Bitcoin is down over 22% in Q4 so far, putting 2025 among the weakest year-end periods outside major bear markets, CoinGlass data shows.
Key points
- Bitcoin nears $90,000, offering temporary support to crypto sentiment.
- Crypto market cap tops $3 trillion, though the rally may be exhaustion-driven.
- Bitcoin remains ~30% below its 2025 high, with elevated reversal risks.
Bitcoin’s move back toward the $90,000 level is providing a short-term lift to the crypto market, but few analysts see it as a meaningful turning point after one of the weakest second halves in recent years.
Major tokens traded in tight ranges over the past 24 hours, with XRP, Ether, Solana’s SOL, Cardano’s ADA and Dogecoin rising by up to 2%. Aave’s AAVE continued to slide amid an ongoing governance dispute, making it the worst-performing major token with a 7% decline.
Crypto market cap has reclaimed $3 trillion, a key psychological level, though analysts warn the rebound may be driven by exhaustion rather than fresh buying.
Alex Kuptsikevich, chief market analyst at FxPro, said the crypto market’s recent strength is largely technical, driven by a low base after weeks of sustained selling.
“The crypto market is making another attempt to grow, but this is not yet a recovery,” Kuptsikevich said, adding that sentiment has improved only marginally. The market’s fear and greed index has risen to 25, indicating traders may be stepping away from extreme pessimism, but are still reluctant to embrace risk.
Bitcoin was trading near $88,000 during Asian morning hours on Tuesday, testing the upper end of a range that has held since early last week. Kuptsikevich cautioned that short-term momentum could be misleading, particularly in the broader context. Bitcoin remains roughly 30% below its 2025 peak and below levels seen at the start of the year.
“Attempts to bring year-to-date performance back to zero offer little comfort,” he said in an email, noting that disappointment has replaced the optimism that dominated markets earlier this year.
Seasonal trends underscore that caution. CoinGlass data shows Bitcoin is down more than 22% so far in the fourth quarter, making 2025 one of the weakest year-end periods outside of major bear markets.
While the fourth quarter has historically delivered some of Bitcoin’s strongest rallies, it has also seen sharp drawdowns in years characterized by tightening liquidity and heightened macroeconomic uncertainty.
Markets remain prone to sharp reversals, with gains from Asian and European sessions often fading once U.S. trading begins.
Sources: Coindesk
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