THE ETERNAL SOVEREIGN

Tag: Eur/Usd

  • EUR/USD Price Forecast: The pair is trading near 1.1700 following a rebound off the 50-day EMA

    • EUR/USD is likely to find immediate support around the 50-day EMA at 1.1684.
    • The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 47 indicates neutral momentum with weakening strength.
    • Initial resistance is expected near the nine-day EMA at 1.1724.

    EUR/USD recovers after three consecutive days of losses, trading near 1.1700 during Wednesday’s Asian session. Technical analysis on the daily chart suggests a possible bearish bias, with the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 47 indicating neutral but fading momentum.

    The pair remains above the rising 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) but stays below the nine-day EMA, which acts as resistance. While the overall trend stays positive as long as it holds above the medium-term average, failure to break above the short-term EMA could keep the recent pullback in place.

    The EUR/USD pair may retest its immediate support at the 50-day EMA of 1.1684. A close below this level would weaken medium-term momentum and likely push the pair down toward the monthly low of 1.1589, established on December 1.

    On the upside, the pair could aim for the nine-day EMA at 1.1724, followed by the three-month high of 1.1808, reached on December 24. A sustained move above these levels would strengthen short-term momentum and pave the way toward 1.1918, the highest point since June 2021.

    EUR/USD: Daily Chart

    Sources: Fxstreet

  • EUR/USD slips as weak Eurozone data pressures the euro, with markets awaiting US jobs figures

    EUR/USD retreats toward 1.1710 after being rejected near 1.1740, giving back recent gains as downward revisions to Eurozone PMIs and softer German inflation renew selling pressure on the euro. With investors now awaiting key US labor market data, expectations for Federal Reserve monetary policy remain a major driver for the euro dollar exchange rate.

    EUR/USD trades in a volatile market on Tuesday, hovering around 1.1710 at the time of writing, down 0.15% on the day. The pair has surrendered earlier gains as weaker Eurozone economic data revives concerns over the region’s growth outlook.

    Selling pressure on the euro intensified after the downward revision of the Eurozone HCOB Services Purchasing Managers Index (PMI). The index was revised to 52.4 for December, below the preliminary estimate of 52.6 and down from 53.1 in November, signaling a slowdown in services sector activity—one of the main drivers of the European economy.

    Meanwhile, German inflation data released on Tuesday point to a clear easing in price pressures. Annual CPI inflation slowed to 1.8% in December from 2.3% in November, while the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) dropped to 2.0% from 2.6%, coming in below market expectations. These readings reinforce expectations of a more subdued inflation environment across the Eurozone, limiting near-term upside for the euro.

    On the US front, economic releases have also added to volatility in EUR/USD trading. The Services PMI was revised down to 52.5 in December, its lowest level in eight months, while the Composite PMI slipped to 52.7. According to S&P Global, softer demand, weaker new orders, and slower employment growth signal that the US economy is losing momentum, even as cost pressures remain elevated.

    As a result, expectations for US monetary policy remain a key driver of the euro-dollar pair. Fed Governor Stephen Miran said on Tuesday that upcoming data are likely to support further interest rate cuts, arguing that the Federal Reserve could lower rates by more than 100 basis points this year as current policy remains restrictive and continues to weigh on economic growth.

    Overall, EUR/USD continues to trade amid mixed macroeconomic signals from both sides of the Atlantic. With no clear near-term catalyst, price action remains uneven, while investors now turn their focus to upcoming US labor market data to better gauge the timing of potential Federal Reserve easing and the short-term direction of the US dollar.

    Sources: Fxstreet

  • Weekly Market Outlook: Calm Start to the New Year as US Dollar Holds Steady Ahead of Key Data

    Financial markets extended the holiday-thinned mood on the first trading day of the new year, with investors largely staying on the sidelines. Markets remain in a wait-and-see mode ahead of a data-heavy week.

    The US Dollar Index (DXY) traded near the 98.40 area on Friday, paring a significant portion of its New Year losses.

    Gold (XAU/USD) traded around the $4,320 level, surrendering all intraday gains following the New Year’s break. Expectations of lower US interest rates and elevated geopolitical tensions have continued to support precious metals in recent sessions.

    EUR/USD hovered near 1.1740 after edging lower earlier in the week, remaining under pressure as investors await upcoming economic data.

    GBP/USD traded close to the 1.3480 area, little changed during the first US session of the year.

    USD/JPY hovered around the 156.50 region, trading slightly lower on the day with limited intraday movement.

    AUD/USD traded near the 0.6690 area on Friday, posting modest gains after paring nearly half of its intraday advance.

    Key Economic Data Ahead: Upcoming Releases Set to Shape Market Sentiment

    Over the coming days, investors will closely watch US employment figures and global inflation data, which are expected to influence central bank policies.

    • Monday: The US Institute for Supply Management (ISM) releases the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) for December.
    • Tuesday: Germany’s Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) and Australia’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) are scheduled for publication.
    • Wednesday: The US ADP Employment Change report (December), ISM Services PMI (December), and the preliminary Eurozone HICP (December) will be released.
    • Thursday: The US Trade Balance for October and Consumer Credit data for November are due.
    • January 9: The highly anticipated US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report for December and the preliminary January Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index will be published.

    These releases are expected to set the tone for market direction and provide clues on the pace of monetary tightening by major central banks.

    Sources: Fxstreet