WTI crude prices edged lower to around $59.25 in early European trading on Tuesday.
Tensions surrounding Iran have eased in recent days following earlier speculation about a potential U.S. attack.
Market attention is now turning to developments around Greenland after President Trump threatened to escalate tariffs on eight European countries.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the U.S. crude oil benchmark, was trading near $59.25 during early European hours on Tuesday. Prices edged lower as concerns over supply disruptions from Iran eased, while traders continued to assess the implications of the U.S. push to take control of Greenland.
There were no signs of escalating tensions in Iran over the weekend, although Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said that 5,000 people were killed in anti-government protests this month, according to Reuters. The easing of tensions has reduced the risk of a potential U.S. attack that could disrupt supplies from a major OPEC producer, weighing on WTI prices.
Traders are turning their focus to the Greenland crisis after U.S. President Donald Trump said on Saturday that Washington would impose an additional 10% import tariff from February 1 on goods from Denmark, Norway, Sweden, France, Germany, the Netherlands, Finland and the United Kingdom until the U.S. is permitted to purchase Greenland.
Trump is expected to discuss Greenland at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, on Wednesday, while European Union leaders are set to hold an emergency summit in Brussels on Thursday. Concerns that tensions could escalate into a broader U.S.–EU trade war have weighed on market sentiment and may add selling pressure to oil prices.
“With fears around Iran easing in recent days following rumors of a U.S. attack, market attention has shifted to the Greenland issue and the potential depth of any fallout between the U.S. and Europe, as an expanded trade conflict could weigh on demand,” said Janiv Shah, an analyst at Rystad.
Meanwhile, the American Petroleum Institute’s (API) crude inventory report is due later on Tuesday. A larger-than-expected draw could signal stronger demand and support WTI prices, while a bigger-than-forecast build would point to weaker demand or oversupply, potentially pressuring prices lower.
Gold prices surged beyond $4,800 an ounce on Wednesday, hitting a fresh record as rising tensions surrounding Greenland and renewed trade disputes unsettled global markets, prompting investors to seek refuge in safe-haven assets.
Spot gold advanced 1.7% to an all-time high of $4,844.39 an ounce by 21:13 ET (02:13 GMT), extending a powerful rally that has seen bullion notch multiple record highs this month.
Meanwhile, U.S. gold futures rose 1.3% to $4,830.04 per ounce. Gold has gained more than 5% so far this week, including Wednesday’s advance, as geopolitical tensions continue to underpin safe-haven demand.
The latest rally comes amid ongoing strain in U.S.–European relations over Greenland’s strategic significance. U.S. President Donald Trump has stated there is “no going back” on Greenland, citing Arctic security concerns, and has warned of potential tariffs on European nations—adding to market anxiety already heightened by global trade risks.
In response, French President Emmanuel Macron said Europe would not yield to “bullies,” emphasising that mutual respect and cooperation—not pressure—should guide relations between allies. Speaking on the sidelines of the World Economic Forum in Davos, Macron’s comments highlighted growing European unease over Washington’s rhetoric and trade threats linked to the Greenland issue.
Although Trump attempted to ease concerns by saying the U.S. was working toward a solution acceptable to NATO, investor caution has persisted.
Demand for gold was further supported by a weaker U.S. dollar, which fell roughly 0.8% on Tuesday to its lowest level in two weeks. The U.S. Dollar Index remained under pressure during Asian trading on Wednesday, slipping a further 0.2%.
A softer dollar typically boosts gold by making the metal more affordable for holders of other currencies, increasing demand for the non-yielding asset.
Elsewhere in the precious metals complex, silver prices dipped slightly to around $93.9 per ounce after reaching a record high of $95.87 per ounce on Tuesday. Platinum also touched a fresh all-time high of $2,519.51 per ounce on Wednesday before giving back gains, last trading about 0.6% lower at $2,450.9 per ounce.
Gold prices jumped to record highs in Asian trade on Monday, nearing $4,700 an ounce, as strong safe-haven demand followed President Donald Trump’s threat to impose fresh tariffs on eight European countries over Greenland.
Spot gold was last up 1.8% at $4,675.55 an ounce by 19:31 ET (00:31 GMT), after touching a session record of $4,690.75 earlier.U.S. gold futures rose 1.9% to $4,681.10 an ounce.
The precious metal built on last week’s strong gains, during which bullion posted a series of record highs, supported by growing expectations of U.S. interest rate cuts and elevated geopolitical risks.
Silver surged more than 4% to a fresh record high of $94.03 an ounce, buoyed by both safe-haven demand and its role as an industrial metal.
U.S. President Donald Trump said on Sunday he would impose fresh tariffs on eight European countries that have opposed Washington’s plan to acquire Greenland.Trump said a 10% levy would be introduced from Feb. 1, with the rate set to rise to 25% in June if no agreement is reached.
The affected countries include France, Germany and the United Kingdom, along with several Nordic and northern European nations.The move drew sharp criticism from European officials and reignited fears of a wider transatlantic trade dispute, driving investors toward precious metals.
The tariff threat added to an already favorable environment for gold, which has been supported in recent weeks by expectations that the Federal Reserve will begin cutting interest rates later this year.
Weaker U.S. economic data and signs of easing inflation have reinforced the case for monetary easing, lowering the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets such as gold.
Geopolitical risks have also underpinned prices, with gold rising sharply last week amid renewed concerns over developments in the Middle East, including tensions involving Iran.
Silver is being boosted by expectations of interest rate cuts, a weaker US dollar, and increasing geopolitical tensions.
Limited supply combined with record-high industrial demand make silver very responsive to changes in market risk sentiment.
Staying above $83.36 maintains potential for further gains, while dips toward $75 are likely to draw in buyers.
Silver kicks off the week with robust momentum, fueled by multiple factors converging simultaneously. Safe-haven demand is increasing due to geopolitical tensions, the broader economic environment supports expectations of US interest rate cuts, and supply remains constrained amid strong industrial demand.
As a metal that bridges both precious and industrial categories, silver typically reacts more quickly than many other assets to changes in market risk sentiment.
Interest Rates, US Dollar, and Risk Sentiment Are Aligning Together
Last week’s US December jobs report indicated a cooling labor market. Non-farm payrolls increased by only 50,000, while the unemployment rate fell to 4.4%, revealing softer underlying growth despite the headline figures.
This data boosted market expectations for an earlier Federal Reserve interest rate cut. As rate cut bets rose and the US dollar weakened, demand grew for non-yielding assets like silver, giving prices fresh support.
At the same time, increased judicial scrutiny of Jerome Powell and escalating tensions between the Federal Reserve and the administration have added more pressure on the US dollar. Rising political and institutional uncertainty has driven investors toward safe-haven assets, a trend that often causes sharper price swings not just in gold but also in silver, which typically experiences greater volatility.
Safe Haven Demand Returns to Center Stage
Uncertainty in the Middle East and global politics continues to drive safe haven demand in commodity markets. Rising protests in Iran and renewed tensions between Tehran and the US have pushed investors toward gold and silver.
Recent moves by the Trump administration involving Venezuela and Iran, including plans for Venezuelan oil exports and new sanctions threats, have added further uncertainty. In this context, silver’s rebound above $80 an ounce shows how quickly changes in risk sentiment impact prices. Ongoing geopolitical risks from the Russia-Ukraine war and the Gaza conflict also reinforce the environment supporting strong demand for safe haven assets.
Industrial Demand and Supply Challenges
Attributing silver’s rise solely to macroeconomic and geopolitical factors overlooks a key part of the picture. Industrial demand for silver is projected to hit record highs in 2025 and remain strong into 2026. Currently, about 58% of global silver demand comes from industrial uses, driven by rapid growth in sectors like solar panels, electric vehicles, electronics, and AI-related hardware.
This evolving demand profile is making silver a more strategic commodity, which helps explain why its prices often react faster and with greater volatility when risk appetite or commodity exposure shifts.
On the supply side, constraints persist. Only around 27% of silver production comes from primary silver mines; the majority is a byproduct of copper, lead, zinc, and gold mining, limiting the ability to quickly ramp up output. Following several years of supply deficits from 2021 to 2024, total silver supply in 2025 is estimated at about 813 million ounces, compared to demand of roughly 1.24 billion ounces.
Inventories in London, China, and the United States have dropped to low levels, underscoring the tight market conditions. China’s new export licensing system, implemented on January 1, has added extra pressure by complicating shipments, particularly for smaller producers. Meanwhile, silver’s designation as a critical mineral in the US, along with consistent physical buying in China and India, continues to bolster fundamental demand.
Silver’s Technical Outlook
On the daily chart, silver spent much of last week trading sideways between $74.66 and $83.36 while maintaining its overall uptrend. This consolidation above the rising trendline suggests a temporary pause rather than a reversal. Strong buying interest near $74 late last week, followed by a renewed push toward new highs this week, indicates that short-term momentum has shifted back to the buyers.
Technically, the $83.36 level is crucial. A decisive break and sustained trading above this point would turn previous resistance into support. As long as silver stays above $83.36, any pullbacks are likely profit-taking rather than a trend change, keeping the bullish outlook intact.
In this scenario, silver could pick up pace toward the Fibonacci extension targets at $87, $88.76, and $91.28. Holding above $91 would further strengthen the case for a run toward the psychological $100 mark, with a potential next target around $103.63 if momentum continues.
Momentum indicators back this positive outlook. The Stochastic RSI has been hovering near oversold levels, increasing the chance of an upside signal if silver stays above $83.36. The moving averages remain bullish, with short-term exponential moving averages trending upward and price holding above the 8-day EMA at 78.56 and the 21-day EMA at 73.20, reinforcing the prevailing upward trend.
On the downside, daily closes below $83 would raise concerns about breaking the short-term rising trend. In that case, the first support to watch is 78.56, aligning with the 8-day EMA. If that fails, the 74.50 to 74.66 zone becomes crucial, marking the base of recent consolidation and a key Fibonacci retracement level.
A decisive break below this support band could lead to a deeper correction toward 69.28 and potentially 64.93. However, if the broader fundamentals remain supportive—such as expectations for rate cuts, a weaker dollar, elevated geopolitical risks, and ongoing supply constraints—any pullbacks near $75 are likely to attract buyers.
In summary, fundamentals continue to favor silver, but technically, holding above $83.36 is critical to confirm the uptrend. As long as this level holds, silver’s path higher remains open for gradual gains.
Silver futures continue their strong upward momentum, trading near $79.80 after a significant rally that pushed prices well above the VC PMI (Variable Changing Price Momentum Indicator) average and into the upper resistance zone.
This pattern indicates the market has entered what we call escape-velocity behavior—where the trend’s acceleration temporarily outweighs short-term oscillators but still respects longer-term geometry and cycle pressures.
Looking at the VC PMI, the daily mean is holding steady around $76.02, providing dynamic support throughout the week. The market also successfully defended the Daily Buy 1 level at $73.38, confirming the strength of the current bullish setup.
Now, prices are approaching the Daily Sell 1 zone near $78.70, with the Daily Sell 2 resistance at $82.24 closely matching the previous swing high of $82.58. This overlap suggests a higher likelihood of short-term profit-taking or consolidation, rather than a reversal of the uptrend.
On the weekly VC PMI framework, silver stays solidly above the Weekly Buy 1 level at $73.70, with the Weekly VC PMI mean around $78.15, reinforcing that the prevailing trend is upward. However, the Weekly Sell 1 level at $83.78 and Weekly Sell 2 at $88.23 mark key resistance zones where momentum typically slows and volatility tends to increase.
From a time-cycle perspective, silver is currently trading within a compressed late-week cycle window, a phase where markets often pause, rotate, or experience slight retracements before the next move. Such pauses are common in strong trends and usually serve to reset momentum for continuation rather than signaling a reversal.
The present cycle alignment suggests an initial phase of range expansion, followed by consolidation, rather than signaling a trend exhaustion.
The Square of 9 geometry further supports this view. The $82–$83 area corresponds with a significant angular resistance band, while the $78–$76 range serves as a key rotational support zone. As long as prices stay above the VC PMI mean, the primary square rotation remains bullish, with higher-level targets pointing toward the mid-$80s in upcoming cycle windows.
In summary, silver maintains a strong bullish structure according to both the VC PMI and Square of 9 frameworks. Any short-term pauses or pullbacks should be seen as opportunities for mean reversion within the broader uptrend, rather than signs of trend reversal.
Oil prices climbed during Asian trading on Thursday, regaining some losses after sharp declines triggered by worries over rising Venezuelan crude supplies.
Additionally, stronger-than-anticipated weekly declines in U.S. oil inventories supported the price recovery. Ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine also contributed to maintaining a risk premium in the market.
March Brent crude futures increased by 0.7% to reach $60.38 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures also gained 0.7%, settling at $56.28 per barrel as of 20:25 ET (01:25 GMT). Both benchmarks had fallen more than 1% over the previous two sessions.
Attention turns to US – Venezuela oil agreement after Trump highlights up to $3 billion in planned crude sales
Oil markets are closely watching the impact of a new agreement between the U.S. and Venezuela on global oil supplies.
U.S. President Donald Trump announced on Tuesday that Venezuela will deliver between 30 million and 50 million barrels of oil to the U.S., valued at up to $3 billion, shortly after U.S. forces detained Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro.
Trump also appeared to encourage multiple U.S. oil companies to expand production activities in Venezuela, with Chevron Corp (NYSE: CVX) leading these efforts. According to Reuters, Chevron is negotiating to broaden its license to operate in the country.
Currently, Chevron is the only major U.S. oil company active in Venezuela, benefiting from special government exemptions that shield it from stringent sanctions imposed on the nation.
Markets are worried that a significant rise in Venezuelan oil output could further swell global supplies, adding to prevailing fears of an oil glut in 2026. Traders are already pricing in ample supply conditions, with expectations that any additional barrels from Venezuela might weigh on crude prices.
However, analysts caution that any meaningful increase in Venezuelan production is unlikely to happen quickly, given the country’s deep political instability and the extensive investment needed to rebuild its dilapidated oil infrastructure after recent upheavals.
A Financial Times report also noted that U.S. oil firms are seeking strong legal and financial guarantees from the U.S. government before committing to major investments in Venezuela’s oil sector, reflecting industry hesitancy amid uncertain policy and market conditions.
U.S. crude stockpiles decline beyond forecasts
Government data released Wednesday revealed that U.S. oil inventories fell by 3.8 million barrels in the week ending January 2, significantly exceeding expectations of a 1.2 million barrel decline.
This reduction was almost double the 1.9 million barrel draw reported the previous week, bolstering confidence that demand remains robust in the world’s largest fuel consumer.
Attention this week centers on several key U.S. economic reports, especially the December nonfarm payrolls data set to be released on Friday, which is expected to influence interest rate forecasts.
Japanese Candlesticks are a type of price chart used in financial markets to show how an asset’s price moves over a specific period of time. They are one of the most popular tools in technical analysis because they visually display market psychology—who is in control: buyers or sellers.
Origin
Japanese candlesticks were developed in Japan in the 18th century, originally used by rice traders. They were later introduced to Western markets by Steve Nison in the 1990s.
Why Candlesticks Are Powerful
Easy to read and interpret
Show market sentiment instantly
Help identify trend reversals and continuations
Work across all markets and timeframes
Used in 📈 Stocks 💱 Forex 🪙 Crypto 🛢️ Commodities
Common Candlestick Patterns
Best Practice
Candlestick patterns are most effective when combined with:
Trend analysis
Support & resistance
Volume
Indicators (RSI, MACD, Moving Averages)
Simple Definition
Japanese candlesticks are a visual price charting method that shows market psychology through price action.
Gold continued its strong rally in Asian trading on Tuesday, moving back toward record territory as rising geopolitical tensions after a U.S. strike on Venezuela boosted safe-haven demand for the metal.
Spot gold inched up 0.2% to $4,458.20 an ounce at 01:22 ET (06:22 GMT), while U.S. gold futures gained 0.4% to $4,469.10 per ounce.
Bullion had jumped 2.7% in the previous session—its biggest one-day advance in weeks—as investors sought refuge in precious metals amid growing global market uncertainty.
Although prices reached a record high of $4,549.71 per ounce last week before retreating on profit-taking, gold has since recovered and is again trading close to those peak levels.
Gold jumps as U.S. action in Venezuela and Fed rate-cut expectations fuel demand
The surge was mainly sparked by events in Venezuela, where U.S. troops carried out a surprise operation over the weekend that led to the arrest of President Nicolás Maduro, sharply intensifying geopolitical risks and unsettling commodity markets.
Officials said Maduro was taken to the United States to face long-standing narcotics-related charges and entered a not-guilty plea in a New York court on Monday.
According to Reuters, U.S. President Donald Trump is preparing to meet with executives from major American oil companies to discuss measures to increase Venezuela’s oil output.
Expectations of prolonged geopolitical tensions and potential policy changes have further strengthened gold’s role as a hedge against market volatility.
Gold also drew support from growing expectations that U.S. interest rates will continue to decline in 2026.
Markets are now factoring in two additional Federal Reserve rate cuts this year, an environment that typically benefits non-yielding assets like gold.
On Monday, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari noted that U.S. inflation has been easing gradually, strengthening the view that the central bank could have room to ease policy if price pressures keep moderating.
Investors are closely tracking upcoming U.S. economic data for further signals on the Fed’s policy direction. December’s nonfarm payrolls report, due Friday, is expected to be a crucial gauge of labor market strength and could shape rate expectations in the months ahead.
Silver and platinum climb as copper sets a new record
Other precious and industrial metals also traded firmly higher on Tuesday.
Silver surged 3% to $78.78 an ounce, while platinum gained 2% to $2,331.25 per ounce.
On the London Metal Exchange, benchmark copper futures rose 2.2% to a record $13,331.0 per ton. U.S. copper futures also advanced 1.5% to $6.07 a pound, marking their highest level on record.
According to ING analysts, copper’s continued rally has been driven by disruptions to mine supply and shifts in trade flows caused by tariffs imposed by U.S. President Trump.
Financial markets extended the holiday-thinned mood on the first trading day of the new year, with investors largely staying on the sidelines. Markets remain in a wait-and-see mode ahead of a data-heavy week.
The US Dollar Index (DXY) traded near the 98.40 area on Friday, paring a significant portion of its New Year losses.
Gold (XAU/USD) traded around the $4,320 level, surrendering all intraday gains following the New Year’s break. Expectations of lower US interest rates and elevated geopolitical tensions have continued to support precious metals in recent sessions.
EUR/USD hovered near 1.1740 after edging lower earlier in the week, remaining under pressure as investors await upcoming economic data.
GBP/USD traded close to the 1.3480 area, little changed during the first US session of the year.
USD/JPY hovered around the 156.50 region, trading slightly lower on the day with limited intraday movement.
AUD/USD traded near the 0.6690 area on Friday, posting modest gains after paring nearly half of its intraday advance.
Key Economic Data Ahead: Upcoming Releases Set to Shape Market Sentiment
Over the coming days, investors will closely watch US employment figures and global inflation data, which are expected to influence central bank policies.
Monday: The US Institute for Supply Management (ISM) releases the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) for December.
Tuesday: Germany’s Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) and Australia’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) are scheduled for publication.
Wednesday: The US ADP Employment Change report (December), ISM Services PMI (December), and the preliminary Eurozone HICP (December) will be released.
Thursday: The US Trade Balance for October and Consumer Credit data for November are due.
January 9: The highly anticipated US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report for December and the preliminary January Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index will be published.
These releases are expected to set the tone for market direction and provide clues on the pace of monetary tightening by major central banks.
