Category: economy

  • Top 3 Price Prediction: Bitcoin, Ethereum, Ripple – BTC breakdown signals a deeper pullback as ETH and XRP widen declines

    • Bitcoin falls beneath the lower boundary of its consolidation range on Monday, and a decisive close below this level could open the door to a more pronounced correction.
    • Ethereum drops under $1,900, marking a continuation of its six-week decline.
    • XRP dips below $1.40, unable to hold support at the lower edge of its trendline channel.

    Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH), and Ripple (XRP) continue to weaken on Monday after posting modest losses last week. BTC has slipped beneath the $65,000 consolidation floor, while ETH has fallen under $1,900, both marking a sixth consecutive week of declines. Meanwhile, XRP drops below $1.40, failing to hold support at its lower trendline — collectively signaling the risk of a deeper correction across the top three cryptocurrencies.

    Bitcoin breaks below consolidation support

    Bitcoin had been trading within a sideways range between $65,729 and $71,746 since February 7. On Monday, BTC moved below the lower boundary of this range, changing hands near $64,700.

    A confirmed daily close beneath $65,729 would strengthen the bearish case and could open the path toward the next major support around $60,000.

    On the daily chart, the RSI stands at 31, hovering close to oversold territory and reflecting strong downside momentum. Meanwhile, the MACD lines are tightening, suggesting growing indecision in the market.

    BTC/USDT

    However, if BTC manages to reclaim and hold above the $65,729 level, a rebound toward the upper boundary of the range at $71,746 remains possible.

    Ethereum extends its correction

    Ethereum continued to edge lower last week, prolonging its slide that began in mid-January. As of Monday, ETH is down 4.77%, trading around $1,864.

    A daily close beneath the lower consolidation boundary at $1,747 would reinforce the bearish outlook and could drive prices toward the next key support at $1,669.

    Similar to Bitcoin, Ethereum’s RSI points to strengthening downside momentum, while the MACD lines are narrowing, reflecting growing uncertainty among market participants.

    ETH/USDT

    On the flip side, a recovery from current levels could see ETH rebound toward the upper end of its consolidation range near $2,149.

    XRP deepens its pullback after breaking below key lower trendline support.

    XRP is hovering below $1.40 on Monday after slipping beneath the lower boundary of a falling wedge pattern.

    Should the pullback persist, the token may slide further toward the weekly support around $1.30.

    Similar to Bitcoin and Ethereum, XRP’s RSI points to building bearish pressure, while the MACD lines are tightening, signaling trader uncertainty.

    XRP/USDT

    On the other hand, if price manages to reclaim and hold the lower trendline as support, a rebound toward the psychological $1.50 level could follow.

    Sources: Manish Chhetri 

  • Gold rises to a new monthly peak amid trade war concerns, geopolitical tensions, and a softer U.S. dollar.

    • Gold extended its rally for a fourth consecutive session, supported by a mix of favorable drivers.
    • Ongoing trade uncertainties and escalating geopolitical tensions continued to bolster demand for the safe-haven metal.
    • Expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts, along with a broadly softer U.S. dollar, offered further support to the non-yielding asset.

    Gold (XAU/USD) posted its strongest-ever weekly close above the $5,100 level on Friday and carried that momentum into the new week. The metal has now advanced for a fourth consecutive session, climbing past $5,150 during the Asian session to reach a fresh monthly high. Persistent trade-war concerns and escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East continue to channel safe-haven flows into bullion.

    U.S. President Donald Trump introduced a new trade framework after a Supreme Court ruling blocked his earlier sweeping tariff plan, announcing a 15% global tariff on imports—the maximum permitted under the law. The move heightened fears of retaliatory action and broader economic fallout from supply chain disruptions, dampening risk appetite and reinforcing demand for gold as a defensive asset.

    On the data front, Friday’s release showed the U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index rose 2.9% year-over-year in December, while the core measure increased 3.0%, tempering expectations of a March rate cut by the Federal Reserve. Even so, markets continue to anticipate the possibility of two 25-basis-point reductions later this year.

    Those expectations were supported by weaker U.S. growth figures, with GDP expanding at a 1.4% annualized pace in the fourth quarter—slowing sharply from 4.4% in Q3—amid the longest government shutdown on record. Combined with trade-related uncertainty, the softer growth backdrop has pulled the U.S. dollar back from last week’s highs, adding further support to non-yielding gold.

    Additionally, the risk of military confrontation between the U.S. and Iran has contributed to the metal’s upward momentum. Officials from both sides are scheduled to meet in Geneva on Thursday after Iran submitted a detailed nuclear proposal. Reports indicate that President Trump is weighing potential military action if diplomatic efforts fail to restrain Tehran’s nuclear ambitions, further underpinning safe-haven demand.

    XAU/USD H4 chart

    Gold buyers remain in control, with Friday’s surge beyond the $5,100 level still holding firm.

    From a technical standpoint, the solid upside continuation at the beginning of the week confirms last Friday’s breakout above the $5,100 horizontal resistance, reinforcing the bullish outlook for XAU/USD. The MACD remains above both the Signal line and the zero level, while the expanding positive histogram points to building upward momentum.

    In addition, gold is trading comfortably above the ascending 200-period EMA, which underpins the current advance and keeps the near-term bias skewed to the upside. However, the RSI at 73.23 signals overbought conditions, suggesting that immediate gains could be capped.

    As long as prices stay above the rising 200-period EMA at $4,864.04, the broader bias remains constructive, with dips likely to be limited. The MACD continues to support the bullish case, though a narrowing histogram would indicate fading momentum. With the RSI stretched into overbought territory, a period of consolidation or mild pullback may emerge before the uptrend resumes. Still, holding above the 200-period EMA would preserve the overall recovery structure, even if short-term consolidation unfolds.

    Sources: Haresh Menghani

  • Oil declines amid US – Iran nuclear negotiations and uncertainty over Trump tariffs.

    Oil prices fell more than 1% in Asian trading on Monday, taking a breather after last week’s sharp rally, as investors assessed the likelihood of a third round of U.S.-Iran nuclear negotiations and renewed uncertainty around U.S. trade policy.

    By 20:50 ET (01:50 GMT), Brent crude for April delivery dropped 1% to $71.03 a barrel, while WTI crude declined 0.9% to $65.75 a barrel.

    Both benchmarks had climbed nearly 6% last week amid signs of a potential U.S.-Iran confrontation and an unexpected drawdown in U.S. crude inventories, which supported prices.

    Traders watch third round of U.S.- Iran nuclear talks

    Iran and the United States are expected to hold a third round of nuclear discussions on Thursday in Geneva, raising hopes that tensions may ease.

    Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi told CBS’s “Face the Nation” on Sunday that there is a strong possibility of reaching a diplomatic resolution, adding that an agreement is within reach. Markets viewed the remarks as a signal of potential compromise.

    Iran is a major producer within OPEC and possesses some of the largest proven oil reserves globally. The country also borders the Strait of Hormuz, a vital chokepoint that handles about one-fifth of the world’s seaborne oil. Any escalation involving Iran could disrupt shipments and drive up freight and insurance costs.

    Trump raises global tariffs to 15%

    Meanwhile, U.S. President Donald Trump unveiled new global tariffs, initially imposing a 10% duty on imports for 150 days after the U.S. Supreme Court invalidated his previous, broader tariff plan.

    The administration increased the rate to 15% on Saturday—the maximum permitted under the applicable law—adding fresh uncertainty to global trade and demand prospects.

    Higher tariffs can strain supply chains and prompt retaliatory actions from trade partners. Slower trade activity and weaker industrial production typically weigh on fuel consumption.

    Sources: Ayushman Ojha

  • Gold prices continue to rise amid renewed concerns over Trump’s tariff policies.

    Gold extended its rally for a fourth consecutive session on Monday, building on last week’s advance as new global tariff measures from U.S. President Donald Trump and softer U.S. economic data boosted demand for safe-haven assets.

    Spot gold climbed 0.8% to $5,143.55 an ounce by 19:53 ET (00:53 GMT), while U.S. gold futures jumped 1.7% to $5,165.86.

    Bullion gained more than 1% last week as escalating geopolitical tensions between the U.S. and Iran encouraged a risk-off tone across markets.

    Late last week, Trump announced a 10% tariff on global imports for 150 days under Section 122 of U.S. trade law, following a decision by the Supreme Court of the United States to strike down a broader tariff framework. The administration subsequently increased the levy to 15%—the maximum permitted under the statute—heightening fears of retaliatory actions and disruptions to global supply chains.

    The tariff move dampened investor sentiment, driving flows into traditional safe havens such as gold and U.S. Treasuries. Ongoing uncertainty about how long the tariffs will remain in place, along with potential legal and congressional challenges, added to market volatility.

    Gold also found support in recent U.S. data. The economy expanded at an annualized 1.4% pace in the fourth quarter, a notable slowdown from the prior quarter. Meanwhile, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index—the inflation measure favored by the Federal Reserve—rose 2.9% year-on-year in December, with core inflation near 3.0%, still above the central bank’s 2% target.

    The mix of moderating growth and persistently elevated inflation strengthened gold’s role as both a hedge against economic uncertainty and a store of value.

    Sources: Ayushman Ojha

  • Markets in Focus – USD/MXN, S&P 500, EUR/USD, USD/CAD, Gold, Bitcoin, USD/JPY, GBP/USD

    USD/MXN

    The US dollar at one stage surged sharply against the Mexican peso, but by week’s end it had given back some of those gains. The 17.00 area below continues to act as a key support zone, and a decisive break beneath it could open the door for a move toward 16.50.

    While short-term bounces are possible, the broader setup suggests selling into strength. The 17.50 region remains a significant resistance barrier, and the wide interest rate differential still strongly favors the Mexican peso.

    S&P 500

    The S&P 500 pulled back early in the week but appears to be stabilizing as it continues to trade within a broader consolidation range. Since early December, price action has been confined between 6,800 and 7,000, suggesting a market building momentum for its next major move.

    The bias still leans to the upside. A decisive daily close above 7,000 could trigger a stronger breakout and accelerate gains. On the other hand, a breakdown below 6,800 would signal a shift in tone and mark a more bearish development.

    EUR/USD

    The euro declined notably over the course of the week, but it continues to find buyers near the 1.18 level, making that area especially important to watch. Given the current structure, caution is warranted when trading this pair.

    Price action appears largely range-bound, with 1.18 acting as a central pivot or magnet. Resistance stands near 1.1850, while solid support can be found around 1.1750, reinforcing the broader sideways pattern.

    USD/CAD

    The US dollar has advanced against the Canadian dollar, but price action remains choppy around the 1.3750 zone — an area that has repeatedly proven significant. The pair appears to be oscillating as traders assess whether momentum can build for a sustained move higher.

    A decisive push and hold above 1.3750 would signal renewed strength for the US dollar. Conversely, a breakdown below 1.35 would represent a notably bearish shift in sentiment.

    Major Technical Support and Resistance Levels

    Gold (XAU/USD)

    Gold remains choppy, initially easing back during the week, yet buyers continue to emerge on dips, stepping in whenever prices soften. The 4,800 level appears to be firm support, while the 5,000 mark is likely to act as a psychological magnet for price action.

    The broader bias still favors buying pullbacks, with the expectation of an eventual move higher. However, volatility may persist after the sharp turbulence seen in recent weeks, following what had previously been a near one-way surge. Over the longer term, a retest of the highs seems plausible, though it will likely require patience amid ongoing fluctuations.

    Bitcoin (BTC)

    The Bitcoin market is still searching for renewed upside momentum, but the encouraging development is that price action has at least stabilized. Given the prolonged weakness seen in recent periods, simple stability is a constructive step forward for the market.

    The $60,000 level remains a crucial support zone and a major psychological benchmark. Holding above this area is essential if Bitcoin is to maintain any realistic prospect of a sustained recovery.

    USD/JPY

    The US dollar posted solid gains against the Japanese yen over the week, with the ¥152 level continuing to provide strong support. The 50-week EMA is positioned just beneath that area, reinforcing the floor and encouraging dip-buying as the interest rate differential remains in favor of the US dollar.

    With the Bank of Japan maintaining its current policy stance, there appears to be little immediate catalyst for a structural shift. As a result, the pair may be entering a consolidation range between ¥152 on the downside and ¥158 on the upside. A decisive move above ¥160 would represent a significant breakout, clearing a resistance zone that has been in place since 1990.

    GBP/USD

    The British pound declined sharply during the week, dropping to test the 1.35 level — a large, round psychological threshold that has proven important on multiple occasions. The fact that buyers are attempting to defend this area is at least a constructive short-term signal.

    However, recent UK economic data has been somewhat underwhelming. As a result, sterling may currently be one of the weaker major currencies against the US dollar. This pair deserves close monitoring, as broader dollar strength could translate into pronounced downside pressure here, potentially making GBP/USD particularly vulnerable.

    Sources: Lewis

  • Digital assets remain stable as markets weigh inflation expectations and geopolitical tensions, according to Nexo.

    Cryptocurrency markets moved within a tight range late in the week as traders remained cautious ahead of important U.S. inflation and growth releases. According to Nexo analyst Iliya Kalchev, broader macro uncertainty continues to guide investor sentiment.

    Bitcoin held just above the $68,000 mark, while Ethereum struggled to push past $2,000, signaling selective positioning rather than a broad return to risk appetite. A more guarded macro tone has emerged in recent days, with hawkish cues from the Federal Reserve’s January meeting minutes pressuring risk assets and strengthening the view that interest rate cuts may come later than previously anticipated.

    Geopolitical concerns have further shaped market behavior. Heightened tensions involving the U.S. and Iran have driven demand for traditional safe havens such as the U.S. dollar and gold, while capping gains in liquidity-driven assets like cryptocurrencies.

    Kalchev highlighted that U.S.-listed Bitcoin ETFs posted around $165 million in net outflows, and Ethereum ETFs saw roughly $130 million withdrawn. These flows reflect a broader sense of institutional caution as investors recalibrate exposure amid persistent macro volatility.

    Bitcoin remains in a consolidation phase following its early-February pullback, even as underlying network metrics improve. Mining difficulty has risen notably, and hashrate levels have recovered, pointing to structural strength despite muted price action. Still, analysts note that the asset remains highly responsive to macro signals—particularly inflation data that could influence Federal Reserve policy expectations.

    Outside of crypto, financial markets have displayed uneven risk appetite. Gold is trading near record highs, and the dollar is on course for a strong weekly advance as investors hedge against geopolitical instability and interest rate uncertainty.

    Looking ahead, market participants are closely watching upcoming U.S. Core PCE inflation data and GDP figures. These releases could determine whether digital assets break out of their current consolidation range or continue moving sideways. While regulatory progress on stablecoin legislation may serve as a longer-term structural driver, Kalchev emphasized that near-term price movements will likely remain tied to macro developments and investor positioning.

    Sources: Investing

  • Three crucial earnings releases this week that could sustain the AI rally.

    The artificial intelligence trade faces its biggest test of the year this week as three cornerstone companies in the AI infrastructure ecosystem prepare to deliver quarterly earnings. With tech stocks showing signs of fatigue, investors want more than simple earnings beats. They’re looking for proof that heavy capital expenditure is translating into the successful deployment of next-generation hardware. All attention will turn to the after-market close (AMC) on Wednesday and Thursday to see whether the AI rally still has momentum.

    NVIDIA: The undisputed AI infrastructure leader

    NVIDIA (NVDA) is set to report fiscal Q4 2026 results on Wednesday, Feb. 25, after market close. As the dominant supplier of GPUs powering large language models, NVIDIA remains the clearest gauge of the AI trade’s health. Wall Street is anticipating a “beat and raise,” with consensus revenue estimates around $65.6 billion — an impressive 67% year-over-year increase.

    Investors are especially focused on the production ramp of its Blackwell architecture chips. Any updates on supply chain constraints or the development timeline for the upcoming Rubin platform could influence not only tech stocks but the broader S&P 500. Options markets imply a potential 6.5% swing in either direction, making NVIDIA’s earnings the week’s must-watch event for global investors.

    Hardware and cloud players: CoreWeave and Dell under the spotlight

    On Thursday, Feb. 26, AMC, attention shifts to the physical backbone of AI infrastructure. CoreWeave (CRWV), a specialized cloud provider and key NVIDIA partner, will report against high expectations driven by its sizable revenue backlog. Analysts project Q4 revenue of roughly $1.53 billion, but the more significant figure is its $56 billion backlog — a forward-looking signal of how much computing capacity AI firms and tech giants are securing

    Also reporting Thursday is Dell Technologies (DELL), which has repositioned itself as a major supplier of AI-optimized servers. Consensus forecasts call for earnings of $3.53 per share on $31.6 billion in revenue. Dell recently earned a spot on Evercore’s “Tactical Outperform” list, supported by a sharp rise in AI server orders and an $18.4 billion backlog exiting last quarter. The key question for Dell will be whether it can preserve margins while rapidly scaling production to meet surging demand for AI infrastructure.

    Sources: Investing

  • Australia signals possible retaliation as Trump’s worldwide tariffs rise to 15%.

    The Australian government has pledged to “consider every possible response” after President Donald Trump raised the standard import tariff to 15%. The abrupt increase came just a day after an initial 10% rate was announced, surprising global markets.

    Trade Minister Don Farrell described the decision as “unjustified” and suggested it could strain relations between the long-standing strategic partners. The move follows a U.S. Supreme Court ruling that invalidated the administration’s earlier targeted tariff system as unlawful.

    In reaction, the President shifted to a universal global tariff. The first 10% duty is scheduled to take effect at 12:01 a.m. EST on February 24, but the implementation date for the additional 5% remains uncertain, leaving exporters with goods already in transit facing heightened uncertainty.

    Economic repercussions and Australia’s reaction

    For Australia, the implications are significant. As a leading exporter of iron ore, LNG, and agricultural commodities, a 15% tariff could erode the competitiveness of Australian products in the U.S. market. Trade Minister Don Farrell confirmed that officials are coordinating closely with Australia’s embassy in Washington to evaluate the potential impact.

    Analysts note that keeping “all options on the table” may involve filing a formal complaint with the World Trade Organization (WTO) or imposing reciprocal, tit-for-tat duties on American imports. Such action would represent an unusual trade clash between AUKUS allies.

    The across-the-board 15% tariff reflects a broad, uniform policy that overlooks customary bilateral arrangements. Should Canberra proceed with countermeasures, it could affect multi-billion-dollar energy and defense agreements that are currently being negotiated.

    Market turbulence and the investor outlook

    Investors are already responding to the uncertainty. The Australian Dollar (AUD) came under immediate pressure as traders assessed the potential blow to the nation’s trade balance, while mining and energy shares adopted a more cautious tone.

    Should the full 15% tariff be implemented without carve-outs, Australian exporters may have to accelerate their shift toward Asian markets, potentially deepening the divide between Western trading partners.

    Attention is now fixed on the February 24 deadline. If the White House does not clarify whether allies will receive exemptions, the risk of a formal trade conflict increases. Analysts caution that much of the added cost could ultimately be passed on to American consumers, heightening concerns about renewed inflation.

    Sources: Investing

  • Money: The 10 Immutable Laws of Building Wealth

    Money — everyone wants it, yet relatively few build lasting wealth. Recent data show the U.S. wealth gap continuing to widen, with the top 10% of earners controlling roughly two-thirds of total assets, while the bottom half owns only a small fraction. The frustration this creates fuels many narratives — corporatism, financial nihilism, inflation, stagnant wages, student debt, policy failures. These factors matter.

    But they are not the root cause of individual financial outcomes.

    At the personal level, wealth creation has always rested on a small set of enduring principles:

    • Spend less than you earn.
    • Save consistently.
    • Invest intelligently.

    These rules are not new. They worked before the internet, before credit cards, and before retail trading apps. Most importantly, they still work — regardless of background, education, age, or economic cycle. Wealth is not a viral trend or a lucky break. It is a disciplined process repeated over time.

    That does not dismiss today’s challenges. Inflation remains elevated compared to early-2000s norms. Real wage growth has struggled to outpace living costs. Mortgage rates have constrained affordability. Yet history shows that disciplined financial behavior, applied consistently, can overcome difficult macro environments.

    Many people can articulate why the system feels unfair. Fewer commit to the habits that compound into independence. The difference between chronic financial stress and gradual wealth accumulation is often not luck or privilege alone — it is adherence to a workable framework.

    This framework is neither radical nor controversial. It is the same path generations have followed to build stability and prosperity.

    One uncomfortable truth is that we have largely failed to teach foundational money skills. Not advanced portfolio theory — but basics: budgeting, understanding credit, living below one’s means, and managing cash flow responsibly.

    With that foundation in mind, here are the 10 Immutable Laws of Money.

    10 Fundamental Principles of Money

    Wealth Isn’t Created Effortlessly

    Growing up, my father loved to share stories that, over time, I realized were slightly exaggerated. A few of his classics were:

    “When I was your age, I walked uphill to school in the snow — both ways.”
    “I could see two movies, eat all the popcorn and drink all the soda I wanted for a nickel — and still get change back!”
    And, of course: “Where do you think money comes from? It doesn’t grow on trees!”

    That last line stuck with me the most. What he was really trying to teach was respect — respect for the time, energy, and sacrifice required to earn a living. He often worked two jobs, sometimes even three, to provide for our family. We always had what we needed, though not always everything we wanted. As a child, I didn’t fully grasp the weight of that lesson. It wasn’t until I had a family of my own that I truly understood.

    Most people work incredibly hard for their income. Yet it’s surprising how casually many treat the money they earn. They undermine their own efforts by overspending, living beyond their means, or making careless investment choices. If you value the work it takes to earn money, you should value how it’s managed.

    One practical way to build that respect is by using the “envelope system” for a few months.

    The idea is simple: cash your paycheck and divide the money into separate envelopes labeled for expenses — rent or mortgage, car payments, groceries, utilities, entertainment, and so on. Then live normally. When an envelope runs out, that category is done for the month. No borrowing from another envelope.

    This method quickly reveals where money is leaking away and forces awareness around spending habits. More importantly, it restores discipline and respect for the effort behind every dollar earned.

    Note: The envelope system should cover about 80% of your overall budgeting approach, which we’ll explore shortly. The remaining 20% should be directed toward savings — but we’ll tackle that part step by step.

    Desires Always Outpace Necessities

    When I sit down with people to talk about financial planning, I’m always struck by the reaction the word “budget” triggers. The moment it’s mentioned, you’d think I had suggested something drastic — like giving up a limb.

    But the reality is simple: financial success requires one fundamental rule — spend less than you earn.

    I constantly hear people justify breaking this rule:
    “You don’t understand — I needed a new car.”
    “We needed a bigger house.”
    “We have to take our annual vacation.”

    The line between a “want” and a “need” can occasionally blur, but most of the time they are worlds apart. Did you truly need a brand-new car — or could a reliable two-year-old model have saved you 20% in depreciation? Did you genuinely require more space, or could you have managed in your current home?

    These are uncomfortable but necessary questions.

    If your goal is to build wealth, your true needs are very limited:

    • Food
    • Shelter
    • Utilities
    • Taxes

    That’s it. Everything else is a want.

    Learning to control your wants is one of the most powerful steps toward financial stability. Before making a purchase, pause and ask yourself: Is this a need — or just a desire?

    Here’s a practical guideline:

    Your life should cost no more than 70–80% of your income.

    When creating a budget, review your spending patterns and aim to keep your committed expenses at or below 70–80% of your gross income. That means 20–30% remains uncommitted — and that margin is where financial freedom begins.

    This percentage isn’t a rigid law, but it’s a realistic and effective starting point. Once you structure your finances this way, constant expense tracking becomes less necessary. Your account balance itself becomes your guide. The real discipline lies in keeping those fixed obligations under control — and refusing to let wants quietly turn into “needs.”

    What About the Remaining 20–30%?

    That portion is what you “pay yourself first.”

    Let’s break it down with a simple example.

    Joe earns $100,000 per year and falls into a 25% tax bracket. If his goal is to save 30% of his income, he needs to set aside $22,500 annually.

    Here’s how he does it:

    • $20,000 goes directly into his employer-sponsored retirement plan on a pre-tax basis.
    • He then contributes an additional $2,500 each year into a Roth IRA.

    Just like that, Joe has hit his savings target.

    After taxes and retirement contributions, the paycheck that lands in Joe’s bank account represents roughly 70% of his gross income. And here’s the beauty of the system: Joe is free to spend what’s in that account. He doesn’t have to think about saving — it’s already been handled.

    Because the money moves into savings before he ever sees it, he adapts to living on the remaining amount. He never feels deprived because he never mentally counted that savings money as spendable income in the first place.

    That’s the real secret to a budget that actually works.

    Tracking every dollar you spend isn’t the magic solution — just like obsessively counting calories isn’t the true key to weight loss. The real power lies in building a financial structure that automatically balances income and spending, prioritizes saving, and leaves enough flexibility to absorb life’s inevitable surprises.

    When the system is designed correctly, discipline becomes automatic — and wealth becomes a byproduct of structure, not willpower.

    The Poor Owe — The Wealthy Own

    This principle is straightforward: you cannot borrow your way to wealth — period.

    There’s no late-night seminar teaching people how to become rich by shuffling balances between low-interest credit cards. Debt is not a wealth-building tool for consumers — it’s a wealth transfer mechanism, usually in the wrong direction.

    For many people, high monthly credit card payments are the very reason their expenses feel suffocating. If you’re carrying significant non-mortgage debt, consider redirecting the 20% earmarked for long-term savings toward aggressively paying it down — but only after you eliminate access to more borrowing.

    Every dollar of interest you don’t pay is equivalent to earning a guaranteed, risk-free, tax-free return equal to the interest rate on that debt. Few investments offer that kind of certainty.

    And once the debt is gone — which can happen faster than you think if you apply 20% of your gross income toward it — immediately redirect that same money back into savings.

    Signs You’re Damaging Your Financial Future

    You may be off track if you:

    • See credit card balances rising while income is shrinking.
    • Pay only minimums — or less.
    • Shift balances or take cash advances to cover other cards.
    • Carry more credit cards than you can track.
    • Stay near your credit limits.
    • Charge more monthly than you repay.
    • Work overtime just to keep up with payments.
    • Avoid calculating your total debt.
    • Receive delinquency notices.
    • Use credit cards for essentials like food or gas.
    • Rely on credit because you lack cash.
    • Dip into savings or retirement accounts to cover bills.
    • Hide purchases from your spouse.
    • Open every unsolicited card offer.
    • Fear job loss because your debt load feels unmanageable.

    The first step toward wealth is eliminating dependence on credit cards — for any reason. That may sound extreme, but you can’t break a habit while continuing the behavior. There’s no middle ground.

    The Credit Card Roll-Up Strategy

    If you’re serious about becoming debt-free, this structured approach works:

    1. Cut up all your credit cards. Every single one.
    2. List balances from largest to smallest, along with minimum payments.
    3. Pay minimums on all cards — but pay five times the minimum on the smallest balance.
    4. Repeat monthly. Ignore interest rates for now; the goal is quick psychological wins.
    5. Once the smallest card is paid off, roll that full payment (including its former minimum) onto the next smallest balance.
    6. Continue rolling payments upward until you attack the largest balance with significant monthly firepower.

    Momentum builds quickly. What starts small becomes powerful.

    When you eliminate your final credit card balance, reward yourself modestly — perhaps with two months’ worth of what used to be your debt payments.

    Then immediately return to discipline.

    Every dollar that once serviced debt now goes into savings and investment. You’ll have ground to make up — but you’ll also have the structure and momentum to build real wealth.

    Debt keeps you working for your past.
    Savings and investment put your money to work for your future.

    You Are Not Immune to Moral or Physical Risk

    I remember watching Fear Factor hosted by Joe Rogan and realizing something simple: people will do almost anything for fast, easy money.

    “Sure, I’ll eat those South American hissing cockroaches for $50,000.”

    Yet many of those same people won’t consistently skip luxuries, reduce spending, or sacrifice short-term comfort to save $50,000 the slow and responsible way.

    We’ve been conditioned to look for shortcuts. Instead of discipline, we gamble. The lottery — essentially a tax on poor financial judgment — becomes the dream strategy. Yet roughly 80% of lottery winners end up broke within a decade because sudden money cannot compensate for weak financial habits.

    If I borrowed a page from David Letterman, I’d create a segment called “Financially Stupid Human Tricks” — highlighting the so-called “smart” financial moves that often create long-term damage.

    Borrowing From Your 401(k)

    Many employer-sponsored retirement plans allow loans. It feels harmless. After all, you’re “paying interest to yourself,” right?

    Technically true.

    But here’s what gets overlooked:

    • If you lose your job, the loan usually must be repaid within about 60 days.
    • If you can’t repay it, the balance is treated as a distribution — taxed and penalized.
    • Depending on your bracket, penalties and taxes can reach 40% or more.

    And it gets worse: you can’t restore the lost compounding.

    If you borrowed $7,000 and that money could have compounded at 8% annually, over time that single decision could cost tens of thousands — even $75,000 or more — in retirement value.

    Your retirement account and your home equity should be financial “break glass only in absolute emergency” assets. If everything else in life goes wrong, those two pillars protect your shelter and your dignity.

    Stretching to Buy a House

    Homebuyers face enormous pressure.

    Real estate agents earn more when you spend more. It’s no accident that you’re often shown a home slightly beyond your range first. Once you’ve walked through the upgraded kitchen and spa bathroom, the affordable house feels like a compromise.

    Friends and family may encourage the stretch:
    “It’s an investment.”
    “You’ll earn more later.”
    “Real estate always goes up.”

    Maybe. Maybe not.

    Being “house poor” is real. When too much of your income goes toward housing, everything else suffers — vacations disappear, dining out shrinks, retirement contributions stall, college savings fade. Instead of cutting lifestyle, many simply layer on more debt to preserve appearances.

    A house should support your life — not dominate it.

    The common thread in all of this is risk blindness. People assume bad outcomes won’t apply to them. They believe they’ll keep the job, the market will cooperate, income will rise, and nothing unexpected will happen.

    But wealth isn’t built on optimistic assumptions.
    It’s built on margin, discipline, and respect for risk.

    Quick money excites.
    Structured money endures.

    The Most Valuable Things in Life Don’t Cost Money

    Too often, we confuse “quality time” with “costly activity.” We assume that spending meaningful time with family or loved ones requires tickets, reservations, travel, and swiping a credit card.

    But isn’t the real goal connection?

    You don’t need a weekend getaway to build memories. You need presence.

    Learn to be creative:

    • Board games at home
    • Playing sports in the yard
    • A walk in the park with music or an audiobook
    • Movie nights with homemade popcorn
    • Sitting around talking, gaming, or reading together

    The activity matters far less than the interaction. Some of the best moments in life cost absolutely nothing.

    Laugh at the Joneses (Just a Little)

    Petty? Maybe.
    Effective? Absolutely.

    Trying to “keep up with the Joneses” is one of the fastest paths to financial stress. The irony is that the Joneses often aren’t thriving — they’re financing appearances.

    As of mid-2025, the average American household carried over $100,000 in consumer debt, including mortgages, credit cards, auto loans, personal loans, and student debt. Since that’s an average, half of households owe even more. Meanwhile, non-mortgage consumer debt has climbed to historic highs, while income growth hasn’t kept pace.

    In other words, the lifestyle you envy may be leveraged.

    Recognizing that reality makes it much easier to stop competing. Financial peace rarely comes from outward display — it comes from internal margin.

    The best things in life — laughter, conversation, friendship, time, health — cannot be financed. And the more you understand that, the less tempted you’ll be to borrow in order to simulate happiness.

    Wealth isn’t about looking rich.
    It’s about being free.

    If a little harmless comparison keeps you disciplined, use it.

    Watching your neighbor finance every new car, remodel, and vacation can actually reinforce your own commitment to smart money management. Quietly appreciating that your lower debt load earned you a better mortgage rate — or that you sleep better at night — can be motivating.

    Is it a bit petty? Sure.
    Is it effective? Often.

    This isn’t really a “law of money” as much as a psychological trick. Humans are wired for comparison. If observing someone else’s overextension strengthens your resolve to stay disciplined, that’s not the worst thing — just keep it internal. You still want the dinner invitations.

    At the end of the day, frugality isn’t about deprivation. It’s about peace of mind.

    You’re choosing restraint today to gain freedom tomorrow.

    Whether you’re eliminating debt, increasing savings, or simply refusing to live beyond your means, the real goal is avoiding the anxiety and stress that come from financial chaos. That clarity — knowing you’re in control — is what sustains long-term discipline.

    When you remember that financial stability equals emotional stability, it becomes much easier to avoid burnout, stay consistent, and reach your goals faster.

    Wealth is not about impressing others.
    It’s about sleeping well at night.

    Money Cannot Purchase Happiness

    That familiar cliché is often dismissed as something people say to justify not pursuing financial success. And while it’s technically true that money cannot directly purchase happiness, it can certainly acquire many of the things that make happiness easier to experience.

    Money doesn’t guarantee joy.
    But neither do debt, stress, anxiety, or 20% credit card interest.

    Financial security won’t fix every challenge in life. It won’t repair broken relationships or create purpose. But it does eliminate many of the pressures that drain your mental energy — surprise expenses, medical bills, job uncertainty, emergencies.

    A strong financial foundation buys breathing room.

    And breathing room reduces stress. Reduced stress improves relationships, decision-making, and overall well-being.

    A healthy bank balance is far more valuable than another gadget, another upgrade, or the newest phone release. Financial stability may not buy happiness — but it buys freedom, options, and peace of mind.

    And those are often much closer to happiness than most purchases ever will be.

    There’s No Such Thing as “Five Easy Payments”

    Don’t fall for flashy financing tricks. People often justify using a certain credit card or payment plan because it advertises 0% interest — but that’s beside the point. A good rule of thumb: if you can’t pay for it in cash right now, you probably shouldn’t buy it. Chances are, it’s a “want,” not a necessity.

    Debt is still debt, no matter how attractive it looks. In the end, it’s the fine print that catches you off guard and pulls you further away from your financial goals.

    Cash in your pocket beats being stretched too thin.

    About half of marriages in the U.S. end in divorce, with two leading causes often cited: infidelity and money problems. Financial pressure can strain relationships, and many of our spending choices are driven more by emotion than logic. If you want to eliminate debt and the stress that comes with it, here are seven hard truths to help you regain control and build real financial cushion:

    1) Cut Housing Costs.
    Do you really need the pool or those extra bedrooms filled with clutter? Many people buy more house than they actually use. Downsizing and lowering your mortgage payment can free up significant monthly cash flow.

    2) Reduce Car Expenses.
    Consider going from two cars to one, carpooling, or using alternative transportation. Even trading in for a reliable two- or three-year-old vehicle could shrink your monthly payment, insurance, fuel, and maintenance costs.

    3) Take on Extra Income (Temporarily).
    A part-time job bringing in an additional $1,000 per month adds up to $12,000 a year toward debt repayment. It doesn’t have to be permanent — just long enough to reset your finances.

    4) Eliminate Costly Habits.
    Smoking, frequent dining out, and impulse spending drain money quickly. Cooking at home and cutting unnecessary indulgences may not feel convenient, but it’s both financially smart and often healthier.

    5) Live Below Your Means.
    Adjusting priorities, expectations, and even location can help you scale your lifestyle to something sustainable.

    6) Reconsider Private School.
    Private education can cost around $15,000 per year, while you’re already funding public schools through taxes. Supplementing public education with involvement at home can strengthen both your child’s learning and your relationship — at little to no financial cost.

    Getting out of debt requires tough choices, but each decision moves you closer to financial freedom and peace of mind.

    7) Turn Clutter into Cash.
    Garage sales, eBay, and countless online marketplaces make it easier than ever to unload the stuff you’ve accumulated over the years. What’s collecting dust in your home could translate into extra money to put toward paying down debt.

    You might resist some of these ideas at first — and they are only suggestions. But once you begin applying even a few of these principles, you’ll likely uncover additional ways to live within your means and take meaningful steps toward a less stressful, more financially secure life.

    Dress with purpose, not pressure.

    Millionaires with $2–$5 million in assets tend to look very different from the flashy stereotype.

    Research by Thomas J. Stanley found:

    • Modest Homes: Among estates valued at $3.5 million or more, the median home value was about $469,000.
    • Small Share of Net Worth: Their primary residence typically represented less than 10% of total net worth.
    • Broader Trend: About 90% of millionaires live in homes worth $1 million or less, and nearly a third live in homes valued at $300,000 or less.
    • Income-Producing Assets First: They invest more in businesses and income-generating real estate than in luxury personal residences.

    Stanley’s rule of thumb: your home’s market value should ideally be less than three times your annual realized household income. Even affluent households ($1M–$10M+) often stay in the same, practical homes for decades.

    Other Key Patterns

    • Entrepreneurial Roots: Many built wealth by starting businesses and carving out profitable niches. They’re driven by building enterprises — wealth is the byproduct.
    • Comfortable, Not Flashy: They buy quality items but avoid waste. For example, they may purchase expensive shoes — but they resole them instead of replacing them.
    • Stable Households: They’re often married to financially responsible partners who run efficient homes — clipping coupons, buying in bulk, and managing spending carefully.
    • Simple Formula: They consistently spend less than they earn.

    Investing Habits

    Once their businesses mature, they turn to the stock market for steady capital growth. They are rarely speculators, seldom gamble, and almost never buy lottery tickets.

    You might assume they avoid speculation because they’re already wealthy — but more likely, they became wealthy because they avoid speculation.

    And if you think wealth comes from flashy appearances or shortcuts, you might as well put pantyhose over your head and ask strangers for cash — it’s about as effective.

    Money Law #9: Dress for success — but build wealth quietly.

    Start Living Differently from Everyone Else Today

    As Dave Ramsey often says:

    “If you live like no one else today, you’ll be able to live like no one else tomorrow.”

    Building wealth isn’t complicated. Retiring comfortably isn’t reserved for the lucky. It starts with committing to disciplined money habits and consistent saving. That path may put you at odds with credit card companies, frustrate the banks, and make you stand out from the “keep up with the Joneses” crowd—but that’s the point.

    Sacrifice isn’t suffering. It’s a calculated move.

    Pass on the new car today, and you keep more cash.
    Save that cash, and you can invest in assets that appreciate.
    Invest steadily, and your money begins working for you.
    Compound growth drives the engine—but your savings fuel it.

    That’s how ordinary people build extraordinary retirements.

    Stop blaming circumstances. Start making intentional decisions. Your future won’t be shaped by what you post, wish for, or complain about.

    It will be shaped by what you actually do.

    And one day, you may find yourself financially secure—with cash reserves, a solid emergency fund, reliable investment income, and peace of mind.

    Looking back, the early sacrifice won’t feel like loss.

    It will feel like leverage.

    Sources: Lance Roberts

  • No Way Out, Major Shock, Deeper Cuts as Trade Deficit Reaches $901.5 Billion

    Thursday’s headline from the United States Department of Commerce showed the U.S. trade deficit widening sharply to $70.3 billion in December and reaching $901.5 billion for full-year 2025. December imports jumped 3.6% to $357.6 billion, while exports fell 1.7% to $287.3 billion. Economists had projected a $55.8 billion gap, making the release a significant downside surprise that prompted many to cut fourth-quarter GDP forecasts. Following the data, the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta lowered its Q4 GDP estimate to 3% from 3.6%.

    The Commerce Department’s preliminary report showed the economy expanded at just a 1.4% annualized pace in Q4, well below the 2.8% consensus estimate. Federal government spending dropped 16.6% during the quarter — largely due to the shutdown — subtracting roughly one percentage point from growth. The wider trade deficit further weighed on output. For all of 2025, GDP rose 2.2%. Treasury yields drifted lower after the report, increasing expectations that the Federal Reserve may move toward another rate cut.

    One potential obstacle to near-term easing is inflation. The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index rose 0.4% in December and 2.9% year-over-year. Core PCE, excluding food and energy, also climbed 0.4% on the month and 3% annually. On a positive note, consumer spending advanced 0.4% in December, offering some support for future growth momentum.

    In financial markets, private credit came under scrutiny after Blue Owl Capital permanently restricted redemptions from one of its retail vehicles, Blue Owl Capital Corp II. The move triggered declines in alternative asset managers including Ares Management, Apollo Global Management, KKR, Blackstone, and TPG. Adding to concerns, BlackRock recently marked down portions of its private credit portfolio. Former PIMCO CEO Mohamed El-Erian publicly questioned whether this could signal a broader stress point for the sector.

    In a separate development, The Wall Street Journal reported that President Donald Trump ordered the release of government files related to UFOs and unidentified aerial phenomena following heightened public interest. The directive reportedly came after comments by former President Barack Obama referencing extraterrestrial topics. Christopher Mellon, who previously helped publicize the “Tic Tac” military footage, suggested the move could have far-reaching implications.

    Taken together, the combination of a widening trade deficit, softer GDP growth, persistent inflation, and emerging private credit strains presents a complex macro backdrop — one that leaves markets balancing expectations of further rate cuts against lingering structural risks.

    Sources: Louis Navellier

  • Trump’s Tariff Strategy Is Starting to Fray — And Markets Are Taking Notice

    When President Donald Trump returned to the White House in January 2025, he reaffirmed tariffs as the core instrument of his economic strategy — a blend of leverage, protectionism, and industrial revival. That strategy is now facing meaningful strain.

    The recent ruling by the Supreme Court of the United States that Trump exceeded his authority in imposing sweeping global tariffs without congressional approval represents more than a procedural setback. It challenges the legal scaffolding underpinning a trade agenda that has shaped U.S. economic and foreign policy over the past year.

    Markets have taken note — but without panic.

    The contrast is notable. A defining pillar of presidential economic policy has been curtailed, yet equity markets remain resilient. Volatility has surfaced intermittently, but capital has not fled risk assets. Understanding this requires separating political drama from financial mechanics.

    In theory, tariffs were meant to rebalance trade and accelerate reshoring. In practice, they largely operated as a cost-transfer mechanism. Importers absorbed part of the burden; consumers absorbed another portion through higher goods prices. Manufacturers dependent on global inputs faced margin compression. Retailers recalibrated pricing strategies. Supply chains, already strained in prior years, became more complex.

    Economic data reflect this friction. Growth momentum has slowed from last year’s pace. Manufacturing surveys show uneven demand. Trade-sensitive capital expenditure has cooled. Meanwhile, inflation remains sticky — particularly in services — and goods categories exposed to import costs have seen renewed firmness. The anticipated mix of rapid expansion and stable prices has not materialized.

    Markets, however, trade forward expectations — earnings trajectories and liquidity conditions — rather than political symbolism.

    Large-cap U.S. equities continue to attract global capital, particularly in AI and advanced technology. Investment in semiconductors, cloud infrastructure, and computing capacity remains strong despite macro uncertainty. Earnings concentration in these sectors offsets weakness in more cyclical areas.

    Investors see deceleration, not collapse. Corporate balance sheets remain broadly healthy. Employment is moderating but not deteriorating sharply. Financial conditions are tighter than in prior cycles, yet not restrictive enough to signal systemic stress.

    Against this backdrop, a potential scaling back of tariffs introduces nuance rather than shock.

    If trade barriers are diluted or subject to firmer congressional oversight, input costs could ease over time. That may gradually relieve goods-based inflation pressures. Supply chain planning could improve. Corporate forecasting may gain clarity — and clarity reduces risk premiums.

    Bond markets reflect this balance. Treasury yields have fluctuated as investors weigh persistent inflation against moderating growth. Should tariff-driven price pressures fade, longer-term yields may stabilize. However, fiscal deficits and wage resilience continue to exert upward pressure. The tension remains unresolved.

    Currency markets face competing forces. Reduced trade escalation could temper safe-haven demand for the dollar. Yet relative U.S. growth and yield differentials still offer structural support. Conviction remains limited.

    Emerging markets are unlikely to move uniformly. Economies closely tied to U.S. demand may feel slower export momentum if domestic growth softens. Commodity exporters could benefit if inflation expectations anchor raw material prices at elevated levels. Capital allocation is becoming more selective.

    None of this implies smooth conditions ahead.

    Political backlash to the court’s decision could generate renewed volatility. Legislative countermeasures remain possible. Trade partners will recalibrate strategy in response to shifting U.S. authority.

    Markets tend to resist escalation but adapt to adjustment.

    Trump’s tariff strategy was presented as transformative. The measurable economic payoff has been less decisive. Growth has moderated, inflation has persisted, and structural trade imbalances remain largely intact.

    Investors are pragmatic. A policy losing legal footing does not automatically trigger liquidation. If the outcome is reduced uncertainty and steadier price dynamics, equities can continue advancing even as political narratives fragment.

    Cautious optimism defines the current tone.

    Risk appetite remains conditional. A renewed acceleration in inflation would alter expectations quickly. A material deterioration in employment would challenge confidence. Fiscal expansion without corresponding growth would intensify long-term sustainability concerns.Markets are not celebrating policy unraveling — they are recalibrating probabilities.

    The assessment is sober: an economy that is softer but not broken; inflation that is persistent but not runaway; profitability concentrated but durable in structurally advantaged sectors.Trade authority may now face clearer constitutional limits. Structural investment in innovation continues.

    Capital ultimately flows toward earnings visibility and long-duration growth themes. Tariffs have dominated headlines. Technology and AI dominate capital expenditure.

    Investors are adjusting exposure and preparing for volatility — but not retreating.The tariff agenda is under pressure. Financial markets, for now, are looking past it.

    Sources: Nigel Green

  • Analysis: Supreme Court Pushes Back on Trump’s Broad Interpretation of Executive Authority

    For more than a year, Donald Trump has operated in Washington with sweeping confidence, exercising power in ways critics said resembled monarchical authority. On Friday, however, the Supreme Court of the United States sharply redirected that momentum.

    By invalidating his administration’s cornerstone economic policy, the court handed down a rare and highly visible rebuke, signaling that even a dominant president faces constitutional limits. The 6–3 ruling, written by Chief Justice John Roberts, rejected Trump’s expansive claim that he could impose broad tariffs under emergency powers to safeguard U.S. economic security.

    Trump reacted swiftly and angrily. According to Delaware Governor Matt Meyer, the president told governors at the White House that he was “seething” and needed to respond to the courts. Later, speaking to reporters, he criticized the justices who ruled against him — including two he had appointed — calling them weak and an embarrassment. Still, he maintained that the decision ultimately clarified his authority and insisted he could pursue even higher tariffs through alternative legal avenues.

    Few issues have defined Trump’s second term more than tariffs, which he has frequently described as his “favorite word.” He used them not only as trade tools but as leverage in disputes over agriculture, foreign investment, narcotics trafficking, prescription drug pricing, and industrial policy. While Congress holds constitutional authority over taxation, the Republican-controlled legislature largely refrained from challenging his approach, and the conservative-leaning court had often bolstered executive power in prior rulings.

    This decision, however, marked a boundary. Historians and legal scholars described it as a direct blow to Trump’s broad interpretation of emergency authority under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act. Although the president suggested he could rely on other statutes — and even impose a temporary global tariff — such paths would likely involve stricter procedural requirements and time constraints.

    Legal experts noted that no previous president had used the disputed law as aggressively. As University of Virginia scholar Saikrishna Prakash put it, the ruling leaves the presidency “definitely weaker,” underscoring that even assertive executive power remains subject to judicial review.

    Sources: Reuters

  • The Dollar dips following the Supreme Court’s tariff decision, yet remains on track for its best weekly performance since November.

    The U.S. dollar edged lower on Friday as investors digested the impact of the Supreme Court’s decision to invalidate President Donald Trump’s broad tariff measures. Despite the pullback, the greenback remained on track for its strongest weekly advance since November, supported by a more hawkish tone from the Federal Reserve and ongoing geopolitical tensions between the U.S. and Iran.

    As of 17:31 ET (22:31 GMT), the Dollar Index slipped 0.2% to 97.72, though it was still poised to post a weekly gain of around 1%, its best showing in nearly three months.

    The Supreme Court ruled 6–3 that Trump lacked authority under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) to implement sweeping reciprocal tariffs. The president criticized the decision as “deeply disappointing” and indicated that tariffs would remain in effect through alternative legal channels, alongside a new 10% global levy.

    According to Jeff Buchbinder of LPL Financial, removing the tariff overhang eliminates a drag on economic growth that had been expected to lift costs and pressure corporate margins. With that risk easing, growth may stabilize and inflation expectations embedded in bond markets could cool more quickly, potentially prompting a modest reassessment of Fed rate-cut expectations and weighing slightly on the dollar.

    Even so, the dollar had attracted demand earlier in the week, underpinned by resilient U.S. economic data, hawkish Fed meeting minutes, and heightened Middle East tensions.

    Friday’s data, however, delivered mixed signals. Core PCE — the Fed’s preferred inflation measure — rose 0.4% month-over-month and 3.0% year-over-year in December 2025, marking the highest annual reading since November 2023 and remaining well above the 2% target. Meanwhile, preliminary fourth-quarter GDP growth came in at 1.4%, falling short of the 2.8% consensus forecast.

    In Europe, EUR/USD ticked up 0.1% to 1.1781, though the euro was still headed for a 0.7% weekly decline amid uncertainty surrounding ECB President Christine Lagarde’s tenure and softer German producer price data. Analysts at ING noted that while sentiment indicators such as the ZEW survey disappointed, the eurozone composite PMI is expected to stay above the 50 threshold, limiting downside pressure on the euro.

    GBP/USD rose 0.1% to 1.3474, but sterling hovered near a one-month low and was set for a weekly loss of about 1.3%. Strong January retail sales — up 1.8% month-over-month and 4.5% year-over-year — failed to provide sustained support. ING analysts said markets are pricing in a Bank of England rate cut in March, with another possible move in June, while political risks continue to weigh on the pound.

    In Asia, USD/JPY held steady at 155.06 after data showed Japan’s inflation slowed to 1.5% in January, slipping below the Bank of Japan’s target for the first time in nearly four years. Core inflation excluding fresh food and fuel also moderated, reinforcing uncertainty over the timing of the next rate hike. Separate data showed Japanese factory activity expanded at its fastest pace in over four years in February.

    USD/CNY was unchanged at 6.9087, with Chinese markets closed. Meanwhile, AUD/USD climbed 0.5% to 0.70892, although the Australian dollar trimmed some gains after unemployment held at 4.1% in January, signaling a still-tight but gradually cooling labor market.

    Sources: Anuron Mitra

  • Energy vs. Tech: Where Is Capital Rotating Now?

    After a powerful rally in large-cap technology shares, investors are once again asking whether smart money is beginning to rotate.

    With AI enthusiasm pushing tech valuations higher and energy names still trading at comparatively modest multiples, there are early signs that capital flows may be shifting beneath the surface. Here’s a closer look at the current landscape — and where institutional positioning may be headed.

    The Case for Tech: Structural Growth Still Intact

    Companies such as Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA), Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT), and Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) remain central pillars of institutional portfolios.

    Technology continues to lead in earnings expansion, fueled by AI infrastructure investment, cloud migration, and ongoing software monetization.

    Why capital is still favoring tech:

    • Revenue growth outpacing the broader market
    • High operating margins and robust free cash flow
    • Sustained AI-driven capex cycles
    • Strong balance sheets with significant liquidity

    Mega-cap tech remains a structural core holding for institutional investors. Even during brief pullbacks, dip-buying has been persistent — a sign that long-term conviction in the sector remains strong.

    That said, valuations in select segments have stretched beyond historical norms. If earnings momentum moderates, the probability of sector rotation increases, particularly as investors reassess risk-reward at elevated multiples.

    The Case for Energy: Undervalued and Cash-Generative

    Integrated majors such as Exxon Mobil (NYSE: XOM) and Chevron (NYSE: CVX) are drawing renewed attention as investors reassess sector allocations.

    Energy equities typically trade in cycles influenced by crude prices, global demand dynamics, and geopolitical developments. After extended periods of relative underperformance, the sector often becomes a magnet for value-oriented capital.

    Why institutional money may rotate toward energy:

    • Lower forward P/E multiples compared to technology
    • Strong and visible free cash flow generation
    • Dividend yields frequently above the broader market average
    • Ongoing share repurchase programs

    If crude prices remain stable or trend higher, integrated oil majors can produce substantial cash flows, offering a mix of income, capital return, and relative defensiveness.

    In an environment where parts of the technology sector appear valuation-stretched, energy provides a compelling contrast on both multiples and yield.

    Sector ETF Signals: Tracking Institutional Flows

    Sector ETFs can offer valuable insight into how institutional capital is rotating beneath the surface. Two key vehicles to monitor are the Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund (NYSE: XLK) and the Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund (NYSE: XLE).

    ETF performance and fund flow data often act as real-time indicators of positioning shifts:

    • If XLK continues to outperform, it suggests growth leadership remains firmly in place.
    • If XLE begins to show sustained relative strength versus XLK, it may signal that rotation into energy is gaining traction.

    Historically, sector leadership transitions tend to coincide with:

    • Shifts in interest rate expectations
    • Narrowing earnings growth differentials
    • Sharp moves in commodity prices

    Monitoring the relative strength ratio between XLE and XLK can provide early confirmation of whether capital is merely rebalancing tactically — or whether a broader structural rotation is unfolding.

    Macro Forces Driving Sector Rotation

    1. Interest Rates
    Elevated yields tend to weigh more heavily on high-multiple technology stocks, as future cash flows are discounted at higher rates. In contrast, energy companies—often valued on nearer-term cash generation—can prove more resilient. If bond yields move higher, defensive value sectors may attract incremental capital at the expense of growth.

    2. Commodity Prices
    Oil prices remain a primary earnings driver for energy producers. A sustained rally in crude can rapidly alter sector performance dynamics, drawing capital into integrated majors and upstream names as profit expectations improve.

    3. Earnings Revisions
    Institutional allocation models closely track forward earnings revisions. If analyst upgrades begin to slow in technology while turning more constructive for energy, portfolio rebalancing flows may follow.

    4. Risk Appetite
    Technology typically outperforms in strong risk-on environments characterized by abundant liquidity and growth optimism. Energy, by contrast, can gain relative strength during inflationary phases or periods of geopolitical tension, when commodity exposure and cash yield become more attractive.

    What Institutional Capital Is Likely Doing Now

    Rather than making an outright “either/or” shift, institutional investors typically adjust exposure more subtly. That can mean trimming extended technology positions, selectively adding energy holdings, or rotating within sectors—such as moving from mega-cap AI leaders into second-tier beneficiaries of the theme.

    The real driver is relative earnings momentum, not headlines.

    Which Sector Offers More Upside?

    Tech Upside Scenario

    • Continued acceleration in AI-related spending
    • Consistent earnings beats from mega-cap leaders
    • Declining bond yields that support higher valuation multiples

    Energy Upside Scenario

    • Oil prices establish a sustained uptrend
    • Inflation concerns re-emerge
    • Technology valuations compress

    In the near term, technology remains the structural growth narrative, supported by AI infrastructure, cloud expansion, and software monetization. However, energy presents potential asymmetric upside if commodity dynamics shift in its favor.

    Sector rotation is rarely abrupt. More often, it unfolds gradually through portfolio rebalancing rather than wholesale liquidation.

    While tech continues to dominate leadership, energy’s relative valuation discount and strong cash generation could attract incremental capital if macro conditions evolve.

    Key indicators to monitor:

    • Relative strength between the Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund and the Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund
    • Forward earnings revisions
    • Oil price trends
    • Bond yield movements

    The critical question is not whether rotation will occur — but whether it is already quietly underway beneath the surface.

    Sources: Tafara Tsoka

  • Major FX Pairs Face Critical Levels Amid Heightened Macro Volatility

    Macro uncertainty is intensifying just as EUR/USD and GBP/USD test pivotal technical zones. With interest-rate expectations shifting and tail risks mounting, the next directional move may depend more on macro catalysts than chart patterns.

    Both pairs are hovering near critical support and resistance levels, while a dense lineup of U.S. and European data raises the prospect of increased volatility. The dollar continues to trade in close correlation with Treasury yields and evolving Federal Reserve rate pricing, reinforcing the macro-driven backdrop.

    At the same time, tariff developments and geopolitical tensions are injecting additional tail risk ahead of the weekend, leaving markets vulnerable to sharp, sentiment-driven swings.

    Summary

    As the week moves into its final stretch, both Europe and the United States face a heavy slate of economic releases—and this is unlikely to be mere background noise for markets. Recent price action has already underscored how reactive EUR/USD and GBP/USD are to changes in relative rate expectations across the U.S., U.K., and euro area.

    With both currency pairs now positioned near critical technical thresholds, the incoming data flow carries the potential to do more than simply inject volatility. It may ultimately determine whether the latest directional moves gain traction—or begin to lose momentum and reverse.

    Heavy Data Calendar Lifts Volatility Threat

    Flash PMIs rarely fail to generate movement in EUR/USD and GBP/USD, largely because European participants tend to respond far more decisively to the releases than traders elsewhere. In the euro area, the focus is likely to center on price components and new orders, especially in light of the recent resilience in the single currency. In the UK, attention may gravitate toward price pressures, employment trends, and overall activity, reflecting the economy’s persistent softness.

    The more consequential headline risk, however, lies in the United States. The advance Q4 GDP print stands out. While backward-looking and heavily estimate-based, it still carries the potential to influence how the dollar closes the week. An upside surprise would reinforce the narrative of U.S. exceptionalism. A downside miss, on the other hand, could reignite expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts—expectations that have recently been scaled back after generally firm data and relatively hawkish FOMC minutes.

    December’s core PCE deflator rarely delivers genuine surprises these days. Enhanced data mapping has largely diminished its shock factor, shifting attention toward the consumption and income components instead. Markets will scrutinize the consumption data for signs that recent weakness in goods demand has spilled into services, while income figures should provide a clearer indication of households’ capacity to sustain spending.

    US flash PMIs, meanwhile, have produced inconsistent market reactions and are often overshadowed when more significant releases land on the same day. Broadly speaking, they have tended to exaggerate the signal seen in ISM surveys. As a result, a stronger market response may emerge if there are clear signs of softening—particularly within the services sector.

    Weekend Risk Premium Builds

    Beyond the dense data schedule, traders also face mounting tail risks heading into the weekend. A ruling from the Supreme Court of the United States on the legality of tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) could arrive around 10 a.m. U.S. time, although there is no certainty a decision will be issued today. Even the possibility is sufficient to keep markets cautious, given the potential implications for Treasury yields and overall risk sentiment.

    At the same time, Donald Trump has set a 10-day deadline for Iran to reach a deal or face potential military action. Considering the risks to global energy supply—and the United States’ position as a major energy producer—any pre-emptive strike would likely support the dollar against European currencies, particularly if it sparks a renewed wave of risk aversion.

    Regarding tariffs, the market reaction may remain relatively muted regardless of the court’s decision—unless investors begin to question whether any shortfall in government revenues can be covered through alternative channels. Should doubts arise on that front, both the dollar and longer-dated Treasuries could face meaningful downside pressure as fiscal concerns move to the forefront.

    Dollar Catalysts Return to Center Stage

    Underscoring the significance of the upcoming data and event risk, the US Dollar Index (DXY) has shown a notably tight correlation over the past week with Fed rate-cut expectations, front-end yield differentials, US two-year Treasury yields, and even Brent crude, as illustrated in the middle panel of the chart above. In practical terms, the dollar has reverted to trading primarily as a rates-and-yields narrative, with an added layer of sensitivity to energy prices.

    Yet the 20-day correlation metrics shown on the right paint a much less compelling picture. Over the past month, these relationships have been weak and statistically insignificant, serving as a reminder that the recent alignment may prove temporary rather than structural.

    GBP/USD Faces Growing Downside Pressure

    As discussed in earlier analysis this week, the release of key UK labour market and inflation figures acted as the catalyst that pushed GBP/USD out of its consolidation phase. Combined with firm U.S. data, the move triggered a decisive break below multiple technical markers, including the November uptrend and the 50-day moving average, before finding support at the 200-day moving average. Whether assessed through pure price action or momentum indicators, the bias now tilts toward increasing downside risk.

    The 14-period RSI continues to trend lower below the 50 mark, while MACD has crossed beneath its signal line and moved into negative territory—both reinforcing the build-up of bearish momentum. As a result, selling rallies appears more favorable than buying dips. That said, the pair’s proximity to the 200DMA provides a clearly defined reference point for structuring trades as incoming data and headlines shape sentiment.

    A sustained break below the 200DMA would strengthen the bearish case, opening the door for short positions with stops placed just above the average. Initial downside targets would sit at 1.3371, followed by 1.3300 and 1.3250. Conversely, if price manages to hold above the 200DMA, the setup could shift tactically. Long positions above the level, with stops placed beneath, would target 1.3535—a zone where several technical indicators, including the 50DMA, currently converge. A reclaim of that area would undermine the newly established bearish bias and shift directional risks back toward a sideways-to-higher outlook.

    Triangle Formation Brings Breakout Levels Into View

    With EUR/USD coiling within a descending triangle and momentum indicators drifting lower, downside risks appear to be gradually building. A decisive break beneath the confluence of the 50-day moving average and horizontal support at 1.1768 may prove pivotal in unlocking further weakness. Thursday’s doji candle aligns with that narrative, highlighting a degree of indecision among market participants at a technically sensitive juncture.

    While the bearish case in GBP/USD looks more straightforward—given recent UK data and the repricing of Bank of England rate expectations—the outlook for the euro is less clear-cut. That ambiguity reinforces the importance of upcoming data and headlines in shaping near-term direction. RSI (14) has slipped just below 50, offering a neutral-to-soft signal, while MACD has rolled over but remains marginally above zero, underscoring the lack of decisive momentum so far.

    The descending triangle structure keeps the downside break scenario firmly in focus, but confirmation is still required. A sustained break and close below the 50DMA/1.1768 area would strengthen the bearish case, with short positions targeting 1.1684 initially, followed by the 200-day moving average. Stops could be placed just above the broken support zone for protection.

    Conversely, if the pair manages to hold this confluence area, a tactical long setup may be considered with tight stops below, initially targeting the January downtrend line. Should price test but fail to clear that trendline convincingly, it may favor squaring positions or re-establishing shorts with stops above, aiming for a retest of the 50DMA/1.1768 region. A clean upside breakout, however, would alter the landscape, opening scope toward 1.1837 and potentially 1.1918, shifting directional risks back toward a sideways-to-higher bias.

    Sources: David Scutt

  • Gold Breakout Above $5,160 Signals Move Toward $5,275

    Gold futures are presently moving within a defined VC PMI mean-reversion structure, signaling a market positioned at a pivotal balance point between accumulation and expansion. The price hovering near 5,030 coincides exactly with the weekly VC PMI mean, reinforcing the idea that value and momentum are in equilibrium as traders wait for a clear directional trigger.

    When prices consolidate around the mean, the probability outlook turns neutral. A decisive breakout above resistance or a pullback into lower value zones is needed to generate the next high-probability trading opportunity.

    Under the VC PMI framework, a sustained close above the 5,030 weekly mean and the daily Sell-1 resistance around 5,036 shifts probabilities in favor of continued upside. That confirmation opens the path toward the daily Sell-2 level near 5,075 and the weekly Sell-1 target at 5,160. A firm break and close above 5,160 would mark the start of a volatility expansion phase, transitioning the market from consolidation into a directional trend, with former Sell-1 and Sell-2 levels converting into support.

    In that bullish scenario, momentum could extend toward the weekly Sell-2 objective around 5,275, signaling stronger institutional flows and momentum-based participation. Historical probability metrics suggest that once price closes above the mean and sustains it, there is roughly a 70–80% chance of continuation toward the next resistance zone.

    On the other hand, failure to hold above the VC PMI mean—particularly a close below 5,000—would tilt probabilities toward a corrective retracement into the daily Buy-1 level near 4,965 and Buy-2 around 4,933. These represent statistically extreme value areas, where the model identifies a 90–95% probability of reversion back toward equilibrium after being tested.

    As long as price remains above the weekly Buy-1 level at 4,916, the broader technical structure stays constructive, implying pullbacks are corrective in nature rather than trend reversals. However, a decisive break below the weekly Buy-2 level at 4,785 would negate the current bullish outlook and point to a deeper cyclical correction.

    Time-cycle analysis heading into late February and early March highlights critical inflection windows around February 24–26 and March 3–7—periods that historically coincide with shifts from consolidation to expansion phases.

    These timing cycles correspond with Square-of-9 harmonic resistance in the 5,075–5,160 range and support clusters between 4,965 and 4,916, forming a technically balanced and mathematically aligned trading range.

    When time and price harmonics converge in this manner, the probability of volatility expansion increases significantly, often leading to directional breakouts accompanied by stronger momentum and broader market participation.

    Sources: Patrick MontesDeOca

  • Forex Today: PMI Data from Key Economies and US GDP Figures Set to Boost Market Volatility

    Here’s what you need to know for Friday, February 20:

    The US Dollar Index (DXY) maintains its upward momentum, hovering near 98.00 after reaching a near one-month high on Thursday. The economic agenda for Friday features preliminary February Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data from Germany, the Eurozone, the UK and the US. The spotlight, however, will be on the first estimate of fourth-quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth and the December Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, both to be released by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis.

    The US Dollar outperformed major peers on Thursday amid a risk-off market tone fueled by rising tensions between the US and Iran. According to BBC, US President Donald Trump warned that Iran must strike a deal or face serious consequences. Iran, in communication with UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres, stated it does not seek conflict but would not tolerate military aggression. Iranian officials also reportedly cautioned that any US military move over the nuclear issue would be met with a decisive response. Early Friday, US stock index futures were modestly higher.

    The US economy is expected to have expanded at an annualized pace of 3% in Q4, following a 4.4% increase in the prior quarter. Meanwhile, the core PCE Price Index — the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge — is forecast to rise 2.9% year-over-year in December, up slightly from 2.8% in November.

    EUR/USD, which closed lower on Thursday, remains under pressure early Friday, trading near 1.1750. PMI figures from Germany and the Eurozone are anticipated to continue signaling expansion in private-sector activity for February.

    GBP/USD extended its decline for a fourth straight session on Thursday and trades below 1.3450, marking its weakest level since late January. Data from the UK’s Office for National Statistics showed that Retail Sales climbed 1.8% month-over-month in January, significantly beating the 0.2% consensus estimate.

    USD/JPY continues its weekly advance and holds comfortably above 155.00 in early Friday trading. Japan’s Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi stated that necessary expenditures would largely be financed through the initial budget, adding that efforts would be made to gradually reduce the debt-to-GDP ratio and restore fiscal discipline. Japan’s National Consumer Price Index rose 1.5% in January, down from 2.1% in December.

    Gold benefited from safe-haven demand on Thursday but struggled to build momentum amid broad USD strength. XAU/USD edges higher during the European session on Friday, trading above $5,000.

    In Australia, flash data from S&P Global showed the Composite PMI easing to 52 in February from 55.7 in January. AUD/USD largely brushed off the release and was last seen slightly lower on the day near 0.7050.

    Sources: Eren Sengezer

  • When will the UK Services PMI be released, and what impact might it have on the GBP/USD pair?

    UK Services PMI Overview

    The United Kingdom is set to release its preliminary February Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) figures, with the data scheduled to be published by S&P Global on Friday at 09:30 GMT.

    The Services PMI is forecast at 53.6, slightly lower than January’s reading of 54.0, signaling a modest slowdown in services sector growth.

    Potential Impact on GBP/USD

    If the Services PMI prints in line with expectations, GBP/USD could face pressure, as a softer services reading may counterbalance the recent strength seen in UK Retail Sales.

    UK Retail Sales rose 1.8% month-over-month in January, well above December’s 0.4% gain and surpassing the 0.2% market forecast. Core Retail Sales increased 2.0% over the same period, improving from a 0.3% rise previously and exceeding expectations for a 0.2% uptick.

    However, the pair may remain under strain as the US Dollar stays firm following the release of the January meeting minutes from the Federal Open Market Committee. The minutes revived speculation that the Federal Reserve could consider further rate hikes if inflation proves persistent. Although most officials favored holding rates steady, only a minority supported a cut, and policymakers suggested easing could be appropriate if inflation slows as projected.

    From a technical standpoint, GBP/USD has stabilized after rebounding from daily losses, hovering near 1.3460 at the time of writing. Daily chart analysis points to a developing bearish tone, with the pair trading below an ascending channel formation. Immediate support is located near the two-month high of 1.3344. On the upside, resistance is seen at the 50-day EMA around 1.3524, followed by the nine-day EMA near 1.3548.

    Sources: Akhtar Faruqui

  • Oil hovers near six-month peak on US-Iran tensions, poised for strong weekly gains.

    Oil prices moved modestly higher in Asian trading on Friday, building on strong gains from the prior two sessions and putting major benchmarks on course for roughly a 6% weekly advance, as rising tensions between the U.S. and Iran heightened concerns about potential supply disruptions in the Middle East.

    By 22:41 ET (03:41 GMT), Brent for April delivery climbed 0.2% to $71.81 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude rose 0.5% to $66.78 a barrel.

    Both contracts were hovering near their highest levels since early August and were set to record weekly gains of more than 6%.

    Oil near six-month high on US-Iran tensions

    Investor anxiety has intensified after U.S. President Donald Trump warned Tehran that “bad things” could follow if a nuclear agreement is not reached within roughly 10–15 days, raising the possibility of military action.

    According to a Wall Street Journal report, Trump is considering a limited strike on Iranian targets to pressure Tehran into accepting a nuclear deal.

    Any escalation involving Iran — a key OPEC producer — could jeopardize shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, a vital passageway that handles about one-fifth of global oil trade, thereby increasing the market’s sensitivity to geopolitical risk.

    This week’s rally also marked a rebound from earlier losses, when prices slipped at the start of the week on hopes that U.S.-Iran negotiations were making progress. The renewed tough rhetoric has since restored a geopolitical risk premium, pushing crude back toward multi-week highs.

    US crude inventories drop sharply – EIA

    Data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration on Thursday showed crude stockpiles fell by around 9 million barrels last week, defying expectations for a 1.7 million-barrel increase.

    The report also indicated declines in gasoline and distillate inventories, both coming in below forecasts, suggesting solid demand from refiners and consumers.

    Markets are now awaiting the release of the U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index later on Friday — the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation.

    Following recent hawkish Fed minutes that signaled policymakers are in no rush to cut interest rates, the PCE data could offer additional insight into the central bank’s policy trajectory.

    Sources: Ayushman Ojha

  • Disinflation Signals Potential for Earlier and Larger Fed Rate Cuts

    Inflation came in cooler than anticipated in January, though markets still largely expect the Federal Reserve to hold its benchmark rate steady until June. However, the bond market appears ready to test that timeline, increasingly factoring in the possibility of a rate cut arriving sooner.

    According to government data released Friday, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 2.4% year over year in January, down from 2.7% in December and marking the lowest reading in eight months. Core CPI—which excludes volatile food and energy prices and is considered a clearer gauge of underlying inflation—also eased to 2.5% annually, its slowest pace since 2021.

    While the slowdown in headline inflation is a welcome development, a deeper dive into the data suggests it may be premature to relax concerns about where prices are headed next. Persistent increases in tariff-sensitive goods remain one pressure point. Food prices are another, climbing 2.9% year over year—elevated by historical standards.

    Energy costs rose even more sharply, and both homeowners’ and renters’ insurance premiums continued to increase. Moreover, inflation is still running above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target, reinforcing the likelihood that policymakers will proceed carefully.

    Although it’s too soon to claim inflation has been fully tamed, the broader trend of moderating price growth strengthens the argument that the worst may be behind us. The Capital Spectator’s ensemble forecast has long projected continued disinflation in core CPI, a view that has so far aligned reasonably well with actual data. The model still anticipates further easing, with core CPI’s 12-month rate expected to edge down to around 2.4% in the upcoming February report.

    Fed funds futures continue to indicate that the first rate cut won’t arrive until the June meeting. In contrast, the Treasury market appears to be probing the possibility of an earlier move. The policy-sensitive 2-year Treasury yield has fallen to about 3.45%—near its lowest level since 2022—and now sits below the Federal Reserve’s current target range of 3.50% to 3.75%, signaling that bond investors may be anticipating a faster shift in policy.

    In short, Treasury market sentiment is tilting toward the idea that a rate cut could come sooner than previously anticipated. Other market-based indicators are reinforcing that view by assigning higher odds to continued disinflation.

    The average of two Treasury-derived inflation gauges now projects five-year inflation in the low 2% range—the mildest reading in a month and not far from the Federal Reserve’s 2% objective. The surge in inflation expectations seen in January has since unwound, signaling that investors have grown less worried about upside inflation risks in recent weeks.

    Markets are not infallible, but it would likely require a meaningful upside surprise in the economic data—pointing to renewed inflationary pressure—to overturn the prevailing disinflation narrative. For now, investors show little appetite for betting on a reflationary turn.

    Sources: James Picerno

  • Nvidia’s Earnings Wrap-Up: A Grand Finale to the Season

    As fourth-quarter 2025 earnings season draws to a close, Nvidia (NVDA) is once again set to headline the finale, with its results due on February 25. Following Super Micro Computer (SMCI) reporting an impressive 123% surge in sales, expectations are high that Nvidia will once more capture investors’ attention.

    Additional momentum came from Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSM), which posted a 37% jump in January revenue—its fastest pace in months and well above its 30% growth outlook for 2026. As a key supplier of advanced chips for Microsoft Surface devices, Apple computers, and Nvidia’s GPUs, TSM’s strong performance reinforces the view that the AI expansion is accelerating, a positive signal for Nvidia’s forward guidance.

    On the geopolitical front, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio received a warm reception, including a standing ovation, for his remarks at the Munich Security Conference. While European leaders praised his speech, they reiterated their commitment to Net Zero emissions targets and emphasized their desire to play a central role in discussions regarding Ukraine and Russia.

    Meanwhile, French President Emmanuel Macron has publicly suggested that President Trump aims to weaken the EU. Facing domestic political pressure, including strong influence from Marine Le Pen in parliament, Macron appears to be rallying pro-EU supporters ahead of the 2027 European elections, where anti-EU parties are expected to gain ground.

    Tensions between France and Germany have added strain to the European Union, though Germany and Italy have recently aligned more closely due to their interconnected manufacturing sectors. Poland, by contrast, stands out for its strong economic growth. At the Munich conference, a Polish official voiced disagreement with U.S. policy on the EU’s Net Zero agenda—an interesting stance given Poland’s continued reliance on coal. However, its relatively low electricity costs have supported industrial expansion, potentially attracting manufacturing activity under stricter EU emissions rules.

    Elsewhere, Iran has reportedly floated the idea of temporarily halting uranium enrichment and exploring potential commercial arrangements with the U.S. President Trump commented that Iran likely prefers a deal to facing the consequences of failing to reach one. Hopes of incremental diplomatic progress have slightly eased gold prices, although a comprehensive agreement between the two nations appears unlikely in the near term.

    Sources: Louis Navellier

  • 3 Dividend Stocks That Could Fly Under the Radar in Volatile 2026 Markets

    Volatility in the S&P 500 has led to repeated swings without the steady upward momentum that characterized much of late 2025. With concerns about a potential correction—such as the bursting of an AI-driven bubble—investors may look toward more defensive options like dividend-paying stocks.

    That said, dividend investing spans a wide spectrum. While many gravitate toward globally recognized, ultra-stable companies favored by figures like Warren Buffett, lesser-known firms can sometimes offer both dependable income and greater growth potential. Three under-the-radar dividend payers worth noting are Hancock Whitney Corp., NewMarket Corp., and Horace Mann Educators Corp..

    A Well-Capitalized Southern Bank Gaining Momentum

    Hancock Whitney Corp. is a bank holding company best known in the Gulf South. Through Hancock Whitney Bank, it provides commercial and retail banking along with wealth management services.

    The company offers a solid 2.53% dividend yield and maintains a conservative payout ratio of 31.7%. In Q4 2025, earnings per share narrowly exceeded expectations by one cent, though revenue fell short.

    Looking ahead to 2026, several factors strengthen its outlook. The company recently completed a bond portfolio restructuring expected to lift net interest margin by about 7 basis points and boost annual EPS by roughly $0.23. Loan growth is improving, and a strong capital position supported share buybacks totaling about 3% of outstanding shares in Q4 alone. That same capital base reinforces dividend sustainability, making it appealing for risk-conscious investors.

    NewMarket: Resilient Income Despite Market Pressures

    NewMarket Corp., a specialty chemicals company focused on lubricants and petroleum additives, has seen its shares decline roughly 14% year to date following its latest earnings release.

    Lower net income and EPS in 2025—largely due to a higher effective tax rate—pressured results, while fourth-quarter petroleum additive shipments fell about 6% year over year amid softer demand.

    However, its specialty materials division has performed strongly, bolstered by the October acquisition of aerospace propellant firm Calca. The company plans to invest $1 billion to expand this segment further in 2026.

    Despite a Wall Street “Hold” rating, NewMarket continues generating strong cash flow. Last quarter alone, it returned $183 million to shareholders through dividends and buybacks. The stock yields 2.01%, carries a payout ratio just over 27%, and has consistently raised its dividend over multiple years.

    Horace Mann’s Broad Strength Supports Its Dividend

    Horace Mann Educators Corp., which provides retirement, property, and casualty insurance products tailored to U.S. school employees, has posted several strong quarters.

    Its latest results included a 3-cent EPS beat and record full-year EPS of $4.71. Forecasts for 2026 align with the company’s 10% compound annual growth target.

    Much of this improvement stems from its property and casualty segment, where both the combined ratio and core earnings improved significantly—more than doubling last year. Growth in individual supplemental and group sales has further diversified the business.

    An early retirement initiative is expected to generate $10 million in annual savings, helping the company reduce its expense ratio by 100–150 basis points over the next three years. This should enhance cash flow for additional buybacks—after $21 million in repurchases in 2025—and continued dividend support. The stock currently offers a 3.25% yield with a 35.9% payout ratio.

    In a market environment marked by uneven performance, these lesser-known dividend stocks combine income stability with strategic growth initiatives, making them compelling options for investors navigating potential turbulence in 2026.

    Sources: Nathan Reiff

  • USD/JPY holds near the 155.00 level as dollar strength keeps bulls in control.

    USD/JPY is consolidating Wednesday’s strong advance, hovering near the 155.00 mark early Thursday. The bullish bias remains intact as concerns over Japan’s fiscal outlook and a generally positive market sentiment continue to weigh on the safe-haven Japanese Yen.

    At the same time, the latest FOMC Minutes revealed divisions among Fed officials regarding the need and timing of additional rate cuts amid lingering inflation risks. This uncertainty lends support to the US Dollar, providing an added tailwind for the pair.

    USD/JPY Technical Overview

    The US Dollar (USD) is trading with a mild bullish bias against the Japanese Yen (JPY) this week, hovering near the top of the 153.00 range. However, the pair remains confined within its weekly boundaries, as resistance around 154.00 continues to cap upside attempts ahead of the release of the minutes from the US Federal Reserve’s latest meeting.

    Fundamental Overview

    The Federal Reserve kept its benchmark rate unchanged at 3.5%–3.75% and signaled that policy is likely to remain steady in the near term. The meeting minutes are expected to underscore divisions within the committee—differences that are drawing added attention after last week’s softer U.S. inflation data and disappointing jobs report.

    On Tuesday, Chicago Fed President Aistan Goolsbee pointed to those internal splits, noting that if inflation continues to ease, the central bank could lower rates multiple times this year.

    In Japan, weak fourth-quarter GDP data released Monday have renewed worries about the country’s economic prospects, reinforcing Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s push for substantial fiscal stimulus and tax cuts.

    Meanwhile, the International Monetary Fund cautioned that reducing the consumption tax could strain public finances and urged the Bank of Japan to tighten monetary policy further to keep inflation in check. As a result, the yen’s recent bullish momentum has faded somewhat, offering relief to the previously pressured U.S. dollar.

  • SUI continues to trade in a narrow range as markets await the launch of Grayscale’s GSUI ETF.

    Sui remains under pressure near $0.96 as its technical outlook continues to weaken. The upcoming launch of the Grayscale Sui Staking ETF on Wednesday will give investors exposure to the Sui Network’s native token. However, subdued retail participation — with futures Open Interest hovering just above $500 million — could restrain any meaningful breakout attempt.

    Sui (SUI) has extended its decline for a second straight session, trading around $0.95 at the time of writing on Wednesday. The Layer-1 token has dropped more than 16% in February and is down roughly 34% year-to-date, mirroring the broader bearish tone across the crypto market.

    Technically, Sui risks prolonging its downtrend amid weak retail engagement. While support at $0.87 remains intact for now, a decisive break below this level could open the door for a pullback toward the $0.79 demand zone.

    Grayscale’s Sui Staking ETF begins trading

    Grayscale Investments has confirmed the launch of its Sui Staking Exchange-Traded Fund (ETF), set to start trading Wednesday. The fund is listed on NYSE Arca under the ticker GSUI, following the conversion of the former Grayscale Sui Trust. The ETF is expected to hold SUI tokens and incorporate staking.

    According to Grayscale, while purchasing shares does not constitute direct ownership of SUI, the product is structured to offer a cost-efficient and accessible way for investors to gain exposure to the token.

    The Bank of New York Mellon will act as the trust’s transfer agent and administrator. Coinbase, Inc. will serve as prime broker, while Coinbase Custody Trust Company will function as custodian.

    Investors can purchase shares only in creation blocks of 10,000 units or more.

    Despite the ETF debut, retail demand for Sui remains muted. Futures Open Interest has slipped to $512 million on Wednesday from $554 million on Sunday, signaling limited appetite for new positions. The stagnation suggests traders remain unconvinced about the token’s ability to sustain a meaningful recovery, opting instead to scale back exposure.

    Technical outlook: Sui’s downtrend remains intact

    Sui is trading around $0.95, still capped below the declining 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $1.28, maintaining a bearish medium-term outlook. The 100-day EMA at $1.58 and the 200-day EMA at $2.02 are also trending lower, continuing to limit recovery attempts.

    On the daily chart, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits at 36, below the neutral 50 level, signaling persistent weakness. A sustained pickup in buying pressure could help improve momentum. However, if the RSI drifts further into oversold territory, the decline may accelerate toward support near $0.78 — in line with the February 6 low.

    A decisive break above descending trendline resistance would create scope for a move toward the 100-day EMA at $1.58. Conversely, failure to extend any rebound would leave the broader downtrend firmly in control.

    Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram has turned positive and is gradually expanding, showing the MACD line above the signal line near the zero threshold — an early sign of strengthening momentum. The Parabolic SAR, positioned at $0.86 below the current price, also suggests a tentative stabilization attempt.

    Sources: John Isige

  • The US Dollar Index (DXY) consolidates around 97.70 near a one-week high, with the broader bullish outlook remaining intact.

    The US Dollar Index (DXY) is taking a breather after climbing to a more than one-week high in the previous session, trading in a tight range around 97.70 during Thursday’s Asian session and holding steady on the day.

    Minutes from the Federal Reserve’s January meeting showed policymakers split over the timing and need for further rate cuts, given lingering inflation concerns. While some officials suggested additional easing could be appropriate if inflation cools as projected, others warned that cutting rates too soon might jeopardize the Fed’s 2% target. The relatively less dovish tone has helped curb expectations for aggressive policy easing and continues to lend support to the US dollar.

    The upbeat January Nonfarm Payrolls report released last week has also reinforced the case for a cautious approach from the Fed, further underpinning the greenback. In addition, reports that the US military could be ready to strike Iran as soon as this weekend are keeping geopolitical risks elevated, sustaining demand for the dollar’s safe-haven appeal.

    However, markets are still pricing in the likelihood of at least two Fed rate cuts in 2026. Softer US consumer inflation data released last Friday, combined with a generally positive risk tone, has limited stronger bullish momentum in the dollar. Attention now turns to Friday’s US Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index, which may offer fresh direction for the DXY.

    Sources: Haresh Menghani

  • Pound Sterling hovers near a four-week low against the US dollar, slipping below 1.3500 as expectations grow for a Bank of England rate cut.

    GBP/USD is struggling to stage a meaningful rebound after dropping to a four-week low in Thursday’s Asian session, with the pair hovering just below the 1.3500 psychological level and appearing vulnerable to further losses. It is currently consolidating declines recorded over the past three days within a tight range near weekly lows.

    The British pound remains under pressure amid growing expectations that the Bank of England will deliver a rate cut at its March meeting. Those bets were reinforced by weaker UK employment data and a slowdown in consumer inflation to its lowest level in nearly a year. Combined with a firm US dollar, this keeps the near-term bias tilted to the downside for GBP/USD.

    Meanwhile, minutes from the Federal Reserve’s January meeting revealed divisions among policymakers regarding the timing and need for additional rate cuts, given persistent inflation concerns. While some officials signaled that easing could be appropriate if inflation continues to cool, others warned that premature cuts might jeopardize the Fed’s 2% target. The relatively less dovish tone has helped underpin the US dollar.

    Geopolitical tensions also remain in focus, with reports suggesting the US military could be ready to strike Iran as soon as this weekend. Such risks have supported safe-haven demand for the greenback, allowing it to hold onto recent gains and reinforcing the case for an extension of the pair’s weekly downtrend. Any attempted recovery in GBP/USD may therefore attract fresh selling interest.

    Traders now turn to Thursday’s US data releases, including weekly initial jobless claims, the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index, and pending home sales. Speeches from key FOMC members are also due later in the North American session, though attention will ultimately center on Friday’s US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index for clearer policy direction.

    Sources: Haresh Menghani

  • Gold hovers around $5,000 an ounce amid geopolitical tensions, while Fed minutes limit further gains.

    Gold prices were largely steady in Asian trade on Thursday, following a surge of more than 2% in the previous session. Momentum was restrained by thin Lunar New Year holiday liquidity, while investors weighed ongoing geopolitical tensions and mixed signals from the Federal Reserve.

    Spot gold edged down 0.1% to $4,971.55 an ounce as of 20:51 ET (01:51 GMT), while U.S. gold futures fell 0.4% to $4,991.59.

    The precious metal rallied 2.1% on Wednesday, briefly climbing above the $5,000-an-ounce mark and reclaiming most of its earlier weekly losses. However, subdued trading volumes across several major Asian markets amplified short-term volatility.

    Geopolitical uncertainty continued to underpin demand for bullion. Market participants tracked rising friction between the United States and Iran, including concerns over security in the Strait of Hormuz and stalled nuclear negotiations. Limited headway in Russia-Ukraine peace talks also sustained broader risk aversion, supporting safe-haven flows into gold.

    On the policy front, sentiment turned more cautious after minutes from the Federal Reserve’s latest meeting revealed differing views among officials on the interest-rate trajectory. Some policymakers warned that persistently high inflation could warrant further tightening, while others signaled scope for rate cuts later this year.

    Expectations that U.S. rates may stay higher for longer bolstered the dollar and Treasury yields, creating headwinds for non-yielding gold after its sharp rally. The U.S. Dollar Index was flat after climbing 0.6% overnight in response to the Fed minutes.

    Gold typically faces pressure when borrowing costs rise, as higher yields raise the opportunity cost of holding the metal. Investors are now focused on Friday’s U.S. personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index data — the Fed’s preferred inflation measure — for clearer direction on monetary policy.

    Sources: Ayushman Ojha

  • U.S. stock futures were little changed as uncertainty over the interest rate outlook lingered, with Walmart earnings in focus.

    U.S. stock index futures were largely unchanged Wednesday night after the minutes from the Federal Reserve’s January meeting delivered mixed signals on interest rates, adding to uncertainty about the longer-term policy path.

    Investors are now turning their attention to upcoming earnings from retail heavyweight Walmart Inc (NYSE:WMT) for fresh insight into the health of the U.S. economy.

    Markets were also pressured by rising geopolitical tensions involving Iran, as reports pointed to a stronger U.S. military presence in the Middle East despite continued talks between Tehran and Washington.

    As of 20:00 ET (01:00 GMT), S&P 500 Futures dipped slightly to 6,892.0, Nasdaq 100 Futures edged down nearly 0.1% to 24,942.75, and Dow Jones Futures slipped 0.1% to 49,685.0.

    Futures held steady after Wall Street posted gains in the regular session, driven mainly by an ongoing rebound in technology stocks and data showing resilience in the U.S. economy. However, caution surrounding the Fed’s outlook kept major indexes below their intraday peaks.

    Fed minutes reveal divisions on inflation and rates

    Minutes from the Fed’s January meeting showed officials unanimously agreed to keep interest rates steady at 3.50%–3.75%. Still, policymakers appeared divided over the next move. Several members warned that inflation could take longer than expected to return to the central bank’s 2% target.

    A number of officials also suggested that rate hikes could be considered if inflation remains elevated for an extended period — a tone that contrasts with market expectations for further easing this year.

    Artificial intelligence emerged as a key area of debate, with officials split on whether the rapidly expanding sector will ultimately fuel inflation or help contain it.

    Walmart earnings in focus

    Walmart Inc (NYSE:WMT) is scheduled to report fourth-quarter results on Thursday, with particular attention on its 2026 outlook, which may offer broader clues about U.S. consumer strength.

    According to Investing.com data, Walmart is expected to post earnings per share of $0.7269 on revenue of $190.4 billion.

    As the world’s largest retailer by valuation and a widely followed barometer of U.S. consumer spending, Walmart’s results come at a time when sticky inflation is showing signs of straining retail demand.

    Also due Thursday are U.S. December trade data and weekly jobless claims.

    Wall Street gains led by tech rebound

    Wall Street ended higher on Wednesday, led by technology stocks as the sector extended its recovery from recent declines.

    Still, both major indexes and tech shares retreated from session highs amid lingering concerns about the impact of artificial intelligence. Worries over AI-driven disruption have recently weighed on software and logistics companies, while concerns about heavy AI-related capital spending have pressured firms exposed to data centers.

    The S&P 500 rose 0.6% to 6,881.32, the NASDAQ Composite gained 0.8% to 22,753.64, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average added 0.3% to 49,662.66.

    Sources: Ambar Warrick

  • CPI Breakdown: 5 Rate-Sensitive Stocks to Watch

    The inflation print investors had been bracing for came in cooler than expected.

    Friday’s January CPI showed headline inflation at 2.4%—below the 2.5% consensus forecast and the lowest annual reading since May 2025. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, eased to 2.5%, marking its softest level since April 2021. On a monthly basis, prices rose just 0.2%, the smallest increase since July.

    Markets reacted swiftly. Homebuilder stocks rallied sharply, small caps climbed 1.2%, and the 10-year Treasury yield slid to its lowest point since early December.

    My takeaway: the market may have just received the confirmation it was waiting for. And the most compelling opportunities from here likely aren’t the mega-cap tech leaders that have dominated performance, but rather rate-sensitive sectors that were punished under the “higher for longer” narrative and are now repricing for a potentially different 2026 backdrop.

    What the CPI Report Really Signals

    Shelter—by far the largest CPI component and the category that has stubbornly kept headline inflation elevated—rose only 0.2% in January, bringing the annual rate down to 3%. That’s a notable slowdown and perhaps the clearest indication yet that the housing inflation lag is beginning to unwind.

    Energy prices declined 1.5%, with gasoline tumbling 3.2% during the month. Food inflation held at 2.9% year over year—still somewhat elevated, but not alarming. Importantly, core goods prices were flat, helping to counter concerns that renewed tariffs would reignite goods inflation.

    “Headline CPI inflation was a touch softer than expected in January, delivering a welcome surprise to the downside at the beginning of the year,” said Bernard Yaros, lead economist at Oxford Economics. He added that tariff-related price pressures “are largely behind us.”

    Lindsay Rosner of Goldman Sachs Asset Management was even more direct: “Trust the groundhog. The Fed’s path to normalization cuts appears clearer now.”

    The timing is critical. A stronger-than-expected January jobs report—130,000 payrolls versus forecasts of 55,000—had pushed expectations for rate cuts further out, likely into the summer. This softer CPI reading shifts that outlook. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg now anticipate as much as 100 basis points of easing this year, with the first cut potentially arriving in June—or even March if disinflation continues.

    Why Rate-Sensitive Stocks Stand Out

    One key dynamic investors often overlook is that by the time the Federal Reserve actually begins cutting rates, much of the upside in rate-sensitive sectors has already played out. Markets tend to price in policy shifts well in advance.

    Friday’s CPI data appeared to give institutional investors the confidence to begin reallocating toward sectors poised to benefit from lower yields. The equal-weight version of the S&P 500 and the Russell 2000 both climbed 1.2%, notably outperforming the traditional cap-weighted S&P 500, which was little changed.

    That divergence is often viewed as a textbook signal of sector rotation—away from mega-cap dominance and toward more rate-sensitive, economically cyclical areas of the market.

    Capital is rotating down the market-cap ladder and into economically sensitive groups. Three segments stand out most clearly: homebuilders, REITs, and small caps.

    How to Position

    D.R. Horton (DHI)

    Closing Friday at $167.78, DHI is arguably the purest expression of the housing-affordability theme. The largest U.S. homebuilder by volume posted solid fiscal Q1 results in January, with revenue of $6.89 billion (ahead of $6.59 billion estimates) and EPS of $2.03 (vs. $1.93 expected).

    At roughly 15.3x trailing earnings, the stock trades at a notable discount to the broader market. Beyond the rate backdrop, there’s also a policy angle: the Trump administration’s reported “Trump Homes” initiative has involved direct engagement with builders around affordability measures—potentially creating a dual tailwind of lower mortgage rates and regulatory support.

    The median analyst price target is $170, with UBS as high as $195—suggesting upside potential of roughly 16%.

    Lennar (LEN)

    Trading at $122.28, Lennar offers a slightly different profile as the second-largest U.S. builder. Its “land-light” model—optioning land instead of holding it outright—reduces balance-sheet risk and positions it well for a rate-cutting cycle.

    The stock has rebounded about 40% from its April 2025 lows but remains below its 2024 peak. With fiscal Q1 earnings due in late March, improving mortgage application trends could serve as a near-term catalyst if rates continue to ease.

    SPDR S&P Homebuilders ETF (XHB)

    At $121.36, XHB is up nearly 18% year-to-date and recently marked a fresh 52-week high of $123.13. As an equal-weighted ETF, it offers diversified exposure across the housing ecosystem—not just large builders, but also building products manufacturers, home improvement retailers, and construction suppliers.

    For investors who prefer sector exposure over single-stock risk, XHB provides a balanced approach.

    Vanguard Real Estate ETF (VNQ)

    Trading near $94.59—close to its 52-week high—VNQ provides broad exposure to the REIT space, one of the most rate-sensitive areas of the market. The ETF holds over 150 REITs across healthcare, industrial, data center, and retail subsectors.

    Its largest holdings include Welltower, Prologis, and American Tower.

    With an average analyst target near $100.81, implied upside sits around 8%, in addition to a dividend yield of roughly 3.6%. After significant underperformance during the rate-hiking cycle, REITs are positioned to benefit mechanically as yields decline.

    iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM)

    At approximately $263, IWM tracks small-cap equities—arguably the most interest-rate-sensitive segment of the equity market. Smaller firms tend to carry more floating-rate debt and are disproportionately affected by elevated borrowing costs. That dynamic can reverse sharply when policy eases.

    IWM surged 1.6% on Friday’s CPI release alone. With its 52-week high of $271.60 within reach, sustained rate declines could drive a prolonged catch-up rally in small caps.

    The Big Picture

    If inflation continues to moderate and rate-cut expectations firm, the leadership baton may continue shifting away from mega-cap growth and toward housing, real estate, and smaller domestically oriented companies. Markets typically front-run the policy cycle—and this rotation suggests that repositioning may already be underway.

    The Bear Case (and Why It May Be Overstated)

    There are valid reasons for caution. Fox Business pointed out that January’s CPI could carry a downward bias tied to last fall’s government shutdown. During that period, the Bureau of Labor Statistics missed portions of October data collection and relied on a “carry-forward” methodology that may influence inflation readings into spring 2026. In short, the 2.4% headline figure could be somewhat understated.

    There’s also the Federal Reserve itself. Policymakers are not signaling urgency. Oxford Economics continues to project cuts in June and December rather than March. Meanwhile, although the labor market is cooling—annual benchmark revisions show 2025 job growth was the weakest since 2003 outside recessionary periods—it is far from collapsing. Jerome Powell has consistently emphasized the need for a sustained disinflation trend, not a single favorable report.

    The Counterargument

    Even if the Fed waits until June, markets won’t. Yields have already declined meaningfully. Mortgage rates are edging lower. And sectors that trade on rate expectations—rather than the actual fed funds rate—are beginning to reprice now. By the time the first official cut arrives, much of the move in rate-sensitive equities could already be behind us.

    What to Watch

    Three near-term catalysts will likely shape the next phase:

    1. Fed Minutes (Feb. 18): The release of the latest policy meeting minutes could shift expectations quickly. Any dovish commentary on inflation progress or labor-market softness may pull forward rate-cut pricing.
    2. Walmart Q4 Earnings (Feb. 19): As the largest U.S. retailer—now with a market cap above $1 trillion and up 13% year-to-date—Walmart’s guidance will offer real-time insight into consumer spending trends. If easing inflation is translating into stronger purchasing power, that reinforces the soft-landing narrative.
    3. PCE Price Index (Later This Month): The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge will be pivotal. Confirmation of CPI’s cooling trend would likely solidify expectations for a June cut and intensify debate around a possible March move—potentially fueling the next leg higher in rate-sensitive stocks.

    Bottom Line

    The inflation backdrop has shifted in a way that favors investors. The opportunity isn’t complex—but it does require stepping away from the mega-cap tech trade that has dominated for the past two years and leaning into sectors positioned to benefit most from falling yields.

    Sources: Jaachi Mbachu

  • S&P 500: Close Below 6,780 Signals a 60% Chance the Rally Has Ended

    The Elliott Wave (EW) framework seeks to measure and interpret investor sentiment, which unfolds in recognizable wave patterns. These waves can span extremely short periods—such as minutes—or stretch across decades and even centuries. At its core, the pattern reflects a “three steps forward, two steps back” progression. Because this structure repeats across multiple timeframes, it is considered fractal in nature.

    Given that markets are non-linear, stochastic, and probabilistic, Elliott Wave analysis does not predict certainties but instead identifies the most probable path forward—so long as key price levels remain intact. If those levels are breached—such as a downside break signaling a potential top—the outlook shifts, providing a clear framework for adjusting positions to protect profits or limit losses.

    Turning to the S&P 500, we have been monitoring an advance labeled green Wave 5, forming what appears to be an overlapping ending diagonal (ED) since the November 2025 low (green Wave 4). As illustrated in Figure 1, we first identified this developing structure in mid-December and have been tracking its progression closely to assess how the pattern ultimately resolves.

    Figure 1. Intermediate-term Elliott Wave count for the S&P 500 (SPX).

    An ending diagonal is made up of five overlapping waves—here labeled gray Wave i through v. Importantly, each of those gray waves unfolds as its own three-wave structure. Three-wave patterns are notoriously difficult to forecast, and the current sideways action in the index reflects that overlapping, indecisive character. (See Figure 2.)

    At present, the S&P 500 is trading near the same levels seen in late October. The 6,985 area has been tested ten times (red arrows), while support around 6,780 has held on four occasions (green arrows). This repeated interaction with resistance and support suggests a developing range.

    Range-bound conditions tend to frustrate traders because the absence of a clear directional trend makes forecasting more challenging. From a symmetry standpoint, an upside breakout projects toward approximately 7,190 (6,985 + 6,985 − 6,780), highlighted by the green box. Conversely, a breakdown below support would imply a downside target near 6,575 (6,780 − 6,985 + 6,780), marked by the red box.

    With today’s price action, the bulls appear to be on the brink. However, if the index manages to close higher, a positive divergence could form on the daily RSI(5) (green arrow), signaling that downside momentum may be fading and giving way to emerging upside strength.

    Figure 2. The S&P 500 since October 2025 has largely traded within a defined range.

    As noted earlier, Elliott Wave analysis outlines the most probable path forward—provided key price levels remain intact. Once those levels are breached, the outlook shifts, giving traders a clear signal to protect gains or limit losses.

    In this case, the pivotal level is the November low at 6,521. A decisive break beneath that threshold would signal that the ending diagonal has completed and that a larger corrective phase—black Wave 4 in Figure 1—is underway, with a preferred target zone between 5,500 and 6,125, ideally toward the upper end of that range.

    For now, the focus remains on 6,780. If the bulls can defend that level—our third warning threshold—we can still allow for a final gray Wave v advance toward roughly 7,120–7,190, potentially extending into the April turn window. However, a daily close below 6,780 raises the probability to about 60% that the broader uptrend has already topped.

    Should support fail, attention quickly shifts to 6,575 as the next downside level to monitor.

    Sources: Arnout ter Schure

  • U.S. stock futures tick down as the tech rebound loses steam; investors look ahead to the Fed minutes.

    U.S. stock index futures slipped modestly on Tuesday night as a fragile rebound in technology shares showed signs of strain, with investors remaining cautious ahead of a wave of economic data and Federal Reserve signals.

    Futures pulled back following a mildly upbeat session on Wall Street, where tech stocks attempted to bounce from recent declines. The recovery, however, was uneven, as lingering concerns over AI-driven disruptions continued to cloud sentiment in the sector.

    By 19:55 ET (00:55 GMT), S&P 500 futures were down 0.1% at 6,851.50, Nasdaq 100 futures fell 0.2% to 24,721.0, and Dow Jones futures slipped 0.1% to 49,553.0.

    Economic data, Fed minutes in focus

    Attention now turns to several key economic releases and the minutes from the Fed’s January meeting, due Wednesday afternoon. Investors are looking for greater clarity on the central bank’s interest rate outlook after policymakers kept rates steady last month and signaled ongoing caution over persistent inflation and softening labor market conditions.

    January industrial production figures are scheduled for Wednesday, followed by December’s PCE price index on Friday — the Fed’s preferred inflation measure and a key input into its longer-term rate projections.

    Uncertainty surrounding the Fed has weighed on markets in recent weeks, particularly after President Donald Trump’s nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Fed Chair was interpreted as a less dovish shift in leadership.

    Nvidia, Meta pare gains; AMD cuts losses

    NVIDIA and Meta Platforms gave back some after-hours gains but still rose about 0.6% each after announcing a multi-year partnership to expand AI infrastructure, with Nvidia set to supply millions of chips to Meta.

    Rival AMD, which had dropped as much as 4% following the announcement, reduced its losses to trade roughly 2% lower.

    Technology stocks remain sensitive after weeks of declines fueled by concerns about AI-related disruption — especially within software — as well as skepticism over elevated AI spending and the sector’s long-term growth outlook.

    Wall Street posts modest gains

    Major indexes ended Tuesday slightly higher, supported by a patchy tech rebound and strength in financial stocks. The S&P 500 rose 0.1% to 6,843.22, the Nasdaq Composite added 0.1% to 22,578.38, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.07% to 49,533.19.

    While some dip-buying helped tech shares recover modestly, heavyweight names including Microsoft, Tesla, Alphabet, and Oracle extended last week’s declines.

    Markets also drew limited support from reports of progress in U.S.-Iran nuclear discussions, easing some concerns about escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.

    Sources: Ambar Warrick

  • U.S.- Iran discussions loom while Palo Alto Networks prepares to report — market movers

    U.S. stock futures edge lower

    U.S. stock futures drifted near the flatline Tuesday as investors braced for a wave of economic data and corporate earnings in a holiday-shortened week.

    As of 03:04 ET, Dow futures were down 26 points (0.1%), S&P 500 futures slipped 11 points (0.2%), and Nasdaq 100 futures dropped 99 points (0.4%). Wall Street’s main indexes were closed Monday for a public holiday.

    Markets ended Friday mixed, with investors weighing the broader impact of new artificial intelligence models and questioning whether heavy AI infrastructure spending will generate strong returns for mega-cap tech firms. At the same time, cooler-than-expected U.S. consumer price data for January fueled expectations that the Federal Reserve could bring forward its next interest rate cut after pausing its easing cycle last month. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite edged down 0.2%, while the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average posted gains.

    Crude prices steady ahead of U.S.-Iran negotiations

    In commodities, Brent crude ticked lower ahead of planned talks between the U.S. and Iran in Geneva over Tehran’s nuclear enrichment program. A firmer dollar, ahead of key economic releases and signals from the Fed, also weighed on oil prices. Brent for April delivery fell 0.7% to $68.13 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate futures rose 0.6% to $63.11, with the move partly influenced by Monday’s U.S. market holiday.

    U.S. and Iranian officials are scheduled to meet in Switzerland on Tuesday amid elevated tensions in the Middle East, as Washington increases its regional military presence. President Donald Trump has repeatedly warned of potential military action if Iran declines a U.S.-backed agreement.

    Trading activity was subdued across Asia due to Lunar New Year holidays in China, Hong Kong, Taiwan, South Korea, and Singapore.

    Gold declines

    Gold prices moved lower Tuesday, with silver also retreating, as traders stayed cautious ahead of a slate of U.S. economic data due this week.

    At 03:09 ET, spot gold fell 1.4% to $4,919.72 an ounce, while April gold futures dropped 2.2% to $4,941.74. Spot silver slid 2.0% to $75.0925 per ounce, whereas platinum edged up 0.2% to $2,024.79.

    Precious metals have been volatile in recent weeks, posting sharp swings and remaining well below their late-January highs.

    Investor focus is shifting to upcoming U.S. economic releases, along with minutes from the January meeting of the Federal Reserve, when policymakers kept interest rates unchanged at 3.5% to 3.75%.

    U.S. industrial production figures are scheduled for release on Wednesday, followed by Friday’s PCE price index report — one of the Fed’s key measures of inflation.

    Palo Alto Networks earnings ahead

    Attention is also turning to results from Palo Alto Networks, due after U.S. markets close Tuesday, which could offer further insight into the outlook for tech firms grappling with rising competition from newly launched AI models.

    The California-based cybersecurity group raised its full-year revenue and profit guidance in November, pointing to strong demand for its digital security solutions amid growing online threats.

    Palo Alto also unveiled a $3.35 billion acquisition of cloud management and monitoring firm Chronosphere, saying it plans to fold the business into its Cortex AgentiX platform. The integration is designed to allow Palo Alto’s AI agents to leverage Chronosphere’s data to identify performance bottlenecks and pinpoint root causes more effectively.

    Together with a separate agreement to acquire identity security specialist CyberArk Software, the Chronosphere transaction is slated to be finalized in the second half of Palo Alto’s fiscal 2026.

    Nikkei extends slide

    Japan’s benchmark Nikkei 225 slipped again, adding to Monday’s losses after data showed the country’s economy grew far less than expected in the fourth quarter.

    Official figures revealed that gross domestic product expanded at an annualized rate of 0.2% in the October–December period — well below forecasts of 1.6%. Still, the reading marked a rebound from the prior quarter, when the world’s fourth-largest economy contracted by 2.6%.

    The weak data highlights the economic hurdles facing Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi following her sweeping election victory earlier this month. While she appears to have secured a mandate to implement stimulus measures aimed at boosting growth, her government must contend with persistent cost-of-living pressures that continue to dampen domestic demand.

    Adding to the complexity is the stance of the Bank of Japan, where policymakers are working to address stubborn inflation and yen weakness. Officials have indicated they intend to continue raising interest rates after years of ultra-loose monetary policy.

  • Core inflation (excluding shelter) edges higher, signaling that tariff-related risks still persist.

    One of the most significant macroeconomic trends of recent decades has been the sharp decline in labor’s share of income. As David Hay notes, the rise of populism in the US mirrors the long expansion in corporate profit margins — essentially the flip side of a prolonged downturn in labor’s share.

    This shift was largely driven by favorable demographics and accelerating globalization. However, both forces now appear to be reversing. On the demographic front, Axios recently highlighted that older Americans are increasingly powering economic growth — a “gray-shaped” dynamic rather than the previously discussed K-shaped recovery.

    Meanwhile, the inflationary cost of deglobalization may only be beginning to surface. According to Brean Capital, core CPI excluding used vehicles and shelter has ticked higher, with the three-month annualized rate climbing to 2.9% from 1.1% in December. This suggests tariff-related pressures may still be lingering, complicating hopes for a smooth return to the Fed’s 2% inflation target.

    Financial markets are already reacting to these evolving macro conditions. As Callum Thomas observes, gold has been the best-performing asset class of the 2020s so far, while bonds have lagged significantly — raising questions about how the rest of the decade will unfold.

    Leadership within equities is also shifting. Research from Daily Chartbook indicates that the “Magnificent Seven” peaked relative to the energy sector in December 2025, matching the same relative level seen in October 2020 — just before the Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund embarked on a 250% rally over the following two years.

    So far this year, energy stands out as the stock market’s top-performing sector. According to Rob Thummel, the sector delivers what investors increasingly value: strong free cash flow, rising dividends, significant share buybacks, inflation hedging characteristics, and tangible asset exposure.

    Echoing this thematic rotation, Goldman Sachs suggests the market may be entering what one seasoned client calls the “revenge of the dinosaurs” phase — a resurgence of traditional, capital-intensive industries in an era marked by structural inflation pressures and shifting global dynamics.

    Sources: Jesse Felder

  • A pivotal week of UK data begins as investors focus on the upcoming Bank of England rate decision.

    The UK faces a packed week of economic releases, with key labor market and inflation data likely to shape expectations for the upcoming Bank of England policy meeting. Investors are watching closely for clearer indications on employment trends and price pressures.

    Tuesday’s January employment report is forecast to show further cooling in the jobs market, alongside softer annual wage growth. Should these patterns persist into March, the case for a rate cut by the Bank of England next month would strengthen.

    On Wednesday, January inflation data will be published. Headline CPI is expected to edge lower, reflecting volatile airfare pricing, easing food costs, and the fading effects of last year’s private school tax changes. However, core services inflation is projected to remain relatively steady.

    Political uncertainty around Prime Minister Keir Starmer has eased somewhat, although betting markets still assign roughly a 70% chance that he could step down before the end of June.

    Analysts at ING note that sterling tends to weaken when concerns about Starmer’s leadership resurface. Coupled with their dovish outlook for the Bank of England, ING continues to favor EUR/GBP, maintaining a target of 0.88.

    Sources: Maria Ponnezhath

  • Key data releases and corporate earnings are due this week, while U.S.–Iran negotiations also influence market direction.

    Investors are preparing for a shortened trading week packed with fresh economic data and major corporate earnings. Meanwhile, oil prices are moving sideways as the U.S. and Iran get set for another round of nuclear negotiations in Switzerland. Reports suggest Warner Bros. Discovery may revisit takeover discussions with Paramount Skydance, while both gold and Bitcoin are edging lower.

    U.S. markets closed Monday

    U.S. stock exchanges are shut Monday for a holiday, but attention later in the week will shift to key economic releases and a busy earnings calendar.

    Wall Street ended Friday on a mixed note. Data showing U.S. inflation rose less than expected in January strengthened expectations that the Federal Reserve could begin cutting interest rates as early as June. Earlier, however, a strong labor market report had fueled speculation that the Fed — which reduced rates several times in 2025 — might delay further easing until the latter half of the year.

    The Nasdaq Composite remained pressured, reflecting persistent concerns about disruption in the tech and communications sectors from emerging artificial intelligence models. Investors are also questioning when heavy AI infrastructure spending by mega-cap companies will start generating meaningful returns.

    Focus now turns to Friday’s release of the December personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, along with a preliminary reading of fourth-quarter U.S. GDP. Earnings reports this week include results from Walmart, Palo Alto Networks, Analog Devices, and Booking Holdings.

    U.S.- Iran talks resume

    The U.S. and Iran are set to hold a second round of discussions in Switzerland regarding Tehran’s nuclear program, following renewed talks earlier this month.

    The diplomatic efforts come amid heightened tensions. Washington has deployed a second aircraft carrier to the Middle East and signaled it is prepared for prolonged military action if negotiations collapse. U.S. President Donald Trump has warned Tehran to accept a deal or face further military consequences.

    Iranian officials said over the weekend they are open to compromising on their nuclear activities in exchange for relief from stringent U.S. sanctions, adding that the next move rests with Washington.

    Analysts at ING noted that significant geopolitical risk remains priced into markets due to uncertainty around how the situation unfolds.

    Oil prices were largely steady in European trading Monday, with holiday closures in the U.S. and China dampening activity. Weak Japanese growth data also raised concerns about slowing demand. Brent crude for April hovered near $67.72 per barrel.

    Warner Bros. considers renewed talks

    Reports indicate a new development in the takeover saga involving Warner Bros. Discovery.

    According to Bloomberg, the company is weighing whether to reopen negotiations with Paramount Skydance after David Ellison’s studio group enhanced its hostile bid. Board members are reportedly evaluating whether Paramount’s proposal is more attractive than a competing offer from Netflix.

    Last week, Paramount pledged to increase the cash component for each quarter a deal is not finalized in 2026 and to cover any penalties Warner Bros. would incur for exiting its current agreement with Netflix. However, it did not raise its base offer of $30 per share.

    Gold retreats

    Gold prices slipped below key levels in European trade as the U.S. dollar stabilized following inflation data. Precious metals have been volatile in recent weeks, with both gold and silver remaining well below their late-January highs.

    Spot gold fell 0.9% to $4,998.69 per ounce, while April gold futures declined 0.6% to $5,018.69. Despite recent losses, safe-haven demand linked to U.S.-Iran tensions and prior dollar weakness had supported prices last week.

    Bitcoin declines

    Bitcoin extended its downturn after four consecutive weeks of steep losses. The cryptocurrency briefly approached $70,000 over the weekend before retreating 3.1% to $68,624.6. It has now erased roughly half its value since reaching a record near $126,000 in October.

    Separately, Strategy — the largest corporate holder of Bitcoin — said it could still meet its debt obligations even if Bitcoin were to fall to $8,000. The company holds 714,644 Bitcoin, funded through a combination of equity issuance and long-term debt.

    Sources: Scott Kanowsky

  • Oil prices remain stable while attention centers on US-Iran geopolitical risks.

    Oil prices moved sideways in Asian trading on Monday, as attention centered on renewed diplomatic engagement between the U.S. and Iran, with investors wary of possible supply disruptions in the Middle East.

    Trading activity remained subdued due to public holidays in China and the U.S., while weak Japanese growth figures added to worries about slowing demand. Brent crude for April delivery slipped 0.2% to $67.65 per barrel by 21:15 ET (02:15 GMT).

    U.S.– Iran nuclear talks to resume

    The U.S. and Iran are set to hold a second round of discussions in Switzerland this week regarding Tehran’s nuclear program, following the restart of negotiations earlier in February. However, diplomatic efforts coincided with Washington deploying a second aircraft carrier to the Middle East and signaling readiness for extended military action should talks collapse.

    President Donald Trump reiterated warnings that Iran must agree to a deal or risk further military measures. Over the weekend, Iranian officials indicated a willingness to make concessions on their nuclear activities in exchange for relief from tough U.S. sanctions, adding that the next move rests with Washington.

    Tensions between the two countries have recently supported oil prices, as traders factored in a higher geopolitical risk premium amid fears of renewed conflict that could disrupt Iranian oil output.

    OPEC+ considering renewed output increases

    At the same time, some of oil’s geopolitical premium was tempered by a Reuters report suggesting that OPEC+ intends to restart production hikes from April. Higher output would enable member countries to capitalize on recent price gains, though increased supply could weigh on prices over the longer term.

    The group is scheduled to meet on March 1.

    Oil markets were pressured throughout 2025 by concerns of excess supply in 2026. Although OPEC+ gradually raised production last year, it paused further increases in December due to persistent oversupply worries.

    Nonetheless, crude prices climbed to a six-month high in early 2026 amid escalating Middle East tensions, while signs of global economic resilience fueled expectations that demand would stay firm.

    Sources: Ambar Warrick

  • Gold holds intraday losses as Fed cut bets pressure USD.

    Gold starts the week under pressure, weighed down by a slight rebound in the US Dollar and improved market sentiment. Even so, ongoing geopolitical tensions—particularly ahead of the upcoming US-Iran talks—could offer support to the safe-haven metal. At the same time, expectations that the Federal Reserve will deliver additional rate cuts may restrain the Dollar and help cushion gold’s downside.

    During early European trading on Monday, Gold (XAU/USD) stays subdued but has bounced off its intraday low to hover near the key $5,000 psychological level. A mix of supportive factors suggests caution for traders considering aggressive short positions or anticipating a deeper decline.

    A modest uptick in the USD, coupled with a broadly upbeat risk mood, is putting mild pressure on bullion. However, geopolitical risks remain elevated ahead of the second round of US-Iran nuclear negotiations. The US has deployed another aircraft carrier to the region and signaled readiness for a prolonged military response if talks collapse. In turn, Iran’s Revolutionary Guards have warned of retaliation against US bases in the event of strikes. These tensions could underpin gold prices.

    Meanwhile, strong and sustained USD gains appear limited due to dovish Fed expectations, which tend to favor the non-yielding precious metal. Although last week’s robust Nonfarm Payrolls report initially supported the Dollar, softer US inflation data released Friday revived bets that the Fed could begin cutting rates as soon as June. Headline CPI rose 0.2% and core CPI increased 0.3% in the latest reading, reinforcing expectations of further policy easing and potentially limiting gold’s losses.

    Additionally, lighter trading conditions due to the US Presidents Day holiday may discourage traders from taking bold directional positions in XAU/USD. Upcoming remarks from Fed officials could influence both the Dollar and gold, but attention will center on Wednesday’s FOMC meeting minutes for clearer signals on the rate-cut outlook. Later in the week, global flash PMI data on Friday may provide fresh trading opportunities.

    XAU/USD 1-hour chart

    Gold is rejected at the 100-hour SMA resistance.

    XAU/USD’s failure to sustain gains above the 100-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) from Friday’s rally continues to favor the bears. The pair remains below this downward-sloping indicator near $5,028.40, which is limiting upside attempts and maintaining a negative intraday outlook. Meanwhile, the MACD has slipped beneath its signal line into negative territory, with an expanding bearish histogram highlighting growing downside momentum. The RSI sits at 45, in neutral territory but trending lower, in line with the softer bias.

    As long as XAU/USD trades below the falling 100-period SMA, pressure is likely to persist, with the negative MACD setup pointing to ongoing seller dominance. A stronger recovery would require the MACD to cross back above its signal line and the RSI to move above 50, a shift that would reduce bearish pressure and open the door for a corrective rebound.

    Sources: Haresh Menghani

  • Bitcoin steadies after gaining nearly 4%, yet remains on track for a fourth straight weekly decline.

    Bitcoin snapped a four-session slide on Friday, climbing nearly 4%, though it remained on course for its first four-week losing streak since November 2025. The leading cryptocurrency was up 3.7% at $68,776.1 by 17:15 ET (22:15 GMT), after dropping close to $65,000 in the prior session.

    Bitcoin pressured by tech slump as U.S. inflation eases.

    While Friday’s rebound trimmed some weekly losses, Bitcoin was still headed for a roughly 0.6% decline, struggling to build lasting upside momentum after bouncing from earlier lows and drifting back toward last week’s $60,000 support zone.

    Risk appetite has been fragile amid a prolonged selloff in technology stocks, driven by renewed concerns that artificial intelligence could disrupt traditional software and office-service business models. Those fears resurfaced on Thursday as investors questioned how automation and emerging AI tools might erode established revenue streams.

    At the same time, fresh U.S. inflation data showed price pressures eased more than anticipated in January. According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, headline CPI rose 2.4% year-over-year, down from 2.7% in December, while core CPI increased 2.5%, matching forecasts.

    On a monthly basis, headline CPI gained 0.2% and core CPI 0.3%, with the softer headline figure boosting expectations that the Federal Reserve could move toward policy easing. However, strong labor market data earlier in the week—highlighting solid payroll growth and a lower unemployment rate—had dampened hopes for near-term rate cuts.

    Dessislava Ianeva of Nexo Dispatch noted that crypto markets appear to be stabilizing after the softer CPI reading, even as ETF outflows continue, with positioning data suggesting lower leverage and consolidation rather than a fresh directional breakout.

    Crypto leaders appointed to CFTC Innovation Advisory Committee.

    Separately, the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission appointed several prominent crypto executives to its new Innovation Advisory Committee, including Brian Armstrong of Coinbase, Brad Garlinghouse of Ripple, Vladimir Tenev of Robinhood, and Hayden Adams of Uniswap Labs.

    The committee will advise on emerging technologies such as blockchain and AI in derivatives and crypto markets, as regulators clarify oversight of digital assets, with the CFTC expected to take a leading role.

    Elsewhere in the market, altcoins also advanced. Ethereum jumped 5.4% to $2,049.07, XRP rose 2.8% to $1.40, Solana surged 8.3%, Cardano gained 4.1%, and Dogecoin added 4.7%.

    Sources: Anuron Mitra

  • Austan Goolsbee said rates may fall if services inflation eases.

    Austan Goolsbee said in a Friday interview with Yahoo Finance that while interest rates are likely to decline further, any additional cuts will depend on continued progress in bringing down services inflation.

    He described the latest CPI report as mixed, with both positive signals and lingering concerns, noting that services inflation remains elevated and above target. Goolsbee expressed hope that the peak effects of tariffs have passed and pointed to strong January employment data as evidence of a broadly stable labor market with only modest cooling. Although he believes rates could be reduced further, he stressed the need for clearer improvement in inflation before accelerating cuts, warning that persistently high services inflation is a risk.

    He added that the U.S. consumer remains the economy’s strongest pillar and should stay resilient if the job market holds steady and inflation eases. If inflation returns to 2%, he said, the Fed would have room to implement several more rate cuts.

    Sources: Joshua Gibson

  • Why the January 2026 CPI Paints a Distorted Picture: How the Government Shutdown Skewed the Data

    A few months ago, a government shutdown led to a missed CPI release because the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) lacked sufficient data to calculate the October 2025 figure. The bigger issue, however, was methodological: when compiling the November index, the BLS was effectively required to assume that prices in several major categories—especially rents—were unchanged in October. This created an artificial drop in year-over-year inflation.

    While some of that distortion has already begun to reverse, a more significant rebound is expected in a few months when the Owners’ Equivalent Rent (OER) survey rotation triggers a sharp offsetting increase—precisely six months after the initial dip. Until that adjustment plays out, inflation data will remain hard to interpret, and the annual comparisons will understate true price pressures. So claims that the latest report shows the smallest yearly increase in core inflation since 2021, suggesting the Federal Reserve is near its target, are misleading.

    In reality, core year-over-year inflation is roughly 0.25%–0.3% higher than reported. Markets for CPI fixings already anticipate headline inflation rising to about 2.82% in four months—not because of energy prices, but due to this statistical catch-up.

    January is typically a challenging month for inflation data anyway, as businesses often offer discounts in December before implementing annual price hikes in January. Because these adjustments are irregular, they are difficult to seasonally adjust, making January surprises common. This time, consensus forecasts called for a 0.27% month-over-month rise in headline CPI and 0.31% in core, with some estimates—such as from Barclays—as high as 0.39% for core. Much of the speculation centered on whether remaining tariff-related price increases would be passed through at the start of the year. Ultimately, they were not. The actual figures came in at +0.17% for headline and +0.30% for core.

    The weaker headline reading was largely due to gasoline pricing dynamics. Although gas prices increased over the course of January, the monthly average was still lower than December’s average, because prices had fallen sharply in December. Since the BLS calculates CPI based on average monthly prices rather than end-of-month levels, this produced a softer headline figure.

    Core inflation, meanwhile, appeared close to target at first glance: the 2.5% year-over-year rate is the lowest since March 2021. Yet the 0.30% monthly increase was the third-highest in the past year and translates to an annualized pace of 3.6%. That hardly signals a smooth return to 2% inflation—raising questions about whether it is truly “mission accomplished” for the Fed.

    Core inflation was also somewhat flattered by a sharp 1.84% month-over-month decline in used car prices. In reality, used car prices did rise in January, but by less than the typical seasonal pattern, which translated into a sizable seasonally adjusted drop and created a noticeable drag on the core figure. (That said, it’s important not to dismiss components simply because they don’t align with the broader narrative.) Overall, core goods inflation slowed to 1.1% year over year from 1.4%, while core services edged down to 2.9% from 3.0%.

    Although core goods inflation declined more than expected due to the sharp move in used cars, some moderation isn’t surprising. The real issue isn’t whether core goods will reaccelerate to 3–4%, but whether it remains in positive territory or slips back into the persistent deflation that characterized the sector for many years. That distinction matters, even if core goods make up only about 20% of the CPI basket. Until recently, the narrative centered on tariffs; going forward, it may shift toward onshoring. The decades-long trend of goods deflation—driven by offshoring production to low-wage countries—may not reassert itself if manufacturing activity continues to migrate back. That’s the broader theme to monitor, though it’s not the main takeaway from January 2026’s data.

    On autos specifically, new car prices posted a modest increase. It’s worth considering how changes in sales composition might evolve now that electric vehicles are no longer being actively promoted by the executive branch. Traditional gasoline-powered cars tend to be cheaper upfront, so if buyers shift back toward them—absent tax incentives for EVs—the average transaction price could decline. However, it’s unclear how significantly overall sales patterns will change, or how production strategies will adjust now that automakers may feel less pressure to meet EV quotas. It’s also uncertain how granular the Bureau of Labor Statistics survey is in accounting for shifts in fleet composition. If there is any measurable impact on CPI, it would likely be slightly negative—and probably modest in size.

    As for rents, Owners’ Equivalent Rent (OER) rose 0.22% month over month, down from 0.31% previously, while Rent of Primary Residence increased 0.25%, slightly below last month’s 0.27%. The month-to-month trend in OER shows a clear deceleration—though notably, it omits the artificial zero recorded in October due to the earlier data disruption.

    While the slowdown is evident, my model suggests the pace should now be stabilizing around this level rather than continuing to decline sharply. In other words, rents are cooling, but likely nearing a plateau. That isn’t the defining story of January 2026—but it may well become one of the central inflation themes for the rest of 2026.

    Medicinal drug prices slipped 0.15% month over month. Some observers had anticipated a much larger decline, partly due to efforts by the Trump Administration to push manufacturers to align U.S. drug prices more closely with those abroad. So far, however, no clear downward trend is evident. A potentially more consequential development is the Trump RX initiative, aimed at increasing pricing transparency and reducing the role of intermediaries in the highly opaque pharmaceutical distribution chain—long dominated by three major wholesalers and three large pharmacy benefit managers.

    If successful, it could meaningfully reduce out-of-pocket drug costs for consumers. That said, when medications are paid for by insurers rather than directly by households, the impact does not show up straightforwardly in the CPI, appearing only indirectly—an accounting nuance that complicates interpretation. In short, consumer drug prices may decline, but the timing and visibility of that effect in CPI data remain uncertain.

    The most encouraging element of the report was the continued slowdown in core services excluding rents—often referred to as “supercore” inflation—which eased further even as airfares jumped 6.5% on the month.

    Gotcha. The apparent improvement in “supercore” inflation is another illusion created by the missing October data, which flatters the year-over-year comparison. On a month-over-month basis, core services ex-rents actually surged 0.59% (seasonally adjusted)—the largest increase in a year.

    Even so, the broader trend may still be one of gradual cooling, particularly as median wage growth continues to decelerate. Admittedly, that data is also somewhat noisy at the moment. Still, the gap between median wage growth and median inflation remains around 1%, suggesting real income growth is positive, even if inflation progress is bumpier than headline figures imply.

    There are tentative signs that wage growth’s downward drift may be stabilizing. If so, that would naturally limit how quickly supercore inflation can cool. At the same time, brewing cost pressures in insurance markets are likely to surface over the next six months. Still, none of that defines January 2026.

    The real story this month is that inflation data remain clouded by the government-shutdown gap. The missing October observations continue to flatter year-over-year comparisons, overstating the degree of progress. That statistical quirk makes it easier for the Administration to claim victory, even though underlying inflation does not appear to be cleanly converging back to target.

    Assuming the Federal Reserve recognizes these distortions, the policy outlook seems relatively straightforward. Core inflation—abstracting from the shutdown gap—appears to be running near 3.5%, labor market data have surprised to the upside, and the current Fed leadership has shown little inclination to accommodate political pressure. Under those conditions, there is scant reason to expect a near-term adjustment in overnight rates; if anything, the argument for tightening may be stronger than for easing.

    To be fair, rents continue to decelerate even after adjusting for the October distortion, though my model suggests that slowdown is unlikely to persist much further. Even if it does, a return to outright housing deflation seems improbable. Moderation in supercore inflation is encouraging, but probably insufficient to deliver the degree of cooling the Fed would require. Core goods inflation also looks to have peaked; the open question is whether it settles into low positive territory or slips back into deflation.

    Taken together, my modeling suggests that median inflation around 3.5% (excluding the shutdown effect) may represent something close to a new equilibrium. It’s not unreasonable to see constructive signals in the recent data, but neither do they justify expectations of imminent easing. If disinflation trends persist and leadership dynamics shift—potentially with someone like Kevin Warsh assuming the chair—the door to rate cuts later in the year could open.

    But that is not January 2026’s story.

    Sources: Michael Ashton

  • Asia stocks dip after Wall Street tech selloff, but still eye solid weekly gains.

    Asian equities retreated on Friday, following a decline in U.S. technology stocks overnight as fresh concerns about stretched artificial intelligence valuations weighed on investor sentiment. Despite the pullback, regional markets remained on track for solid weekly gains after a strong rally earlier in the week fueled by AI enthusiasm and upbeat corporate earnings.

    On Nasdaq Composite, shares fell as investors reassessed elevated AI-related valuations, pressuring semiconductor and growth stocks across Asia. Meanwhile, U.S. stock index futures were mostly flat by late evening trading (22:04 ET / 03:04 GMT).

    KOSPI climbed to a new all-time high and is on track to post a weekly gain of about 9%.

    In South Korea, the KOSPI rose 0.5% to a fresh record of 5,558.82, bucking the broader regional weakness and heading for an impressive weekly gain of nearly 9%, driven by major chipmakers. Samsung Electronics climbed almost 15% this week on optimism surrounding its HBM4 high-bandwidth memory rollout and expanding edge AI prospects, while SK Hynix was poised for a roughly 6% weekly advance.

    Japan’s Nikkei 225 slipped 0.7% after reaching record highs above 58,000 in the prior session but remained on course for a weekly rise of about 6%, supported by renewed trade optimism following the election victory of Sanae Takaichi. The broader TOPIX fell 1% on Friday, though it was still set for a weekly gain of around 4%.

    Australian shares were poised for a weekly advance, supported by strong earnings from major banks.

    Elsewhere, Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 dropped 1.3% on the day but remained on track for a 3% weekly increase, supported by strong bank earnings. Singapore’s Straits Times Index fell 1%, while futures linked to India’s Nifty 50 were little changed.

    Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index declined 2% on Friday and was poised to finish the week flat, diverging from the broader regional trend. In mainland China, the CSI 300 slipped 0.5% and the Shanghai Composite fell 0.7%, though both were still set for modest weekly gains of around 1%.

    Investors were also looking ahead to upcoming U.S. consumer price index data for further guidance on the Federal Reserve’s rate outlook, after stronger-than-expected U.S. employment figures earlier in the week reduced expectations for near-term interest rate cuts.

    Sources: Ayushman Ojha

  • US: NFP rebound reinforces expectations of a gradual recovery – Standard Chartered

    Standard Chartered analysts Steve Englander and Dan Pan note that the latest US Nonfarm Payrolls report delivered a stronger-than-expected rebound in hiring, with job growth accelerating and the unemployment rate declining.

    Although substantial downward benchmark revisions were made to prior data, they believe the latest figures signal a gradual labour-market recovery extending into 2025 and 2026.

    NFP strength suggests continued stabilization

    The January employment report surprised to the upside, exceeding nearly all forecasts and indicating renewed momentum in the labour market.

    Faster job creation, a lower unemployment rate, and a rise in the employment-to-population ratio all point to improving labour conditions toward late 2025 and into 2026, despite significant downward revisions to historical data.

    While health care and social assistance remained the primary contributors to job growth, other sectors are beginning to show early signs of recovery.

    That said, uncertainties remain regarding the durability of this improvement. The analysts caution that one month of stronger data is not enough to eliminate broader labour-market concerns, particularly amid weak sentiment indicators and potential disruptions related to artificial intelligence.

    Sources: Fxstreet

  • USD: Concerns over Fed independence limit reaction to jobs data – Commerzbank

    Commerzbank’s Antje Praefcke suggests that the delayed January U.S. jobs report is unlikely to significantly move the Dollar, with Nonfarm Payrolls projected at about 70,000 and the unemployment rate holding at 4.4%. She notes that investors are likely to pay closer attention to the outlook for Federal Reserve policy under Kevin Warsh and to ongoing concerns about the Fed’s independence, which she views as the main medium-term risk facing the Dollar.

    Employment report takes a back seat to Fed-related risks

    “I’m not convinced this will trigger any significant moves in the US dollar, for two reasons.”

    “In that context, a reading of roughly 70,000 – or even 60,000 – should not unsettle markets, as it would still point to a labor market that is softening but not collapsing. As such, there is little justification for making substantial changes to interest rate expectations tied to the Fed’s employment mandate.”

    “While key data releases will likely continue to drive short-term swings in the dollar, the overriding issue remains the Fed’s independence, which is effectively the sword of Damocles hanging over the currency.”

    “Ultimately, the future independence of the Fed is the central question and the greatest risk for the greenback. Clarity on this matter is unlikely before spring.”

    Sources: Fxstreet

  • US House defeats bid to block challenges to Trump tariffs.

    The U.S. House of Representatives on Tuesday narrowly defeated a push by Republican leaders to prevent lawmakers from challenging President Donald Trump’s tariffs, voting 217-214. The outcome could allow Democrats to move forward with efforts to overturn the trade measures.

    Three Republicans sided with all 214 Democrats in opposing the proposal, which sought to bar any tariff-related challenges until July 31. The restriction had been folded into a procedural resolution meant to advance debate on three separate, unrelated bills.

    The setback marks a notable blow to House Speaker Mike Johnson, who oversees a razor-thin 218-214 Republican majority, leaving virtually no margin for dissent on party-line votes. With Democrats united in opposition, Johnson can afford to lose no more than one Republican on any given measure.

    In the wake of the vote, Democrats could push for a House vote as soon as Wednesday to end Trump’s reliance on a national security emergency declaration to justify tariffs on Canada and other key U.S. allies. They have also drafted additional resolutions aimed at blocking tariffs on Mexico and several other nations.

    Republicans had enforced procedural rules since March of last year to shield the tariffs from legislative challenges, extending them through January. However, the latest extension lapsed amid internal GOP resistance, as some members raised concerns about the economic burden on American households and businesses reliant on global trade.

    The vote came as Supreme Court Justice Ketanji Brown Jackson signaled that the Court will need additional time to rule on the legality of Trump’s tariff policies.

    Sources: Investing

  • Yield Curve Control and the Conclusion of the Treasury Inversion

    It has become increasingly clear that Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent favored Kevin Warsh for the role. Warsh has advocated for tighter coordination between the Federal Reserve and the Treasury Department, particularly in managing the yield curve and conducting open market operations. The Treasury yield curve is currently at its steepest level in four years, suggesting that Bessent has been effective in resolving the inversion that occurred under his predecessor, Janet Yellen. If Warsh is confirmed as the next Fed Chair, Bessent’s influence is likely to grow further—an important factor if the Fed aims to reduce interest rates.

    According to the Financial Times, some economists question Warsh’s belief that artificial intelligence will have a deflationary effect. Warsh argues that AI will spark “the most productivity-enhancing wave of our lifetimes—past, present and future,” boosting output and allowing the Fed to lower key rates without fueling inflation. Such remarks are expected to draw significant attention during his Senate confirmation hearing.

    On Tuesday, the Commerce Department reported that retail sales were flat in December. However, November’s figures were revised upward to a 0.6% increase, up from the previously reported 0.3%. Economists had anticipated a 0.4% rise in December, making the latest data disappointing. Because of the federal government shutdown, the report was released a month late, and the substantial upward revision to November’s data has somewhat diminished the report’s impact. Following the release, Treasury yields fell, increasing the likelihood of another Fed rate cut.

    Meanwhile, after a month-long pursuit, the U.S. Navy seized its eighth Venezuelan crude oil tanker in the Indian Ocean. The vessel, Aquila II, had attempted to bypass the U.S. blockade. The Navy’s intensified crackdown on so-called “shadow tankers” is expected to worry countries like Iran and Russia, which have also relied on similar methods to transport oil despite sanctions.

    In diplomatic developments, U.S. and Iranian officials met in Oman to discuss dismantling Iran’s nuclear program. Washington is pressing Tehran to halt uranium enrichment, limit its ballistic missile program, and end support for regional proxy groups. Iran, however, has stated it is only willing to negotiate over its nuclear activities. If talks collapse, the U.S. could carry out another military strike, which explains its significant naval buildup in the region. Notably, Iran seized two oil tankers before the negotiations but later described the discussions as “positive.”

    Sources: Louis Navellier

  • Trump warns Canada over new Ontario–Michigan bridge, demands 50% stake.

    U.S. President Donald Trump said Monday he would immediately seek talks with Canada to secure compensation for a bridge under construction between Ontario and Michigan, insisting the U.S. should own at least 50% of it. In a Truth Social post, Trump claimed the project moved forward without U.S. approval and accused the Obama administration of allowing Canada to bypass “Buy American” requirements. He also criticized Canada’s efforts to expand trade with China, making unsubstantiated remarks in the process.

    Canada’s Chamber of Commerce warned that threatening to block bridges would be counterproductive, noting that the Trump administration itself had backed the project as a priority in 2017. The Gordie Howe International Bridge, funded entirely by the Canadian government at an estimated cost of C$6.4 billion, is being built by the Windsor-Detroit Bridge Authority and is expected to open in early 2026. Trump’s comments come as U.S.–Canada relations remain strained amid trade tensions and Canada’s pivot toward China.

    Sources: Ambar Warrick

  • Week Ahead: Jobs and CPI Data May Reset March Fed Expectations

    As a polar vortex brings arctic conditions across the U.S., the economic calendar is set to heat up. The week ahead features two of the most consequential data releases for shaping Federal Reserve policy expectations: the January employment report and the Consumer Price Index (CPI).

    Owing to recent government shutdowns, the January employment report (Wednesday) and CPI release (Friday) will be published unusually close together. The labor report is particularly significant, as January data typically incorporates annual revisions to employment figures, raising the possibility of notable downward adjustments for the year through March 2025.

    A key reference point will be the Federal Reserve’s own assessment of potential overstatement in jobs growth. In December, Fed Chair Jerome Powell noted that internal research suggested official figures may have overstated monthly job gains by as much as 60,000 since April. Given that reported job growth averaged just under 40,000 per month over that span, the scope of upcoming revisions could have meaningful implications for the FOMC’s March policy decision.

    The week also features remarks from several Fed officials, including Governors Christopher Waller (Monday), Stephen Miran (Monday and Thursday), and Michelle Bowman (Wednesday). Among voting Fed presidents this year, Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack and Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan are both scheduled to speak on Tuesday.

    Markets will also be watching price action on Wall Street following last week’s record close for the Dow Jones Industrial Average above 50,000. The ongoing AI-led shakeout among major technology stocks bears close scrutiny, as does the renewed “old economy” rotation bringing previously sidelined sectors—such as oil and gas, chemicals, transportation, and regional banks—back into focus. Adding to the cross-currents is gold’s continued rally, occurring alongside a sharp pullback in bitcoin.

    The following data releases carry the greatest potential to move markets and shape the Federal Reserve’s assessment of whether further rate cuts are warranted:

    Employment

    We expect nonfarm payrolls to rise by 60,000 in January, following a 50,000 increase in December (see chart). Markets will be closely focused on the size and direction of revisions to prior data. A meaningful downside surprise could increase pressure on Chair Powell to consider a rate cut later this month, even though we do not believe monetary policy can directly address the underlying weaknesses in the labor market.

    CPI 

    Markets are seeking further confirmation that inflation continued to ease in January. December’s 2.6% year-over-year reading matched a four-year low in core CPI inflation (see chart). The Cleveland Fed’s Inflation Nowcasting model currently projects a 0.22% month-over-month increase in core inflation, translating to a 2.45% annual rate. Additional insight on inflation pressures will come from the Q4 2025 Employment Cost Index and December import and export prices, both due Tuesday, as well as the New York Fed’s January inflation expectations survey on Monday.

    Retail sales

    Despite ongoing concerns about the cost of living and a fragile labor market, household spending continues to show resilience. Retail sales in December, due Tuesday, are expected to post another solid gain following November’s 0.6% month-over-month increase. Looking ahead, larger annual tax refunds should help sustain consumer spending momentum. Reflecting this strength, forward earnings for the S&P 500 Retail Composite climbed to a record high during the week of February 6 (see chart).

    Jobless claims

    Initial jobless claims due Thursday will draw heightened scrutiny as investors look to determine whether last week’s jump to 231,000 was driven by severe winter storms rather than a broader acceleration in layoffs. The balance of evidence points to a weather-related distortion, which would likely reassure the Fed that the labor market remains on relatively stable footing.

    Sources: Ed Yardeni

  • Top Weekly Picks: Buy Cisco, Sell Moderna

    • Key U.S. economic data—including the jobs report, CPI inflation, retail sales—and another round of corporate earnings will be in focus this week.
    • Cisco is expected to post strong earnings along with upbeat guidance, positioning the stock as a high-conviction potential outperformer in the near term.
    • By contrast, Moderna faces pressure from declining revenue and anticipated losses, leaving the stock vulnerable to downside risk this week.

    Wall Street stocks surged on Friday, posting their strongest gains in months as the Dow Jones Industrial Average finished above the landmark 50,000 level for the first time.

    The rally came after three consecutive sessions of declines driven by artificial intelligence-related concerns, with software stocks particularly pressured on fears that AI could intensify competition across the sector.

    For the week, the benchmark S&P 500 and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite edged lower by 0.1% and 1.8%, respectively, while the 30-stock Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 2.5% and the small-cap Russell 2000 advanced 1.8%.

    Volatility may remain elevated in the days ahead as investors weigh the outlook for economic growth, inflation, interest rates, and corporate earnings.

    On the economic front, delayed December retail sales data is set for release on Tuesday. However, Wednesday’s postponed January U.S. jobs report could prove more influential amid mounting concerns over labor-market conditions. January CPI inflation data due on Friday will also be closely watched for further evidence on whether price pressures are truly easing.

    Earnings season also rolls on, with a busy slate of high-profile results due in the coming days. Notable reports include Coca-Cola, McDonald’s, Ford, Cisco, Robinhood, Coinbase, and Arista Networks, alongside key software names such as AppLovin, Shopify, and Datadog.

    Regardless of broader market direction, below I highlight one stock that is likely to attract buying interest and another that could face renewed downside pressure. Note that this view is strictly short term, covering the week ahead from Monday, February 9 through Friday, February 13.

    Stock To Buy: Cisco 

    Cisco’s upcoming earnings report is the key catalyst for the stock this week, with the risk–reward profile appearing skewed to the upside. CSCO is set to report fiscal second-quarter results after the market closes on Wednesday at 4:05 p.m. ET.

    Market expectations remain relatively modest, suggesting that even a small beat on revenue and earnings per share, coupled with steady or slightly optimistic guidance, could be enough to spark a post-earnings rally.

    Analyst sentiment has been notably constructive heading into the release. According to InvestingPro data, 14 of the last 16 EPS revisions have been upward, underscoring growing confidence in Cisco’s ongoing expansion.

    As a leading player in networking hardware, cybersecurity, and an increasingly important provider of AI infrastructure, Cisco is well positioned to capitalize on multiple tailwinds that could support a strong quarterly performance despite a mixed macroeconomic backdrop.

    Consensus forecasts call for adjusted earnings per share of $1.02, representing a 9% increase from a year earlier. Revenue is expected to rise 8% year over year to $15.1 billion, supported by AI-driven demand and solid product sales.

    Analysts see potential for longer-term upside from Cisco’s partnership with Nvidia to develop AI networking solutions for the enterprise market. Meanwhile, Cisco’s security segment underperformed in fiscal first quarter results despite the acquisition of Splunk, and investors will be watching closely for signs of a rebound in that business.

    Cisco’s shares have been on a strong run, notching a string of fresh 52-week highs in recent sessions. The stock closed at $84.82 on Friday, underscoring solid momentum heading into the earnings release.

    Valuation and sentiment also remain supportive. Cisco continues to trade at a reasonable earnings multiple relative to both the broader technology sector and its own historical averages, while offering an appealing dividend yield underpinned by robust free cash flow.

    Trade setup:

    • Entry: Near current levels (~$84–85)
    • Target: $90–$95 (potential upside of ~5.8%–10.8%)
    • Stop-loss: $80 (downside risk of ~5.8%)

    Stock To Sell: Moderna

    Moderna, meanwhile, faces a tougher setup this week as it heads into its fourth-quarter earnings release scheduled for before Friday’s opening bell at 6:35 a.m. ET. Options markets are pricing in a sharp post-earnings swing of around ±16%, underscoring the heightened risk of a downside surprise.

    After its blockbuster pandemic-era success with the mRNA COVID-19 vaccine, the biotech company has struggled with the transition from reliance on a single product to a broader—yet still largely unproven—development pipeline.

    Analyst sentiment has turned increasingly cautious ahead of the report, with consensus sales estimates cut by roughly 14%, reflecting growing concerns over Moderna’s near-term revenue outlook.

    Consensus expectations point to a sizable loss, with earnings per share projected at around –$2.62 on revenue of $662.8 million, representing a steep year-over-year decline of more than 30% from sales of $966 million.

    Moderna is grappling with slowing revenue growth and a lack of near-term catalysts to counter weakening demand, as vaccine sales continue to fade.

    At the same time, the company must maintain elevated spending on research, development, and manufacturing to advance a broad pipeline spanning respiratory viruses, oncology, and other therapeutic areas. This combination is weighing on near-term profitability and increasing pressure on cash burn.

    Moderna’s share price has started to lose momentum after a strong recent rally, ending Friday at $41.01. While the stock remains up 67.1% over the past three months and 21.1% in the last month, last week’s 7% decline points to waning upside traction.

    In a market increasingly favoring growth and AI-linked themes, high-beta biotech stocks like Moderna are vulnerable to rotation, particularly if earnings fall short or forward guidance disappoints.

    Trade setup:

    • Entry: Near current levels (~$40–41)
    • Target: $35 (potential gain of ~15%)
    • Stop-loss: $45 (risk of ~12.5%)

    Whether you’re a newer investor or an experienced trader, tools like InvestingPro can help uncover opportunities while managing risk in a challenging and fast-moving market environment.

    Sources: Jesse Cohen

  • Markets in Focus – S&P 500, EUR/USD, USD/CAD, USD/CHF, USD/MXN, DAX, USD/JPY, GBP/USD

    S&P 500

    The S&P 500 remains highly volatile, with last week seeing the index test the 7,000 mark and briefly dip below 6,800 before rebounding. Overall, the price action suggests the market is still trying to determine its next direction, which is understandable given that earnings season is underway.

    For now, the index continues to favor a buy-the-dip dynamic, with rebounds likely fueling further FOMO. A decisive move above 7,000 would likely open the door to further upside, although short-term choppiness is still to be expected.

    EUR/USD

    The euro traded in a choppy manner throughout the week as it tested the 1.18 level, an area that had previously acted as resistance. Last week’s price action formed a particularly ugly shooting star, leaving uncertainty about whether the euro has enough momentum to sustain an upside breakout.

    A move below the low of last week’s candle could open the door for a pullback toward the 1.16 level, effectively returning the pair to its prior consolidation range. While short-term price action is likely to remain noisy, the broader outlook is clouded by ongoing uncertainty around ECB policy and whether the Federal Reserve will move quickly enough on rate cuts to satisfy market expectations. Overall, I remain neutral on this pair.

    USD/CAD

    The US dollar strengthened against the Canadian dollar but once again ran into resistance near the 1.37 level. Price is hovering around the 200-week EMA, and last week’s hammer candle suggests buyers may attempt to drive the pair higher, though confirmation is still needed.

    From a technical perspective, this zone appears attractive for potential long positions, with the interest rate differential continuing to favor the US dollar. That said, this setup is better suited for short-term traders, as large or sustained moves are unlikely in the near term given the pair’s typically range-bound behavior.

    USD/CHF

    The US dollar has edged higher against the Swiss franc, pushing above the 0.78 level, a key psychological round number that many traders are closely monitoring. This pair is especially noteworthy given last week’s hammer formation and ongoing comments from the Swiss National Bank expressing discomfort with a strong franc.

    Should the SNB maintain this stance, intervention remains a possibility, which would likely weaken the franc and lift USD/CHF along with other CHF-denominated pairs. While the positive swap favors long positions, the move higher is likely to be uneven and challenging, so traders should be mindful of potential volatility.

    USD/MXN

    The US dollar has been highly volatile against the Mexican peso, with the 17.50 level continuing to act as resistance. For now, the 17.00 area below appears to be the most likely short-term target.

    From a longer-term perspective, there is substantial support beneath current levels, making a deeper breakdown uncertain. At the same time, the pair still offers an attractive carry trade, particularly for short-term participants. Given recent price action, this week is likely to remain as choppy as the last two, and significant moves seem unlikely.

    DAX

    The German DAX has maintained a bullish tone for most of the week but continues to face resistance near the 25,000 level. A decisive break above 25,000—ideally confirmed by a daily, if not weekly, close—would likely clear the way for further upside in the index.

    A Global Search for Support

    Over time, I expect that breakout to occur. This is not a market that lends itself well to short positions, as it is likely to receive ongoing support from the German government, which continues to inject significant spending into the economy. As a result, buying pullbacks in the DAX remains an attractive strategy.

    USD/JPY

    The US dollar has held up well against the Japanese yen this week, even in the wake of recent intervention efforts. The 158 level remains a major reference point on long-term charts, an area of significance that dates back to May 1990 and deserves close attention.

    Looking further ahead, a sustained break above the 163 level—where the monthly chart shows a substantial resistance zone—could eventually open the door to much higher levels, potentially even toward 250 yen over the longer term. While such a move is not expected in the near future, it reflects the broader outlook for the yen unless there is a meaningful shift in underlying conditions.

    GBP/USD

    The British pound was highly volatile throughout the week, with the 1.3750 level once again acting as notable resistance. A break below 1.35 would be a strongly bearish signal for GBP/USD and could potentially open the door for a move toward the 1.30 area.

    While it remains unclear whether the US dollar has definitively bottomed, it is beginning to show signs of attempting a base. If that proves to be the case, it could leave many traders positioned on the wrong side of the market.

    Sources: Christopher Lewis

  • Why fears of dollar debasement appear premature despite the recent hype

    Concerns that the U.S. dollar is heading into a phase of rapid debasement look exaggerated, despite ongoing longer-term headwinds. Although the currency has been volatile recently and briefly hit multi-year lows—reviving “Sell America” narratives—Bank of America says market evidence does not yet point to a structural shift away from U.S. assets.

    While BofA remains bearish on the dollar over the long run, it expects any depreciation to play out gradually through 2026 and 2027 rather than through an abrupt decline. Investor positioning and capital flow data show little sign of a coordinated move out of U.S. assets. Dollar risk premia have risen only modestly, and options markets indicate that short-dollar positioning is not meaningfully larger than it was three months ago.

    Cross-asset flows reinforce this view, with equity and bond data showing no substantial foreign capital flight from the U.S. Notably, there has been just one session this year in which both the dollar and U.S. equities sold off sharply at the same time—an outcome inconsistent with a broad debasement scenario.

    Instead, BofA suggests that increased currency hedging is the more likely adjustment. European investors may hedge their U.S. exposure more actively, which could place steady, incremental pressure on the dollar without triggering a disorderly selloff.

    Macro indicators also fail to signal rising debasement risks. Inflation expectations remain well anchored, and although fiscal concerns are widely discussed, they have not produced market stress indicative of eroding confidence in the dollar. Part of the expected dollar weakness may simply reflect improving conditions elsewhere, particularly in Europe, where stronger growth prospects, German fiscal stimulus, potential spillovers from Chinese stimulus, and longer-term structural factors such as higher defense spending and trade agreements could support the euro and other non-U.S. assets.

    Sources: Pratyush Thakur

  • Shifting Toward Consumer Staples as a Defensive Play in 2026

    The opening weeks of the year have underscored how rapidly investor sentiment can change. In early 2026, markets saw a clear rotation into consumer staples, a sector traditionally favored for its defensive characteristics. As technology stocks came under pressure from elevated valuations and growing doubts about the durability of the AI-driven rally, consumer staples emerged as a relative safe haven.

    The Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLP), a widely followed benchmark, climbed roughly 13% year-to-date through early February—one of its strongest starts in more than ten years. By contrast, technology shares fell by about 3% over the same period, reflecting a classic shift toward lower-risk assets.

    Why Investors Are Seeking Safety

    The drivers behind this rotation are varied but grounded in clear logic. After years of leadership fueled by AI enthusiasm and an extended period of low interest rates, technology entered 2026 with lofty expectations. Rising concerns over escalating AI capital expenditures, potential regulatory pressure, and a more normalized rate environment triggered a wave of profit-taking.

    At the same time, broader macro signals—including softening labor market conditions, pockets of persistent inflation, and heightened geopolitical risks—pushed investors toward more stable areas of the market. Consumer staples fit that role well. Demand for everyday necessities such as food, beverages, household goods, and tobacco alternatives remains steady, supporting reliable earnings, consistent dividend payouts, and lower overall volatility.

    This shift mirrors historical patterns in which periods of uncertainty or market broadening drive capital away from high-growth, cyclical sectors and into defensive ones. Amid broader market pullbacks this year, consumer staples have stood out as one of the few areas of relative strength, drawing significant inflows as investors reduce risk. The sector’s limited sensitivity to economic cycles—consumers continue to buy essentials like toothpaste, soap, and snacks regardless of conditions—offers a cushion when discretionary spending weakens.

    Consumer Staples Stocks Reaching Yearly Highs

    Established industry leaders have been at the forefront of this move, combining defensive stability with incremental growth drivers. Philip Morris International (NYSE: PM) has been a notable example, with shares posting solid gains in early 2026 following a strong fourth-quarter 2025 earnings report. The company’s ongoing shift toward smoke-free alternatives—such as IQOS heated tobacco products and Zyn nicotine pouches—has delivered robust volume growth, more than offsetting declines in traditional cigarette sales.

    Philip Morris exceeded Q4 expectations, reporting adjusted earnings per share of $1.70, up 9.7% year over year, alongside revenue growth of 6.8%. The stock currently holds a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold), reflecting stable near-term expectations. Consensus forecasts call for full-year 2026 EPS of roughly $8.34, representing nearly 11% annual growth, supported by strong pricing power and continued momentum in emerging markets.

    Coca-Cola (NYSE: KO) completes the list of standout performers, benefiting from its unmatched global brand presence in beverages. Continued volume growth in emerging markets, along with broader diversification into non-carbonated offerings, has helped sustain the company’s momentum. Coca-Cola’s attractive dividend yield and dependable payout profile make the stock particularly appealing in income-focused environments. Currently holding a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold), consensus estimates suggest a steady, incremental improvement in earnings per share.

    Bottom Line

    These sector leaders highlight the core appeal of consumer staples: dependable, recurring revenue from essential products; strong balance sheets that support consistent dividends—often in the 3–4% yield range; and modest growth driven by innovation or international expansion. Valuations across the sector remain reasonable relative to growth prospects, with many names trading at forward price-to-earnings multiples in the high teens to low 20s, well below the elevated valuations seen in much of the technology space.

    As recession concerns quietly build amid a softening labor market, consumer staples offer credible downside protection without materially compromising long-term total returns. For well-diversified portfolios, the sector serves as a stabilizing anchor—delivering steady performance in increasingly uncertain market conditions.

    Sources: Bryan Hayes

  • AI, Energy Security, and Rate Cuts Bolster the U.S. Growth Outlook

    The U.S. and Iran are holding talks in Oman today focused on dismantling Iran’s nuclear program. Washington is pushing Tehran to halt uranium enrichment, scale back its ballistic missile development, and withdraw support for regional proxy groups that contribute to instability in the Middle East. Iran, however, has stated it is only prepared to negotiate on nuclear-related issues. If discussions collapse, the risk of renewed U.S. military action rises, underscored by the significant U.S. naval presence in the region. That said, Iran recently seized two oil tankers ahead of the talks and later described the discussions as “positive.”

    Following the meeting, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said on state television that both sides could reach a framework for future negotiations if talks continue along the same lines. He emphasized that the dialogue remains limited strictly to nuclear matters, with no broader issues under consideration. Given Iran’s history of prolonging negotiations and the U.S. military buildup aimed at Iranian nuclear and defense assets, it remains to be seen how long Washington will tolerate a narrow scope of engagement.

    Meanwhile, despite some concerns on Wall Street about OpenAI’s momentum, activity in the data center sector continues to accelerate. Super Micro Computer (SMCI) reported a 123% year-over-year jump in fourth-quarter revenue to $12.7 billion, while earnings climbed to $0.69 per share. The company delivered a 22.1% revenue beat and a 40.8% earnings surprise, along with upbeat forward guidance. As one of Nvidia’s largest customers, Super Micro’s results suggest Nvidia could also deliver a strong upside surprise, even as analysts forecast robust growth of 66.7% in sales and 71.1% in earnings.

    AI-driven productivity gains are expected to continue supporting stronger GDP growth. The data center expansion shows no signs of slowing, underscoring the durability of the AI revolution. Nvidia’s upcoming Vera Rubin GPU—offering five times the performance and ten times the energy efficiency of the Blackwell architecture—is likely to trigger a multi-year AI hardware replacement cycle. At the same time, pricing for advanced chips and memory remains resilient, allowing AI demand to sustain strong profitability across the semiconductor ecosystem, including Nvidia (NVDA), Micron (MU), and Seagate Technology (STX).

    The U.S. economy is experiencing a powerful growth phase, with annual GDP growth of 5% potentially driven by an estimated $20 trillion in onshoring investments across data centers, semiconductors, pharmaceuticals, and automotive manufacturing. Energy independence gives the U.S. a structural advantage over global peers, as manufacturers can avoid tariffs by relocating production domestically. In addition, U.S. support for increased crude oil output in Venezuela should help keep global oil prices contained over the medium term.

    Overall, the U.S. continues to outperform globally in domestic growth. With Kevin Warsh nominated as the next Federal Reserve Chair, the U.S. dollar is expected to strengthen further. While AI is clearly enhancing productivity, it is also contributing to job displacement across corporate America. As a result, the Federal Reserve is likely to cut policy rates at least three times this year amid ongoing labor market concerns. These rate cuts should, in turn, help lift consumer confidence in the months ahead.

    Sources: Louis Navellier

  • BoJ’s Masu said further rate hikes are needed to complete policy normalization.

    BoJ board member Kazuyuki Masu said Japan has entered an inflation phase as policy normalization moves forward.

    Japan has shifted into an inflationary phase.

    • Must remain vigilant as yen weakness–driven inflation lifts overall and underlying prices.
    • BOJ is closely watching FX moves and their impact on the economy and prices.
    • BOJ is expected to keep raising rates if economic and price forecasts are realized.
    • Underlying inflation is still below 2% but is approaching that level.
    • Deflationary practices are being eliminated as Japan enters an inflationary phase.
    • Rates must be raised in a timely and appropriate manner to prevent underlying inflation from exceeding 2%.
    • Policy must remain cautious to avoid excessive hikes that could derail the nascent cycle of rising inflation and wages.
    • BOJ will closely assess market conditions and the future pace of bond purchases.
    • Particular attention is on processed food prices excluding rice as a key inflation indicator.
    • Inflation dynamics must be assessed to determine whether they are driven by supply alone or both supply and demand.
    • Japan’s real interest rate remains deeply negative.
    • The neutral rate is only one reference point for policy decisions.
    • As policy rates approach neutral, BOJ must more carefully examine prices, employment, and financial markets.
    • Further rate hikes are needed to complete policy normalization.

    Market reaction

    At the time of writing, USD/JPY is trading 0.28% lower on the day at 156.60.

    Sources: Lallalit Srijandorn

  • AI holds up a mirror to tech—and the reflection is unsettling

    Tech just suffered a selloff of a different kind. This was not about rates, recession fears, or a routine earnings disappointment. It was the market catching its own reflection in the AI mirror—and flinching.

    When confidence cracks, the Nasdaq does not rotate. It drops the floor. The S&P followed along, dutifully diversified in theory, while tech still steers the wheel.

    The trigger was AMD, but the message was broader. In a fully priced bull market, “good” results are not good enough when investors have already paid in advance for perfection. When expectations stretch into the stratosphere, even a strong quarter feels like a letdown. AMD was not punished for weakness—it was punished for failing to deliver magic commensurate with the valuation it carried.

    What followed was less about fundamentals than positioning. This was the market unwinding a narrative that had become too tidy, too crowded, too self-assured. When everyone leans the same way, even a minor wobble turns into a shove.

    And the shove traveled fast. Once the story lost its grip, selling turned indiscriminate. Yesterday’s AI champions were treated like stale trades. Hardware names sank alongside software darlings. Picks, shovels, and miners all landed in the same risk bucket as investors dumped exposure wholesale.

    This was never just a chip story. The real fault line runs through software—and it is psychological. The market is now entertaining a new fear: not that AI lifts all boats, but that it punctures the hulls of those that assumed they were unsinkable.

    Software cracked first because belief ran deepest there. It was the cleanest narrative in the market—AI as a quiet margin expander, a tailwind that boosted earnings without disrupting the underlying structure. That assumption is now being dismantled in real time.

    The uncomfortable inversion is coming into focus. The companies that digitized the fastest may also be the most exposed. AI is not arriving as a polite consultant. It is entering as a tireless shadow workforce—one that never negotiates, never sleeps, and learns faster than corporate hierarchies can adapt. And it writes code, too.

    That is why this moment feels like a break, not a revision. When markets stop debating how much something earns and start questioning why it exists, prices do not drift lower. They fracture.

    You can see it in the tape. This is not a careful repricing—it is an exit rush. One day the debate is about margins; the next it is about whether the product becomes a feature inside a larger model.

    Once that fear enters the room, it spreads quickly across anything tied to monetized knowledge work—data platforms, marketing software, legal tools, analytics, even media and advertising adjacencies. If AI does the work, who gets paid for it? That is the question markets are stress-testing in real time.

    For years, software earned its margins by controlling workflow—owning the screen, the process, the friction. Humans did the thinking; software rented them the tools and charged a recurring toll. Predictable. Scalable. Defensible. That doctrine is now under review.

    Bitcoin and gold sliding alongside tech is telling. When risk sentiment turns, speculative layers lose sponsorship first. It is not ideology—it is mechanics. When leverage gets pulled back, froth goes first.

    This does not mean tech is finished. It means tech is being tested.

    Every cycle follows the same arc: markets fall in love with innovation, price it as destiny, then recoil when destiny arrives with disruption and bills. AI is no longer just a growth story—it is a competitive weapon. That creates winners and losers, not a rising tide. The trade is shifting from owning the theme to owning the survivors.

    This is what a regime change looks like within a sector. Euphoria gives way to scrutiny. Momentum yields to forensic analysis. Markets stop paying for possibility and start paying for proof.

    Ironically, the most technologically advanced firms often feel the shock first—they sit closest to the blast radius. If your business automates knowledge work and a universal automation engine shows up, you do not get to pretend the rules stayed the same.

    Panic, of course, is rarely precise. Markets swing the hammer before identifying the nail. These moments tend to overshoot because fear moves faster than analysis.

    This looks less like the end of AI and more like a narrative reckoning. The market is re-evaluating who captures value, who loses the toll booth, and who gets displaced.

    AI is not killing tech.
    It is forcing tech to prove it has a moat—not just a story.

    When markets stop buying dreams, they start auditing business models.

    Sources: Stephen Innes

  • UK grocery inflation slows to 4.0%, the lowest level since April

    UK grocery inflation slowed to 4.0% in the four weeks ending January 25, marking its lowest level since April last year, according to figures released Tuesday by market researcher Worldpanel by Numerator.

    The reading eased from the 4.3% inflation rate reported in Worldpanel’s previous update, offering modest relief to households grappling with elevated food prices.

    The data also serves as an early signal of price pressures ahead of the UK’s official inflation release scheduled for February 18.

    Despite the moderation in inflation, Worldpanel noted that UK grocery sales increased 3.8% year on year in value terms over the four-week period. Adjusted for inflation, however, this translates into a decline in volumes, indicating that consumers are buying less even as overall spending rises.

    Sources: Investing

  • RBA raises rates by 25 bps as expected, flags persistent inflation risks

    The Reserve Bank of Australia raised its policy rate by 25 basis points on Tuesday, in line with expectations, and cautioned that inflation is likely to stay above target in the months ahead.

    The unanimous decision lifted the cash rate target to 3.85% from 3.65%, following a renewed uptick in inflation late last year that pushed underlying price pressures back above the RBA’s 2%–3% target range.

    The central bank said private demand remained resilient and domestic capacity constraints persisted, factors it expects will keep inflation elevated for some time. While some of the recent rise in inflation reflects temporary influences, the RBA noted that demand has been expanding faster than anticipated, capacity pressures are stronger than previously assessed, and labour market conditions remain tight.

    The RBA stopped short of signalling further rate increases, instead reaffirming its commitment to maintaining price stability and full employment, and said it would take whatever action it deems necessary to achieve those objectives.

    Sources: Ambar Warrick

  • JPM hikes gold price outlook on strong central bank and investor demand

    JPMorgan has lifted its year-end 2026 gold price forecast to $6,300 an ounce, pointing to sustained and strengthening demand from central banks and investors despite the recent bout of sharp price volatility.

    Gold and silver both saw steep pullbacks late last week after rapid rallies left prices overstretched, with the move partly driven by a rebound in the U.S. dollar. Even so, JPMorgan analysts said the broader environment continues to favor gold, arguing that the “longer-term rally momentum will remain intact” and that they remain “firmly bullish” over the medium term, supported by a structural diversification trend.

    A key factor behind the higher forecast is stronger-than-expected buying from the official sector. Central banks purchased around 230 tonnes of gold in the fourth quarter, taking total buying for 2025 to roughly 863 tonnes, even as prices moved above $4,000 an ounce. JPMorgan now expects about 800 tonnes of central bank demand in 2026, citing ongoing reserve diversification that still has room to run.

    Investor demand has also picked up, with analysts highlighting rising ETF holdings, solid physical bar and coin purchases, and broader portfolio allocations to gold as a hedge against macroeconomic and geopolitical risks.

    “Gold remains a dynamic, multi-faceted portfolio hedge, and investor demand has continued to exceed our previous expectations,” analysts led by Gregory Shearer wrote. “As a result, we now see sufficient demand from central banks and investors to push gold prices to $6,300 per ounce by the end of 2026.”

    While acknowledging the speed of the rally, the analysts dismissed concerns that prices are nearing unsustainable levels, noting that demand remains well above the historical threshold needed to keep the market tightening. “While the air gets thinner at higher price levels, we are not yet close to a point where the structural gold rally risks collapsing under its own weight,” they added.

    On silver, JPMorgan struck a more cautious tone following the metal’s sharp surge and subsequent pullback. Without central banks acting as consistent dip buyers, the analysts said they are “somewhat apprehensive” about the risk of a deeper near-term correction in silver relative to gold.

    Even so, they see a higher average price floor of around $75 to $80 an ounce, arguing that silver is unlikely to fully give up its recent gains. Over the longer term, JPMorgan expects higher prices to reshape fundamentals, gradually easing the supply-demand imbalance that underpinned silver’s recent rally.

    Sources: Vahid Karaahmetovic

  • Five major AI-driven analyst calls: Apple seen with more downside risk; ASML and AMAT receive upgrades

    Analyst says Nvidia sell-off has gone too far

    Morgan Stanley said the recent pullback in Nvidia shares appears disconnected from the company’s strong near-term fundamentals, noting that investors remain puzzled by the stock’s underperformance despite a “very robust AI environment.”

    Analyst Joseph Moore said his team was “somewhat surprised” by Nvidia’s year-to-date weakness following a soft finish to 2025. He added that investors frequently ask what factors drove the decline and how those pressures could dissipate in 2026.

    Moore said business checks remain “very strong and getting stronger,” while market optimism around upcoming earnings is building. He noted growing discussion of Nvidia’s earnings power exceeding $9 per share this year, well above the consensus estimate of $7.75, which he believes makes near-term upside “highly likely.”

    In his view, several concerns weighing on sentiment are exaggerated. Moore said AI beneficiaries are expanding as demand accelerates and supply constraints spread across the industry. He also addressed investor focus on financing risks tied to frontier AI model developers and Nvidia’s involvement, saying this will require some recalibration in how the market assesses the risk.

    Concerns about rising competition from custom ASICs and AMD persist, but Moore described them as overblown. Looking ahead, he highlighted Nvidia’s upcoming Vera Rubin platform as a key catalyst that should reinforce the company’s technology leadership and help alleviate momentum concerns.

    “Ultimately, we expect the stock to outperform from here,” Moore wrote, adding that while Nvidia still faces a “wall of worry,” it appears well positioned to move past it.

    Lynx warns Apple margins under renewed pressure as NAND prices jump

    Lynx Equity Strategy warned that Apple could be facing a deeper profitability squeeze than investors currently expect, arguing there is “further downside” to the stock even after its roughly 10% decline this year.

    The brokerage said channel checks point to rising memory costs, with Apple confronting a sharp increase in NAND flash prices after talks with long-time supplier Kioxia broke down. Lynx said tensions emerged after Apple secured lower long-term pricing that created a margin gap for Kioxia, potentially leading the supplier to ship below Apple’s projected demand.

    As a result, Apple has reportedly turned to Samsung to cover the shortfall. Without long-term supply agreements, Lynx said Samsung can charge prevailing market rates, which may be significantly higher. A Taiwan report cited by the firm suggested Samsung may have lifted NAND prices by as much as 100%, with Apple likely among the affected customers.

    Lynx also highlighted technical risks, noting that Apple’s flash controller is optimized for Kioxia’s NAND process and may not perform as effectively with Samsung’s chips, increasing the possibility of performance issues or product returns.

    “The Street is underestimating the impact,” Lynx said, warning that both Apple’s margins and its share price could remain under pressure in the coming period.

    Barclays upgrades ASML on record orders, sees further upside

    ASML shares moved higher earlier in the week after Barclays upgraded the stock to Overweight, pointing to record order growth, accelerating AI-driven demand and upside potential that it says the market has yet to fully reflect.

    Analyst Simon Coles said expectations were already elevated going into the results, but those hopes were exceeded as orders hit record levels, prompting significant upward revisions to forecasts. Barclays raised its price target to €1,500 from €1,200, arguing there is still “room for further upside” given what it views as conservative guidance despite improving fundamentals.

    ASML reported record order intake of €13.2 billion, almost double last year’s figure and well above market expectations. The company also increased its 2026 revenue outlook to a range of €34 billion to €39 billion, surpassing consensus estimates and improving on its prior outlook for largely flat growth versus 2025.

    In addition to the strong demand outlook, ASML announced plans to reduce its workforce by around 1,700 roles as part of a broader restructuring effort aimed at simplifying management structures while increasing investment in engineering capacity.

    Barclays said lithography demand linked to large-scale data center construction remains a key growth driver for ASML, while further upside could emerge from consumer AI adoption, humanoid robotics and a more resilient memory spending cycle.

    The bank also highlighted intensifying foundry competition as a particularly supportive factor. Analyst Simon Coles said increased rivalry is likely to spur higher capital investment, creating upside risk that should benefit ASML and the broader semiconductor capital equipment sector through 2027.

    Concerns around China were described as overstated. Coles noted that ASML’s guidance already assumes China revenue declines of more than 10% year over year at the start of 2026, but recent strength in imports suggests demand remains robust.

    Barclays now forecasts low-teens revenue growth for ASML in both 2026 and 2027, translating into mid- to high-teens earnings upgrades, with additional upside possible if AI investment and foundry spending accelerate beyond current expectations.

    Mizuho lifts Applied Materials on strengthening chip equipment demand

    Applied Materials was upgraded to Outperform from Neutral by Mizuho, which cited a sharp rebound in semiconductor capital spending and improving demand from foundry and logic customers.

    Analyst Vijay Rakesh raised the firm’s price target to $370 from $275, saying Applied Materials is positioned to benefit from a “meaningful acceleration” in wafer fab equipment (WFE) spending through 2027. Mizuho now forecasts WFE growth of 13% year over year in 2026, followed by 12% growth in 2027, marking a notable step-up from its prior outlook.

    With roughly 65% of revenue exposed to foundry and logic customers, Rakesh highlighted rising capital expenditures from TSMC and improving tool spending at Intel as key growth drivers. TSMC’s capital spending from 2026 to 2028 is expected to be significantly higher than in the 2023–25 period, with 2026 outlays alone projected to climb 32% to about $54 billion.

    Memory demand is also seen as supportive, with DRAM tied to high-bandwidth memory accounting for roughly 30% of Applied Materials’ revenue base. While China remains a headwind, with revenue from the region expected to decline 4% this year, Rakesh said growth elsewhere — representing about 70% of sales — is accelerating more rapidly.

    He added that AI-driven investment is pushing leading-edge development below the 2-nanometer node, and said the broader recovery in global WFE spending is creating “strong tailwinds” for equipment suppliers, underpinning the upgrade and higher earnings estimates for 2026 and 2027.

    BofA reiterates Snowflake as top software pick, says AI to accelerate growth

    Bank of America said Snowflake remains “one of the fastest-growing stories in software,” reaffirming its Buy rating and keeping the stock as a top pick within infrastructure software.

    Analyst Koji Ikeda said Snowflake is well positioned to benefit from accelerating enterprise investment in data analytics and artificial intelligence, given its role as a core cloud data platform. He said the key investor debate is whether Snowflake can sustain product revenue growth in the high-20% year over year range or even reaccelerate into the 30s — an outcome he believes is achievable.

    Ikeda pointed to Snowflake’s expanding product portfolio, strong AI-related demand and rising customer consumption as key growth drivers. “The blizzard is just starting to form around broad AI adoption, and we believe Snowflake will play a foundational role,” he wrote.

    BofA expects Snowflake’s growth to remain top-tier within infrastructure software, far outpacing peers growing at around 10%. The bank also raised its price target to $275, reflecting an updated valuation framework incorporating its revised growth outlook, risk assessment and peer multiple trends.

    Ikeda described Snowflake as increasingly becoming the “king of enterprise data in the cloud,” highlighting its OLAP data lakehouse architecture, which enables customers to scale compute and storage independently to optimize performance and costs.

    While acknowledging that the shares are not inexpensive — trading at a roughly 123% premium to peers — Ikeda said the valuation appears more reasonable on a growth-adjusted basis, where Snowflake trades in line with its peer group.

    Sources: Investing

  • Canada’s Conservative Party backs Poilievre, votes to retain him as leader

    Canada’s opposition Conservative Party has voted by a wide margin to keep Pierre Poilievre as leader following a mandatory leadership review triggered by its loss in the last federal election.

    At a party convention in Calgary on Saturday, Conservatives backed Poilievre with 87.4% of the vote, reaffirming his leadership after the party was defeated by the Liberals under Prime Minister Mark Carney in April.

    The result comes after a sharp political reversal. In January, the Conservatives were polling more than 20 points ahead of the Liberals, but momentum shifted after repeated remarks by U.S. President Donald Trump about Canada becoming the 51st U.S. state helped rally voters around Carney.

    Although Poilievre lost his own parliamentary seat in the election, he returned to the House of Commons after winning a by-election in August.

    Ahead of the vote, Ashton Arsenault, a former aide in Stephen Harper’s Conservative government, said Poilievre needed at least 75% support to clearly demonstrate confidence in his leadership. The final result exceeded that threshold comfortably, signaling unity within the party heading into the next election cycle.

    Meanwhile, public opinion remains mixed. Pollster Angus Reid reports Carney’s approval rating has climbed to 60%, the highest since he became Liberal leader. While about 80% of Conservative supporters back Poilievre, broader public sentiment is less favorable, with 58% of Canadians viewing him negatively.

    Sources: Reuters

  • Is a Recession Looming in the U.K.? BCA Research Offers Insight

    The U.K. economy is at risk of a “significant recession,” a scenario that could force the Bank of England into a far more aggressive easing cycle, according to BCA Research.

    In a research note, analysts led by Robert Timper said key indicators of U.K. economic growth continue to show weakness, with business sentiment and labor market data sending what they described as recession-like signals.

    They noted that although layoffs remain relatively contained for now, slowing profit growth increases the risk of deeper job cuts ahead.

    “The bottom line is that the U.K. labor market is deteriorating at a concerning pace and, in many respects, already appears recessionary,” the analysts wrote. “If incoming data fails to improve, labor market conditions could tip the U.K. economy into recession.”

    At the same time, wage growth has moderated and price pressures in the services sector have normalized, reinforcing expectations that underlying inflation will ease toward the Bank of England’s 2% target later this year.

    Against this backdrop, the BoE is expected to deliver rate cuts broadly in line with market pricing, totaling around 41 basis points this year. The central bank cut interest rates by 100 basis points in 2025.

    From an investment perspective, BCA Research said U.K. equities remain appealing despite domestic economic softness, supported by the prospect of lower borrowing costs, a weaker pound, and strong overseas revenue exposure. The firm favors U.K. stocks over Eurozone equities over the next three to six months.

    The analysts said U.K. equities remain attractively valued and have yet to show signs of being overbought.

    They added that energy markets could again provide support, noting that a potential collapse of Iran’s ruling regime could trigger what they described as a historic shock to global oil supply.

    Given the heavy weighting of oil and gas companies in major U.K. indexes, they said the broader U.K. market has historically outperformed Eurozone equities during periods of rising oil prices.

    Sources: Investing

  • Will the ECB react to the euro’s recent strength? Analysts asses

    The euro’s recent surge has brought renewed attention to the European Central Bank, though economists argue it is unlikely to prompt any near-term policy action.

    Last week, the single currency climbed to $1.20 against the U.S. dollar for the first time since mid-2021, marking an unusually swift move by historical standards. According to Capital Economics, the euro has strengthened by a similar scale over a 10-day period only a few times in the past decade, while its trade-weighted exchange rate has reached a record high.

    Even so, analysts expect the inflationary impact across the euro zone to remain modest. Capital Economics cited ECB sensitivity analysis showing that if the euro stabilizes at current levels, headline inflation next year would be roughly 0.1 percentage points lower than projected in the ECB’s December forecasts.

    While this slightly increases downside risks to inflation, the brokerage said it falls far short of the threshold that would justify foreign-exchange intervention on price-stability grounds.

    The ECB is likely to address the euro’s strength at its meeting next week, but concrete action appears improbable. Although the central bank has the authority to intervene in currency markets to prevent disorderly moves that could threaten price stability, Capital Economics noted that the euro would need to rise much further before such measures were considered. Even then, intervention through dollar purchases is viewed as highly unlikely.

    Historically, the ECB has stepped into currency markets only twice—once in late 2000 and again in March 2011—both times to support, rather than weaken, the euro. Those interventions were coordinated with other major central banks. Capital Economics added that a coordinated effort to push the euro lower now looks extremely unlikely, particularly given the U.S. administration’s preference for a weaker dollar.

    ECB officials have so far played down the recent appreciation. Vice President Luis de Guindos has previously described levels above $1.20 as “complicated,” while also calling the level itself “perfectly acceptable.” Meanwhile, Austria’s central bank governor has characterized the latest rise as “modest.”

    Capital Economics expects ECB President Christine Lagarde to reiterate that policymakers are closely monitoring exchange-rate developments, but not to actively try to talk the currency down.

    Although intervention is unlikely in the near term, prolonged euro strength could influence policy over time. Capital Economics said ECB analysis suggests that if the euro were to appreciate gradually to between $1.25 and $1.30 over the next three years, headline inflation in 2028 would be about 0.3 percentage points lower.

    Under such conditions, policymakers would be more inclined to respond through stronger verbal guidance and lower interest rates rather than direct currency market intervention.

    For now, economists say the euro’s rise largely reflects U.S. dollar weakness rather than stronger euro zone fundamentals, reducing the need for an immediate response. As a result, the ECB is expected to remain on the sidelines unless the appreciation becomes substantially larger and more persistent, according to Capital Economics.

    Sources: Investing

  • Japan’s Prime Minister highlights the benefits of a weak yen, even as the government takes steps to curb the currency’s decline.

    Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi highlighted the advantages of a weaker yen during a campaign speech, striking a note that contrasted with her finance ministry’s stance, which has kept all measures on the table to address excessive currency volatility.

    She later walked back her remarks, clarifying that she holds no particular preference regarding the yen’s direction.

    “Many people argue that the weak yen is a negative at the moment, but for exporters it represents a significant opportunity,” Takaichi said on Saturday, ahead of the snap election scheduled for February 8.

    “Whether in food exports or automobile sales, even with U.S. tariffs in place, the weaker yen has acted as a cushion. That support has been extremely valuable,” she added.

    Takaichi also said she aims to strengthen Japan’s economy against currency swings by encouraging greater domestic investment.

    FILE PHOTO: Japan’s Internal Affairs Minister Sanae Takaichi attends a news conference at Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s official residence in Tokyo, Japan September 11, 2019. REUTERS/Issei Kato/File Photo

    The yen has been trading near 18-month lows against the U.S. dollar, fuelling inflation and raising expectations of potential interest-rate increases by the central bank. Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama has repeatedly stated that authorities are prepared to step in to stabilise the currency if needed — comments widely interpreted by markets as a signal of possible intervention.

    In a post on X on Sunday, Takaichi reiterated that she does not support either a strong or weak yen.

    “I did not state that one is better or worse,” she wrote, adding that the government is closely watching financial markets and that, as prime minister, she will avoid making specific remarks on exchange-rate levels.

    “My intention was simply to say that we want to build an economic framework capable of withstanding exchange-rate volatility, not — as some reports have implied — to promote the advantages of a weak yen.”

    Former prime minister and finance minister Yoshihiko Noda, who co-leads the largest and newly formed opposition group, the Centrist Reform Alliance, said a weak yen is hurting households, according to Nikkei on Sunday.

    “Amid an excessive depreciation of the yen, no one feels comfortable when they look at their household finances,” Noda was quoted as saying. “The viewpoint of ordinary citizens is absent, which once again raises serious concerns for me.”

    The yen jumped after reports that the New York Federal Reserve had joined Japanese authorities in contacting banks to inquire about exchange rates for potential yen purchases — a move traders often view as a signal that intervention could be imminent.

    The currency’s prolonged slide, alongside a recent surge in Japanese government bond yields to record levels, underscores investor unease over the country’s stretched fiscal position.

    Takaichi is seeking voter approval for her push to revive inflation and reflate the economy.

    Sources: Reuters

  • Black swan events may surprise, but markets largely shrug them off

    During and in the aftermath of 9/11, Nassim Taleb—a Lebanese-born former options trader and quantitative analyst—published Fooled by Randomness. He later refined and formalized the idea in his 2007 book The Black Swan, drawing on the metaphor of the rare black swan, an anomaly among typically white birds.

    Taleb defined a Black Swan as an event that meets three criteria: first, it is an extreme outlier, often without historical precedent; second, it carries an immediate and profound impact; and third, it becomes explainable only in hindsight, after the event has occurred.

    Forty years ago tomorrow, on the morning of Tuesday, January 28, 1986, tens of millions of Americans watched live as the Space Shuttle Challenger lifted off—only to explode 73 seconds into flight, killing all seven crew members, including the widely admired teacher-astronaut Christa McAuliffe.

    The tragedy met all of Nassim Taleb’s criteria for a Black Swan event. First, it was unprecedented, marking the first fatal in-flight disaster involving a US spacecraft. Second, its impact was immediate: President Ronald Reagan postponed his State of the Union address scheduled for that evening. Third, the cause was only fully understood after the fact, when physicist Richard Feynman explained during televised hearings that the disaster resulted from O-ring failure in unusually cold conditions.

    One response that did not occur—then or in most Black Swan events—was a meaningful stock market selloff. Markets were largely indifferent. The S&P 500 rose on the day of the explosion and continued higher, gaining 2.6% for the week and 16.8% over the remainder of 1986. The Dow Jones Industrial Average also advanced, rising 1.2% on the day, 2.7% for the week, and 22.6% for the year.

    Another Black Swan touched Great Britain exactly fifty years earlier, when global stock markets closed on January 28, 1936, to mark the funeral of King George V. He was succeeded by Edward VIII, whose relationship with an American divorcée triggered a constitutional crisis that lasted much of the year. The turmoil ended with Edward’s abdication in favor of his younger brother, who became King George VI and later passed the crown to his daughter, Elizabeth II—the longest-reigning and arguably most popular British monarch—suggesting the succession ultimately resolved smoothly.

    Despite the political uncertainty, 1936 proved to be a strong year for markets during an otherwise bleak Depression-era decade, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average rising 25%.

    Across the past century, several other major Black Swan events have reshaped history, including the outbreak of World War I following the assassination in Sarajevo on June 28, 1914; Japan’s attack on Pearl Harbor on December 7, 1941; the assassination of President John F. Kennedy on November 22, 1963; and the September 11, 2001 attacks.

    History also shows a striking pattern in which US presidents elected in seven consecutive election years, spaced 20 years apart, died in office: William Henry Harrison (1840), Abraham Lincoln (1860), James Garfield (1880), William McKinley (1900), Warren Harding (1920), Franklin Roosevelt (1940), and John F. Kennedy (1960). One might argue that this grim sequence made the outcome seem almost “predictable.” The streak ended two decades later, when Ronald Reagan survived an assassination attempt in March 1981, with John Hinckley’s bullet narrowly missing his heart.

    Following the survival of Reagan—and Pope John Paul II six weeks later—three major Black Swan events marked the late 1980s. The first was the 1986 Challenger explosion, followed by the 1987 Black Monday market crash, which shocked investors far more than the general public. The decade closed with the fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989, a swan-like event, even though many had anticipated the eventual collapse of Gorbachev’s Soviet Union.

    The stock market shrugs off most Black Swan events

    The stock market posted an unexpected rally in the week and year following President Kennedy’s assassination and rebounded swiftly after the September 11, 2001 attacks. These Black Swan events appeared to have little lasting effect on Wall Street, as traders largely focused on other—primarily financial—developments and trends.

    Markets also tended to rise during many 20th-century wars, most of which began with surprise attacks. The abrupt onset of World Wars I and II, the unexpected outbreak of the Korean War, and the August 1964 Gulf of Tonkin escalation of the Vietnam War all triggered initial sell-offs that were followed by strong market recoveries.

    The accompanying diagram illustrates the market’s detailed reaction after the attack on Pearl Harbor in late 1941 and following the North Korean invasion in June 1950. These two episodes were separated by a period of post-war, largely “Swan-less,” malaise in the late 1940s.

    In the two most recent Black Swan episodes, markets followed a familiar pattern. First, the abrupt escalation of the COVID-19 crisis in March 2020 triggered a stunning 35% market collapse in just 35 days, which was then followed by one of the strongest recoveries on record later that year. Second, markets sold off sharply after President Trump and Interior Secretary Lutnick unveiled sweeping high-tariff measures on “Liberation Day” in April 2025, yet the S&P 500 has since rebounded and is now up roughly 40% from those lows.

    Most of the Dow’s top five annual gains over its 130-year history followed major Black Swan events.

    By definition, the next Black Swan event is unknowable, but the market’s response may not be. With or without a short-term correction, prices are likely to be higher a year later.

    Sources: Louis Navellier

  • Looking ahead to the week ahead: Warsh takes center stage alongside central banks

    The US Federal Reserve experienced an eventful week. On Monday, it contacted New York–based banks to assess their USD/JPY exposure, sparking speculation that Washington could be coordinating with Japan to address the Japanese Yen’s weakness. This development prompted a sharp sell-off in the US Dollar early in the week.

    The Fed’s midweek policy meeting resulted in no change to the federal funds rate, which was kept within the 3.50%–3.75% range, in line with expectations. During his press conference, Chair Jerome Powell avoided questions related to politics, his tenure, and the subpoena. However, he pointed to improving economic momentum and reduced risks to both inflation and the labor market.

    The US Dollar Index (DXY) has since rebounded toward the 96.90 level, recovering most of its weekly losses after President Donald Trump nominated former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh as the next Fed Chair on Friday. The nomination now awaits Senate approval. Looking ahead, the US is set to release several key data points next week, including the ISM Manufacturing PMI for January, MBA mortgage applications, Challenger job cuts, and weekly initial jobless claims.

    EUR/USD is hovering around the 1.1880 area after the US Dollar rebounded and recovered nearly all of its weekly losses. In the coming week, Hamburg Commercial Bank (HCOB) will release Manufacturing, Services, and Composite PMIs for both Germany and the Eurozone. Additional Eurozone data include the ECB Bank Lending Survey and December Producer Price Index (PPI), while Germany will publish December Factory Orders and Industrial Production figures.

    GBP/USD is trading near 1.3600 ahead of the Bank of England’s monetary policy announcement on Thursday. Governor Andrew Bailey’s subsequent press conference is expected to shed further light on the central bank’s outlook for interest rates. UK data releases include the final January S&P Global PMIs and the Halifax House Price Index.

    USD/JPY is holding close to the 154.50 level, paring earlier gains after Tokyo CPI data indicated easing inflation in January. Headline inflation slowed to 1.5% year-over-year from 2% in December, while core measures eased to 2%, undershooting forecasts. The softer inflation profile reduces pressure on the Bank of Japan to tighten policy.

    USD/CAD is trading around 1.3580, with the Canadian Dollar maintaining a slight edge against the greenback despite data showing economic stagnation in November. Monthly GDP was flat following a 0.3% contraction in the prior month and fell short of expectations for modest growth. Upcoming Canadian releases include January S&P Global PMIs and the Ivey PMI.

    Gold is trading near the $4,880 area after surrendering all weekly gains. Prices retreated from a record high of $5,598 as profit-taking emerged and the US Dollar strengthened sharply.

    Looking ahead: Emerging views on the economic outlook

    Scheduled central bank speakers for the week:

    Monday, February 2:
    – Bank of England’s Breeden
    – Federal Reserve’s Bostic

    Tuesday, February 3:
    – Federal Reserve’s Barkin

    Wednesday, February 4:
    – Federal Reserve’s Cook

    Thursday, February 5:
    – Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey
    – Federal Reserve’s Bostic
    – Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem

    Friday, February 6:
    – European Central Bank’s Cipollone
    – European Central Bank’s Kocher
    – Bank of England’s Pill
    – Federal Reserve’s Jefferson

    Central bank meetings and upcoming data set to influence monetary policy decisions

    Key economic data and policy events for the week:

    Monday, February 2:
    – Germany’s December Retail Sales
    – US ISM Manufacturing PMI

    Tuesday, February 3:
    – Reserve Bank of Australia monetary policy decision
    – US December JOLTS job openings

    Wednesday, February 4:
    – Eurozone January Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP)
    – US January ADP employment report

    Thursday, February 5:
    – Australia’s December trade balance
    – Eurozone December retail sales
    – Bank of England monetary policy decision
    – European Central Bank monetary policy decision

    Friday, February 6:
    – Canada’s January employment change
    – US January nonfarm payrolls
    – US February Michigan consumer sentiment

    Sources: Fxstreet

  • When will the German and Eurozone Q4 GDP figures be released, and what impact could they have on EUR/USD?

    Overview of German and Eurozone Q4 GDP

    Germany’s Federal Statistics Office will publish preliminary fourth-quarter GDP figures at 09:00 GMT on Friday, followed by Eurostat’s release of flash Eurozone GDP data at 10:00 GMT for the same period.

    Germany’s economy is expected to expand by 0.2% quarter-over-quarter in Q4, rebounding from stagnation in the previous quarter, while annual growth is forecast to remain unchanged at 0.3%. At the Eurozone level, seasonally adjusted GDP is projected to grow by 0.2% QoQ in the fourth quarter, down from 0.3% previously, with year-over-year growth seen moderating to 1.2% from 1.4%.

    How might Germany and the Eurozone’s Q4 GDP data influence the EUR/USD exchange rate?

    The EUR/USD pair may face downside pressure if Germany and Eurozone GDP figures come in line with forecasts. Investors will also closely monitor December unemployment data from both regions, as well as Germany’s Consumer Price Index (CPI for January).

    ECB policymaker Martin Kocher cautioned that additional strength in the Euro could lead the central bank to restart interest-rate cuts. After his remarks, market expectations for a summer rate reduction edged higher, with the implied probability of a July cut increasing to roughly 25% from around 15%. The ECB is set to meet next week and is broadly expected to leave interest rates unchanged.

    Meanwhile, EUR/USD is under strain as the US Dollar gains traction amid speculation that US President Donald Trump may nominate former Federal Reserve Governor Kevin Warsh as the next Fed Chair. Trump indicated late Thursday that he would reveal his decision on Friday morning, with markets leaning toward Warsh, who is perceived as relatively hawkish.

    From a technical perspective, EUR/USD is hovering near 1.1920 at the time of writing. Daily chart analysis continues to point to a bullish bias, with the pair holding within an ascending channel. A move toward the upper channel boundary near 1.2050 is possible, followed by 1.2082, the highest level since June 2021. On the downside, initial support is seen at the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) around 1.1870, with further support near the lower boundary of the channel at approximately 1.1840.

    Sources: Fxstreet

  • Powell enters final phase with rates unchanged and little guidance

    Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell offered few substantive remarks during his press conference on Wednesday, sidestepping multiple questions about the upcoming leadership transition as his term ends on May 15. He declined to comment on President Donald Trump’s potential nominee to succeed him, as well as on the president’s public criticism of his tenure.

    Powell also avoided addressing questions related to the Department of Justice investigation involving him and the ongoing Supreme Court case concerning the possible removal of Fed Governor Lisa Cook. In response to these issues, he repeatedly indicated that he had nothing further to add.

    “I have nothing on that for you.”

    He repeated that response seven times in total. On four occasions, he simply said,

    “I don’t have anything on that for you.”

    After the FOMC voted to keep the federal funds rate in a range of 3.50%–3.75%, Powell provided no additional forward guidance beyond reiterating the Fed’s data-dependent, meeting-by-meeting approach. He did, however, acknowledge the underlying strength of the U.S. economy.

    Powell noted that the unemployment rate has remained low at around 4.4% in recent months, even as job growth has slowed. He also said inflation is expected to ease as the effects of President Trump’s tariffs fade.

    Overall, Powell characterized the risks of higher inflation and rising unemployment as balanced, signaling little urgency for policy action. This assessment increases the likelihood that the federal funds rate will remain unchanged at his final two meetings as FOMC chair.

    Officials in the Trump administration broadly share our “Roaring 2020s” outlook, which assumes stronger-than-expected productivity growth will lift real GDP while easing inflation pressures as unit labor cost growth falls toward zero. They argue that this expectation supports additional cuts to the federal funds rate—a view echoed by two dissenting members of the FOMC, who expressed similar reasoning at the latest meeting.

    We take a different view. Cutting the federal funds rate further from current levels would heighten the risk of financial instability, particularly by fueling a melt-up in equity markets. A similar dynamic is already evident in precious metals. Additional rate cuts would also put further downward pressure on the dollar, potentially reigniting inflationary pressures.

    Bond markets appear to share this skepticism. When the Fed reduced the federal funds rate by 100 basis points in late 2024, the 10-year Treasury yield rose by a similar amount. Even after another 75-basis-point cut late last year, the yield held around 4.00% and has since climbed to 4.26%. We continue to expect the 10-year yield to trade largely between 4.25% and 4.75% this year—levels that were typical in the period before the Global Financial Crisis.

    Sources: Ed Yardeni

  • Why the Next Recession Could Trigger a Depression

    Narrative control functions by offering ready-made answers to every doubt or challenge. At its core, the prevailing narrative claims that the Federal Reserve and the central government possess sufficient tools to quickly counter any decline in GDP—otherwise known as a recession—and steer the economy back toward growth.

    Implicit in this view is the assumption that recessions are inherently harmful, while uninterrupted expansion is inherently desirable. Few question the fact that this framework departs from true free-market capitalism. Instead, central banking and government intervention are justified as mechanisms to smooth out capitalism’s rough edges through a form of state capitalism—one that can create or borrow as much money as needed to neutralize economic disruptions, including recessions.

    What this narrative leaves out is the role recessions play as a natural and necessary part of market dynamics. Instead, it reduces economic cycles to a simplistic binary: contraction is bad, expansion is good. Yet markets are ultimately driven by human behavior—particularly fear and greed—which express themselves through borrowing and speculation. During periods of confidence, when growth appears limitless, participants take on increasing levels of debt and channel capital into progressively riskier investments in pursuit of higher returns.

    As borrowed funds flow into speculative assets, prices rise, boosting the value of collateral and enabling even more borrowing to finance further speculation. Debt, asset prices, collateral and risk-taking thus reinforce one another, creating the illusion of an endlessly self-sustaining expansion in which everyone appears to grow wealthier.

    However, this layering of debt and paper wealth carries within it two forces that eventually unwind the process: interest and risk. Every loan carries an obligation to pay interest, which compensates lenders for the risks they assume. As overall debt grows—and as investments become more speculative—debt servicing costs increase accordingly, especially for higher-risk borrowers.

    While central banks can attempt to suppress interest rates even as risk rises, their influence is inherently limited. They control only a portion of total outstanding debt and therefore cannot dominate the market entirely.

    Their role in prolonging debt expansion and speculation relies less on absorbing most new debt and more on signaling. By projecting the message that the Federal Reserve will step in to backstop losses, recapitalize lenders, and cap interest rates below market-clearing levels, policymakers encourage continued borrowing and risk-taking. This reinforces the belief that debt and speculation can keep expanding indefinitely.

    Yet signaling alone cannot solve the underlying problem. It does not increase the income required to service growing debt burdens, nor does it ensure speculative investments will deliver returns. These limitations expose the fundamental weakness of the central banking “perpetual motion” model. For most borrowers—both private and public—income does not automatically rise alongside debt. Instead, income depends on market conditions, technological change, government policy, and the broader cycle of credit expansion or contraction.

    At the level of the overall economy, what ultimately matters is total factor productivity and how its gains are distributed among workers, businesses, asset owners, and the state, which extracts revenue from each through taxation. This distribution is not fixed; it shifts with changing social, political, and financial forces.

    Over the past five decades, the benefits of productivity growth have increasingly accrued to capital—corporations and asset owners—rather than to workers. As a consequence, households and small businesses are left servicing debt with a diminishing share of overall economic income. This imbalance makes additional borrowing progressively more hazardous for both borrowers and lenders alike.

    As a growing share of economic output accrues to corporations and asset owners, their collateral values, income streams, and perceived creditworthiness strengthen. This allows them to borrow larger sums at lower interest rates than wage earners and small businesses. Greater access to cheap credit enables further asset accumulation, which in turn generates additional income—creating a self-reinforcing cycle.

    This dynamic sits at the heart of widening wealth and income inequality. Those at the top grow richer not simply because they earn more, but because they can finance income-producing assets at costs far below those faced by workers. Unlike wages, income derived from assets tends to rise alongside asset values, which can be leveraged as collateral to support even more borrowing.

    At a deeper structural level, the system becomes unstable once economic growth fails to raise household incomes enough to support higher debt servicing. The entire framework of expanding credit, collateral, and speculation then comes under strain. Asset-driven income ultimately depends on one or more of three forces: continued credit expansion, increased risk-taking in financial markets, or sustained consumer spending. These forces are tightly linked, as any slowdown in borrowing, investing, or spending eventually undermines the ability to service debt and brings the credit cycle to a halt.

    Because debt inherently carries default risk, an economic model reliant on ever-expanding borrowing also amplifies systemic vulnerability—particularly when household incomes stagnate while debt levels and interest obligations continue to rise.

    With the share of output flowing to wages declining for decades, households have increasingly relied on borrowing to sustain consumption. Before the 2000s, student debt was relatively limited; today it totals trillions of dollars. Auto loans and credit card balances have also surged, alongside less visible forms of leverage such as installment-based financing and other shadow-banking channels that are often underreported.

    Speculative investments carry intrinsic risk, as there is no guarantee they will generate returns. When such speculation is financed through borrowing, failure does not only harm the investor—it also inflicts losses on the lender, as both sides are exposed when the bet collapses.

    Taken together, stagnant income growth, rising reliance on debt to sustain consumption, and increasingly risky, debt-backed speculation have produced an economy dependent on credit-driven asset bubbles. Growth now hinges on the continual expansion of debt to support spending and fuel speculative activity that inflates asset prices, thereby boosting collateral values and enabling even more borrowing.

    When income growth can no longer keep pace with rising debt obligations, defaults begin to ripple through the system. Households fall behind on rent, auto loans, student debt, credit cards, and mortgages, triggering a collapse in consumer spending. The resulting strain spreads to lenders and employers, who respond by tightening credit, cutting back borrowing, and laying off workers—further eroding income across the economy.

    Speculative investments that appeared viable during the expansion unravel as credit conditions tighten. Lenders withdraw from riskier loans, household demand dries up, and asset prices fall as investors rush to sell risk assets in order to raise cash and reduce leverage. Collateral values deteriorate rapidly, amplifying losses.

    Economies dependent on credit-fueled asset bubbles function as tightly interconnected systems. Any decline in income or asset prices, any increase in interest rates, any reduction in available credit, or any erosion of collateral feeds back into the broader structure. These shocks reinforce one another, creating a downward spiral marked by defaults, layoffs, and falling valuations.

    In an economy already saturated with debt, policy stimulus no longer produces real growth; instead, it fuels inflation, which constrains central banks’ ability to respond. Once markets lose confidence in the belief that policymakers will always step in to backstop losses, both speculation and the borrowing that sustained it begin to dry up. As the flow of new, credit-funded investment slows, asset prices enter a self-reinforcing decline.

    In a credit-asset-bubble-dependent system, this inevitable unwinding is often perceived not as a structural outcome, but as a sudden and unforeseen crisis.

    In an economic system that permits recessions to purge unsustainable debt and excess speculation, the bursting of credit-driven asset bubbles is seen as a natural and unavoidable process rather than an aberration.

    Few recognize two critical realities: first, the last true recession that meaningfully purged excess debt, leverage, and speculation occurred in 1980–82—more than four decades ago; second, the shock absorbers that enabled recovery back then no longer exist. In 1980, total debt stood at roughly 150% of GDP. Today, it is closer to three times GDP. This makes debt-driven expansion unworkable: borrowers are already struggling to service existing obligations, let alone take on more.

    Nor can the Federal Reserve rescue the system simply by cutting rates to zero. The Fed holds only a small fraction of the roughly $106 trillion in outstanding debt; its primary influence is psychological, signaling that risk is low. In reality, risk continues to rise as debt burdens, interest costs, leverage, and speculation compound.

    A repeat of the 2008-style bailout is equally implausible. Then, the system was stabilized by recapitalizing the financial sector—the engine of new credit creation. Today, however, the economy is saturated with debt, incomes have stagnated, and borrowers lack the capacity to sustain additional leverage. Meanwhile, housing and financial asset bubbles have expanded to historically fragile extremes.

    This is why a recession that finally cleanses excess debt and speculation would leave behind an economy unable to rebound. The current system depends entirely on debt, leverage, and speculative excess not just for growth, but for basic stability. Once that structure collapses—as all bubbles eventually do—the confidence, signaling, and perceived wealth that sustained it will vanish as well.

    Proposals to “save” the system by shifting fiat money into gold or cryptocurrencies offer no escape. The debt itself—and the income required to service it—would also be carried over, leaving the underlying dynamics unchanged. The collapse of credit-driven asset bubbles, and the economic activity built upon them, would still unfold.

    For this reason, the next recession is likely to trigger a full-scale breakdown of a credit-asset-bubble-dependent economy. While policymakers may attempt to reflate another bubble as a solution, such an approach will no longer be sustainable. A durable recovery would instead require restructuring the economy around real productivity gains that are broadly shared, rather than concentrated among asset holders.

    This transition will be slow and painful. Those who benefited most from the bubble economy will resist losing both extraordinary returns and their disproportionate share of gains. Yet neither can be preserved. The adjustment will demand time, sacrifice, and large, long-term investment in genuinely productive assets.

    Ultimately, the systemic risks embedded in a credit-asset-bubble economy cannot be eliminated—only disguised or shifted elsewhere. These temporary fixes allow the bubble to grow larger, but the cost is borne by society at large when the system’s internal dynamics inevitably bring it crashing down.

    Sources: Charles Hugh Smith

  • Morning Bid: Markets shrug off tariff threats

    President Donald Trump once again surprised markets by announcing an increase in tariffs on South Korea to 25% from 15%, citing Seoul’s failure to implement a trade agreement reached last July. The move targets sectors such as autos, lumber, and pharmaceuticals, yet South Korean equities ended up surging 2% to fresh record highs. The KOSPI initially slid more than 1%, but the dip quickly attracted buyers seeking exposure to Asia’s strongest-performing equity market of 2025.

    With South Korea’s industry minister set to travel to Washington, investors appear to be betting on a negotiated climbdown, reviving the popular “TACO” trade—Trump Always Chickens Out. Few are surprised that Seoul has been reluctant to commit massive U.S. investments while the risk of abrupt tariff threats remains a defining feature of the administration.

    Tariff uncertainty also boosted demand for precious metals, pushing gold and silver back toward record levels. Gold rose 1% to $5,063 an ounce, while silver jumped 5% to $109 an ounce.

    Asian equities were broadly firmer, supported by optimism that blockbuster earnings from the U.S. “Magnificent Seven,” beginning with Meta, Microsoft and Tesla later this week, will help sustain the global equity rally into 2026. MSCI’s Asia-Pacific index excluding Japan climbed 1% to a new high, while Japan’s Nikkei added 0.7%, even as the yen hovered near a two-month peak—normally a headwind for exporters.

    European equities are poised for a firmer open, with EURO STOXX 50 futures up 0.3%. U.S. futures are also higher, as Nasdaq futures climb nearly 0.6% and S&P 500 futures rise 0.3%. The global economic calendar remains relatively quiet ahead of Wednesday’s Federal Reserve policy decision, at which interest rates are widely expected to be left unchanged. Nevertheless, the meeting is likely to be dominated by the Justice Department’s investigation into Fed Chair Jerome Powell, adding extra scrutiny to his post-meeting press conference. Any indication that Powell may choose to remain on the Fed’s board after his term ends in May—a move permitted under Fed rules—could provoke an unpredictable reaction from President Trump.

    Sources: Reuters

  • Five key market themes to watch in the coming week

    A crucial Federal Reserve interest rate decision is set to dominate attention this week, especially after news of a criminal investigation into Chair Jerome Powell heightened concerns about the central bank’s independence. At the same time, several major technology firms are scheduled to release quarterly earnings, with investors watching closely for evidence that heavy investments in artificial intelligence are beginning to pay off. Adding to market uncertainty, President Donald Trump has issued a renewed tariff threat against Canada, keeping geopolitical risks firmly in focus.

    Fed decision ahead

    This week’s agenda is expected to be led by the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision on Wednesday, following a two-day policy meeting focused on setting borrowing costs as the U.S. economy remains broadly resilient. While employment—previously a key driver of rate cuts in 2025—appears stable amid subdued hiring and limited layoffs, inflation has held steady but remains above the Fed’s 2% target. Some analysts caution that economic growth is becoming increasingly “K-shaped,” with stronger performance among higher-income households and corporations, while lower-income earners face rising living costs. Against this backdrop, the Fed is widely expected to leave rates unchanged at 3.5%–3.75%, with CME FedWatch indicating that the next rate cut is unlikely before June.

    Attention shifts to who could replace Powell

    January’s Federal Reserve meeting takes place amid repeated calls from President Trump for swift and aggressive rate cuts to stimulate economic growth, alongside his criticism of officials for resisting such moves. Long-standing concerns over the Fed’s political independence intensified earlier this month after the Justice Department launched a criminal investigation into Chair Jerome Powell. In an unusual public response, Powell condemned the probe, characterizing it as an attempt to pressure monetary policy in line with the White House’s preferences.

    Appointed during Trump’s first term, Powell now has only a few months remaining as Fed chair, and markets are closely watching whether tensions with the administration could influence his decision to remain on the Fed’s rate-setting board after his term ends. Adding to the uncertainty is the question of who will succeed him. Prediction markets currently favor BlackRock executive Rick Rieder as the leading contender, overtaking former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh, while Trump has suggested he has narrowed his choice to a single candidate.

    Major tech earnings in the spotlight

    The earnings calendar this week will be dominated by results from major technology companies, including Meta Platforms, Microsoft, and Apple. Driven partly by excitement over advanced artificial intelligence applications, these firms have led equity markets in recent years. Their push to secure leadership in the AI race has prompted a sharp rise in capital spending, particularly on data centers and the semiconductors required to support AI workloads. While investors have largely been willing to overlook these heavy investments, expectations for meaningful revenue returns are now rising, with analysts describing 2026 as a “prove-it” year for big tech. This wave of earnings may provide the first clues as to whether those expectations are being fulfilled.

    ASML to report

    In Europe, attention will turn to ASML, the world’s leading supplier of chipmaking equipment, which is due to report earnings on Wednesday. The Dutch group’s market capitalization crossed the $500 billion mark earlier this month after key customer TSMC announced larger-than-expected capital spending plans to meet surging demand for AI chips. This milestone has cemented ASML’s position as Europe’s most valuable company, with analysts watching closely to see whether the AI boom can further accelerate its growth. However, ASML has so far issued a cautious outlook for the year ahead, with sales projected at best to remain flat, prompting concerns that the pace of new fab construction may be trailing the rapid expansion in AI-driven demand.

    New tariff threat from Trump rattles markets

    After seemingly backing away from earlier claims that he would impose punitive tariffs on several European countries unless the United States was permitted to buy Greenland, President Trump issued a fresh trade warning over the weekend, saying he would levy a 100% tariff on Canadian imports if Ottawa were to strike a trade agreement with China. In social media posts, Trump cautioned that Prime Minister Mark Carney—who recently visited China for trade discussions and spoke in Davos about the need for smaller economies to push back against coercion by global powers—could put Canada at risk by pursuing closer ties with Beijing.

    Trump warned that China would severely damage Canada’s economy and society, stating that all Canadian goods entering the U.S. would face a 100% duty should such a deal be reached. Carney responded that Canada has no plans to seek a free trade agreement with China, stressing that Ottawa remains committed to its obligations under the USMCA and would consult both the U.S. and Mexico before pursuing any new trade arrangements. Analysts at Vital Knowledge noted that while the likelihood of the tariff threat being enacted appears low, Trump’s repeated and abrupt warnings are gradually weighing on investor sentiment.

    Sources: Investing