THE ETERNAL SOVEREIGN

Tag: Brent Crude

  • Markets in focus: Nvidia, Salesforce results and U.S.–Iran nuclear negotiations

    Futures tied to the main U.S. stock benchmarks edged lower as investors focused on key earnings from the technology sector. Nvidia, a heavyweight in the U.S. equity market, delivered stronger-than-expected results, though investors are seeking clearer guidance on when its substantial cash flow will translate into greater shareholder returns. Salesforce shares declined after issuing a softer revenue outlook. Meanwhile, oil prices held steady ahead of crucial nuclear negotiations between U.S. and Iranian officials.

    Futures Edge Lower

    U.S. equity futures moved down Thursday as markets digested earnings from AI leader Nvidia.

    As of 03:05 ET (08:05 GMT), Dow futures were down 122 points, or 0.3%, S&P 500 futures slipped 0.1%, and Nasdaq 100 futures also fell 0.1%. This followed gains across all major Wall Street indices in the previous session, when investors positioned ahead of Nvidia’s earnings release.

    Sentiment had improved on renewed optimism surrounding artificial intelligence, marking another shift in what has been a volatile narrative around the emerging technology. The Nasdaq led prior gains as investors regained confidence that AI could eventually deliver broad economic benefits — contrasting with earlier concerns that new AI models might disrupt software firms and limit returns on heavy data center spending.

    Remarks from Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin also supported equities, as he noted uncertainty over whether automation would significantly raise unemployment and suggested AI could instead improve labor market efficiency.

    Nvidia Little Changed Despite Strong Results

    Nvidia reported better-than-expected earnings for the January quarter and issued revenue guidance above forecasts for the current period, yet its shares were mostly flat in after-hours trading.

    Some investors questioned whether the chipmaker is returning sufficient capital to shareholders. Yvette Schmitter, CEO of Fusion Collective, pointed out that while Nvidia generated $35 billion in cash during the fourth quarter, it returned just 12% to shareholders — sharply lower than 52% a year earlier.

    She also raised concerns about reduced buybacks despite record cash generation, especially as Nvidia highlights strong demand for its sold-out Ampere chips.

    These concerns echoed questions raised during the company’s earnings call, including from a UBS analyst who asked whether Nvidia plans to distribute more of the anticipated $100 billion in cash expected this year. CFO Colette Kress emphasized ongoing investment in the broader AI ecosystem, while CEO Jensen Huang underscored AI’s foundational role in the future of computing.

    Salesforce Drops on Soft Revenue Outlook

    Salesforce shares fell in extended trading after the company issued fiscal 2027 revenue guidance below Wall Street expectations, suggesting softer demand for enterprise software amid economic uncertainty and tighter corporate budgets.

    The company projected full-year revenue between $45.80 billion and $46.20 billion, slightly below consensus estimates at the midpoint.

    Salesforce continues to invest heavily in artificial intelligence to counter investor concerns that emerging AI models, such as those developed by startups like Anthropic, could erode demand. These pressures have contributed to stock volatility as the company works to defend its position within the software-as-a-service industry.

    However, Salesforce raised its fiscal 2030 revenue forecast to $63 billion from $60 billion, citing expected growth from agentic AI offerings. Analysts at Vital Knowledge described the report as not flawless but “good enough,” highlighting strong AI product momentum, stable core performance, and solid cash flow generation.

    Oil Steady Before U.S.- Iran Talks

    Oil prices were largely unchanged Thursday, remaining near seven-month highs as markets prepared for a third round of nuclear discussions between Washington and Tehran.

    Brent crude gained 0.2% to $70.84 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate rose 0.2% to $65.62 per barrel.

    U.S. representatives, including special envoy Steve Witkoff and adviser Jared Kushner, are scheduled to meet Iranian officials in Geneva as negotiations continue over Iran’s nuclear program. President Donald Trump has warned that failure to make meaningful progress could lead to serious consequences, raising concerns that prolonged tensions may disrupt supply from Iran, a key OPEC producer.

    Gold Edges Higher

    Gold prices ticked up as uncertainty surrounding U.S. trade tariffs bolstered safe-haven demand, with investors also monitoring developments in the U.S.-Iran nuclear talks.

    Spot gold rose 0.6% to $5,196.55 per ounce, while U.S. gold futures dipped 0.5% to $5,200.54 per ounce.

    Markets are also evaluating the implications of newly announced U.S. tariffs following a Supreme Court ruling that struck down President Trump’s sweeping reciprocal tariff measures. Attention now turns to upcoming U.S. economic data, including weekly jobless claims. So far this year, gold has remained supported by geopolitical tensions, central bank buying, and portfolio diversification trends.

    Sources: Scott Kano

  • Gold gains on tariff jitters; oil steadies near seven-month highs before United States–Iran talks.

    Gold price

    Gold edged higher in Asian trading on Wednesday, recovering slightly after the prior session’s pullback driven by profit-taking, as markets weighed the effects of newly enacted U.S. tariffs and looked ahead to upcoming U.S.–Iran negotiations later this week.

    Spot gold climbed 0.8% to $5,184.55 per ounce as of 21:08 ET (02:08 GMT), while U.S. gold futures advanced 0.5% to $5,203.10 an ounce. The metal had dropped 1.6% on Tuesday, ending a four-day winning streak.

    On Tuesday, the U.S. began enforcing a temporary 10% blanket import tariff, with the Trump administration aiming to raise it to 15%. The move has heightened concerns about global trade disruptions and inflationary pressures. This action came after a U.S. Supreme Court decision last week invalidated earlier broad tariffs introduced under emergency powers, prompting the government to reinstate duties using alternative legal grounds.

    Investors also monitored geopolitical developments, as Washington and Tehran are scheduled to hold a third round of nuclear discussions in Geneva on Thursday.

    Despite the rebound, gold’s upside remained limited amid expectations that U.S. interest rates will stay higher for longer. Two Federal Reserve officials indicated on Tuesday that there is little urgency to adjust monetary policy, reinforcing a rate outlook that tends to weigh on non-yielding assets like gold.

    Additional pressure came from a firmer U.S. dollar, which makes commodities priced in dollars more expensive for foreign buyers. The U.S. Dollar Index was broadly unchanged after rising 0.1% in the previous session.

    Among other precious metals, silver gained 1.6% to $88.59 per ounce, while platinum surged 2.3% to $2,224.60 an ounce.

    Oil price

    Oil prices stayed close to seven-month peaks on Wednesday, as fears of potential U.S.–Iran military confrontation that could disrupt crude supplies kept investors cautious ahead of fresh talks scheduled for Thursday.

    Brent crude rose 43 cents, or 0.6%, to $71.20 per barrel by 0400 GMT, while WTI gained 38 cents, or 0.6%, to $66.01. Brent touched its highest level since July 31 last week, and WTI reached its strongest point since August 4 earlier this week. Both benchmarks have remained elevated as Washington deployed additional military assets to the Middle East in an effort to pressure Tehran into negotiations over its nuclear and ballistic missile programs.

    A prolonged conflict could threaten exports from Iran—the third-largest producer within Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries—as well as other key producers in the region. Analysts at ING noted that persistent uncertainty is likely to keep a significant geopolitical risk premium embedded in prices, leaving markets highly responsive to new developments.

    U.S. representatives Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner are expected to meet Iranian officials in Geneva on Thursday for a third round of negotiations. Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi said a deal is achievable, provided diplomacy takes precedence. Meanwhile, Donald Trump has warned of “very bad consequences” if no agreement is reached, with uncertainty remaining over whether Iran’s potential concessions would satisfy Washington’s demand for zero uranium enrichment, according to IG analyst Tony Sycamore.

    Heightened tensions have also coincided with reports that Iran and China are advancing discussions over the purchase of Chinese anti-ship cruise missiles, which could pose a threat to U.S. naval forces stationed near Iran’s coastline. Experts say such weapons would significantly bolster Tehran’s strike capabilities.

    Trump is set to address Congress in his State of the Union speech on Tuesday evening, where he is expected to outline his Iran strategy, though specific details have not been disclosed.

    Beyond geopolitics, traders are monitoring supply-demand dynamics. The American Petroleum Institute reportedly showed a sharp 11.43-million-barrel increase in U.S. crude inventories for the week ended February 20, even as gasoline and distillate stocks declined. Official data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration is due later Wednesday.

  • Oil stays near seven-month highs ahead of U.S.–Iran talks, with tariff uncertainty clouding the outlook.

    • Oil prices edged higher during Asian trade on Tuesday, remaining just under the seven-month peaks reached in the prior session, as markets looked ahead to upcoming U.S.–Iran discussions later this week. Ongoing uncertainty surrounding trade tariffs continued to temper investor sentiment.
    • At 22:22 ET (03:22 GMT), Brent crude futures climbed 0.8% to $72.04 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures also advanced 0.8% to $66.81 per barrel.
    • Both benchmarks had approached seven-month highs in the previous session before ending slightly lower.

    Market participants are holding back ahead of US – Iran talks scheduled for later this week.

    Markets stayed tense ahead of a third round of nuclear talks between Washington and Tehran set for Thursday in Geneva. Strains have persisted since last week amid indications that the situation could escalate. The U.S. pulled some non-essential embassy staff from Beirut, underscoring concerns that diplomacy might collapse and spark conflict.

    President Donald Trump warned in a social media post on Monday that it would be a “very bad day” for Iran if no agreement is reached.

    “In the event of a deal, we would likely see a significant unwinding of the risk premium currently built into prices — though securing such an agreement is far from straightforward,” analysts at ING noted.

    A failure in negotiations could heighten worries about stricter sanctions enforcement or potential disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, a crucial corridor for global crude shipments. Fears of a possible military clash contributed to a 6% surge in oil prices last week.

    Tariff tensions under Donald Trump weigh on demand outlook

    Oil markets are also contending with wider macro uncertainty after the Supreme Court of the United States invalidated an earlier round of tariffs introduced under emergency powers.

    Donald Trump has since sought to reinstate duties of up to 15% using alternative legal provisions and cautioned that countries that “play games” in trade negotiations with the U.S. could be hit with steeper tariffs.

    The risk of renewed trade tensions has darkened the global growth and fuel demand outlook, limiting oil’s advance even as geopolitical concerns continue to lend support to prices.

    Sources: Ayushman Ojha

  • Oil declines amid US – Iran nuclear negotiations and uncertainty over Trump tariffs.

    Oil prices fell more than 1% in Asian trading on Monday, taking a breather after last week’s sharp rally, as investors assessed the likelihood of a third round of U.S.-Iran nuclear negotiations and renewed uncertainty around U.S. trade policy.

    By 20:50 ET (01:50 GMT), Brent crude for April delivery dropped 1% to $71.03 a barrel, while WTI crude declined 0.9% to $65.75 a barrel.

    Both benchmarks had climbed nearly 6% last week amid signs of a potential U.S.-Iran confrontation and an unexpected drawdown in U.S. crude inventories, which supported prices.

    Traders watch third round of U.S.- Iran nuclear talks

    Iran and the United States are expected to hold a third round of nuclear discussions on Thursday in Geneva, raising hopes that tensions may ease.

    Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi told CBS’s “Face the Nation” on Sunday that there is a strong possibility of reaching a diplomatic resolution, adding that an agreement is within reach. Markets viewed the remarks as a signal of potential compromise.

    Iran is a major producer within OPEC and possesses some of the largest proven oil reserves globally. The country also borders the Strait of Hormuz, a vital chokepoint that handles about one-fifth of the world’s seaborne oil. Any escalation involving Iran could disrupt shipments and drive up freight and insurance costs.

    Trump raises global tariffs to 15%

    Meanwhile, U.S. President Donald Trump unveiled new global tariffs, initially imposing a 10% duty on imports for 150 days after the U.S. Supreme Court invalidated his previous, broader tariff plan.

    The administration increased the rate to 15% on Saturday—the maximum permitted under the applicable law—adding fresh uncertainty to global trade and demand prospects.

    Higher tariffs can strain supply chains and prompt retaliatory actions from trade partners. Slower trade activity and weaker industrial production typically weigh on fuel consumption.

    Sources: Ayushman Ojha

  • Oil hovers near six-month peak on US-Iran tensions, poised for strong weekly gains.

    Oil prices moved modestly higher in Asian trading on Friday, building on strong gains from the prior two sessions and putting major benchmarks on course for roughly a 6% weekly advance, as rising tensions between the U.S. and Iran heightened concerns about potential supply disruptions in the Middle East.

    By 22:41 ET (03:41 GMT), Brent for April delivery climbed 0.2% to $71.81 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude rose 0.5% to $66.78 a barrel.

    Both contracts were hovering near their highest levels since early August and were set to record weekly gains of more than 6%.

    Oil near six-month high on US-Iran tensions

    Investor anxiety has intensified after U.S. President Donald Trump warned Tehran that “bad things” could follow if a nuclear agreement is not reached within roughly 10–15 days, raising the possibility of military action.

    According to a Wall Street Journal report, Trump is considering a limited strike on Iranian targets to pressure Tehran into accepting a nuclear deal.

    Any escalation involving Iran — a key OPEC producer — could jeopardize shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, a vital passageway that handles about one-fifth of global oil trade, thereby increasing the market’s sensitivity to geopolitical risk.

    This week’s rally also marked a rebound from earlier losses, when prices slipped at the start of the week on hopes that U.S.-Iran negotiations were making progress. The renewed tough rhetoric has since restored a geopolitical risk premium, pushing crude back toward multi-week highs.

    US crude inventories drop sharply – EIA

    Data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration on Thursday showed crude stockpiles fell by around 9 million barrels last week, defying expectations for a 1.7 million-barrel increase.

    The report also indicated declines in gasoline and distillate inventories, both coming in below forecasts, suggesting solid demand from refiners and consumers.

    Markets are now awaiting the release of the U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index later on Friday — the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation.

    Following recent hawkish Fed minutes that signaled policymakers are in no rush to cut interest rates, the PCE data could offer additional insight into the central bank’s policy trajectory.

    Sources: Ayushman Ojha

  • WTI holds above $65.00 amid persistent geopolitical tensions.

    • WTI prices could stage a rebound as supply concerns intensify amid escalating US-Iran tensions and stalled Ukraine-Russia negotiations.
    • Talks between Washington and Tehran have yielded little concrete progress, with Iranian officials only اشاره to a broad framework for a potential nuclear agreement, leaving uncertainty over future crude exports.
    • Meanwhile, peace discussions between Ukraine and Russia held in Geneva concluded without a breakthrough, sustaining geopolitical risks that may continue to underpin oil prices.

    West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude slips slightly on Thursday after plunging 4.9% in the previous session, hovering around $65.00 per barrel during Asian trading. Despite the recent drop, oil prices may find support from potential supply disruptions linked to rising US-Iran tensions and stalled Ukraine-Russia peace efforts.

    Negotiations between Washington and Tehran remain unresolved. Iranian officials have pointed to a “general agreement” on the framework of a possible nuclear deal, but key differences persist. US Vice President JD Vance stated that Iran failed to meet Washington’s red lines, while US President Donald Trump reiterated that military action remains an option. Reports suggest that any potential US strike could develop into a prolonged campaign, with Israel advocating for an outcome aimed at regime change in Iran.

    Meanwhile, peace talks in Geneva between Ukraine and Russia concluded without tangible progress, according to Reuters. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy accused Moscow of stalling US-backed diplomatic efforts to end the four-year conflict. Trump has urged Kyiv to consider a deal that could involve significant concessions, even as Russian forces continue attacking energy infrastructure and making battlefield advances.

    On the trade front, India’s state-run Bharat Petroleum Corporation Limited (BPCL) reportedly made its first-ever purchase of Venezuelan crude, while HPCL Mittal Energy Limited resumed buying cargoes from Venezuela for the first time in two years.

    In US inventory data, the American Petroleum Institute (API) reported a 0.609 million-barrel decline in weekly crude stocks, partially offsetting the previous week’s massive 13.4 million-barrel build — the largest increase since January 2023.

    Sources: Akhtar Faruqui

  • Oil prices remain stable while attention centers on US-Iran geopolitical risks.

    Oil prices moved sideways in Asian trading on Monday, as attention centered on renewed diplomatic engagement between the U.S. and Iran, with investors wary of possible supply disruptions in the Middle East.

    Trading activity remained subdued due to public holidays in China and the U.S., while weak Japanese growth figures added to worries about slowing demand. Brent crude for April delivery slipped 0.2% to $67.65 per barrel by 21:15 ET (02:15 GMT).

    U.S.– Iran nuclear talks to resume

    The U.S. and Iran are set to hold a second round of discussions in Switzerland this week regarding Tehran’s nuclear program, following the restart of negotiations earlier in February. However, diplomatic efforts coincided with Washington deploying a second aircraft carrier to the Middle East and signaling readiness for extended military action should talks collapse.

    President Donald Trump reiterated warnings that Iran must agree to a deal or risk further military measures. Over the weekend, Iranian officials indicated a willingness to make concessions on their nuclear activities in exchange for relief from tough U.S. sanctions, adding that the next move rests with Washington.

    Tensions between the two countries have recently supported oil prices, as traders factored in a higher geopolitical risk premium amid fears of renewed conflict that could disrupt Iranian oil output.

    OPEC+ considering renewed output increases

    At the same time, some of oil’s geopolitical premium was tempered by a Reuters report suggesting that OPEC+ intends to restart production hikes from April. Higher output would enable member countries to capitalize on recent price gains, though increased supply could weigh on prices over the longer term.

    The group is scheduled to meet on March 1.

    Oil markets were pressured throughout 2025 by concerns of excess supply in 2026. Although OPEC+ gradually raised production last year, it paused further increases in December due to persistent oversupply worries.

    Nonetheless, crude prices climbed to a six-month high in early 2026 amid escalating Middle East tensions, while signs of global economic resilience fueled expectations that demand would stay firm.

    Sources: Ambar Warrick

  • Oil prices remain under pressure amid supply glut outlook; U.S. CPI data in focus.

    Oil prices were mostly stable in Asian trading on Friday but remained on course for a weekly loss after plunging nearly 3% in the prior session, as expectations of a substantial supply surplus and rising inventories pressured sentiment. By 21:07 ET (02:07 GMT), Brent crude for April delivery was up 0.1% at $67.56 a barrel, while WTI crude also edged 0.1% higher to $62.87. Both benchmarks had dropped close to 3% previously, leaving them down about 1% for the week.

    IEA projects oil supply surplus and weaker demand growth outlook.

    The International Energy Agency, in its latest monthly report, projected that the global oil market could see a surplus exceeding 3.7 million barrels per day in 2026, pointing to a pronounced supply overhang.

    It also noted that global stockpiles grew last year at one of the fastest paces since the pandemic, reflecting comfortable supply levels. The agency lowered its forecast for global demand growth, citing a softer economic outlook and moderating consumption, even as non-OPEC production stays strong. This combination of weaker demand and resilient output has intensified concerns about prolonged oversupply.

    In the U.S., the Energy Information Administration reported an 8.53 million-barrel increase in crude inventories this week—well above expectations and the largest build since January 2025—indicating sluggish refinery demand and abundant supply.

    U.S.- Iran nuclear talks under scrutiny; U.S. CPI data awaited.

    Meanwhile, investors monitored geopolitical developments after Donald Trump said negotiations over a potential U.S.-Iran nuclear deal could last up to a month.

    The possibility of extended talks eased immediate fears of supply disruptions in the Middle East, reducing the geopolitical premium that had previously supported prices. Attention is also turning to U.S. CPI data due later Friday, which may provide further insight into the Federal Reserve’s rate outlook after strong January employment figures dampened hopes for near-term rate cuts.

    Sources:

  • Brent crude rises as geopolitical tensions support oil prices – Deutsche Bank

    Deutsche Bank analysts highlight that Brent crude has continued to climb as investors respond to escalating geopolitical tensions involving Iran, along with new remarks from President Trump following his meeting with Israel’s Prime Minister.

    According to the bank, speculation over a possible US military strike on Iran, combined with ongoing diplomatic talks, is helping to underpin oil prices, pushing both Brent and WTI higher.

    Iran-related risk premium lifts Brent

    Regarding recent developments, President Trump met Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu at the White House yesterday, stating that he had “urged that negotiations with Iran proceed to determine whether a deal can ultimately be reached.”

    He later wrote on social media that “Previously, Iran chose not to make a deal and faced Midnight Hammer — which did not turn out well for them. Hopefully, this time they act more reasonably and responsibly.”

    By the end of the session, Brent crude had risen 0.87% to $69.40 per barrel, and it gained a further 0.25% this morning to reach $69.57 per barrel.

    Sources: Fxstreet

  • Oil rises on U.S.-Iran tensions, China demand eyed.

    Oil prices advanced in Asian trading on Wednesday as investors monitored developments in U.S.-Iran relations and looked ahead to travel demand during an upcoming major holiday in China.

    Crude rebounded from part of the previous session’s losses, supported by a softer U.S. dollar ahead of key economic data releases.

    By 21:04 ET (02:04 GMT), April Brent futures climbed 0.6% to $69.18 a barrel, while WTI crude futures also gained 0.6% to $64.19 a barrel.

    Oil prices rise amid US-Iran tensions over potential supply disruptions.

    On Tuesday, Iranian officials stated that recent nuclear discussions with the United States helped Tehran assess Washington’s intentions, adding that diplomatic engagement between the two nations would continue.

    The remarks followed talks held last week regarding Iran’s nuclear program, which came after U.S. President Donald Trump sent several warships to the Middle East.

    Although both sides indicated some progress from their weekend negotiations, attention shifted after the U.S. issued a maritime warning for vessels passing through the Strait of Hormuz.

    Media reports also suggested that Trump was weighing the deployment of a second aircraft carrier near Iran—a step that could significantly heighten regional tensions.

    Amid the uncertainty, oil markets incorporated a risk premium, as traders grew concerned that potential military action might disrupt Iranian oil supplies.

    China’s Lunar New Year travel surge draws attention as CPI data falls short of expectations.

    Oil prices found some support on expectations of stronger Chinese fuel consumption during the upcoming Lunar New Year holiday.

    This year’s Lunar New Year, marking the Year of the Horse in the Chinese zodiac, falls on February 17 and will be observed with an extended nine-day public holiday from February 15 to 23.

    The festive period typically drives higher consumer spending in China, particularly in travel. Authorities project a record 9.5 billion passenger journeys during the spring holiday travel rush.

    International travel is set to include several favored destinations across Southeast Asia, though flights to Japan have reportedly declined sharply amid escalating diplomatic tensions between Beijing and Tokyo.

    Meanwhile, recent economic data signaled that deflationary pressures persist in China, as consumer price index figures came in below expectations and producer prices continued to contract.

    Sources: Ambar Warrick

  • Oil prices tick lower as markets watch U.S.–Iran tensions.

    Oil prices edged lower in Asian trade on Tuesday, giving back some of the previous session’s gains as markets focused on U.S.–Iran tensions and awaited key economic data. Crude had jumped more than 1% earlier after reports suggested Washington was taking a more cautious stance toward Iran, offsetting optimism from weekend talks.

    A weaker dollar had supported prices, though the greenback stabilized on Tuesday. Brent futures slipped 0.1% to $68.99 a barrel, while WTI fell 0.2% to $64.06.

    The United States has released a maritime advisory concerning Iran.

    On Monday, the U.S. Maritime Administration warned U.S.-flagged ships to keep as much distance as possible from Iranian waters while transiting the Strait of Hormuz and the Gulf of Oman, advising vessels to remain closer to Oman due to the risk of boarding by Iranian forces.

    The advisory underscored ongoing tensions between Washington and Tehran, despite recent diplomatic talks showing some progress and commitments to further negotiations on Iran’s nuclear program, which remain strained as Iran has largely dismissed calls to halt nuclear enrichment.

    Markets are awaiting upcoming economic data releases from the United States and China.

    This week’s focus is on economic data from the world’s largest oil consumers, which is expected to shape demand expectations. In the U.S., January nonfarm payrolls are due on Wednesday, followed by consumer price index inflation data on Friday, with both releases likely to influence interest-rate outlooks amid an upcoming leadership transition at the Federal Reserve. In China, CPI data is also scheduled for Friday, just ahead of the week-long Lunar New Year holiday, when travel activity and fuel demand are expected to increase.

    Sources: Ambar Warrick

  • Oil prices slip after the U.S. and Iran signal progress in negotiations

    Oil prices slipped in Asian trading on Monday as the United States and Iran indicated they would continue negotiations over Tehran’s nuclear program, easing concerns about heightened tensions in the Middle East.

    Crude prices were also weighed down by a firmer U.S. dollar ahead of a busy week of key U.S. economic data, extending losses after a roughly 2% decline last week. Investors are additionally awaiting major economic releases from China, the world’s largest oil importer.

    Brent crude futures for April dropped 0.7% to $67.57 a barrel by 21:17 ET (02:17 GMT), while West Texas Intermediate futures also fell 0.7% to $63.12 a barrel.

    U.S. and Iran agree to press ahead with nuclear negotiations

    Washington and Tehran said over the weekend that indirect nuclear negotiations will continue following what both sides described as constructive talks in Oman on Friday.

    The statements helped ease fears of an imminent military confrontation in the Middle East, particularly after the United States had earlier deployed several warships to the region.

    Concerns over a potential conflict had previously pushed traders to build a higher risk premium into oil prices, with former President Donald Trump also issuing threats of military action against Iran.

    However, the likelihood of a full-scale war in the region now appears reduced, even as Tehran indicated it will continue advancing its nuclear enrichment activities.

    Markets await key U.S. and China economic data

    Attention this week is also on a slate of major economic data from the world’s largest oil-consuming economies.

    In the United States, January nonfarm payrolls figures are due on Wednesday, followed by CPI inflation data on Friday. These releases will be closely scrutinized for further signals on the interest-rate outlook, as markets continue to assess the direction of monetary policy under Warsh.

    In China, January CPI data is also scheduled for release on Friday, providing fresh insight into conditions in the world’s biggest oil importer.

    The data arrives just ahead of China’s week-long Lunar New Year holiday, which is expected to boost fuel demand across the country.

    Sources: Ambar Warrick

  • WTI Crude Oil Weekly Outlook: Established Range Reasserts Its Pull

    After closing the prior week comfortably above the 65.000 level, WTI Crude Oil began this past Monday with a sharp selloff, dropping to nearly 63.300. From there, price action largely revolved around that area throughout the week, with technical levels guiding the back-and-forth movement.

    Heading into the weekend, WTI is trading near 63.490 and is likely to open with early momentum when markets reopen on Monday. Overall, crude appears to have formed a central pricing zone, reflecting a higher equilibrium that remains reluctant to drift too far from lower levels. Resistance seems to be forming near 65.500, while the 61.000 area is acting as a key support floor—though, of course, there is no guarantee prices will remain confined within this range.

    Short-Term Outlook and Retrospective Analysis

    While some market participants attribute higher WTI crude prices to geopolitical concerns in the Middle East—particularly surrounding Iran and the buildup of U.S. military forces in the region—another factor may be the recent stretch of record cold temperatures across the United States. Notably, WTI crude had been trading with support near the 59.000 level up until January 22.

    The challenge with any of these explanations is the possibility that WTI crude is simply trading higher due to speculative forces, even though broader factors are clearly influencing market sentiment. The combined impact of geopolitical tensions involving Iran and unusually cold weather in the U.S. may be shaping positioning decisions among large market participants. At the same time, WTI has returned to a price range that was already tested back in August 2025, underscoring that this valuation zone is not unfamiliar territory for the commodity.

    Support and Resistance Levels in Focus This Week

    Broader financial markets continue to display signs of unease, with many large traders and institutions positioning defensively and expressing limited confidence in signals coming from other asset classes.

    By contrast, WTI crude oil has continued to grind along within a familiar and well-defined range, potentially creating opportunities for speculative positioning. The opening price action on Monday will be worth watching, especially given that the prior week began with a sharp selloff at the open. A repeat of that move appears less likely this time, as market anxiety seems to have eased somewhat compared with last week. If WTI opens in a more orderly fashion, it could present attractive opportunities to engage around key technical levels.

    WTI Crude Oil Weekly Market Outlook

    If WTI crude oil moves higher at the start of Monday’s session and approaches the 64.000 level, traders may look to target slightly higher price zones. That said, day traders should avoid becoming overly aggressive, as the 64.500 area could present stiff resistance unless upside momentum is firmly maintained. For now, a sharp acceleration to higher levels appears unlikely, with a decisive breakout probably requiring fresh catalysts—such as escalating developments involving Iran—to overcome established resistance.

    Conversely, if WTI opens lower on Monday, the early reaction around the 63.000 support level will be key. A successful hold there would suggest larger participants are comfortable maintaining the current price equilibrium. However, a sustained break below 63.000 lasting several hours could indicate reduced concern among major oil players, potentially opening the door to further downside movement.

    Sources: Robert Petrucci

  • Oil prices were steady, heading for a weekly decline as US-Iran talks remained in focus.

    Oil prices slipped in Asian trading on Friday and were on track for a weekly loss, as markets focused on whether upcoming U.S.–Iran talks could ease Middle East tensions. Investors also priced in a lower risk premium and took profits after last week’s strong gains. Brent futures for April held at $67.58 a barrel, while WTI futures edged up 0.1% to $63.09 by 21:13 ET (02:13 GMT).

    U.S.–Iran negotiations are scheduled to be held in Oman.

    U.S. and Iranian officials are scheduled to hold talks in Oman later on Friday, as military tensions in the Middle East intensify following Washington’s deployment of at least two naval fleets to the region. Investors are optimistic that dialogue between Tehran and Washington could ease tensions and reduce the risk of a wider conflict, prompting traders to strip some geopolitical risk premium from oil prices this week.

    However, differences have emerged over the scope of the discussions, with Iran rejecting U.S. demands to address its missile program and insisting that talks will focus solely on its nuclear ambitions. Iran is a key global oil producer and sits alongside the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for global crude shipments.

    Oil set for weekly decline as profit-taking and a stronger dollar weigh

    Brent and WTI futures were down between 2.5% and 4% for the week, as prices came under pressure from profit-taking after six straight weeks of gains. Crude had earlier been supported by expectations of tighter supply, particularly after extreme weather in the U.S. disrupted output nationwide.

    Supply disruptions in Kazakhstan and concerns over an escalation of conflict in the Middle East also lent support to prices. However, sentiment shifted this week as traders locked in profits, while a broader selloff across commodities—driven by a strengthening U.S. dollar—further weighed on oil markets. The dollar was on track for its strongest weekly performance since October, as investors viewed Kevin Warsh, U.S. President Donald Trump’s nominee for the next Federal Reserve chair, as a less dovish choice.

    Sources: Ambar Warrick

  • Oil prices fell more than 1% as markets focused on ongoing U.S.– Iran talks.

    Oil prices fell in Asian trading on Thursday as traders pared back risk premiums after the U.S. and Iran confirmed talks would take place on Friday.

    Crude was also weighed down by a stronger U.S. dollar, which firmed ahead of key January nonfarm payrolls data due on Friday. Attention was additionally focused on major central bank meetings in Europe and the UK later on Thursday.

    Prices reversed some of Wednesday’s strong gains as investors locked in profits, though oil remained on track for a weekly decline after earlier losses driven by a broader selloff in commodity markets.

    Brent crude futures for April slipped 1.4% to $68.50 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate futures fell 1.3% to $63.80 a barrel by 20:42 ET (01:42 GMT).

    Earlier, oil had found support from data showing U.S. inventories declined more than expected last week, as extreme cold weather disrupted production across the country.

    U.S.– Iran talks are set to be held in Oman on Friday.

    U.S. and Iranian officials are due to meet in Oman on Friday, as confirmed by both sides this week, though disagreements persist over the scope of the talks.

    Washington has repeatedly pushed for the discussions to include Iran’s missile program, while Tehran has said it is only willing to negotiate on its nuclear activities. These differences had earlier raised doubts about whether the meeting would go ahead, a factor that helped lift oil prices earlier in the week.

    Markets have also priced in a higher risk premium for crude amid concerns that U.S. President Donald Trump could follow through on threats to launch new strikes against Iran.

    A stronger dollar weighs on markets as investors await central bank meetings and upcoming payrolls data.

    A firmer dollar added pressure to oil prices, as the greenback attracted strong demand this week.

    Expectations around interest rate decisions from the Bank of England and the European Central Bank on Thursday prompted traders to move into the dollar, while attention also remained on upcoming U.S. nonfarm payrolls data.

    The dollar rebounded sharply from near four-year lows after President Donald Trump nominated Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve chair, a choice seen as less dovish by markets.

    Investors are now focused on January nonfarm payrolls data due on Friday, which is expected to provide clearer signals on the future path of U.S. interest rates.

    Sources: Ambar Warrick

  • Oil prices rise more than 1% amid escalating Iran tensions and expectations of a sharp drop in U.S. inventories.

    Oil prices climbed sharply during Asian trading on Wednesday, driven by reports of escalating tensions between the United States and Iran, which heightened fears of possible supply disruptions in the Middle East.

    Crude prices also found support from industry figures showing an unexpected and substantial drawdown in U.S. oil inventories last week, as severe cold weather across the country curtailed production.

    April Brent futures advanced 1.2% to $68.15 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude rose 1.4% to $63.69 per barrel as of 21:01 ET (02:01 GMT).

    Oil prices climb amid escalating U.S.-Iran tensions ahead of nuclear negotiations

    Overnight reports indicated that U.S. forces shot down an Iranian drone that was approaching a U.S. aircraft carrier in the Arabian Sea.

    In a separate incident, several Iranian gunboats were observed nearing a U.S.-flagged oil tanker in the Strait of Hormuz.

    These developments came just ahead of planned talks between Washington and Tehran later this week. However, Iranian officials have reportedly insisted that the negotiations—scheduled for Friday—be limited to bilateral discussions focused solely on nuclear issues, raising uncertainty over whether the talks will proceed at all.

    U.S. President Donald Trump has warned of further military action if Iran fails to comply with U.S. demands to rein in its nuclear program, while Tehran has vowed strong retaliation against any U.S. aggression.

    Any escalation of military activity in the Middle East could potentially disrupt regional oil supplies, a risk that has helped support crude prices in recent trading sessions.

    U.S. oil inventories fall sharply amid production disruptions, API data shows

    Oil prices also found support from industry figures showing a large and unexpected drawdown in U.S. crude inventories.

    Data from the American Petroleum Institute indicated that U.S. stockpiles fell by 11.1 million barrels in the week ended January 30, sharply contrasting with expectations for a 0.7 million-barrel build.

    API figures often signal a similar outcome in the official inventory report due later in the day.

    The sizeable drawdown was driven by severe cold weather across the United States, which disrupted oil production nationwide and hampered exports from the Gulf Coast.

    Supply disruptions in the U.S. have also contributed to stronger oil prices in recent weeks.

    Sources: Ambar Warrick

  • Oil prices tumble more than 3% on U.S.-Iran talks as OPEC+ keeps output steady.

    Oil prices slid sharply in Asian trading on Monday after reports of talks between the U.S. and Iran reduced some of the geopolitical risk premium in crude, while traders also took profits following recent gains.

    The decline came after the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+) kept output levels unchanged at a weekend meeting, in line with expectations.

    Brent crude futures for April delivery plunged 3.3% to $67.07 a barrel by 20:31 ET (01:31 GMT).

    Oil had climbed to near six-month highs last week amid fears of increased U.S. military action against Iran, while severe cold weather in North America was also seen as a threat to supply. However, prices came under pressure on Monday as traders moved to lock in profits.

    Crude was further weighed down by a rebound in the U.S. dollar from recent four-year lows, after the greenback strengthened following President Donald Trump’s nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve chair.

    Trump says Iran is in “serious talks” with the U.S.

    U.S. President Donald Trump said over the weekend that Iran was engaged in “serious talks” with his administration, raising the prospect of a possible easing of tensions between the two countries.

    His remarks followed statements from Iranian officials indicating that preparations were underway for negotiations with Washington.

    Trump has repeatedly warned of potential military action against Iran amid disputes over its nuclear program and domestic unrest, and has ordered the deployment of U.S. naval forces to the Middle East.

    The move heightened fears of renewed U.S. strikes on Iran, raising the risk of further geopolitical instability in the Middle East and potential disruptions to regional oil supply. Crude prices surged as markets factored in a higher geopolitical risk premium.

    Escalating tensions, alongside recent weather-related disruptions in the United States, helped lift oil prices despite lingering concerns over weak global demand and the possibility of an oversupplied market in 2026.

    More recently, a significant production outage in Kazakhstan has also provided support to oil prices.

    OPEC+ keeps output levels unchanged

    OPEC+ on Sunday kept its oil output for March unchanged, reinforcing its decision to pause further production increases despite a recent rise in crude prices.

    The group has raised output by roughly 2.9 million barrels per day through 2025, but announced an open-ended halt to additional hikes in November, after oil prices fell by around 20% over the past year.

    OPEC+ also offered no forward guidance on production, likely reflecting elevated uncertainty surrounding the global economic outlook and ongoing geopolitical risks.

    Sources: Investing

  • Fed holds steady, earnings mixed, oil in focus

    The S&P 500 ended the session largely unchanged ahead of a largely uneventful Federal Reserve meeting, which offered little new information beyond reaffirming that the U.S. economy remains in fairly solid condition. The tone of Chair Jay Powell’s press conference also suggested that, at least while he remains at the helm, there are likely to be few—if any—interest-rate cuts in the near term.

    Earnings released after the close were mixed. Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT) fell roughly 6.5%, while Meta Platforms (NASDAQ: META) surged about 7.5%. From an options standpoint, both stocks had bearish setups heading into earnings, with elevated implied volatility and heavy call-delta positioning at higher strike levels. Following the results, implied volatility declined, causing higher-strike calls to lose value and prompting the unwinding of hedges.

    For Meta, the key technical level was $700, which the stock managed to break through, at least initially. Revenue guidance significantly exceeded expectations, leading the market to overlook higher-than-expected capital expenditures for now. The key question will be whether Meta can hold above the $700 level once regular trading resumes.

    For Microsoft, the key level was $500, which the stock failed to break despite reporting better-than-expected results. Investor sentiment was weighed down by weaker-than-expected growth in its Azure cloud business.

    For Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA), the setup ahead of earnings was more mixed, but $450 clearly stood out as the key level to break. So far, the stock has tested that threshold but has been unable to hold above it.

    After-hours moves can be unpredictable, which is why it often makes sense to wait and see how price action develops during regular trading hours. How the CDS market trades tomorrow may be even more telling, potentially offering a clearer read on the true implications of the earnings reports.

    For now, near-term rate expectations appear more closely tied to oil than to any other factor. Crude has broken out and moved above its 200-day moving average, a technical development that could set the stage for a rally toward $65 in the near term.

    Whether looking at the 2-year or 10-year Treasury yield, the correlation with oil prices since late 2022 has been remarkably strong. As a result, if oil continues to move higher, it would likely put upward pressure on interest rates as well. In that sense, oil may have been the final missing link in the case for higher rates.

    Sources: Michael Kramer

  • Oil prices gain on U.S. supply disruptions and weaker dollar

    Oil prices climbed in Asian trading on Wednesday, extending the previous session’s gains after severe cold weather disrupted U.S. production, signaling tighter supply conditions.

    Crude was also supported by a weaker dollar, which slid to near a four-year low this week, while markets continued to monitor heightened tensions between the United States and Iran following comments from President Donald Trump that a second armada was heading to the Middle East.

    Brent futures for March edged up 0.1% to $67.66 a barrel, hovering near a four-month high, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures rose 0.2% to $62.53 a barrel by 20:49 ET (01:49 GMT).

    Oil prices jump as U.S. snowstorm disrupts supply

    Oil’s advance this week was largely fueled by a powerful winter storm sweeping across the United States, which disrupted crude output in several producing regions.

    Exports from the U.S. Gulf Coast were also brought to a standstill, as heavy snowfall and sub-zero temperatures blanketed large parts of the country. According to Reuters estimates, roughly 2 million barrels per day of production were affected over the weekend.

    These supply interruptions have prompted traders to brace for sharp drawdowns in U.S. crude inventories in the weeks ahead, signaling tighter supply conditions in the world’s largest oil-consuming market.

    API data points to declining U.S. inventories

    Figures from the American Petroleum Institute released late Tuesday showed an unexpected decline in U.S. crude inventories last week. Stockpiles fell by roughly 250,000 barrels, according to the API, defying expectations for a 1.45 million-barrel build.

    The API report often foreshadows a similar trend in the official inventory data, which is scheduled for release later on Wednesday.

    Oil gains on softer dollar ahead of Fed rate call

    A weaker dollar also lent support to oil prices, as declines in the greenback tend to boost demand for commodities priced in the U.S. currency.

    The dollar index fell to near a four-year low on Tuesday, weighed down by investor concerns over U.S. economic uncertainty, the impending Federal Reserve interest rate decision, and intermittent trade and geopolitical policy moves under President Donald Trump.

    The Fed is broadly expected to keep interest rates unchanged at the end of its meeting later in the day, with markets focused on signals from Chair Jerome Powell regarding the policy outlook for the year ahead.

    Sources: Investing

  • Oil prices slip as markets weigh US-Iran tensions and winter-related supply disruptions.

    Oil prices edged lower in Asian trading on Tuesday as markets focused on rising US-Iran tensions, while also monitoring potential supply disruptions caused by extreme winter weather in the United States.

    Crude had gained in recent sessions on fears that tensions with Iran could disrupt supply, while a severe snowstorm in the US was estimated to have shut in up to 2 million barrels of oil production over the weekend.

    However, expectations of tighter supply were tempered after Kazakhstan signaled it would resume production at the Tengiz oil field, its largest producing asset.

    Brent crude futures for March slipped 0.6% to $65.22 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate futures fell 0.5% to $60.33 a barrel by 21:20 ET (02:20 GMT).

    Iran tensions, US weather disruptions in focus

    A US aircraft carrier and several destroyers were seen arriving in the Middle East over the weekend. President Donald Trump said last week that an “armada” was headed toward Iran, though he expressed hope it would not be used.

    The deployment followed Trump’s warnings to Iran over the killing of protesters during recent nationwide demonstrations, although unrest has eased in recent weeks and his rhetoric toward Tehran has softened.

    Meanwhile, a severe snowstorm in the US caused widespread disruptions, halting oil production and straining the power grid, with markets closely watching whether prolonged outages could further tighten crude supplies.

    Kazakhstan signals plans to resume production at the Tengiz oil field.

    Kazakhstan said on Monday it will resume output at the Tengiz oil field after a fire and power outage halted production. However, Reuters reported that initial volumes are expected to be limited, as the country has yet to lift a force majeure on CPC Blend exports.

    Kazakhstan is the world’s 12th-largest oil producer and a member of OPEC and its allies. The group is expected to keep production levels unchanged at its February 1 meeting, after steadily increasing output through 2025 before announcing a pause late last year to curb prolonged weakness in oil prices.

    Sources: CNBC