Silver sold off sharply after Kevin Warsh’s nomination to the Fed caught investors off guard who had been anticipating a more dovish pivot. The metal remains under pressure from margin increases, elevated physical delivery requirements, and aggressive short positioning by Chinese traders. While long-term fundamentals remain constructive, prices are still range-bound as the market waits for clearer macro and technical signals.
The steep decline in silver toward the end of last week can reasonably be characterized as a crash, triggered primarily by the announcement of Kevin Warsh’s nomination to lead the Federal Reserve.
Prior to the news, markets had been positioned for a notably dovish appointment, an expectation shaped by President Donald Trump’s repeated calls for a weaker U.S. dollar and faster interest-rate cuts. Warsh’s nomination caught investors off guard, forcing a rapid reassessment of monetary policy expectations.
Even so, uncertainty remains around how the incoming Fed chair would ultimately steer the central bank.
At the same time, broader commodity markets have struggled to regain traction. Despite several rebound attempts, prices have failed to establish sustained upside momentum, leaving commodities—silver included—likely confined to a period of sideways consolidation for now.
Investors Demand Physical Deliveries
Beyond monetary policy concerns, silver prices are facing additional pressure following the CME Group’s decision to raise margin requirements for gold and silver. The higher margins have forced some leveraged investors to unwind long positions, intensifying selling pressure.
At the same time, a growing number of futures contracts are moving toward physical delivery rather than being rolled forward. Given the current supply tightness, this dynamic is, for now, benefiting sellers more than buyers.
Activity out of China has also drawn attention. Zhongcai Futures reportedly established a sizable short position in silver—estimated at roughly $1.5 billion—and appears to have profited significantly from the recent decline.
With the Lunar New Year holiday ending and the Shanghai Stock Exchange reopening, market participants will be closely monitoring how Asian demand evolves.
Overall, the recent move appears to be a corrective pullback after metals prices advanced too rapidly over a short period. While the near-term retracement has weighed on sentiment, it does little to alter the longer-term outlook. From a fundamental perspective, the case for higher prices remains intact, supported by constrained supply and steadily rising industrial demand.
Investors will also be watching Kevin Warsh closely, as any public remarks could provide clearer insight into his economic views and expectations for the interest-rate path in the months ahead.
Technical View on Silver
Early in the week, demand showed signs of returning as investors stepped in to buy the dip. However, the rebound proved short-lived, with a fresh wave of selling reversing the recovery. For now, prices are consolidating within a range of roughly $74 to $92 per ounce.
By the end of the week, prices are likely to stay confined within this range, provided U.S. labor market data does not deliver any major surprises. From a technical standpoint, the market appears to be in wait-and-see mode, looking for a decisive breakout to determine the next directional move. Meanwhile, the U.S. Dollar Index has once again held key support near the 96 level, which also represents its lows for the year.
If buyers are able to extend the rebound, the next major hurdle sits near the 100 resistance level. A decisive break above that area could pave the way for a move toward 103.
On the downside, a drop below 96 on the U.S. Dollar Index would be a clear signal that the broader downtrend remains intact and is likely to persist.
Following a sharp and prolonged rally triggered by the outbreak of the Russia–Ukraine war in 2022, natural gas prices have since collapsed. The downturn has been driven by record U.S. output, warmer-than-expected winters, and improvements in drilling technology, all of which have contributed to a significant supply–demand imbalance.
Over the past five years, natural gas—and related instruments such as the US Natural Gas Fund ETF (NYSE: UNG)—has dropped nearly 60%, reinforcing its long-standing reputation as the “widow maker.”
However, following a sharp cold-weather-driven spike, warmer February forecasts have dampened near-term demand expectations, triggering a roughly 15% selloff in natural gas prices on Sunday evening.
Even so, a number of bullish catalysts are coming into focus that could pave the way for a powerful, 2022-style rally in natural gas. Below are three key reasons to maintain a bullish outlook, including:
Rising Energy Demand From Data Centers
Already, the buildout of AI-focused data centers represents the largest infrastructure expansion in history. Data from Grand View Research shows that the data center construction market surpassed $250 billion in 2025, as hyperscalers such as Alphabet (NASDAQ: GOOGL) and Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT) race to secure leadership in artificial intelligence. Looking ahead, spending on AI data center construction is projected to surge to $450 billion by the end of the decade.
Recent remarks from Nvidia’s (NASDAQ: NVDA) influential CEO, Jensen Huang, reinforce this view. Speaking at the World Economic Forum (WEF) 2026 in Davos, Switzerland, Huang pushed back against concerns of an AI bubble, pointing to rising spot prices—even for older GPUs—and the scarcity of available units for rent. He also suggested that trillions of dollars of capital are poised to flow into the development of increasingly powerful AI models.
That said, hyperscalers face a significant constraint: energy. Power costs are climbing as electricity demand from AI data centers is projected to double by the end of the decade.
While renewable and nuclear energy continue to dominate Wall Street’s narrative, both come with relatively high upfront costs. In the near term, natural gas remains the most reliable, scalable, and cost-effective source of power for meeting large-scale electricity demand.
U.S. LNG Producers Capitalize on Global Demand
Several major liquefied natural gas (LNG) export terminals are set to come online in 2026, expanding U.S. producers’ ability to supply Europe and other global markets. With U.S. natural gas prices well below those in Europe, exporters are incentivized to ship more volumes overseas. This dynamic is expected to absorb excess domestic supply, helping establish a solid price floor for U.S. natural gas.
In addition, the Trump administration has emphasized an “American Energy Dominance” strategy, securing multiple long-term LNG supply agreements with countries such as Japan and Qatar. These deals underpin durable, long-term demand for U.S. LNG exports.
Natural Gas Poised to Replace Coal
According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), U.S. coal production declined 11.3% year over year, with the number of active coal mines dropping from 560 to 524. Although many countries are transitioning toward renewable sources such as solar, these alternatives are currently insufficient to fully replace coal-fired generation. In the near term, natural gas offers the most viable solution, given its scalability, cost efficiency, and significantly lower emissions—producing roughly half the CO₂ of coal.
Technical Outlook for Natural Gas
Over the past several weeks, UNG has surged from roughly $10 to $16.90. However, warmer-than-expected weather forecasts suggest the ETF may pull back to test its 200-day moving average. Bulls will be watching closely this week to see whether that key support level holds.
Bottom Line
While natural gas is well known for its short-term volatility and weather-driven swings, the underlying fundamentals are increasingly pointing toward a bullish long-term trajectory. Rising energy demand from AI data centers, combined with expanding U.S. export capacity, is expected to drive sustained growth in demand over time.
The bull market has expanded beyond technology, and a number of upcoming Investor Days, Analyst Days, and business updates across non-tech sectors may provide valuable insight into the health of the broader, Main Street economy. Improving manufacturing sentiment creates a constructive backdrop for renewed corporate commentary. Together with fourth-quarter earnings reports and early-year industry conferences, these events are expected to deliver both qualitative perspectives and quantitative data points for investors.
Technology stocks and the AI theme have driven global markets since the bull run began in October 2022. This year’s rally—marked by record highs across regions from Japan to Europe—has been led by a new group of sectors. In the United States, Energy and Materials are out in front, delivering double-digit gains through early February, with other “real economy” areas such as Consumer Staples and Industrials close behind.
This kind of sector rotation is often viewed constructively, particularly when the S&P 500 holds elevated levels as market leadership shifts. Still, some observers have raised concerns that late-cycle industries and even traditionally defensive segments are starting to outperform more than three years into the bull market.
Regardless of whether the shift proves bullish or bearish, attention has clearly moved toward cyclical and value-oriented stocks. While two more members of the Magnificent Seven are set to report earnings this week, meaningful macro signals are increasingly expected to come from outside the technology sector. In addition, corporate events—including investor conferences, shareholder meetings, interim updates, analyst days, and business briefings—add important context alongside formal earnings releases.
Our team has identified several upcoming events hosted by non-tech, blue-chip companies over the next few weeks that could provide insight into the health of the manufacturing sector and the broader Main Street economy. These meetings follow the strongest U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI reading since August 2022, released earlier this week. The next phase of the bull market may be taking shape—not in technology, but in more traditional sectors. Below are the key events that will help clarify that trajectory.
Thursday, February 5: Xcel Energy 2025 Year-End Webcast
Power generation is expected to be a central theme at Xcel Energy’s (XEL) Analyst Day, which will take place shortly after the release of its Q4 2025 earnings. The $44 billion market-cap utility has pulled back after reaching record highs late last year, though the weakness has been broadly shared across the sector. Utilities within the S&P 500 continue to face volatility as significant structural changes reshape what has historically been a relatively quiet corner of the market.
A Dividend Aristocrat, Xcel Energy shares are up roughly 10% over the past year. Management signaled a more aggressive capital expenditure strategy in its Q3 update last October. Investors will be looking for greater detail on project developments, as well as insight into trends tied to the expanding AI-driven infrastructure buildout, when the company presents tomorrow morning.
Tuesday, February 10: Williams Companies 2026 Analyst Day
Williams (WMB) is also expected to spotlight developments in the energy market. The $81 billion market-cap oil and gas storage and transportation company navigated several major winter storms with limited disruption. In November, management outlined a significant investment plan, announcing a $5.1 billion capital expenditure initiative focused on power innovation, alongside an ambitious 9% annualized growth outlook.
Midstream energy companies have long appealed to income-focused investors for their stable and growing dividends, but a meaningful growth angle may now be emerging. After years of subdued demand, U.S. power consumption is beginning to accelerate. Investors will gain updated insight into these trends next Tuesday, following the company’s Q4 earnings release.
Thursday, February 12: FedEx 2026 Investor Day
One of the most closely watched events this month is FedEx’s (FDX) Investor Day on February 12. CEO Raj Subramaniam has navigated a series of macroeconomic challenges during his tenure, prompting strategic shifts and operational adjustments. This year, the Memphis-based air freight and logistics company plans to spin off its FedEx Freight division by June 1.
FedEx delivered an earnings beat in December, triggering a long-awaited rally in the stock. Shares are up more than 50% over the past six months, setting a constructive backdrop for the Investor Day. While the specific announcements remain uncertain, companies typically do not convene such high-profile events to deliver negative news, suggesting an optimistic tone is likely.
Monday, February 23: JPMorgan Chase & Co. 2026 Update
JPMorgan Chase (JPM) may use its Business Update on Monday, February 23, to address several housekeeping items. While the largest U.S. bank by market value is shifting back to a first-quarter reporting cadence, that change is unlikely to capture investors’ attention. Instead, the focus will be on an operational overview and a potentially market-moving Q&A session with company leadership.
JPM shares reached an all-time high on January 6 before pulling back around earnings, ultimately sliding into a roughly 12% drawdown early in the year. Whether the stock can regain momentum following the upcoming update remains an open question. Investors may get early signals on Tuesday, February 10, when co-CEO Troy Rohrbaugh is scheduled to present at the UBS Financial Services Conference.
Wednesday, February 25: L3Harris Technologies 2026 Investor Day
Tuesday, March 10: Howmet Aerospace 2026 Technology & Markets Presentation
Two Aerospace & Defense companies—L3Harris (LHX) and Howmet Aerospace (HWM)—are set to host investor briefings in the coming weeks. Similar to banks, defense stocks have faced early pressure to start 2026. Both companies were also referenced unfavorably in recent Truth Social posts from President Trump. Proposals such as a potential cap on credit card interest rates weighed on financial stocks like JPMorgan, while threats of capital controls—including restrictions on dividends and share buybacks—were directed at defense names such as LHX, HWM, and their peers.
L3Harris shares declined following last week’s Q4 earnings release, while Howmet Aerospace is scheduled to report results before the market opens on Thursday, February 12.
The Bottom Line
Market leadership within the bull run appears to be widening, as capital increasingly rotates toward cyclical, value-oriented, and real-economy sectors. A slate of upcoming corporate events across Utilities, Energy, Industrials, and Financials could provide important clues as to whether economic momentum is gaining traction beyond technology. Should these updates confirm improving fundamentals, they may point to a more resilient and broadly based next stage of the bull market.
Uncertainty surrounding AI is driving market volatility on several fronts. Beyond accelerating layoffs as AI replaces certain roles, software stocks continue to sell off amid concerns that rapid AI deployment threatens all but companies with strong client-relationship moats. At the same time, surging demand for large-scale data centers has boosted memory chipmakers, while early winners in other semiconductor segments are now facing valuation pressure. Meanwhile, advances in quantum computing are gaining traction and could fundamentally reshape the landscape if fully realized—particularly in the area of security, where quantum systems are widely viewed as capable of breaking existing encryption methods, including those used in blockchain technology. Despite the turbulence, the longer-term outlook still points toward meaningful gains in labor productivity and improved corporate profit margins.
This morning, the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the equal-weighted S&P 500 are the only major indexes trading in positive territory. Both the NASDAQ and the “Magnificent Seven” are now negative year to date. While the S&P 500 is up 0.9% YTD, the equal-weighted S&P has gained 4.6%, highlighting the underperformance of mega-cap technology stocks. The Dow is up 3.2%, and the Russell 2000 continues to lead with a 6.3% gain YTD, despite a 0.5% decline over the past week. Market volatility remains elevated, with the VIX jumping to 19.1 at the open from 18 previously and currently holding near 18.8.
Sector performance year to date shows Financial Services (-2.3%), Technology (-1.3%), and Healthcare (-0.5%) as the only groups in negative territory. In contrast, Energy (+15.6%), Basic Materials (+11.8%), and Consumer Staples (+10.5%) are posting double-digit gains.
Interest rates are little changed, with the U.S. 2-year Treasury yield at 3.57% and the 10-year at 4.27%. International yields are similarly flat. The U.S. dollar index is higher by 0.25 at 97.55, up 1.3% over the past week.
Precious metals are experiencing sharp swings today, with gold climbing as high as $5,113 per ounce before retreating to $4,939, while silver fell from $92.0 to $86.5 per ounce. Copper prices declined 2.7% to $5.92 per ounce. Energy markets are relatively quiet, with crude oil trading flat near $63.20 per barrel.
Cryptocurrencies continue to weaken, as Bitcoin has fallen 3.7% to $73.9K and is now down 26.4% over the last twelve months. Ethereum is lower by 4.2% and down 31% LTM. Even with the prospect of clearer regulation, many investors remain cautious given the sector’s persistent volatility.
On the earnings front, AMD delivered solid top- and bottom-line beats, but weaker-than-expected data center revenue and rising costs weighed heavily on the stock. Shares are down a sharp 15.9%—their worst session in years—bringing performance to -4.9% YTD, though still up 70.4% LTM, and sending ripples through the broader hardware space. The semiconductor sector is down 3.9% on the day, including a 3.1% decline in NVIDIA. In contrast, Eli Lilly posted a strong earnings beat, exceeded expectations on both revenue and profit, and raised guidance. Its shares are up 9.8%, now +2.6% YTD and +33.7% LTM. Investors are also looking ahead to Alphabet’s results tonight and Amazon’s tomorrow.
As trading continues, the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the equal-weighted S&P 500 are holding onto gains, while the NASDAQ has slid more than 1% and the Magnificent Seven is down 0.9%. The S&P 500 has dipped below 6,900, off 0.3%, and the Russell 2000 is down 0.8%. The ongoing pullback in technology stocks reflects elevated valuations and persistently high interest rates. Even so, the Dow and the equal-weighted S&P remain near record highs, the broader trend is still positive, and a rebound in tech following this correction would not be unexpected.
In our Ethereum (ETHUSD) update from three weeks ago, we noted that ETH had been forming an ascending triangle since 2020—characterized by higher lows and relatively equal highs—signaling that the long-term uptrend remained intact. We also highlighted that a pullback toward the ~$2,200 support area, followed by a breakout, could open the door for a move toward ~$6,190.
Today, Ethereum is trading near that trend line at around $2,150. At the same time, the daily RSI(30) has declined to 32. Historically, aside from the 2018 bear market, this zone has provided attractive low-risk, high-reward opportunities for investors with a long-term horizon or those employing a dollar-cost averaging (DCA) strategy (see Figure 1).
Figure 1: Ethereum’s daily price action since 2015.
More on the RSI is discussed below. In the meantime, what would be the downside risk if the trend line fails to hold, allowing for some short-term whipsaw action? That scenario is illustrated below using the Elliott Wave Principle (EW). Under this framework, ETH’s price action suggests it may be unfolding within a larger, higher-degree fourth wave—labeled as the black Wave 4. See Figure 2.
Figure 2: Ethereum’s monthly price action since 2015.
In this scenario, Ethereum would gravitate toward the lower black dotted trend line, which has acted as key downside support since 2021 and is currently near $1,450. From that level, the second-largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization could still resume its advance, unfolding a (black) fifth wave that ideally targets around $6,200 (4,865 − 1,08? + 1,450). This aligns closely with the breakout objective from our original analysis, where we noted: “If Ethereum drops to ~$2,200 support first and then breaks out, we can expect ~$6,190.”
Lastly, it is worth noting that the monthly RSI(5) has now fallen below 30. Similar to the daily RSI(30), historical data shows that this level has typically provided low-risk, high-reward opportunities for investors with a long-term horizon and/or those employing a dollar-cost averaging (DCA) approach.
USD/JPY paused its advance near the 157.00 mark during Thursday’s Asian session, as a renewed bout of risk aversion revived safe-haven demand for the Japanese yen.
That said, the yen remains on fragile footing amid ongoing concerns over Japan’s fiscal position under Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s expansionary spending agenda, helping to limit downside pressure on the pair.
Looking ahead, the U.S. JOLTS Job Openings report could provide fresh impetus for near-term trading.
USD/JPY Technical Analysis
The Japanese yen emerged as the weakest-performing G8 currency on Wednesday. Its sharp underperformance has lifted USD/JPY above the 156.80 level at the time of writing, putting the pair on course for a roughly 3% rebound from last week’s lows.
Fundamental Analysis
Investors are offloading the yen broadly ahead of this weekend’s snap election. Rising support for Prime Minister Takaichi has fuelled concerns that a stronger electoral mandate would allow her to extend tax cuts and expand stimulus spending, heightening fears of fiscal strain.
Markets Brush Aside Intervention Concerns
Tokyo authorities have warned of possible intervention to curb excessive yen volatility, but those concerns have been largely brushed aside. Comments from Prime Minister Takaichi highlighting the benefits of a weaker yen, along with the U.S. Treasury Secretary’s denial of any coordinated effort to stabilise the currency, have instead driven the yen sharply lower across the board.
The U.S. dollar, however, is not especially strong on Wednesday. While markets continue to react positively to the nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve Chair and to the end of the brief partial government shutdown, the recent rally in the U.S. Dollar Index appears to be losing momentum.
Attention now turns to upcoming U.S. data, including the Services PMI and the ADP Employment Change report. The latter could be particularly influential, as the government shutdown has delayed Friday’s official nonfarm payrolls release, leaving private-sector jobs data as a key guide for markets.
Gold saw choppy price action during Thursday’s Asian session, oscillating within a roughly $200 range. Traders are now looking to the U.S. JOLTS Job Openings report and developments on the geopolitical front—particularly U.S.–Iran tensions—for clearer directional cues.
XAU/USD Technical Analysis
The 21-, 50-, 100- and 200-day SMAs are all sloping higher, with the 21-day positioned above the longer-term averages, highlighting a well-established bullish structure. Prices remain above these indicators, confirming that buyers retain control. Initial support is seen at the 21-day SMA near $4,827.45, followed by the 50-day SMA at $4,532.68. The 14-day RSI has eased to a neutral 52.58, suggesting momentum is consolidating after retreating from overbought levels.
The positive alignment of the moving averages favours a buy-on-dips approach while prices hold above the short-term average. A more pronounced correction would bring the 100-day SMA at $4,271.21 into focus, with the 200-day SMA at $3,821.77 reinforcing the broader uptrend. As long as the RSI remains above the 50 midpoint, the bullish bias stays intact, while a sustained break below it could signal scope for a deeper retracement.
Fundamental Analysis
Gold ended Wednesday little changed near $4,950 after choppy two-way trading. The metal initially rebounded sharply, testing the $5,100 area amid uncertainty surrounding the Federal Reserve’s future policy direction under Kevin Warsh, which weighed broadly on the U.S. dollar.
Renewed geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and between Russia and Ukraine also lent support to gold prices, alongside concerns about potential economic data disruptions stemming from the U.S. partial government shutdown that concluded on Tuesday.
Sentiment shifted during the U.S. session after the ISM Services PMI signalled firmer inflation pressures, prompting a rebound in the dollar. At the same time, an intensifying tech-sector sell-off on Wall Street unsettled markets, driving demand for the greenback as a safe haven.
Additional USD strength came from renewed weakness in the Japanese yen amid rising fiscal and political concerns, which pushed USD/JPY higher and further supported the dollar.
The USD rebound triggered a sharp pullback in gold, although buyers stepped back in near the key $4,950 psychological support level.
Early Thursday, gold remains under pressure after once again failing above the $5,000 resistance zone. The U.S. dollar continues to advance, hitting fresh two-week highs against its major peers as risk sentiment deteriorates amid a global technology sell-off.
The decline in global data analytics, professional services, and software stocks followed Anthropic’s launch of plug-ins for its Claude Cowork agent, which raised fresh concerns about AI-driven disruption across these industries, according to Reuters.
Looking ahead, the delayed U.S. JOLTS Job Openings report could offer gold some relief, particularly if it reinforces expectations for two Federal Reserve rate cuts this year. Conversely, an extended sell-off in the Japanese yen could spark another wave of heavy selling pressure in gold.
AUD/USD is trading lower below the key 0.7000 psychological level during Thursday’s Asian session, pressured by mixed Australian trade data. The pair is also weighed down by a firm U.S. dollar, which is hovering near a two-week high. With limited domestic catalysts, traders are now turning their attention to the upcoming U.S. JOLTS job openings data for fresh direction.
AUD/USD Technical Outlook
Should bullish momentum intensify, AUD/USD is likely to encounter its next resistance at the 2026 peak of 0.7093 (Jan 29), followed by the 2023 high at 0.7157 (Feb 2).
On the downside, a break below the February low at 0.6908 (Feb 2) may trigger a deeper pullback toward the interim 55-day SMA at 0.6693, ahead of the 2026 trough at 0.6663 (Jan 9). Additional downside support is seen at the 100-day SMA at 0.6628, with stronger support at the 200-day SMA at 0.6563 and the November low at 0.6421 (Nov 21).
Momentum indicators remain constructive and point to further upside potential, although the pair’s overbought readings suggest the risk of a near-term correction. The RSI hovers near 72, while the ADX around 50 continues to signal a strong underlying trend.
Bottom line
AUD/USD continues to be heavily influenced by global risk appetite and developments in China’s economy. A sustained move above the 0.7000 handle would reinforce a more credible bullish outlook.
For the time being, a weaker U.S. dollar, stable—though not particularly strong—domestic data, a still-hawkish tilt from the RBA, and modest backing from China leave the balance of risks skewed toward further upside rather than a pronounced pullback.
Fundamental Analysis
AUD/USD remains entrenched in its broader uptrend despite renewed selling pressure emerging on Wednesday. Any near-term pullbacks are expected to attract buying interest, as the Reserve Bank of Australia continues to project a clearly hawkish stance following its latest rate decision.
The Australian Dollar is struggling to extend Tuesday’s advance, easing back and once again testing the psychologically significant 0.7000 mark.
The retreat comes as the U.S. Dollar regains some traction, with markets having largely absorbed the RBA’s hawkish hike and refocusing attention on U.S. economic and monetary policy developments.
Australia: Growth Is Cooling, Not Collapsing
Recent Australian data have been underwhelming rather than alarming, reinforcing a well-established narrative. Economic activity is slowing, but in a controlled manner, with momentum easing rather than breaking down—supporting the soft-landing view.
January PMI surveys align with this assessment, as both Manufacturing and Services strengthened and remained firmly in expansion territory, at 52.3 and 56.3 respectively. Retail sales continue to show resilience, and although the trade surplus narrowed to A$2.936 billion in November, it remains solidly positive.
Growth is moderating only gradually, following a 0.4% quarter-on-quarter rise in GDP in Q3. On an annual basis, output expanded by 2.1%, matching the RBA’s projections.
The labour market remains a standout performer. Employment jumped by 65.2K in December, while the unemployment rate unexpectedly edged down to 4.1% from 4.3%.
Inflation, however, continues to be the key challenge. December CPI surprised to the upside, with headline inflation accelerating to 3.8% year-on-year from 3.4%. The trimmed mean rose to 3.3%, in line with market expectations but slightly above the RBA’s 3.2% forecast. On a quarterly basis, trimmed mean inflation increased to 3.4% in the year to Q4, marking the highest level since Q3 2024.
China: A Backdrop of Support, Not a Catalyst
China continues to offer a generally supportive backdrop for the Australian dollar, though without the momentum needed to drive a sustained upswing.
Economic growth ran at an annualised 4.5% in the October–December quarter, with quarter-on-quarter expansion at 1.2%. Retail sales rose 0.9% year-on-year in December—respectable, but not particularly compelling.
More recent indicators point to a renewed loss of momentum. Both the NBS Manufacturing PMI and the Non-Manufacturing PMI slipped back into contraction territory in January, at 49.3 and 49.4 respectively.
By contrast, the Caixin surveys painted a slightly brighter picture, with the Manufacturing PMI edging up to 50.3 to remain in expansion, while the Services PMI increased to 52.3.
Trade stood out as a relative bright spot, as the surplus widened sharply to $114.1 billion in December, supported by nearly 7% growth in exports and a solid 5.7% rise in imports.
Inflation signals remain mixed. Consumer prices were unchanged at 0.8% year-on-year in December, while producer prices stayed firmly negative at -1.9%, underscoring that deflationary pressures have yet to fully fade.
For now, the People’s Bank of China is maintaining a cautious stance. Loan Prime Rates were left unchanged in January at 3.00% for the one-year and 3.50% for the five-year, reinforcing expectations that policy support will remain gradual rather than aggressive.
RBA: Leaning Hawkish, In No Hurry to Ease
The RBA raised the cash rate to 3.85% in a decisively hawkish move that largely met expectations. Upward revisions to both growth and inflation forecasts signal firmer economic momentum and increasingly broad-based price pressures. Core inflation is now projected to remain above the 2–3% target band for much of the forecast horizon, reinforcing the case for a restrictive policy stance.
The central message is that inflation is becoming more demand-driven. The RBA cited stronger-than-expected private demand as a key justification for tighter policy, even as productivity growth remains subdued. While Governor Bullock described the move as an “adjustment” rather than the beginning of a renewed hiking cycle, the signal was clear: policymakers are uneasy with the upward drift in inflation.
For markets, this implies interest rates are likely to stay higher for longer, limiting the scope for near-term easing. From an FX perspective, this provides marginal support for the Australian dollar—particularly against low-yielding peers—even as the RBA’s emphasis on full employment tempers the likelihood of an aggressive tightening phase.
In the wake of the decision, markets are now pricing in nearly 40 basis points of additional tightening by year-end.
Positioning: Shifting Sentiment Toward the AUD
The latest positioning data suggest the worst of the bearish sentiment toward the Australian dollar may have passed. CFTC figures show that non-commercial traders have returned to a net long stance for the first time since early December 2024, although the position remains modest at just over 7.1K contracts in the week ending January 27.
Open interest has also climbed to its highest level in several weeks, exceeding 252K contracts, indicating that traders are beginning to re-engage with the market. That said, the move appears tentative rather than a strong conviction call on a sustained appreciation in the AUD, at least for now.
Key Drivers Ahead
Near term: Market attention is shifting back toward the United States. Incoming economic data, tariff-related developments, and ongoing geopolitical headlines are likely to drive movements in the U.S. dollar. For the Australian dollar, the key swing factors remain domestic labour market and inflation data, and how these shape expectations for the RBA’s next policy decision.
Risks: The AUD remains highly sensitive to global risk sentiment. A sharp deterioration in risk appetite, renewed concerns over China’s outlook, or an unexpected resurgence in the U.S. dollar could quickly unwind recent gains.
The slide followed heavy losses in Asian and U.S. technology stocks, as fears that AI investment may be peaking—alongside stretched valuations and slowing earnings growth—pushed investors away from risk assets.
What to know:
Bitcoin dropped as much as 7.5% during Asian trading on Thursday, falling below $71,000 as a global tech-led selloff spilled over into crypto markets.
The move came after sharp declines in Asian and U.S. tech shares, driven by concerns over cooling AI spending, elevated valuations, and weakening earnings momentum.
Bitcoin’s latest fall, alongside steep losses in silver and gold, highlights its behavior as a high-beta risk asset. Thin liquidity and rising macro uncertainty have amplified price swings, pointing to fragile investor conviction rather than a definitive trend reversal.
Bitcoin fell below the $71,000 threshold during Asian trading on Thursday as a renewed global selloff in technology stocks spilled over into crypto markets, dampening hopes of a sustained recovery after last week’s sharp volatility.
The world’s largest cryptocurrency dropped as much as 7.5% over the past 24 hours, briefly touching lows near $70,700 before trimming some losses, according to CoinDesk data.
The decline followed steep losses across Asian equity markets, where rising concerns about slowing artificial intelligence spending, elevated valuations, and weakening earnings momentum pushed investors further away from risk assets. MSCI’s Asia technology index fell for the fifth time in six sessions, led by a roughly 4% drop in South Korea’s Kospi as AI-linked heavyweight stocks came under pressure.
Weakness in Asia followed a selloff in U.S. markets, where the Nasdaq slid after underwhelming earnings from companies including Alphabet, Qualcomm, and Arm reinforced fears that the AI investment cycle may be peaking sooner than expected.
Bitcoin has increasingly behaved like a high-beta risk asset during equity-driven downturns, particularly when liquidity is thin and macroeconomic uncertainty intensifies.
The latest slide comes after choppy price action earlier in the week, when bitcoin dropped toward $73,000 before rebounding above $76,000—moves that signaled fragile investor conviction rather than a decisive trend reversal.
Pressure was exacerbated by sharp moves in commodities. Silver plunged as much as 17%, while gold fell more than 3%, extending a severe unwind that has already triggered significant liquidations in tokenized metals products across crypto trading platforms.
Asian stock markets declined on Thursday, pulling back from record highs reached earlier in the week, as heightened volatility in global technology shares and concerns over AI-driven disruption dampened investor sentiment.
The retreat followed a sharp overnight selloff in U.S. technology stocks, with the Nasdaq underperforming broader market indexes. Meanwhile, U.S. stock index futures were largely flat during early Asian trading hours on Thursday.
AI fears drag tech stocks lower
The decline follows a volatile week for technology and semiconductor stocks, as rising concerns that rapid advances in artificial intelligence could disrupt established business models and squeeze profit margins prompted investors to take profits after a strong rally.
South Korea’s benchmark KOSPI fell 3.7% after hitting record highs over the previous two sessions. Shares of Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix dropped more than 5% each as investors moved to lock in recent gains.
In China, the blue-chip CSI 300 index and the Shanghai Composite both slipped nearly 1%. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index declined 1.2%, while the Hang Seng TECH Index fell 1.5%.
Japanese stocks slip, earnings help stem losses
Japanese equities edged lower on Thursday, with the Nikkei 225 slipping 1% from record highs reached earlier in the week as technology stocks followed overnight losses on Wall Street.
The decline was cushioned by strong gains in select stocks. Panasonic shares surged after the company reported solid earnings and issued upbeat guidance, while Renesas Electronics jumped following the announcement that it will sell its timing business to U.S.-based SiTime in a deal valued at around $3 billion.
The broader TOPIX index was largely unchanged, highlighting relative resilience outside the technology sector.
Elsewhere in the region, Singapore’s Straits Times Index eased 0.4% after closing at a record high in the previous session. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 also slipped 0.4%, tracking regional weakness as investors digested trade data released earlier in the day.
Australia’s trade surplus widened less than expected in December, reflecting modest export growth and softer imports, which reinforced concerns over uneven global demand.
Futures linked to India’s Nifty 50 were slightly lower, down 0.3%.
SoftBank Group Corp. shares fell sharply on Thursday, tracking losses in Arm Holdings after the British chip designer—one of the Japanese conglomerate’s largest investments—reported weaker-than-expected earnings for the December quarter.
SoftBank was also swept up in a broader selloff in technology stocks, as growing uncertainty surrounding artificial intelligence and its implications for the software sector weighed on sentiment. Shares of the group dropped as much as 7% to 3,909 yen, making SoftBank one of the biggest drags on the Nikkei 225 index, which declined 1%.
The slide followed an 8% drop in Arm’s shares in after-hours U.S. trading. Arm posted disappointing licensing revenue for the December quarter. The company generates income by licensing its chip designs to major customers such as Nvidia and Apple, as well as collecting ongoing royalties on those technologies.
Pressure on Arm was compounded by a cautious outlook from Qualcomm, which warned that rising global memory prices—driven by AI-related demand—could weigh on smartphone sales in 2026. Such a trend would be negative for Arm, whose chip architectures are widely used across the smartphone industry.
SoftBank currently owns an 87.1% stake in Arm following the chip designer’s return to public markets in 2023. Arm remains one of SoftBank’s most significant holdings and a central pillar of the group’s long-term ambitions in artificial intelligence and semiconductor technology.
Stellar continued its corrective move on Thursday after failing to reclaim a previously broken trendline. Derivatives data points to mounting weakness, with short positions increasing even as open interest declines. The technical picture remains bearish, suggesting sellers retain control and could push the price into a deeper correction.
Stellar (XLM) continued its corrective decline on Thursday, trading below $0.167 at the time of writing after facing rejection at a key resistance level. Derivatives indicators signal growing weakness, with short positions increasing even as open interest declines. From a technical perspective, bearish momentum remains dominant, leaving XLM vulnerable to further downside and potential new lows.
Derivatives data signals downside bias for XLM
CoinGlass data shows XLM’s long-to-short ratio at 0.85 on Thursday, close to its lowest level in a month. A reading below one indicates a bearish skew in market positioning, with a greater share of traders betting on further price declines.
Stellar’s futures open interest fell to $95 million on Thursday, marking its lowest level since November 2024 and continuing a steady decline seen since the start of the year. The reduction in open interest signals diminishing trader participation and reinforces the broader bearish outlook for XLM.
Stellar Price Forecast: XLM deepens correction after slipping below key support
Stellar fell more than 13% last week, closing below the lower boundary of a falling wedge pattern on Saturday. Since then, XLM has repeatedly faced rejection near the broken trendline through Wednesday, extending losses by more than 5%. As of Thursday, the token is trading around $0.169.
If the corrective move continues, XLM could slide further toward its 2025 yearly low at $0.160, recorded on October 10.
Momentum indicators continue to point lower. The daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 26, signaling oversold conditions and strong bearish pressure. Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) has remained in a bearish crossover since mid-January, with expanding red histogram bars below the zero line reinforcing the negative technical bias.
Alternatively, a recovery in XLM could see prices push higher toward the lower boundary of the trendline, near the $0.180 level.
Tech just suffered a selloff of a different kind. This was not about rates, recession fears, or a routine earnings disappointment. It was the market catching its own reflection in the AI mirror—and flinching.
When confidence cracks, the Nasdaq does not rotate. It drops the floor. The S&P followed along, dutifully diversified in theory, while tech still steers the wheel.
The trigger was AMD, but the message was broader. In a fully priced bull market, “good” results are not good enough when investors have already paid in advance for perfection. When expectations stretch into the stratosphere, even a strong quarter feels like a letdown. AMD was not punished for weakness—it was punished for failing to deliver magic commensurate with the valuation it carried.
What followed was less about fundamentals than positioning. This was the market unwinding a narrative that had become too tidy, too crowded, too self-assured. When everyone leans the same way, even a minor wobble turns into a shove.
And the shove traveled fast. Once the story lost its grip, selling turned indiscriminate. Yesterday’s AI champions were treated like stale trades. Hardware names sank alongside software darlings. Picks, shovels, and miners all landed in the same risk bucket as investors dumped exposure wholesale.
This was never just a chip story. The real fault line runs through software—and it is psychological. The market is now entertaining a new fear: not that AI lifts all boats, but that it punctures the hulls of those that assumed they were unsinkable.
Software cracked first because belief ran deepest there. It was the cleanest narrative in the market—AI as a quiet margin expander, a tailwind that boosted earnings without disrupting the underlying structure. That assumption is now being dismantled in real time.
The uncomfortable inversion is coming into focus. The companies that digitized the fastest may also be the most exposed. AI is not arriving as a polite consultant. It is entering as a tireless shadow workforce—one that never negotiates, never sleeps, and learns faster than corporate hierarchies can adapt. And it writes code, too.
That is why this moment feels like a break, not a revision. When markets stop debating how much something earns and start questioning why it exists, prices do not drift lower. They fracture.
You can see it in the tape. This is not a careful repricing—it is an exit rush. One day the debate is about margins; the next it is about whether the product becomes a feature inside a larger model.
Once that fear enters the room, it spreads quickly across anything tied to monetized knowledge work—data platforms, marketing software, legal tools, analytics, even media and advertising adjacencies. If AI does the work, who gets paid for it? That is the question markets are stress-testing in real time.
For years, software earned its margins by controlling workflow—owning the screen, the process, the friction. Humans did the thinking; software rented them the tools and charged a recurring toll. Predictable. Scalable. Defensible. That doctrine is now under review.
Bitcoin and gold sliding alongside tech is telling. When risk sentiment turns, speculative layers lose sponsorship first. It is not ideology—it is mechanics. When leverage gets pulled back, froth goes first.
This does not mean tech is finished. It means tech is being tested.
Every cycle follows the same arc: markets fall in love with innovation, price it as destiny, then recoil when destiny arrives with disruption and bills. AI is no longer just a growth story—it is a competitive weapon. That creates winners and losers, not a rising tide. The trade is shifting from owning the theme to owning the survivors.
This is what a regime change looks like within a sector. Euphoria gives way to scrutiny. Momentum yields to forensic analysis. Markets stop paying for possibility and start paying for proof.
Ironically, the most technologically advanced firms often feel the shock first—they sit closest to the blast radius. If your business automates knowledge work and a universal automation engine shows up, you do not get to pretend the rules stayed the same.
Panic, of course, is rarely precise. Markets swing the hammer before identifying the nail. These moments tend to overshoot because fear moves faster than analysis.
This looks less like the end of AI and more like a narrative reckoning. The market is re-evaluating who captures value, who loses the toll booth, and who gets displaced.
AI is not killing tech. It is forcing tech to prove it has a moat—not just a story.
When markets stop buying dreams, they start auditing business models.
Bitcoin fell to a 15-month low on Wednesday, sliding toward the $72,000 level amid a broad-based selloff across global financial markets.
The world’s largest cryptocurrency dropped as much as 5.4% to $72,047, its weakest level since Nov. 6, 2024—the day after Donald Trump’s U.S. presidential election victory. Bitcoin has now shed more than 40% from its record high reached in October 2025.
While earlier declines this week were largely driven by crypto-specific liquidations, Wednesday’s losses appeared to be part of a wider risk-off move. Global markets saw coordinated selling pressure, with the Nasdaq 100 falling more than 2% as software stocks, semiconductor names, and other interest rate–sensitive sectors came under pressure.
Bitcoin on Tuesday wiped out all of the gains it had made since President Donald Trump’s election victory in early November 2024. Selling pressure continued into Wednesday, briefly dragging the world’s largest cryptocurrency below the $72,000 level.
The digital asset has now plunged roughly 42% from its record high above $126,000 reached last October, firmly placing it in bear-market territory.
Bitcoin surged through 2025 on expectations of a more crypto-friendly regulatory environment under the Trump administration, strong inflows into spot exchange-traded funds, and growing institutional adoption. Since peaking, however, prices have fallen sharply, with losses accelerating in 2026.
Citi Research analyst Alex Saunders said downside sensitivity to equity markets, heightened geopolitical risks, and long-position liquidations have weighed heavily on bitcoin and the broader crypto market.
Saunders also noted a clear slowdown in inflows to U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs since Oct. 10 last year, which he views as a key source of incremental demand. The drop in new money has coincided with increased caution among long-term holders, who have grown more concerned about cyclical weakness in bitcoin.
Nearing critical levels
Bitcoin slid as much as 5% on Wednesday to an intraday low of $71,913.4, marking its weakest level since early November 2024.
Citi Research analyst Alex Saunders said bitcoin is now nearing critical price thresholds. He noted that prices have fallen below Citi’s estimated average U.S. spot ETF entry level of $81,600 and are approaching the roughly $70,000 level that prevailed ahead of the U.S. presidential election.
Saunders pointed to U.S. legislation passed by the House in July 2025—currently stalled in the Senate—as a potential catalyst for renewed investor interest. He said there has been some progress early this year, with the Senate Finance Committee releasing a draft bill intended to be reconciled with the House-approved CLARITY Act, although the proposal has yet to gain broad support and a committee vote has been delayed. The Senate Agriculture Committee has also advanced its own version of the legislation.
According to Saunders, positive developments on the regulatory front could provide a meaningful boost to market sentiment and capital inflows, citing past examples such as stronger ETF demand following the U.S. election and the passage of the GENIUS Act in July 2025.
No signs of structural stress in crypto markets
Analysts say bitcoin’s latest selloff does not signal deeper structural problems, but rather reflects the normal ebb and flow of bull and bear cycles.
“Recent price movements in bitcoin don’t suggest that anything has broken in the crypto market—they simply mirror the current stage of the broader macroeconomic cycle,” said Gil Rosen, co-founder of the Blockchain Builders fund, in comments to Investing.com. He noted that earlier gains had overshot reality, with markets pricing in an unrealistically smooth rally. The subsequent decline, Rosen added, was not driven by crypto-specific factors, but by external pressures including geopolitics, tariffs, and policy uncertainty. As institutional investors now play a larger role, bitcoin increasingly trades like a risk asset, making it more vulnerable when macro conditions deteriorate.
Nicholas Motz, CIO of Soil.co and CEO of ORQO.digital, echoed this view, arguing that the sharp unwinding of precious metals positions late last week triggered a broader risk-off move across asset classes.
“When investors face pressure in traditional safe havens, they often sell their most liquid and profitable holdings—such as bitcoin—to offset losses elsewhere,” Motz said. He characterized the recent decline as a forced deleveraging episode rather than a fundamental change in long-term crypto adoption.
Nasdaq has put forward a proposal to accelerate the inclusion of newly listed large companies into its indexes, aiming to reduce the lengthy delays that have often kept major IPOs and exchange transfers out of benchmark indexes for months.
The move comes as 2026 is shaping up to be a particularly active year for high-profile listings, with potential IPOs from companies such as Elon Musk’s SpaceX and artificial intelligence startup Anthropic. According to a source familiar with the discussions, advisers to SpaceX—following its recent acquisition of xAI—have contacted major index providers, including Nasdaq, to explore earlier-than-usual index entry. SpaceX did not immediately respond to a request for comment, and Nasdaq declined to comment.
Under the proposed “Fast Entry” rule, a newly listed Nasdaq company would qualify for expedited inclusion if its market capitalization ranks within the top 40 of existing index constituents. Eligible companies would receive at least five trading days’ notice and be added to the index after 15 trading sessions.
The proposal would waive the usual seasoning and liquidity requirements. Rather than replacing an existing constituent, the new entrant would temporarily expand the index’s size until the next annual reconstitution, consistent with Nasdaq’s approach to handling spin-offs.
Michael Ashley Schulman, partner and chief investment officer at Running Point Capital Advisors, said faster inclusion would enhance Nasdaq’s appeal for large issuers by improving liquidity and narrowing bid-ask spreads through greater passive fund ownership.
The lack of a fast-track mechanism has frequently created a gap between index composition and broader market realities, particularly given the scale and market influence of newly listed giants. Investors also expect major additions to be reflected promptly in the index, something the current framework often fails to deliver.
The proposed rule could prove especially consequential in 2026, as artificial intelligence–driven technology leaders may seek valuations in the hundreds of billions of dollars. Nasdaq remains the preferred exchange for U.S. technology heavyweights, including trillion-dollar companies such as Alphabet and Nvidia.
The Nasdaq 100 index, which includes the exchange’s largest listed firms, is closely watched by investors and analysts and is widely viewed as a key gauge of the health of technology and growth-focused sectors.
“As this proposal shows, Nasdaq is signaling that no company is too large and no system is too established to be improved,” Schulman said.
Gold prices gave up early gains and declined during Asian trading on Thursday, pressured by a firmer U.S. dollar as investors positioned ahead of major central bank meetings and key U.S. labor market data. Reduced safe-haven demand also weighed on bullion after the U.S. and Iran confirmed plans to hold talks on Friday, easing fears of an imminent military escalation in the Middle East.
Spot gold slid 1.1% to $4,912.26 an ounce by 21:17 ET (02:17 GMT), while April gold futures fell 0.4% to $4,929.25 an ounce. Prices had climbed as high as $5,092.31 an ounce on Wednesday before surrendering most of those gains and slipping back below the $5,000 level by the session’s close.
The pullback came as diplomatic developments between Washington and Tehran helped calm geopolitical concerns. At the same time, a stronger dollar weighed on precious metals, with traders favoring the greenback ahead of interest rate decisions from the Bank of England and the European Central Bank, both scheduled for Thursday.
Additional support for the dollar came from anticipation of U.S. nonfarm payrolls data due on Friday, which could influence expectations for the Federal Reserve’s interest rate path. The greenback also extended gains from last week following President Donald Trump’s nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair. Warsh is widely seen as a less dovish candidate, potentially signaling a tighter monetary stance even as rates decline.
Other precious metals also retreated after a brief rebound earlier in the week. Spot silver plunged 6.9% to $82.3130 an ounce after rallying nearly 6% in the previous session. While silver continues to benefit from its dual role as an industrial and precious metal and has significantly outperformed in recent months, it has faced sharp losses over the past week amid profit-taking and dollar strength.
Spot platinum fell 3% to $2,167.59 an ounce, while benchmark copper futures on the London Metal Exchange slipped 0.6% to $12,986 per tonne.
The Chinese yuan has recently attracted strong demand, and Bank of America Securities believes this momentum could become a key driver of foreign exchange markets in both the near and longer term. On Tuesday, the People’s Bank of China set the yuan’s daily midpoint at 6.9533 per U.S. dollar—75 pips stronger than the prior fix—marking its firmest level in nearly 33 months and breaking below the 6.96 threshold. BofA analysts cited solid export performance and firmer policy guidance as reasons for upgrading their USD/CNY forecasts to 6.7 for the end of Q3 and Q4, from 6.8.
According to the bank, the yuan’s strength may have broader implications for global FX markets, as signs emerge that appreciation is spreading across trade-weighted measures, including the CFETS basket, and increasingly influencing emerging-market currencies. While correlation does not prove causation, BofA noted that the alignment between bilateral and trade-weighted CNY gains is becoming difficult to ignore. A softer U.S. dollar is further reinforcing EM currency strength alongside the yuan.
High U.S. tariffs have encouraged China to redirect exports from the U.S. toward Europe, a shift reflected in the European Union’s expanding trade deficit with China, now nearing levels last seen during the Covid period. Although part of this imbalance stems from a weaker yuan versus the euro, unlike during the pandemic, the widening deficit has not led to euro weakness. Instead, EUR/CNY has climbed to a ten-year high, intensifying pressure on European exporters and renewing calls for yuan appreciation. BofA expects Chinese export momentum into Europe to continue in the short term, though heightened EU scrutiny and anti-dumping measures could pose challenges over the medium term, potentially placing downward pressure on EUR/CNY.
The case for yuan appreciation is gaining traction, reinforced most recently by comments from President Xi emphasizing the goal of building a “powerful currency” that is widely used in global trade, investment, and foreign exchange markets, and that ultimately achieves reserve-currency status. This builds on Xi’s 2020 remarks outlining China’s ambition to reach high-income status by 2025 and significantly expand economic output by 2035. However, BofA cautioned that aggressive currency appreciation could lead to overvaluation and pose risks to financial stability.
In this context, the outcome of U.S.–China competition in artificial intelligence will be critical for productivity growth and the long-term sustainability of relative currency valuations. Given the continued dominance of the U.S. dollar and the U.S.-centered global financial system, BofA expects USD leadership to persist over the next decade. While full internationalization of the renminbi appears unlikely, a more realistic approach may involve expanding CNY usage across the Global South and Asia, potentially reducing the need for a sharply stronger yuan.
The U.S. dollar held steady on Wednesday after a sharp rebound from near four-year lows, while the euro weakened following the release of key regional inflation data.
By 11:54 ET (16:54 GMT), the Dollar Index was up 0.3% at 97.69 and has gained more than 1% since Kevin Warsh was nominated as the next Federal Reserve chair.
The dollar remained resilient despite softer labor market data.
The dollar got a lift late last week after Kevin Warsh was nominated to succeed Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, with markets viewing him as more hawkish and supportive of shrinking the Fed’s balance sheet.
Attention has now turned to Warsh’s Senate confirmation and the potential implications of his appointment for U.S. interest rates when he is set to take over from Powell in May.
A brief government shutdown had little impact on the greenback, as lawmakers approved additional funding this week, though it did delay the release of key employment data originally due on Friday.
Traders also shrugged off a soft ADP payrolls report for January released on Wednesday.
Eurozone consumer prices fall.
In Europe, the euro slipped slightly, with EUR/USD down 0.1% at 1.1802, despite the release of weaker-than-expected preliminary eurozone inflation data. Consumer prices eased to an annual rate of 1.7% last month, below the ECB’s 2% target and down from 2% in December.
The data did little to alter expectations that the European Central Bank will keep interest rates unchanged at 2% for a fifth consecutive meeting. Policymakers have recently expressed concern about the euro’s rapid rise against the dollar and its dampening effect on inflation. The euro touched a 4½-year high of 1.2084 last week.
According to Macquarie strategist Thierry Wizman, the euro is being pulled by opposing forces. Falling inflation could pave the way for policy easing in 2026, potentially weighing on the currency as euro area rates lag those elsewhere. However, this is being offset by improving growth prospects, supported by stronger survey data and a more favorable political backdrop, including eased budget tensions in France and renewed reform momentum in Germany. Wizman said stronger growth could ultimately provide greater support for the euro than lower rates would undermine it.
GBP/USD fell 0.3% to 1.3657, as the Bank of England was also expected to leave interest rates unchanged at its policy meeting on Thursday.
The yen remained under pressure.
In Asia, USD/JPY rose 0.5% to 156.55, leaving the pair near a two-week high.
The yen faced renewed pressure this week after comments from Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi cast doubt on whether Tokyo would step in to support the currency. Attention has shifted to a snap lower house election on February 8, with Takaichi’s party expected to secure a strong victory and strengthen her grip on parliament.
Elsewhere, USD/CNY edged up to 6.9415, hovering near its lowest level since mid-2023. AUD/USD slipped 0.4% to 0.6988 after rallying earlier in the week on a hawkish Reserve Bank of Australia meeting. The RBA raised interest rates by 25 basis points and lifted its growth and inflation forecasts for the year.
Elon Musk’s SpaceX is seeking early inclusion in major stock indexes ahead of a planned IPO later this year, aiming to boost liquidity and support its share price, the Wall Street Journal reported.
Advisers to the company have approached index providers such as Nasdaq to explore faster-than-usual entry into benchmark indexes, which typically require newly listed firms to wait several months. SpaceX is looking to bypass these rules as it prepares for what could be the largest U.S. IPO on record, targeting a valuation above $1 trillion, up from an estimated $800 billion previously.
Early index inclusion could attract inflows from index-tracking funds and ETFs, helping stabilize the stock in the volatile period following its debut.
Oil prices fell in Asian trading on Thursday as traders pared back risk premiums after the U.S. and Iran confirmed talks would take place on Friday.
Crude was also weighed down by a stronger U.S. dollar, which firmed ahead of key January nonfarm payrolls data due on Friday. Attention was additionally focused on major central bank meetings in Europe and the UK later on Thursday.
Prices reversed some of Wednesday’s strong gains as investors locked in profits, though oil remained on track for a weekly decline after earlier losses driven by a broader selloff in commodity markets.
Brent crude futures for April slipped 1.4% to $68.50 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate futures fell 1.3% to $63.80 a barrel by 20:42 ET (01:42 GMT).
Earlier, oil had found support from data showing U.S. inventories declined more than expected last week, as extreme cold weather disrupted production across the country.
U.S.– Iran talks are set to be held in Oman on Friday.
U.S. and Iranian officials are due to meet in Oman on Friday, as confirmed by both sides this week, though disagreements persist over the scope of the talks.
Washington has repeatedly pushed for the discussions to include Iran’s missile program, while Tehran has said it is only willing to negotiate on its nuclear activities. These differences had earlier raised doubts about whether the meeting would go ahead, a factor that helped lift oil prices earlier in the week.
Markets have also priced in a higher risk premium for crude amid concerns that U.S. President Donald Trump could follow through on threats to launch new strikes against Iran.
A stronger dollar weighs on markets as investors await central bank meetings and upcoming payrolls data.
A firmer dollar added pressure to oil prices, as the greenback attracted strong demand this week.
Expectations around interest rate decisions from the Bank of England and the European Central Bank on Thursday prompted traders to move into the dollar, while attention also remained on upcoming U.S. nonfarm payrolls data.
The dollar rebounded sharply from near four-year lows after President Donald Trump nominated Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve chair, a choice seen as less dovish by markets.
Investors are now focused on January nonfarm payrolls data due on Friday, which is expected to provide clearer signals on the future path of U.S. interest rates.
U.S. stock index futures ticked up slightly on Wednesday night after a weaker close on Wall Street, as technology stocks remained under pressure amid concerns over AI-driven disruption, while investors assessed Alphabet’s earnings report and new labor market data. S&P 500 futures rose 0.3% to 6,923.0, Nasdaq 100 futures advanced 0.4% to 25,088.75, and Dow Jones futures were mostly unchanged at 49,589.0.
Technology stocks extended their sell-off, while investors turned their attention to Alphabet’s earnings report.
In regular trading, the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite fell 0.5% and 1.5%, respectively, as renewed selling pressure hit heavyweight technology and AI-related stocks. In contrast, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose about 0.5% as investors shifted toward defensive and value names.
Technology and AI shares led the decline, extending a sector-wide selloff that has persisted into early February. Software and services stocks slid amid growing concerns that rapid advances in AI could disrupt traditional business models and squeeze margins for established companies.
Advanced Micro Devices was a key drag on market sentiment, with its shares plunging around 17% after the company reported earnings and issued guidance that failed to meet lofty market expectations. Although AMD pointed to strong AI-driven demand, investors focused on pricing pressures and intensifying competition in data centers, resulting in the stock’s sharpest one-day drop in years.
Focus also turned to Alphabet’s earnings after the close. The Google parent posted solid advertising revenue and reaffirmed plans for significant investment in AI infrastructure, but caution lingered over the near-term impact on profitability. Alphabet shares fell more than 1% in extended trading.
Meanwhile, Qualcomm shares slid nearly 10% after hours after the company forecast second-quarter revenue and profit below Wall Street estimates, citing a global memory chip shortage expected to weigh on smartphone sales and broader device demand.
U.S. private-sector payrolls rose by less than expected in January, signaling some cooling in the labor market.
Broader market sentiment was also influenced by economic data. Figures released on Wednesday showed private-sector employment increased by just 22,000 jobs last month, well short of the 50,000 gain expected, following a downwardly revised rise of 37,000 in December.
A brief government shutdown led to the postponement of the closely watched monthly jobs report, which had been scheduled for release on Friday.
Investors are now turning their attention to weekly jobless claims data due on Thursday, which should offer a near-term snapshot of labor market conditions ahead of the delayed nonfarm payrolls report.
Silver prices fell sharply during Asian trading on Thursday, dragging the broader precious metals complex lower as renewed selling pressure erased most of this week’s brief rebound.
Spot silver plunged as much as 16.7% to $73.5565 an ounce, moving back toward the lows seen after last week’s selloff, while March silver futures slid more than 10% to $73.383 per ounce. The sudden drop unfolded during the Asian session and coincided with a modest rise in the U.S. dollar.
According to Chris Weston, head of research at Pepperstone, the selloff originated in China, beginning with a decline in Shanghai silver futures before spreading to CME futures and spot markets.
Precious metals have been under pressure from a stronger dollar over the past week, as the greenback rebounded from near four-year lows after markets interpreted President Donald Trump’s nominee for the next Federal Reserve Chair, Kevin Warsh, as less dovish than expected. This sentiment has continued to weigh on metal prices.
Meanwhile, traders remained broadly positioned in favor of the dollar ahead of key European central bank meetings on Thursday and the release of U.S. nonfarm payrolls data on Friday.
On December 7, 2025, we advised maintaining a market-weight stance rather than an overweight position in the S&P 500’s Information Technology and Communication Services sectors. Since then, their combined share of the index’s market capitalization has fallen from a record 46.7% on November 5, 2025, to 43.9% as of Monday (see chart). This decline has occurred even as their combined contribution to S&P 500 earnings continued to climb, reaching a new high of 39.8% by Monday.
Despite strong growth in the two sectors’ combined forward earnings, their aggregate forward P/E multiple has compressed from 28.9 on November 5, 2025, to 24.3 currently (see chart).
On December 7 last year, we argued that AI was intensifying competition among the Magnificent Seven, compelling them to sharply ramp up investment in AI infrastructure. On that basis, we recommended an underweight position. We expect the primary beneficiaries of this dynamic to be the broader S&P 500—often referred to as the “Impressive 493”—which are leveraging AI tools to boost productivity rather than competing on infrastructure scale.
Technology has always been a highly competitive industry, and AI is intensifying that dynamic even further. In my 2018 book Predicting the Markets, I described the tech sector as a textbook case of “creative destruction,” where new innovations relentlessly displace older technologies.
More recently, software stocks have come under pressure as AI tools become increasingly proficient at writing code (see charts). While forward earnings for the sector have climbed to record levels, investors have compressed valuation multiples in response to the growing competitive threat posed by AI.
On Tuesday, software stocks were hit particularly hard after Anthropic unveiled new tools for its Cowork product. While it remains too early to assess their practical impact, investors responded by marking down valuation multiples across the software sector.
By contrast, semiconductor stocks have proven relatively resilient, even as the industry’s forward P/E multiple has declined amid a sharp surge in forward earnings (see chart). Competitive pressures are intensifying, particularly among chips designed to rival Nvidia’s (NASDAQ: NVDA) GPUs. At the same time, tight memory supply has driven prices sharply higher, though history suggests that once capacity expands to meet demand, those prices are likely to retreat.
Shares of semiconductor equipment makers have continued to climb, alongside rising earnings and expanding valuation multiples (see chart). This strength reflects the industry’s relative insulation from competitive pressures, as these companies benefit whenever demand is strong for equipment that enables chipmakers to expand production capacity.
Stocks came under heavy pressure, even as the S&P 500 ended the session with a relatively modest 85-basis-point decline. Losses were concentrated in technology and software, with the Nasdaq 100 sliding more than 1.5% and the XLK technology ETF falling over 2%. The selloff in software has been particularly severe, with several names now trading below their 2022 lows. Adobe, for instance, closed at its weakest level since October 2019.
In some ways, the current environment echoes the shift from 2021 into 2022. The crucial difference is that the Federal Reserve is now in an easing cycle, whereas policy was tightening back then. Oil prices were also racing toward $100 at the time, while this week they have struggled to stay above $60. Even so, the pattern is familiar: the Software ETF (IGV) peaked well ahead of the S&P 500 and helped pull the broader market lower, a dynamic that has also played out across several other market segments.
Pressure has also resurfaced in private equity stocks, with many now trading below their November lows.
Meanwhile, consumer staples—tracked by XLP—are surging to record highs in an unusually sharp move, reinforcing the view that markets are undergoing a broader re-rating of risk. This shift may reflect growing expectations of multiple compression, driven either by concerns that a new Fed chair could be less supportive of markets and liquidity, or by an increasing tendency among investors to separate winners from losers in the AI race.
I see this mainly as a re-pricing of risk and the early phase of multiple compression, a view that is reinforced by Microsoft’s (NASDAQ: MSFT) P/E ratio.
The brief sense of relief following the easing selloff in metals quickly faded after news emerged that Anthropic—an AI startup backed by Amazon and Google—had launched a new AI tool capable of performing legal and research tasks traditionally handled via paid databases. The announcement rattled markets, sparking fears that AI-driven disruption is accelerating and threatening the core business models of software firms that provide data analytics and decision-support tools to law firms, banks, and corporations.
The result was a renewed bout of panic selling, particularly across software stocks. In Europe, RELX and London Stock Exchange Group plunged 14% and 12% respectively, while Thomson Reuters dropped 15%. Experian, Pearson, and Sage were also caught in the downdraft. In the US, shares of FactSet, Salesforce, and Adobe fell sharply, with Adobe sliding to its lowest level in nearly six years as concerns mounted that AI competition could severely undermine parts of its core business. Even tech heavyweights were not spared: Microsoft declined 2.87% and is now roughly 25% below its November peak.
Broader technology markets also weakened. VanEck’s Semiconductor ETF fell 2.5%, while Google—despite being one of the leading AI beneficiaries—slipped 1.22% after recently hitting a record high. The selloff spilled into Asia as well, with Tencent down around 3%. South Korea’s Kospi, however, largely avoided the turmoil, supported by continued strength in Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix amid tight memory supply and strong pricing power.
On the earnings front, AMD reported a solid beat, posting revenue above $10 billion and adjusted EPS of $1.53, both exceeding expectations. Growth was driven by robust demand for data-center and AI products, alongside solid performance in PCs and gaming. Despite impressive figures—including 39% growth in data-center revenue and 34% growth in PCs—and an upbeat message from CEO Lisa Su, the company’s outlook failed to meet elevated market expectations. AMD shares fell roughly 8% in after-hours trading.
Nasdaq futures are modestly lower at the time of writing, suggesting no immediate intensification of the software-led selloff. Still, recent earnings reactions highlight a broader issue: even companies delivering strong results are being punished, as investors demand ever-higher performance to justify stretched valuations.
Attention now turns to upcoming earnings from Google and Qualcomm later today, with Amazon reporting after Thursday’s close. By week’s end, markets may have a clearer picture of where the AI trade is headed. So far, enthusiasm has been muted—Meta, for instance, failed to sustain its post-earnings rally despite AI-driven revenue growth.
It increasingly appears that the AI rally is being unwound, largely irrespective of earnings strength.
Elsewhere, geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran escalated after reports that the US Navy shot down an Iranian drone approaching a US aircraft carrier in the Arabian Sea. That development pushed US crude prices up about 2.4%, with prices now consolidating just below $64 per barrel. While geopolitically driven spikes can offer short-term trading opportunities, risks remain skewed to the upside given the fragile situation.
Zooming out, gold has climbed back above $5,000 per ounce. In the past, this might have signaled a classic flight to safety amid equity volatility and geopolitical stress. Today, however, it is less clear whether this reflects genuine risk aversion or a rapid rotation from one crowded trade—AI—into another—metals.
Safe-haven options appear increasingly constrained. Gold remains volatile, US 10-year yields are elevated amid debt concerns and potential further Fed balance-sheet tightening, and the Japanese yen continues to struggle. USDJPY is testing its 50-day moving average near 156.30 and could push higher ahead of the weekend’s snap election. That leaves the Swiss franc, with USDCHF encountering resistance near 0.78. Meanwhile, EURUSD is gradually recovering after holding support near 1.1780, while sterling is consolidating above 1.37.
Both moves are largely driven by dollar dynamics. The dollar index has come under renewed pressure ahead of US labor data, though the Bureau of Labor Statistics has announced it will not release payroll figures this Friday due to a partial government shutdown. As a result, today’s ADP report takes on added significance and is expected to show roughly 46,000 private-sector job gains—a weak figure that would reinforce the view that US economic strength remains narrowly concentrated in AI-related investment rather than broad-based growth. This two-speed economy complicates the Fed’s policy outlook.
Soft labor data would likely support a more dovish Federal Reserve stance, which—absent policy shifts from the ECB or the Bank of England—could further bolster the euro and sterling against the dollar. I continue to expect EURUSD to move back toward, and ultimately above, the 1.20 level.
Zurich Insurance Group AG (SIX: ZURN) and Beazley PLC (LON: BEZG) have agreed in principle on the main financial terms of a potential all-cash offer, valuing the UK-based insurer at around £8 billion. Under the proposed transaction, Beazley shareholders would receive up to 1,335 pence per share, consisting of 1,310 pence in cash plus allowable dividends of up to 25 pence for the year ending December 31, 2025.
The indicative offer implies a premium of almost 60% to Beazley’s closing price of 820 pence on January 16, the final trading day before the offer period commenced, and represents a 34.6% uplift to the company’s record high of 973 pence reached on June 6, 2025.
Beazley’s board said it would be “minded to recommend” the proposal to shareholders should a firm offer be made on the outlined financial terms, subject to agreement on remaining conditions and the execution of definitive documentation.
The proposed deal would bring together two complementary operations, forming a leading global specialty insurance group with roughly $15 billion in gross written premiums, supported by Beazley’s strong position at Lloyd’s of London.
Zurich is required to announce a firm intention to proceed with an offer by February 16, or confirm that it does not plan to make a bid. The Swiss insurer currently owns a 1.479% stake in Beazley, equivalent to 8,866,051 ordinary shares.
Morgan Stanley published a new analysis of Japan’s tire industry, reaffirming Overweight (OW) ratings on two major companies with solid growth prospects despite differing market pressures. The report highlights firms well positioned to benefit from opportunities in North America while navigating sector-specific challenges.
1. Toyo Tire — Morgan Stanley reiterates its Overweight rating on Toyo, pointing to growing confidence in the company’s growth strategy and shareholder return outlook ahead of its Medium-Term Plan announcement on March 4. Analysts see additional upside as investors continue to factor in stronger demand for WLTR (Wide Light Truck Radial) tires in North America, where Toyo holds a well-established market position.
2. Bridgestone — Bridgestone also retains an Overweight rating, supported by initiatives to reinvigorate the Firestone brand in the North American market. Morgan Stanley highlights encouraging expectations from the company’s restructuring efforts, while cautioning that soft OE (Original Equipment) demand for TBR (Truck and Bus Radial) tires in North and South America presents a downside risk. Nonetheless, replacement demand in these regions remains resilient.
Bitcoin hovered just above 15-month lows on Wednesday after a sharp sell-off drove the world’s largest cryptocurrency down toward the $73,000 level amid a wave of liquidations and heightened risk aversion. The token was last trading 2.8% lower at $76,509.1 as of 01:56 ET (06:56 GMT), having earlier touched $73,004.3—its weakest level since November 2024.
Following the weekend’s slump, Bitcoin fell nearly 12% last week, building on a roughly 10% decline in the prior week. The latest drop marks its lowest point since Donald Trump’s U.S. election victory, wiping out gains that had previously been supported by optimism around potential regulatory easing for the cryptocurrency sector.
Bitcoin sinks to a 15-month low as mass liquidations accelerate
The downturn was accompanied by widespread liquidations of leveraged long positions. According to data from crypto analytics firm CoinGlass, nearly $740 million in bullish bets were erased over the past 24 hours, as falling prices triggered margin calls and forced traders to close positions.
Bitcoin’s latest weakness represents a sharp reversal from the strong rally seen late last year, when prices surged in the wake of Donald Trump’s election victory. At that time, investors poured into cryptocurrencies on expectations that a new U.S. administration would adopt a more supportive regulatory approach to digital assets. Additional tailwinds came from Federal Reserve rate cuts starting in December 2024, which helped fuel demand for higher-risk assets.
Gold and other traditional safe-haven assets rebounded on Wednesday as geopolitical tensions between the United States and Iran intensified.
At the same time, cryptocurrency markets remain under pressure amid uncertainty surrounding U.S. monetary policy following President Trump’s nomination of former Federal Reserve Governor Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair. Warsh is widely regarded as a policy hawk, raising concerns over tighter liquidity conditions.
Most altcoins remained under pressure on Thursday, posting steeper losses than Bitcoin. Ethereum, the world’s second-largest cryptocurrency, slipped 2.3% to $2,268.92, while XRP, ranked third, edged 1.1% lower to $1.59.
Solana dropped 6%, while Cardano also moved lower and Polygon declined 3.5%. Among meme tokens, Dogecoin was marginally weaker, down 0.2%.
The mainstream narrative claims that a new Fed chair will safeguard the central bank’s independence from U.S. government influence—and that this alone justifies a $1,200/oz drop in gold and a $50 collapse in silver.
Put simply, that narrative is complete nonsense.
Fiat currency is best thought of as meme—or even junk—money, and despite its obvious flaws, it can still enjoy periodic rallies against what many see as the ultimate form of money: gold. These countertrend moves typically emerge during bouts of speculative excess, much like the frothy conditions that have dominated markets over the past couple of months.
From a fundamental standpoint, the gold bull market remains fully intact. Billions of gold-focused savers across China and India—along with a smaller group of informed Western investors—do not rely on central banks for validation. Their priority is building long-term wealth in gold, not accumulating ever more fiat currency and debt.
In the context of this broader bull cycle, it makes little difference who occupies the Fed chair. What matters is whether gold is attractively priced. When it is, prudent savers see it as an opportunity to accumulate more, regardless of short-term fiat-driven narratives.
The long-awaited “exciting buy zone” has finally come into play. Gold investors were encouraged to prepare for a meaningful dip into the $4,400 area, and that discounted opportunity has now materialized.
Sustainable wealth building is not about predicting prices, but about preparing for unexpected moves. This pullback unfolded over just a few days, leaving unprepared investors confused and still focused on guessing what happens next.
The key development now is that the $5,600 region has emerged as a major accumulation zone on any future pullback. Gold investors should already be positioning themselves to take advantage of that opportunity if and when it presents itself.
As for silver, the recent price sell-off was “super-sized,” driven by large and heavily leveraged bets against fiat currencies. That decline ultimately found support at the $70 buy zone, aligning perfectly with gold’s move into the $4,400 area.
Gold remains the undisputed leader of the precious metals complex. If silver investors and mining-stock enthusiasts take their cues from gold bullion, they position themselves to build substantial and durable wealth. The most likely near-term path for silver is a broad trading range between $70 and $120, followed by a powerful upside breakout that could propel prices toward the next target zone of $170–$200.
Over the longer term, silver has the potential to trade well above $1,000, largely because governments worldwide—both in the East and the West—continue to cling to fiat currencies and debt rather than returning to sound money anchored in gold.
A new 40-year inflation cycle began in 2020 and is unlikely to end until U.S. interest rates reach record highs. Unlike the cycle’s conclusion in 1980, however, elevated rates this time are unlikely to curb inflation, as it is being driven by ongoing government policies rather than purely monetary conditions.
Another perspective on U.S. rates: the incoming Fed chair is more likely to lean toward fiscal restraint on a debt-addicted U.S. government than to dispense easy-money policies of QE and rate cuts. Such a stance would have implications for long-term sovereign yields worldwide, and global money managers are likely to continue shifting capital into gold as a strategic response.
As interest rates continue their relentless climb in the years ahead, governments will inevitably confront their “Queen Gold maker.” They will be forced to begin replacing fragile fiat currencies with gold—or face effective financial ruin.
As for robots, they will simply become another cost burden for citizens already trapped in stagflation. As automation expands rapidly and robot populations eventually outnumber humans, workers will be left competing for a shrinking pool of jobs. Confronted with government-driven stagflation and lacking the protection of gold savings, many will endure severe financial stress—conditions that would be further worsened by a stock market crash.
As for the miners, they too presented exceptional buying opportunities when gold dipped to $4,400. The CDNX is now starting to emerge from a decade-long base, with price action that closely resembles gold’s breakout above $2,000. The initial rally may appear deceptive, but it is genuine—because this type of breakout unfolds as a process rather than a single, short-lived move. Notably, trading volumes across CDNX-listed stocks have surged, reinforcing the strength of the move.
While pockets of speculative excess briefly appeared in gold and silver bullion, such froth has been absent in the mining sector. Several silver explorers nearing production are projecting all-in sustaining costs well below $20, while gold explorers with large-scale projects are reporting AISC figures under $2,000. The conclusion is clear: junior gold and silver miners may represent the most undervalued segment in market history.
And what about the senior miners? The GDX versus gold chart is striking. Since the 2015 low—when the head of a massive inverse head-and-shoulders pattern began to form—I’ve been guiding investors through this setup. That structure points not merely to years, but potentially decades of strong performance for gold equities. In alignment with the CDNX-to-fiat picture, the breakout process is now underway.
The GDX daily chart delivers a real “wow factor.” The latest five-wave advance was remarkable—and signs suggest a new leg higher may already be unfolding. Notably, GDX’s recent pullback held well above its October highs, even as gold retraced back to that level. That kind of relative strength is a powerful signal that further upside is likely.
Even if gold consolidates between $5,600 and $4,400, and silver oscillates between $120 and $70, GDX and many of its underlying stocks could still push on to new highs. With 2026 marking the Chinese Year of the Fire Horse—symbolizing bold action and the fight for freedom—the question arises: are gold and silver equities poised for their own moment of liberation, breaking out to extraordinary new levels? The evidence suggests they are.
The Dow Jones continues to trade within an increasingly narrow range, as buyers find support along the December trendline while sellers cap advances near 49,580. The longer this compression persists, the higher the likelihood of a decisive and volatile breakout once the range is resolved.
Triangle pattern continues to tighten as pressure mounts.
49,580 stands as the critical upside barrier.
The breakout will determine direction, not strength.
Something has to give in the Dow Jones contract as price action continues to compress within an ascending triangle. Buyers remain active along the trendline support drawn from early December, while sellers continue to defend the 49,580 area. The market is effectively locked in a stalemate, and the longer this coiling persists, the greater the likelihood of a sharp, potentially explosive move once the pattern finally resolves.
Traditionally, this setup favors a bullish resolution, opening the door to fresh record highs, with a push beyond 51,000 possible given the placement of the triangle. A decisive break and close above 49,580 would allow long positions to be established above the level, with stops placed just below for risk management. While the 50,000 mark will naturally attract close attention due to its psychological importance, I would prefer to see a clear topping formation before reassessing whether to trim, exit, or maintain positions.
That said, technical conventions do not always play out—particularly against a backdrop of elevated valuations—so traders should remain mindful of the potential for a downside break from the pattern.
For now, the December uptrend is tracking closely alongside the 50-day moving average, creating a key zone where both long and short opportunities could emerge, depending on price behavior, should another pullback unfold.
A successful test and rebound from support could offer opportunities to establish long positions, targeting a retest of resistance near 49,580. Conversely, a decisive break and close below this zone would flip the bias, opening the door for short positions with stops placed above the trendline for protection. On the downside, 47,840 emerges as the first notable objective, aligning with multiple rebound points seen in December. Below that, 47,200—where the current uptrend originated—comes into focus, followed by the 46,875 area, which saw considerable two-way price action in the final quarter of 2025.
Adding some support to the bullish case, the 14-period RSI has broken its downward trend and is holding above the 50 level, indicating that downside momentum has stalled for now. The MACD echoes this view, turning back toward its signal line from below while remaining in positive territory. Overall, the signals suggest a neutral near-term bias, though with a slight edge still favoring the bulls.
The United Nations is considering a global tax framework that would tie oil and gas industry profits to climate compensation, though deep divisions among member states leave the outcome uncertain. Attempts to hold major energy producers financially accountable for climate change are not new. However, as the costs of the energy transition mount and legal efforts deliver mixed results, taxation is increasingly being viewed as an alternative policy instrument.
The United Nations is currently weighing the creation of a new international tax cooperation framework that could, among other objectives, channel funds from the oil and gas industry toward climate-related compensation. While the proposal reflects a familiar ambition to hold the industry financially accountable for climate change, its prospects remain uncertain.
The initiative falls under the Framework Convention on International Tax Cooperation, which is being negotiated at UN headquarters in New York. The broader goal is to strengthen global tax collection mechanisms and increase taxation on the world’s wealthiest entities and individuals. Sustainability features prominently in the discussions, with many countries—particularly those experiencing frequent climate-related disasters—supporting efforts to make major oil producers contribute financially. At the same time, resistance remains strong among other member states that oppose assigning climate liability to the energy sector or implementing a global wealth tax.
Recent proposals have suggested linking oil and gas profits directly to climate compensation payments. However, critics argue that these ideas lack sufficient clarity and enforcement power, limiting their viability. Supporters note that such measures could have generated as much as $1 trillion in additional revenue since the 2015 Paris Agreement, highlighting the scale of the opportunity lost if no agreement is reached.
Any move to formally tax Big Oil for its alleged role in man-made climate change would almost certainly provoke a strong response from the industry, likely through legal challenges. This would build on an already extensive record of climate-related litigation, where activist groups have achieved mixed results.
In the United States, California launched a lawsuit against major oil companies in 2024, accusing them of downplaying the climate risks associated with fossil fuels. The case targets companies including Exxon Mobil, Chevron, BP, and ConocoPhillips. State Attorney General Rob Bonta later strengthened the case by adding a provision aimed at forcing companies to surrender profits derived from alleged wrongful conduct. However, the lawsuit’s progress remains unclear, and California officials have recently softened their rhetoric toward oil companies in an effort to keep refineries operating and prevent fuel price spikes.
Maine has pursued a similar legal path, filing a “climate deception” lawsuit against several oil majors and the American Petroleum Institute. A federal judge allowed the case to proceed last year, with plaintiffs alleging that the defendants concealed information about the environmental and economic consequences of fossil fuel use.
This wave of so-called climate lawfare has become a favored strategy among activists seeking to penalize the fossil fuel industry. Yet given the uncertain outcomes of court cases, taxation is increasingly viewed as a more reliable alternative. The energy transition has proven far more expensive than initially anticipated, and governments are searching for sustainable funding sources.
Big Oil remains an obvious target due to its substantial profits from essential energy commodities that are widely blamed for climate change. Whether the UN negotiations ultimately result in a binding global tax remains to be seen. Even if they do, governments hoping for swift revenue may need patience—because the oil and gas industry is unlikely to accept such measures without a prolonged fight.
Solana remains below the $100 level on Wednesday after shedding more than 6% in the previous session.
Weakening retail sentiment alongside subdued institutional interest points to a growing bearish bias.
From a technical perspective, rising selling pressure suggests further downside toward the $85 region.
Solana (SOL) remains below the $100 mark at press time on Wednesday, following a decline of more than 6% in the prior session amid broader weakness across the cryptocurrency market. Both institutional and retail interest in Solana continue to fade, even as on-chain metrics recorded a record 150 million daily transactions on Tuesday. From a technical standpoint, strengthening bearish momentum points to the risk of a further slide toward the $85 level.
Solana continues to see robust on-chain user activity, with daily transaction volume reaching a record high on Tuesday. According to Blockworks data, the network processed over 150 million transactions during the day, averaging approximately 1,743 transactions per second.
Despite resilient on-chain activity, institutional inflows have stayed muted over the past three weeks, averaging no more than $9 million per day since January and including three sessions of net outflows. Data from Sosovalue shows that U.S. Solana-focused exchange-traded funds (ETFs) posted inflows of $1.24 million on Tuesday, following a $5.58 million inflow recorded on Monday.
Meanwhile, signals from the derivatives market point to a bearish tilt in Solana sentiment, accompanied by capital outflows. CoinGlass data shows that SOL open interest fell by 1.24% over the past 24 hours to $6.37 billion, suggesting capital exited the market through position closures or reduced leverage.
Liquidation data further highlights the bearish bias, with long liquidations totaling $22.31 million during the period—more than five times the $4.39 million in short liquidations.
In addition, Solana’s OI-weighted funding rate has slipped to -0.0238%, underscoring increasingly negative sentiment as traders holding or initiating short positions are willing to pay a premium to maintain them.
The waning bullish appetite for Solana mirrors the broader market downturn, which has seen total liquidations of around $735 million over the past 24 hours, including approximately $529 million from long positions.
Moreover, the broader cryptocurrency market remains under pressure, with the Fear and Greed Index falling to 14 on Wednesday—pointing to extreme risk-averse sentiment among investors. Without a meaningful improvement in market mood, Solana may face additional downside.
Technical Outlook: Is Solana headed toward $85?
Solana continues to trade below its 50-, 100-, and 200-day Exponential Moving Averages at $127, $139, and $153, respectively, keeping the broader trend firmly under pressure. The shorter-term EMAs remain positioned beneath the longer-term averages, forming a bearish alignment that has capped recent rebound attempts.
A sustained move below the $95 level would leave the S1 Pivot Point at $85 as the next downside target.
Momentum indicators remain decisively negative, with the MACD and signal line both trending lower and extending further into bearish territory on the daily chart. Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index stands at 28 and is consolidating within oversold territory, a setup that could still allow for additional downside despite stretched conditions.
On the upside, a recovery back above the $100 level could shift focus toward the 50-day EMA near $127 as the initial upside objective.
The Japanese yen stays under pressure as fiscal worries and political uncertainty outweigh stronger-than-expected data.
Concerns over possible intervention and the BoJ’s increasingly hawkish stance may deter traders from adding new bearish yen positions.
Rising expectations of further Fed easing weigh on the U.S. dollar and could limit upside in USD/JPY.
The Japanese yen (JPY) continues its downward trajectory against the U.S. dollar for a fourth consecutive session on Wednesday, sliding to a near two-week low during Asian trading. Persistent concerns over Japan’s fiscal position—linked to Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s expansionary spending agenda—remain a key drag on the currency. In addition, heightened political uncertainty ahead of the February 8 snap election further weakens sentiment toward the yen, driving USD/JPY above the 156.00 level.
At the same time, markets remain cautious amid the risk of coordinated Japan–U.S. intervention aimed at curbing excessive yen weakness. Expectations of gradual policy normalization by the Bank of Japan may also discourage traders from adding aggressive bearish positions. Meanwhile, expectations that the Federal Reserve will deliver two additional rate cuts limit U.S. dollar demand, potentially capping further upside in USD/JPY ahead of later U.S. economic data releases.
Yen sellers stay in charge as fiscal strains and political uncertainty persist.
Japan’s services sector gathered momentum at the start of 2026, with business activity expanding for a tenth straight month and at the fastest pace in nearly a year. The Jibun Bank Services PMI rose to 53.7 from 51.6 in December, coming in slightly above market expectations of 53.4. The figures point to a more sustained recovery in the services industry, which represents about 70% of Japan’s GDP.
Despite the encouraging data, market reaction was subdued as concerns over Japan’s fiscal outlook continued to weigh on sentiment. Investor unease has been amplified by Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s expansionary fiscal agenda, including aggressive spending plans and proposed tax cuts. As part of her campaign ahead of the February 8 snap lower house election, Takaichi has pledged to suspend the 8% consumption tax on food for two years, bringing renewed focus to Japan’s already stretched public finances and keeping the yen under pressure on Wednesday.
Meanwhile, a recent and unusual rate check by the New York Federal Reserve was interpreted as the clearest indication so far of coordination between Japanese and U.S. authorities to curb excessive yen weakness. This lowers the bar for potential intervention and could help limit further JPY losses, particularly alongside expectations of a more hawkish Bank of Japan.
The Summary of Opinions from the BoJ’s January meeting, released Monday, revealed that policymakers discussed rising inflationary pressures stemming from a weaker yen. Board members also agreed that additional rate hikes would be appropriate over time, a stance that could provide underlying support for the JPY.
On the other side, the U.S. dollar has struggled to extend last week’s rebound from a four-year low, despite support from the nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve chair. Even the approval of a government funding package to end a partial shutdown failed to generate meaningful upside for the greenback.
Looking ahead, traders are awaiting the U.S. ADP employment report and the ISM Services PMI. In addition, remarks from influential FOMC members could shape near-term USD demand amid expectations for two more Fed rate cuts in 2026, with implications for the USD/JPY pair.
USD/JPY must clear the 156.50 confluence zone to reinforce bullish momentum.
Wednesday’s push above the 156.00 handle builds on the overnight breakout through the 50% retracement of the 159.13–152.06 decline, tilting the near-term bias in favor of USD/JPY bulls. The 14-period Relative Strength Index stands at 66.9, remaining below overbought territory and pointing to a solid, albeit increasingly mature, upswing.
That said, the MACD histogram, while still in positive territory, is narrowing—an early sign of waning bullish momentum. The MACD line remains above the Signal line, with both oscillating close to the zero level, underscoring a more cautious and transitional setup.
As a result, further upside is likely to face notable resistance around the 156.51 confluence, which combines the 100-period Simple Moving Average on the 4-hour chart and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. A sustained move above this zone would be required to reassert a constructive short-term outlook.
A decisive break could pave the way toward the 78.6% retracement at 157.62. Conversely, an inability to clear this hurdle would leave the rebound exposed to renewed downside pressure. Moreover, USD/JPY continues to trade below a downward-sloping 100-period SMA, suggesting that upside attempts may remain constrained for now.
U.S. President Donald Trump has signed legislation bringing the government shutdown to an end, an outcome that markets largely took in stride given how routine such episodes have become.
However, UBS Chief Economist Paul Donovan noted that Democrats have coalesced in opposition to confirming former Federal Reserve Governor Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair until the administration’s legal challenge involving the Fed is resolved. This impasse raises the possibility that Chair Jerome Powell could remain in office beyond May.
Resolution of the government shutdown influences market conditions.
Government dysfunction in the U.S. has become so routine that financial markets largely ignored it.
Democrats have indicated they will block the confirmation of former Federal Reserve Governor Warsh as the next Fed chair unless the administration halts its legal actions against the Federal Reserve.
While this outcome was widely anticipated, it increases the likelihood that Chair Powell could remain as FOMC chair—though not as Chair of the Board of Governors—beyond May.
WisdomTree CEO Jonathan Steinberg said the firm’s push into tokenization is approaching profitability, underscoring a shift in which crypto has evolved from a small-scale experiment into a core pillar of the company’s strategy.
The asset manager has rapidly expanded its digital-asset business, growing tokenized assets under management from roughly $30 million to about $750 million, while extending its offerings across additional blockchains, including Solana.
Steinberg described crypto as a foundation for modernizing financial infrastructure, pointing to initiatives such as tokenized investment products, the WisdomTree Connect platform, and a deliberate focus on compliance-oriented tokenization technology as central to the firm’s long-term growth plans.
New York — WisdomTree’s crypto business has moved beyond the experimental phase and is now central to the firm’s long-term strategy, with profitability coming into view, CEO Jonathan Steinberg said during a fireside chat at the Ondo Summit in New York on Tuesday.
“We want to continue to scale,” Steinberg said, noting that the firm’s digital-asset business expanded from roughly $30 million to about $750 million in assets last year. While WisdomTree does not yet generate profits from its crypto operations, Steinberg said the company is now “within line of sight of taking this to a profitable business.”
The $150 billion asset manager has been investing heavily in blockchain infrastructure, rolling out tokenized investment products and expanding to additional blockchains, including Solana. Steinberg emphasized that the push reflects long-term conviction rather than short-term experimentation. “It’s still early days, but it’s not an experiment now,” he said. “We have conviction, and we believe that eventually everything will move on-chain.”
WisdomTree’s growing commitment to digital assets was also highlighted in its latest earnings presentation, which showed total tokenized assets under management rising to $770 million—an increase of roughly 25 times from 2024 levels.
WisdomTree has emerged as an early and aggressive leader among traditional asset managers in the digital-asset space, rolling out a range of tokenized funds and recently broadening distribution through WisdomTree Connect, a platform that allows these assets to move seamlessly across self-custodied wallets and institutional systems.
The firm has also made a strategic push into blockchain infrastructure, most notably through its acquisition of Securrency, a compliance-focused tokenization company that was later sold to the DTCC. Steinberg said the deal laid the groundwork for “compliance-aware tokens” and programmable finance, forming the backbone of WisdomTree’s long-term, interoperable digital-asset strategy.
For Steinberg, crypto represents far more than a new product line—it signals a transformation of the financial system itself. “This is bigger than asset management; it’s really about financial services,” he said. He noted that many financial institutions are built on layers of legacy infrastructure accumulated over centuries, underscoring the need for modernization.
The steep sell-off in cryptocurrencies eased on Tuesday after the U.S. House narrowly approved a funding package, sending the legislation to President Donald Trump’s desk and effectively ending the partial government shutdown.
The House passed the bill by a slim 217–214 margin, clearing the way for the government to reopen once the president signs it. While lawmakers will continue negotiations over funding for the Department of Homeland Security in the coming days, most major federal agencies will remain funded.
The development helped pause a panic-driven rout in crypto markets earlier in the session. Bitcoin briefly slid to around $72,800—its lowest level since before Trump’s election victory in November 2024—before stabilizing. At roughly $74,800, bitcoin was still down about 4.5% over the past 24 hours.
Ether traded near $2,181, down 7% on the day and roughly 26% over the past week. Other major tokens, including XRP and Solana, recorded similar losses.
U.S. equities also rebounded from their intraday lows but remained sharply lower overall, with the Nasdaq down around 2% and the S&P 500 lower by about 1.3%.
WTI crude prices edged higher to around $63.75 during Wednesday’s Asian trading session.
The move came after the U.S. military said it shot down an Iranian drone that “aggressively approached” a U.S. aircraft carrier, heightening geopolitical tensions.
Oil prices were also supported by data showing U.S. crude inventories recorded their largest decline since August 2023.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the U.S. crude oil benchmark, was trading near $63.75 during Asian hours on Wednesday, edging higher amid rising concerns over escalating tensions between the United States and Iran. Market participants are also positioning ahead of the release of the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) crude oil inventory report later in the day.
According to CNBC, the U.S. military shot down an Iranian drone on Tuesday that had “aggressively” approached the USS Abraham Lincoln aircraft carrier in the Arabian Sea. The incident comes at a time of heightened Middle East tensions, as U.S. President Donald Trump weighs potential military action against Iran.
Iran has also insisted that talks with the United States this week be held in Oman rather than Turkey, and that negotiations be limited to bilateral discussions focused solely on nuclear issues, further complicating an already fragile diplomatic process. Any escalation in tensions between Washington and Tehran—OPEC’s fourth-largest crude producer—could provide near-term support to WTI prices.
Meanwhile, the American Petroleum Institute’s (API) weekly report showed that U.S. crude inventories fell by 11.1 million barrels in the week ended January 30, sharply deeper than the 250,000-barrel decline seen the previous week and well below market expectations for a 700,000-barrel build. The sizeable drawdown in stockpiles could lend additional support to oil prices.
On the downside, renewed demand for the U.S. dollar may cap gains in dollar-denominated commodities. U.S. President Donald Trump’s nomination of Governor Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve chair has led traders to expect a slower pace of interest rate cuts and a greater emphasis on reducing the Fed’s balance sheet under his leadership.
Silver prices climbed to around $87.60 during Wednesday’s Asian trading session.
However, shifting expectations surrounding the next Federal Reserve chair could limit further upside in the metal.
Demand for safe-haven assets strengthened after reports that the United States shot down an Iranian drone that was approaching an aircraft carrier.
Silver prices (XAG/USD) climbed to around $87.60 during Asian trading on Wednesday, rebounding after a historic correction last week as dip-buying activity returned to the market.
On Friday, U.S. President Donald Trump nominated Kevin Warsh to replace Jerome Powell as the next Chair of the Federal Reserve, with Warsh expected to assume the role when Powell’s term ends in May. Expectations that Trump’s nominee may favor keeping interest rates elevated to combat inflation have supported the U.S. dollar, potentially weighing on dollar-denominated commodities such as silver.
Precious metals have also faced pressure from margin hikes by the CME Group. Over the weekend, the exchange raised margin requirements for gold and silver, forcing many leveraged traders to liquidate positions to meet higher costs.
On the other hand, safe-haven demand has been underpinned by rising geopolitical risks and economic uncertainty. Reuters reported on Tuesday that the U.S. military shot down an Iranian drone that “aggressively” approached the Abraham Lincoln aircraft carrier in the Arabian Sea.
Separately, Iran requested that this week’s negotiations with the United States be held in Oman rather than Turkey and limited to bilateral discussions focused solely on nuclear issues. President Trump warned that with U.S. warships moving toward Iran, “bad things” could occur if an agreement is not reached.
The Australian dollar strengthened after the Composite PMI surged to 55.7 in January, marking the fastest pace of expansion in nearly four years.
The Aussie also benefited as markets priced in an 80% probability of an interest rate hike in May, along with around 40 basis points of additional policy tightening.
Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar remained subdued for a second straight session.
The Australian dollar strengthened against the U.S. dollar on Wednesday, extending gains of more than 1% from the previous session. The AUD/USD pair held firm after China’s Services Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) rose to 52.3 in January from 52.0 in December, beating market expectations of 51.8. As China is Australia’s largest trading partner, improvements in Chinese economic activity tend to support the Aussie.
The AUD also drew support from upbeat domestic PMI data. Seasonally adjusted figures from S&P Global showed Australia’s Composite PMI climbed to 55.7 in January from 51.0 in December, marking the strongest expansion in 45 months. The Services PMI jumped to 56.3 from 51.1, its highest reading since February 2022, exceeding the flash estimate of 56.0 and remaining well above the 50.0 threshold. This extended the run of expansion in services activity to two years.
The Reserve Bank of Australia raised its Official Cash Rate by 25 basis points to 3.85% on Tuesday, pointing to stronger-than-expected economic growth and persistently elevated inflation. As the tightening cycle gathers momentum, markets have increased the odds of another rate hike in May to around 80% and are now pricing in roughly 40 basis points of additional tightening through the rest of the year.
Speaking at the post-meeting press conference, RBA Governor Michele Bullock said inflationary pressures remain uncomfortably high, warning that a return to the target range will take longer than previously expected and is no longer acceptable. She emphasized that the board will remain data-dependent and avoid providing forward guidance.
U.S. dollar little changed after recent losses
The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the greenback against six major currencies, remained subdued for a second straight session, trading near 97.40 at the time of writing.
Data released on Monday showed an unexpected rebound in U.S. manufacturing activity, underscoring economic resilience. The ISM Manufacturing PMI rose to 52.6 in January from 47.9 in December, comfortably beating expectations of 48.5.
Markets have also been assessing President Donald Trump’s nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve chair, a move widely interpreted as signaling a more disciplined and cautious approach to monetary easing. The dollar found some support earlier as risk sentiment improved after the U.S. Senate reached an agreement to advance a government funding package, averting a shutdown, according to Politico.
Producer-side inflation in the U.S. remained firm, reinforcing the Fed’s policy stance. Headline PPI held steady at 3.0% year-over-year in December, unchanged from November and above expectations for a slowdown to 2.7%. Core PPI, which excludes food and energy, accelerated to 3.3% from 3.0%, defying forecasts for a decline to 2.9% and highlighting persistent upstream price pressures.
Fed officials struck a cautious tone. St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem said additional rate cuts are not warranted at this stage, describing the current 3.50%–3.75% policy rate range as broadly neutral. Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic echoed this view, urging patience and arguing that policy should remain modestly restrictive.
In Australia, inflation data showed mixed signals. The RBA’s trimmed mean inflation rose 0.2% month-over-month and 3.3% year-over-year, while the monthly CPI jumped 1.0% in December, exceeding forecasts of 0.7%. Export prices climbed 3.2% quarter-on-quarter in Q4 2025—the first increase in three quarters and the strongest gain in a year—while import prices rose 0.9%, beating expectations for a decline.
China’s RatingDog Manufacturing PMI edged up to 50.3 in January from 50.1 in December, in line with expectations and marking the fastest pace of factory expansion since October.
Additional Australian indicators pointed to easing inflation momentum and improving labor demand. The TD-MI Inflation Gauge rose 3.6% year-over-year in January, while monthly inflation increased just 0.2%, the weakest pace since August. Meanwhile, ANZ Job Advertisements surged 4.4% month-over-month in December, posting the strongest increase since February 2022 and signaling renewed momentum in hiring toward year-end.
Australian dollar rebounds toward three-year highs near 0.7100
The AUD/USD pair was trading near 0.7030 on Wednesday. Analysis of the daily chart shows the pair remains within an ascending channel, pointing to a sustained bullish bias. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 73.30, signaling strong upward momentum, though conditions appear increasingly stretched.
AUD/USD recently rebounded toward 0.7094, its highest level since February 2023, reached on January 29. A decisive break above this resistance could open the way for a move toward the upper boundary of the ascending channel around 0.7210. On the downside, initial support is seen at the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) near 0.6964, which coincides with the channel’s lower boundary. A deeper pullback could bring the 50-day EMA at 0.6759 into focus.
Asian equity markets were mixed on Wednesday, with South Korean stocks climbing to a record high, though broader gains were limited as a rally in technology shares lost momentum following a weaker close on Wall Street.
U.S. markets finished lower overnight, led by declines in the technology sector as concerns resurfaced over potential disruption stemming from the rapid pace of advancements in artificial intelligence.
The Nasdaq underperformed broader market indexes, as investors adopted a cautious stance ahead of key earnings reports from major U.S. technology companies.
Alphabet (NASDAQ: GOOGL) is set to release its results later on Wednesday, followed by Amazon (NASDAQ: AMZN) on Thursday, with both reports expected to serve as important gauges of demand for advertising, cloud services, and AI-related spending.
Asian stocks mixed as South Korea’s KOSPI hits record high
Asian markets were coming off a strong previous session, when equities rallied broadly across the region.
South Korea’s KOSPI climbed nearly 1% on Wednesday to a record high of 5,361.85 points, after surging almost 7% the day before on strong gains in heavyweight chipmakers and technology stocks.
Japan’s Nikkei 225 slipped 0.7% following a roughly 4% advance in the prior session.
Sentiment toward artificial intelligence remained volatile, as overnight declines in U.S. technology shares weighed on regional peers and triggered some profit-taking after recent sharp rallies.
Elsewhere in the region, China’s Shanghai Composite edged up 0.1%, while the blue-chip CSI 300 slipped 0.2%. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng fell 0.5%.
Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 added 0.5%, Singapore’s Straits Times Index was flat, and futures for India’s Nifty 50 ticked higher. The Nifty surged nearly 3% on Tuesday after the U.S. signed a trade agreement with India that sharply reduced tariffs.
Fed overhaul concerns persist as China services PMI comes into focus
Investors also remained cautious over President Donald Trump’s nomination of former Federal Reserve governor Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair.
Warsh is widely regarded as having a hawkish policy stance, fueling concerns that U.S. interest rates may stay higher for longer.
In China, a private-sector survey released on Wednesday showed that the services sector expanded in January at its fastest pace in three months.
While the data provided some reassurance about underlying demand in the world’s second-largest economy, investor sentiment remained restrained amid ongoing concerns about uneven growth and subdued consumer confidence.
Bitcoin fell sharply on Tuesday, giving up all gains made since President Donald Trump’s election victory, as selling pressure remained intense following heavy liquidations over the weekend. Ongoing uncertainty surrounding U.S. monetary policy further weighed on sentiment.
The world’s largest cryptocurrency was last down 4.2% at $74,699.9 by 15:12 ET (20:12 GMT), marking its lowest level since early November 2024. Prices touched an intraday low of $73,004.3, leaving Bitcoin down roughly 59% from its record high and firmly entrenched in bear market territory.
Menno Martens, a crypto specialist and product manager at VanEck, said the market is simply entering another familiar phase of the cycle.
“There’s no question that this is a bear market,” Martens told Investing.com, noting that the current downturn differs from previous ones due to growing geopolitical and macroeconomic influences, particularly developments in the United States.
He explained that the path of this cycle does not mirror past bull and bear markets exactly, largely because of these new external factors. However, Martens emphasized that the broader outlook remains unchanged, adding that VanEck continues to maintain a long-term perspective despite the current bearish conditions.
Bitcoin weighed down by heavy liquidations and Trump’s Fed pick
The sharp sell-off in cryptocurrencies over the weekend was fueled by widespread liquidations of leveraged positions, underscoring the heavy speculative buildup that had accumulated during last year’s rally. Data from derivatives tracking firms showed that crypto positions worth several billion dollars were wiped out in a short span, with long trades accounting for most of the forced closures.
Thin market liquidity further amplified volatility, allowing relatively modest price moves to trigger cascading liquidations.
Investor sentiment has also been dampened by broader macroeconomic uncertainty. Markets are weighing the implications of Kevin Warsh’s nomination as the next chair of the U.S. Federal Reserve, prompting a reassessment of the outlook for interest rates.
Warsh is broadly perceived as leaning toward a more hawkish policy stance, stoking concerns that tighter financial conditions could persist for longer.
Separately, the release of January’s closely watched U.S. employment report—originally scheduled for Friday—has been delayed due to a partial government shutdown, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
White House crypto meeting ends without agreement on stablecoin yields
The cryptocurrency industry and major U.S. banks remain divided over how to regulate stablecoin yields following a White House meeting, underscoring ongoing hurdles to advancing long-delayed crypto legislation, according to media reports.
Executives from crypto companies, representatives from large banks, and government officials gathered in Washington to discuss market-structure rules, but made little headway on the key question of whether stablecoin issuers should be permitted to offer yield-like returns.
Banks have warned that yield-bearing stablecoins could accelerate deposit outflows and threaten financial stability, while crypto firms argue that such features are essential for innovation, growth, and maintaining competitiveness.
Crypto prices today: altcoins rebound as Polygon surges 10%
Most altcoins also moved lower on Tuesday.
Ethereum, the world’s second-largest cryptocurrency, fell 4.9% to $2,242.43, while third-ranked XRP declined 3.6% to $1.58.
Solana dropped 4.1%, and Cardano eased 1.8%.
Among meme tokens, Dogecoin slipped 2.1%, while the $TRUMP token fell 1.4%.
Gold prices climbed back above key technical levels during Asian trading on Wednesday, as renewed signs of tension between the United States and Iran fueled safe-haven demand for the precious metal.
Bullion extended its rebound from Tuesday after sharply recovering from recent losses, with dip-buying activity also remaining strong following last week’s more than $1,000 price sell-off.
Spot gold gained 2% to $5,048.37 per ounce by 21:00 ET (02:00 GMT), while April gold futures advanced 2.8% to $5,017.19 per ounce.
Other precious metals also moved higher on Wednesday, building on the rebound seen in the previous session. Spot silver gained 0.5% to $85.5245 per ounce, while spot platinum climbed 1.7% to $2,256.04 per ounce.
Iran concerns return ahead of upcoming nuclear talks
Renewed concerns over escalating tensions between the United States and Iran were a key catalyst for safe-haven demand, particularly after overnight reports that U.S. forces shot down an Iranian drone over the Arabian Sea.
In a separate development, Iranian gunboats were reported to have approached a U.S.-linked oil tanker in the Strait of Hormuz.
These incidents partially offset earlier statements from both Tehran and Washington indicating that talks would be held this Friday. News of the planned negotiations had previously eased market anxiety and weighed on safe-haven demand for gold.
Gold’s recent pullback was largely driven by expectations that U.S. President Donald Trump’s nominee for Federal Reserve chair, Kevin Warsh, may adopt a less dovish stance than markets had anticipated. This fueled a sharp rally in the U.S. dollar, pressuring precious metals, while gold also faced profit-taking after surging to a record high near $5,600 per ounce last week.
Despite the recent decline, gold remains up nearly 15% so far in 2026.
ANZ analysts noted that the core fundamentals underpinning gold’s strength—safe-haven demand, robust physical buying, and ongoing central bank purchases—remain firmly intact.
Oil prices climbed sharply during Asian trading on Wednesday, driven by reports of escalating tensions between the United States and Iran, which heightened fears of possible supply disruptions in the Middle East.
Crude prices also found support from industry figures showing an unexpected and substantial drawdown in U.S. oil inventories last week, as severe cold weather across the country curtailed production.
April Brent futures advanced 1.2% to $68.15 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude rose 1.4% to $63.69 per barrel as of 21:01 ET (02:01 GMT).
Overnight reports indicated that U.S. forces shot down an Iranian drone that was approaching a U.S. aircraft carrier in the Arabian Sea.
In a separate incident, several Iranian gunboats were observed nearing a U.S.-flagged oil tanker in the Strait of Hormuz.
These developments came just ahead of planned talks between Washington and Tehran later this week. However, Iranian officials have reportedly insisted that the negotiations—scheduled for Friday—be limited to bilateral discussions focused solely on nuclear issues, raising uncertainty over whether the talks will proceed at all.
U.S. President Donald Trump has warned of further military action if Iran fails to comply with U.S. demands to rein in its nuclear program, while Tehran has vowed strong retaliation against any U.S. aggression.
Any escalation of military activity in the Middle East could potentially disrupt regional oil supplies, a risk that has helped support crude prices in recent trading sessions.
U.S. oil inventories fall sharply amid production disruptions, API data shows
Oil prices also found support from industry figures showing a large and unexpected drawdown in U.S. crude inventories.
Data from the American Petroleum Institute indicated that U.S. stockpiles fell by 11.1 million barrels in the week ended January 30, sharply contrasting with expectations for a 0.7 million-barrel build.
API figures often signal a similar outcome in the official inventory report due later in the day.
The sizeable drawdown was driven by severe cold weather across the United States, which disrupted oil production nationwide and hampered exports from the Gulf Coast.
Supply disruptions in the U.S. have also contributed to stronger oil prices in recent weeks.
European stocks inched higher on Tuesday, supported by a solid overnight close on Wall Street, as the recent sell-off in precious metals appeared to be short-lived.
By 03:05 ET (08:05 GMT), Germany’s DAX was up 0.8%, France’s CAC 40 added 0.4%, and the U.K.’s FTSE 100 edged 0.1% higher.
Global markets—including European equities—have steadied after several days of heightened volatility, marked in particular by sharp declines in gold and silver prices late last week and over the weekend.
Precious metals rebounded on Monday, restoring some investor confidence and helping lift the blue-chip Dow Jones Industrial Average by more than 500 points, or around 1%, on Wall Street.
Market sentiment also improved after U.S. President Donald Trump announced late Monday that the United States had reached a trade agreement with India, cutting tariffs on Indian goods to 18% from 50%.
The deal followed months of negotiations during which punitive tariffs had climbed as high as 50% and was widely viewed as a step toward normalizing trade relations.
Publicis draws investor attention.
Back in Europe, focus has returned to the quarterly earnings season, with a large number of major companies across the region scheduled to report results this week.
Publicis Groupe is in focus on Tuesday after a series of strong client wins helped the French advertising group deliver underlying fourth-quarter revenue ahead of expectations. The company generated €2.03 billion in free cash flow before working capital movements in 2025, up 10.6% from the previous year, and proposed a fully cash dividend of €3.75 per share, representing a 4.2% increase.
Elsewhere in France, asset manager Amundi posted a 6% rise in adjusted pretax income for 2025 to €1.86 billion, supported by record net inflows of €88 billion as it rolled out a new strategic plan aimed at driving growth through 2028.
In the Netherlands, Akzo Nobel reported a solid improvement in fourth-quarter margins compared with a year earlier, as the paints manufacturer contends with subdued demand while pursuing a potential merger with U.S. rival Axalta Coating Systems.
Attention is also on U.S. earnings later Tuesday, with results due from companies such as PayPal, Pfizer, and Marathon Petroleum, ahead of Advanced Micro Devices’ earnings after the close. Sentiment toward AI-related stocks remains fragile following poorly received results from Microsoft last week.
French consumer prices decline.
Data released earlier in the session indicated that inflation pressures remain subdued in France, the eurozone’s second-largest economy.
French consumer prices declined 0.3% month on month in January, while annual inflation stood at just 0.3%, undershooting expectations of 0.6%.
Attention now turns to the European Central Bank’s policy meeting later this week, where policymakers are widely expected to leave interest rates unchanged at 2% for a fifth consecutive meeting.
ECB President Christine Lagarde may also be pressed on the implications of a stronger euro for inflation, after the single currency briefly climbed above $1.20 last week, marking its highest level since 2021. It has since retreated but remains more than 2% higher over the past two weeks.
Crude prices continue to edge lower
Oil prices edged lower on Tuesday, extending losses for a second straight session, as easing tensions between the United States and Iran reduced the geopolitical risk premium in crude markets.
Brent futures slipped 0.4% to $65.96 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude fell 0.4% to $61.90.
Both benchmarks dropped more than 4% in the previous session after President Donald Trump said Iran was “seriously talking” with Washington, signaling a potential de-escalation with the OPEC member.
Further pressure came from reports that Iran and the U.S. are set to resume nuclear talks on Friday in Turkey, according to Reuters.
Oil prices were also weighed down by a firmer U.S. dollar, with the dollar index hovering near a more-than-one-week high, dampening demand from holders of other currencies.
Silver has climbed above $87.00 after rebounding from one-month lows below $72.00. Precious metals are rising on Tuesday as overall market sentiment improves, though XAG/USD bulls may face resistance in the $88.00–$90.00 zone.
Silver (XAG/USD) is posting modest gains on Tuesday, trading around $87.05 at the time of writing. The white metal has stabilized after plunging more than 30% over the previous two sessions, which pushed prices to one-month lows just below the $72.00 level.
In a departure from their typical behavior, precious metals are rebounding alongside an improvement in broader market sentiment. Optimism stemming from a trade agreement between the United States and India, along with reports of forthcoming nuclear talks with Iran, has lifted investor confidence and increased appetite for risk assets.
Technical analysis: XAG/USD faces immediate resistance at $88.00.
XAG/USD has recovered part of its recent losses, though technical indicators continue to signal a bearish bias. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains below both the signal line and the zero level, even as the negative histogram narrows toward zero. Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is ticking higher, suggesting a gradual easing of downside pressure, but it remains below the critical 50 threshold.
On the upside, the pair is expected to encounter resistance near Monday’s highs around the $88.00 mark. A sustained break above this level could shift attention toward the psychological $100.00 handle, followed by intraday resistance near $104.00.
On the downside, immediate support is located at the monthly low of $71.37. A break below this level would expose the early-December highs and mid-December lows clustered around the $60.00 area.
UK grocery inflation slowed to 4.0% in the four weeks ending January 25, marking its lowest level since April last year, according to figures released Tuesday by market researcher Worldpanel by Numerator.
The reading eased from the 4.3% inflation rate reported in Worldpanel’s previous update, offering modest relief to households grappling with elevated food prices.
The data also serves as an early signal of price pressures ahead of the UK’s official inflation release scheduled for February 18.
Despite the moderation in inflation, Worldpanel noted that UK grocery sales increased 3.8% year on year in value terms over the four-week period. Adjusted for inflation, however, this translates into a decline in volumes, indicating that consumers are buying less even as overall spending rises.
Although gold, silver, and platinum were the top-performing commodities over the past year, they came under pressure late last week.
Metals suffer a sharp pullback after hitting record highs.
Silver and gold suffered a sharp sell-off early Friday, dragging mining stocks and related ETFs lower. After an exceptional run in 2025, both metals have begun to give back part of their gains. Silver slid roughly 15%, falling back below the $100 level, while gold dropped about 7% and struggled to hold above $5,000. Weakness spread across the sector, with platinum and palladium also declining by around 14% and 12%, respectively.
Mining equities and ETFs came under heavy pressure. Producers such as Fresnillo, along with silver miners Endeavour and First Majestic, posted double-digit losses in pre-market trading. Silver-focused ETFs were hit even harder, with some falling as much as 25%.
Following last year’s explosive rally—when silver surged 150% and gold gained 65%—the market appears to be undergoing a correction. Overcrowded positioning, uncertainty surrounding the Federal Reserve’s policy outlook, and shifts in geopolitics and the U.S. dollar have all fueled the sell-off.
The move underscores that even traditional safe-haven assets are vulnerable to sharp volatility. When positioning becomes one-sided, even fundamentally strong markets can reverse quickly. Investors are now reassessing exposure, with some stepping in to buy the dip while others remain on the sidelines.
Top-Performing Commodities Over the Past Year
The three best performers are silver (+273%), platinum (+178%), and gold (+89%). These mark the strongest year-over-year gains for the metals since 1979–1980.
Can oil keep pace with the broader commodities rally?
The Bloomberg Commodity Index has surged, but the gains are not being driven by energy. Instead, strength is coming from other commodities, highlighting an unusual source of the rally.
Germany’s gold reserves are valued at nearly €500 billion.
Germany’s gold reserves are now valued at €496 billion. The Bundesbank holds 3,352 tonnes in total, with more than 1,200 tonnes stored in New York and the rest kept in Frankfurt and London.
The Swiss franc strengthens against the U.S. dollar.
While market attention remains focused on the U.S. dollar and the yen, the Swiss franc has quietly climbed to its strongest level in more than a decade.
Here’s why the move matters globally:
The “safe-haven” appeal
Investors are gravitating toward stability. With gold pushing above $5,000 an ounce and political uncertainty weighing on major economies, the Swiss franc has reasserted itself as a preferred refuge. The currency is up about 3% so far this year, building on a strong 14% gain last year.
The Swiss National Bank’s policy challenge
Such strength is a double-edged sword. While it helps keep inflation exceptionally low—currently around 0.1%—it also increases pressure on Switzerland’s export-driven economy. This leaves the Swiss National Bank facing a difficult decision:
Cut interest rates? With rates already at 0%, a return to negative territory would be a step policymakers are reluctant to take.
Here is a refined paraphrase that flows naturally from the previous section:
Intervene? Direct action in currency markets risks accusations of manipulation and could spark diplomatic frictions.
The global backdrop
When the world’s primary reserve currency—the U.S. dollar—shows signs of instability, capital doesn’t disappear; it reallocates. Increasingly, those flows are moving toward perceived safe havens, with the Swiss franc emerging as a key beneficiary.
In an era of heightened market volatility, genuine stability has become one of the rarest—and most valuable—assets.
U.S. companies account for 20 of the world’s 25 largest market capitalizations.
The remaining five companies are based outside the U.S., with one each from Europe, China, Taiwan, South Korea, and Saudi Arabia.
Within the United States, California dominates with six of the world’s largest companies by market value. Texas and Washington follow with three each, while New York is home to two. Nebraska, Arkansas, Indiana, New Jersey, Idaho, and Colorado each host one of the top global firms.
The endowment model faces mounting challenges.
For years, the endowment model—heavily tilted toward private assets—was held up as the gold standard for long-term investment success. Its track record was so compelling that institutions across the globe rushed to replicate it.
But every “secret sauce” loses its edge once it becomes common knowledge. As capital flooded into the same private markets, the once-distinct advantage began to erode.
Today, the space is increasingly crowded, and the classic endowment model is showing signs of strain. At the same time, more traditional portfolios with greater exposure to public markets are quietly regaining relevance.
The drivers are clear: too much money is chasing a limited pool of private opportunities, alpha in private equity is harder to extract, and liquid, public-market portfolios are proving more resilient than many expected.
This raises a critical question: is the era of private-heavy allocations coming to an end, or merely pausing? It may be time to revisit the “Yale model,” with a sharper focus on less congested private strategies and new sources of return—especially if the strong 60/40 performance of the past one and three years turns out to be more cyclical than enduring.
The S&P 500 closed the session up just over 50 basis points, in what felt like a familiar Monday pattern following Friday’s sharp drop in the 1-day VIX from 16.4 to 9.5. While the repetition can feel tiresome, the signal is clear: with volatility effectively reset, the index is once again at risk of stalling.
In other developments, the quarterly refunding announcement came in stronger than anticipated based on prior guidance, with the second quarter standing out as the key surprise. The Treasury now expects to issue $109 billion, assuming a Treasury General Account balance of $900 billion. The increase in the TGA target from $850 billion was unsurprising given the scale of U.S. debt and is a point that has been repeatedly highlighted.
Treasury yields were higher for much of the session following the stronger-than-expected ISM manufacturing data and extended those gains after the Treasury’s 3:00 p.m. ET announcement. Further clarity on the composition of the issuance is expected Wednesday morning.
The 30-year minus 3-month spread has returned to the upper boundary of its bull-flag formation. A decisive break above the 1.25% level could trigger further upside momentum, with scope for a move toward the 1.7%–1.75% range.
Absent a meaningful downside shock, the yield curve is likely to continue steepening, driven primarily by higher long-end yields.
As highlighted yesterday, Palantir’s (NASDAQ: PLTR) key resistance level from an options-positioning perspective sits near $160, which is where the stock stalled in after-hours trading. If shares fail to break decisively above that level, a reversal of recent gains and a sharp pullback during today’s session would not be unexpected.
The U.S. dollar weakened broadly in January, defying its usual seasonal strength — what lies ahead in February?
Key Takeaways From February Forex Seasonality
The U.S. dollar weakened broadly in January, defying its typical seasonal strength. While USD/JPY has historically underperformed in February, the relevance of seasonal averages may be diminished amid anticipated political developments on both sides of the Pacific. Meanwhile, tonight’s RBA meeting could be pivotal in determining whether AUD/USD retreats from three-year highs and aligns with its traditionally weak February seasonality.
The start of a new month provides an opportunity to revisit the seasonal patterns that have shaped the forex market over more than five decades, following the dismantling of the Bretton Woods system in 1971 and the emergence of the modern foreign exchange regime.
As always, these seasonal tendencies reflect historical averages, and individual months or years can deviate from long-term norms. As such, seasonality should be used alongside other forms of analysis when building a robust, long-term trading strategy, as past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Euro Forex Seasonality – EUR/USD Chart
Historically, February has tended to be mildly bullish for EUR/USD, with the world’s most heavily traded currency pair posting an average gain of around 0.3% over the past 50-plus years. In January, EUR/USD defied its typical seasonal pattern, pushing higher to briefly touch a 4.5-year high near 1.21 before retreating to finish the month lower. For a U.S. dollar that has historically underperformed against the euro, the prospect of another government shutdown—potentially delaying key economic releases such as the NFP report—offers an encouraging backdrop.
British Pound Forex Seasonality – GBP/USD Chart
As shown in the chart above, GBP/USD has historically tended to decline in February, posting average returns of roughly -0.3% since 1971. Similar to the euro, sterling has advanced for three consecutive months and briefly surged to multi-year highs in January before retreating to finish back within last year’s trading range. While no changes to interest rates are anticipated, this week’s BOE and ECB meetings remain key event risks for European currencies.
Japanese Yen Forex Seasonality – USD/JPY Chart
February has historically been a mildly bearish month for USD/JPY, with the pair posting average declines of around 0.2% since the Bretton Woods era. The year began with a volatile but ultimately weaker January for USD/JPY, running counter to its usual seasonal pattern amid broad-based U.S. dollar softness. With idiosyncratic political factors exerting an outsized influence on markets on both sides of the Pacific, traders may want to be cautious about placing too much weight on USD/JPY’s seasonal history at present.
Australian Dollar Forex Seasonality – AUD/USD Chart
Shifting focus to Australia, AUD/USD has historically posted modest declines in February, averaging losses of around 0.2% since 1971. In January, the Australian dollar rallied sharply, breaking out of a three-year range on the back of strong domestic employment and inflation data. While the RBA is widely expected to deliver a rate hike shortly after publication, the central bank’s forward guidance for the remainder of the year may prove more influential for the currency than the rate decision itself.
Canadian Dollar Forex Seasonality – USD/CAD Chart
Finally, February has historically been a mildly supportive month for USD/CAD, delivering an average gain of around 0.2%. At the time of writing, the pair is holding above support near its 15-month low in the mid-1.3500s after briefly dipping below that level last month. However, USD/CAD remains below its key medium- and long-term moving averages clustered around the 1.3800 area, marking that zone as a critical hurdle if bulls are to regain control after a difficult three-week stretch.
As always, we close by emphasizing that seasonal patterns are not definitive—even when they appear to be tracking well. This analysis should be paired with a thorough review of current fundamental and technical conditions across the major currency pairs.
Stablecoin issuer Tether said its newly launched MiningOS is a modular, self-hosted software stack designed to support mining operations ranging from small home rigs to large, multi-site industrial facilities.
What to know:
Tether has introduced MiningOS, an open-source, modular operating system for Bitcoin mining designed to streamline infrastructure management and lessen reliance on proprietary vendor software.
The self-hosted platform uses a peer-to-peer architecture, allowing miners to manage operations without centralized services and scale seamlessly from home rigs to multi-site industrial facilities.
Released under the Apache 2.0 license and built on Holepunch peer-to-peer protocols, MiningOS is hardware-agnostic and positions Tether alongside other advocates of open-source mining solutions, including Jack Dorsey’s Block.
Tether has unveiled an open-source operating system for Bitcoin mining, positioning it as a tool to simplify infrastructure management while cutting dependence on closed, vendor-controlled software. On Monday, the stablecoin issuer announced the launch of MiningOS (MOS), a modular and scalable mining platform built to serve everyone from individual hobbyists to large institutional operators.
The software aims to eliminate the “black box” nature of many existing mining setups, where hardware and monitoring systems are tightly locked into proprietary ecosystems. According to Tether, MiningOS prioritizes transparency, openness, and collaboration, and is designed with no vendor lock-in.
MOS operates on a self-hosted architecture and uses an integrated peer-to-peer network to communicate with connected devices, enabling miners to manage operations without centralized services. Operators can tailor settings via a companion interface based on their scale and production needs. Tether CEO Paolo Ardoino described MOS as a “complete operational platform” capable of scaling from a single home rig to industrial-grade mining sites spread across multiple locations.
Tether first outlined plans for an open-source mining operating system in June last year, saying new miners should be able to compete without relying on costly third-party software and management providers. The launch puts Tether alongside other crypto companies advocating open-source mining infrastructure, including Jack Dorsey’s Block.
MiningOS is released under the Apache 2.0 license and is built on Holepunch peer-to-peer protocols, a design choice intended to keep the software stack independent of external third-party dependencies.
Bernstein notes that the ongoing pullback in the crypto market may be short-lived, with Bitcoin potentially starting a recovery in the first half of the year.
The firm’s analysts point to rising institutional inflows and shifting US policy dynamics as factors that could underpin what they describe as Bitcoin’s “most consequential cycle.”
Other market participants anticipate capital rotation away from “overcrowded” precious metals and into Bitcoin.
Bitcoin may find a price floor near its previous cycle peak in the $60,000 area before staging a potential recovery in the first half of the year, according to analysts at Bernstein.
Led by Gautam Chhugani, the analysts noted that the recent pullback in crypto prices follows a period of strong outperformance by gold relative to Bitcoin over the past year. They added that Bitcoin’s market capitalization compared to that of gold is nearing a two-year low, as central banks have significantly increased their gold purchases over the past year.
Bernstein added that the recent market softness may represent a short-lived correction rather than the start of a prolonged bearish cycle, driven by several underlying factors.
New catalysts help Bitcoin remain resilient despite price weakness
The firm argued that robust institutional inflows into Bitcoin ETFs — which now hold roughly $165 billion in assets — alongside growing allocations from corporate treasuries, have helped the market move beyond the traditional boom-and-bust cycle.
Bernstein also pointed to the lack of miner-led capitulation, a feature commonly seen in past market downturns. Instead, miners have increasingly diversified their revenue by expanding into AI-focused data center operations, reducing their reliance on Bitcoin price fluctuations.
US policy developments were cited as another potential upside catalyst. Bernstein highlighted the creation of a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve funded by seized government BTC holdings, while potential changes in Federal Reserve leadership under nominee Kevin Warsh could further enhance Bitcoin’s standing. The analysts suggested that broader political alignment with the crypto sector could pave the way for Bitcoin to be viewed as a sovereign or reserve-like asset.
“We do not expect a passive response from the U.S. government if digital asset markets continue to decline,” the analysts wrote.
The latest assessment follows Bernstein’s projection last month that Bitcoin had bottomed near $80,000. At the time of publication, the world’s largest cryptocurrency was trading around $78,000, up 1.8% over the past few hours.
Hyperliquid rises 8% above its 200-day EMA on Tuesday, extending Monday’s nearly 9% advance.
The project unveiled plans to support outcome trading through the HIP-4 proposal.
Retail participation picks up as HYPE futures Open Interest posts double-digit gains to around $1.85 billion.
Hyperliquid (HYPE) continued its recovery on Tuesday, rising 8% at the time of writing, fueled by optimism surrounding the HIP-4 proposal aimed at introducing outcome trading, including prediction markets and bounded options contracts. Growing retail engagement with the decentralized exchange and its native token is reflected in a more than 25% jump in HYPE futures Open Interest, signaling strong capital inflows. From a technical perspective, HYPE maintains a bullish bias, with strengthening buying pressure and improving trend momentum.
Hyperliquid rekindles retail interest with prediction market plans
Hyperliquid unveiled the HIP-4 proposal on Monday during early US trading, outlining plans to introduce prediction markets and fixed-range options contracts in an effort to compete with established platforms such as Polymarket and Kalshi. Retail participation in prediction markets has surged amid heightened volatility across global financial markets and geopolitical developments.
The latest initiative marks an expansion of the Hyperliquid exchange beyond commodity trading, which was introduced under the HIP-3 proposal, and underscores the platform’s ongoing development aimed at better meeting trader demand.
CoinGlass data shows that HYPE futures Open Interest (OI) jumped 27% over the last 24 hours to $1.84 billion, indicating significant inflows. Typically, such a large capital inflow in futures markets during an uptrend indicates an upside bias among traders.
A massive wipeout of short sellers over the last 24 hours, evidenced by short liquidations of $31.69 million outpacing long liquidations of $1.58 million, corroborates the upside bias in HYPE futures. Additionally, the funding rate of 0.0046% signals a bullish interest among traders.
Technical outlook on Hyperliquid: Can HYPE reach the $50 level?
Hyperliquid rebounded from the 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $30.61, posting gains of around 24% so far this week. At the time of writing on Tuesday, HYPE is up 14% on the day and has reclaimed the 200-day EMA at $32.89. The next upside hurdles are seen at $35.51 — aligned with the August 2 low — and the R1 Pivot Point at $37.07.
The broader technical structure reinforces a strong recovery bias, with longer-term EMAs trending higher above shorter-term averages on the daily chart. A sustained close above $37.07 could pave the way toward the R2 Pivot Point at $43.15, followed by a key resistance zone near the $50.00 psychological mark.
Momentum indicators also favor further upside. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) continues to strengthen, with histogram bars expanding above the zero line, signaling accelerating bullish momentum. Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 71, entering overbought territory and reflecting strong buying pressure.
On the downside, a failure to sustain a move above the 200-day EMA at $32.89 would undermine the bullish outlook and could trigger a pullback toward the 100-day and 50-day EMAs, located at $30.62 and $28.03, respectively.
NZD/USD sees renewed buying interest on Tuesday as multiple factors weigh on the US Dollar.
Expectations for two additional Fed rate cuts in 2026, along with a positive risk environment, undermine demand for the greenback.
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s relatively hawkish stance supports the NZD and adds to the pair’s upside.
The NZD/USD pair shows notable resilience below the 0.6000 psychological level and gathers strong upside momentum during Tuesday’s Asian session. Spot prices advance to the 0.6040–0.6045 zone in the past hour, snapping a two-day losing streak amid a modest pullback in the US Dollar.
As markets digest Kevin Warsh’s nomination as the next Federal Reserve Chair, expectations that the Fed will deliver two additional rate cuts this year continue to cap the US Dollar’s rebound from a four-year low reached last week. At the same time, an upbeat risk environment weighs on the Greenback’s safe-haven appeal and supports demand for the risk-sensitive New Zealand Dollar.
Investor sentiment was further buoyed after US President Donald Trump announced on Monday that the United States and India have finalized a trade agreement and will immediately move to reduce tariffs on each other’s goods. In addition, signs of easing tensions between the US and Iran over Tehran’s nuclear program have reduced fears of military escalation, reinforcing the positive market mood.
Further support for the Kiwi comes from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s relatively hawkish outlook on the policy path. The RBNZ has signaled a potential end to its easing cycle after cutting rates to 2.25% in November, and now projects the cash rate at 2.20% in the first quarter of 2026 and 2.65% by the fourth quarter of 2027.
Meanwhile, the release of the December 2025 Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) and the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report has been delayed due to a partial US government shutdown. As a result, commentary from key FOMC officials will be closely watched for cues on USD direction and could provide fresh impetus to NZD/USD, which appears poised to extend its two-week uptrend.
Gold sees modest buying interest on Tuesday as the USD takes a breather from its rebound off a four-year low.
Kevin Warsh’s nomination as the next Fed Chair may help limit USD downside and restrain gains in the precious metal.
Easing geopolitical and trade tensions could continue to cap further upside in XAU/USD.
Gold (XAU/USD) extends Monday’s rebound from the $4,400 area — its lowest level since January 6 — and picks up modest follow-through during the Asian session on Tuesday. However, the metal struggles to sustain the upside momentum, paring part of its intraday gains and easing back toward the $4,856 zone amid a confluence of bearish factors.
US President Donald Trump’s nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve Chair has removed a major source of uncertainty. In addition, a stronger-than-expected US ISM Manufacturing PMI released on Monday has helped the US Dollar hold onto its recent recovery from a four-year low, creating headwinds for gold prices.
Further weighing on the precious metal are signs of easing US–Iran tensions over Iran’s nuclear program, the US–India trade agreement, and CME Group’s decision to increase margin requirements for precious metals futures. These factors, combined with a generally positive risk tone in global equity markets, call for caution among XAU/USD bulls.
As a result, it may be prudent to wait for sustained follow-through buying before concluding that the recent sharp corrective decline from the $5,600 region — the record high reached last week — has fully played out. Looking ahead, the US JOLTS Job Openings data could provide fresh direction later in the North American session.
Daily Digest Market Movers: Gold supported by a weaker USD; upside remains limited amid upbeat risk sentiment
US President Donald Trump on Friday nominated Kevin Warsh to replace Jerome Powell as Federal Reserve Chair in May, subject to Senate confirmation. Given Warsh’s hawkish credentials, he is expected to remain alert to any rise in inflation expectations.
Separately, CME Group announced over the weekend that margin requirements for precious metals futures will be raised from Monday’s market close. This triggered a second consecutive day of liquidation, pushing gold to a four-week low on Monday.
On the data front, the Institute for Supply Management reported that US manufacturing activity expanded for the first time in a year. The Manufacturing PMI jumped to 52.6 in January from 47.9 previously, signaling a sharp rebound.
Meanwhile, Trump said on Monday that the US and India have finalized a trade agreement and will immediately begin lowering tariffs on each other’s goods. In addition, expectations that the US and Iran will resume nuclear talks on Friday further lifted investor confidence.
The US Dollar eases on Tuesday, retreating from an over one-week high reached the previous session, offering some support to gold during Asian trading. However, the aforementioned headwinds may continue to cap upside in the precious metal.
Market participants will look ahead to the US JOLTS Job Openings report on Tuesday, followed by Wednesday’s US ADP private employment data and ISM Services PMI. These releases, along with Fed commentary, are likely to influence the USD and XAU/USD.
Gold’s mixed technical picture calls for caution before aggressive directional positioning
The commodity displayed resilience below its 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and rebounded from the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the July 2025–January 2026 rally on Monday. The rising slope of the SMA indicates that downside moves may continue to attract buying interest. In addition, XAU/USD remains above the 38.2% retracement level, located around the $4,645–4,650 region, which should provide immediate support. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently at 51.91 and trending higher, signaling stabilizing momentum.
That said, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains below both the signal line and the zero line, maintaining a bearish bias. The expanding negative histogram suggests that downside momentum is gaining traction. On the upside, any further recovery could shift focus toward the 23.6% retracement at $4,995.94. Conversely, a failure to defend the initial support zone may leave the rebound exposed to deeper consolidation.
The Reserve Bank of Australia’s board voted on Tuesday to raise the Official Cash Rate by 25 basis points to 3.85% from 3.60% at the conclusion of its February policy meeting, in a move widely anticipated by markets.
Overview of the RBA’s Monetary Policy Statement
The Reserve Bank Board’s policy decision was unanimous. The Board reaffirmed that it will continue to closely monitor incoming data and evolving risks when determining future policy settings.
Although inflation has fallen significantly from its 2022 peak, it rose materially in the second half of 2025. Recent data confirm a renewed strengthening in inflationary pressures, partly reflecting tighter capacity constraints and stronger-than-expected private demand. The Board judged that inflation is likely to remain above the target range for some time and therefore considered an increase in the cash rate target appropriate.
While some of the inflation pickup is expected to be temporary, demand has been growing faster than anticipated and capacity pressures are greater than previously assessed. Labour market conditions remain slightly tight, though they have stabilised in recent months. The Board reiterated its commitment to achieving price stability and full employment and stated it would take whatever action it deems necessary to meet its mandate.
There remains considerable uncertainty around the outlook for domestic activity, inflation, and the degree of monetary policy restrictiveness. The forecasts assume the cash rate rises to 3.9% by June and 4.2% by December, with higher inflation projections extending through to the end of 2027. The assumed policy tightening is expected to help restore balance between demand and supply, although the economy is currently judged to be operating above potential.
Private demand growth was much stronger than expected in late 2025, financial conditions may now be somewhat accommodative, and credit growth has accelerated, with the cash rate sitting below some estimates of neutral. The RBA significantly lifted its forecasts for business investment—partly driven by data centre expansion—as well as government spending and dwelling investment, while noting that some sector-specific demand may not persist.
GDP growth is projected at 2.3% in Q4 2025, slowing to 1.8% in Q4 2026 and 1.6% in Q4 2027. CPI inflation is forecast at 4.2% in Q2 2026, easing to 3.6% by Q4 and returning to around 2.6–2.7% by 2027–28. Trimmed mean inflation follows a similar path. The unemployment rate is expected to gradually rise to 4.3% by Q4 2026 and 4.6% by mid-2028.
Globally, economic growth in 2025 has been stronger than anticipated, with downside risks diminishing.
AUD/USD response to the RBA’s interest rate decision
The Australian Dollar attracts renewed buying interest immediately after the RBA’s decision, pushing AUD/USD back above 0.7000. At the time of writing, the pair is up 0.75% on the day.
The following section was published on February 2 at 21:45 GMT as a preview of the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) policy announcement.
The Reserve Bank of Australia is expected to raise interest rates by 25 basis points to 3.85% in February. Comments from RBA Governor Michele Bullock and updated economic forecasts may provide guidance on the future path of rate hikes. The Australian Dollar is likely to experience heightened volatility around the RBA policy announcement.
The Reserve Bank of Australia is widely anticipated to lift the Official Cash Rate (OCR) from 3.6% to 3.85% following the conclusion of its first monetary policy meeting of 2026.
The decision is scheduled for release at 03:30 GMT on Tuesday, alongside the Monetary Policy Statement (MPS) and quarterly economic forecasts. This will be followed by a press conference with RBA Governor Michele Bullock at 04:30 GMT.
The Australian Dollar is expected to see sharp moves as markets digest the RBA’s policy decision and revised economic outlook.
RBA is set to break the global easing trend
The Reserve Bank of Australia is widely expected to deliver its first interest rate increase in more than two years at its February policy meeting on Tuesday, breaking from the global easing trend as it seeks to rein in mounting inflationary pressures.
Speaking at the press conference following the December policy decision, RBA Governor Michele Bullock stressed the central bank’s commitment to controlling inflation, stating that “the Board will do what it needs to do to get inflation down.” She added that if incoming data showed inflation was not easing, it would be taken into account at the February meeting.
Data released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) last Wednesday showed inflation accelerating, with the monthly Consumer Price Index (CPI) rising to 3.8% in December from 3.4% in November, exceeding market expectations of a 3.6% increase.
Core inflation also surprised to the upside, as the trimmed mean CPI — the RBA’s preferred underlying inflation gauge — climbed 0.9% quarter-on-quarter in the fourth quarter, above forecasts of a 0.8% rise.
In response to the stronger inflation data, money markets lifted the implied probability of a February rate hike to 73%, up from 60% previously, according to Reuters.
Australia’s four major banks — ANZ, Westpac, Commonwealth Bank of Australia and National Australia Bank (NAB) — have also revised their outlooks, now expecting a 25-basis-point rate increase from the RBA in February.
Further support for a policy tightening came from the labour market. ABS data released on January 22 showed the unemployment rate unexpectedly falling to 4.1% in December from 4.3%, marking its lowest level since May. Net employment rose sharply by 65.2K after declining by 28.7K in November.
How will the RBA’s decision affect AUD/USD?
The Australian Dollar faces two-way risks against the US Dollar in the run-up to the RBA policy decision.
AUD/USD could end its recent correction and regain upside momentum if Governor Michele Bullock’s remarks and updated economic forecasts indicate that further rate increases remain likely in the months ahead.
On the other hand, the pair may extend its pullback should Governor Bullock temper expectations for additional tightening, particularly if inflation projections appear stable.
Dhwani Mehta, Asian Session Lead Analyst at FXStreet, outlines the key technical levels to watch following the policy announcement.
“AUD/USD is trading below the 0.7000 mark ahead of the RBA rate decision, consolidating after a pullback from a three-year high of 0.7094 reached on Thursday. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) has retreated from overbought conditions and is now testing the 60 level, indicating that the broader bullish bias remains intact.”
Mehta adds, “The pair could reverse higher and embark on a fresh uptrend toward the 0.7050 psychological level if the RBA delivers a hawkish rate hike. Further resistance is located at the 2026 high of 0.7094, followed by the February 2023 peak at 0.7158. Conversely, a dovish outcome could see AUD/USD probe the 0.6900 region. A decisive break below this area may open the door to further losses toward the 0.6850 psychological level, with the 0.6800 round figure acting as the final support for buyers.”
Taiwan should prioritise trade and economic cooperation with fellow democracies rather than China, President Lai Ching-te said on Tuesday, as his government outlined plans to deepen collaboration with the United States in areas such as artificial intelligence and critical minerals.
Senior officials from Taiwan and the United States discussed cooperation on AI, technology and drones at a high-level forum held last week, with the U.S. State Department describing Taiwan as a “vital partner.” The two sides also signed statements on economic security cooperation and endorsed the Pax Silica Declaration, a U.S.-led initiative aimed at safeguarding AI and semiconductor supply chains amid growing competition with Beijing, which claims Taiwan as its territory.
Speaking at a news conference following the U.S.-Taiwan Economic Prosperity Partnership Dialogue, Lai praised the outcome of the talks, saying Taiwan was on the right economic trajectory and ready to work with democratic partners to drive future growth.
His remarks came as Kuomintang (KMT) deputy chairman Hsiao Hsu-tsen was in Beijing for a think-tank exchange with China’s Communist Party on issues including AI and tourism. Lai acknowledged the opposition’s differing views, contrasting slower economic growth under previous KMT administrations—which pursued closer trade ties with China—with stronger growth since his Democratic Progressive Party took office in 2016.
Lai said Taiwan faced a clear choice between closer cooperation with the U.S., Japan and Europe, or renewed economic dependence on China. The KMT did not immediately respond, though Hsiao said in Beijing that cross-strait cooperation served both sides’ interests.
China has refused to engage with Lai, branding him a separatist, a charge he rejects, saying Taiwan’s future can only be decided by its people. Lai reiterated his willingness to hold talks with Beijing on the basis of equality and mutual respect.
The Reserve Bank of Australia raised its policy rate by 25 basis points on Tuesday, in line with expectations, and cautioned that inflation is likely to stay above target in the months ahead.
The unanimous decision lifted the cash rate target to 3.85% from 3.65%, following a renewed uptick in inflation late last year that pushed underlying price pressures back above the RBA’s 2%–3% target range.
The central bank said private demand remained resilient and domestic capacity constraints persisted, factors it expects will keep inflation elevated for some time. While some of the recent rise in inflation reflects temporary influences, the RBA noted that demand has been expanding faster than anticipated, capacity pressures are stronger than previously assessed, and labour market conditions remain tight.
The RBA stopped short of signalling further rate increases, instead reaffirming its commitment to maintaining price stability and full employment, and said it would take whatever action it deems necessary to achieve those objectives.
Asian equities bounced back strongly on Tuesday, led by advances in South Korean and Japanese markets as AI-linked stocks rallied, while investors looked ahead to the Reserve Bank of Australia’s policy announcement later in the session.
The recovery came after a solid overnight close on Wall Street, driven by gains in technology and semiconductor shares. Market participants are also focused on major earnings releases this week, including results from Amazon and Alphabet.
U.S. equity index futures ticked higher during Asian trading hours on Tuesday.
KOSPI surges 5% while Nikkei gains 3% amid tech-led rally
Sentiment toward AI-related equities has been choppy in recent sessions. Earlier optimism over rapid adoption and robust long-term growth prospects was tempered by heavy profit-taking after Microsoft’s earnings underscored substantial capital expenditure needs, prompting concerns about near-term margin pressure.
Tuesday’s rally, however, indicated that investors were prepared to overlook short-term challenges, betting that sustained demand for AI infrastructure will continue to underpin chipmakers and technology suppliers.
South Korea’s KOSPI surged close to 5%, with major chipmakers Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix rising between 6.5% and 8%.
Investors rotated back into AI-linked stocks on expectations that long-term demand for advanced memory and processors remains solid.
Japan’s Nikkei 225 advanced more than 3%, supported by broad gains in chipmakers and technology shares, as well as a weaker yen.
Defying the broader regional rally, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index fell more than 1%. In mainland China, the CSI 300 edged down 0.4%, while the Shanghai Composite was little changed. By contrast, gains were seen elsewhere in the region, with Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 rising 1.1% and Singapore’s Straits Times Index up nearly 1%.
US, India finalize trade agreement; RBA policy decision awaited
India’s Nifty 50 futures surged more than 1% ahead of the market open after U.S. President Donald Trump announced a trade agreement with India on Monday, cutting tariffs on Indian exports to 18% from 50%.
The deal follows months of negotiations marked by sharply higher punitive tariffs and is widely viewed as a move toward restoring normal trade relations. It reportedly includes India gradually reducing purchases of Russian oil while boosting imports of U.S. energy and other goods.
Regional focus now shifts to Australia, where the Reserve Bank of Australia is set to deliver its interest rate decision later on Tuesday. Markets and economists are pricing in a 25-basis-point increase, which would lift the cash rate to around 3.85%, effectively reversing the RBA’s brief easing phase amid stubborn inflation and a tight labour market.
S&P 500 futures edge lower as investors prepare for a packed week of corporate earnings and major central bank meetings.
The U.S. payrolls report looms as a critical test for market direction following the Fed’s pause in rate cuts.
Japan’s Nikkei records a rare gain, supported by polls pointing to a likely LDP majority victory.
Gold and silver extend sharp losses after Friday’s volatility, adding to broader market unease.
The dollar stabilizes while the yen stays weak; Asian equities mostly track Wall Street futures lower.
Roughly 25% of S&P 500 companies report earnings this week, including Alphabet, Amazon, and Eli Lilly.
The dollar jumped after reports that President Trump nominated Kevin Warsh as Fed chair, while CFTC data show asset managers increased bearish dollar positions by $8.3 billion in the week to Jan. 27.
Copper falls further, extending last week’s steep declines as metals traders brace for continued volatility; U.S. natural gas futures slump, reversing Friday’s spike on milder weather forecasts.
Bitcoin slips below $76,000 in thin weekend trading, down about 40% from its 2025 peak, with demand fading amid thinning liquidity and subdued investor sentiment.
Dow Jones, S&P 500, and Nasdaq futures fell on Sunday night. The U.S. federal government entered another shutdown on Saturday, although it is widely expected to be resolved quickly.
A busy week of earnings lies ahead, led by Alphabet (NASDAQ: GOOGL), Amazon (NASDAQ: AMZN), Eli Lilly (NYSE: LLY), Palantir (NASDAQ: PLTR), Advanced Micro Devices (NASDAQ: AMD), and Disney (NYSE: DIS), with Disney set to report early on Monday.
Key U.S. Economic Data and Earnings Ahead
Wall Street will also be closely focused on the U.S. monthly jobs report due on February 6, after the Federal Reserve signaled some stabilization in the labor market by pausing its rate-cutting cycle last week.
Following the decision to hold interest rates steady, Fed officials will be watching hiring trends closely, balancing persistent inflation risks against signs of cooling job growth. Some policymakers continue to argue that additional rate cuts may be needed to support employment. Investors will also keep an eye on February consumer sentiment, consumer credit figures, and PMI data for both manufacturing and services.
Economic calendar:
Mon, Feb 2: ISM manufacturing PMI (Jan); Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic speaks.
Tue, Feb 3: Job openings (Dec).
Wed, Feb 4: ADP employment (Jan); remarks from Fed Governor Lisa Cook; ISM services PMI (Jan) in focus.
Thu, Feb 5: Initial jobless claims (week ending Jan 31).
Fri, Feb 6: U.S. employment report (Jan); preliminary consumer sentiment (Feb) and consumer credit data also due.
Earnings calendar:
Mon, Feb 2: Palantir (PLTR), Disney (DIS), Mizuho Financial (MFG)
Wed, Feb 4: Alphabet (GOOG, GOOGL), Eli Lilly (LLY), AbbVie (ABBV), Novartis (NVS), Novo Nordisk (NVO), Uber (UBER), Qualcomm (QCOM)
Thu, Feb 5: Amazon (AMZN), Philip Morris (PM), Shell (SHEL), ConocoPhillips (COP), Bristol-Myers Squibb (BMY)
Fri, Feb 6: Toyota Motor (TM)
Amazon (AMZN) shares jumped after the company reported strong third-quarter results, posting adjusted EPS of $1.95, up 36% year over year, on revenue of $180.2 billion, a 13% increase. AWS revenue rose 20% to $33 billion, while advertising sales climbed 24% to $17.7 billion. According to The Wall Street Journal, Amazon is in discussions to invest as much as $50 billion in OpenAI, having already committed $8 billion to Anthropic, for which AWS serves as the primary cloud and AI-training partner using its Trainium and Inferentia chips. Looking ahead, FactSet forecasts Amazon’s fourth-quarter EPS at $1.96, up 6%, with revenue expected to rise 13% to $211.4 billion.
FactSet estimates that Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) will report fourth-quarter EPS of $1.32 on revenue of $9.65 billion, while analysts forecast EPS of $1.23 and revenue of $9.38 billion for the following quarter. Some analysts expect AMD to exceed fourth-quarter expectations when it reports on February 3.
Analysts also anticipate that Alphabet (GOOGL) will report quarterly EPS of $2.58, representing 20% year-over-year growth, on revenue of $94.7 billion, up 16%. Consensus EPS estimates for the quarter have been trimmed by 0.4% over the past 30 days.
Technical Analysis:
DJIA Index
The Dow Jones Industrial Average is currently trading in a rectangular consolidation pattern, with prices compressing between 49,700 and 48,450. A decisive breakout above or breakdown below this range is likely to set the direction of the next major trend.
DJIA Daily Candlestick Chart
Nasdaq 100 Index
The Nasdaq 100 (NDX) failed to sustain gains above 25,860 last week and remains range-bound between 25,860 and 25,200, with stronger support near 24,650. A clear break below 25,200 would increase the risk of a decline toward 24,650. Conversely, if 25,200 continues to hold on repeated tests, the index is likely to remain choppy within the 25,860–25,200 range.
NDX Daily Candlestick Chart
SPX Index
The S&P 500 (SPX) has been hovering around the 6,900–6,890 zone for several weeks, with 7,000 acting as a key psychological resistance for bulls. For now, price action is expected to remain range-bound between 7,000 and 6,880. A decisive break below 6,880 would likely open the door to a deeper pullback toward 6,830.
The U.S. dollar has extended its modest recovery as gold and silver have sold off sharply, and conditions now appear stable enough for incoming data to drive FX markets this week. The U.S. economic calendar is set to culminate in solid payrolls and unemployment figures, potentially leaving room for further upside in the dollar.
Elsewhere, the European Central Bank may avoid focusing heavily on the euro in its messaging, while the Reserve Bank of Australia could deliver a rate hike as soon as tonight.
USD: Some Health Restored
The dollar is showing renewed strength. The de-basement trade that appeared to drive last week’s sharp decline in the USD has begun to unwind following Kevin Warsh’s nomination by President Donald Trump as the next Federal Reserve chair. The steep correction in previously overbought precious metals has likely provided additional support for the dollar, although we have consistently argued that the earlier USD selloff had become overly disconnected from underlying macro fundamentals.
With the dollar now partially recovered, we expect price action to realign more closely with incoming data and short-term rate dynamics this week. The U.S. economic calendar is busy, featuring ISM surveys (with manufacturing due today), JOLTS and ADP reports ahead of Friday’s payrolls release. Our expectation is for around 80,000 jobs added and an unchanged unemployment rate of 4.4%, which could help underpin further stabilization or recovery in the dollar.
In the meantime, we are watching closely for signs of dip-buying interest in EUR/USD. We see the key support zone around 1.1880–1.1900, and the recent break below this area suggests some renewed confidence in the dollar. A renewed rally in the euro without clear data or event-driven justification would imply that damage to the dollar may be more persistent. For now, however, we maintain a short-term bullish outlook for the USD.
EUR: Concerns over euro strength may be overstated
This week’s key question is how concerned the European Central Bank truly is about the euro’s recent appreciation. With EUR/USD no longer hovering near the much-feared 1.20 level, the likelihood of an explicit reaction from ECB officials has diminished—any comments were always more likely to emerge after the meeting or in the minutes rather than in the main policy statement.
At Thursday’s meeting, there may be little to prompt a change in President Christine Lagarde’s long-standing reluctance to comment on exchange rate levels. At the same time, markets do not appear to be pricing in significant risk of verbal pushback against euro strength, suggesting that the threshold for a negative euro response is relatively low.
Eurozone core inflation data due on Wednesday are expected to ease slightly to 2.2%. Our economists see a marginally higher print of 2.3%, but either outcome is unlikely to have much impact on the currency. For now, EUR/USD should continue to be driven largely by dollar sentiment, and if confidence in the USD continues to recover as expected, we see the pair moving toward our short-term fair value estimate of 1.1770 in the near term.
AUD: RBA rate hike hangs in the balance
The Australian dollar has been among the hardest hit by the abrupt unwinding of long positions in gold and silver. More broadly, AUD/USD appeared to be pricing in an excessive amount of optimism in January, particularly given unchanged interest rate differentials. Unlike EUR/USD—where rate expectations have shifted little on the euro side—AUD/USD has seen notable moves at the front end of the curve on both sides.
Markets are now pricing in around 19 basis points of tightening from the Reserve Bank of Australia at tonight’s meeting, and we align with consensus in expecting a 25 bp rate hike to 3.85%. That said, the decision looks finely balanced. While the upside surprise in December CPI, coupled with a strong housing market, supports a hike, the RBA is unlikely to signal the start of a new tightening cycle. With markets already pricing at least one additional hike by year-end, any indication that this move is “one and done” would limit the support a hike could provide to the Australian dollar.
In our view, the impact of RBA tightening on AUD/USD is more likely to become apparent beyond the near term, once the overwhelming volatility in the U.S. dollar subsides. Consistent with our USD outlook, and given that market pricing is already skewed toward a hawkish outcome, we expect AUD/USD to trade lower in the coming weeks before eventually settling into a more sustainable recovery path beyond the 0.70 level.
The Lone Ranger began as a radio series in 1933 and later ran as a television show for 21 years until 1954. The story follows the last surviving Texas Ranger, who is nursed back to health by Tonto, a Potawatomi tribesman. Together, they ride across the American West on their horses, Silver and Scout, fighting injustice while financing their mission through a silver mine that supplies both income and ammunition.
When the pair set off in pursuit of villains, the announcer famously cried, “Hi-Yo Silver, Away!” The show’s iconic theme music was written for the film The Lone Ranger and the City of Gold.
On Friday, however, silver traders were echoing a very different refrain: “Hi-No Silver, Away!” Silver led a broad selloff across precious metals and related ETFs. The SLV ETF plunged 28.5%, while GLD fell 10.3%. Despite the steep losses, trading volumes did not point to a full-blown panic in either fund.
Along with our colleague Michael Brush, we spent the morning reviewing the various explanations behind silver’s one-day bear market and gold’s sharp one-day correction. Early on Friday, the initial selloff may have been triggered by President Donald Trump’s nomination of Kevin Warsh to replace Jerome Powell as Federal Reserve chair. On the geopolitical side, reports that Iran is willing to negotiate with the U.S.—but only on terms Washington finds unacceptable—seem unlikely to have driven the rout.
Later in the day, at 2:00 p.m. EST, CME Group announced another increase in maintenance margin requirements—the second hike in three days—taking effect after the market close on Monday, February 2. Maintenance margins were raised to 8% from 6% for gold, to 15% from 11% for silver, to 15% from 12% for platinum, and to 16% from 14% for palladium. Margins on copper were also increased.
By announcing the margin increase ahead of Friday’s close, the CME effectively signaled to traders that any positions carried into the weekend would face substantially higher collateral requirements by Monday. This prompted many market participants to unwind positions in the final hours of Friday’s session, contributing to the sharp late-day acceleration in the price decline.
As a result, we discount the various conspiracy theories circulating in the market, including suggestions that the move marks the beginning of another Hunt Brothers–style silver crisis like March 27, 1980, when silver prices collapsed from about $21 to below $11 in a single day.
Notably, Warsh’s nomination should arguably have been supportive for precious metals, as he has favored boosting growth through lower interest rates and has downplayed the need for the Fed to be overly concerned about inflation at present.
Friday’s December PPI report was also hotter than expected and, in theory, should have added to the bullish case for precious metals. Headline producer prices rose 0.5% month over month, while the core index increased 0.7%. On a year-over-year basis, headline and core PPI inflation climbed to 3.0% and 3.3%, respectively. The data suggest producers may be beginning to pass on higher costs from tariffs and a weaker currency further along the supply chain.
We asked Michael Brush for an update on insider buying activity, and he said: “It’s still early, but so far corporate executives and directors have shown little interest in buying the recent market weakness. Their cautious stance remains in place. Buying by investors classified as insiders due to large holdings—10% owners—has increased slightly, but this type of activity is generally less meaningful as a market signal.”
JPMorgan has lifted its year-end 2026 gold price forecast to $6,300 an ounce, pointing to sustained and strengthening demand from central banks and investors despite the recent bout of sharp price volatility.
Gold and silver both saw steep pullbacks late last week after rapid rallies left prices overstretched, with the move partly driven by a rebound in the U.S. dollar. Even so, JPMorgan analysts said the broader environment continues to favor gold, arguing that the “longer-term rally momentum will remain intact” and that they remain “firmly bullish” over the medium term, supported by a structural diversification trend.
A key factor behind the higher forecast is stronger-than-expected buying from the official sector. Central banks purchased around 230 tonnes of gold in the fourth quarter, taking total buying for 2025 to roughly 863 tonnes, even as prices moved above $4,000 an ounce. JPMorgan now expects about 800 tonnes of central bank demand in 2026, citing ongoing reserve diversification that still has room to run.
Investor demand has also picked up, with analysts highlighting rising ETF holdings, solid physical bar and coin purchases, and broader portfolio allocations to gold as a hedge against macroeconomic and geopolitical risks.
“Gold remains a dynamic, multi-faceted portfolio hedge, and investor demand has continued to exceed our previous expectations,” analysts led by Gregory Shearer wrote. “As a result, we now see sufficient demand from central banks and investors to push gold prices to $6,300 per ounce by the end of 2026.”
While acknowledging the speed of the rally, the analysts dismissed concerns that prices are nearing unsustainable levels, noting that demand remains well above the historical threshold needed to keep the market tightening. “While the air gets thinner at higher price levels, we are not yet close to a point where the structural gold rally risks collapsing under its own weight,” they added.
On silver, JPMorgan struck a more cautious tone following the metal’s sharp surge and subsequent pullback. Without central banks acting as consistent dip buyers, the analysts said they are “somewhat apprehensive” about the risk of a deeper near-term correction in silver relative to gold.
Even so, they see a higher average price floor of around $75 to $80 an ounce, arguing that silver is unlikely to fully give up its recent gains. Over the longer term, JPMorgan expects higher prices to reshape fundamentals, gradually easing the supply-demand imbalance that underpinned silver’s recent rally.
European stocks moved lower on Monday as a selloff in precious metals rattled investor sentiment at the start of a week packed with corporate earnings, central bank meetings, and key economic data.
By 03:05 ET (08:05 GMT), Germany’s DAX was down 0.4%, France’s CAC 40 slipped 0.5%, and the U.K.’s FTSE 100 fell 0.6%.
Investor sentiment pressured by further declines in precious metals
Market sentiment was sharply dented on Monday as gold and silver extended their selloff, deepening losses from Friday’s rout. The nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve chair sparked a strong rebound in the U.S. dollar, triggering widespread profit-taking and bringing an end to a rally that had pushed precious metals to record highs only days earlier.
Spot gold slid just under 6% to $4,597 per ounce on Monday, after plunging nearly 10% on Friday—its steepest single-day decline since 1983.
Silver, which had surged alongside gold on safe-haven demand and speculative inflows, also remained under heavy pressure following last Friday’s 30% collapse, marking its worst session since March 1980.
Adding to investor unease, CME announced increases to margin requirements on several metals contracts effective from Monday’s market close, suggesting some traders may be struggling to meet margin calls and could be forced to sell liquid assets.
Intesa Sanpaolo posts strong 2025 profit
Shifting back to the corporate sector, another heavy week of quarterly earnings is ahead, with roughly 30% of the EuroSTOXX index’s market capitalization due to report results.
Earlier on Monday, Intesa Sanpaolo (BIT: ISP) posted a 7.6% increase in 2025 net profit to €9.3 billion and unveiled plans to return €8.8 billion to shareholders through dividends and share buybacks, reinforcing its status as one of Europe’s most profitable banks.
Meanwhile, Swiss lender Julius Baer (SIX: BAER) reported 2025 net profit of CHF 764 million, down 25% from the previous year but slightly above market expectations of CHF 679 million.
In the U.S., attention this week will focus on technology heavyweights Alphabet (NASDAQ: GOOGL) and Amazon (NASDAQ: AMZN), especially as sentiment toward AI-related stocks has weakened after Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT) flagged rising costs from heavy AI investment, raising doubts over near-term returns.
German retail sales edge up
Data released earlier in the session showed that German retail sales increased by 0.1% in December from the previous month, improving from a 0.5% decline in November.
Manufacturing activity figures for January are due later in the session for the eurozone and are expected to show a modest improvement, although remaining in contraction territory.
Meanwhile, data released on Saturday indicated that China’s official manufacturing PMI fell further below the 50 threshold in January, signaling continued contraction in factory activity and underscoring ongoing weakness in domestic demand.
Both the European Central Bank and the Bank of England are set to hold policy meetings this week, with each widely expected to leave interest rates unchanged.
Oil falls as geopolitical risk premium fades
Oil prices dropped sharply on Monday as fears of a potential U.S. strike on Iran eased after President Donald Trump said the Middle Eastern oil producer was “seriously talking” with Washington.
Brent crude futures fell 4.8% to $65.97 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude slid 5% to $61.91 a barrel.
Oil prices had surged last week as markets priced in a higher risk of supply disruptions from the region, following repeated threats by Trump toward Iran over its nuclear program and ongoing domestic unrest.
Those geopolitical risks appeared to recede after Trump’s comments over the weekend.
Meanwhile, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, known collectively as OPEC+, left output levels unchanged at their weekend meeting, in line with expectations.
U.S. stock index futures edge lower as a sharp selloff in gold and silver weighs on investor sentiment ahead of a packed week of major corporate earnings and key economic releases. Bitcoin continues to slide after dropping below $80,000 over the weekend. Elsewhere, Oracle signals plans for fresh fundraising, while speculation over potential executive changes at Walt Disney grows ahead of its upcoming quarterly results.
Futures edge lower
U.S. equity index futures moved lower on Monday, pointing to a continuation of last session’s losses at the start of the new trading week.
As of 03:11 ET (08:11 GMT), Dow futures were down 323 points, or 0.7%, S&P 500 futures had declined 62 points, or 0.9%, and Nasdaq 100 futures were lower by 291 points, or 1.1%.
Market participants are closely watching a heavy slate of upcoming corporate earnings alongside a new monthly jobs report. Together, these releases could shed light on the health of the U.S. economy and test the resilience of a stock market rally now in its fourth year.
Beyond ongoing questions over the durability of the artificial intelligence-driven rally, investors are also weighing the implications of President Donald Trump’s nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve Chair. If confirmed by the Senate, Warsh would bring his long-held calls for a shift in the monetary policy framework to the world’s most influential central bank.
Gold and silver extend their selloff
A sharp decline in both gold and silver, continuing the historic drop seen on Friday, weighed heavily on market sentiment—especially in Asia, where equities broadly fell.
Following a nearly 10% plunge late last week, spot gold fell another 4.9% to $4,626.80 per ounce by 03:27 ET, slipping well below the $5,000 mark it had just recently surpassed. Silver, which had benefited from speculative interest and industrial demand, also faced selling pressure but had somewhat stabilized around $79 an ounce as of 03:30 ET.
Analysts attribute the metals’ losses to a stronger U.S. dollar and widespread profit-taking after their significant rally in recent months.
Investors also showed concern about Kevin Warsh’s potentially hawkish stance in the long term. Although Warsh—formerly a Federal Reserve governor—has supported President Trump’s calls for sharply lower interest rates, he has been critical of the Fed’s asset purchase programs.
“Warsh is viewed as the most inflation-focused candidate for the Fed chair, reducing the chances of aggressive monetary easing. This sparked a wave of selling, with gold enduring its steepest decline in four decades,” ANZ analysts noted.
Bitcoin continues to decline
The risk-averse mood extended to cryptocurrencies, with Bitcoin dropping over 2% to $76,892.4. On Saturday, the leading digital currency fell below the $80,000 mark, continuing its decline from Friday. Some investors worried that Kevin Warsh might support shrinking the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet, which could reduce liquidity in the financial system.
Larger Fed balance sheets have historically supported cryptocurrencies by injecting cash into money markets, providing backing for riskier assets.
This latest slide marks another downturn for Bitcoin since reaching its all-time high last October. Once buoyed by optimism over increased cash flows and a friendlier regulatory environment under Trump, the token has now lost about one-third of its value.
With turmoil spreading across stocks, commodities, and crypto, Jonas Goltermann, Deputy Chief Markets Economist at Capital Economics, described the past few days as “unusually hectic […] for financial markets” in a recent note.
Oracle announces plans for new fundraising
On Sunday evening, Oracle Corporation announced plans to raise new capital in 2026 to support the expansion of its AI and cloud infrastructure amid rising demand for computing power.
The company aims to generate between $45 billion and $50 billion in gross proceeds during 2026, utilizing a mix of debt and equity financing.
About half of the funds will come from a combination of equity derivatives and common stock, according to a company statement.
Oracle plans to raise its debt funding through a single, one-time issuance of investment-grade senior unsecured bonds in early 2026, with no additional debt expected afterward.
Analysts at Vital Knowledge highlighted that roughly half of the total funding will come from equity-linked securities, including a $20 billion at-the-market (ATM) common equity program.
They noted, “Oracle’s $20 billion ATM offering is the first time a major tech company has been compelled to raise equity since the AI boom began. If this signals a shift toward greater fiscal caution in the industry, it could lead to a slower overall pace of spending.”
Disney set to release earnings
Walt Disney is set to release its earnings before the opening bell on Monday.
While the company’s continued focus on its streaming services, alongside its vital parks and studios divisions, will be closely watched, much of the attention may center on leadership succession.
According to the Wall Street Journal, Disney CEO Bob Iger has informed colleagues that he intends to step down and reduce his day-to-day involvement before his contract expires on December 31.
Board members are expected to convene soon to decide on Iger’s successor, with several media outlets naming Experiences division head Josh D’Amaro as the likely frontrunner.
As January 2026 draws to a close, FX markets find themselves at a pivotal juncture, shaped by diverging central bank policies and evolving technical signals. After delivering a cumulative 175 basis points of rate cuts since September 2024, the Federal Reserve now faces a critical inflection point. Meanwhile, the European Central Bank has wrapped up its easing cycle, and the Bank of Japan appears poised to begin its first substantive tightening phase in decades.
Together, these dynamics have fueled sustained U.S. dollar weakness—a trend that looks set to continue as U.S. economic growth moderates and investor confidence deteriorates.
From a technical standpoint, the dollar is underperforming against its major counterparts and is trading near multi-month lows. In this outlook, we examine the greenback’s performance versus USD/JPY, EUR/USD, and GBP/USD, incorporating both fundamental drivers and technical considerations.
USD/JPY – Weekly Timeframe
USD/JPY is currently trading in the mid-150s after failing to sustain gains near the 160 region, where price action appears to have formed a double-top structure. While the pair continues to find support along a rising trend line in place since January 2021, bearish RSI divergence has intensified, signaling potential downside risk for the U.S. dollar in the months ahead.
Key resistance remains near 160, while a support base is evident in the 148–150 zone. A decisive weekly close below this area would strengthen the bearish outlook, potentially opening the door toward the 138 level and aligning with the broader theme of ongoing dollar selling.
EUR/USD – Weekly Timeframe
EUR/USD is currently trading near a key resistance zone around 1.19. This area carries both psychological significance and technical importance, representing a measured move based on Fibonacci projections. With no evident bearish divergence at present, the possibility of a sustained break above 1.20 cannot be dismissed. Such a move would likely open the path toward the 1.30 level over the coming months, in line with the broader outlook of continued U.S. dollar weakness.
GBP/USD – Daily Timeframe
Sterling’s advance against the U.S. dollar appears to be driven more by dollar weakness than by underlying pound strength. JP Morgan strategist Nelligan cautions that any meaningful outperformance in sterling is more likely to materialize in the first half of the year, with fiscal concerns potentially resurfacing in the second half.
GBP/USD projections align with the broader bearish-dollar theme outlined in this report, with the Sigmacast ensemble from Sigmanomics’ classical models pointing to higher levels over the medium term. From a technical perspective, the pair has recently pulled back after closing above a key descending trend line that had capped upside since early 2025.
EUR/USD began a renewed downturn after failing to hold above 1.2080.
The pair slipped below a crucial bullish trend line, with prior support located around 1.1880 on the 4-hour chart.
EUR/USD Technical Outlook
On the 4-hour timeframe, EUR/USD broke beneath an important ascending trend line at 1.1880, triggering the latest leg lower. Price action also moved below the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the rally from the 1.1577 swing low to the 1.2083 peak.
Near-term support is seen around 1.1820, aligning with the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the same upward move. A stronger support zone for buyers could emerge near the 1.1800 level.
The key support level is positioned at 1.1770. A break below this zone could expose EUR/USD to a test of the 200-period simple moving average (green, 4-hour), followed by the 100-period simple moving average (red, 4-hour).
On the upside, any renewed advance is likely to encounter resistance near 1.1910. The first major obstacle for buyers stands around 1.1940, with an additional barrier near 1.1960. A decisive close above 1.1960 would strengthen the bullish case and potentially pave the way for a move back toward the 1.2080 area.
The U.S. jobs report, ISM PMI data, and another round of AI-driven tech earnings will be in the spotlight this week. Alphabet is poised to deliver robust results and upbeat guidance, making it an attractive buy. Meanwhile, Strategy heads into a difficult week as Bitcoin volatility and concerns over its BTC holdings weigh on the stock.
Wall Street stocks closed lower on Friday after President Donald Trump nominated former Federal Reserve Governor Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair. Sharp sell-offs in gold and silver prices further unsettled markets.
Despite Friday’s pullback, the major U.S. stock indexes ended the month higher. The Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 posted January gains of 1.1% and 1.2%, respectively, while the Nasdaq Composite rose 1%. Small caps outperformed, with the Russell 2000 climbing more than 4% for the month.
Volatility may pick up in the days ahead as investors weigh the outlook for economic growth, inflation, interest rates, and corporate earnings.
The key economic release will be Friday’s January U.S. jobs report, which is expected to show payroll growth of 67,000, with the unemployment rate unchanged at 4.4%. Ahead of that, the ISM manufacturing and services PMI readings will also be in focus.
A busy earnings calendar is also on tap, featuring reports from several major companies. These include “Magnificent Seven” members Alphabet and Amazon (NASDAQ: AMZN), along with AI-focused leaders Palantir Technologies (NASDAQ: PLTR) and Advanced Micro Devices (NASDAQ: AMD). Other high-profile reporters include Eli Lilly, Novo Nordisk, Pfizer, PepsiCo, Walt Disney, PayPal, Uber, Reddit, Roblox, Snap, Qualcomm, and Super Micro Computer.
Meanwhile, the federal government entered another shutdown on Saturday, though it is expected to be resolved by Monday.
No matter how markets move, I outline below one stock that could attract buying interest and another that may face renewed downside pressure. Keep in mind that this outlook applies only to the week ahead, from Monday, February 2, through Friday, February 6.
Buy Call: Alphabet
Alphabet goes into its quarterly earnings release with expectations for an upside surprise on both profit and revenue, driven by two key growth engines: a rebound in advertising and rising AI-driven contributions across Search, YouTube, and Google Cloud.
The company is set to report fourth-quarter results after the market closes on Wednesday at 4:00 p.m. ET. Options markets are pricing in a potential move of about ±6.4%, with positioning tilted to the upside as roughly 80% of whisper estimates point to a beat.
Earnings forecasts have been raised 29 times in recent weeks, compared with just five downward revisions, underscoring increasing confidence in Alphabet’s earnings outlook.
Wall Street expects Alphabet to deliver earnings of $2.64 per share, up 21.8% from a year earlier, while revenue is projected to rise 15.7% year over year to $111.1 billion. Cloud remains a standout performer, with Google Cloud Platform revenue forecast to grow more than 37% annually, driven by robust demand for AI infrastructure and enterprise offerings.
A meaningful earnings beat, paired with upbeat forward guidance, could propel the stock to fresh record highs as the search giant continues to unlock monetization from its expanding suite of AI initiatives and builds on accelerating cloud momentum.
GOOGL shares are trading near their 52-week high of $342.29 and remain above the 50-day moving average at $317.97. The stock is up about 8% year to date and has gained 66.3% over the past 12 months. From a technical perspective, the shares have held up well, consolidating above key support near $325 and setting up for a potential breakout above $350 if earnings exceed expectations.
Trade Setup:
Entry: $338–$340 (ahead of earnings)
Target: $350–$355 (approximately 5% upside)
Stop-Loss: $330 (around 2.4% downside risk)
Sell Call: Strategy
Strategy heads into its earnings release under markedly different conditions. The Michael Saylor–led company, which has transformed itself into the world’s largest corporate holder of Bitcoin, is facing mounting pressure as cryptocurrency markets turn volatile.
The firm holds roughly 712,647 Bitcoin, accumulated at an average cost of about $76,037 per coin, representing more than $54 billion at recent market prices. Over the weekend, however, Bitcoin fell below Strategy’s average purchase price for the first time since October 2023, pushing the company’s holdings into an unrealized loss position and heightening investor concerns.
Strategy is scheduled to report its fourth-quarter earnings after the market closes on Thursday at 4:20 p.m. ET.
Wall Street is forecasting a loss of $0.08 per share on revenue of $118.8 million, though investors’ attention will center less on the core figures and more on the company’s Bitcoin treasury and any related impairment charges.
In the third quarter of 2025, the company booked a massive $17.44 billion in unrealized losses tied to cryptocurrency price declines, and the prospect of similar write-downs could pressure fourth-quarter results as well.
Even with the stock trading at an estimated 0.7x the value of its Bitcoin holdings, Strategy’s elevated beta of 3.4 magnifies downside exposure in a risk-off market environment.
MSTR shares have plunged 55.3% over the past year and are currently trading around $149.71, just above their 52-week low of $139.36. From a technical standpoint, the stock has fallen below both its 50-day and 200-day moving averages, while momentum indicators point to oversold conditions without signaling a decisive reversal.
Elevated short interest and negative sentiment leave the shares vulnerable to additional downside, particularly if the earnings report points to slower Bitcoin accumulation or greater dilution from further capital-raising efforts.
Solana extended its sell-off on Monday after posting a decline of more than 15% in the previous week.
Derivatives data continues to reinforce the bearish move, with short positioning increasing and funding rates turning negative.
From a technical standpoint, a decisive close below $100 would likely open the door to a deeper correction.
Solana (SOL) extended its correction on Monday, trading below $100 after shedding more than 15% the previous week. The bearish price action is reinforced by derivatives indicators, which show increasing short positions and negative funding rates. From a technical perspective, a daily close below $100 could pave the way for a deeper correction in SOL.
Derivatives data points to a deeper correction
Derivatives data for Solana continues to support a bearish outlook. Coinglass OI-weighted funding rate data indicates that traders positioning for further downside in SOL now outnumber those expecting a rebound.
The metric turned negative on Saturday and stands at -0.0080% as of Monday, meaning short positions are paying longs—a clear signal of bearish sentiment toward Solana.
Additionally, Coinglass’s long-to-short ratio for SOL stood at 0.97 on Monday. A reading below 1.0 indicates bearish market sentiment, reflecting that a greater number of traders are positioned for further downside in Solana’s price.
Weakening institutional demand
Institutional demand for Solana softened last week. Data from SoSoValue shows that spot Solana ETFs recorded $2.45 million in net outflows, marking the first weekly withdrawals since their launch. If these outflows persist or accelerate, SOL may face additional downside pressure.
Solana Price Outlook: SOL falls below $100
Solana was rejected at weekly resistance near $126.65 on Wednesday and went on to fall more than 15% through Sunday, breaking below the key $100 psychological level. As of Monday, SOL is trading around $99.60.
A daily close below $100 could extend the decline toward the April 7 low at $95.26. A sustained move below that level may open the door to further losses toward the January 23, 2024 low near $79.
On the momentum front, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the daily chart is at 25, signaling deeply oversold conditions and strong bearish momentum. Meanwhile, the MACD remains bearish after a crossover on January 19, with expanding red histogram bars below the zero line, reinforcing the negative technical outlook.
Conversely, a recovery could see SOL move back toward the weekly resistance at $126.65.
Months after the October 10 liquidation cascade, crypto market depth has yet to fully recover, while debate continues over Binance’s role as Bitcoin’s sell-off persists.
Key points to know:
Liquidity across major crypto markets remains thin and fragmented following the Oct. 10 crash. Wider bid-ask spreads and weakened order books are being cited as key factors behind Bitcoin’s decline from around $125,000.
Binance has denied allegations that an internal malfunction triggered the crash. However, critics argue that the exchange’s limited transparency has contributed to growing distrust and fueled speculation and conspiracy theories.
Market makers and industry leaders say the episode highlighted deeper structural vulnerabilities in crypto markets, particularly shallow liquidity and heavy dependence on leverage. Many stress that the issue extends beyond any single platform and may justify regulatory-style oversight of market structure.
At first glance, the $19 billion liquidity wipeout on October 10 appeared to be a familiar event: a rapid cascade of liquidations across major crypto exchanges as Bitcoin, the world’s largest cryptocurrency, plunged sharply.
What followed—and the continued lack of transparency surrounding the day’s events—has made the episode far more consequential. The sell-off became the largest single-day liquidation by dollar value in crypto history, leaving traders frustrated and fundamentally reshaping how crypto markets are viewed. At the center of the controversy is one name: Binance.
For many market participants, the world’s largest crypto exchange has become the symbol of the crash, which saw Bitcoin drop by as much as 12.5%, its steepest decline in 14 months. The move triggered widespread forced closures of leveraged positions as margin levels were breached across exchanges.
Whether due to Binance’s sheer size, its dominance in derivatives trading, or the limited clarity around what exactly transpired, the exchange has faced persistent accusations on social media, with many claiming it played a central role in the Oct. 10 event—now widely referred to as “10/10.” Binance continues to deny responsibility, maintaining that the liquidations were not caused by an internal failure. The company did not respond to a request for comment from CoinDesk for this article.
In the absence of a clearly established narrative, it is unsurprising that traders remain unsettled.
In the months since the crash, market liquidity has remained noticeably impaired. Order books have not fully recovered, market depth remains uneven, and bid-ask spreads have widened. Many traders argue that this weakened market structure accelerated Bitcoin’s decline from around $124,800 to $80,000 and further eroded confidence across the market.
Adding to the debate, Ark Invest CEO Cathie Wood has publicly weighed in, attributing Bitcoin’s continued weakness to what she described as a “Binance software glitch.”
Why Binance has re-emerged at the center of the debate
Wood said in a late-January appearance on Fox Business that the alleged glitch triggered approximately $28 billion in deleveraging.
In response, Binance co-founder He Yi pushed back online, emphasizing that Binance does not serve U.S. customers, though the post was later removed.
Rival platforms were quick to capitalize on the moment. Star Xu, founder of competing exchange OXK, said the October 10 event caused “real and lasting damage to the industry.” While he did not name Binance directly, the remarks were widely viewed as an implicit criticism of the exchange’s role in the episode.
At the same time, challengers such as the decentralized exchange Hyperliquid pointed to rising derivatives volumes and improving liquidity depth, positioning themselves as credible alternatives as Binance continues to grapple with reputational pressure.
Binance has reiterated that the October 10 event was not caused by an internal system failure.
Speaking during a Friday ask-me-anything session, co-founder and former CEO Changpeng “CZ” Zhao dismissed claims that Binance triggered the crash as “far-fetched.”
According to the company, the sell-off was driven by broader market forces, including macroeconomic pressures, excessive leverage, thin liquidity, and congestion on the Ethereum network. Binance said its core systems remained fully operational throughout the episode and that it paid approximately $283 million in compensation to affected users.
“A slap in the face”
For some market participants, Binance’s explanation has fallen short—particularly given the sheer scale of the liquidations. The $19 billion figure has taken on disproportionate symbolic significance, with Binance’s compensation payments often viewed less as meaningful restitution and more as a small fraction of the overall damage.
“This is a f***ing joke,” wrote the pseudonymous Bitcoin Realist on X. “You… liquidated $19 billion on 10/10 alone… This is like spitting in our faces.”
That frustration reflects more than outrage over a single bout of volatility. For many traders, October 10 has come to represent a deeper mistrust of crypto market structure itself.
Still, not everyone believes Binance should bear the blame.
“10/10 was very obviously not a ‘software glitch,’” wrote Evgeny Gaevoy, CEO of market maker Wintermute, on X. “It was a flash crash in a highly leveraged market during an illiquid Friday night, driven by macro news.”
He added: “Finding a scapegoat is comfortable, but pinning this on one exchange is intellectually dishonest.”
The underlying argument is straightforward: crypto markets remain heavily dependent on leverage, and liquidity is often conditional rather than continuous. During periods of stress, market makers widen spreads or withdraw altogether. In such thin conditions, liquidation cascades can quickly accelerate.
While Binance was the largest venue where the crash unfolded, it was not necessarily the origin of the shock itself.
A lack of transparency continues to fuel speculation
What remains absent is a formal public review and an authoritative account of what happened. Critics argue that without a thorough, transparent inquiry, speculation is free to grow unchecked.
Salman Banaei, a former regulator at the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), has suggested that the events of October 10 merit regulatory scrutiny, even without any allegation of wrongdoing.
“Whether you love or hate crypto, there should be a regulatory investigation into Oct. 10, 2025,” Banaei wrote, drawing a comparison to the May 6, 2010 stock market flash crash. “One benefit of regulation is that the mere possibility of such investigations acts as a deterrent to manipulation.”
He emphasized that he was not asserting manipulation took place, but rather highlighting a broader structural issue: crypto markets lack the formal post-event reviews that traditional financial markets routinely conduct after systemic disruptions.
Meanwhile, a trader known as Flood suggested that a major exchange had been steadily selling altcoins since 10/10, a claim that has fueled conspiracy theories around excess inventory.
Whether accurate or not, such narratives tend to gain traction when liquidity dries up and market confidence weakens.
The real problem lies in market depth, not a single exchange
October 10 may ultimately be remembered less for the scale of the liquidations and more for what it exposed about crypto market structure.
In bull markets, order books appear deep, leverage accumulates quietly, and liquidity feels plentiful. Bear markets reveal the opposite reality: liquidity evaporates, market makers pull back, volatility becomes concentrated, and the next shock breaks through far faster than expected.
Reflecting on the comparison with the FTX collapse in 2022, Mike Silagadze, CEO of Ether.fi, wrote on X that “this feels far worse than the post-FTX environment. In some ways, fundamentals are stronger than ever, yet price action has virtually no bids.”
Binance has become the most convenient scapegoat—not necessarily because it caused the crash, but because it is the largest and most visible exchange, making it an obvious target.
The more fundamental problem, however, is structural. Crypto market liquidity remains heavily reliant on leverage, conditional market making, and confidence—all of which have steadily eroded over the past four months.
As Eric Crown, a former options trader at NYSE Arca, put it: “I don’t know if Binance deliberately played a role in wrecking the market in October. I’d lean toward the obvious explanation: excessive leverage, insufficient liquidity, and largely ineffective or unwanted altcoin ‘technologies’ created the conditions for a massacre—and that’s exactly what happened.”
Bitcoin fell below $75,000 on Monday, sliding to its lowest level in nearly ten months.
Momentum indicators continue to weaken, pointing to intensifying bearish pressure and reinforcing the deteriorating technical outlook.
From a technical perspective, price action suggests Bitcoin could retest the $70,000 psychological support if selling pressure persists.
Bitcoin (BTC) slipped below the $75,000 level on Monday after posting an almost 11% decline over the previous week, falling to its lowest level in nearly ten months. Market momentum has decisively turned bearish, with technical indicators signaling the potential for further downside toward the $70,000 support zone.
Bitcoin may retest the $70,000 level if the correction extends
Bitcoin extended its sell-off at the start of the week, falling more than 2% on Monday after a decline of over 11% the previous week. At the time of writing, BTC is trading below $75,000, a level not seen since early April.
If Bitcoin maintains its downward trajectory, the correction could deepen toward the next major psychological support at $70,000.
On the daily chart, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is hovering near 21, signaling strong bearish momentum and deeply oversold conditions. In addition, the MACD produced a bearish crossover on January 20, which remains in place, with expanding red histogram bars below the zero line—further reinforcing the negative technical outlook.
BTC/USDT daily chart
Conversely, a recovery could see Bitcoin push toward the key psychological level at $80,000.
More than $700 million in liquidations over the past 24 hours
Bitcoin slid to levels not seen since early April, triggering a sharp wave of liquidations across the crypto market. More than $700 million in leveraged positions were wiped out over the past 24 hours, according to Coinglass.
Long positions accounted for 77.39% of the liquidations, highlighting the market’s overly bullish positioning. The single largest liquidation occurred on Hyperliquid, where a BTCUSD position worth $15.46 million was forcibly closed. Ethereum (ETH) also experienced significant pressure, with nearly $270 million liquidated in the last 24 hours.
Traders should remain cautious, as continued price weakness could spark further liquidations, particularly among highly leveraged participants.
Long EUR/USD after a daily close above 1.1866, resulting in a 0.24% loss.
Long Silver, which ended with a loss of 18.62%.
Long Gold after a daily close above $5,000, producing a 2.26% loss.
Taken together, these positions generated a total loss of 21.12%, or 7.04% per asset. While this was a sizable drawdown, the broader performance of my weekly forecasts over recent weeks remains positive, as earlier gains were exceptionally strong and more than offset this setback.
Key market data from last week:
U.S. Federal Reserve policy meeting: No surprises, with interest rates left unchanged.
U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI): The standout data release of the week. Inflation came in far hotter than expected, with headline PPI rising 0.5% month-on-month and core PPI increasing 0.7%, versus forecasts of just 0.2% for both. This reinforced a more hawkish Fed outlook, lifted the U.S. dollar, and accelerated the sharp reversal in Silver (and Gold). As a result, expectations for a second U.S. rate cut in 2026 were pushed back to October.
Bank of Canada policy meeting: No change to interest rates, as anticipated.
Australian CPI: Inflation exceeded expectations, with an annual rate of 3.8% versus 3.5% forecast, strengthening the case for possible RBA rate hikes and supporting the Australian dollar early in the week.
Canadian GDP: Slightly weaker than expected, showing zero month-on-month growth.
U.S. unemployment claims: In line with forecasts.
While PPI and Australian inflation influenced market moves, two broader developments likely had an even greater impact:
Federal Reserve leadership: President Trump announced his nominee for the next Fed Chair, Kevin Warsh. Although regarded as a hawk, Warsh is now thought to favor lower interest rates. The nomination contributed to the collapse of the Silver rally and provided additional support to the U.S. dollar.
Geopolitical tensions: The U.S. continued its military buildup near Iran, raising the risk of a wider regional conflict. Polymarket currently assigns a high probability to a U.S. strike on Iran in March, despite President Trump still referencing the possibility of a diplomatic agreement. These tensions appear to be supporting crude oil prices, with WTI crude reaching a new four-month high last week.
Meanwhile, the S&P 500 briefly pushed to a fresh record above 7,000. Although the index remains resilient, upside momentum is limited. In my view, a clearer resolution to U.S.–Iran tensions is needed before a more decisive directional move can develop.
The Week Ahead: 2nd – 6th February
The most significant data releases for the coming week, ranked by expected market impact, include:
U.S. Average Hourly Earnings and Non-Farm Payrolls
Preliminary University of Michigan Inflation Expectations
European Central Bank main refinancing rate decision and monetary policy statement
Bank of England official bank rate decision, voting breakdown, and monetary policy report
Reserve Bank of Australia cash rate decision, rate statement, and monetary policy statement
U.S. JOLTS job openings
Preliminary University of Michigan consumer sentiment
U.S. ISM services PMI
U.S. ISM manufacturing PMI
U.S. unemployment rate
New Zealand unemployment rate
Canadian unemployment rate
U.S. weekly unemployment claims
This will be a particularly busy and potentially market-moving week, with three major central banks delivering policy decisions. Please note that Friday is a public holiday in New Zealand, which may reduce liquidity in related markets.
Monthly Forecast February 2025
For the month of January 2026, I forecasted that the USD/JPY currency pair would rise in value. Unfortunately, this was a losing trade.
For the month of February, I forecast that the EUR/USD currency pair will rise in value.
Weekly Forecast 2nd February 2026
Last week, three currency crosses experienced unusually high volatility, prompting the following weekly trade forecasts:
Short NZD/JPY, which resulted in a 0.57% loss.
Short AUD/JPY, ending with a 0.32% loss.
Short NZD/CAD, producing a 0.39% loss.
Overall, the Swiss franc and the New Zealand dollar emerged as the strongest major currencies of the week, while the U.S. dollar was the weakest. Market conditions were relatively subdued, with directional volatility dropping sharply—only 11% of major currency pairs and crosses moved by more than 1% over the week.
Technical Analysis
Key Support/Resistance Levels for Popular Pairs
US Dollar Index
Last week, the U.S. Dollar Index formed a notably large bullish pin bar, rejecting a fresh four-year low. On its own, this price action is bullish. However, the broader technical structure remains bearish, with the index still trading below its levels from 13 and 26 weeks ago. As a result, the technical outlook for the U.S. dollar is mixed.
The nomination of Kevin Warsh as Federal Reserve Chair provided some support to the dollar during the week. Nevertheless, the forward outlook remains uncertain, and I believe the most attractive trading opportunities in the near term are likely to be independent of U.S. dollar direction.
EUR/USD
The EUR/USD pair recently staged a strong long-term bullish breakout as the U.S. dollar accelerated lower and printed a new 3.5-year low. However, the move quickly failed, with price retreating sharply and finding minimal follow-through support.
This price action suggests the breakout may have been a temporary spike, although the potential for a sustained bullish trend should not be dismissed, as EUR/USD has historically shown a tendency to trend cleanly once momentum is established.
That said, the appointment of a new Fed Chair and the renewed strength in the U.S. dollar late in the week—driven by hotter inflation data—argue for a more cautious stance.
Accordingly, I would only consider a long position following a daily (New York close) above 1.2039.
WTI Crude Oil
WTI crude oil has surged strongly in recent sessions as the risk of a regional conflict centered on Iran has intensified. Prediction markets are currently assigning a high probability to a U.S. strike on Iran in March, a scenario that could significantly disrupt global crude supply. Against this backdrop, prices pushed to a new four-month high by the end of last week, with a daily close above $66.25 marking a potential six-month high.
However, two important cautions should be noted:
While a daily close above $66.25 would typically attract trend-following buying, the current moving average structure does not confirm a bullish setup. Even in the event of military conflict, the move could prove to be a short-lived spike, especially if a rapid U.S. victory follows, potentially resulting in a failed breakout.
Unlike recent Democratic administrations, the Trump administration is likely to take aggressive steps to suppress crude oil prices, which could cap or reverse upside momentum.
Bitcoin
BTC/USD has finally completed a decisive bearish breakdown below the long-term support zone just above $81,000. Price is now firmly established beneath this level and has pushed to a new nine-month low, a development that is technically significant and clearly bearish.
While equities and precious metals have rallied strongly in recent months, Bitcoin peaked at a record high several months ago and has since trended steadily lower. This divergence highlights a broader downturn across the crypto sector, with Bitcoin now showing clear signs of structural weakness.
Despite early expectations that Bitcoin would fundamentally reshape global finance, real-world adoption remains limited outside parts of Africa. Practical usability is still constrained, and its underlying value proposition remains uncertain.
Although I generally avoid short-selling, Bitcoin appears entrenched in a long-term bearish trend. I would not consider buying at current levels. Short positions may be worth considering, but only with strict risk management, as shorting is best suited to experienced traders.
XAG/USD
Silver experienced an exceptionally volatile week, surging more than 15% to hit a new all-time high and the long-discussed $120 options target, before suffering a dramatic reversal. The sell-off unfolded sharply on Thursday and Friday—particularly Friday—when prices plunged 28% in a single session.
I had previously cautioned that the move was highly vulnerable to a sharp correction, and that while a long position was justified, it should be taken with a reduced position size.
The sheer magnitude of the collapse, even with some bullish undertones and modest resilience in the bounce from the weekly lows, strongly suggests that another record high is unlikely in the near term. This extraordinary rally appears to be finished, and the most probable next phase is a period of erratic consolidation, marked by large swings and gradually diminishing volatility.
XAU/USD
Much of the analysis above regarding Silver also applies to Gold. That said, gold’s volatility was noticeably lower, and its price action showed greater resilience at the lows.
While gold is also likely to enter a period of sideways consolidation, the underlying structure suggests it may recover to the upside more quickly than silver.
Bottom Line
My preferred trade for the coming week is:
Long EUR/USD, contingent on a daily (New York) close above 1.2039.
THE ETERNAL SOVEREIGN 