside is balanced by broader market fundamentals. Global oil inventories remain substantial, and additional output from other producers — including resumed Venezuelan exports and lingering oversupply concerns — continues to temper the rally. This backdrop helps explain why prices have fluctuated and, at times, pulled back when geopolitical anxieties ease.

    Looking ahead, the future direction of crude prices is likely to hinge on developments in Iran’s domestic unrest and whether tensions translate into actual disruptions in oil production or interference with key export infrastructure such as the Strait of Hormuz. So far, most of the price appreciation has been driven by risk premium and sentiment rather than physical losses of barrels.

    If broader instability were to disrupt supply routes or exports, markets could respond with a more pronounced and sustained price surge, particularly given the strategic importance of Middle East exports to the global oil system. However, short‑term moves are also currently influenced by macro factors such as inventory data and demand signals, as well as comments from policymakers that can quickly recalibrate risk perceptions.

    Technical Analysis of Crude Oil: Daily Chart for WTI

    Looking at the technicals, WTI Crude Oil is on a five-day winning streak, climbing from the lower end of its three-month trading range between $55 and $62 up to the upper boundary. Chart-wise, the current price level is a crucial threshold: a break above the $62 resistance — which also aligns with the 200-day moving average — could open the door for further gains toward the six-month highs around $66, where it would face resistance from the longer-term bearish trend line drawn from the second half of 2023’s peak.

    Conversely, if indications emerge that the protests are easing and stability is being restored in Iran, the geopolitical risk premium currently weighing on crude prices may diminish. This could trigger a reversal, causing prices to retreat below the $60 mark. Regardless of the outcome, oil traders should closely monitor developments in Iran in the days ahead.

    Sources: StoneX

  • WTI Falls Below $61 Amid Rising U.S. Stockpiles and Resumption of Venezuelan Oil Exports

    WTI crude slipped to around $60.70 during Wednesday’s Asian trading session, pressured by significant increases in U.S. crude stockpiles. Meanwhile, President Trump assured Iranian protesters that support is forthcoming.

    West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the U.S. crude oil benchmark, was trading near $60.70 during Wednesday’s Asian session, as prices edged lower amid rising supply pressures. WTI has been pressured by Venezuela restarting oil exports and the latest American Petroleum Institute (API) report showing a large build in U.S. crude inventories, while traders await the official Energy Information Administration (EIA) stockpile figures later in the day.

    According to Reuters and industry sources, Venezuela has begun reversing recent production cuts made under its previous U.S. oil embargo, allowing crude exports to resume. Two supertankers carrying roughly 1.8 million barrels each departed Venezuelan waters, potentially marking the first shipments under a 50‑million‑barrel supply arrangement with Washington, following U.S. control of the country’s exports after political developments.

    U.S. crude inventories saw a significant increase last week, with the American Petroleum Institute (API) reporting a build of 5.27 million barrels for the week ending January 9. This contrasts sharply with the previous week’s drawdown of 2.8 million barrels and defies market expectations, which had forecasted a 2 million barrel decline.

    Despite the growing stockpiles, ongoing geopolitical tensions in Iran—a key oil producer—could provide support for WTI prices. U.S. President Donald Trump canceled all planned meetings with Iranian officials and pledged assistance to protesters amid reports of a severe crackdown by Iranian security forces, which has resulted in hundreds of deaths. Trump has repeatedly warned that the U.S. would intervene if the Iranian government continues to target demonstrators.

    Sources: Investing

  • Asia FX weakens amid caution over Trump tariff threats, Iran tensions, and questions surrounding the Fed’s autonomy

    Most Asian currencies weakened on Tuesday, with the Japanese yen falling to a one-year low, as higher oil prices fueled by unrest in Iran pressured the region. Meanwhile, new political and trade developments in the United States dampened investor sentiment.

    The U.S. Dollar Index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of major currencies, rose 0.1% after a slight decline in the previous session. Dollar Index futures were also up 0.1% as of 03:36 GMT.

    Japan’s currency drops to a one-year low following news of a possible snap election

    The yen was the worst-performing currency, as USD/JPY climbed 0.4% to 158.76, its highest level since January 2025. The currency came under pressure after reports suggested that Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi could call a snap election as early as February. Investors speculated that a potential election win would strengthen her mandate for expansionary fiscal policies, further weighing on the yen.

    Markets focus on Trump’s tariff threat, unrest in Iran, and higher oil prices

    Risk appetite across Asia stayed cautious following U.S. President Donald Trump’s announcement of a 25% tariff on goods from countries “doing business” with Iran, though specifics on timing and coverage remain unclear.

    Meanwhile, oil prices rose further amid deadly anti-government protests in Iran, sparking concerns over potential supply disruptions. The unrest has also led to warnings of possible military intervention from Trump, heightening geopolitical risk premiums.

    MUFG analysts noted that Asian currencies may have been negatively affected by recent rises in oil prices, driven by events in both Venezuela and Iran.

    They added that, aside from China, countries like Turkey, the United Arab Emirates, and to a lesser extent Russia and India, maintain some trade connections with Iran.

    In Asia, the South Korean won (USD/KRW) rose 0.4%, marking its seventh consecutive gain. The Indian rupee (USD/INR) increased slightly by 0.1%, while the Singapore dollar (USD/SGD) remained stable. In China, the onshore yuan (USD/CNY) showed little movement, whereas the offshore yuan (USD/CNH) edged up 0.1%. The Australian dollar (AUD/USD) traded mostly flat.

    Concerns over Fed independence trigger risk-averse sentiment

    The Trump administration has launched a criminal probe into Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell regarding his testimony about renovation activities at the central bank’s headquarters, raising concerns about the Fed’s independence.

    In response, Powell issued a statement affirming the Fed’s autonomy and assuring that policy decisions will remain based solely on economic data and the central bank’s mandate. Several former Fed chairs and senior officials have publicly expressed their support for Powell.

    “It’s a wait-and-see situation as markets attempt to gauge the actual impact of these developments,” noted analysts from ING in a recent report.

    Despite a softer U.S. dollar, Asian currencies found it difficult to gain, as investors remained focused on broader U.S. political risks, trade uncertainties, and rising oil prices.

    Focus is also shifting to upcoming U.S. economic reports and any indications from the Federal Reserve, as market participants reevaluate interest rate forecasts amid increased political scrutiny of the central bank.

    Sources: Investing

  • WTI Holds Steady Above $59 Amid Increasing Supply Concerns

    • WTI prices rise amid growing supply concerns linked to escalating unrest in Iran.
    • President Trump has warned Tehran against using force on protesters, while Iran has warned the U.S. and Israel against any intervention.
    • However, oil price gains may be capped due to anticipated resumption of Venezuelan exports and forecasts of a potential market oversupply.

    West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude extended its gains for a third consecutive session, trading around $59.10 per barrel during Asian hours on Monday. The rise in oil prices is driven by growing supply concerns amid escalating protests in Iran. As OPEC’s fourth-largest producer, exporting nearly 2 million barrels per day, any conflict escalation poses a significant risk to global supply.

    The unrest, now in its third week and having reportedly resulted in hundreds of casualties, has prompted Iranian authorities to signal a harsher crackdown. Meanwhile, U.S. President Donald Trump warned Tehran against using force on protesters and suggested possible intervention if the situation worsens, while Iranian officials cautioned against any U.S. or Israeli involvement.

    Oil price gains may be restrained by expectations that Venezuelan crude exports could resume following political changes in the country, with the U.S. poised to receive or manage up to 50 million barrels of sanctioned oil under a new arrangement with interim authorities. This potential influx of supply has tempered some of the upside from geopolitical risk.

    However, uncertainty remains over the timing and scale of Venezuelan shipments, as shifting U.S. policy and the logistics of restarting exports from dilapidated ports and vessels cloud the outlook for actual flows.

    Meanwhile, traders are watching for possible supply disruptions from Russia amid ongoing Ukraine attacks on energy infrastructure and the prospect of tougher U.S. sanctions on Russian energy exports — factors that could add upward pressure on prices if they materially reduce output.

    Sources: Fxstreet

  • Oil prices remain steady despite deadly protests in Iran and relaxed restrictions on Venezuela

    Oil prices remained mostly steady during Asian trading on Monday as investors balanced concerns over potential supply disruptions due to escalating unrest in Iran against the likelihood of more Venezuelan crude returning to the market.

    As of 22:23 ET (03:23 GMT), March Brent crude futures rose slightly by 0.1% to $63.39 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures also increased by 0.1% to $59.15 per barrel. Both benchmarks had gained over 3% last week amid heightened geopolitical tensions.

    Iran’s lethal protests raise fears of oil supply disruption

    Markets have been closely monitoring Iran, a major oil producer in the Middle East, where widespread anti-government protests have escalated in recent days. According to rights organizations, over 500 people have died amid the unrest.

    Iranian authorities have warned that U.S. military bases in the region would be targeted if Washington intervenes in support of the protesters. This threat has intensified concerns about a wider regional conflict that could disrupt oil shipments passing through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical artery for global energy supplies.

    U.S. President Donald Trump adopted a tougher stance on Iran last week, declaring that the U.S. would not remain passive if Iranian forces continue harsh crackdowns on demonstrators.

    “Iran, as the fourth-largest OPEC member, produces about 3.2 million barrels per day of crude oil, which represents a significant supply risk for the market,” ING analysts noted in a recent report.

    Resumption of Venezuelan oil exports limits upside in oil prices

    However, gains were limited by news from Venezuela, where U.S. officials indicated they might ease restrictions on the country’s oil sector. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said additional sanctions could be lifted as early as next week to help facilitate the sale of Venezuelan crude and support oil exports.

    President Donald Trump also revealed plans for Venezuela to turn over up to 30 – 50 million barrels of previously sanctioned oil to the United States.

    Despite the prospects of renewed output, major oil companies are cautious about re-entering the Venezuelan market without substantial legal and political reforms. ExxonMobil has described the country as “uninvestable” without major changes, and analysts note that firms whose assets were nationalised previously may be reluctant to return without adequate compensation.

    Sources: Investing

  • Looking Back at the First 25 Years of the 21st Century

    Reflecting on the start of this century, the first striking observation is our national shortsightedness. After surviving Y2K and the dot-com crash in 2000, our leaders assumed the path ahead would be smooth sailing from year one onward.

    However, reality proved otherwise, beginning with a series of black swan events, notably the attacks on the World Trade Center and Pentagon on September 11. While such events are inherently unpredictable, it’s remarkable that the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) economists confidently forecasted in 2001 a future of continuous budget surpluses, anticipating the complete elimination of national debt by 2011.

    For reasons unknown, the CBO issues 10-year federal spending and revenue projections, despite having no solid factual or practical foundation to accurately forecast beyond a year or two—akin to trying to predict the weather a year in advance.

    The January 2001 CBO report highlights this myopia. Their projections simply extended current trends indefinitely without grounding in reality. Under this unrealistic mandate, the CBO projected a cumulative surplus of $5.6 trillion for 2002–2011.

    In reality, deficits over that decade totaled $6.1 trillion—a swing of $11.7 trillion. It would have been much simpler to just flip a plus sign to a minus. The projections failed to account for the soaring costs of Bush’s “War on Terror” post-9/11, which led to prolonged wars in Afghanistan and Iraq, the bursting of the real estate bubble, and massive TARP bailouts to rescue large banks.

    In short, this is a summary of CBO’s flawed foresight:

    The first takeaway from this bleak forecast is that the CBO economists assumed deficits would increase in a smooth, predictable fashion—almost as if they were drawing a straight line with minor fluctuations, rather than reflecting the unpredictable realities of economic growth.

    A second point is that the 2003 Bush tax cuts were not the main driver of the deficits. In fact, annual deficits dropped significantly—from $413 billion in fiscal year 2004 (which began October 1, 2003) to just $161 billion in fiscal year 2007. This means the deficit shrank by more than half during the four years following the tax cuts and before the 2007 real estate crash.

    While much of this now feels like distant history, the ongoing wars and the Federal Reserve’s drastic response to the 2008 financial crisis—keeping interest rates near zero for eight years, essentially through the entire Obama administration—contributed to massive deficits that have persisted through to today, especially in the five years following the COVID-19 pandemic.

    Since 2001, U.S. federal deficits have averaged about $1 billion annually, but that figure has surged to over $2 trillion per year since 2020, according to the U.S. Treasury.

    Today, the total federal deficit stands at $38 trillion, which amounts to roughly $110,000 owed per American—far from the anticipated surpluses once projected.

    Following a Challenging 2000–2009, Markets Surged in the First Quarter

    What about the markets? After nearly a “lost decade” lasting nine years from March 2000 to March 2009, all major market indexes have experienced remarkable growth—particularly gold relative to the U.S. dollar.

    By March 9, 2009, three of the four major indexes—the S&P 500, NASDAQ, and Russell 2000—had fallen by 50% since the decade began (while the Dow was down 40%), but they bounced back strongly from 2009 through 2025:

    Over the same 25-year period, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 83%, which means the real market gains were somewhat diminished.

    The U.S. dollar performed even worse, losing about 10% in value overall (and 8% against the euro), while gold and silver surged more than 15 times in value:

    The first-quarter returns were decent, but the strong performance of gold and silver signals that the dollar—and the CBO’s deficit forecasts—cannot be relied on in the long run. In fact, President Trump has set a goal for 2026 to deliberately weaken the dollar against the Chinese yuan to “help” exporters boost overseas sales. Much of the talk about the dominance of the “King Dollar” is just rhetoric. In reality, many politicians aim to devalue their currencies to encourage trade, turning paper money into a “race to the bottom,” while gold quietly holds its value, watching from the sidelines.

    This brings us to the 2025 summary—a major victory for precious metals as the dollar dropped by 10%.

    2025 Brought Massive Gains for Precious Metals

    The year 2025 exemplified the key trends seen over the past 25 years—while the stock market continued to climb, gold and silver surged even faster. Although inflation is easing, gold today serves less as an inflation hedge and more as a safeguard against crises, a hedge against the dollar, and increasingly, a hedge against cryptocurrency volatility.

    In 2025, the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) dropped by 10%, allowing major global currencies to gain between 5% and 15%. Meanwhile, the poorest-performing investments of 2025 brought good news for consumers through lower food and energy prices:

    So, if 2026 mirrors the gains of 2025, it will surely be a rewarding year for most investors.

    Sources: Investing

  • Greenland emerges as Trump’s next focus in geopolitics and a potential boon for the oil industry

    TASIILAQ, GREENLAND — For decades, oil executives have eyed the Arctic as a potential source for vast petroleum reserves. U.S. government studies estimate that the region north of the Arctic Circle may contain up to 90 billion barrels of oil and nearly 1,700 trillion cubic feet of natural gas.

    The amount of oil alone could meet global demand for almost three years if all other drilling activities worldwide stopped immediately.

    At the heart of these ambitions lies Greenland, where some of the planet’s most extreme conditions safeguard vast reserves that have attracted prospectors hoping to find another giant oil field like Alaska’s Prudhoe Bay.

    One company, March GL—set to be renamed Greenland Energy Company upon going public this year—is aiming to become a major player in the industry by tapping into billions of barrels of oil located on Jameson Land, a peninsula on Greenland’s eastern coast. This oil has the potential to significantly impact U.S. and European markets by introducing a large new supply, which could help reduce Europe’s reliance on Russian oil, currently constrained by strict sanctions due to the ongoing war in Ukraine.

    In late October, Yahoo Finance joined March GL CEO and experienced oilman Robert Price, along with the company’s lead petroleum engineer, in the town of Tasiilaq on Greenland’s eastern coast. There, March GL’s contractors were preparing to store a range of heavy machinery for the winter season.

    Price had planned to transport the earthmoving equipment by barge to Jameson Land, where the company intends to build a three-mile road from the coast to its inland drilling site for the initial wells. However, rough seas along the island’s eastern coast prevented the tugboat assigned to move the equipment from making the trip. By late autumn, the ice-free window for such a journey was closing too fast to wait for a replacement vessel.

    As a result, March GL’s team will keep much of the machinery in Tasiilaq until spring or summer, when thawing ice will allow movement. This delay underscores the challenging and unpredictable operating conditions in Greenland.

    Since that trip, the challenges around Price’s ambitions in Greenland have only grown more complex.

    After Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro was captured and removed from power in early January, President Trump intensified his focus on Greenland. At a Jan. 4 press briefing, Trump said the United States “needs Greenland” to secure its national security interests in the Arctic, drawing strong criticism from both the Greenlandic and Danish governments.

    At a White House meeting with more than a dozen major oil executives, Trump insisted that owning Greenland would be essential for defense, saying that defending leased territory is not the same as defending territory the U.S. owns. He added that the U.S. would take action on Greenland “whether they like it or not.”

    In a Jan. 6 briefing to Congress, Secretary of State Marco Rubio confirmed that the U.S. was actively pursuing the option of purchasing Greenland from Denmark, and Louisiana Governor Jeff Landry—who Trump named as a special envoy to Greenland—said he intends to work toward making the territory part of the United States.

    These moves have heightened diplomatic tensions, with Greenland’s leaders and Denmark pushing back against U.S. efforts and stressing that the island’s future should be decided by its people and legal processes.

    Meanwhile, China and Russia have been expanding their military and maritime activities across the Arctic, putting pressure on the U.S. and Europe to boost their own defense readiness and elevating Greenland’s strategic importance. In January, a subsidiary of Russia’s state nuclear corporation shared a video on Telegram showing an icebreaker navigating the “Northern Sea Route,” which passes near Greenland and offers a significantly faster shipping route between Europe and Asia compared to the Suez Canal.

    If March GL succeeds, Price’s company could establish a significant American energy foothold in the High North at a time when territorial control has become a top priority for the White House. That, however, was not originally part of Price’s plan.

    Sources: Yahoo Finance

  • Firms rush to book vessels and organize logistics to move Venezuelan oil, sources say

    Oil companies seeking to take part in newly approved exports of Venezuelan crude to the United States after the removal of President Nicolás Maduro are holding urgent talks to secure tankers and organize operations to safely transfer oil from ships and deteriorating Venezuelan ports, according to four sources familiar with the matter.

    Trading firms and energy companies such as Chevron, Vitol, and Trafigura are vying for U.S. government contracts to export Venezuelan crude, the sources said, after President Donald Trump announced that Venezuela could deliver up to 50 million barrels of previously sanctioned oil to the United States.

    Trafigura told the White House in a meeting on Friday that its first vessel is expected to load within the coming week.

    After months under a U.S. blockade, Venezuela has been storing crude aboard tankers and has nearly exhausted its onshore storage capacity. Many of these vessels are aging, poorly maintained, and subject to sanctions. Due to insurance and liability restrictions, other ships cannot directly interact with sanctioned tankers—even if U.S. licenses are granted—sources added.

    Onshore storage facilities have also suffered years of neglect, creating additional risks for companies attempting to load the oil.

    Shipping firms including Maersk Tankers and American Eagle Tankers are among those seeking to expand ship-to-ship transfer operations in Venezuela, according to three of the sources.

    According to one source, Maersk Tankers could reuse the ship-to-shore-to-ship logistics model it previously employed in Venezuela’s Amuay Bay. The company already operates in nearby Aruba and Curaçao, whose waters are frequently used for transferring Venezuelan oil. However, while such transfers are feasible in Aruba and at U.S. ports, they come at a higher cost.

    In a statement, Maersk said its presence in Venezuela remains limited, with only 17 employees in the country. The company confirmed that all staff are safe and accounted for, and that there have been no changes to its ocean services. Operations are continuing with only minor delays, and the situation is being closely monitored.

    Another shipping source noted that transfer operations will be further complicated by a shortage of smaller vessels needed to move oil from storage tankers to piers, where it can then be transferred to other ships, as well as by poorly maintained machinery and equipment.

    American Eagle Tankers (AET), which already facilitates Chevron’s shipments of Venezuelan crude to the United States, is being contacted by potential customers seeking to expand its capacity in the region, two sources said.

    Neither AET nor Chevron immediately responded to requests for comment.

    Sources added that while exports could potentially return to the roughly 500,000 barrels per day that Venezuela shipped to the United States before sanctions—allowing stockpiles to be drawn down within 90 to 120 days—reaching that level will be difficult if crude must be sourced from both offshore tankers and onshore storage facilities.

    Companies are also fiercely competing for loading slots at Venezuela’s main Jose oil terminal, where both capacity and operating speed are constrained. Chevron, a major joint-venture partner in the country, is working aggressively to maintain its preferential access to Venezuelan terminals while preparing its vessel fleet, according to one source.

    Meanwhile, oil firms including Chevron, Vitol, and Trafigura are already securing supplies of much-needed naphtha, a Venezuelan industry source said. Naphtha is commonly blended with heavy Venezuelan crude to reduce its density, making it easier to transport and refine.

    Sources: Reuters

  • Oil prices climb on supply disruption risks as Venezuela market worries fade

    Oil prices advanced during Asian trading on Friday, extending the previous session’s rebound as investors focused on possible supply disruptions in Russia and Iran amid geopolitical risks.

    At the same time, fears of an immediate rise in Venezuelan oil output subsided after the U.S. Senate approved a measure requiring congressional authorization for further military action by President Trump.

    Analysts said oil production in the country is unlikely to increase sharply in the near term, even with U.S. intervention.

    Brent crude futures for March rose 0.7% to $62.44 a barrel, while WTI futures gained 0.7% to $58.03 by 21:04 ET (02:04 GMT). Both benchmarks rebounded to levels seen before last week’s U.S. military action in Venezuela after posting more than 4% gains on Thursday.

    Oil prices were supported by positive inflation data from China, the world’s top oil importer, signaling a tentative economic recovery. However, gains were limited as traders remained cautious ahead of key U.S. nonfarm payrolls data that could affect interest rate expectations.

    Markets focus on potential supply disruptions in Russia and Iran

    Concerns about possible supply disruptions in Russia and the Middle East lent support to oil prices this week.

    The conflict between Russia and Ukraine showed little sign of resolution, with ongoing military actions. A drone strike on a tanker headed to Russia in the Black Sea heightened fears of further interruptions to Russian crude supplies.

    Compounding these concerns, reports indicated that U.S. President Donald Trump plans to endorse a bipartisan bill imposing even tougher restrictions on countries trading with Russia, aiming to increase pressure on Moscow to seek a ceasefire.

    Meanwhile, Iraq’s government approved a move to nationalize operations at the West Qurna 2 oilfield—one of the world’s largest—in an effort to avoid supply disruptions stemming from U.S. sanctions on Russia.

    In Iran, escalating nationwide anti-government protests have raised worries about potential impacts on oil production. The government responded with a countrywide internet blackout as demonstrations spread across major cities protesting the Nezam regime.

    Market concerns over Venezuelan oil supply ease

    Oil prices benefited from easing worries that a U.S. intervention in Venezuela would lead to a significant near-term surge in global crude supply.

    Earlier this week, Trump stated that Caracas could deliver up to $3 billion worth of oil to the U.S. and indicated plans for long-term U.S. influence over the country.

    However, Congress has advanced legislation that may restrict U.S. military involvement in Venezuela.

    Many analysts noted that while U.S. involvement could eventually help boost Venezuelan oil production, persistent political turmoil and deteriorated infrastructure make any near‑term surge in output unlikely.

    Oil prices initially plunged after the U.S. detained Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and signaled control over the country’s oil industry, but prices had fully recovered by Friday as markets judged immediate changes to supply to be limited.

    Still, crude prices were experiencing their steepest annual decline in five years in 2025, weighed down by concerns over a widening supply glut and sluggish demand growth—an outlook echoed by major global institutions forecasting continued oversupply into 2026.

    Sources: Investing

  • Crude prices climb as markets weigh U.S. stockpile draw and Venezuelan supply developments

    Oil prices climbed during Asian trading on Thursday, regaining some losses after sharp declines triggered by worries over rising Venezuelan crude supplies.

    Additionally, stronger-than-anticipated weekly declines in U.S. oil inventories supported the price recovery. Ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine also contributed to maintaining a risk premium in the market.

    March Brent crude futures increased by 0.7% to reach $60.38 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures also gained 0.7%, settling at $56.28 per barrel as of 20:25 ET (01:25 GMT). Both benchmarks had fallen more than 1% over the previous two sessions.

    Attention turns to US – Venezuela oil agreement after Trump highlights up to $3 billion in planned crude sales

    Oil markets are closely watching the impact of a new agreement between the U.S. and Venezuela on global oil supplies.

    U.S. President Donald Trump announced on Tuesday that Venezuela will deliver between 30 million and 50 million barrels of oil to the U.S., valued at up to $3 billion, shortly after U.S. forces detained Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro.

    Trump also appeared to encourage multiple U.S. oil companies to expand production activities in Venezuela, with Chevron Corp (NYSE: CVX) leading these efforts. According to Reuters, Chevron is negotiating to broaden its license to operate in the country.

    Currently, Chevron is the only major U.S. oil company active in Venezuela, benefiting from special government exemptions that shield it from stringent sanctions imposed on the nation.

    Markets are worried that a significant rise in Venezuelan oil output could further swell global supplies, adding to prevailing fears of an oil glut in 2026. Traders are already pricing in ample supply conditions, with expectations that any additional barrels from Venezuela might weigh on crude prices.

    However, analysts caution that any meaningful increase in Venezuelan production is unlikely to happen quickly, given the country’s deep political instability and the extensive investment needed to rebuild its dilapidated oil infrastructure after recent upheavals.

    A Financial Times report also noted that U.S. oil firms are seeking strong legal and financial guarantees from the U.S. government before committing to major investments in Venezuela’s oil sector, reflecting industry hesitancy amid uncertain policy and market conditions.

    U.S. crude stockpiles decline beyond forecasts

    Government data released Wednesday revealed that U.S. oil inventories fell by 3.8 million barrels in the week ending January 2, significantly exceeding expectations of a 1.2 million barrel decline.

    This reduction was almost double the 1.9 million barrel draw reported the previous week, bolstering confidence that demand remains robust in the world’s largest fuel consumer.

    Attention this week centers on several key U.S. economic reports, especially the December nonfarm payrolls data set to be released on Friday, which is expected to influence interest rate forecasts.

    Sources: Investing

  • Crude oil drops 1% as Trump announces Venezuela will send oil supplies to the United States

    Oil prices tumbled in Asian trading on Wednesday after U.S. President Donald Trump said Venezuela would deliver tens of millions of barrels of crude to the United States, a development expected to significantly increase global supply. Prices were already under pressure earlier in the week, as Washington’s takeover of Venezuela fueled expectations of a broad easing of sanctions on the country’s oil sector—potentially releasing tens of millions of barrels back onto the market.

    Despite elevated geopolitical risks adding a modest risk premium, oil prices stayed under pressure as markets grew increasingly concerned about a potential supply glut in 2026. Crude was already on track for its steepest annual decline in five years in 2025. Brent futures for March slid 1% to $60.11 a barrel at 20:13 ET (01:13 GMT), while U.S. benchmark WTI dropped 1.1% to $56.29 a barrel.

    Venezuela to send 30–50 million barrels of crude to the United States, Trump says

    In a post on social media, Trump said Venezuela would transfer between 30 and 50 million barrels of oil to the United States, with Washington planning to sell the crude at prevailing market prices. He added that the proceeds from the sales would be managed by him as U.S. president, stating that the funds would be used to serve the interests of both Venezuela and the United States.

    The announcement follows just days after U.S. forces detained Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro, when Trump said Washington was taking control of the country and planned to open up its oil sector. Oil prices initially fell after Maduro’s capture, as markets anticipated that a potential easing of U.S. sanctions on Venezuela could unleash large volumes of crude onto global markets. Trump’s actions since then suggest that this outcome is increasingly likely.

    However, analysts cautioned that any reopening of Venezuela’s energy industry could take longer than expected, citing risks of political instability and the constraints of the nation’s aging infrastructure. Data from maritime analytics firm Kpler also indicated that a near-term increase in Venezuelan output is unlikely due to limited domestic storage capacity.

    Russia-Ukraine ceasefire draws attention as U.S. backs security guarantees for Kyiv

    Oil markets were also tracking any fresh developments in talks on a Russia–Ukraine ceasefire after the United States on Tuesday endorsed a largely European-led coalition that pledged to provide security guarantees for Kyiv.

    The U.S. commitment was made at a Paris summit aimed at reassuring Ukraine in the event of a truce with Moscow. Washington also said it was prepared to help monitor and verify any ceasefire should an agreement be reached. However, Russia has so far shown limited willingness to engage in a ceasefire, with fighting between the two sides continuing as the war moves toward its fifth consecutive year.

    Even so, any prospective ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine could ultimately lead to a rollback of U.S. sanctions on Moscow, allowing additional Russian oil to return to the market. Such a development would also reduce the geopolitical risk premium embedded in crude prices.

    Sources: Investing

  • Trump stated that Venezuela would supply the United States with 30–50 million barrels of oil

    U.S. President Donald Trump said on Tuesday night that Venezuela’s interim government would transfer tens of millions of barrels of oil to the United States, with the proceeds from sales to be managed by Washington. In a social media post, Trump said Caracas would hand over between “30 and 50 million barrels of high-quality, sanctioned oil,” which would be sold at market prices. He added that the revenue would be overseen by him as president to ensure it benefits both the Venezuelan and U.S. people, and noted that he had directed Energy Secretary Chris Wright to implement the plan immediately.

    The proposed arrangement could redirect Venezuelan oil exports away from China while helping state-run PDVSA avoid deeper production cuts, following reports that Washington and Caracas were in talks over a supply agreement. The announcement comes days after U.S. forces captured President Nicolas Maduro, heightening political uncertainty in Venezuela. Maduro’s vice president, Delcy Rodriguez, was sworn in as interim leader this week and has signaled her willingness to cooperate with Washington.

    Trump said the United States would oversee Venezuela until a permanent leader is elected and would also assume control of the country’s aging oil sector. Following the announcement, oil prices fell, as a U.S. takeover could bring large volumes of crude to market and boost supply. March Brent futures dropped 2%.

    Source: Investing

  • Can a Trump Presidency Revive Venezuela’s Vast Oil Reserves?

    The removal of Venezuela’s current leadership would likely signal a sharp shift in Washington’s stated objectives—from a focus on counter-narcotics pressure to a far more ambitious agenda: unlocking one of the world’s largest oil reserves and reopening the country to U.S. energy companies.

    “The oil business in Venezuela has been a bust—a total bust—for a long period of time,” U.S. President Donald Trump told reporters on Saturday.

    “We’re going to have our very large United States oil companies—the biggest anywhere in the world—go in, spend billions of dollars, fix the badly broken oil infrastructure, and start making money for the country.”

    The central question for Trump’s administration is whether political change alone would be sufficient to revive an industry hollowed out by decades of mismanagement, corruption, and chronic underinvestment.

    On paper, Venezuela’s oil potential is vast. Government figures put proven reserves at more than 300 billion barrels, the largest in the world, consisting largely of heavy crude prized by refiners along the U.S. Gulf Coast and in parts of Asia.

    Analysts note that this heavy crude complements U.S. shale production, which is typically lighter and less suited to certain refinery configurations. In theory, Venezuela’s reserves could once again play a meaningful role in global energy markets.

    In practice, however, the obstacles are formidable. Venezuela currently produces less than one million barrels per day—a fraction of its output two decades ago. Infrastructure has deteriorated severely, skilled workers have fled the country, and oil fields, pipelines, ports, and refineries would require massive capital investment merely to restore reliable operations.

    Even under optimistic scenarios, years of rebuilding would be required before production could rise meaningfully. Market conditions add another layer of complexity: global oil supplies remain ample, and prices below $60 a barrel reduce the incentive for large-scale, high-risk investment abroad.

    U.S. producers must therefore weigh whether capital is better deployed in stable domestic basins rather than in a country with a long history of expropriation and contract disputes.

    Legal and institutional reform would also be indispensable. Venezuela would need to overhaul laws governing private investment, restructure roughly $160 billion in sovereign and quasi-sovereign debt, and resolve outstanding arbitration claims stemming from past nationalizations.

    Without clear property rights and predictable regulatory frameworks, international oil companies are unlikely to commit billions of dollars, regardless of political change.

    Security and governance challenges remain unresolved as well. Removing a leader does not automatically produce stability, and companies will wait to see whether a transitional government can maintain order, protect assets, and establish credible authority across the country.

    The scale of reconstruction required extends far beyond oil extraction, encompassing financing, currency stabilization, and the rebuilding of core state institutions.

    In that sense, unlocking Venezuela’s oil is ultimately less a question of geology than of politics, economics, and time.

    Sources: Investing

  • OPEC+ Confirms Steady Oil Production Despite Member Disputes

    OPEC+ delegates indicated that the group is expected to keep oil production steady at their upcoming meeting on Sunday, despite ongoing political tensions between key members Saudi Arabia and the UAE, as well as the recent U.S. capture of Venezuela’s president.

    The Sunday meeting involves eight OPEC+ members—Saudi Arabia, Russia, the UAE, Kazakhstan, Kuwait, Iraq, Algeria, and Oman—who together produce about half of the world’s oil supply. This session follows a challenging 2025, during which oil prices plunged over 18%, marking their steepest annual decline since 2020 amid concerns over oversupply.

    From April to December 2025, these eight members raised oil output targets by roughly 2.9 million barrels per day, representing nearly 3% of global oil demand. They agreed in November to pause further output increases for January through March 2026.

    According to three OPEC+ sources, Sunday’s meeting is unlikely to alter this policy.

    OPEC Faces Multiple Crises Amid Market and Political Challenges

    Tensions between Saudi Arabia and the UAE escalated last month over a decade-long conflict in Yemen, when a UAE-aligned group seized territory from the Saudi-backed government. This crisis sparked the biggest rift in decades between the former close allies, exposing years of divergence on key issues.

    Historically, OPEC has managed to navigate serious internal disputes—such as during the Iran–Iraq War—by prioritizing market stability over political conflicts. However, the group now faces multiple challenges. Russian oil exports remain under pressure from U.S. sanctions related to the Ukraine war, while Iran grapples with widespread protests and threats of U.S. intervention.

    These overlapping crises put OPEC’s cohesion and its ability to manage the global oil market to a critical test.

    On Saturday, the United States reportedly captured Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro. U.S. President Donald Trump announced that Washington would assume control of the country until a transition to a new administration can be arranged, though he did not specify how this process would be carried out.

    Venezuela holds the world’s largest proven oil reserves, surpassing even those of OPEC’s leader, Saudi Arabia. However, its oil production has sharply declined over the years due to chronic mismanagement and international sanctions.

    Analysts caution that a significant increase in crude output is unlikely in the near future, even if U.S. oil majors follow through on the multibillion-dollar investments promised by President Trump.

    Sources: Reuters